Realignment talk not going away

[The Hot Dog Buffet 1291]

Just now, 'stache said:

I just don't fucking get it, something changes, but nothing else follows for a decade. Just fucking realign already and get it the fuck over with.

Personally, I'd like for this shit to drag out until after I'm dead and gone so I can continue enjoying college athletics as I know them.

[utee94 15747]

I really don't see Oregon as a desirable target for the B1G.  They're basically the anti-ags.

When the SEC added Texas A&M, they did it knowing that the ags would help open up recruiting and television markets in Texas, but without much chance of ever threatening the established powers of the SEC.

Oregon is the opposite.  They don't bring any significant television markets or recruiting grounds, but they're a very dangerous, athletically competitive school, that could definitely challenge the traditional powers of the B1G conference, on the field.  If I were the B1G, I'd stay far, far away from the Ducks.

 

['stache 21778]

2 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

Personally, I'd like for this shit to drag out until after I'm dead and gone so I can continue enjoying college athletics as I know them.

You planning to die by 2024 or 25? NIL has already changed everything, these upcoming moves are on the horizon. The CFB you're speaking of is already dead, it'll already be half rotten by 2025.

[DanTheHorn 4902]

8 minutes ago, Steelers Roll Left said:

Just focusing on "one" of your mentions above: I don't really see how Duke has a seat at the tables we're discussing unless UNC "brings them with them" UCLA-style.  Small, private school that was irrelevant until a guy named Coach K came along and ferried the university into "basketball" relevance.  Marginal "at best" at football and historically in the conversation as one of the worst football programs in D1, AND that Coach K?.........he's departed for the parade to the afterlife as might the Duke athletics program

Duke and Arizona are in there because it requires a breakup of the ACC and NC and Duke have always voted on basketball interest. I should have added that ESPN and FOX must also think that the magic number is larger than 48. If network and streaming actuary math for most profit says it is 48 then SEC and B1G will grow to 24 and that is it for any other scenarios.

Edited July 1, 2022 by DanTheHorn

[The Hot Dog Buffet 1291]

2 minutes ago, 'stache said:

You planning to die by 2024 or 25? NIL has already changed everything, these upcoming moves are on the horizon. The CFB you're speaking of is already dead, it'll already be half rotten by 2025.

Seems like we get about 10 years of stability every time things get shaken up. We're going to have a new Big 12 with a few extra Pac schools (I truly believe Stanford and Cal won't allow the poaching to work in the other direction) and the ACC will stick around until their GOR expires. Give teams a couple of extra years to move, and best case is 2040 before college football is a minor league NFL affiliate that nobody cares about.

[Bateshorn 9908]

6 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I really don't see Oregon as a desirable target for the B1G.  They're basically the anti-ags.

When the SEC added Texas A&M, they did it knowing that the ags would help open up recruiting and television markets in Texas, but without much chance of ever threatening the established powers of the SEC.

Oregon is the opposite.  They don't bring any significant television markets or recruiting grounds, but they're a very dangerous, athletically competitive school, that could definitely challenge the traditional powers of the B1G conference, on the field.  If I were the B1G, I'd stay far, far away from the Ducks.

 

Oregon is an AAU, R1, and more importantly: it’s Phil Knight’s child.

['stache 21778]

2 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

Seems like we get about 10 years of stability every time things get shaken up. We're going to have a new Big 12 with a few extra Pac schools (I truly believe Stanford and Cal won't allow the poaching to work in the other direction) and the ACC will stick around until their GOR expires. Give teams a couple of extra years to move, and best case is 2040 before college football is a minor league NFL affiliate that nobody cares about.

I think Notre Dame is the last straw and with the next media contracts coming up in the next 2-3 years, I don't think they can reasonably continue to hold out. I think they'll see the writing on the wall within the next few months and finally agree to the Big 10, which will then lead to more Pac teams leaving, and the SEC will respond quickly as well. Once Notre Dame makes the move, it's all over.

[Steelers Roll Left 1142]

2 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

Seems like we get about 10 years of stability every time things get shaken up. We're going to have a new Big 12 with a few extra Pac schools (I truly believe Stanford and Cal won't allow the poaching to work in the other direction) and the ACC will stick around until their GOR expires. Give teams a couple of extra years to move, and best case is 2040 before college football is a minor league NFL affiliate that nobody cares about.

Actually, one of the results of the realignment period of the last decade is it appeared the major conferences all scheduled their new TV deals at that time to expire at roughly the same time to give them the flexibility to secede from the NCAA and take control of their futures once those conference TV deals expired.  Those conference TV expiration dates are now upon us.

[utee94 15747]

5 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Oregon is an AAU, R1, and more importantly: it’s Phil Knight’s child.

Sure.  So?  No shortage of less dangerous AAU teams to add.  And why would the B1G give even one half of a rat's ass about Phil Knight? They're swimming in money.  

[DanTheHorn 4902]

4 minutes ago, Steelers Roll Left said:

Actually, one of the results of the realignment period of the last decade is it appeared the major conferences all scheduled their new TV deals at that time to expire at roughly the same time to give them the flexibility to secede from the NCAA and take control of their futures once those conference TV deals expired.  Those conference TV expiration dates are now upon us.

Except for the ACC they decided to go to 2036. Some news paper article said their exit fee is 50m+. That is nothing and if that is the case those guys are gone so I do not buy it.

Edited July 1, 2022 by DanTheHorn

[bullet 1596]

1 hour ago, statsman said:

No. UW, Oregon, Cal and Stanford are a hell of a lot better than any four of the B12 leftovers. You have history, fan support, TV attractiveness, big stadiums, academic quality…

LOL.  Stanford HAD a big stadium.  They tore it down and built something half the size.  Oregon has never had a big stadium.  Cal and fan support in their stadium sitting on a fault line?

WVU, Tech, Iowa St. and Okie St. all have better attendance than Oregon.  KSU, Baylor and TCU all have better attendance than Stanford and Cal.

[mdleast 8285]

but he got shoe money

[Steelers Roll Left 1142]

3 minutes ago, bullet said:

LOL.  Stanford HAD a big stadium.  They tore it down and built something half the size.  Oregon has never had a big stadium.  Cal and fan support in their stadium sitting on a fault line?

WVU, Tech, Iowa St. and Okie St. all have better attendance than Oregon.  KSU, Baylor and TCU all have better attendance than Stanford and Cal.

Too bad this is about TV markets and not ticket sales

[bullet 1596]

52 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

He said rather do Ivy than Big Ten.  Doesn’t mean they want to join the Ivy League.  I could see them going independent in football and joining the WCC or making a hybrid public/private league with Cal with the best of the WCC and Big West for their other sports.  Stanford is an odd bird like that.

There is nobody of their academic caliber out west outside the Pac.  And the Big 10 is closer than the Ivy.  Its Pac or B$G for Stanford.

Its like Rice looking at football a few years back.  If they left CUSA, their only choice was the UAA where Washington Mo. and Emory were the only schools within 1000 miles.

[Steelers Roll Left 1142]

6 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

Except for the ACC they decided to go to 2036.

Yeah, and to expand on the ACC, I seem to recall that the conferences "football" members were irked that the decisions on their conference's future were being made from the basketball-centric interests of the Duke's and the Carolina's.  This was rumored to be one of the reasons Clemson and Florida State were exploring a move to The Big XII at that time.  I'm guessing those sentiments will soon surface again.  Hell, they probably already have

[bullet 1596]

6 minutes ago, Steelers Roll Left said:

Too bad this is about TV markets and not ticket sales

Its about TV viewership.  Oregon is pretty good right now, but they are simply the P5 version of Boise.  What happens if they start losing?  They've got a dozen years of success, not a long history.  Cal and Stanford don't even have that.  But from the B$G standpoint, those two do provide access to alums and Silicon Valley money.  They are basically Rutgers West, schools that have value to the B$G, but not necessarily elsewhere.

[DanTheHorn 4902]

24 minutes ago, Steelers Roll Left said:

Too bad this is about TV markets and not ticket sales

Analytics today probably break down TV markets as to how much an individual pair of eyeballs is worth and not just the number of eyeballs. We don't have enough data to know how much markets are really worth as far as college sports is concerned. We probably have enough data to put folks into tiers but deciding between two similar programs is outside of the analytics we have access too.

Edited July 1, 2022 by DanTheHorn

[The Hot Dog Buffet 1291]

14 minutes ago, bullet said:

Its about TV viewership.  Oregon is pretty good right now, but they are simply the P5 version of Boise.  What happens if they start losing?  They've got a dozen years of success, not a long history.  Cal and Stanford don't even have that.  But from the B$G standpoint, those two do provide access to alums and Silicon Valley money.  They are basically Rutgers West, schools that have value to the B$G, but not necessarily elsewhere.

I don't think the Big 10 really wants a Rutgers west. They will take Stanford if Notre Dame tells them to, but otherwise they could really use another school that is going to regularly be ranked. Stanford appears to be drifting toward where they were before Harbaugh.

[DFW Horn 6118]

dick-with-ears chimes in...

 

[Zhorn96 1772]

25 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

I don't think the Big 10 really wants a Rutgers west. They will take Stanford if Notre Dame tells them to, but otherwise they could really use another school that is going to regularly be ranked. Stanford appears to be drifting toward where they were before Harbaugh.

Bay Area market is what, #5?  Even if Cal and Stanford are meh, eyeballs and a lot of Big10 alumni are there so you have to think its attractive on some level

[JFKFC 4878]

1 hour ago, NoRagrets said:

But SEC doesn’t care much for book learnin’, so bring on Miami and FSU!

 

1 hour ago, NoRagrets said:

Miami is a really good school, actually. 

Both Miami and FSU are tied at 55 in US News. That is 13 spots ahead of aggie. I work with a guy whose kid just went through the college application cycle. He lives in Florida. His kid only made a couple of Bs in high school, the rest were all As. The kid had an SAT score just under 1400 (1380 or 1390). He was telling me his kid had absolutely no shot at UF but they were hopeful for FSU. He was thrilled when his kid go in to FSU. 

[JFKFC 4878]

6 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

dick-with-ears chimes in...

 

With the ACC Grant of Rights going through 2036, and geography now being meaningless in CFB conferences, can someone give me a reason why the SEC shouldn't call Oregon & Washington? 

[The Hot Dog Buffet 1291]

1 minute ago, Zhorn96 said:

Bay Area market is what, #5?  Even if Cal and Stanford are meh, eyeballs and a lot of Big10 alumni are there so you have to think its attractive on some level

I think the number of people actually watching the game matters a lot more today than it did when the Big 10 added Rutgers. The old cable model is dying.

[TKthunder2 4981]

10 minutes ago, JFKFC said:

With the ACC Grant of Rights going through 2036, and geography now being meaningless in CFB conferences, can someone give me a reason why the SEC shouldn't call Oregon & Washington? 

Because the SEC is still a regional conference unlike the Big Ten and Big 12, and those schools likely don’t bring in enough money to offset the travel costs and reduced revenue from seeing big name schools at home less often.

[Vertigo 20274]

12 minutes ago, JFKFC said:

With the ACC Grant of Rights going through 2036, and geography now being meaningless in CFB conferences, can someone give me a reason why the SEC shouldn't call Oregon & Washington? 

Because there are schools far closer and with just as big of fanbases that could be added without wrecking scheduling and travel. Ok State and UNC would both be better options.

[hawkfan 60]

Why would you add Oregon & Washington when you get better ratings with Clemson/Florida State sitting right in your back yard?  It isn't about new markets anymore, it's about TV Ratings and what fan bases watch.

[Steelers Roll Left 1142]

[DFW Horn 6118]

2 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

Because there are schools far closer and with just as big of fanbases that could be added without wrecking scheduling and travel. Ok State and UNC would both be better options.

Not to mention Clemson and FSU.

[mdmost 42878]

25 minutes ago, JFKFC said:

With the ACC Grant of Rights going through 2036, and geography now being meaningless in CFB conferences, can someone give me a reason why the SEC shouldn't call Oregon & Washington? 

Because the SEC doesn't have to do anything. Locking up Texas and OU was all they really needed to do. The SEC is the antithesis of what the Big 10 is doing. The media markets are smaller yet it has the most total viewership of the conferences as far as ratings. Ohio State and Michigan gets the most eyeballs for their game but there's a reason Fox went for Texas and Alabama for their first choice protected game. The SEC doesn't need to move beyond its footprint because its footprint is the entire United States.  It's going to make a shitload of money when the new TV contract comes up. If the ACC starts to implode, they'll pull off some pieces but they don't have to. 

I feel bad for Washington and Oregon. I think their options are pretty limited now unless the Big 10 cannot move Notre Dame off the ledge.

Edited July 1, 2022 by mdmost

[Macklemore 2871]

7 minutes ago, Steelers Roll Left said:

Cougar High has expressed interest in the PAC 12 before. Wonder if they’d bolt from the XII if they got an invite.

[maninblack 7974]

Get the 64 teams established, break away to start the new thing, and then realign based on geography and rivalries. Equal revenue sharing across all 64 teams to end the constant grass is greener bullshit.

[The Hot Dog Buffet 1291]

24 minutes ago, JFKFC said:

With the ACC Grant of Rights going through 2036, and geography now being meaningless in CFB conferences, can someone give me a reason why the SEC shouldn't call Oregon & Washington? 

The SEC is the only conference that really seems to know what it's doing. They secure regional rivalries with schools that actually care about playing each other, and that draws television audiences. The Big 10 is more focused on getting coast to coast subscribers to its channel than it is on putting a quality product on the field, and I think it will eventually fall apart. USC makes sense from a quality perspective, but I really don't care about watching them play midwest teams. I'd be more inclined to tune into a game where they play Washington State than Wisconsin. Those types of games are fun out of conference because they don't happen often. They aren't going to be fun when they play every year.

[SimonBolivar 10949]

P12-2 just announced they're looking to expand. Going to be really interesting to see what happens in tier 2 land.

[The Hot Dog Buffet 1291]

Just now, SimonBolivar said:

P12-2 just announced they're looking to expand. Going to be really interesting to see what happens in tier 2 land.

I look forward to observing Stanford and Cal as San Diego State seeks membership.

[Sbbruin 21784]

Well, we know which Mega Conference would be winning every single national championship, every single year.....

Would remain to be seen whether teams moving to the super conferences start moving up or down in performance. The status quo will be turned on its head

[The Hot Dog Buffet 1291]

Just now, Sbbruin said:

Would remain to be seen whether teams moving to the super conferences start moving up or down in performance. The status quo will be turned on its head

So far, most have trended down.

[BB65 476]

Think Tech and OSU have made some calls yet?

[hawkfan 60]

5 minutes ago, maninblack said:

Get the 64 teams established, break away to start the new thing, and then realign based on geography and rivalries. Equal revenue sharing across all 64 teams to end the constant grass is greener bullshit.

This is what should happen, then expand the playoff to 12 teams and conference parity doesn't really matter that much either.

I'm not sure how you make that happen though without getting ESPN/Fox on board and making all 64 schools happy with the terms.

[BurntOrange&White 39719]

36 minutes ago, JFKFC said:

With the ACC Grant of Rights going through 2036, and geography now being meaningless in CFB conferences, can someone give me a reason why the SEC shouldn't call Oregon & Washington? 

UNC, Clemson, Florida State, and Miami?

[maninblack 7974]

7 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

P12-2 just announced they're looking to expand. Going to be really interesting to see what happens in tier 2 land.

I know where I'd be looking if I was them

[Sbbruin 21784]

11 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

So far, most have trended down.

Nothing will be as it was.  Past trends may not matter.  Not just talking UCLA, but being in either the B1G or SEC will be like being in the Premier League and everyone else will be in the Champions League.  That may elevate some teams who hadn’t previously been relevant.  At some point though, there should be some relegation element where the Vandy’s and Rutgers of the world get cast of for far superior programs.

[oSuJeff97 3435]

1 hour ago, Steelers Roll Left said:

Too bad this is about TV markets and not ticket sales

Actually, it’s not about TV markets; it’s about the ability of each individual program to draw eyeballs to football games on TV. It doesn’t mean shit if you’re a PAC school in a big market if nobody in that market cares enough about college football to tune in to your game when it’s on.

As such, the Big 12 remainders do MUCH better in that regard than the PAC remainders. The numbers have been posted numerous times over the past few years.

And in the new streaming era, online fan engagement is another metric that’s important - and again the Big 12 remainders kick the shit out of the PAC remainders in that regard. 

In other words, the fact that the Big 12 remainders have passionate, engaged fan bases is a huge advantage over the PAC remainders.

Edited July 1, 2022 by oSuJeff97

[JFKFC 4878]

35 minutes ago, hawkfan said:

Why would you add Oregon & Washington when you get better ratings with Clemson/Florida State sitting right in your back yard?  It isn't about new markets anymore, it's about TV Ratings and what fan bases watch.

I would prefer FSU & Clemson, but they are locked up.

[Francisco 2.0 32347]

1 minute ago, Sbbruin said:

Nothing will be as it was.  Past trends may not matter.  Not just talking UCLA, but being in either the B1G or SEC will be like being in the Premier League and everyone else will be in the Champions League.  That may elevate some teams who hadn’t previously been relevant.  At some point though, there should be some relegation element where the Vandy’s and Rutgers of the world get cast of for far superior programs.

Should, but won't

The haves (Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia, Michigan, so forth) will need doormats in the conference, because reasons.  Sure, Rutgers-USC is a laughable exercise of a regular season game, and a matchup that would never happen unless Rutgers had that freak of nature season and ended up in a bowl opposite the Trojans.  But USC will absolutely love for them to make the trip to LA, because it's almost a guaranteed win.

Alabama will never vote yes to banish Vanderbilt from the SEC.  Michigan would never vote to banish Illinois.  And so it goes.

 

 

[MrBig 5292]

This is all consolidating into 2 superconferences: SEC (ESPN) vs B1G (Fox) driven by the TV deals. The remaining schools need to claw their way in before the 20 (maybe 22) slots fill up and everyone else is left behind and considered G5 level competition. 

[TKthunder2 4981]

5 minutes ago, MrBig said:

This is all consolidating into 2 superconferences: SEC (ESPN) vs B1G (Fox) driven by the TV deals. The remaining schools need to claw their way in before the 20 (maybe 22) slots fill up and everyone else is left behind and considered G5 level competition. 

[oSuJeff97 3435]

3 minutes ago, MrBig said:

This is all consolidating into 2 superconferences: SEC (ESPN) vs B1G (Fox) driven by the TV deals. The remaining schools need to claw their way in before the 20 (maybe 22) slots fill up and everyone else is left behind and considered G5 level competition. 

The perfect number would be 48.

Then you get six 8-team “divisions” that more or less replicate 8-team conference era (which was perfect).

You get to preserve long-standing rivalries and then you get real playoff with (at a minimum) 8 teams (6 division winners + 2 wild cards) but easily expandable to 16 teams.

You print money. Badda-bing, badda boom.

[clapclapclap 9000]

3 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Minnesota beat writer who started tweeting about USC to the B10 back in March has some updates.  Given his track record, despite not having a blue check, his statements bear some thought:

 

 

 

 

 

Beat writer for whom?

Pretty sure he's just another internet wanker, he's had enough big misses before to earn the nickname "The Dude of Minnesota."

[The Hot Dog Buffet 1291]

The Big 12, Pac, and ACC may have some mutual interest in keeping each other viable. Best case for all of them is to end up tier 2, anyway, and there is value in a league having conferences that have regional rivalries intact. I doubt they are going to be able to see it that way, but they could put out a quality product with a lot of viewers on a streaming service, played at a division between FCS and SEC.

[camel at sea 589]

Not sure why anyone in the Big 12 would be interested in joining the PAC, knowing full well that Washington and Oregon want out.  PAC expansion probably has to be schools like SDSU and Boise, I'd think.