Realignment talk not going away

[n64ra 1078]

11 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I don't think they will, at least not initially, and within a few years I think the conference will be better competitively than the PAC and non-Clemson ACC.

Perhaps, but that feels more like wishful thinking. Is BYU the biggest brand in the new Big 12? Doesn't hold a candle to USC, UO, FSU, UNC...

[Hurtlocker 2208]

7 minutes ago, n64ra said:

Perhaps, but that feels more like wishful thinking. Is BYU the biggest brand in the new Big 12? Doesn't hold a candle to USC, UO, FSU, UNC...

I don't think he meant brands, I think he meant performance.

[Huckleberry 32710]

28 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I don't think they will, at least not initially, and within a few years I think the conference will be better competitively than the PAC and non-Clemson ACC.

It's possible, and I have no problem with that outcome. But losing a conference presence in the major Texas population centers is going to hurt. And no, Tech+Houston doesn't really capture those recruiting grounds. Those two schools may have enough cachet to recruit those areas themselves, but not sure about enough to support conference partners also consistently getting good talent from there.

I can see the new Big 12 being in a consistent 4th/5th situation along with the Pac-12, but consistently in front of it is a bit hopeful, imo.

[Saint Austin 745]

44 minutes ago, n64ra said:

Now that Big 12 expansion is official, when do the SEC, ACC, Big 10, and Pac-12 push to change Power 5 to Power 4 (and thus Group of 5 to Group of 6)?

I don't see this happening, at least not anytime soon. The Big East kept its status as a power conference several years after Miami and VaTech left and continued to do so until the ACC picked off the best of the rest. I suspect the same thing will occur here when "The Alliance" finally decides to partition the best of the new Big 12 in the next five or so years.

[Hurtlocker 2208]

In other news:

Amazon likely front-runner for multiyear NFL Sunday Ticket deal, sources say

Quote

The NFL is expected to ask for $2 billion to $2.5 billion per year for the package and wants to wrap up discussions before the season ends in February, two of the people said. “Sunday Ticket” has been owned by DirecTV for the past 27 years. Talks are progressing with interested parties, suggesting the league is getting closer to choosing a new provider, said the people.

DirecTV, which AT&T spun out as a new company last month, renewed “Sunday Ticket” in 2014 for eight years. The current contract ends after the 2022-23 season.

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell told CNBC on Wednesday the out-of-market Sunday game package “maybe will be more attractive on a digital platform” as streaming platforms continue to add subscribers at the expense of traditional pay-television. Goodell also suggested to CNBC that the league is looking for one strategic partner to acquire not only “Sunday Ticket” rights but to also invest in NFL Network, which airs NFL content all year, and NFL RedZone, which shows live footage of game action when teams are close to scoring touchdowns. The NFL currently owns both NFL Network and NFL RedZone.

 

ESPN is very interested in this content, but is at the point of over extending themselves on rights deals and this would equate to around 25% of ESPN's total revenue, which is already 40% of Disney's media networks revenue.   

Amazon, on the other hand, makes around 2.5x ESPN's revenue off prime subscriptions alone (and they're heavily in bed with the NFL with AWS Next Gen Stats and buying TNF for a bill/year) and is up to 150m subscribers in the US (twice ESPN's).   This would only represent 10% of their total prime revenue, which only makes up 6% of Amazon's total revenue.  

Additionally, this deal would be larger than every CFB network deal, combined, and basically accomplished with Amazon's pocket change.

So, ESPN is starting to feel a threat they can't compete with in the long run.   Odds are they're going to try and lock up as much as they can in the next year to hold it at bay.   This would include buying the Texas/OU rights (perhaps by shoring up the Big 12) and placating the "Alliance" with a post season plan they continue to control, that doesn't have to go to market.

[UncleBuck 6448]

Any good, recent write-ups and/or takes from the media (excluding Bohls) as to how this Big 12 news affects the speed of Texas and OU's departure?

[TKthunder2 4981]

30 minutes ago, Saint Austin said:

I don't see this happening, at least not anytime soon. The Big East kept its status as a power conference several years after Miami and VaTech left and continued to do so until the ACC picked off the best of the rest. I suspect the same thing will occur here when "The Alliance" finally decides to partition the best of the new Big 12 in the next five or so years.

They lost…

Miami/Virginia Tech in 2004

Boston College in 2005

West Virginia in 2012

Pitt/Syracuse in 2013

Louisville in 2014

But they were losing their ‘status’ as a AQ conference starting around 2008 which is why they tried to bring in TCU back in 2011 before the Big 12 took them in because they needed their rankings in order to justify keeping the AQ status.

I don’t think you’ll see that situation happen here, because the remaining 8 are strong enough to keep closer to the PAC/ACC and stay above the American and MWC (and if worst comes to worst they can raid either of them so for once middle of the country geography works in their favor).

I think they’ll keep their autonomy designation (assuming that’s still a thing after December) but I’d not sure they retain an automatic bid to a major bowl game.  They should be a shoe in to make the playoff each year under the 12 team system but I don’t think they keep the Sugar Bowl tie in after the current contract expires.  Maybe the Cotton or Fiesta bowl will give them a spot but I doubt it since those games aren’t going to be worth as much and they’d rather take their chance on getting better brands than what the Big 12 can offer.  Not saying they won’t take a Big 12 team when they are ranked high, just that the last thing they want is to be stuck with a forced matchup when one team in barely in the top 25 (like these “historical“ games below). 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Fiesta_Bowl

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Fiesta_Bowl

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Fiesta_Bowl

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Sugar_Bowl

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Orange_Bowl

The ACC was barely able to get an automatic bid with the Orange Bowl last time around and had to partner with ND, the SEC and B1G to get it, so I think that’s the same position the Big 12 will find itself in after 2027 when the Sugar Bowl agreement expires.  If the SEC partners with the ACC for a major bowl I see the Big 12 getting left out unless they do their own ACC/Orange Bowl type agreement, which is why if I was the Big 12 I’d be negotiating a long term extension of the Sugar Bowl in exchange for a full release of Texas and Oklahoma while you have the leverage.  But again, with a 12 team playoff it might now matter as much anyways.

[kopp0e 1135]

Some hot air..?

Or, a legit conjecture on future moves in about a decade..? (Meh, a PAC mouthpiece can't be pissed XII might survive, eh)..?

 

[Randolph Duke 4034]

3 hours ago, 'stache said:

If a network broadcasts a game without owning the rights, there are a ton of problems even beyond contract law. That's why it will need to be negotiated and bought out before a move is practical.

If they didn't have the broadcast rights, the school wouldn't allow the broadcast equipment truck to be on campus, let alone allow them to set up the broadcast equipment.

[pops 6975]

1 hour ago, Hurtlocker said:

In other news:

Amazon likely front-runner for multiyear NFL Sunday Ticket deal, sources say

 

ESPN is very interested in this content, but is at the point of over extending themselves on rights deals and this would equate to around 25% of ESPN's total revenue, which is already 40% of Disney's media networks revenue.   

Amazon, on the other hand, makes around 2.5x ESPN's revenue off prime subscriptions alone (and they're heavily in bed with the NFL with AWS Next Gen Stats and buying TNF for a bill/year) and is up to 150m subscribers in the US (twice ESPN's).   This would only represent 10% of their total prime revenue, which only makes up 6% of Amazon's total revenue.  

Additionally, this deal would be larger than every CFB network deal, combined, and basically accomplished with Amazon's pocket change.

So, ESPN is starting to feel a threat they can't compete with in the long run.   Odds are they're going to try and lock up as much as they can in the next year to hold it at bay.   This would include buying the Texas/OU rights (perhaps by shoring up the Big 12) and placating the "Alliance" with a post season plan they continue to control, that doesn't have to go to market.

This is the most interesting thing about all of this. Espn has no chance against Amazon if they really want to jump in to the college scene. Bezos could pay every playoff team 100m every year and it would be a blip on his radar. 

I think in 5-10 years we will all be consuming more live sports on Amazon/ Netflix than cable. 

[SimonBolivar 10949]

5 hours ago, 'stache said:

What are they supposed to do? 

bingo

[Jasper_Jester 356]

2 minutes ago, pops said:

This is the most interesting thing about all of this. Espn has no chance against Amazon if they really want to jump in to the college scene. Bezos could pay every playoff team 100m every year and it would be a blip on his radar. 

I think in 5-10 years we will all be consuming more live sports on Amazon/ Netflix than cable. 

It seems strange to me that Amazon's revenue (which is primarily from AWS and then retail services) is lumped together with its revenue related its entertainment arm, but ESPN, which is part of the Disney, ABC, 21st Century Fox is being viewed as a stand alone entity. I highly doubt that an entertainment empire is letting a internet website, cloud storage, and mail order company with a side hustle streaming service (with third tier content) completely take over its bread and butter without a fight....But, we will see.

[pops 6975]

2 minutes ago, Jasper_Jester said:

It seems strange to me that Amazon's revenue (which is primarily from AWS and then retail services) is lumped together with its revenue related its entertainment arm, but ESPN, which is part of the Disney, ABC, 21st Century Fox is being viewed as a stand alone entity. I highly doubt that an entertainment empire is letting a internet website, cloud storage, and mail order company with a side hustle streaming service (with third tier content) completely take over its bread and butter without a fight....But, we will see.

I can see that,  and obviously Disney has their own successful streaming platform, but between espn+ and Disney + they have approximately 55 million subscribers based on the numbers I could find. Prime has 150 million (these are all US only numbers) 

Obviously espn is in every basic cable package in the country so they have access to more eyeballs at the moment but I'm not sure how long people are going to just keep paying the cable company for 200 channels they never watch. Will be interesting to see it play out. 

[F250 28715]

7 hours ago, bullet said:

I'm not good at this.  What we really need is a red and blue cougar finally walking through the window---and seeing another window.

[notre dame joe 173]

IMO UCF was a mistake.  There is barely kinda sorta geographic community in the Big12 which could helped with a Colorado State or a Memphis. 

 

It reminds me of how UCF played one year in the MAC.  It an arrangement designed to fail.

[Left Coast 863]

6 minutes ago, notre dame joe said:

IMO UCF was a mistake.  There is barely kinda sorta geographic community in the Big12 which could helped with a Colorado State or a Memphis. 

 

It reminds me of how UCF played one year in the MAC.  It an arrangement designed to fail.

West Virginia has been even farther away from the rest of the B12 schools.  Where else would UCF go? ACC? SEC?  UCF is a better market with better on field performance than Memphis or Colorado St.

[TKthunder2 4981]

44 minutes ago, kopp0e said:

Some hot air..?

Or, a legit conjecture on future moves in about a decade..? (Meh, a PAC mouthpiece can't be pissed XII might survive, eh)..?

 

I mean it’s legit but not immediate, the SEC will be good at 16 for the time being and the “alliance” seems committed to the current model for now.  But there are multiple ways this could happen…

Option 1:  A meeting of the five families option - USC, Oregon, Ohio St, Michigan, Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Florida, Clemson, and ND get in a room a design a new system they want to be a part of for all sports.  Looking at TV numbers, state/metro population/enrollment/stadium size, social media engagement, basketball/baseball/other sports of note, and even academics (as a tie breaker) and come up with the top X# of schools and form their new organization cutting ties with the Wake Forest, Oregon State, Mississippi State, and Purdues of the world.  Likely ending in the smallest grouping of schools to get the most bang for their buck, 40 or less.

Option 2: SEC takeover- if the Big Ten doesn’t make any moves and their football crazy schools along their Southern border like Ohio St, Penn St and Nebraska (the most vocal ones last year) start to becoming jealous of the SEC’s recruiting, tv exposure, and money and reach out wanting to join the party then it puts the SEC in the driver’s seat to pick off anyone else they want like Michigan or Wisconsin and ultimately anyone from the other conferences too.  This option likely ends up with more schools than option 1 maybe around 40-48 since there will be a few weaker legacy SEC schools still in the system.

Option 3: Big Ten initiated raids - if the B1G starts losing TV viewers and recruits to the SEC then they will raid their alliance partners for their power football schools to bring renewed interest and excitement to their conference slate.  The easiest, most obvious move would be to take all the AAU PAC12 schools and making a 24 team coast to coast conference of “academic” like mind institutions. This keeps their historical Rose Bowl partnership alive and cuts away the dead weight from the PAC schools and give them the ability to negotiate a TV deal for 24 schools and get the BTN on TVs all along the West coast’s major cities.  Move Nebraska and Iowa to the PAC side of the conference and play their CCG at the Rose Bowl keeping that tradition alive.  This would likely trigger the SEC to similarly focus on securing the best ACC schools and lead to a two league system like the NFC/AFC ending with a college “super” national championship bowl.  This option likely would be the most inclusive with the B1G stretching from coast to coast and the SEC taking a good number of ACC schools too probably ends up with 48-64 since their will be plenty of weaker legacy SEC/B1G schools still in the system.

[CleverNickname 1296]

BYU, UCF, Cini, and UH are just so excited to join the Hateful 8. It's adorable. I wish them luck. 

[Pancho 44533]

41 minutes ago, notre dame joe said:

IMO UCF was a mistake.  There is barely kinda sorta geographic community in the Big12 which could helped with a Colorado State or a Memphis. 

 

It reminds me of how UCF played one year in the MAC.  It an arrangement designed to fail.

ESPN doesn’t give a shit about “Geographic community.” This isn’t the 80s.

[Barbacoa 1934]

The NFL lite model is not a joke. The whole thing will be unrecognizable in 10 years. 

[bullet 1596]

1 hour ago, notre dame joe said:

IMO UCF was a mistake.  There is barely kinda sorta geographic community in the Big12 which could helped with a Colorado State or a Memphis. 

 

It reminds me of how UCF played one year in the MAC.  It an arrangement designed to fail.

I wouldn't have taken them.  It would have been Memphis, Colorado St. or SMU for #4.  UCF is the best football program, but I don't see them helping the rest of the Big 12 beyond TV ratings when they are good.  If they are bad, absolutely nobody cares.  The others would at least get some interest.  I don't see them helping the Big 12 recruit Florida.  Florida is just not a fit.  Several UT coaches have discovered that.  Nebraska has had a face plant with Florida recruiting.  And its the most competitive market in the country.  Saw an analysis a couple years ago where it was top source for recruits for ACC and Big 10 and 2nd for SEC (after Georgia).  All 3 got pretty close to the same number.

[WBT 20440]

1 hour ago, Barbacoa said:

The NFL lite model is not a joke. The whole thing will be unrecognizable in 10 years. 

it's the dismal tide

[bullet 1596]

6 minutes ago, WBT said:

it's the dismal tide

Well Saban will retire one of these days.  And the Tide will have a dismal period for a few years.  Maybe he's waiting for Mack to retire.  He's only about 9 wins ahead, #6 on the all time list with Mack at #9.

[Jasper_Jester 356]

2 hours ago, pops said:

I can see that,  and obviously Disney has their own successful streaming platform, but between espn+ and Disney + they have approximately 55 million subscribers based on the numbers I could find. Prime has 150 million (these are all US only numbers) 

Obviously espn is in every basic cable package in the country so they have access to more eyeballs at the moment but I'm not sure how long people are going to just keep paying the cable company for 200 channels they never watch. Will be interesting to see it play out. 

150M people use Prime Video? that is crazy! there is nothing on that service ever!

[TKthunder2 4981]

2 minutes ago, Jasper_Jester said:

150M people use Prime Video? that is crazy! there is nothing on that service ever!

That is the number of unique Prime subscribers that have ever watched anything on Prime including simply watching movies they own or have rented.  That is not usage numbers which would be more indicative of the value of the video service, as the majority of people pay for Prime for the two days shipping and not the video service.  Prime just bought MGM to improve the service so I can see them making a play for some conference rights but I doubt it’s going to pay huge money, it likely will just raise the floor a little bit.

[Pancho 44533]

 

[Barbacoa 1934]

Probably just bought their cooperation. 

[Jasper_Jester 356]

1 minute ago, Pancho said:

 

so, a gentleman's agreement....Hopefully Oklahoma is doing the same right now with OSU.

[Deej 76592]

41 minutes ago, bullet said:

Florida is just not a fit.  Several UT coaches have discovered that.

[Js1 85147]

12 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Fuck no thanks 

[LTtxfan 49012]

1 hour ago, CleverNickname said:

BYU, UCF, Cini, and UH are just so excited to join the Hateful 8. It's adorable. I wish them luck. 

[billfromlaketravis 11364]

14 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

F***

[LTtxfan 49012]

14 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Please tell me this is bullshit...

[BurntOrange&White 39709]

16 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Actually fucking retarded. Fuck Tech and goodbye big 12

[BurntOrange&White 39709]

12 minutes ago, Jasper_Jester said:

so, a gentleman's agreement....Hopefully Oklahoma is doing the same right now with OSU.

They’re not. 

[Horny Bull 2759]

18 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

[MrBig 5290]

So Tech will now be our annual Rice game while we’re in the SEC 

[TKthunder2 4981]

22 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Holy shit, wow did not see that coming.

[Doc Reeves 6434]

 

Fucking bullshit.

you get out, then you call them drunk

[billfromlaketravis 11364]

20 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Yeah there’s no silver lining if we stick to it. It’ll become the most important game in Tech history every year while just being the game after Rice on our schedule. 
 

Again if we stick to it, I think the Tech politicians made some headway on the PUF redistribution. If even remotely accurate well done you stupid assholes. Football is more important to you than billions of dollars annually. 
 

Another thought: could be an indicator the SEC wants to stick with the 8 game conference schedule. I find it difficult to believe we’d give Tech a game if we only had 2-3 OOC spots every year. 

[ClubWhatever 12087]

Iss ok.  Texas fans who couldn’t get admitted will be able to see a game.  

[TKthunder2 4981]

4 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

They’re not. 

“While Oklahoma’s president wants the rivalry game to continue, Oklahoma State’s president is much less certain.”

https://thespun.com/more/top-stories/oklahoma-oklahoma-state-bedlam-doubt

OU offered, but despite possibly going back to 8 conference games OSU doesn’t want to play more than a single OOC with a pulse each year so they’re saying no.

https://fbschedules.com/ncaa/oklahoma-state/

[bullet 1596]

1 minute ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Yeah there’s no silver lining if we stick to it. It’ll become the most important game in Tech history every year while just being the game after Rice on our schedule. 
 

Again if we stick to it, I think the Tech politicians made some headway on the PUF redistribution. If even remotely accurate well done you stupid assholes. Football is more important to you than billions of dollars annually. 
 

Another thought: could be an indicator the SEC wants to stick with the 8 game conference schedule. I find it difficult to believe we’d give Tech a game if we only had 2-3 OOC spots every year. 

The latter was my thought.  Why would we tie up our 10th game every year?

[billfromlaketravis 11364]

1 minute ago, bullet said:

The latter was my thought.  Why would we tie up our 10th game every year?

UTSA and UTEP desperately needs the mother ship game on their schedule to survive. I doubt we drop them. 
 

Rice probably gets the chop if we’re forced into a long term Tech series. 
 

The BMD’s love them destination games against the Big Ten and PAC 12. 

9 SEC conference games, UTSA/UTEP, Tech, and a Alliance blood blood would be a very tough schedule. 

[DanTheHorn 4902]

I think the Tech game plus OU offer will be accompanied by additional SEC school offers to play BIG 12 schools to get us there by 2022 and as aggy found out gentleman's agreements hold up well when made by the SEC.

[Azbadlands 109]

1 hour ago, DanTheHorn said:

I think the Tech game plus OU offer will be accompanied by additional SEC school offers to play BIG 12 schools to get us there by 2022 and as aggy found out gentleman's agreements hold up well when made by the SEC.

I bet you're right and ESPN needs all the votes they can get in regards to playoff expansion (number of autobids for SEC and getting expansion done before the current contract expires and it goes up for bidding on the open market)..

  So, seems logical they would talk the SEC schools into a form of alliance with irate 8 / plus 4 new schools...

Edited September 11, 2021 by Azbadlands

[pops 6975]

2 hours ago, Jasper_Jester said:

150M people use Prime Video? that is crazy! there is nothing on that service ever!

No clue if they use it,  but they pay for it. Kind of like espn on cable. 

[mdmost 42874]

Man, that's pathetic. Err, I mean congrats Cincinnati!

 

[notre dame joe 173]

 

 

 

On 9/10/2021 at 3:48 PM, Left Coast said:

West Virginia has been even farther away from the rest of the B12 schools.  Where else would UCF go? ACC? SEC?  UCF is a better market with better on field performance than Memphis or Colorado St.

I said it way back when.  The Falkland Island Neers showed that that Big12 was unsustainable. 

On 9/10/2021 at 5:30 PM, bullet said:

I wouldn't have taken them.  It would have been Memphis, Colorado St. or SMU for #4.  UCF is the best football program, but I don't see them helping the rest of the Big 12 beyond TV ratings when they are good.  If they are bad, absolutely nobody cares.  The others would at least get some interest.  I don't see them helping the Big 12 recruit Florida.  Florida is just not a fit.  Several UT coaches have discovered that.  Nebraska has had a face plant with Florida recruiting.  And its the most competitive market in the country.  Saw an analysis a couple years ago where it was top source for recruits for ACC and Big 10 and 2nd for SEC (after Georgia).  All 3 got pretty close to the same number.

I was somewhat surprised to read articles about how ND was pulling out of Florida to focus on Georgia. 

[thunderlounge 7763]

10 hours ago, notre dame joe said:

 

 

 

I said it way back when.  The Falkland Island Neers showed that that Big12 was unsustainable. 

I was somewhat surprised to read articles about how ND was pulling out of Florida to focus on Georgia. 

How the fuck is that even possible? We all know catholics don’t pull out.