Realignment talk not going away

[TKthunder2 4981]

4 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

The AAC should beg on hands and knees for Army and Air Force to join. Navy is by far their best TV draw right now. 

Pretty much, but they be football only like Navy.  They’d still need some full members since they’d be down to 7 in basketball.  Rice has an outside shot, but I think Coastal Carolina, UAB, and Georgia State are probably on deck.

[Francisco 2.0 32347]

Just now, 'stache said:

I don't think it's firm yet that OSU, KU, ISU, etc. are forever stuck, and I suspect most of the remaining 8 will not sign a grant of rights (and it may already be known before expansion). I think the "new" Big 12 is better competitively than the PAC and the non-Clemson ACC, but won't be paid like it, which is unfortunate.

You believe that the newcomers would not sign a GOR?  The one thing that sorta protects a conference from outright imploding?  They are going to want that conference security after being nomads the last 2 decades.  

Granted, it's as secure as the paper it is written on, but it is better than a gentlemans agreement.  

['stache 21778]

19 minutes ago, Left Coast said:

Assuming UCF, Cincy and Houston go to the Big 12, who is up next for the AAC? I’m assuming they’ll pull from CUSA, MAC or something like that. Army? Coastal Carolina? UTEP?

Army is obvious, but haven't they stood firmly against joining?

I think the most likely candidates would be UTSA, UNT, FAU, FIU, and UAB. I'm not sure Coastal Carolina is a sure bet based on a year or two of success, but maybe. They did win the college world series a few years ago (fml).

['stache 21778]

3 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

You believe that the newcomers would not sign a GOR?  The one thing that sorta protects a conference from outright imploding?  They are going to want that conference security after being nomads the last 2 decades.  

Granted, it's as secure as the paper it is written on, but it is better than a gentlemans agreement.  

Unless the tv people are willing to treat the new league similar to the PAC and ACC, the conference is just as vulnerable to implosion as the old one. If the GOR has a smaller buyout based on the smaller distributions, I guess we might sign, but like you said, it's worth the paper its written on, and anyone who has an out will take it immediately upon invite.

Edited September 8, 2021 by 'stache

[BurntOrange&White 39706]

1 hour ago, Burntcowboy said:

Hopefully we are gone after the year and in the sec in 22

Negged for posting that dipshits tweets. He knows nothing. 

[billfromlaketravis 11364]

Why would UH sign a GOR? They'll be in the Pac 12 soon. - Signed, Andre Ware 

[Jasper_Jester 356]

 

2 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I don't think it's firm yet that OSU, KU, ISU, etc. are forever stuck, and I suspect most of the remaining 8 will not sign a grant of rights (and it may already be known before expansion). I think the "new" Big 12 is better competitively than the PAC and the non-Clemson ACC, but won't be paid like it, which is unfortunate.

The GOR is basically the only thing that gets an enlarged Big XII a chance for more broadcast revenue than the AAC. Bowlsby is going to come knocking for a renewal of the GOR so you can get your contract renewed. And if you don't sign, you are home wreckers like us and need to show up with $80M... Everyone else in the conference is voting yes on extending the GOR (including the new family members you are inviting to come play). Does T Boone's family have interest in buying you guys out? Where does Kansas and ISU keep their $80M stacks of cash?

 

[SimonBolivar 10949]

[TKthunder2 4981]

6 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Army is obvious, but haven't they stood firmly against joining?

I think the most likely candidates would be UTSA, UNT, FAU, FIU, and UAB. I'm not sure Coastal Carolina is a sure bet based on a year or two of success, but maybe. They did win the college world series a few years ago (fml).

SMU, Tulane, Tulsa won’t allow UTSA or especially UNT in.  If they are adding a Texas team don’t sleep on Rice.  Tulane won’t let in a Louisiana school, UCF won’t allow FAU/FIU nor will ECU allow Appalachian State.

[kopp0e 1135]

37 minutes ago, Left Coast said:

Assuming UCF, Cincy and Houston go to the Big 12, who is up next for the AAC? I’m assuming they’ll pull from CUSA, MAC or something like that. Army? Coastal Carolina? UTEP?

AAC will lose Houston/ UCF/ Cincinnati in short term, could lose Memphis/ USF, after Sooners & Longhorns bolt to SEC:

AAC -
East Carolina University
^University of Alabama at Birmingham
^Florida Atlantic University
*University of Memphis
*University of South Florida
Southern Methodist University
^Rice University
Temple University
Tulane University
University of Tulsa

I'd say long term (counting for possible defections of Tigers/ Bulls) the short-term 3 added should be from listed above...

[Js1 85143]

8 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

SMU, Tulane, Tulsa won’t allow UTSA or especially UNT in.  If they are adding a Texas team don’t sleep on Rice.  Tulane won’t let in a Louisiana school, UCF won’t allow FAU/FIU nor will ECU allow Appalachian State.

Would be fucking hilarious if Rice beats UH on Sat and then they invite Rice to the Big 12. 

[DFW Horn 6118]

8 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

SMU, Tulane, Tulsa won’t allow UTSA or especially UNT in.  If they are adding a Texas team don’t sleep on Rice.  Tulane won’t let in a Louisiana school, UCF won’t allow FAU/FIU nor will ECU allow Appalachian State.

...and aggy won't allow UT into the SEC

Oh, snap

[billfromlaketravis 11364]

Assuming Fickell stays and the playoffs expand soon, Cincy with an automatic bid could be trouble in the first round. 

[kopp0e 1135]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Would be fucking hilarious if Rice beats UH on Sat and then they invite Rice to the Big 12. 

I'm still trying to figure a way Rice jumps to "P4" status (pulls a Rutgers to B1G move) to PAC, since they like AAU & all...
Could a pairing of Houston/ Rice (AAU) & Oklahoma State/ Kansas (AAU) work to grow PAC to 16 members long-term..?
Or would Texas Tech be more likely to displace Kansas, giving PAC 3 teams in Texas..? Even TCU in place of OSU too..?

[Daichee Bell 2925]

Anyone have the Staples article from the Athletic? Thanks!

https://theathletic.com/2813535/2021/09/08/staples-the-big-12-hopes-to-get-bigger-in-2023-what-does-that-mean-for-oklahoma-texas-and-the-four-new-members/

['stache 21778]

18 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

SMU, Tulane, Tulsa won’t allow UTSA or especially UNT in.  If they are adding a Texas team don’t sleep on Rice.  Tulane won’t let in a Louisiana school, UCF won’t allow FAU/FIU nor will ECU allow Appalachian State.

Wut? I don't think it works that way in mid-major conferences. Plus, they'll want more than just SMU in Texas. Maybe not UNT since its too close to SMU. I think UTSA is kind of a shoo-in.

[Francisco 2.0 32347]

18 minutes ago, Daichee Bell said:

Anyone have the Staples article from the Athletic? Thanks!

https://theathletic.com/2813535/2021/09/08/staples-the-big-12-hopes-to-get-bigger-in-2023-what-does-that-mean-for-oklahoma-texas-and-the-four-new-members/

 

Spoiler

The first official domino fell Tuesday when the University of Houston’s board of regents authorized chancellor Renu Khator to “negotiate and execute documents necessary to affect conference affiliation for the University of Houston.” In English, that means Khator now can notify the American Athletic Conference of Houston’s intention to leave the league and to request membership in the Big 12.

Similar processes should take place this week at BYU, Cincinnati and UCF. All signs point to a vote of Big 12 members late this week to accept the applications of the four schools. Multiple sources have told The Athletic that the target date for the four new members to enter the Big 12 is the summer of 2023.

That date is interesting for a variety of reasons.

• It is two football seasons before Oklahoma and Texas are scheduled to leave for the SEC. It also is one football season before the SEC’s new media rights deal begins.

• The American Athletic Conference, to which Cincinnati, Houston and UCF belong, requires a 27-month notice and a $10 million exit fee. Twenty-seven months from now is December 2023, which is five months after the Big 12 hopes for the new members to begin play. There is precedent for leaving earlier, but there also is precedent for a school leaving early to pay a larger exit fee.

• As of Tuesday night, Big 12 officials had not reached out to Oklahoma or Texas officials about a potential vote on new members. The Sooners and Longhorns remain voting members, and officials at those schools presume they are expected to vote if the league decides to officially consider new members. The leadership at both schools has intentionally remained quiet throughout this process, and the official stance in Austin and Norman is that the schools are prepared to stay in the Big 12 until the end of the 2024-25 school year. But if the remaining members of the Big 12 do indeed intend to add the new members in 2023, it raises a lot of questions about the next steps for Oklahoma and Texas.

So let’s analyze the scenarios at play because the dominos won’t stop falling once the Big 12 votes to add those four new members.

Why 2023?

Complying with the American’s 27-month exit notice would put the new schools in the league in July 2024, but all indications are that they plan to join a year earlier. They may reference 2024 in their official announcements in the coming days, but they are working toward 2023. Getting out in time likely will be more expensive. Connecticut announced in July 2019 that it intended to leave the AAC, and the Huskies negotiated a $17 million exit fee that allowed them to leave the league on June 30, 2020, to rejoin the Big East in all sports except football, which went independent.

So why is the Big 12, which ostensibly has Oklahoma and Texas — and the $40 million or so the league will distribute to each member each year as long as the Sooners and Longhorns are still in the conference — until June 2025, trying so hard to get the new members in by 2023? There are a few reasons.

More than anything, the Big 12 would like to give networks a sense of what its new lineup will look like before it begins negotiating its next media rights deals, which are scheduled to begin July 1, 2025. It wouldn’t hurt if those new schools got the ratings boost of playing Oklahoma and Texas. That negotiation likely would begin in earnest sometime in 2024. So it would be important to have already played a football season with the new members.

The league also would like the new members in place for College Football Playoff discussions. The idea of creating a new Playoff by 2023 using the 12-team model proposed earlier this year is basically dead because leagues not named the SEC are leery of the proposal — created by SEC commissioner Greg Sankey, Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby, Mountain West commissioner Craig Thompson and Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick — because Sankey was crafting the 12-team model at the same time Oklahoma and Texas were lobbying in secret to join the SEC. So the process will be slowed down, and it could take a while. Once they all have their say, the FBS commissioners likely will create an expanded CFP that looks an awful lot like the one Sankey, Bowlsby, Thompson and Swarbrick proposed, but the rest will get to think it was their idea. And if that new Playoff begins earlier than 2025 — which seems unlikely at the moment — it’s important for the Big 12 to have its future roster set during the negotiations. Other leagues probably wouldn’t be keen on making an eight-team league eligible for an automatic bid. But if the Big 12 was guaranteed to have at least 12 teams, then that becomes a non-issue.

What does this mean for the two schools leaving for the SEC?

We don’t know yet — and neither do they — but there are a few ways this could go. A source on the Big 12 side pointed out this week that of all the conference realignment moves this century, no school has spent more than one full football season as a lame-duck conference member after deciding its new conference destination. Miami and Virginia Tech announced their intention to leave the Big East for the ACC in June 2003 and entered the ACC in July 2004. Boston College accepted its invitation in October 2003 and began ACC play in 2005. Texas A&M and Missouri announced their plans to leave the Big 12 for the SEC during the 2011 football season and wound up playing in the SEC in 2012. During that football season, Maryland announced its intent to leave the ACC for the Big Ten. The Terrapins wound up playing in the Big Ten in 2014 after negotiating a $31.4 million exit fee (down from the original $52.2 million).

The remaining Big 12 members do not believe adding the four new members in 2023 would give Oklahoma and Texas an opportunity to escape. They contend their bylaws do not allow a school to get off the hook for exit penalties even if the membership of the league materially changes. Though Oklahoma and Texas officials have remained steadfast in their public stance that they are willing to wait until 2025 to join the SEC, they probably should at least ask their attorneys if there is a case to be made for leaving when the new members of the Big 12 arrive. That may not work, but it could be the starting point for a negotiation.

Maryland didn’t pay the full amount the ACC originally wanted and UConn didn’t stay as long as the American originally wanted because those schools and those leagues negotiated. Given the history of conference realignment in the 21st century, simple logic dictates something similar would happen in this case.

While it would behoove the other Big 12 members to squeeze every penny possible out of Oklahoma and Texas by making them stay in the league until the end of this media rights deal, the relationship could become untenable. If the Big 12 intends to add the new schools by 2023, then Oklahoma and Texas naturally would want a say in scheduling and whether the league splits into divisions. They also likely would point out that moving away from the full round-robin conference schedule in football — something the conference has used as a selling point in previous years — also provides a case that the Big 12 is no longer what the Sooners and Longhorns originally signed up for.

There also is the rather significant matter of how money would be split up in a 14-team league. Had this happened in 2016, the Big 12’s media rights deals would have required partners Disney/ESPN and Fox to increase their payouts by an amount equal to four times the pro-rated amount each current Big 12 member receives. But that clause was negotiated out in a subsequent tweak of the deals — one of several bargaining choices that ultimately led Oklahoma and Texas to look elsewhere. So the network partners don’t have to offer much more (or any more) if they choose. And considering Bowlsby essentially declared war on Disney/ESPN shortly after Oklahoma and Texas made their announcements, at least one of those partners may be disinclined to acquiesce.

Oklahoma and Texas have stayed well clear of the selection process for the new schools, and there is no indication either intends to try to influence that process. But if they are going to have to play with the new schools, expect the Sooners and Longhorns to try to play a much bigger role in Big 12 discussions. That almost certainly will become contentious, and at some point, all the parties may decide there is a number that works for both sides to be rid of one another.

What might that number be?

That depends on your interpretation of the Big 12’s bylaws. According to those bylaws, a school leaving the league owes a buyout equal to two years’ worth of conference distributions. In this case, that would be about $80 million. But the bylaws also say this:

The Grant of Rights Agreement which will remain in full force and effect as to such Withdrawing Member and the Withdrawing Member shall continue to be fully bound under the Grant of Rights Agreement after Withdrawal for the remainder of the term of any Grant of Rights Agreement as if it remained a Member of the Conference, but the Withdrawing Member shall not be entitled to payment of any amounts or any other benefits arising under the Grant of Rights Agreement after Withdrawal.

In English, that means that when the members of the Big 12 agreed to a Grant of Rights after its reconstitution as a 10-team league on July 1, 2012, they agreed that the league retained the right to sell the schools’ broadcast rights to events on their campuses through the end of the current media rights deals. Those end June 30, 2025, so if Oklahoma and Texas wanted to leave in 2023 before the new members arrive, the remaining Big 12 schools probably would contend that a strict reading of the bylaws also would require them to buy back their media rights from the league. Since Bowlsby has said those deals currently pay about $28 million per school per year — the total rises to near $40 million because of bowl money, CFP money and NCAA basketball tournament shares — that would suggest each school might owe an additional $56 million. Oklahoma and Texas likely would argue that this would double-charge them since that money would be included in the $80 million exit penalty fee.

But again, history and logic suggest this will end in a negotiation. Those figures represent a starting point. If the Big 12’s 2023 plan remains full speed ahead, at some point all the parties might decide there is a number that works for everyone.

Given that Oklahoma and Texas do stand to make more in the SEC, they could calculate how many years of the current financial status quo they’re willing to accept to get out of the Big 12 sooner and simply divert the additional revenue they make from the SEC to pay off what they owe the Big 12.

The SEC certainly would love to have Oklahoma and Texas when the new ESPN deal replaces the current CBS game-of-the-week deal in 2024. Still, for now, all parties say they’re willing to wait until 2025.

But if the new Big 12 members begin play as planned in 2023, it could jump-start the negotiations that make the new world of college football arrive even faster.

 

Edited September 8, 2021 by Francisco 2.0

[Jasper_Jester 356]

47 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Would be fucking hilarious if Rice beats UH on Sat and then they invite Rice to the Big 12. 

Maybe they should have a play in competition. Have a 64 team tourney and the final 4 get a Big XII invite. It would be one of the few times in its history the Big XII was entertaining to people not affiliated with the schools in it. 

Edited September 8, 2021 by Jasper_Jester

[TrashMaster G 17395]

2 minutes ago, Jasper_Jester said:

Maybe they should have a play in competition. Have a 64 team tourney and the final 4 get a Big XII invite.

Make Baylor play their was back in.

[Hiphopopotamos 20865]

Consider the source:

https://sicem365.com/s/10447/the-new-big-12s-revenue-potential-six-additions-instead-of-four

Quote

The New Big 12's Revenue Potential; Six Additions Instead Of Four?

By David Smoak

September 8, 2021

172

23,063

 

Tweet Share (334) Jump to Discussion

 

---

The race to expansion for the Big 12 is moving ahead at a fast and furious pace as BYU, Cincinnati, UCF and Houston are all set to apply and eventually join the rebuilt conference. SicEm365 has continued to receive more details and clarification on the expansion process and what could be on the horizon.

Revenue

With the additions of BYU, Cincinnati, UCF and Houston, the annual television network revenue for the league is estimated at approximately $24.8 million gross.

In its current setup, the league administration withholds 10% of each university’s individual shares to cover its own expenses such as but not exclusive to real estate of headquarters, travel, personnel, marketing, advertising and promotion. With that 10% still expected to be withheld, the 12 members would receive an estimated $22.5 million annually for its television rights.

In addition to that estimated $22.5 million, the league would also receive revenue for the Big 12 Football Championship Game, College Football Playoff Revenue distribution and the various ways conferences are able earn revenue through the NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, including units for wins inside the main tournament and the NIT.

The revenue post-expansion would fall short of its current payouts that include Oklahoma and Texas through 2024-2025, but the additions of the four expected programs allows the league to avoid receiving a significantly more drastic cut in revenue. Without the additions, the remaining eight programs could have been dropped down to an estimated $10 million per year. 

Without a conference television network, individual programs would still be responsible for its own Tier 3 content. In addition to agreements with platforms such as ESPN+, Tier 3 money also includes a variety of additional revenue including branding of the individual programs, corporate sponsors, ad revenue, radio contracts and logos. Tier 3 revenue is not included within the league distributions. 

Tier 3 revenue for Big 12 programs, SicEm365 has been told, is approximately $15 million a year per institution on average. Each of the current universities that utilize the ESPN+ platform currently receive $4 million a year from ESPN+, leaving on average $11.0 million annually in other third tier revenue for those universities.

Tier 3 revenue for Texas and Oklahoma drastically outpaced the other programs within the league as both programs leaned on independent regional networks for Tier 3 television rights.

The chart below reflects the 2020-2021 athletic year payouts for all revenue streams to programs within the Big 12.

• Third tier revenue averages for the league exclude Texas and Oklahoma.
• After conference fees, the Big 12 Championship game and the Sugar Bowl payouts are divided equally amongst the members of the league. 
• The chart excludes payouts from the College Football Playoff as well bowl game payouts outside of the Sugar Bowl. In 2020-2021, the CFP distributed $78.3 million to the Big 12.

Big 12 w/ Texas & Oklahoma	20-21
Tier 1-2	$26.0*
Tier 3 (ESPN+)	$4.0
Tier 3 (Sponsorships, radio, etc.)	$11.0
Big 12 Championship ($20mm)	$2.0
Sugar Bowl ($30mm)	$3.0**
NCAA Championship (17-21)	$1.2
TOTAL	47.2

The chart below reflects an estimated potential earnings from all revenue streams within an athletic year which includes BYU, Cincinnati, UCF and Houston to programs within the Big 12.

• After conference fees, the Big 12 Championship game and the Sugar Bowl payouts are divided equally amongst the members of the league. 
• Lump sum payouts to the league for the Big 12 Championship game and Sugar Bowl are divided by 12 members rather than 10.
• The chart excludes potential payouts from the College Football Playoff as well bowl game payouts outside of the Sugar Bowl. In 2020-2021, the CFP distributed $78.3 million to the Big 12.

Big 12 w/ BYU, UC, UCF & UH
Tier 1-2	$22.0*
Tier 3 (ESPN+)	$4.0
Tier 3 (Sponsorships, radio, etc.)	$11.0
Big 12 Championship ($20mm)	$1.67
Sugar Bowl ($30mm)	$2.5**
NCAA Championship (17-21)	$1.2
TOTAL	$42.4

* Following Big 12 10% reduction
** Sugar Bowl 40mm payout minus team expenses

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Not Done at Four?

While the Big 12 currently appears to be set on four programs as the situation stands now, a final decision on the total number of programs the league should add is still fluid. 

SicEm365 has learned that there is push from active members of the Big 12 that the final addition total should be six programs and that the league should make the additions immediately.

If the decision is made to add six—with BYU, Cincinnati, UCF and Houston slotted in as the first four additions—Memphis and Boise State look to lead the way as its final two additions. With an eventual departure of both Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC, six new programs added to the league would bring the total membership of the league to 14 with presence in three time zones. 

One key piece of criteria for all potential candidates which the Big 12 considered, however, was financial commitment from the universities as well as financial support from boosters affiliated with the individual universities.

---

Additional Insight

• Big 12 is willing to work with BYU’s Sunday scheduling conflict
• BYU will add all athletic teams
• July 1, 2023 is preferred timeline for additions of BYU, Cincinnati, UCF and Houston
• That date doesn’t have impact on depature of Texas and Oklahoma to SEC
• All votes for the league need to be unanimous; if that includes Texas & Oklahoma is not clear

 

•  

Edited September 8, 2021 by Hiphopopotamos

[jinx 2635]

4 hours ago, DeadArmadillo said:

It's 54% out of state students.  It's pretty much the opposite of a commuter school.  $50K+ a year to attend.  Lots of kids from the Northeast and other parts of Florida.  Lots of us Jews head down there to try to blend in with the beautiful people and stay warm.  It's a pretty sweet area, too.  Coral Gables is the bomb 

This is correct. It is not a commuter school, FAU, FIU, UCF and USF are the state commuter schools. There is almost zero campus life at UM, but it is more like a northeast liberal arts school with 5,000 students than any of those above or a UH. The commenter that said you wouldn't know you were on campus unless someone told you is correct. It is VERY small and unassuming.

Is Rice a commuter school? Because that is what I would compare Miami to rather than SMU. It isn't as hard to get into as Rice, but much harder than SMU.

And Coral Gables is one of the most gorgeous, ridiculously extravagant places I have ever been. Beautiful people everywhere and Ferraris on every block.

[Texasrocks 2125]

Tell me this was written by Bowlsby without telling me it was written by Bowlsby...

Let me see if I understand this correctly. Under the current deal, 10 schools get $26 million each for a total of $260 million in tier 1 and 2 revenue. In the new deal, 12 schools will get $22 million for a total of $264 million. So the argument here is that the Big 12 is worth more without Texas and OU?

They should keep this quiet or the SEC might ditch Texas and OU and cash in on the BYU/Cincy/UCF/Houston gravy train.

[927 E. 41st 1124]

Seems like I'd be in favor of voting them in if you release me from my grant of rights. 

[Firemans4Horn 17851]

37 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Consider the source:

https://sicem365.com/s/10447/the-new-big-12s-revenue-potential-six-additions-instead-of-four

•  

 

[Bevo14 8275]

4 hours ago, DeadArmadillo said:

It's 54% out of state students.  It's pretty much the opposite of a commuter school.  $50K+ a year to attend.  Lots of kids from the Northeast and other parts of Florida.  Lots of us Jews head down there to try to blend in with the beautiful people and stay warm.  It's a pretty sweet area, too.  Coral Gables is the bomb 

It was somewhat tempting. I got a sizeable scholarship that made it comparable to UT cost-wise but not the full tuition one. It came with an additional side perk where they waive all your gen ed requirements or something. If I hadn't gotten into UT I might've picked it.

[Hiphopopotamos 20865]

 

[TKthunder2 4981]

2 hours ago, DFW Horn said:

...and aggy won't allow UT into the SEC

Oh, snap

Yes totally the same.  UTSA who just started their football program is UT and SMU is aggy…

1 hour ago, 'stache said:

Wut? I don't think it works that way in mid-major conferences. Plus, they'll want more than just SMU in Texas. Maybe not UNT since its too close to SMU. I think UTSA is kind of a shoo-in.

SMU blocked UNT from CUSA for years. Tulane blocked LA Tech, LA Tech is blocking Louisiana Lafayette.

UCF/USF we’re only a tier below the P5 Florida schools, and FAU/FIU we’re below them.  You think USF is going to welcome FAU?

Alabama tried to kill UAB football because Birmingham had a better academic reputation than Tuscaloosa.

You think Oklahoma State is going to welcome Tulsa into the Big 12?

These schools have a lot of perception issues that revolve around athletic conferences.  They don’t want to be on the same level as a school they consider below them, especially if they are in state due to recruiting and pride.

SMU and Tulane can stomach letting in Rice because it elevates a “peer” institution that they have lots of history with and is someone they won’t be embarrassed to associate with.  If they let in UTSA, who is not even a tier one institution, and they start losing to them they’ll further cement themselves in the third tier of athletics while their former peer institutions like TCU and UH have moved up in the world.

Look at the American teams

UConn, Louisville, Cincy, Houston, SMU, Rutgers, Memphis, UCF, USF, Temple

then after Rutgers/Louisville left

ECU, Tulane, Tulsa

Then Navy fb, Wichita State bb, and UConn left.

USF was in the Big East, they worked with the Big East to invite UCF in and now UCF has been elevated over them and will be the #4 university in Florida.

The rest of the schools know that can happen to them, East Carolina isn’t going to let Appalachian State in a fall to #6 in NC.

This talk about securing Florida is dumb, FAU/FIU are #6/7 in the state and aren’t going anywhere so if they get really good you can grab them later.

Rice and UAB have history with the former basically all but Temple and Wichita so my money would be on them.  Other than those Old Dominion, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia State (all can be the #3 fb schools in their respective states).  The Sun Belt conference has actually been better than CUSA lately so I think there is a high chance they take a risk on Coastal.

I also think they may try to lure some football only members in Army, Air Force, and (if desperate) UConn/UMass.

[Laxtonto 11934]

3 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

Yes totally the same.  UTSA who just started their football program is UT and SMU is aggy…

SMU blocked UNT from CUSA for years. Tulane blocked LA Tech, LA Tech is blocking Louisiana Lafayette.

UCF/USF we’re only a tier below the P5 Florida schools, and FAU/FIU we’re below them.  You think USF is going to welcome FAU?

Alabama tried to kill UAB football because Birmingham had a better academic reputation than Tuscaloosa.

You think Oklahoma State is going to welcome Tulsa into the Big 12?

These schools have a lot of perception issues that revolve around athletic conferences.  They don’t want to be on the same level as a school they consider below them, especially if they are in state due to recruiting and pride.

SMU and Tulane can stomach letting in Rice because it elevates a “peer” institution that they have lots of history with and is someone they won’t be embarrassed to associate with.  If they let in UTSA, who is not even a tier one institution, and they start losing to them they’ll further cement themselves in the third tier of athletics while their former peer institutions like TCU and UH have moved up in the world.

Look at the American teams

UConn, Louisville, Cincy, Houston, SMU, Rutgers, Memphis, UCF, USF, Temple

then after Rutgers/Louisville left

ECU, Tulane, Tulsa

Then Navy fb, Wichita State bb, and UConn left.

USF was in the Big East, they worked with the Big East to invite UCF in and now UCF has been elevated over them and will be the #4 university in Florida.

The rest of the schools know that can happen to them, East Carolina isn’t going to let Appalachian State in a fall to #6 in NC.

This talk about securing Florida is dumb, FAU/FIU are #6/7 in the state and aren’t going anywhere so if they get really good you can grab them later.

Rice and UAB have history with the former basically all but Temple and Wichita so my money would be on them.  Other than those Old Dominion, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia State (all can be the #3 fb schools in their respective states).  The Sun Belt conference has actually been better than CUSA lately so I think there is a high chance they take a risk on Coastal.

I also think they may try to lure some football only members in Army, Air Force, and (if desperate) UConn/UMass.

At some point it might be smart to see the AAC and CUSA both impload and sell all of their content to ESPN and move on to two separate regional conferences.

SMU can turn their thumb up at UNT and UTSA all they want, but if the AAC loses more teams, there is little to guarantee that ESPN will provide them that payout they had. At some point cutting costs in other sports will have to be considered to make up the losses tv revenue. 
 

 

[camel at sea 589]

East:   Buffalo, Army, Temple, Liberty, ECU, Georgia State, USF
West:  Air Force, Navy, Tulsa, SMU, UTSA, Rice, Tulane

 

This is probably how I'd do AAC expansion.  

[ChickenSandwich 9798]

ESPN has the LHN payout in its back pocket. ($160mill?). Texas and OU will end up “buying out” (not literally) the 4 new schools so they can leave earlier than their contracts stipulate. (And pay the higher buyouts). ESPN will play ball with the current contracts and FOX will as well (more content). 

[closetohumping 17408]

4 hours ago, 927 E. 41st said:

Seems like I'd be in favor of voting them in if you release me from my grant of rights. 

This.  And ESPN probably is not in the mood to restructure the contract and increase revenue with the addition of the new teams 

[Wishbone 4739]

5 hours ago, TrashMaster G said:

Make Baylor play their was back in.

Fuck that. Oh, wait, we’ll be gone. Nah, fuck that anyway.

[Hiphopopotamos 20865]

 

[kopp0e 1135]

9 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

Yes totally the same.  UTSA who just started their football program is UT and SMU is aggy…

SMU blocked UNT from CUSA for years. Tulane blocked LA Tech, LA Tech is blocking Louisiana Lafayette.

UCF/USF we’re only a tier below the P5 Florida schools, and FAU/FIU we’re below them.  You think USF is going to welcome FAU?

Alabama tried to kill UAB football because Birmingham had a better academic reputation than Tuscaloosa.

You think Oklahoma State is going to welcome Tulsa into the Big 12?

These schools have a lot of perception issues that revolve around athletic conferences.  They don’t want to be on the same level as a school they consider below them, especially if they are in state due to recruiting and pride.

SMU and Tulane can stomach letting in Rice because it elevates a “peer” institution that they have lots of history with and is someone they won’t be embarrassed to associate with.  If they let in UTSA, who is not even a tier one institution, and they start losing to them they’ll further cement themselves in the third tier of athletics while their former peer institutions like TCU and UH have moved up in the world.

Look at the American teams

UConn, Louisville, Cincy, Houston, SMU, Rutgers, Memphis, UCF, USF, Temple

then after Rutgers/Louisville left

ECU, Tulane, Tulsa

Then Navy fb, Wichita State bb, and UConn left.

USF was in the Big East, they worked with the Big East to invite UCF in and now UCF has been elevated over them and will be the #4 university in Florida.

The rest of the schools know that can happen to them, East Carolina isn’t going to let Appalachian State in a fall to #6 in NC.

This talk about securing Florida is dumb, FAU/FIU are #6/7 in the state and aren’t going anywhere so if they get really good you can grab them later.

Rice and UAB have history with the former basically all but Temple and Wichita so my money would be on them.  Other than those Old Dominion, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia State (all can be the #3 fb schools in their respective states).  The Sun Belt conference has actually been better than CUSA lately so I think there is a high chance they take a risk on Coastal.

I also think they may try to lure some football only members in Army, Air Force, and (if desperate) UConn/UMass.

Rice would be a good move for down the road too, if PAC wanted a "pair" of schools [with Houston] from the (old) 713 area code...

[kopp0e 1135]

8 hours ago, camel at sea said:

East:   Buffalo, Army, Temple, Liberty, ECU, Georgia State, USF
West:  Air Force, Navy, Tulsa, SMU, UTSA, Rice, Tulane

 

This is probably how I'd do AAC expansion.  

Do you ever see a day where Buffalo (State University of New York) is seriously looked over for a shot at adding the state of New York to B1G..?

[Dnaguy 11780]

16 minutes ago, kopp0e said:

Do you ever see a day where Buffalo (State University of New York) is seriously looked over for a shot at adding the state of New York to B1G..?

[ouflak 60]

12 hours ago, Texasrocks said:

Tell me this was written by Bowlsby without telling me it was written by Bowlsby...

Let me see if I understand this correctly. Under the current deal, 10 schools get $26 million each for a total of $260 million in tier 1 and 2 revenue. In the new deal, 12 schools will get $22 million for a total of $264 million. So the argument here is that the Big 12 is worth more without Texas and OU?

They should keep this quiet or the SEC might ditch Texas and OU and cash in on the BYU/Cincy/UCF/Houston gravy train.

If these number are even within 50% of the truth, it's only because OU and UT are unquestionably undervalued, and ESPN/Fox are willing to flip this bill in order to cash in on far bigger amounts from OU/UT in the SEC - along with a settlement to let the pair skate away scot-free or at a severely reduced amount.

Edited September 9, 2021 by ouflak

[LarryMoeSurly 411]

11 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

ESPN has the LHN payout in its back pocket. ($160mill?). Texas and OU will end up “buying out” (not literally) the 4 new schools so they can leave earlier than their contracts stipulate. (And pay the higher buyouts). ESPN will play ball with the current contracts and FOX will as well (more content). 

Only thing is, under this scenario, UT would pay for OU’s penalty fees. Fuck that. Maybe we could loan them the money for 20% interest. 

[DFW Horn 6118]

Quote

Big 12 w/ BYU, UC, UCF & UH
Tier 1-2	$22.0*
Tier 3 (ESPN+)	$4.0
Tier 3 (Sponsorships, radio, etc.)	$11.0
Big 12 Championship ($20mm)	$1.67
Sugar Bowl ($30mm)	$2.5**
NCAA Championship (17-21)	$1.2
TOTAL	$42.4

* Following Big 12 10% reduction
** Sugar Bowl 40mm payout minus team expenses

Wow, that's better than I thought the revamped Big 12 would do. Only a $4 MM pay cut annually? The Irate 8 should be very happy with this result. They can potentially make up the difference with an expanded CFB Playoff.

[Hiphopopotamos 20865]

Memphis and Boise?

[Js1 85143]

2 hours ago, DFW Horn said:

Wow, that's better than I thought the revamped Big 12 would do. Only a $4 MM pay cut annually? The Irate 8 should be very happy with this result. They can potentially make up the difference with an expanded CFB Playoff.

Curious if the SEC-Big 12 Sugar Bowl agreement lasts past 2025 (as far as the current contract goes).  

[jTower 225]

2 hours ago, DFW Horn said:

Wow, that's better than I thought the revamped Big 12 would do. Only a $4 MM pay cut annually? The Irate 8 should be very happy with this result. They can potentially make up the difference with an expanded CFB Playoff.

So does this mean damages would be limited to $32M (8 x $4m)?  $16M for each Texas and ousux?

[billfromlaketravis 11364]

44 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Memphis and Boise?

The Mouse must have given them the wink. 

Let Texas/OU leave amicably, absorb the best of the AAC/expand to 16, and ESPN will make the TV money work after Fox is out of the picture. 

Edited September 9, 2021 by billfromlaketravis

[Vertigo 20271]

3 hours ago, LarryMoeSurly said:

Only thing is, under this scenario, UT would pay for OU’s penalty fees. Fuck that. Maybe we could loan them the money for 20% interest. 

Would you honestly expect them to make their payments on time?

[Hiphopopotamos 20865]

1 minute ago, Vertigo said:

Would you honestly expect them to make their payments on time?

OU is going to have to Rent-A-Center their Big12 exit.

[Burt Macklin 19000]

3 hours ago, DFW Horn said:

Wow, that's better than I thought the revamped Big 12 would do. Only a $4 MM pay cut annually? The Irate 8 should be very happy with this result. They can potentially make up the difference with an expanded CFB Playoff.

 

37 minutes ago, jTower said:

So does this mean damages would be limited to $32M (8 x $4m)?  $16M for each Texas and ousux?

Maybe y’all shouldn’t run with made up numbers from an article written by a Baylor site. 
 

Think about it, why would 4 schools who currently make $9 mil per year off Tier 1 rights, suddenly increase the Irate 8 from about $10mm per year (after UT and OU leave) up to $22mm per year like that article claims? 
 

And idk what the Sugar Bowl contract looks like, but there’s no way the Big 12 keeps it long term. 

[jTower 225]

36 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

 

Maybe y’all shouldn’t run with made up numbers from an article written by a Baylor site. 
 

Think about it, why would 4 schools who currently make $9 mil per year off Tier 1 rights, suddenly increase the Irate 8 from about $10mm per year (after UT and OU leave) up to $22mm per year like that article claims? 
 

And idk what the Sugar Bowl contract looks like, but there’s no way the Big 12 keeps it long term. 

Agreed, the values maybe specious, but if the payout is at that level, how would that affect the damages and ultimately the payout required to leave XII-2-2+2-2+4+x?  

And would it serve the SEC to keep the Sugar Bowl contract intact to mollify the ir8?  It would also give the SEC some OOC games.

Edited September 9, 2021 by jTower

[Texasrocks 2125]

The Big 12 championship game numbers are suspect as well. Is ESPN really going to pay $20 million for ISU vs Cincy?

Given that the Big 12 is already talking further expansion, there has to be some behind-the-scenes outline of a future deal. That probably means there's at least a tentative agreement that the Big 12 lets Texas and OU go in return for a reduced payout and a highly subsidized TV contract.

[BurntOrange&White 39706]

1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

The Mouse must have given them the wink. 

Let Texas/OU leave amicably, absorb the best of the AAC/expand to 16, and ESPN will make the TV money work after Fox is out of the picture. 

Sounds like a reasonable guess to me.

[utee94 15746]

8 minutes ago, jTower said:

Agreed, the values maybe specious, but if the payout is at that level, how would that affect the damages and ultimately the payout required to leave XII-2-2+2-2+4+x?  

And would it serve the SEC to keep the Sugar Bowl contract intact to mollify the ir8?  It would also give the SEC some OOC games.

If the B12 makes the same from the TV deals after TX and OU leave, as before, then there are no damages, and TX and OU would pay nothing, with respect to the GOR contract.  They'd still be on the hook for some portion of the exit penalties.

And if The Alliance is making moves to freeze out the SEC, then the B12 will become a pretty important scheduling partner for the SEC.