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Realignment talk not going away

The Tower

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Posted by Sandbagging Steve,

How many teams will be left when the dust settles in a few years? I think there's a way for all the teams to still have some involvement. I will explain that at the end of this list. Here's my list of the top 32 programs and a list if it goes to 48. There's some debate if it goes to 48, but not much debate if it stops at 32. I guess one could debate Arizona State, but that's about it. The top 32 at least come close to carrying their own weight. Everyone below that line is losing money for t

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Aggy should abstain so the vote is 13-0 and then we can then brand it on their dog.

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Al_4_ISU

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LOL, that might work in a world where the 4 supers are close to equal but they aren't close in that scenario.  B1G and SEC are head and shoulders above the other two.  I'll take that deal if SEC and B1G get two AQs each.  Otherwise, the arguments for expanded playoff of 12 are still valid.

If they’re that much better they’ll easily win their first round games and play each other in the Natty.

USC and UCLA aren’t raising the quality of football in the Big 10. They’re raising the pay day.
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UncleSonny

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7 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

 

So if both conferences are at 16 now and eventually go to 20, Big Ten could add Washington, Oregon, UVA, Notre Dame and the SEC could add FSU, Clemson, UNC, Duke...

So two super-conferences of 20 plus teams. At that size, you’d have to structure them to contain multiple divisions/pods. 

It’s going to be hilarious when we end back where we started with similar “division” groupings as we have now, just with everything going up to either the Big10 or SEC. And of course cutting out the Baylors of the world. 

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JBJ

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1 minute ago, Al_4_ISU said:

If they’re that much better they’ll easily win their first round games and play each other in the Natty.

USC and UCLA aren’t raising the quality of football in the Big 10. They’re raising the pay day.

Taking UW and UO might have been better for both.  The potential of LA to become an actual CFB market aside.

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Horn of Gabriel

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2 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:


If they’re that much better they’ll easily win their first round games and play each other in the Natty.

USC and UCLA aren’t raising the quality of football in the Big 10. They’re raising the pay day.

2 super leagues and G8 are more likely now than 4x16.  I get why the new G5+3 would want AQs in the new world, they have a much easier path and then only have to win one game to get into the championship.  It's just not realistic given the level of competition in the 2 supers vs. the lower leagues.  You'd think the G8 would actually be advocating for expanded playoff now, not the other way around.

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40acredropout

40acredropout 2902

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In a scenario where it really does become SEC and BIG with 20-24 teams running shit, are there luckier motherfuckers out there than the likes of Rutgers, Illinois, Northwestern, Vandy, Mizzou who I guess are grandfathered in?

24 teams each would leave 16 total spots for leftover ACC, Pac-12, Big 12 schools and Notre Dame (37 total).  Kind of fun exercise thinking through how you rank those schools in terms of desirability.  

 

Edited by 40acredropout
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Horn of Gabriel

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2 minutes ago, 40acredropout said:

In a scenario where it really does become SEC and BIG with 20-24 teams running shit, are there luckier motherfuckers out there than the likes of Rutgers, Illinois, Northwestern, Vandy, Mizzou who I guess are grandfathered in?

24 teams each would leave 16 total spots for leftover ACC, Pac-12, Big Ten schools and Notre Dame (37 total).  Kind of fun exercise thinking through how you rank those schools in terms of desirability.  

 

Is there historical precedent for kicking teams out of a league?  That seems much more difficult than a team making a decision on their own to leave to another league in their best interest.  Feels ickier.

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Horn of Gabriel

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1 minute ago, JFKFC said:

Everyone always said CFB should have relegation like English soccer. Well, a lot of teams got relegated today. 

The new G8 will probably consolidate down some if the supers go to 20 or 24, but actually relegation/promotion might be a bone to toss them that they could win their way into the supers?  Fun to think about but doubtful it would ever happen because it would be too fun.

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hawkfan

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On 6/13/2022 at 12:29 PM, hawkfan said:

Agreed, this entire realignment song and dance has been as simple as "follow the money" for 50+ years.  Doing so leads you to think that the best content in the PAC & ACC are highly likely to head elsewhere.  USC was reportedly not interested in signing the PAC12's new GOR until they had an idea of what kind money they'd get in the PAC12 - if that was what drove their decision making, how could they possibly sign one locking them in long term to $30M less per year than everyone in the B1G/SEC?

He's a guy who claims to have SOURCES!, who know if he does or not, but rubber is about to meet the road on the B10's deal, that much is certain, and the PAC12 schools are probably coming to the realization they're fucked if they want to compete in football at the top level:

 

If the B1G wanted to counter the SEC move, adding USC + ND would be a good/logical first step.  I think USC would probably want something more logical for them from a travel standpoint though, and a 20 school B1G compromised of a PAC division of 5 of the original PAC8 would give them that, something like:

Pacific Division

USC

UCLA

Oregon

Washington

Stanford (5th doesn't really matter probably, first four would be the consensus I'd think, and the B1G presidents would cream themselves over Stanfords academic prestige)

Great Plains Division

Wisconsin

Nebraska

Iowa

Minnesota

Illinois

Great Lakes Division

Ohio State

Michigan

Michigan State

Purdue

Indiana

Atlantic Division

Penn State

Notre Dame

Northwestern

Rutgers

Maryland

9 conference games - you play everyone in your division, then everyone from another division that rotates every year.  CCG ends up being the "Winner" of the two rotations so there would never be rematch in the CCG, but you end up playing everyone in the conference twice every 6 years.

SEC could get to 20 or 24 with the best of the ACC (UNC, FSU, & Clemson would be their first picks, then whoever they'd like after that), then the remnants of the B12/PAC/ACC make up a third 20ish school conference that is paid less than the top two, but still operates at the top level and is a bit of a feeder league for recruits.

The above makes sense to me if you follow the money, and I don't see a universe where Oregon/USC/ND/Clemson/FSU/UNC are OK just getting paid $30M less per year than everyone in the top two conferences.  At some point, they'll act in self interest if that Wilner article is accurate and there is a $30M gap between the SEC/B1G and everyone else.

I agree with the "Fuck ND" sentiment, but they aren't going to get left out, and they're now staring down a similar revenue gap vs the B1G/SEC as the other conferences if they pledge their allegiance to anyone other than the B1G/SEC.  Their hand is going to be forced, Swarbrick acknowledged it publicly a couple months back:
 

https://www.si.com/college/2022/04/23/notre-dame-jack-swarbrick-division-1-change

 

 

I don't see the PAC schools or ND aligning themselves with the SEC from the academic standpoint if the B1G offers them an invite, and I don't see how the B1G can afford not to offer them an invite if they want to keep pace with the SEC.

Going to be an interesting few years.

This is still in play.

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Sbbruin

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1 hour ago, TonyTexas said:

Paging @Sbbruin

Sorry, was indisposed.  This is shocking and still processing.  But with the way college sports is going, it's better not to get caught with your pants down.  The purest in me would really prefer the 2 teams stay in the PAC.  It is a good conference with a proud tradition. But clearly the $$ will be what's necessary to remain competitive.  Need to digest this more.

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camel at sea

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13 minutes ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

2 super leagues and G8 are more likely now than 4x16.  I get why the new G5+3 would want AQs in the new world, they have a much easier path and then only have to win one game to get into the championship.  It's just not realistic given the level of competition in the 2 supers vs. the lower leagues.  You'd think the G8 would actually be advocating for expanded playoff now, not the other way around.

I think the 2 super leagues will be the transition stage before the full NCAA breakaway and reshuffle.  With a breakaway, you could appoint a commissioner to negotiate for the entire group of 72 schools (or whatever the number ends up being.)  Realignment wouldn't need to happen anymore at that point, as conferences aren't competing financially anymore, and you could do common sense things like arrange the divisions to be logical and fan-friendly, set up a playoff that makes sense, etc.

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Al_4_ISU

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In a scenario where it really does become SEC and BIG with 20-24 teams running shit, are there luckier motherfuckers out there than the likes of Rutgers, Illinois, Northwestern, Vandy, Mizzou who I guess are grandfathered in?
24 teams each would leave 16 total spots for leftover ACC, Pac-12, Big 12 schools and Notre Dame (37 total).  Kind of fun exercise thinking through how you rank those schools in terms of desirability.  
 

How are those teams lucky? They’re guaranteed to just get their heads kicked in for eternity.
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Al_4_ISU

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In a scenario where it really does become SEC and BIG with 20-24 teams running shit, are there luckier motherfuckers out there than the likes of Rutgers, Illinois, Northwestern, Vandy, Mizzou who I guess are grandfathered in?
24 teams each would leave 16 total spots for leftover ACC, Pac-12, Big 12 schools and Notre Dame (37 total).  Kind of fun exercise thinking through how you rank those schools in terms of desirability.  
 

How are those teams lucky? They’re guaranteed to just get their heads kicked in for eternity.
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mdmost

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1 minute ago, Al_4_ISU said:


How are those teams lucky? They’re guaranteed to just get their heads kicked in for eternity.

Because they can get their heads kicked in but be able to fund their programs unlike teams in the lower tier conferences. 

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UncleSonny

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16 minutes ago, 40acredropout said:

24 teams each would leave 16 total spots for leftover ACC, Pac-12, Big 12 schools and Notre Dame (37 total).  Kind of fun exercise thinking through how you rank those schools in terms of desirability.  

Yeah, it‘s pretty fun thinking through who would end up getting the invite. There are probably like 5 locks (Clemson, FSU, Miami, ND, Oregon) then it would be an absolute bloodbath for those last 11 spots. 

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TKthunder2

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, UncleSonny said:

Yeah, it‘s pretty fun thinking through who would end up getting the invite. There are probably like 5 locks (Clemson, FSU, Miami, ND, Oregon) then it would be an absolute bloodbath for those last 11 spots. 

UNC and Washington probably a lock too.

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Gaffords

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47 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

 

I called the PAC becoming unstable on the Shag, shortly after aggy left, Whiffing on snagging Texas as a bridge to the east was a fatal mistake that almost guaranteed the PACNET's flop. 

I also called AT&Ts purchase of Direct TV was not a good thing for the PAC most believed it would be.  Because AT&T wasn't going to just roll over and give Scott what he wanted, instead they would was something along what the SEC/ESPN or B10/FOX arrangements or there wouldn't be a deal, and Scott was too stubborn/proud to admit his vision was a failure.  (Granted, as a con, it worked beautifully). I only point out the failure to reach a deal with AT&T, broke the PACs back. And once the ACCs deal with ESPN put  them ahead of the PAC by even a slight margin, UCLA and USC would be poachable. And that the BIG 12 needed to be on the phone daily back then working its ass off, because without some additions over G5s, the BIG 12 was doomed because Texas and OU wouldn't stick around and fall tens of millions yearly behind the SEC or the B10 either...

I also said that I think the Big 12 made a huge mistake by panicking and adding the teams they did. Because no matter what was coming out of the B10, they were going to counter the SEC/UT+OU by poaching the PAC, so if the BIG 12 had held off a bit, I had a feeling they would've been in the perfect position to pick up some quality teams to replace their losses.

 

BOOM!!!   I nailed this one years before anyone else was talking about it even being possible.  LOL

 

47 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

 

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Dirk X West

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25 minutes ago, 40acredropout said:

In a scenario where it really does become SEC and BIG with 20-24 teams running shit, are there luckier motherfuckers out there than the likes of Rutgers, Illinois, Northwestern, Vandy, Mizzou who I guess are grandfathered in?

24 teams each would leave 16 total spots for leftover ACC, Pac-12, Big 12 schools and Notre Dame (37 total).  Kind of fun exercise thinking through how you rank those schools in terms of desirability.  

 

The little guys in the SEC and Big 10 will get cut out just as soon as the big boys figure out a legal and economically viable means of doing so, even if it's just something like excluding them from football but keeping them as league members for all other sports.  

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Al_4_ISU

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With $100MM annually, they can out-bid the teams not in the super leagues.

And do what with it?

Half of the programs in the new Big 10 and SEC will be sub .500 and patting themselves on the back for being in that club.

The tens of millions of fans of the 40ish current P5 programs that aren’t part of this club aren’t going to suddenly give a shit and become fans of schools in the Big 10 and SEC.
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Mitch Cumsteen

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2 minutes ago, mdmost said:

I'm chuckling at the thought of USC fans having to watch those Fox Big 9 AM games when USC travels to Michigan. 

Yeah... Riley bitched about those morning games in Norman. Is USC going to play the big noon game at home at 9:00 am?

But the single best thing about this is that it destroys the Rose Bowl, which has been the single biggest hold up to expanding the playoff. They can go fuck themselves with their traditional Pac 10/ Big 10 matchup. At this point, the SEC and Big 10 can dictate the playoff terms to the other conferences. The ACC, Pac and Big 12 can get on board with whatever gets dealt to them or the SEC and Big 10 can make their own playoff now. 

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Vertigo

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1 hour ago, Saint Austin said:

SEC may need to be proactive and look at FSU, Miami, Clemson, UNC, Duke, NC State, UVA, and VaTech before the B1G does. Though still no idea how you have a conference with 24 fucking members.

FSU, Miami, and Clemson make the most sense to the SEC from a footprint and culture standpoint. But, those schools are really not going to drive additional revenues to the conference. I don't think the SEC will expand to be defensive, and I don't think the B1G will take too many more schools outside of the big name west schools mentioned above. The B1G is also very concerned with academics, which is why USC, UCLA, Stanford and Washington make a ton of sense. Oregon not so much outside of sports. 

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UncleSonny

UncleSonny 6564

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Just now, Al_4_ISU said:


And do what with it?

Half of the programs in the new Big 10 and SEC will be sub .500 and patting themselves on the back for being in that club.

The tens of millions of fans of the 40ish current P5 programs that aren’t part of this club aren’t going to suddenly give a shit and become fans of schools in the Big 10 and SEC.

I don’t really understand where you are coming from here. It’s $100 million dollars, they‘ll be able to do a lot of things with it. Just probably not ever win a conference or national championship. Which is no different than now. 

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Vertigo

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1 hour ago, 40acredropout said:

Is there a scenario where Big 12 losing/gaining teams in some kind of Big 12-Pac merger reduces our buyout or speeds up the SEC timeline? 

If the Pac goes on offense and starts gobbling up B12 teams, it could in theory cause the conference to come apart. I think a B12 P12 leftover conference is the most likely scenario, and in that scenario I bet UCF is just hating life right now. 

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camel at sea

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36 minutes ago, 40acredropout said:

In a scenario where it really does become SEC and BIG with 20-24 teams running shit, are there luckier motherfuckers out there than the likes of Rutgers, Illinois, Northwestern, Vandy, Mizzou who I guess are grandfathered in?

24 teams each would leave 16 total spots for leftover ACC, Pac-12, Big 12 schools and Notre Dame (37 total).  Kind of fun exercise thinking through how you rank those schools in terms of desirability.  

 

I don't think 64 will be the final number.  72 probably works fine, too.  The leagues can breakaway from the NCAA, negotiate media rights collectively, and then put together divisions, schedules, and a playoff that actually makes sense.    

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