Realignment talk not going away

[RoyalBevo21 719]

1 minute ago, Asu2215 said:

So, it sounds like you want the top 16-24 teams in one superconference that can play it out for the big natty. If that is the case, I think we are agreement. I would say those teams should have at it and remaining 90-100 teams can go 1-AA.

Yes, exactly. However I know that some schools just got a lucky free ride (Vanderbilt, Purdue, etc)

[clapclapclap 9000]

How many schools does it take to dissolve the ACC?  Because that's how you get out of the GOR, yes?

If it is true that ND is the next focus of the B1G, ND saves a boatload of money if they join after the ACC dissolves.  So I would think that ND is going to lobby the B1G to take 4 ACC schools (probably UVA, UNC, Duke, and GT, long time targets of Jim Delaney.  Perhaps a Miami or maybe Syracuse to get into the 3rd or 4th most populous states, but not sure how much state markets matter compared to several years ago and the BTN/cable channel model.)  Those 5 likely lobby their brothers of VT, NC St, along with Clemson and FSU to approach the SEC (if for some reason they haven't put out feelers already.)  SEC will respond if the B1G raids the southeast, because this is the end game and the door to separating from the G5 and demoted P5's.

That's 9 votes out of 15.  Majority dissolves?  A lot harder to make the numbers work if higher are required, even with the further TV dollar boost if they reform into a P2 (or P3) and break away from the NCAA into a semi-pro league.

ND's Jack Swarbrick said a couple of months ago that he foresaw further schools moving soon (wouldn't name them) and ultimately a few power conferences breaking away from the NCAA.  He said the later would probably be in the 2030's, but that date could also have been some political butt covering since that's when the ACC GOR ends.  Just like OU and us are always saying we intend to remain in the B12 until our GOR runs out.  We'll see.

Anyway, if the ACC dissolves and the SEC reaches 20 and the B1G 21, I'd expect Wash, Oregon, and Stanford to complete them at 24.  NorCal is the nation's 5th largest urban agglomeration (after NYC, LA, DC/Balt, and Chicago-passed in the last year by DC/Balt), but you don't need 2 schools to serve it.  Hard to see the SEC going to 24 unless ESPN makes it worth it.  You could argue there's value in expanding the footprint nationwide, so maybe 4 of ASU, Cal, Utah, Colo, or even Syracuse (don't think a 3rd team in Florida adds much to ESPN as compared to new states.)  But my guess is that the SEC stops at 20.  OCD folks may not like it, but a B1G-SEC league doesn't have to have equal numbers like an AFC-NFC does.

And it probably wouldn't matter because I expect Congressional pressure will prevent a breakaway from leaving behind a P5 leftovers super conference that lobbies to be included in the breakaway.  The Poor But Proud conference probably makes it in, but with separate and inferior TV contracts.  Gives the B1G and SEC non-conf cannon fodder (in theory) if the breakaway has such major governing changes that playing G5 is no longer a real option.  Best for a complete separation from the G5.

3 P5's of 70-ish schools could have an interesting playoff setup.  B1G conf championship in the Rose, SEC in the Sugar, and Poor But Proud in the Orange, all on New Years.  Winners get byes while the losers play the winners of 3 wildcard qualifying bowls on campuses, and 4 more wildcard q bowl winners square off.  Gives you 10 bowls that matter for the holiday season.  Every playoff team ends up playing during the conf champ/bowls round, then you have a 13-team playoff (but really 20.)  Lots of games, but lots of money making.

Or if just the B1G and SEC manage to pull away, you get a similar 2 conf champs bowls and 6 wildcard qualifying bowls and a 10-team playoff (but really 16.)  Or simplify to just the 2 conf champ bowls, 4 wildcard qualifying bowls and a 6-team playoff (but really 12.)  Or a million other ways to do it.

I'm getting way ahead of things, the ACC still may survive without defections into the 2030's.  But I wouldn't bet on that.

 

[MalibuSheriff 1089]

[Hurtlocker 2208]

3 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

How many schools does it take to dissolve the ACC?  Because that's how you get out of the GOR, yes?

If it is true that ND is the next focus of the B1G, ND saves a boatload of money if they join after the ACC dissolves.  So I would think that ND is going to lobby the B1G to take 4 ACC schools (probably UVA, UNC, Duke, and GT, long time targets of Jim Delaney.  Perhaps a Miami or maybe Syracuse to get into the 3rd or 4th most populous states, but not sure how much state markets matter compared to several years ago and the BTN/cable channel model.)  Those 5 likely lobby their brothers of VT, NC St, along with Clemson and FSU to approach the SEC (if for some reason they haven't put out feelers already.)  SEC will respond if the B1G raids the southeast, because this is the end game and the door to separating from the G5 and demoted P5's.

That's 9 votes out of 15.  Majority dissolves?  A lot harder to make the numbers work if higher are required, even with the further TV dollar boost if they reform into a P2 (or P3) and break away from the NCAA into a semi-pro league.

ND's Jack Swarbrick said a couple of months ago that he foresaw further schools moving soon (wouldn't name them) and ultimately a few power conferences breaking away from the NCAA.  He said the later would probably be in the 2030's, but that date could also have been some political butt covering since that's when the ACC GOR ends.  Just like OU and us are always saying we intend to remain in the B12 until our GOR runs out.  We'll see.

Anyway, if the ACC dissolves and the SEC reaches 20 and the B1G 21, I'd expect Wash, Oregon, and Stanford to complete them at 24.  NorCal is the nation's 5th largest urban agglomeration (after NYC, LA, DC/Balt, and Chicago-passed in the last year by DC/Balt), but you don't need 2 schools to serve it.  Hard to see the SEC going to 24 unless ESPN makes it worth it.  You could argue there's value in expanding the footprint nationwide, so maybe 4 of ASU, Cal, Utah, Colo, or even Syracuse (don't think a 3rd team in Florida adds much to ESPN as compared to new states.)  But my guess is that the SEC stops at 20.  OCD folks may not like it, but a B1G-SEC league doesn't have to have equal numbers like an AFC-NFC does.

And it probably wouldn't matter because I expect Congressional pressure will prevent a breakaway from leaving behind a P5 leftovers super conference that lobbies to be included in the breakaway.  The Poor But Proud conference probably makes it in, but with separate and inferior TV contracts.  Gives the B1G and SEC non-conf cannon fodder (in theory) if the breakaway has such major governing changes that playing G5 is no longer a real option.  Best for a complete separation from the G5.

3 P5's of 70-ish schools could have an interesting playoff setup.  B1G conf championship in the Rose, SEC in the Sugar, and Poor But Proud in the Orange, all on New Years.  Winners get byes while the losers play the winners of 3 wildcard qualifying bowls on campuses, and 4 more wildcard q bowl winners square off.  Gives you 10 bowls that matter for the holiday season.  Every playoff team ends up playing during the conf champ/bowls round, then you have a 13-team playoff (but really 20.)  Lots of games, but lots of money making.

Or if just the B1G and SEC manage to pull away, you get a similar 2 conf champs bowls and 6 wildcard qualifying bowls and a 10-team playoff (but really 16.)  Or simplify to just the 2 conf champ bowls, 4 wildcard qualifying bowls and a 6-team playoff (but really 12.)  Or a million other ways to do it.

I'm getting way ahead of things, the ACC still may survive without defections into the 2030's.  But I wouldn't bet on that.

 

The ACC borrowed the B12's GoR language and there wasn't a dissolve point.   It's a Hunger Games play.

ND apparently signed an agreement that if they join any conference by 2035, it will be the ACC.   Of any team talked about, ND is the least likely to be held back by an agreement.   They're also that girl who walks through a bar without cash, gets four drinks bought for her and returns to her boyfriend with $50 and drinks.   The B1G's deal was rumored to be $1.5 billion a year before today's news.  I'm pretty sure Fox/Apple/Whoever would give the ACC $100m in a blink of an eye to lock up ND's rights and ND wouldn't drop a dime.

Media companies aren't doing that for anyone else.

[Augustus 3061]

So we've reached the part in the discussion where the thread descends to just a few posters writing their dissertations on realignment business models.  That was quick, this time.

[Doc Sam Beckett 5785]

12 hours ago, Valmy77 said:

That is already happening I believe. This is good for the elite schools but is a big blow to the popularity of the sport nationwide.

Yep, I don't follow it like I used to. It's crazy to think how much has changed in the last ~5 years. 

[Gidnik 3251]

i like how fox is getting absolutely 0 grief over this.  they were more directly involved with what happened than espn was with texas to the SEC.  

[Aqua Buddha 14530]

5 hours ago, MalibuSheriff said:

Wonder if he’ll get bitch ass about not being told and leave like last time.

[LTbear 4161]

5 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

More on timing

Today, June 30, would be the last day USC and UCLA could inform the Pac-12 they intend on leaving the conference if they want to avoid potential additional financial penalties, three sources tell CBS Sports' Matt Norlander. The active Pac-12 grant of rights expires on June 30, 2024.....so if you wanted to know why this is coming out today, there is your answer.

David Cobb

 

That doesn't make it sound like others will be able to duck out and follow.

I don't understand this tweet. 

1) If their GOR is up in 2024, they can simply ride out the existing GOR, not sign and new one, and thereby forfeit no media money

2) If there are other fees involved besides media money, I'm sure the $100mil a year from the B1G will cover it

3) If enough PAC teams jump ship (9, I believe), the conference is dissolved and no one owes anything

[LTbear 4161]

4 hours ago, Augustus said:

So we've reached the part in the discussion where the thread descends to just a few posters writing their dissertations on realignment business models.  That was quick, this time.

We're well-practiced by now

[BurntOrange&White 39721]

Notre Dame is going to be interesting to monitor. Especially if the rumors are true about new leadership at the top happens.....the new landscape they'll have to join a conference IMO.

If you're a conference and have the following team in your conference you should be worried:

Oregon

Florida State

Miami

Clemson

 

[Gidnik 3251]

7 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Notre Dame is going to be interesting to monitor. Especially if the rumors are true about new leadership at the top happens.....the new landscape they'll have to join a conference IMO.

If you're a conference and have the following team in your conference you should be worried:

Oregon

Florida State

Miami

Clemson

 

i think virginia tech, north carolina, are going to be in huge demand as well.  i dont really think miami is going to be as big of a draw. theyre always in trouble for something and im not sure the big 10 wants to deal with them.  not to mention they are an extremely small private school. smaller even than baylor. 

[SimonBolivar 10949]

7 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

You can still watch tech play zone at midnight just not in a game that will mean anything towards a national title…all that changes is that that game might actually mean something.  It could decide who gets into a ccg or who might make the playoff in the lesser league.  If that’s what you love about college football why should you care if your in the AA league?

More thoughts on this. We aren't necessarily sure that is all that changes for the remaining teams out there. Will people still care about Tech vs Arizona if they are in a separate division from the other schools? In 10 years does that go from a game that gets 50k at it to 20k? I have no idea.

[Huckleberry 32711]

Not quoting them all but those arguing that the future is only big games on big stages miss the important reality that if there is a 40 school super league then 10 of those big name schools will be in a 3-9 or 4-8 stretch and those won't actually be big games. 

The season opener between Mississippi State off a 4-8 season and Wisconsin following a 5-7 year won't be drawing shit for viewership or excitement. 

There will always be last place teams. 

Edited July 1, 2022 by Huckleberry

[Upgrayedd 5806]

7 hours ago, RoyalBevo21 said:

The numbers and stats just don't agree with what you're saying. When bluebloods or ranked teams play, the ratings flow in. Clemson's fanbase just picked up tons of new fans. And I can tell you for damn sure there were hardly any Alabama A's on the back windows of trucks pre 2010 in Texas like there are now. 

Nobody gives a rip about Sun Devils football, not even their own fans..... 

 

https://youtu.be/Oz0kApIqXio

 

Where y'all at? This is the GD season opener after the covid year wtf......

 

Where we at?  Good question.  You would think a 7:30 PM kick against Southern Utah on a hot-as-hell Thursday night before Labor Day weekend would have been a huge draw.

[Bateshorn 9908]

So, I work on the academic side of a lot of these schools as part of my day job.  Other than a few of the BIGGEST programs, the amount of money a R1 brings in through research grants dwarfs the sports money.  And in conference collaborations can multiply that effect.  We think of ISU as Iowa Aggie, but it’s actually rich AF because of its collaborations with Ames National Lab.  
 

The B1G is obsessed with R1 AAU schools.  They are still salty AF about Nebraska losing their status. 
 

Also, Oregon brings one Knight, Phillip and his corporate interests to the table.

Edited July 1, 2022 by Bateshorn

[gmr548 16535]

Is it too late for us to renege and go B1G?

Nah. Superconferences are fucking lame, but at least we’ll be playing OU and Arkansas every year, and aggy at least most years.

[BurntOrange&White 39721]

8 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

So, I work on the academic side of a lot of these schools as part of my day job.  Other than a few of the BIGGEST programs, the amount of money a R1 brings in through research grants dwarfs the sports money.  And in conference collaborations can multiply that effect.  We think of ISU as Iowa Aggie, but it’s actually rich AF because of its collaborations with Ames National Lab.  
 

The B1G is obsessed with R1 AAU schools.  They are still salty AF about Nebraska losing their status. 
 

Also, Oregon brings one Knight, Phillip and his corporate interests to the table.

I'm interested to see what direction Oregon goes from here. 

[LTbear 4161]

11 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

The B1G is obsessed with R1 AAU schools.  They are still salty AF about Nebraska losing their status. 

The B1G voted in Nebraska knowing full damn well they were about to lose that status. 

[hawkfan 60]

11 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

So, I work on the academic side of a lot of these schools as part of my day job.  Other than a few of the BIGGEST programs, the amount of money a R1 brings in through research grants dwarfs the sports money.  And in conference collaborations can multiply that effect.  We think of ISU as Iowa Aggie, but it’s actually rich AF because of its collaborations with Ames National Lab.  
 

The B1G is obsessed with R1 AAU schools.  They are still salty AF about Nebraska losing their status. 
 

Also, Oregon brings one Knight, Phillip and his corporate interests to the table.

To this point, you would think adding Stanford would be a wet dream for the B1G presidents.  CAL as well, but I think that's probably overkill in California.  Oregon/Washington are both AAU and deliver new markets.

[LTbear 4161]

7 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Nah. Superconferences are fucking lame, but at least we’ll be playing OU and Arkansas every year, and aggy at least most years.

Ya, I'm a college football purist, where regionality and rivalries is what makes the sport great. UT has landed in the best possible spot for them with the big three back on the schedule (it will be absolute bullshit if the SEC doesn't give you all three every year), plus another intriguing local-ish matchup in LSU. 

[LTbear 4161]

Best use of this GIF ever:

 

https://twitter.com/AZATHLETICS/status/1542566232091533312?s=20&t=z0JlSacQG7G_0pz_HZ-7Rg

 

Edited July 1, 2022 by LTbear

[Gidnik 3251]

4 minutes ago, LTbear said:

Best use of this GIF ever:

 

https://twitter.com/AZATHLETICS/status/1542566232091533312?s=20&t=z0JlSacQG7G_0pz_HZ-7Rg

 

 

[JBJ 3649]

56 minutes ago, Gidnik said:

i think virginia tech, north carolina, are going to be in huge demand as well.  i dont really think miami is going to be as big of a draw. theyre always in trouble for something and im not sure the big 10 wants to deal with them.  not to mention they are an extremely small private school. smaller even than baylor. 

It amazes me how little people know or care to know about the media landscape.

VT is the MVP of the ACC.  Washington is the MVP of the Pac.  That doesn't mean they'll be next chips to fall, but no one is bending over to get Miami or Stanford.  At least not to pad their media packages.

[LTbear 4161]

 

[utee94 15747]

52 minutes ago, LTbear said:

The B1G voted in Nebraska knowing full damn well they were about to lose that status. 

Yeah, it was at least two of their new B1G besties-- Wisconsin and Michigan-- that were part of the three votes they fell short, to maintain AAU status.  Meanwhile mean old Texas actually voted to let them stay in.  

22 minutes ago, JBJ said:

It amazes me how little people know or care to know about the media landscape.

VT is the MVP of the ACC.  Washington is the MVP of the Pac.  That doesn't mean they'll be next chips to fall, but no one is bending over to get Miami or Stanford.  At least not to pad their media packages.

I think the media contracts are so large now that it doesn't really matter whether or not a school adds to the media package.  Texas and OU to the SEC, and USC and UCLA to the B1G, were more than enough.  Now, conferences can add teams for prestige/vanity, or for strategic reasons.

Notre Dame is really the last and only school that moves the needle enough from a media rights perspective, to bother pursuing for that reason.  

Edited July 1, 2022 by utee94

[Gidnik 3251]

20 minutes ago, JBJ said:

VT is the MVP of the ACC.  Washington is the MVP of the Pac.  That doesn't mean they'll be next chips to fall, but no one is bending over to get Miami or Stanford.  At least not to pad their media packages.

I don’t think they’re next I just think they’re overlooked 

[markstanco 12528]

 

[markstanco 12528]

 

[DFW Horn 6118]

 

[hawkfan 60]

 

[PittsburghTiger 6153]

3 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

 

Why do they continue to say/think that Notre Dame doesn't/won't pay players?

[bullet 1596]

9 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

Do you like watching USC play Oregon St?  Or Clemson play Wake Forest? Other than an in state rivalry game most people don’t give a shit about most of these secondary schools and the viewership numbers show that.  Some solid schools like Oklahoma State will get left out and college football may forever lose those viewers but more casual fans will tune in to see USC play Michigan, Ohio St, Penn St than they would to see them play Oregon St, Wazzu, Arizona St.  They might lose 3 million hard core OrSU, WSU, ASU fans but will likely gain more viewers that may not had ever wanted to watch previously. And yes I know the Big Ten has uninteresting schools like Rutgers, Illinois, and Purdue too, but lowering the total number of uninteresting schools in major college football is only going to increase interest and revenue for the majority.

The downside is that the powers have more losses because they play fewer bottom feeders.  Do they lose some attraction?

[DFW Horn 6118]

Just now, PittsburghTiger said:

Why do they continue to say/think that Notre Dame doesn't/won't pay players?

Ignorance of their own history, I'd imagine. They've been doing it since Knute Rockne, if not earlier. Buncha Chicago hooligans...

[Francisco 2.0 32347]

2 minutes ago, PittsburghTiger said:

Why do they continue to say/think that Notre Dame doesn't/won't pay players?

 

The spirit of Rockne spoke to them ala Obi-Wan and told them so.

 

 

[bullet 1596]

2 hours ago, LTbear said:

I don't understand this tweet. 

1) If their GOR is up in 2024, they can simply ride out the existing GOR, not sign and new one, and thereby forfeit no media money

2) If there are other fees involved besides media money, I'm sure the $100mil a year from the B1G will cover it

3) If enough PAC teams jump ship (9, I believe), the conference is dissolved and no one owes anything

Sounds like a 2 year notice provision.

[LTbear 4161]

Just now, bullet said:

Sounds like a 2 year notice provision.

Sure, but my points #2 and #3 address that

[bullet 1596]

4 minutes ago, LTbear said:

Sure, but my points #2 and #3 address that

Oh yes, it doesn't make it a non-starter.  Its just that June 30 was the last day for the get out of jail free card.

[bullet 1596]

At least the last day for the 2024 season.

[The Hot Dog Buffet 1291]

13 hours ago, Auto Driller said:

If conferences reach 20 teams then what does it even mean to be a “member” of that conference? You play 5-6 opponents yearly, and then rotate 3 opponents? So you end up playing your “conference mates” every 4-5 years? Kinda sounds like the out of conference scheduling agreements we have now. 
 

I get that it’s ultimately about TV contracts and money but the whole thing seems dumb.

Yeah, and you'd just about have to resort to polls to choose your championship game participants.

[bullet 1596]

Just now, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

Yeah, and you'd just about have to resort to polls to choose your championship game participants.

That's the issue if you dump pods and just play in one division.  At least if going beyond 16.  In reality, going beyond 14  without divisions leads to almost annual ridiculous tiebreaks.  It will happen often enough with 12.

[RoyalBevo21 719]

1 hour ago, Upgrayedd said:

Where we at?  Good question.  You would think a 7:30 PM kick against Southern Utah on a hot-as-hell Thursday night before Labor Day weekend would have been a huge draw.

Why can't y'all just admit that there's a shitty college football culture west of Lubbock. The fans of the Pac-12 don't care about college football as much as other P5 conferences which is precisely why the one school that actually does really give a shit is leaving. 

 

But to dissect your point, we should compare what it looks like when South Carolina plays the Citadel. Or here's a fucking thought, maybe don't schedule Southern bleeping Utah.......

[Longboard Horn 40180]

With all the realignments it's like we're living in a virtual reality of the NCAA football 14 video game and the controller is making the most random conferences they can think of. 

[LTbear 4161]

Hawaii to ACC up next 

[Don Johnson 4745]

 

[Texas Wahoo 3383]

1 hour ago, JBJ said:

It amazes me how little people know or care to know about the media landscape.

VT is the MVP of the ACC.  Washington is the MVP of the Pac.  That doesn't mean they'll be next chips to fall, but no one is bending over to get Miami or Stanford.  At least not to pad their media packages.

Obviously it has been a while and Virginia Tech has made strides since then, but it's hard for me to believe that they are "the MVP of the ACC," given that the Virginia legislature basically had to force the ACC to take them in the first place.

[Auto Driller 2504]

33 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

Yeah, and you'd just about have to resort to polls to choose your championship game participants.

I could see the big conferences only have eastern / western division championships (based on regular season results only - no championship game).

[n64ra 1079]

Everybody other than the SEC needs to be acting today.

ACC: Beg ND to fully join.
Big 10: Tell ND they have a spot, but if they decline, the Big 10 will add others. Heavily consider Washington and Oregon. Tell UNC and Virginia they can come.
Big 12: Try to go to 16 with UA, ASU, Utah, and CU.
Pac 12: Try to grab some Big 12 teams or propose a merger for the first 20+ team conference, the "Big Pac-2x".
...
SEC: Do something anyway to go to 18 or 20.

[The Hot Dog Buffet 1291]

1 minute ago, n64ra said:

Everybody other than the SEC needs to be acting today.

ACC: Beg ND to fully join.
Big 10: Tell ND they have a spot, but if they decline, the Big 10 will add others. Heavily consider Washington and Oregon. Tell UNC and Virginia they can come.
Big 12: Try to go to 16 with UA, ASU, Utah, and CU.
Pac 12: Try to grab some Big 12 teams or propose a merger for the first 20+ team conference, the "Big Pac-2x".
...
SEC: Do something anyway to go to 18 or 20.

The Big 12 should only try to get the Arizona schools. Wait and see if Washington/Oregon end up in the Big 10. Would be awful to get Utah/Colorado if they could have had Oregon/Washington.

[Horn of Gabriel 1590]

12 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

The Big 12 should only try to get the Arizona schools. Wait and see if Washington/Oregon end up in the Big 10. Would be awful to get Utah/Colorado if they could have had Oregon/Washington.

I think it's more likely that Oregon and Washington stay in the PAC and try to recruit Big12 teams to them than that they bail on the PAC for the Big12.  Their preferred options have to be:

1. Join the B1G
2. Stay in an expanded PAC by poaching some Big12 teams
3. Figure out some ACC/PAC merger? lol
4. Join the SEC
5. ...
6. Join the Big12