Realignment talk not going away

[DFW Horn 6637]

11 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Or Stanford????  

USC homecoming last year vs Arizona

UCLA attendance is averaging only 46,532 during the Chip Kelly Era. I hope B1G travel well and fill those empty, LA seats.

 

[statsman 5675]

You guys that think fan support is measured by attendance are cute. Check out market price for tickets for a real measure. 40,000 attendance at Stanford, with $66 average price, is a hell of a lot better than 45,000 attendance at ISU, with $44 average price. 

[Sbbruin 22082]

21 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

USC homecoming last year vs Arizona

UCLA attendance is averaging only 46,532 during the Chip Kelly Era. I hope B1G travel well and fill those empty, LA seats.

 

Chip Kelly is solely responsible for this shitshow.  When we were winning under Mora, we put almost 70k in the seats every game.  I think there will be a renewed enthusiasm, but not this season.  We have just a shitful schedule.

[Woodrow Call 494]

I really don't see Stanford playing this game. It seems contrary to their culture and approach to things. But I never saw UCLA and USC going to the Big Ten, either. 

[Trey3216 15450]

3 minutes ago, statsman said:

You guys that think fan support is measured by attendance are cute. Check out market price for tickets for a real measure. 40,000 attendance at Stanford, with $66 average price, is a hell of a lot better than 45,000 attendance at ISU, with $44 average price. 

What are gas prices in Berkeley and Ames?  Probably a similar ratio.  Fucking stupid ass comment.  

[Woodrow Call 494]

3 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

Chip Kelly is solely responsible for this shitshow.  When we were winning under Mora, we put almost 70k in the seats every game.  I think there will be a renewed enthusiasm, but not this season.  We have just a shitful schedule.

Yeah, but if we're 3-0 going into the Washington and Utah games, we might draw well.

Edited July 3, 2022 by Woodrow Call

[Sbbruin 22082]

How stuck are the current PAC and Big 12 to their current makeup.  Seems to me the recent additions to the Big 12 no longer make sense, not all of them.  Seems like you could create a decent conference with the best of each conference.  Although you still lack real solid media markets outside of Dallas and Seattle.  The Bay Area doesn’t watch Cal/Stanford,

[TrashMaster G 18029]

On 7/2/2022 at 1:39 PM, utee94 said:

JFC so many stupid takes on this thread.

We have an 864-page thread, constantly on the front page of this forum, dedicated to the ags.  Of course they're a rival.

The pigs are a rival too.

ousux is the main rival, but acting like the other two aren't, is just stupid.  Stop it.

Not denying that aggy is a rival, but the 864-page thread is mostly about pointing and laughing at their stupidity, which is damn near boundless.

[LTtxfan 49906]

7 minutes ago, statsman said:

You guys that think fan support is measured by attendance are cute. Check out market price for tickets for a real measure. 40,000 attendance at Stanford, with $66 average price, is a hell of a lot better than 45,000 attendance at ISU, with $44 average price. 

Username  ✔

[TrashMaster G 18029]

4 hours ago, jdhorn92 said:

I could see SEC  going to 20 as a result of the recent moves.

West :

Texas, OU, OSU, TAMU, ARK, Mizzou, LSU, Tech, Baylor, TCU

East:

UF, UGA, Bama, Auburn, MSU, Ole Miss, UK, USC, TN, Vandy

9 conf games, final 4 playoff , Im guessing top 2 division winners and perhaps 2 at large (in case one division is top heavy)

In BB you would play your division home and home and play 1 game vs the other side.  18+ 10 = 28 conf games, that may be too many, if so, play the half the other side for 23.  We played 22 iirc when we had 12 teams

Fuck Baylor

[LTtxfan 49906]

5 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

How stuck are the current PAC and Big 12 to their current makeup.  Seems to me the recent additions to the Big 12 no longer make sense, not all of them.  Seems like you could create a decent conference with the best of each conference.  Although you still lack real solid media markets outside of Dallas and Seattle.  The Bay Area doesn’t watch Cal/Stanford,

Yeah, I like this question.

Wonder if B12 now wishes they weren't locked into additions of UCF/Cincy/ UH ?? 

[statsman 5675]

In 1922, Iowa had 11 congressmen and Oklahoma had eight. Now, they both have five? Yeah, the trend is to definitely bet on OSU and ISU as linchpins of the power conference of the future. 😂

 

[Gidnik 3475]

https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-pac-12-gut-punch-comes-with
 

Quote

 

Prior to the desertion, Thompson anticipated the Pac-12 would land a deal in the neighborhood of $500 million per-year average over the course of the contract. That assumed an offering of games similar to what the Pac-12 sold Fox and ESPN in their current agreement.

“I guess you could take a run at adding San Diego State, UNLV, Air Force, Boise State, San Jose State or Fresno State to the Pac-12,” he said, “but none of those markets really move the meter from a television standpoint.”

The new estimated valuation: ~$300 million per year

 

Yikes

 

[billfromlaketravis 11784]

I assume UCLA and USC are going to use the shit of Wheels Up for men’s basketball, baseball, and women’s basketball? 
 

Is softball flying coach to Columbus? 

[TriStone 1724]

4 hours ago, jdhorn92 said:

Ouch, was it that bad of a take?  I guess so.

Well, you threw a lifeline to Baylor, so ... yeah.  Bad take.

[statsman 5675]

It’s all about money. 
Big time D-1 football Drives endowment donations. That’s the big money. When Baylor beat Texas before a sold out home crowd last fall, on a national broadcast, the Baylor administration gleefully roamed the suites, asking for donations. 
The old model- be in a big time conference, hire top coaches and pay them what it takes to keep them- was a workable model. Big time conferences have big time games, and big time media payouts. 
Conferences bundled games, because not every game has the same value. Texas-OU is worth a hell of a lot more than TCU-WVU. The B12 did something smart, starting 15 years ago- it emphasized offense (the holding by TT against UT was a feature, not a bug, in 2008) to increase the attractiveness of the broadcasts. 
Technology (streaming) meant that a “broadcast” could reach anyone in the Us that really wanted to see it. This meant that larger alum bases counted more, even if they’re dispersed. This increased the value of the more popular programs. 
Money counts more, now, in the NIL age, especially with free player movement. The ability of a coach like Gundy, Snyder or Patterson to identify high potential talent means less if they can’t afford the payments to keep them. 
What are the best potential matchups in the reconfigured Big XII? OSU-TT? Cincy-BYU? Any rivalries in there that move the needle? What are the second best matchups? ISU-KSU? TCU- UH?

How does that compare with the best PAC matchups? They still have Cal-Stanford and the Apple Cup. They still have UA-ASU. Oregon and UW still move the dial. 
My guess is that the next B12 media contract will be a disappointment, compared to prior ones and what other conferences get. 
I guess the ACC is in semi solid shape. If they were to offer a B12 school, they should take it. If the PAC offers (even if you figure UW and Oregon are gone), they should take it (the Rose Bowl gives them an anchor of sorts). Yeah, the B12 should try to poach schools (although Arizona and ASU have to recruit Texas and California, for lack of instate talent), but understand that it is third in prospects now, behind ACC and PAC. 

[statsman 5675]

In a world that suited the big XII perfectly, there would be salary caps, limits on transfers in conference, revenue sharing and locked in conference memberships. 
That is not the work the Big XII exists in. 

[mdmost 43848]

1 hour ago, Sbbruin said:

How stuck are the current PAC and Big 12 to their current makeup.  Seems to me the recent additions to the Big 12 no longer make sense, not all of them.  Seems like you could create a decent conference with the best of each conference.  Although you still lack real solid media markets outside of Dallas and Seattle.  The Bay Area doesn’t watch Cal/Stanford,

Yeah I posed a question similar to this earlier. I honestly can't see which conference has the upper hand now. The Big 12 has the more football relevant teams, especially the ones coming in like Cincinnati. The Pac 12 has the better TV markets: San Jose/SF, Denver, Seattle, Portland, Phoenix. The problem is neither is in a really strong position to get a good contract as both lost the bell cows of their conferences. Yeah, you have the TV markets but you're not what people tune in for. It's not like the Arizonas jumping to the Big 12 is going to benefit either. So if we look at Big 12 football versus Pac 12 football, I guess you give the Pac 12 a little more of a nod since Oregon, Washington, and Utah have all been CFP relevant teams. The Big 12 has been OU and a gaggle of others who were on the cusp. But a merger could work if Oregon, Stanford, and Washington get a ticket to the Big 10. Then it's 12 + 7/8 to get to 20 for the Big Pac 10/12. 

[VABuckeye 2481]

2 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

Florida St, Clemson, UNC, and UVA are invites 1-4.

As much as UNC and UVA may want to go to the Big Ten with Maryland, joining a coast to coast conference with Rutgers isn’t as appealing as it once was.  Add in that the Big Ten may not have many spots left for tag-a-longs and I could see them choosing the SEC which offers a more regional conference with same/better money and they have the ability to bring their partner like Duke/VT.

Remember that to schools like UNC and UVA it's only partially about the athletics.  Joining the B1G gives them access to the BTAA research and grant money in addition to already being AAU members.  Right now it's a pile just north of $10 billion that is split and it could grow as well.  Academically, they'd be salivating to join the B1G over the SEC.

[TKthunder2 5058]

1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I assume UCLA and USC are going to use the shit of Wheels Up for men’s basketball, baseball, and women’s basketball? 
 

Is softball flying coach to Columbus? 

Basketball is easy and can be a small charter, but they play so close together that’s not a big deal.

For baseball they can do 2 weeks away at a time and charter together as travel partners.  Large charters LAX to ORD, and small charters to wherever else they are playing.

Fly out on Th. Play conference series Fri-Sun.  Play at a MAC level school on Tuesday then play another conference series Th-Sat.  If they really care about saving travel cost some of the Midwest schools could fly back to LAX on the same charter, and they would play USC/UCLA in back to back weeks.

[Sandbagging Steve 982]

Paraphrasing John WIlner (who broke the USC/UCLA story) on the radio: If ND doesn't insist on Stanford to the B1G, or Stanford declines the offer, Stanford and Cal may both eliminate their football programs. They're wired differently and the faculties at both schools, which have major clout in their decision-making processes, don't want to continue in college football.

I think that is a good possibility. The fan attendance at both schools is nonexistent. 

Stanford is the #1 reason the PAC sank to the bottom of the ocean in the first place. Arrogant leadership that pretty much ran the PAC for decades. 

[clapclapclap 9000]

Lots of rumors, including from Wilner, that USC may have requested the FOXb1g NOT add Oregon.  Would prefer they and UCLA be an island, in part for recruiting reasons.  No idea on the accuracy, but it's out there.

While the athletes will certainly spend more time on planes, it should be a net neutral to maybe even a slight improvement for the average of how late they arrive back home.  The 2 hour earlier difference for central time zone schools, which would be the sizeable majority of their schedules, more than makes up for the extra miles when compared to the WA, OR, and CO schools (and for much of the Spring and Fall AZ is on Pac time).  Longer flights, but games ending 2 hours earlier.  

[Deej 77667]

 

7 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

Lots of rumors, including from Wilner, that USC may have requested the FOXb1g NOT add Oregon

Hope that was more than a gentlemens agreement. 

[Vertigo 20461]

5 minutes ago, Deej said:

 

Hope that was more than a gentlemens agreement. 

That would be the biggest all time bitch slap in the entire realignment era. Fuck yo shoes Phil Knight.

Edited July 3, 2022 by Vertigo

[closetohumping 17776]

2 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I assume UCLA and USC are going to use the shit of Wheels Up for men’s basketball, baseball, and women’s basketball? 
 

Is softball flying coach to Columbus? 

They're doubling their TV revenue.  Maybe some of that will go to travel costs?  Is WVA prepared to fly into Provo? 

[utee94 16065]

12 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

They're doubling their TV revenue.  Maybe some of that will go to travel costs?  Is WVA prepared to fly into Provo? 

More than doubling, something like 3x and maybe more.  They can afford to charter some planes.

Edited July 3, 2022 by utee94

[SimkinsMan 4544]

37 minutes ago, Sandbagging Steve said:

Paraphrasing John WIlner (who broke the USC/UCLA story) on the radio: If ND doesn't insist on Stanford to the B1G, or Stanford declines the offer, Stanford and Cal may both eliminate their football programs. They're wired differently and the faculties at both schools, which have major clout in their decision-making processes, don't want to continue in college football.

I think that is a good possibility. The fan attendance at both schools is nonexistent. 

Stanford is the #1 reason the PAC sank to the bottom of the ocean in the first place. Arrogant leadership that pretty much ran the PAC for decades. 

Even before USC and UCLA went public with the Big 10 announcement, there were noises from Stanford and Cal that they were not interested in playing the NIL game or competing at the top level of the "new" college football. I think it's most likely they either take a step back, in terms of competition, or end their football programs altogether.

[closetohumping 17776]

24 minutes ago, utee94 said:

More than doubling, something like 3x and maybe more.  They can afford to charter some planes.

Numbers haven’t officially been verified but I was being conservative and my argument still looks good.  Most common projection I’ve seen is that it could more than double.  Travel costs will not be an issue.   
 

 

but again, ucf and wva have to travel to Provo and vice versa.  Not that much of a difference except lax likely has a lot more flights than Morgantown 

Edited July 3, 2022 by closetohumping

[utee94 16065]

5 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Numbers haven’t officially been verified but I was being conservative and my argument still looks good.  Most common projection I’ve seen is that it could more than double.  Travel costs will not be an issue.   
 

 

but again, ucf and wva have to travel to Provo and vice versa.  Not that much of a difference except lax likely has a lot more flights than Morgantown 

Yeah, sorry, was agreeing with you not trying to be argumentative.

 

[VABuckeye 2481]

52 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

They're doubling their TV revenue.  Maybe some of that will go to travel costs?  Is WVA prepared to fly into Provo? 

Tripling.  At least. 

[Gidnik 3475]

Cross posting but it’s a good read by wilner 

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw-husky-football/pac-12-mailbag-kliavkoffs-culpability-expansion-options-wsus-connections-and-more/

 

[Hagbard Celine 11157]

apologies to al4isu... this will hurt

az, azsu, colorado and utah somehow ditch the pac

washington & oregon are gone and will drop their baggage the moment the b1g calls

and they will never not be a risk to do so, so fuck the northwest, build your own future

the 4 Corners Conference ::

first order of business: they need a piece of texas and a piece of california.....

+aztec, +tceh

adjacent teams that make sense for each of those.....

+unlv, +okie lite

that's 8, halfway there....

because this is the 4 Corners conference the principals need geographic gravity to hold it together...

+co state, +nm +nm state +ut state

that's 12.  i think you stop there

or not even go in to new mexico and stop at 10

otherwise you need 4 more from this list:

air force, boise state, isu, ksu, nevada, window cougar, wyoming

why is kansas not on the list? because until they are in the b1g they are always going to be a risk to go

and why is that bad for isu? because the risk of kansas leaving makes isu/ksu/ku too much of a risk to take somewhere new

 

[Hagbard Celine 11157]

9 minutes ago, Gidnik said:

Cross posting but it’s a good read by wilner 

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw-husky-football/pac-12-mailbag-kliavkoffs-culpability-expansion-options-wsus-connections-and-more/

 

paywall defeated

https://www.textise.net/showText.aspx?strURL=https%3A//www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw-husky-football/pac-12-mailbag-kliavkoffs-culpability-expansion-options-wsus-connections-and-more%25EF%25BF%25BC/#content

[Francisco 2.0 32542]

Paywall article.  Maybe it's fan fiction.  Maybe not.

https://247sports.com/college/arizona/Article/arizona-meeting-big-12-this-week-189624231/

Arizona to have meeting with Big 12 this week

Quote

Sources indicate to WildcatAuthority that there will be significant discussions between the Big 12 and Pac-12 this week. It would include four Pac-12 members joining the Big 12.

 

 

[Zhorn96 1833]

5 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Fan support!? At Cal?!  

 

It’s way better at Cal than Stanford.  The Cardinal have maybe, 10 fans.  Cal is in the triple digits at least 

[thunderlounge 8318]

 

[AeroHorn 793]

49 minutes ago, Zhorn96 said:

It’s way better at Cal than Stanford.  The Cardinal have maybe, 10 fans.  Cal is in the triple digits at least 

True to silicon valley roots, I see that you are a fan of binary numbers.

Stanford and Cal are all about Olympic sports, and of course academics, research and the startups. Nobody will miss football.

[Deej 77667]

1 hour ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Paywall article.  Maybe it's fan fiction.  Maybe not.

https://247sports.com/college/arizona/Article/arizona-meeting-big-12-this-week-189624231/

Arizona to have meeting with Big 12 this week

 

 

History shows admission to the Big 12 will not end well. 

[Deej 77667]

14 minutes ago, AeroHorn said:

True to silicon valley roots, I see that you are a fan of binary numbers.

Stanford and Cal are all about Olympic sports, and of course academics, research and the startups. Nobody will miss football.

Notre Dame will.

[Sandbagging Steve 982]

I still don't think this is the end of the world for the leftovers not in the eventual SEC/B1G. I think the finished number for the SEC/B1G may be 42 to 44 before any possible purging within the SEC/B1G. I could see one to four teams purged at some point down the road. Vanderbilt is an example way down the road.

Here's a ray of sunshine for the 3rd Conference. If they are patient and form a good conference, with a little creativity they can survive. We will call them the Big 20 Conference here.

((This doesn't include the outside possibility that Oregon and Washington are excluded from the SEC/B1G. We could lose a team or two from the list as well.))

Take no weeks off per team, including thru the month of December, and finish the season before the SEC/B1G. The #1 vs. #2 for the Big 20 Championship. They then could possibly play the winner of the "other" conference (leftover P5/MWC/Old AAC). With the added games and the playoff, and a willingness to play a weekday game and one late night game per week, I can see this worth $40,000,000 per team for the Big 20 Conference (not the "other' conference). If the winner of that playoff has only one loss, I can see them getting into a 12 team national championship playoff.

 

1. Oklahoma State 

2. TCU

 

3. Texas Tech

4. Baylor

5. Houston

 

 

6. Arizona State

7. BYU

8. Utah

9. Colorado

10. Arizona

------------------------------

11. Louisville

12. West Virginia

13. Pitt

14. Cincinnati 

15. Iowa State

 

16. UCF

17. Georgia Tech (NC State or Syracuse) Best left out of the SEC/B1G

17. Kansas State

18. Kansas

19. Memphis

 

Play all 4 of the teams in your division

Play all 5 teams in your corresponding division

Play 3 teams from one of the other divisions for two years and then 2 teams the following two years.

Play 2 teams from the last division for two years and then 3 teams the following two years.

 

14 conference games and 1 OOC game against the SEC/B1G.

#1 vs. #2 for the Big 20 Championship

Possibility but maybe not the best idea: Play the conference champion of the one other league remaining at this level of football (Oregon State, WSU, Fresno St., SDSU, Syracuse, Temple, South Florida, Wake Forest, etc.)

A chance at the national championship playoff

It would add 2 or 3 games per year, but I think that's where we are heading anyway. The kids now get paid more, so they are going to play more. The current D2/D3 already has a large playoff.
 

 

 

[Sandbagging Steve 982]

^^^ Edit: It was supposed to be $30,000,000 and there's two number 17s.

$25,000,000 per team in today's setup plus an increase of over 20% in inventory with the additional games. I could see someone overpaying a little for it and giving $35,000,000. It would be competitive live football and that's valuable.

[TKthunder2 5058]

You think the Big Ten and SEC will give a playoff spot to another conference.  The SEC commissioner warned them not to turn down the playoff deal. I doubt they leave any open spots for the PAC/MWC/B12/AAC/MAC/ACC/SBC.

[Bateshorn 9989]

5 hours ago, VABuckeye said:

Remember that to schools like UNC and UVA it's only partially about the athletics.  Joining the B1G gives them access to the BTAA research and grant money in addition to already being AAU members.  Right now it's a pile just north of $10 billion that is split and it could grow as well.  Academically, they'd be salivating to join the B1G over the SEC.

This.  As much as everyone yells about TV revenues: it’s the administration and overhead off Fed Grant money that keeps the lights on at a university, particularly R1s.  Most schools pull 55-60% off of every federal grant for non research overhead. The big dogs (R1/AAU) tend to eat first at the NIH/NSF/DOE Science bowl first.

[Sandbagging Steve 982]

4 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

You think the Big Ten and SEC will give a playoff spot to another conference.  The SEC commissioner warned them not to turn down the playoff deal. I doubt they leave any open spots for the PAC/MWC/B12/AAC/MAC/ACC/SBC.

It depends on who has the TV rights. If ESPN has the TV rights for weekday games and late night games, and the said team is worthy of a spot, I think ESPN would like that setup. It keeps more fans involved and watching more games. 

[BevoSwag 272]

The topic of Vandy being purged from the SEC is covered well by all schools in the SEC.  Vandy will never be purged.  

[XOVERX 5]

I think JRsec is right: There will be an NCAA breakaway by the SEC and B1G. A breakaway means March Madness as it exists today will change. The SEC and B1G will have their own basketball playoff, perhaps incorporating other leagues into that basketball playoff over time. In other words, basketball will become significantly more lucrative without the NCAA taking the largest part of the payout.

Of course, the college football world is waiting on ND right now.

For purposes of this post, let's assume the following: First, ND goes B1G and not SEC. Second, except for ND, the B1G will continue to add schools that are AAU. Third, the B1G would not go past 24 schools at this point in realignment.

With the addition of USC and UCLA to the B1G, the PAC is seriously injured. If ND leaves the ACC, the ACC would be seriously injured. Here are the AAU schools out there that the B1G might reasonably consider to add if ND goes B1G: Arizona, Utah, Kansas, North Carolina, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, Duke, Virginia, Washington, Georgia Tech, and Colorado.

Since the PAC is more recently traumatized, plus its TV contract expires in 2025, I suspect the B1G would first fill out to 20 by taking ND and 3 from the West, to include at least Oregon and Washington, which gives the B1G massive presence in the West (something like 47% of all West Coast TV viewers).

Add one more school from this group: Arizona, Utah, Kansas, Cal, Stanford, and Colorado. I would guess Stanford, but no matter, pick your own favorite, and now the B1G is at 20.

With ND leaving the ACC, it would seem to be a matter of time before the ACC bleeds schools (most likely a lot sooner than 2036). From the B1G pov, here is who the B1G could take to get to 24: Kansas, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, and Georgia Tech. The B1G's choices are more limited in the ACC even when Kansas is included. I doubt the B1G would go back to the West when ACC suitors begin calling.

The linchpin, of course, is UNC. Both the SEC and UNC want UNC. Whichever league gets UNC, Duke is reportedly a take linked to UNC. It is also possible that UVA could become linked to UNC-Duke. Both leagues would take all 3 of those schools.

SCENARIO 1 - B1G WINS UNC:

If UNC, Duke, and UVA go to the B1G, I think the B1G would then take GT, get deep into SEC country and call it a league. I don't think the B1G would choose KU over GT, but this is a guess.

UNC and Duke to the B1G would take two huge basketball schools off the SEC board. But if basketball is worth the gamble, Kansas would possibly still be out there for the SEC. With no AAU requirement, Louisville plays good basketball periodically. Similarly, Syracuse has a ton of basketball fans.

On the football side, FSU and Clemson are there. Also, the SEC still gets that NC/VA presence by taking lesser lights NCSU and VPI and the SEC just "grows" them, to the chagrin of UNC (although UVA maybe wouldn't care).

Maybe retaliate against the B1G if it took GT by the SEC taking Pitt, striking deep into B1G country? Maybe take CU (because I love that road trip to Boulder, lol)?

The point is the SEC has lots of options even if UNC, Duke, and UVA go to the B1G. What's not clear is whether the remaining schools, even with basketball, and future basketball revenue after a breakaway, are sufficiently accretive to add to the SEC.

SCENARIO 2 - SEC WINS UNC:

OTOH, does UNC want to cede the SEC and southern recruiting to NCSU? Seriously? Texas wasn't willing to take that gamble viz-a-viz Texas A&M. And without the AAU requirement, the SEC has flexibility to take in a lot more ACC schools than does the B1G, which also would help to persuade UNC, right?

So, now let's assume UNC and Duke go to the SEC and not to the B1G. Maybe UVA tags along, maybe they don't, but VPI is sitting there for SEC taking if UVA fails to show. The states of NC and VA are covered, period, in either scenario.

FSU and Clemson get a ticket, almost certainly, so let's get them off the table.

Now the SEC takes Kansas if they are still there because they have a legendary basketball heritage. The SEC could go further still in basketball with Louisville. Even further with Syracuse.

As wildcards, there's still Pitt and CU, possibly Utah (although I wouldn't think anything past KU is realistically in play for the SEC).

Anyhow, under Scenario 2, both football and basketball are strengthened. It would seem that UNC is the key from the SEC pov, not ND. If the SEC can add all of UNC, Duke, Kansas, possibly Louisville, maybe Syracuse, to add to Kentucky (and other SEC powers), the SEC would certainly be set for basketball revenue yearly come March Madness.

Edited July 4, 2022 by XOVERX

[Bateshorn 9989]

I think the B1G wants UNC AND Kansas, if you add Arizona and Duke. At that point, you can pretty much tear the NCAA and March Madness apart and have your own basketball league (NCAA Is pulling something close to $1 billion off of March Madness).

whoever posted the tweet from a decade ago that there will ultimately be 2 leagues : Fox and ESPN was right.

 

If the B1G can add Oregon, Washington, Kansas, Arizona, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, and Notre Dame, you’ve more or less got all the premium AAU sports programs on lock down outside of Tree, which is so rich and prestigious it’s DGAF. 

Edited July 4, 2022 by Bateshorn

[Sandbagging Steve 982]

1 minute ago, BevoSwag said:

The topic of Vandy being purged from the SEC is covered well by all schools in the SEC.  Vandy will never be purged.  

You're not thinking it out. Stanford is worth way more and they may bail just simply because they don't want to be involved in football from this point forward.

USC and UCLA just left a conference they've been in for over 100 years.

There's more teams that deserve to be added to the SEC/B1G but only Notre Dame technically carries their own weight. The reason for this is because the top 6 to 10 programs are worth a fortune. The next 6 to 10 carry their own weight. They then need competition to play. In order to continue adding the UNCs, VTs, FSUs, and Clemsons of the world, eventually, you may need to purge someone. It's the reason the B1G wants ND first. They are one of the Big 6 programs that then allows them to add one to three more teams without losing much value. SEC can probably add two more of the top programs remaining without losing value because the addition of Texas. Want to add more than that? Well, there's no more Bluebloods left, so the only way you can do that without losing money is purging someone. Why are the SEC/B1G wanting to add these programs? To eliminate the weak teams from the other conferences. And, eventually, someone from their own conference may be eliminated too.

It's quite possible the names SEC/B1G don't even exist in the future. They could all merge and the name changes.

Vanderbilt is costing the SEC well over $100,000,000 per year within the next few years. Not making, costing them. 

They will probably stay in the league for all other sports and play some OOC games with the SEC teams.  I think they would agree that they don't belong at this level. NIL, huge stadiums, competitive matchups every single week. I'm not saying it is going to happen. But it's definitely a possibility. If it does, it will be down the road.

[Sandbagging Steve 982]

9 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I think the B1G wants UNC AND Kansas, if you add Arizona and Duke. At that point, you can pretty much tear the NCAA and March Madness apart and have your own basketball league (NCAA Is pulling something close to $1 billion off of March Madness).

whoever posted the tweet from a decade ago that there will ultimately be 2 leagues : Fox and ESPN was right.

 

If the B1G can add Oregon, Washington, Kansas, Arizona, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, and Notre Dame, you’ve more or less got all the premium AAU sports programs on lock down outside of Tree, which is so rich and prestigious it’s DGAF. 

This is another possible long term play.

[Sandbagging Steve 982]

Oregon and Washington are reported to be worth $60,000,000 total. They would need to be worth close to $150,000,000 to keep the B1G from losing money. Those numbers come from a former TV executive. Oregon and Washington are both borderline top 20 programs overall. In other words, really damn good.

This shows the branding power of tOSU, Texas, Michigan, Notre Dame and Penn State with USC coming in behind them. You then have just a few more programs that can even cover their own weight. After that, it's competition for these teams to play. The better the competition, and closer to break even you can get, the better. In order to add the Clemsons and other teams that deserve to be included, you eventually have to demote a bottom feeder or take a $40,000,000 to $55,000,000 per year loss to revenue for every single team added.

This is why the B1G prefers to wait on ND. And this is why, down the road, a deadweight or two could get purged.

With Texas just added, the SEC could be the next to add teams. They have extra money to spend on adding two teams because they just added one of the Big 6 teams, Texas. It will come down to GOR agreements. ND may be easier for the B1G to pry loose from the GOR. We will see.