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Realignment talk not going away

The Tower

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Posted by Sandbagging Steve,

How many teams will be left when the dust settles in a few years? I think there's a way for all the teams to still have some involvement. I will explain that at the end of this list. Here's my list of the top 32 programs and a list if it goes to 48. There's some debate if it goes to 48, but not much debate if it stops at 32. I guess one could debate Arizona State, but that's about it. The top 32 at least come close to carrying their own weight. Everyone below that line is losing money for t

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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11784

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11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yes, seriously.  UCF, WV and Cincy have to stay together.  Making WV/BYU take trips to the other side of the country is asinine.  

BYU is kinda fucked because Houston -> Provo is 1400 miles but there's no good option.  

Morgantown -> Provo is 2,000 miles and 2 time zones away

Morgantown -> Orlando is 900 miles

Lubbock -> Provo is 870 miles

Lubbock -> Orlando is 1500 miles

Travel distance was always Burton's rallying cry for leaving the Big 12 and joining the SEC. Our farthest divisional game would potentially be Mizzou or Auburn. 

Columbia Missouri to Austin : 776 miles

Auburn Alabama to Austin : 850 miles 

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Aggy should abstain so the vote is 13-0 and then we can then brand it on their dog.

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Gidnik

Gidnik 3475

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, thunderlounge said:

 

The money is there. The only question left unanswered is how much money will be in the bag when we drop it, and our nut sack, on the table as we throw 2 fingers in the air and walk out.

 

Gor  isn’t about money, it’s about the rights to all of our home game

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4 hours ago, Not a Sock said:

Notice how there has been tons of articles with Big12 sources and little 8 ADs and Presidents giving statements, but not a fucking word from anyone inside UT/OU and the SEC.

I noticed.

2023 works logistically for a lot of reasons.  Shit rolls downhill and its got to move to the Big 12, AAC and then CUSA/Sun Belt.  But there is no way it is 2025.  And I can't see us waiting until the CBS SEC contract expires in 2024.

As fast as the Big 12 has moved, however, I think it probably is 2022.

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3 hours ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

I think it makes more sense to expand east rather than west. The west coast doesn't seem to care much about college football and the Big 12 already has WVU. Having said that, if you take BYU, then how do you not take San Diego State? So much potential with SDSU. Big city with no NFL team, gets you California exposure and typically decently solid football and basketball. 

San Diego is a long way further west.  BYU is actually closer on average, by nearly 200 miles, than UCF is.

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1 hour ago, 'stache said:

That makes the most sense. Utah is beautiful so maybe I’ll make a trip to a game, I’ll just drink my coffee and beer before getting near the campus.

Splitting Florida and Texas makes sense.  And WVU and Cincinnati recruit Florida.  Iowa St. a little also.

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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11784

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The UH lurkers will set me on fire, but here goes. 

The Cougars will struggle in the Big 12. Holgo is washed and his program is dysfunctional. Tech worked them like a rented mule. 

Fertitta very soon will have to decide if he wants to fire one of his closest friends. This isn't how you run a program. 

The writing was on the wall: 

https://www.si.com/college/2019/04/30/dana-holgorsen-houston-west-virginia-recruiting

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'stache

'stache 22115

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I think they'll be okay. Won't be as bad as Baylor was for the first decade of the conference, but probably won't have the success that Baylor had under Briles, or even TCU. When TCU came in they were mediocre for a few years, had a big co-champ year, and been average to above average since. I think that's where UH will settle. 

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thunderlounge

thunderlounge 8318

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1 hour ago, Gidnik said:

Gor  isn’t about money, it’s about the rights to all of our home game


No, but THIS is all about the money. We will cut them a check, take our content, and walk. Whether they like it or not, we have an out. That out says you pay $x in exit fees, and walk away. 
 

They also don’t really want to try and take any of that to court and challenge the GOR or Sovereign Immunity.
 

Again, the question isn’t when, but how much we will have to pay. All of it, or part of it, the money is there.  

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mdmost

mdmost 43848

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Posted (edited)

I did chuckle as I passed by a TV showing Tech vs UH. Hey look, a future Big 12 matchup. Thank God, we won't be in the conference when that's the case. 

The Big 12 expanding is great for Texas and OU. It limits the "damages" shitheel schools like TCU and Baylor could claim. The alternative to expanding was being relegated to Group of 5. Now the Big 12 isn't doing that but unless there's a super strong undefeated Big 12 champion with a good OOC win on its resume, they will get passed over by the other P4 conferences every time for the playoff. But they'll get the NY6 money and the SEC will keep the Sugar Bowl tie in for now. All that's left is what ABC/ESPN/Fox will pay out. 

Texas and OU need to pay up and GTFO. It's like a divorce. It's expensive but totally worth the money. 

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'stache

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1 hour ago, Gidnik said:

Gor  isn’t about money, it’s about the rights to all of our home game

Which you can buy out of for a lot of money. Pay it and move on if the money is there. Until there is a deal, the official date is 2025. We all know it probably won't be that long, but there has to be agreement on the payment, or litigation, which would take forever.

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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 11026

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2 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Gee is driving the bus and he wants travel partners. West Virginia is going to be a division with UCF and Cincy. 

"East" : UCF, Cincy, West Virginia, Kansas, K State, Iowa State 

West : Baylor, TCU, BYU, OK State, Tech, UH

 

100% this needs to be the divisional balance. It's also fairly even on the football field too. 

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Jasper_Jester

Jasper_Jester 356

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Posted (edited)

Honestly, I can't believe that all of the 8 schools are going to vote to lock themselves to this conference by voting to expand. They will be asked to extend their GOR so they can negotiate the next TV contract. Why wouldn't you vote no and wait out your other conference options? It seems likely that even if you end up in an enlarged AAC, at least you don't have a GOR that attempts to tie your hands from moving to a better situation and you probably get a similar payout of TV money long term (post 2025).

Edited by Jasper_Jester
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camel at sea

camel at sea 589

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3 minutes ago, Jasper_Jester said:

Honestly, I can't believe that all of the 8 schools are going to vote to lock themselves to this conference by voting to expand. They will be asked to extend their GOR so they can negotiate the next TV contract. Why wouldn't you vote no and wait out your other conference options. I have a hard time seeing that even if you end up in an enlarged AAC, at least they don't have a GOR that attempts to tie your hands from moving to a better situation and you probably get a similar payout of TV money long term.

I think some TV executives told them that none of them are additive to another power conference.  Does Kansas add so much to the B1G pie that they can split their money 15 ways instead of 14 without the current members coming out behind?  Probably not.  I'd guess that's true for the entire conference.  Best thing the IR8 can do is to make the Big 12 as good as it can be.   

That said, I think the ACC and PAC schools have the same issues.  It's going to be really tough for anyone other than Notre Dame to be additive to either the B1G or SEC now that we're moving into the streaming era.  

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 53330

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Posted (edited)

Can espn leverage their current deal with the big12 and say no restructuring until after Texas and ou are released, and make them think about splitting the last big check they’ll be getting 14 ways?  I don’t even recall what rights espn has and what fox has. Might not be enough to be persuasive. 
 

of course now that expansion is happening and the threat of a disbanded conference leaving 8 orphans is no longer in play, the cost to leave should now be capped at what aggy and Mizzou paid to take their media rights and leave. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto
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Not a Sock

Not a Sock 2362

Posted
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Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

Can espn leverage their current deal with the big12 and say no restructuring until after Texas and ou are released, and make them think about splitting the last big check they’ll be getting 14 ways?  I don’t even recall what rights espn has and what fox has. Might not be enough to be persuasive. 

I am assuming none of these teams can actually be added until either the Big 12 settles with UT and OU or 2025. As I assume adding teams would open of the GOR and allow us to bolt to the SEC.

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utee94

utee94 16065

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3 minutes ago, Not a Sock said:

I am assuming none of these teams can actually be added until either the Big 12 settles with UT and OU or 2025. As I assume adding teams would open of the GOR and allow us to bolt to the SEC.

It's all going to happen in 2022.  The other teams that are currently in conferences, have the same legal restrictions on admitting their plans that we do.

The GOR is not going to bind Texas or OU, it's just another negotiation that will be rolled into the overall exit discussion.  The B12 will settle with Texas and OU for amounts that are substantially below stated contract values, because that precedent has already been set, multiple times over.  If the B12 tries to push it, then they're going to have to attempt to take two public universities to court, and good luck with that.

It'll all be settled, Texas and OU out in 2022, B12 newcomers in, easy peasy.

 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34404

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4 minutes ago, Gidnik said:

I think it’s going to be a bigger fight than anyone wants to admit.  The networks don’t distribute revenue to schools the conference does. There is a reason nobody has pushed sovereign immunity, nobody knows what will happen. 

Texas Tech has pushed sovereign immunity with respect to athletic departments so they could avoid paying Mike Leach.

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thunderlounge

thunderlounge 8318

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There is no fight. They can try, but they can’t avoid the exit clause. 
 

We have the full amount, and if that is what it takes then they can’t do shit about it. 
 

The only unknown is how much will actually be paid. Full amount? 80%? 50%? That’s the negotiation agenda. 
 

Did Colo, Misery, Corn, or aggy wait years after announcing? Nope. Played their last season and left, while paying significantly less than stated in the bylaws.

Whether he likes it or not, bowlsby is not in charge of, or an influence upon, when we bolt. 

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utee94

utee94 16065

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11 minutes ago, Gidnik said:

I think it’s going to be a bigger fight than anyone wants to admit.  The networks don’t distribute revenue to schools the conference does. There is a reason nobody has pushed sovereign immunity, nobody knows what will happen. 

The B12 can withhold UT's portion of the 2021/2022 conference distribution payments. That's it.  After that, Texas will be in the SEC, and the SEC will have the money for the distribution.

Think about it-- ESPN isn't going to NOT give the SEC the additional money for the addition of Texas, and the SEC isn't going to NOT give Texas its appropriate portion of the SEC distribution.  The B12 will not have access to any of UT's conference distribution money beyond the 2021/2022 schoolyear.  They could try and sue ESPN or the SEC for that money, but good luck with that.

In reality it will never come to any of that, because it's going to be settled long before that.  Just like every other school that's left the B12 or any other conference over the past 12 years.

 

 

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utee94

utee94 16065

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3 minutes ago, Gidnik said:

thats what nobody wants to happen.  

Well it's what the B12 doesn't want to happen. Which is why it won't happen.  They'll settle.

If the B12 is  lucky they might get more than Texas' share of the 2021/22 conference distribution, but I wouldn't count on it.  That amount of money would be in line with what Nebraska, Colorado. A&M, and Missouri paid, when they left.

 

 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34404

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5 minutes ago, Gidnik said:

thats an entirely different situation. 

A state school athletic department refusing to pay out a contract and claiming sovereign immunity so that it doesn't even have to defend that action in court is an entirely different situation than a state school athletic department refusing to pay out a contract and claiming sovereign immunity so that it doesn't even have to defend that action in court? You sure about that?

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28 minutes ago, utee94 said:

The B12 can withhold UT's portion of the 2021/2022 conference distribution payments. That's it.  After that, Texas will be in the SEC, and the SEC will have the money for the distribution.

Think about it-- ESPN isn't going to NOT give the SEC the additional money for the addition of Texas, and the SEC isn't going to NOT give Texas its appropriate portion of the SEC distribution.  The B12 will not have access to any of UT's conference distribution money beyond the 2021/2022 schoolyear.  They could try and sue ESPN or the SEC for that money, but good luck with that.

In reality it will never come to any of that, because it's going to be settled long before that.  Just like every other school that's left the B12 or any other conference over the past 12 years.

 

 

And if it gets nasty, the Big 12 members really don't need to be making enemies.  Both in NCAA, legislatures and for future scheduling, its could be bad for them.

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https://www.extrapointsmb.com/big-12-expansion-power-conference-ncaa-college-football/

Goes over what the Big 12 looked at in expansion.  And tries to address the power conference question--too many variables with playoffs and NCAA restructuring.  But there is this piece:

 

"...In 2020, 2019 and 2018, the Big 12 posted a higher average Sagarin ranking than the Pac-12, with the four expansion teams, or by themselves (in 2017, the Pac-12's ranking was better). The same trend was true with F+, and I suspect it would be true if you used SP+, or Massey, or any number of opponent and/or pace adjusted metrics.

Taking Texas and Oklahoma out of the Big 12 unquestionably makes it a worse football conference. But the remaining eight, plus these four new teams, based on the last few seasons, would be a peer to the Pac-12, and honestly, to the not-Clemson ACC. The idea that there is a massive gap is not really supported by recent performance.

That being said, I think there are two important caveats...."

Caveats are recruiting at a high level and the Pac 12 schools like USC and UCLA staying down.

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Jasper_Jester

Jasper_Jester 356

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31 minutes ago, thunderlounge said:

Did Colo, Misery, Corn, or aggy wait years after announcing? Nope. Played their last season and left, while paying significantly less than stated in the bylaws.

Whether he likes it or not, bowlsby is not in charge of, or an influence upon, when we bolt. 

We are going to be the first that has signed a Grant of Rights though. So it is going to be different. 

It seems adding teams muddies the waters on any losses claimed by the Conference if they want to play hard ball and not release the GOR.

 

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Gidnik

Gidnik 3475

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28 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

A state school athletic department refusing to pay out a contract and claiming sovereign immunity so that it doesn't even have to defend that action in court is an entirely different situation than a state school athletic department refusing to pay out a contract and claiming sovereign immunity so that it doesn't even have to defend that action in court? You sure about that?

against an individual that it fired for cause. not voiding a contract for reasons that endanger other state institutions. im absolutely sure that its not the same. 

 

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Gidnik

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31 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

A state school athletic department refusing to pay out a contract and claiming sovereign immunity so that it doesn't even have to defend that action in court is an entirely different situation than a state school athletic department refusing to pay out a contract and claiming sovereign immunity so that it doesn't even have to defend that action in court? You sure about that?

in addition, none of those schools that left the conference signed the GOR. its an entirely different scenario now

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Not a Sock

Not a Sock 2362

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Doesn’t matter we have the funds for buyout 

We don’t if the supposed GOR payouts  are anywhere close to correct. You’re talking 130 million a year not even Texas has 500 plus million sitting around. The other option is to simple forgo the media payouts but that’s Texas losing out on 37 million dollars a year for 4 years.

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thunderlounge

thunderlounge 8318

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49 minutes ago, Jasper_Jester said:

We are going to be the first that has signed a Grant of Rights though. So it is going to be different.


Except it isn’t. A contract is a contract, and contracts were written and meant to be broken. 
 

 

10 minutes ago, Not a Sock said:

We don’t if the supposed GOR payouts  are anywhere close to correct. You’re talking 130 million a year not even Texas has 500 plus million sitting around. The other option is to simple forgo the media payouts but that’s Texas losing out on 37 million dollars a year for 4 years.

Texas isn’t getting $130M/yr. 

Full buyout for both was reported to be $160M, or $80M/each. 
 

Whether that is 100% correct or not, I’m unable to say with full accuracy or not. But it’s way closer than the $500 or whatever you were spewing. 
 

 

9 minutes ago, burdine said:

what if we have the funds and ou doesn't?

Non-issue. Both Texas and ousux have already said the money is there for a full buyout, if that’s what it takes. 
 

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