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Realignment talk not going away


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11 minutes ago, thunderlounge said:


Except it isn’t. A contract is a contract, and contracts were written and meant to be broken. 
 

 

Texas isn’t getting $130M/yr. 

Full buyout for both was reported to be $160M, or $80M/each. 
 

Whether that is 100% correct or not, I’m unable to say with full accuracy or not. But it’s way closer than the $500 or whatever you were spewing. 
 

 

Non-issue. Both Texas and ousux have already said the money is there for a full buyout, if that’s what it takes. 
 

No the buyout is what Texas owes the Big 12. The GOR is a total different issues and is rumored to be north of a 100 million dollars a year for Texas.

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2 minutes ago, Not a Sock said:

No the buyout is what Texas owes the Big 12. The GOR is a total different issues and is rumored to be north of a 100 million dollars a year for Texas.

I think you’re way off on your assumptions. Show your work with cited sources….none of the information I’ve seen from various articles are anywhere close to what you’re saying. 

Edited by BurntOrange&White
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52 minutes ago, Jasper_Jester said:

Sorry if already posted, but this is how one lawyer sees this playing out in an article he wrote 8 years ago. I think the variable here is Fox. 

 

Myth of the Big 12's Grant of rights | FOX Sports

 

I remember this from last time and said something pretty similar. The "we keep your tv rights" thing was never meant to actually play out, it was a concept on which damages can be calculated if there is a breach (i.e., leaving early). The difference here is that every keeps saying things like "OU and Texas were half the value of the contract" so that means damages are what the rest of us lose when you leave early. The Longhorn Network and increased payout the last round was essentially the agreement to let the defectors leave with reduced buyouts while keeping significant value in the Big 12. That doesn't apply here. We have no real substitutes that are anywhere close to OU and Texas and our payouts will be greatly reduced. That is the price of you leaving early. It will certainly be negotiated, but that is where you start.

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27 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I remember this from last time and said something pretty similar. The "we keep your tv rights" thing was never meant to actually play out, it was a concept on which damages can be calculated if there is a breach (i.e., leaving early). The difference here is that every keeps saying things like "OU and Texas were half the value of the contract" so that means damages are what the rest of us lose when you leave early. The Longhorn Network and increased payout the last round was essentially the agreement to let the defectors leave with reduced buyouts while keeping significant value in the Big 12. That doesn't apply here. We have no real substitutes that are anywhere close to OU and Texas and our payouts will be greatly reduced. That is the price of you leaving early. It will certainly be negotiated, but that is where you start.

The max penalty for the GOR, is whatever the difference is that the networks pay the B12 with TX and OU included, compared to what they would pay the B12 without TX and OU-- for whatever years are remaining on the GOR deal. 

ESPN won't diminish its payout to the B12, so if ESPN were the sole network television partner, those damages would be zero, and Texas and OU would owe the B12 nothing with respect to the GOR buyout.  No damages = no buyout.

But ESPN is not the only network partner, so the question is what is the delta between what Fox is currently paying for the three years ending 2023, 2024, and 2025, versus what they would be willing to pay without Texas and OU.  This precedent has also already been set-- in 2010 when the B12 lost valuable media properties in Nebraska and Colorado, and was left with fewer schools, Fox deliberately and specifically did not decrease the payouts.  And in 2011 when Texas A&M and Missouri left, and were replaced with less valuable media properties in WVU and TCU, Fox also did not decrease the payouts.

So then, if there is no reduction in media payouts, there are no damages.  And no damages, means zero compensation to the B12 from Texas or OU, with respect to the GOR. 

Even though no media partner has done it before when teams left a conference, it's possible that Fox might choose to diminish its payouts to the B12.  In which case, the 3 years of delta between the original contractual payout, and the new lower payout, would be the maximum remedy paid by Texas and OU.  That would become the maximum damages required to be paid by Texas and OU, and negotiations would work downward from there.

Edited by utee94
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1 hour ago, Not a Sock said:

No the buyout is what Texas owes the Big 12. The GOR is a total different issues and is rumored to be north of a 100 million dollars a year for Texas.

You've been reading @theDudeofWV twitter account again, haven't you?  The post a couple above here lays out how those damages are bullshit and that a single quote from an unnamed ESPN exec that said 'Texas/OU are worth 50% of the contract' isn't going to mean shit when actual damages are lawyered.

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2 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

You've been reading @theDudeofWV twitter account again, haven't you?  The post a couple above here lays out how those damages are bullshit and that a single quote from an unnamed ESPN exec that said 'Texas/OU are worth 50% of the contract' isn't going to mean shit when actual damages are lawyered.

Yeah, there's not going to be any conjecture necessary.  It won't matter what someone speculated at some point.  Any actual damages will be immediately calculable.  And only actual damages will be required for a remedy.

ESPN stands to gain more from having Texas and OU in the SEC, than they'd lose by maintaining the payouts to the B12, so the math is easy for them.

Fox hasn't ever decreased its payouts to a conference when other teams have left, but then again, Colorado, Nebraska, A&M, and Mizzou are worth significantly less than Texas and OU.  So it's possible this will be the first time.

I'm curious to know how much is the annual payout from Fox to the B12, per year.

 

 

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1 hour ago, utee94 said:

I'm curious to know how much is the annual payout from Fox to the B12, per year.

 

 

 

It's not exact, but here's a starting point for you:

 

https://wacotrib.com/sports/college/baylor/big-12-signs-monumental-13-year-2-6-billion-tv-deal/article_b912ec2f-82ee-57bd-afc9-0ed773ffaa2a.html

 

Quote

With two years of turbulence in its rearview mirror, the Big 12’s future was solidified Friday as the conference announced it had reached a 13-year agreement with ESPN and the Fox Sports Media Group.

The contract is worth $2.6 billion and is expected to pay each of the 10 Big 12 schools approximately $20 million annually. The new media rights deal stipulates that any team that leaves the conference during the next 13 years would have to forfeit its future television revenue to the Big 12 through the end of the contract in 2024-25.

 

 

Edit:  And...here is the ESPN bridge added on in 2019:

 

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/new-rights-deal-gets-big-12-as-close-as-possible-to-its-own-network-with-football-title-games-on-espn/

 

Quote

The deal is essentially a significant bridge deal that runs concurrent with the existing rights agreement, which ends after the 2024-25 academic year.  The expanded deal means an average of additional $22 million per year for the Big 12 for the remaining six years of its current agreement, according to Sports Business Journal. Bowlsby said that number was not accurate but did not elaborate.

Big 12 schools currently each get $40.1 million annually in rights fees. Even a modest increase in those fees would further entrench the league in third place behind the Big Ten and SEC in that category. 

 

 

 

Edited by Francisco 2.0
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9 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Fox was an average of $90 million a year from 2012 to 2024-5, but that got reworked a little when ESPN signed their new deal and the combined amount was this $203 million a year average deal in the article above.

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I can't see Disney wanting the GOR challenged in court.  The GOR has been a good tool to protect the stability of the media side's inventory slate.  If it gets challenged successfully, then maybe that comes back to bite them in one of their other deals or at some point in the future.

The best outcome is a mutually acceptable settlement.  If they get that, then the GOR continues to have teeth for other leagues and other deals.  

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10 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

I can't see Disney wanting the GOR challenged in court.  The GOR has been a good tool to protect the stability of the media side's inventory slate.  If it gets challenged successfully, then maybe that comes back to bite them in one of their other deals or at some point in the future.

The best outcome is a mutually acceptable settlement.  If they get that, then the GOR continues to have teeth for other leagues and other deals.  

And to clarify, those big deals are NOT sports related.  GOR is an entertainment idea transported to sports.

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1 hour ago, camel at sea said:

I can't see Disney wanting the GOR challenged in court.  The GOR has been a good tool to protect the stability of the media side's inventory slate.  If it gets challenged successfully, then maybe that comes back to bite them in one of their other deals or at some point in the future.

The best outcome is a mutually acceptable settlement.  If they get that, then the GOR continues to have teeth for other leagues and other deals.  

GOR being challenged in court could end up being anarchy in cfb

 

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15 hours ago, 'stache said:

I remember this from last time and said something pretty similar. The "we keep your tv rights" thing was never meant to actually play out, it was a concept on which damages can be calculated if there is a breach (i.e., leaving early). The difference here is that every keeps saying things like "OU and Texas were half the value of the contract" so that means damages are what the rest of us lose when you leave early. The Longhorn Network and increased payout the last round was essentially the agreement to let the defectors leave with reduced buyouts while keeping significant value in the Big 12. That doesn't apply here. We have no real substitutes that are anywhere close to OU and Texas and our payouts will be greatly reduced. That is the price of you leaving early. It will certainly be negotiated, but that is where you start.

And the GOR is only for current contract, not future. If ESPN/FOX doesn’t change that contract until the current contract is up then there is no damages. I think we’d just leverage not having to wait 18 months and pay full buyout of 80m that was reported. 

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5 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

I thought Miami was the opposite -- a small school for rich kids like SMU.

Those two things aren't mutually exclusive. A commuter school is a school with less than usual campus life. Which you often see in schools in very big cities where kids can stay with their parents, and/or the real estate is expensive and there's not a ton of housing. Maybe because enrollment is small, most kids do stay on campus at Miami. But that wasn't my understanding, and I've always heard stories about how there isn't a lot of campus life at Miami (because the life is the city of Miami), games were played in Dolphin Stadium, etc. 

Edited by SydneyCarton
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25 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Those two things aren't mutually exclusive. A commuter school is a school with less than usual campus life. Which you often see in schools in very big cities where kids can stay with their parents, and/or the real estate is expensive and there's not a ton of housing. Maybe because enrollment is small, most kids do stay on campus at Miami. But that wasn't my understanding, and I've always heard stories about how there isn't a lot of campus life at Miami (because the life is the city of Miami), games were played in Dolphin Stadium, etc. 

 

Check out a google satellite image of their campus.  It's pretty small.  

Few years back, I ate at a 5 Guys across the street and unless you had prior knowledge, you had no idea the campus was over there.  It doesn't look like a "traditional" college campus.

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18 hours ago, utee94 said:

The max penalty for the GOR, is whatever the difference is that the networks pay the B12 with TX and OU included, compared to what they would pay the B12 without TX and OU-- for whatever years are remaining on the GOR deal. 

ESPN won't diminish its payout to the B12, so if ESPN were the sole network television partner, those damages would be zero, and Texas and OU would owe the B12 nothing with respect to the GOR buyout.  No damages = no buyout.

But ESPN is not the only network partner, so the question is what is the delta between what Fox is currently paying for the three years ending 2023, 2024, and 2025, versus what they would be willing to pay without Texas and OU.  This precedent has also already been set-- in 2010 when the B12 lost valuable media properties in Nebraska and Colorado, and was left with fewer schools, Fox deliberately and specifically did not decrease the payouts.  And in 2011 when Texas A&M and Missouri left, and were replaced with less valuable media properties in WVU and TCU, Fox also did not decrease the payouts.

So then, if there is no reduction in media payouts, there are no damages.  And no damages, means zero compensation to the B12 from Texas or OU, with respect to the GOR. 

Even though no media partner has done it before when teams left a conference, it's possible that Fox might choose to diminish its payouts to the B12.  In which case, the 3 years of delta between the original contractual payout, and the new lower payout, would be the maximum remedy paid by Texas and OU.  That would become the maximum damages required to be paid by Texas and OU, and negotiations would work downward from there.

This is the first I've seen that ESPN would keep the payouts the same if OU and Texas left early. Everything I read is that the contract would be cut in half or more upon your departure. If ESPN wants to do that to help OU and Texas leave early, fine, it makes some sense financially. I assume that has not been decided upon or else you'd already announce you'll be gone by next year. You would still owe the buyout money. That's in the by-laws which run for 99 years starting in 2012.

Edited by 'stache
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10 minutes ago, 'stache said:

This is the first I've seen that ESPN would keep the payouts the same if OU and Texas left early. Everything I read is that the contract would be cut in half or more upon your departure. If ESPN wants to do that to help OU and Texas leave early, fine, it makes some sense financially. I assume that has not been decided upon or else you'd already announce you'll be gone by next year. You would still owe the buyout money. That's in the by-laws which run for 99 years starting in 2012.

What credible source has stated this?  It doesn't really make any sense at all, if you think about it.

First, there's the precedent that ESPN has never cut the contracts before, at any time, when schools left the conference and were either replaced by lower-valued media properties, or were not replaced at all.

And second, ESPN stands to gain more money by having Texas and OU in the SEC, than they lose by keeping the contract payouts the same to the B12, for the three years ending 2023-2025.

So, while it's true that no announcements have been made, it's reasonable to believe that ESPN will not decrease the payouts to the B12.  We haven't heard anything yet, and we won't hear anything soon, because message board fans are unimportant and irrelevant.  But these are the negotiations that are certainly occurring behind closed doors, because they're the exact same negotiations that occurred when schools left conferences in 2010, 2011, 2014, etc.

 

Edited by utee94
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3 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

No idea. Miami is a commuter school. 

It's 54% out of state students.  It's pretty much the opposite of a commuter school.  $50K+ a year to attend.  Lots of kids from the Northeast and other parts of Florida.  Lots of us Jews head down there to try to blend in with the beautiful people and stay warm.  It's a pretty sweet area, too.  Coral Gables is the bomb 

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17 minutes ago, DeadArmadillo said:

It's 54% out of state students.  It's pretty much the opposite of a commuter school.  $50K+ a year to attend.  Lots of kids from the Northeast and other parts of Florida.  Lots of us Jews head down there to try to blend in with the beautiful people and stay warm.  It's a pretty sweet area, too.  Coral Gables is the bomb 

Yeah. And do all the students live on campus? Or all over coral gables and Miami? Because again,  not mutually exclusive from what i said above. 

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1 hour ago, 'stache said:

This is the first I've seen that ESPN would keep the payouts the same if OU and Texas left early. Everything I read is that the contract would be cut in half or more upon your departure. If ESPN wants to do that to help OU and Texas leave early, fine, it makes some sense financially. I assume that has not been decided upon or else you'd already announce you'll be gone by next year. You would still owe the buyout money. That's in the by-laws which run for 99 years starting in 2012.

I don’t think we’ve seen anything official either way, but you’re repeating Texas and Oklahoma’s value to the current contract which might be true but the new contract will vet that out one way or another.  The question is whether ESPN and FOX would cut the Big12’s contract for the final 3 years.

For ESPN it doesn’t make sense.  They’d be gaining all of UT/OU’s rights from FOX and only giving up a portion of rights to BYU, UH, Cincy and UCF (which they currently own all tier 1/2).

FOX is the one that might throw a fit since they are losing all access to UT/OU however adding more inventory by adding 4 schools actually get them more game inventory to select from and takes some away from ESPN.  But FOX has been cutting costs and chose not to broadcast the Big 12 conference championship game even though they had the option to.

In 2019 FOX broadcasted 15 Big12 games including TX/OU.  Removing TX/OU, Texas and Oklahoma were included in 7 of the remaining 14 games.  So FOX could at best take away half of the remaining $90mil/yr contract which is $45million a year which would be $4.5million a year for the remaining 8 school which is $36million a year/$108 million for all 3 years.

That being said if the Big12 doesn’t like that deal they could always just walk away from FOX.  The contract does not say UT/OU are worth more than 50% of this money so it’s up to interpretation as to the value of the schools.  If they can’t agree on a new valuation the Big 12 can take their TV rights and go make a better deal but that is the last thing that FOX would want to do.  Having the Big12’s rights come available before the Big Ten would limit their ability to bid on both of them and could really screw FOX over.  Keeping the Big 12 intact until after the Big Ten rights are secured would be in FOX’s best interest so I assume you’ll see some favorable valuations from them in the short term to set them up for longer term success.

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Check out a google satellite image of their campus.  It's pretty small.  
Few years back, I ate at a 5 Guys across the street and unless you had prior knowledge, you had no idea the campus was over there.  It doesn't look like a "traditional" college campus.
I visited campus to see a high school buddy who got a hoops scholarship there. I was really surprised how dumpy the buildings and dorms were. Just painted cinder block on the exterior. I'd imagine that's changed since then, but it was clear despite being a private school, Miami like so many of the other Florida schools (FIU, FAU, UCF, USF, etc) grew up in the post war era and didn't yet have much tradition or architecture to speak of yet.

Dude had to tuck tail back to Texas after it was discovered the school was giving the team inappropriate Pell grants. It wasn't just the football team back then.
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22 minutes ago, Burntcowboy said:

Hopefully we are gone after the year and in the sec in 22

I guess I don't see how this is 'breaking' news. They could probably add half the AAC and MWC if they wanted, and go to thirty. If there is anything 'breaking' about it, it would be these supposed projections. If the projections are realistically far higher than most anticipate (mid-to-high teens), is that because ESPN/Fox have already quietly offered up a deal? Is there something else going on that none of us see?

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1 minute ago, ouflak said:

I guess I don't see how this is 'breaking' news. They could probably add half the AAC and MWC if they wanted, and go to thirty. If there is anything 'breaking' about it, it would be these supposed projections. If the projections are realistically far higher than most anticipate (mid-to-high teens), is that because ESPN/Fox have already quietly offered up a deal? Is there something else going on that none of us see?

My hope is that there is some understanding that some of the remaining 8 (including OSU which has the best TV numbers) have landing spots in the P4 and they'll need to be replaced too.

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2 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

Yeah. And do all the students live on campus? Or all over coral gables and Miami? Because again,  not mutually exclusive from what i said above. 

Maybe your definition of a commuter school is different than mine and most people I know.  

To me, and I think most people, a commuter student example is someone who grew up in Fort Worth, graduated from Richland High School, lived at home with his folks, and then attended college at UT-Arlington. He commutes from his actual permanent home.  That's UCF, UTEP, Houston, Cincinnati, etc.

If you grow up in White Plains, NY or a Tampa suburb, or Chicago, go to school at Miami (FL), but live in an off campus apartment paid for by your family and drive a few miles to classes, that's different.  That's the majority of Miami students as are kids at UT, Tech, and OU and so on.  They aren't Miami area kids.  That was just their college destination

That's what I was stating.  In general, I think you tend to support your college athletic teams more if you moved away from home to go to college you selected instead of just one that was nearby

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17 minutes ago, Left Coast said:

Assuming UCF, Cincy and Houston go to the Big 12, who is up next for the AAC? I’m assuming they’ll pull from CUSA, MAC or something like that. Army? Coastal Carolina? UTEP?

The AAC should beg on hands and knees for Army and Air Force to join as football only members. Navy is by far their best TV draw right now. 

Edited by billfromlaketravis
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16 minutes ago, 'stache said:

My hope is that there is some understanding that some of the remaining 8 (including OSU which has the best TV numbers) have landing spots in the P4 and they'll need to be replaced too.

The Big 12 will be sellling to networks a "new and improved" Big 12 that includes the TV numbers of.....OSU.  

In other words, the only hope of the conference drawing something above minimum wage for a tv contract will involve OSU staying put.  And that will require a new GOR, which OSU will gladly sign.  Because at this point, OSU appears to be out of options (and Kansas, and Iowa State, etc).

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

The Big 12 will be sellling to networks a "new and improved" Big 12 that includes the TV numbers of.....OSU.  

In other words, the only hope of the conference drawing something above minimum wage for a tv contract will involve OSU staying put.  And that will require a new GOR, which OSU will gladly sign.  Because at this point, OSU appears to be out of options (and Kansas, and Iowa State, etc).

 

 

 

 

I don't think it's firm yet that OSU, KU, ISU, etc. are forever stuck, and I suspect most of the remaining 8 will not sign a grant of rights (and it may already be known before expansion). I think the "new" Big 12 is better competitively than the PAC and the non-Clemson ACC, but won't be paid like it, which is unfortunate.

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