Realignment talk not going away

[Lowcountry Hog 266]

1 hour ago, Longboard Horn said:

That’s the craziest thing I’ve read on this board…

 

Who said anything about Texas deserving to join the SEC?  We let them y’all in because the one hole in our tailgating rotation was brisket and Aggy has fallen woefully short in that area.  
 

Still at a loss why OU is coming.  Lack of firewater?  

 

[Huckleberry 32711]

9 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Didn't aggy technically finish 4 last year after the CFP? Doesn't mean shit to me, but for that stat, I think it does?

 

7 minutes ago, utee94 said:

They were not selected to the CFP so they didn't finish in the Top 4.

However, I believe at least one of the polls voted them in the Top 4 after the CFP finals were complete.

So, it depends on your definition and perspective.

Correct. I did the original research and it was based on national playoffs (baseball, basketball tournaments, CFP) unless there wasn't one at the time and then final polls. So CFP takes the place of final football polls starting in 2014. The last three schools were Northwestern, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech. But then Tech was one of the last 4 teams at the CWS in 2019.

[Surly Bevo 24726]

What time we supposed to be SEC?

[clapclapclap 9000]

24 minutes ago, n64ra said:

Has Lowell Galindo been on? Saw him in River Place last night, and he looked a little rough.

On a more serious note, Mark Packer, the host of SiriusXM's afternoon show on their college sports channel, seems to be having a rough fight with Covid. 

Until Tuesday the mostly daily tweeter didn't post anything for a week and a half.  Says he was fully vaccinated in March and April.

Edited July 29, 2021 by clapclapclap

[hook me 2082]

2 hours ago, 'stache said:

That's my point, if the buyout money goes away and there's only 2-4 "leftovers," then yeah, maybe. But the articles are implying that ESPN is trying to talk the leftovers into joining the AAC now to kill the buyout. That makes zero sense. They need to be trying to help OSU, Tech, KU, ISU, WVU, and maybe even KSU, find a P4 home, not colluding with the AAC. Only Baylor and TCU seem to be a shoo-in for the AAC, maybe KSU. The rest have good arguments for P4 invites.

KU basketball has a good argument for a P4 invite. Maybe you could reason that WVU with it's rivalries vs. PITT & VT along with basketball being relevant & football being somewhat relevant also has a decent argument for an ACC invite. The rest do not. With Beard gone the rest of the teams offer nothing in terms of sustained success, fan support, or intrigue to even approach a P4 invite. The only hope any of the rest have is based on the Pac12 being so desperate to get into the Central Time Zone that they overpay OSU &/or TTU. That's it. You can hope & pray that the Pac12 invite comes (good luck considering that's the only other conference that rivals the Big 12 in terms of shitty leadership) or you can join the AAC & look to re-negotiate their TV deal with ESPN & hope to get enough money to make you feel good about yourself.

[Gidnik 3251]

1 minute ago, Surly Bevo said:

What time we supposed to be SEC?

Meeting is at 3 I think 

['stache 21778]

2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

 

Correct. I did the original research and it was based on national playoffs (baseball, basketball tournaments, CFP) unless there wasn't one at the time and then final polls. So CFP takes the place of final football polls starting in 2014. The last three schools were Northwestern, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech. But then Tech was one of the last 4 teams at the CWS in 2019.

Tech was removed from the list earlier when they made the basketball finals in 2018 or 2017. 

The stat should probably be changed to "unanimous top 4 finish" in football. The AP and Coaches Poll moved aggy up to 4 after the playoff, but the CFP Poll I guess doesn't revote after the playoff.

[Ricky Butler 2662]

I bet the moral victories just mean more in the SEC. Looking forward to feeling less shame after losses.

[Horn Dog 9690]

14 hours ago, RaysBoomBoomRoom said:

So we just pay the buyout then?

If they really want to play hard ball, we should just send UTEP's team (as a branch of The University of Texas) to play our remaining B12 games while our other branch (UTA) plays in the SEC.  Or they can keep fucking around and find out what 'sovereign immunity' means. 

[Huckleberry 32711]

Just now, hook me said:

KU basketball has a good argument for a P4 invite. Maybe you could reason that WVU with it's rivalries vs. PITT & VT along with basketball being relevant & football being somewhat relevant also has a decent argument for an ACC invite. The rest do not. With Beard gone the rest of the teams offer nothing in terms of sustained success, fan support, or intrigue to even approach a P4 invite. The only hope any of the rest have is based on the Pac12 being so desperate to get into the Central Time Zone that they overpay OSU &/or TTU. That's it. You can hope & pray that the Pac12 invite comes (good luck considering that's the only other conference that rivals the Big 12 in terms of shitty leadership) or you can join the AAC & look to re-negotiate their TV deal with ESPN & hope to get enough money to make you feel good about yourself.

This isn't accurate, really. After digging into the numbers, Oklahoma State brings eyeballs on their own. They're the clear #3 in the current Big 12. I would like to look at more years of data than just 2020 to be sure, but that seems to be the case.

I'd also like to look at other conferences' data to run a comparison there. The analysis should at least be instructive because the final ratings for the schools reflect how many viewers they add to a telecast relative to their conference. The best analysis along those lines would be to run both the Big 12 and SEC from say 2003-2020 to get A&M and Missouri in each conference for 9 seasons to help clarify the data.

[DFW Horn 6118]

13 minutes ago, Hpara759 said:

It's Philo Beddoe 

Regrettably, none of our pugilists live close enough to Dickens to accommodate Doyle. Plus, it's better to save your knuckles and laugh him off.

[Skipper 6107]

I'm just now catching up reading on the Bowlsby blow up from last night.  What is the consensus on what his end game is here?   Let's assume what he said is true, that letter (or message) could have been delivered through legal channels and not public.   I'm failing to grasp how publicly going to war with ESPN is a smart move.

To the extent the messaging the irate 8 is receiving is that there is no real interest from ACC, Big 10 or Pac 12, which I'm beginning to think is the case, the absolute no brainer move for survival is doing what they just publicly accused ESPN and the AAC of doing.  They need to poach some combo of Cincy, BYU, UCF, USF, Memphis, SMU, Houston.  That results in a pretty solid conference that likely retains "power 5 status" and access to the expanded playoff.    I don't know what the AAC bylaws are but in order to make this play, you absolutely need the networks at the table and that needs to include ESPN if you are trying to maximize contract value.   So assuming at face value that ESPN was a bad actor trying to incentivize the AAC to expand (effectively collapsing the Big 12, the related contractual obligations and allowing Texas /OU to enter without exit fees), how is the strategy not to call their BS via back channels and get them to the table for YOUR expansion proposal.   What am I missing here?  Just does not seem like this was well thought out by Bowlsby and any President that authorized it.   Which would obviously be par for the course for this shit league.

[Texas Wahoo 3383]

2 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

If they really want to play hard ball, we should just send UTEP's team (as a branch of The University of Texas) to play our remaining B12 games while our other branch (UTA) plays in the SEC.  Or they can keep fucking around and find out what 'sovereign immunity' means. 

I think the SEC's football prowess is somewhat overrated, but I'm just not sure that UT Arlington is going to be able to compete in that league at this point, at least until they restart their football program.

['stache 21778]

6 minutes ago, hook me said:

KU basketball has a good argument for a P4 invite. Maybe you could reason that WVU with it's rivalries vs. PITT & VT along with basketball being relevant & football being somewhat relevant also has a decent argument for an ACC invite. The rest do not. With Beard gone the rest of the teams offer nothing in terms of sustained success, fan support, or intrigue to even approach a P4 invite. The only hope any of the rest have is based on the Pac12 being so desperate to get into the Central Time Zone that they overpay OSU &/or TTU. That's it. You can hope & pray that the Pac12 invite comes (good luck considering that's the only other conference that rivals the Big 12 in terms of shitty leadership) or you can join the AAC & look to re-negotiate their TV deal with ESPN & hope to get enough money to make you feel good about yourself.

I'll just keep reposting I guess that OSU v. ISU, OSU v. Tech, and OSU v. KSU, would have been top 10 in TV ratings in the Pac-12 last year. That's not considering the boost if we played Oregon, USC, UCLA, etc. That's value.

Not SEC or Big 10 value, but I think it's just pretty well accepted that those leagues are and will always be the most profitable. I'm not concerned if we make $10 or even $15 mil less than an SEC school, we'd still be making tens of millions of dollars instead of $10-$15 mil in the AAC.

Edited July 29, 2021 by 'stache

[n64ra 1079]

2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I'm just now catching up reading on the Bowlsby blow up from last night.  What is the consensus on what his end game is here?   Let's assume what he said is true, that letter (or message) could have been delivered through legal channels and not public.   I'm failing to grasp how publicly going to war with ESPN is a smart move.

Bowlsby is a dumbass for just last week stating re-alignment wasn't keeping him up at night. Now it is so he's going down in flames. Desperate people don't make smart moves.

Edited July 29, 2021 by n64ra

[elguapo 4583]

1 minute ago, Skipper said:

I'm just now catching up reading on the Bowlsby blow up from last night.  What is the consensus on what his end game is here?

[Huckleberry 32711]

3 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Tech was removed from the list earlier when they made the basketball finals in 2018 or 2017. 

The stat should probably be changed to "unanimous top 4 finish" in football. The AP and Coaches Poll moved aggy up to 4 after the playoff, but the CFP Poll I guess doesn't revote after the playoff.

Not really, it's consistent. Polls aren't used for basketball either. It's a Final Four appearance that's required. VCU wouldn't have been near a Top 4 finish after their Final Four run if there was another poll but there isn't for basketball. Some of the major baseball polls republish after the CWS but those aren't considered.

[clapclapclap 9000]

2 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

I think the SEC's football prowess is somewhat overrated, but I'm just not sure that UT Arlington is going to be able to compete in that league at this point, at least until they restart their football program.

There's always an Eeyore

[hook me 2082]

3 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I'll just keep reposting I guess that OSU v. ISU, OSU v. Tech, and OSU v. KSU, would have been top 10 in TV ratings in the Pac-12 last year. That's not considering the boost if we played Oregon, USC, UCLA, etc. That's value.

Not SEC or Big 10 value, but I think it's just pretty well accepted that those leagues are and will always be the most profitable. I'm not concerned if we make $10 or even $15 mil less than an SEC school, we'd still be making tens of millions of dollars instead of $10-$15 mil in the AAC.

Right, so overpay for OSU and get into the Central Time Zone. Thanks for supporting my argument.

[Guest]

28 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Didn't aggy technically finish 4 last year after the CFP? Doesn't mean shit to me, but for that stat, I think it does?

Must have missed the banner ceremony...

[Effyourcouch 125]

Just now, slorch said:

Must have missed the banner ceremony...

The UT/ousux announcement ruined it.

[Dahobbs 17468]

15 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

 

Correct. I did the original research and it was based on national playoffs (baseball, basketball tournaments, CFP) unless there wasn't one at the time and then final polls. So CFP takes the place of final football polls starting in 2014. The last three schools were Northwestern, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech. But then Tech was one of the last 4 teams at the CWS in 2019.

Tech made the march madness finals before the semifinal of the cws. 

[closetojumping 62264]

25 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Didn't aggy technically finish 4 last year after the CFP? Doesn't mean shit to me, but for that stat, I think it does?

 

11 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

 

Correct. I did the original research and it was based on national playoffs (baseball, basketball tournaments, CFP) unless there wasn't one at the time and then final polls. So CFP takes the place of final football polls starting in 2014. The last three schools were Northwestern, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech. But then Tech was one of the last 4 teams at the CWS in 2019.

 

6 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Tech was removed from the list earlier when they made the basketball finals in 2018 or 2017. 

The stat should probably be changed to "unanimous top 4 finish" in football. The AP and Coaches Poll moved aggy up to 4 after the playoff, but the CFP Poll I guess doesn't revote after the playoff.

What the fuck are you guys doing lending any credibility whatsoever to a fucking poll when the sport is settled on the field these days? Notre Dame was a final four playoff team. ATM was at home crying about only losing to Alabama by 4 touchdowns and squealing about Notre Dame bias. Notre Dame performed better against a more difficult schedule and earned a spot in the CFP. They finished in the top 4 accordingly. 

At no other point in the history of a playoff system at any level of any sport has anyone ever acknowledged legitimacy to a team's claim of finishing in the top 1, 2, 4, or 8 of a season if they didn't finish as such inside of the playoff structure where the outcomes were settled on the field, pitch or court. Why on earth anyone, much less people here, feel the need to accommodate that silliness now is beyond comprehension. 

[DFW Horn 6118]

4 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I'm just now catching up reading on the Bowlsby blow up from last night.  What is the consensus on what his end game is here?   Let's assume what he said is true, that letter (or message) could have been delivered through legal channels and not public.   I'm failing to grasp how publicly going to war with ESPN is a smart move.

To the extent the messaging the irate 8 is receiving is that there is no real interest from ACC, Big 10 or Pac 12, which I'm beginning to think is the case, the absolute no brainer move for survival is doing what they just publicly accused ESPN and the AAC of doing.  They need to poach some combo of Cincy, BYU, UCF, USF, Memphis, SMU, Houston.  That results in a pretty solid conference that likely retains "power 5 status" and access to the expanded playoff.    I don't know what the AAC bylaws are but in order to make this play, you absolutely need the networks at the table and that needs to include ESPN if you are trying to maximize contract value.   So assuming at face value that ESPN was a bad actor trying to incentivize the AAC to expand (effectively collapsing the Big 12, the related contractual obligations and allowing Texas /OU to enter without exit fees), how is the strategy not to call their BS via back channels and get them to the table for YOUR expansion proposal.   What am I missing here?  Just does not seem like this was well thought out by Bowlsby and any President that authorized it.   Which would obviously be par for the course for this shit league.

For me, the wildcard is what the networks are obligated to pay the Irate 8 next year and for the balance of the existing contract thru 2025 if they were able to add a couple of teams as a stop-gap. ESPN/FOX agreed to keep the Big 12 whole after aggy and mizery bailed with the addition of TCU & WVU. Would they do the same without their two biggest draws?

There's the rub.

['stache 21778]

4 minutes ago, hook me said:

Right, so overpay for OSU and get into the Central Time Zone. Thanks for supporting my argument.

You keep saying "overpay," I get it, every non blueblood is worthless (/sarcasm). It's not up to the PAC to pay or "overpay" it's the networks, and our ratings are better than at least half the PAC, so we can help increase revenues top to bottom based on yesterday's number crunching. 

ps I know there's more to it and if it doesn't happen then it is what it is, we're all just speculating for now based on available data.

Edited July 29, 2021 by 'stache

[Gidnik 3251]

6 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

I think the SEC's football prowess is somewhat overrated, but I'm just not sure that UT Arlington is going to be able to compete in that league at this point, at least until they restart their football program.

Perception is reality. 

[stork642 4498]

1 hour ago, BornAndRaised said:

lol

Please tell me Abbott greeted her with Dr Livingstone I presume. 

[Skipper 6107]

12 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

For me, the wildcard is what the networks are obligated to pay the Irate 8 next year and for the balance of the existing contract thru 2025 if they were able to add a couple of teams as a stop-gap. ESPN/FOX agreed to keep the Big 12 whole after aggy and mizery bailed with the addition of TCU & WVU. Would they do the same without their two biggest draws?

There's the rub.

I agree.  But if the goal is Big 12 survival they have to expand which inevitably means getting the networks to the table to negotiate this issue.  I just don't how publicly going to war with ESPN in any way is the best strategy for survival and/or the best deal to the extent they are able to survive.   I have zero issue with the threat and "cease and desist" message assuming a basis for it. I just think it should have been back channeled.   

Edited July 29, 2021 by Skipper

[jimmyjazz 45609]

2 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

See, this is completely believable. It's the best long term move for the Pac-12 but there's a reason why that league is getting rapidly passed by the SEC and Big 10.

If they went Pac-16 right now with an eastern pod of Kansas (for basketball and academics), Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech they would be in a much better long term position. They would be able to establish a Saturday night Pac-12 tradition with a game at 7:00 Eastern (best home game for that eastern pod) followed by a game at 10:30 Eastern on Fox and its channels.

Now I'm not saying this is a great solution for them, but there will be no more great solutions because Texas and Oklahoma are off the market now. This may be the best solution for them.

Yep, this is why it's important to maintain conference strength, especially in football, because when things move they move fast, and the current Pac 12 has been caught flat-footed.  There may be no optimal recovery.

[C-Man 27085]

2 hours ago, demos said:

Well, i was thinking about the rape. Big is perfect for them.

They can join the sex crimes pod with Penn State, Michigan State and Ohio State!

Edited July 29, 2021 by C-Man

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

3 hours ago, Liquor and Poker said:

 

Question I just thought of - couldn't Texas drop football if it decided to?  Isn't that its right?  Or would they say we have a duty to continue to play football, and do so against them, even if we don't want to?  I don't see how this argument is different.

Baylor would definitely try to force us to play against our will.

[Valmy77 13130]

15 minutes ago, Gidnik said:

Perception is reality. 

No. But perception can become reality, especially in a sport with recruiting.

[Valmy77 13130]

Double post

Edited July 29, 2021 by Valmy77

[Droopy 2624]

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

Out of rep but this is perfect. 
 

 

[burntorangebongos 10681]

4 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

For me, the wildcard is what the networks are obligated to pay the Irate 8 next year and for the balance of the existing contract thru 2025 if they were able to add a couple of teams as a stop-gap. ESPN/FOX agreed to keep the Big 12 whole after aggy and mizery bailed with the addition of TCU & WVU. Would they do the same without their two biggest draws?

There's the rub.

Ooh yeah. There sure is a lot of in and outs and what have yous. In the meantime, if I were an Irate8, I'd agree to take less money for 3 or 4 years, until the new conference re-negotiates with the Networks. Getting into a new P5 has to be the priority. Really fucking wild that the B1G and PAC aren't looking to expand their leagues based on all the upcoming upheaval to the sport.

Maybe they are gonna merge at some point and shake off their coattail riders and just keep their best 16 teams. Maybe that is a smart move in the long run for them. Damn. 

 

[Constant 6722]

It’s always fucking Baylor. 

[camel at sea 589]

3 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

I'm interested in the math of all this too.

Since letter sent asking admittance to SEC July 1st, 2025 -- and 2021 season all 10 teams will participate in B12 -- isn't it only 3yrs worth of B12 money that is really in question for the "Irate Eight" assuming that they somehow hold the B12 together

That's 3 football seasons -- 2022, 2023, and 2024.

And approximately $80mil buyouts each for Texas and blOU.

Found this info that includes history of some previous departures:

 

I was thinking that the contract ran through the 2025 season.  But I think you're correct on that.  If it's only three seasons, then the total amount is $480M total.  The LHN buyout would cover about 1/3rd of the total in that case.  

[Nicole44 22028]

11 minutes ago, C-Man said:

They can join the sex crimes pod with Penn, Michigan and Ohio State!

The Law and Order SVU Pod? 
 

I guess this will be Texas and OU after 3:00 pm (whatever the fuck time) this afternoon…

 

[SurlyGator 862]

2 hours ago, gernblansten said:

[Roy D] Well just how big a boy are ya? [ Mercer]

I reckon it’d be quite a tussle.

 

Learn with Gern!

[VivaNaranja 466]

Doyle:

[Steel Shank 9416]

Terry Co. > Dickens Co.

[hook me 2082]

22 minutes ago, 'stache said:

You keep saying "overpay," I get it, every non blueblood is worthless (/sarcasm). It's not up to the PAC to pay or "overpay" it's the networks, and our ratings are better than at least half the PAC, so we can help increase revenues top to bottom based on yesterday's number crunching. 

ps I know there's more to it and if it doesn't happen then it is what it is, we're all just speculating for now based on available data.

I hail from a city that is home to one of the left behind schools. I hate the potential negative impact this move will have on this city and area. These schools aren't worthless, they're just not worth as much as they think they are, & usually not even close to what they think they are. They've been attached to UT & OU so long that they've acquired a false sense of worth that would rival aggy if they were compared side by side. OSU is the 3rd best option of the left behind and they're not worth what the Pac 12 is distributing. Add to that the fact that OSU will make the Pac 12 uneven & they'll need to add another school and that makes the dilution even worse. Don't worry though, the Pac 12 has terrible leadership so there's no telling what they'll do & whatever school you're hoping will backdoor its way into a P4 conference certainly has a chance.

['stache 21778]

6 minutes ago, hook me said:

I hail from a city that is home to one of the left behind schools. I hate the potential negative impact this move will have on this city and area. These schools aren't worthless, they're just not worth as much as they think they are, & usually not even close to what they think they are. They've been attached to UT & OU so long that they've acquired a false sense of worth that would rival aggy if they were compared side by side. OSU is the 3rd best option of the left behind and they're not worth what the Pac 12 is distributing. Add to that the fact that OSU will make the Pac 12 uneven & they'll need to add another school and that makes the dilution even worse. Don't worry though, the Pac 12 has terrible leadership so there's no telling what they'll do & whatever school you're hoping will backdoor its way into a P4 conference certainly has a chance.

We're all speculating for now and I guess reality will have to prove one of us right. If we are invited and if payouts increase in the PAC, then I was right. If we are not invited, I'll admit you were right, and I already acknowledged that it's a possibility.

Edited July 29, 2021 by 'stache

[closetohumping 17410]

2 minutes ago, 'stache said:

We're all just speculating for now and I guess reality will just have to prove one of us right. If we are invited and if payouts increase in the PAC, then I was right. If we are not invited, I'll admit you were right, and I already acknowledged that it's a possibility.

How will you be invited if you can't reach out to the other conferences?

[Hiphopopotamos 20865]

[YouLoveMyPenises 79]

1 minute ago, closetohumping said:

How will you be invited if you can't reach out to the other conferences?

They'll sue their way in?

['stache 21778]

3 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

How will you be invited if you can't reach out to the other conferences?

[BornAndRaised 12223]

saw this on twitter from a ksu fan

Edited July 29, 2021 by BornAndRaised

[Welshy 907]

Love it. Tech looking off to the side: "Fuck it all, worst year ever."

Baylor Raging

[jimmyjazz 45609]

11 minutes ago, hook me said:

I hail from a city that is home to one of the left behind schools. I hate the potential negative impact this move will have on this city and area. These schools aren't worthless, they're just not worth as much as they think they are, & usually not even close to what they think they are. They've been attached to UT & OU so long that they've acquired a false sense of worth that would rival aggy if they were compared side by side. OSU is the 3rd best option of the left behind and they're not worth what the Pac 12 is distributing. Add to that the fact that OSU will make the Pac 12 uneven & they'll need to add another school and that makes the dilution even worse. Don't worry though, the Pac 12 has terrible leadership so there's no telling what they'll do & whatever school you're hoping will backdoor its way into a P4 conference certainly has a chance.

Well, I think it comes down to projection of future Pac 12 value with and without added teams.  Whatever dilution might happen tomorrow is not necessarily equivalent to what might be the case in a few years.  As I see it, the SEC is going to be the monster, the B1G will be close if they play it right, and the ACC and Pac-12 will be lucky to remain at the adult table.  Grabbing also-rans from the Big 12 should be part of that plan, because even though a given conference might be permanently weaker than the SEC and Big 12, there are more than 32-40 schools that belong in the mix. 

There will be an imbalance.  There's an imbalance now.