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Posted by Sandbagging Steve,

How many teams will be left when the dust settles in a few years? I think there's a way for all the teams to still have some involvement. I will explain that at the end of this list. Here's my list of the top 32 programs and a list if it goes to 48. There's some debate if it goes to 48, but not much debate if it stops at 32. I guess one could debate Arizona State, but that's about it. The top 32 at least come close to carrying their own weight. Everyone below that line is losing money for t

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https://www.oklahoman.com/story/sports/columns/berry-tramel/2022/03/23/big-12-conference-realignment-14-team-league-mike-gundy-oklahoma-state-football/7138437001/#l14r6k7m8lft1llr4ah

Bowlsby, Gundy on Big 12:

 

"The Big 12 seems likely to be a 14-team conference in 2023-24 and perhaps the year after that. But Mike Gundy says he believes the Big 12 could settle into a 14-team league even after OU and Texas flee to the Southeastern Conference. 

“We could be at 14 very easily, five years from now, from what I’m hearing,” Gundy said Tuesday. 

“I think there’s strength in numbers. When you watch this thing, the Big 12 always had some issues, because people would say, there’s only 10 (members).” 

Gundy’s assertion is not groundbreaking. Others have mentioned further Big 12 expansion, including commissioner Bob Bowlsby. 

“We’ll play with 14 for awhile,” Bowlsby told me awhile back. “Then we’ll fall back to 12, and we’ll reassess at that point. That could entail looking at targets for additional expansion, it could entail a strategy to get larger....

 

“Just like BYU,” Gundy said. “Everybody thought BYU was a Power 5 school forever. I used to flip (channels), and I’d stop and watch ‘em. I think Boise does grab people’s attention.” 

Alas, the 14th school is not so apparent. That’s where the Big 12 could be in danger of becoming watered down. Memphis and Southern Methodist are traditional expansion candidates. But Memphis has done little to invest in its athletic department – the Tigers have neither their own football stadium or basketball coliseum – and SMU’s fan base has been minimal going on 40 years, since the Pony Express scandals of the 1980s....

 

A 14-member Big 12 would be culture shock for many. It would include only six original Big 12 members – OSU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Iowa State and Kansas. 

But culture shock has become the norm in college athletics. "

 

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Aggy should abstain so the vote is 13-0 and then we can then brand it on their dog.

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camel at sea

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On 3/24/2022 at 10:10 AM, bullet said:

https://www.oklahoman.com/story/sports/columns/berry-tramel/2022/03/23/big-12-conference-realignment-14-team-league-mike-gundy-oklahoma-state-football/7138437001/#l14r6k7m8lft1llr4ah

Bowlsby, Gundy on Big 12:

 

"The Big 12 seems likely to be a 14-team conference in 2023-24 and perhaps the year after that. But Mike Gundy says he believes the Big 12 could settle into a 14-team league even after OU and Texas flee to the Southeastern Conference. 

“We could be at 14 very easily, five years from now, from what I’m hearing,” Gundy said Tuesday. 

“I think there’s strength in numbers. When you watch this thing, the Big 12 always had some issues, because people would say, there’s only 10 (members).” 

Gundy’s assertion is not groundbreaking. Others have mentioned further Big 12 expansion, including commissioner Bob Bowlsby. 

“We’ll play with 14 for awhile,” Bowlsby told me awhile back. “Then we’ll fall back to 12, and we’ll reassess at that point. That could entail looking at targets for additional expansion, it could entail a strategy to get larger....

 

“Just like BYU,” Gundy said. “Everybody thought BYU was a Power 5 school forever. I used to flip (channels), and I’d stop and watch ‘em. I think Boise does grab people’s attention.” 

Alas, the 14th school is not so apparent. That’s where the Big 12 could be in danger of becoming watered down. Memphis and Southern Methodist are traditional expansion candidates. But Memphis has done little to invest in its athletic department – the Tigers have neither their own football stadium or basketball coliseum – and SMU’s fan base has been minimal going on 40 years, since the Pony Express scandals of the 1980s....

 

A 14-member Big 12 would be culture shock for many. It would include only six original Big 12 members – OSU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Iowa State and Kansas. 

But culture shock has become the norm in college athletics. "

 

So once Texas and OU are gone, who are #13 and #14?  

I think Colorado St is an institutional fit and has the facilities (which I guess demonstrates commitment to athletics.)  But the fan support is not there for football and they haven't really been that good in the MWC over the last 20 years.  

USF is an academic fit but doesn't have the facilities in place or the fan support currently.

Memphis is the best athletics fit but has stadium issues and is not a great fit academically (which the Presidents will care about.)  

Boise is Memphis but without basketball, with much worse geography, and a non-existent surrounding recruiting base. 

SMU is probably the best athletics/academics combo, with the best geography, and the most built-in rivalries, but they're probably out b/c the market they represent is already covered as well as it can be.  I think the intra-conference politics for inviting SMU will be bad for them, too.

Tulane kind of works. Academic fit.  Non-redundant geography.  Deep donor pockets.  Decent recent football team (3 bowls in a row before 2021.)  New football stadium.  But the fan support is extremely weak.

 

 

If It were me, I'd hold at 12 and wait for one of the above to become more worthy (Colorado State wins in football and draws some fans; Memphis keeps winning in football and irons out its stadium future.)  Alternatively, maybe the Big 12 can make a run at Louisville if the ACC gets raided in a decade.      

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Hurtlocker

Hurtlocker 2,219

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On 3/30/2022 at 3:10 PM, camel at sea said:

So once Texas and OU are gone, who are #13 and #14?  

...

If It were me, I'd hold at 12 and wait for one of the above to become more worthy (Colorado State wins in football and draws some fans; Memphis keeps winning in football and irons out its stadium future.)  Alternatively, maybe the Big 12 can make a run at Louisville if the ACC gets raided in a decade.      

Yeah I would imagine the pitch would be "Be like Cinci/UCF - Invest, win and we'll talk."   There isn't anyone where you want them (e.g. east of the Mississippi) who are ready to go.   You almost need to do the B1G/Rutgers thing and build them up over a decade.

Memphis makes the most geographic sense, probably should have snagged, them and Louisville when grabbing West Virginia.  USF is starting to build an on-campus stadium, which the B12 seems to be pushing as a must have (see Memphis), which could put them in the running too.   I still don't see Boise, which likely means it is a done deal.   The only redeeming quality they really have is football success.   And with that success they average 36k in attendance.

It still wouldn't surprise me to see the B12/P12 join forces or seeing a media pooling concept.   When Amazon can use pocket change to pay a billion a year for the Thursday night NFL game, why buy the rights to one conference, when you can buy the rights to four and market the ever living fuck out of college football for 3b?

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camel at sea

camel at sea 589

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4 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

Yeah I would imagine the pitch would be "Be like Cinci/UCF - Invest, win and we'll talk."   There isn't anyone where you want them (e.g. east of the Mississippi) who are ready to go.   You almost need to do the B1G/Rutgers thing and build them up over a decade.

Memphis makes the most geographic sense, probably should have snagged, them and Louisville when grabbing West Virginia.  USF is starting to build an on-campus stadium, which the B12 seems to be pushing as a must have (see Memphis), which could put them in the running too.   I still don't see Boise, which likely means it is a done deal.   The only redeeming quality they really have is football success.   And with that success they average 36k in attendance.

It still wouldn't surprise me to see the B12/P12 join forces or seeing a media pooling concept.   When Amazon can use pocket change to pay a billion a year for the Thursday night NFL game, why buy the rights to one conference, when you can buy the rights to four and market the ever living fuck out of college football for 3b?

Yeah.  USF apparently has a site selected for a stadium and has started fundraising.  But this means they're probably 5+ years away from that being a reality at the very earliest.  
https://www.usf.edu/news/2022/usf-committee-recommends-site-for-on-campus-football-stadium-5-million-gift-announced-to-advance-the-project.aspx

I think Memphis could probably avoid having to do an on-campus stadium if the city of Memphis pitched in big, along with FedEx, for a serious nine figure renovation of the Liberty Bowl.  But they've still got to get it done.  That said, on-campus would probably be preferred.  The Tigers make the most geographic sense and I think they'd transition to P5 most quickly from a fan support standpoint (they could draw 45-50K crowds consistently for football, and 15K for basketball if the NCAA doesn't nuke them from orbit.) 

But yeah.  If it were me making decisions for the Big 12, I'd set the investment parameters for the G5 schools and then see what shakes out with the ACC or PAC.  There are some schools like Louisville, Pitt, Miami, etc., that probably wouldn't get picked up by the Big 2 in the fallout of a raid of the SEC.  Alternatively if the big brands on the West Coast join the B1G, there will be some value leftover in the PAC as well.        

Short term, assuming no more major realignment earthquakes, partnering with the PAC makes a ton of sense.  If I'm CBS or Amazon, I'd be nervous about the slate of Tier 1 content from either of those conferences individually.  But if you combine them and let me pick a game of the week from both combined, then there's much more of a guarantee that the game will draw eyeballs.  SC-Oregon one week.  OK State-WVU the next.  That's not bad.     

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Hurtlocker

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On 4/1/2022 at 4:13 PM, BigHornedLurker said:

unpopular opinion and all, but I was pushing for Tulane when A&M and Mizzou left. 

Build them up, get some fun road trips, and recruit the heck out of Louisiana. 

Not that it matters any more, but I still think it was a mistake not to take them and Louisville when the opportunity was there. 

Yeah, great school   With you there.   20k average attendance is a major issue.

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TexasBuckeye

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FCS school Murry State in Kentucky has joined the Missouri Valley Football  Conference starting 2023-24. They will be the 12th team. Their non-football sports will join the Missouri Valley Conference (not related to the MVFC) Gotta keep this thread relevant.

Murray State Football To Join Missouri Valley Football Conference July of 2023

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camel at sea

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1 hour ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Not football related, but Boise State to the Big East in all sports but football?

 

 

I guess this makes some sense if they pair up with Gonzaga as "travel partners."  They could probably pull off Indy football but the media payout for that would be the big thing.  

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14 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Not football related, but Boise State to the Big East in all sports but football?

I can’t imagine the Big East would take them and seems like really odd timing for a Big 12 invite.

If it’s not just some donation fundraising tactic my guess is Big West all sports and independent in football (the BYU model).

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On 4/1/2022 at 4:13 PM, BigHornedLurker said:

unpopular opinion and all, but I was pushing for Tulane when A&M and Mizzou left. 

Build them up, get some fun road trips, and recruit the heck out of Louisiana. 

Not that it matters any more, but I still think it was a mistake not to take them and Louisville when the opportunity was there. 

Tulane is at the bottom of the AAC in revenue, about $10 million behind Rice.  They just don't seem to be willing to pay to play.

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USF gets a $5 million gift towards their stadium.

https://tampa.cbslocal.com/2022/04/07/usf-receives-a-5-million-gift-for-on-campus-football-stadium/

"...When the stadium site selection was announced, longtime USF supporters Carol and Frank Morsani committed $5 million to the project in the hope that others would follow. The Viniks are the first to answer that call.

“We are thrilled that Jeff and Penny have stepped up so generously to support our Bulls and the on-campus stadium,” said Carol and Frank Morsani. “We said just last month that we were looking forward to others joining us in making this project a reality, and now we can’t wait to see who the Viniks’ gift will inspire next.”

It is impossible to measure the positive impact the Viniks have had on the Tampa Bay region and the city itself, and their support of the on-campus stadium elevates momentum behind the project to another level, said USF Board of Trustees Chair Will Weatherford.

“It takes incredible effort on the part of the Tampa Bay community to make this ambitious goal a reality,” Weatherford said. “We will build this stadium because the Viniks and others like them are leading the herd, setting an example for others to follow.”

USF Foundation CEO Jay Stroman and Vice President of Athletics Michael Kelly serve as the stadium planning committee co-chairs and told the USF Board of Trustees in their last update that the stadium project schedule includes options for completion in 2026 or 2027...."

 

 

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Meanwhile Memphis gets a $7 million naming rights deal.  https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/sports/college/memphis-tigers/football/2022/04/06/memphis-simmons-bank-liberty-stadium-naming-rights-deal-worth-millions/9486162002/

"...According to terms of the deal, sponsorship fees are "for the use and benefit of the Stadium" and designated for "operations and maintenance necessary to maintain the Stadium in a commercially reasonable standard"

The contract also contains clauses related to potential stadium renovations as well as the possibility of a new stadium being built either by the city or the University of Memphis."

 

Memphis has been looking at a new stadium (of course I think they have been for 20 years).

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LTtxfan

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On 3/24/2022 at 10:10 AM, bullet said:

Bowlsby, Gundy on Big 12:   "The Big 12 seems likely to be a 14-team conference in 2023-24 and perhaps the year after that. But Mike Gundy says he believes the Big 12 could settle into a 14-team league even after OU and Texas flee to the Southeastern Conference.   “We could be at 14 very easily, five years from now, from what I’m hearing,” Gundy said Tuesday. 

“I think there’s strength in numbers. When you watch this thing, the Big 12 always had some issues, because people would say, there’s only 10 (members).” 

Gundy’s assertion is not groundbreaking. Others have mentioned further Big 12 expansion, including commissioner Bob Bowlsby. 

“We’ll play with 14 for awhile,” Bowlsby told me awhile back. “Then we’ll fall back to 12, and we’ll reassess at that point. That could entail looking at targets for additional expansion, it could entail a strategy to get larger....

“Just like BYU,” Gundy said. “Everybody thought BYU was a Power 5 school forever. I used to flip (channels), and I’d stop and watch ‘em. I think Boise does grab people’s attention.” 

Alas, the 14th school is not so apparent. That’s where the Big 12 could be in danger of becoming watered down. Memphis and Southern Methodist are traditional expansion candidates. But Memphis has done little to invest in its athletic department – the Tigers have neither their own football stadium or basketball coliseum – and SMU’s fan base has been minimal going on 40 years, since the Pony Express scandals of the 1980s....

A 14-member Big 12 would be culture shock for many. It would include only six original Big 12 members – OSU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Iowa State and Kansas. 

But culture shock has become the norm in college athletics. "

 

Don't be surprised to see UTSA become a possible candidate for the B12 in a few years.  UTSA has almost 35K enrollment and is growing while Memphis has only 22K enrollment.  Adding San Antonio's TV market to the B12 makes sense financially.  

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On 4/8/2022 at 8:15 AM, DFW Horn said:

Travel for Lamar is much more cost-effective in the Southland. I won't be surprised if SFA, SHSU, and ACU return, as well. Why travel to NM and Utah for "meh" games?

SHSU is in the process of leaving the WAC.

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Pancho

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On 4/8/2022 at 8:15 AM, DFW Horn said:

Travel for Lamar is much more cost-effective in the Southland. I won't be surprised if SFA, SHSU, and ACU return, as well. Why travel to NM and Utah for "meh" games?

Sam Houston is leaving.  They are going to C-USA, though. 

As for Lamar, it had nothing to do with “meh” games and everything to do with “we are losing a shit ton of money on travel and cannot afford this.”

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4 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Don't be surprised to see UTSA become a possible candidate for the B12 in a few years.  UTSA has almost 35K enrollment and is growing while Memphis has only 22K enrollment.  Adding San Antonio's TV market to the B12 makes sense financially.  

slowly becoming the SWC 2 if that happens.. Tech, Baylor, TCU, UH.. and UTSA?  Wouldn't be surprised to see SMU later down the line, especially if Kansas/Iowa st/WV find another spot elsewhere in the future

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https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/cincinnati-houston-ucf-negotiating-settlement-to-join-big-12-2023

Per McMurphy (no nothing on UT's exit date):

 

"Cincinnati, Houston and UCF are negotiating a settlement in the “$17 million to $20 million range,” which would allow the schools to exit the American Athletic Conference early and officially join the Big 12 on July 1, 2023, sources told Action Network.

The completion of that deal would then allow the six Conference USA schools — Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UAB and UTSA — to join the AAC on July 1, 2023....

 

Multiple sources said they are “fully confident” that a settlement will be reached this month by UC, UH, UCF and the AAC.

The addition of BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF will give the Big 12 14 members next season, including Oklahoma and Texas, which will be leaving the Big 12 for the SEC in 2025 — unless they negotiate an early exit....

 

The C-USA schools moving to the American must forego two years of conference revenue to the league, sources said. That amount could range from $1.5 million to $3 million per school, depending on whether College Football Playoff and NCAA basketball tournament revenue is ultimately determined as revenue provided by the league. The exact buyout remains undecided, sources said.

Besides those six schools leaving to the American, Conference USA members Marshall, Old Dominion and Southern Miss, along with FCS member James Madison, will begin play in the Sun Belt this season. The C-USA schools negotiated a buyout with the league in the “neighborhood of $1.75 million” in addition to forfeiting one year of conference revenue, sources said."

 

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SOBMarcos

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unpopular opinion and all, but I was pushing for Tulane when A&M and Mizzou left. 

Build them up, get some fun road trips, and recruit the heck out of Louisiana. 
Not that it matters any more, but I still think it was a mistake not to take them and Louisville when the opportunity was there. 

Not going after Louahvull was definitely a mistake
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TKthunder2

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1 hour ago, closetohumping said:

Per 24/7, aggy does not want to be in a pod with us

They’ll grant it because it will help balance the pods and let aggy play LSU and the Mississippi schools each year and gets them away from OU (they’d rather lose 9/10 to LSU than 7/10 to OU) but then they’ll assign us as rivals because there is no way they don’t have us playing each other every year.

The SEC Network basically came up with this immediately after the news broke with the exception of the rivalry game.

image.jpeg.ecdff4e9416234270d7347a79ea6e1a2.jpeg

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Saint Austin

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9 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

They’ll grant it because it will help balance the pods and let aggy play LSU and the Mississippi schools each year and gets them away from OU (they’d rather lose 9/10 to LSU than 7/10 to OU) but then they’ll assign us as rivals because there is no way they don’t have us playing each other every year.

The SEC Network basically came up with this immediately after the news broke with the exception of the rivalry game.

image.jpeg.ecdff4e9416234270d7347a79ea6e1a2.jpeg

These pods make the most sense as long as there's one permanent cross-pod rivalry game. I'd do this:

Texas-A&M
Arkansas-LSU
Miss St.-Bama
Ole Miss-Vandy
Auburn-Georgia
Tennessee-Kentucky
Mizzou-South Carolina
Florida-OU

Not perfect, but maintains most rivalries. 

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YouLoveMyPenises

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If A&M ran away from yall, again, wouldn't that be considered one of the most cowardly, tail between the legs move in CFB history?

I mean, as an OU guy, put us in with Bama, UGA, and LSU, Florida, Auburn, or whatever fucknut hayseed wants to step up.  Fuck it, let's do it. Let everyone else play for 3rd place.

Though realistically, OU, UT, A&M, and Arkansas would be the best for all 4 schools.

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TrashMaster G

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1 hour ago, YouLoveMyPenises said:

If A&M ran away from yall, again, wouldn't that be considered one of the most cowardly, tail between the legs move in CFB history?

I mean, as an OU guy, put us in with Bama, UGA, and LSU, Florida, Auburn, or whatever fucknut hayseed wants to step up.  Fuck it, let's do it. Let everyone else play for 3rd place.

Though realistically, OU, UT, A&M, and Arkansas would be the best for all 4 schools.

When you think about aggy's move to the SEC, consider this: the SEC could have been on competitive par with the Big East and they still would have made the move.

That knowledge casts the move in a different light.

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kopp0e

kopp0e 1,135

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On 5/13/2022 at 9:30 AM, Saint Austin said:

These pods make the most sense as long as there's one permanent cross-pod rivalry game. I'd do this:

Texas-A&M
Arkansas-LSU
Miss St.-Bama
Ole Miss-Vandy
Auburn-Georgia
Tennessee-Kentucky
Mizzou-South Carolina
Florida-OU

Not perfect, but maintains most rivalries. 

Texas- Texas A&MOklahoma-Tennessee
Arkansas-LSU
Miss St.-Bama
Ole Miss-Vandy
Auburn-Georgia
-Kentucky
Mizzou-South Carolina
Florida-

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kopp0e

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7 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Nope.  Florida gets the easy road here.

But I get your joke, 55-20 says differently...

Tiger/ Hog/ Sooner & 'Horn in same quad...

I messed that up somehow on the upload:

Texas-Texas A&M, one of the nations' historic whoop ass "rivalries"...
Oklahoma-Tennessee, both schools had Josh Heupel, at one point...
Arkansas-South Carolina, the original add-ons that gave SEC CCG...
Miss St.-Bama, it's an ol' game that means more to Cowbell for win..?
Ole Miss-Vandy, same as the sentence above I don't know much on...
Auburn-Georgia, I know this is a heated old school tilt with ol' class...
Kentucky-Mizzou, welp they aren't in the same division so it works..?
Florida-LSU, this is a pretty solid game the last few decades lately...

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