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Realignment talk not going away

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Posted by Sandbagging Steve,

How many teams will be left when the dust settles in a few years? I think there's a way for all the teams to still have some involvement. I will explain that at the end of this list. Here's my list of the top 32 programs and a list if it goes to 48. There's some debate if it goes to 48, but not much debate if it stops at 32. I guess one could debate Arizona State, but that's about it. The top 32 at least come close to carrying their own weight. Everyone below that line is losing money for t

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Aggy should abstain so the vote is 13-0 and then we can then brand it on their dog.

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MrBig

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UCLA & USC are two schools in the SAME city two time zones away from the rest of the Big Ten. This move makes Fox look desperate to pump up the Big Ten as a super conference on par with ESPN and the new SEC. 

Adding USC to the Big Ten is Fox’s way of signaling Notre Dame to join. They’re pressing their titties up to the glass and shouting for Notre Dame to suck on both nipples of their rivalries with USC and Michigan. 

 

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oSuJeff97

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3 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

image.png.2717a29346b6b42fb8d0bc628e2c7133.png
 

Baylor pulls less than 1/3 the tv viewers than Texas waning they are a 1/3 less valuable (and that’s being generous).  Despite that the Big 12 tv deal is an aggregate and Baylor pulls in an equal payout as Texas. Back in the day when we had unequal revenue distribution UT/OU (and USC/UCLA) would have received more money equal to their increased value to the conference, but after the 2010 realignment that all went away and everyone went to equal revenue sharing after Nebraska’s bitching.  The unintended consequence is that the bluebloods felt unappreciated and were no long satisfied to sit in a weaker conference with a weaker payout while their peer institutions were about to pull in $100 million a year.  Had the Big12 or PAC12 realized how beneficial the tv payouts were to the Baylor/Washington States of the conference and how they negatively impacted their blueblood and made adjustments then perhaps this could have been avoided.  Instead the lesser members of the conference enjoyed a free decade of big $ payout that they only received because they leached money away from their bluebloods, meanwhile they complained about the LHN and the LA schools wanting additional revenue from the region channel, and now they are pissed that the gravy train is over. Funny enough the very first thing both conferences offer was to provide UT/OU and USC/UCLA more money, there wasn’t a long drawn out discussion as everyone knew they were worth more than they were getting, but at that point the damage was already done, why stay with the conference that knew for a fact that they were underpaying you and complaining about you at the same time for a decade.  If you knew UT/OU USC/UCLA we’re key to your entire conference to survive then why treat them like shit.  Greed.  Which ironically is the same sin they are throwing back at the departing schools on their way out the door.

Oh give me a fucking break.

Explain to me then why the two power conferences that are left standing - the B1G and the SEC - have had equal revenue sharing from the get-go?

How come the “bluebloods” in those league didn’t feel “under appreciated” and get their vaginas all sandy when the Vanderbilts and Mississippi States and Indianas were benefiting from the big contracts those leagues got primarily because of the blue bloods?

Perhaps because, unlike some other butthurt programs, they DID realize that equal revenue sharing would be good for the entire conference because it would enable the non-blue blood programs to invest in their programs and make them better, lifting up the profile of the entire conference.

It’s hard to argue with the results, given who is going to be left standing at the end of the day.

P.S. The idea that the Big 12 treated OU or Texas “like shit” is fucking comically laughable.

 

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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11784

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The USC/UCLA move is what Burton warned us about for years. If Texas didn’t join the SEC they’d have to make a similar move. Weird geographic fit, one or fewer travel partners, constant time zone issues, and harming the non-revenue sports. 
 

The Trojans and Bruins had to do it, but they got what got for being reactive. 

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Not a Sock

Not a Sock 2362

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8 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Oh give me a fucking break.

Explain to me then why the two power conferences that are left standing - the B1G and the SEC - have had equal revenue sharing from the get-go?

How come the “bluebloods” in those league didn’t feel “under appreciated” and get their vaginas all sandy when the Vanderbilts and Mississippi States and Indianas were benefiting from the big contracts those leagues got primarily because of the blue bloods?

Perhaps because, unlike some other butthurt programs, they DID realize that equal revenue sharing would be good for the entire conference because it would enable the non-blue blood programs to invest in their programs and make them better, lifting up the profile of the entire conference.

It’s hard to argue with the results, given who is going to be left standing at the end of the day.

P.S. The idea that the Big 12 treated OU or Texas “like shit” is fucking comically laughable.

 

Because they weren't full of pissants, they had an actual core of quality programs to build the conference around, the Big 8 and SWC were 4 power programs with a dozen ticks hanging on it was completely and utterly kept alive by Texas, OU, Nebraska and A&M. Instead of the Big 12 being formed from the absolutely awful corpses of the SWC and big 8 Texas and A&M bolt for the SEC or Pac and OU and NU are able to jump to the Big 10 what happens to the rest of the conference? OSU, KSU, Baylor, TTU, KU, ISU where fucking hot garbage for decades, there was no middle class to hold up the rest of the conference it was all third rate teams in 5th rate markets.  

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MrBig

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5 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

The USC/UCLA move is what Burton warned us about for years. If Texas didn’t join the SEC they’d have to make a similar move. Weird geographic fit, one or fewer travel partners, constant time zone issues, and harming the non-revenue sports. 
 

The Trojans and Bruins had to do it, but they got what got for being reactive. 

This move was the right move for the LA schools to take. The Pac 12 was already dying since they haven’t been competitive in years. The East Coast doesn’t give a shit about Pac football if they’re kicking off at 9PM.

Future moves will be aligned in the vein of Pac 12/Big 12 to Big Ten. Larger schools will go to the Big Ten and the Big Pac mashup remnants will be for Fox to decide what’s best for viewership. 

ACC teams will lean toward the SEC and ESPN. I would not be surprised if the SEC takes Clemson, UNC, Duke, and FSU to give the kill shot to the ACC. 

People say Duke will never join the SEC, but schools know they have to join one or the other at this point to remain viable. Adding UNC and Duke to the SEC gives the conference lower tier football competition while creating more control in the basketball realm. The SEC gains another few football Vandys for their divisions to kick around while gaining control of college basketball by having UK, Duke, and UNC in the same conference. 

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TKthunder2

TKthunder2 5058

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26 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Oh give me a fucking break.

Explain to me then why the two power conferences that are left standing - the B1G and the SEC - have had equal revenue sharing from the get-go?

How come the “bluebloods” in those league didn’t feel “under appreciated” and get their vaginas all sandy when the Vanderbilts and Mississippi States and Indianas were benefiting from the big contracts those leagues got primarily because of the blue bloods?

Perhaps because, unlike some other butthurt programs, they DID realize that equal revenue sharing would be good for the entire conference because it would enable the non-blue blood programs to invest in their programs and make them better, lifting up the profile of the entire conference.

It’s hard to argue with the results, given who is going to be left standing at the end of the day.

P.S. The idea that the Big 12 treated OU or Texas “like shit” is fucking comically laughable.

 

I said undervalued.  They used conference realignment to undervalue UT/OU and hoped that the gravy train would continue in perpetuity.  If they had stopped and looked past their immediate greed and thought about how this would affect UT/OU in the long term then maybe they would have taken less money for longer term security.  While most of the Big12/PAC12is just happy to collect a check and have their names on the ESPN crawler each week, obviously UT/OU/USC/UCLA are not now now those chickens have come home to roost.

The other leagues can support a few underperforming programs but the Big 12 and PAC12 are so bottom heavy it was never going to be a viable long term situation, which many of us have been discussing on here for the last decade.

https://medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach/which-college-football-programs-bring-in-the-most-tv-viewers-efc03c689e50

SEC before UT/OU has 8 in the top 20

B1G before USC/UCLA has 7 in the top 22

B12 w/o UT/OU have 2 in the top 25, Okie St at 19 and TCU at 25

P12 has USC in the top 20 w/ Stanford, Oregon, Washington, UCLA clustered  in the 25-32 range

ACC has 3 in the top 25 (Clemson, FSU, Miami)

It’s easy to help out a few long term rivals by subsidizing a little bit (especially if they bring other beneficial qualities to the conference) but what the non-SEC/B1G conferences were doing was providing far more than just a little subsidy which is why the TV dollar were never going to be close this time around.

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statsman

statsman 5675

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39 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Oh give me a fucking break.

Explain to me then why the two power conferences that are left standing - the B1G and the SEC - have had equal revenue sharing from the get-go?

How come the “bluebloods” in those league didn’t feel “under appreciated” and get their vaginas all sandy when the Vanderbilts and Mississippi States and Indianas were benefiting from the big contracts those leagues got primarily because of the blue bloods?

Perhaps because, unlike some other butthurt programs, they DID realize that equal revenue sharing would be good for the entire conference because it would enable the non-blue blood programs to invest in their programs and make them better, lifting up the profile of the entire conference.

It’s hard to argue with the results, given who is going to be left standing at the end of the day.

P.S. The idea that the Big 12 treated OU or Texas “like shit” is fucking comically laughable.

 

Sorry. The populations of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Iowa are trending the wrong way. There is no way that the B12 have nots can “invest” to build their programs to better status. They recruit Texas. They take and take, and never give. Texas wants its fair share and OSU wants Texas’ fair share. This may look like a good reality you. 

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DFW Horn

DFW Horn 6637

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1 minute ago, Surly Bevo said:

I know it's just a graphic for the sake of a graphic but LoL at the idea of the folks of Carthage, TX giving a fuck about TCU or those Del Rio denizens being all "Sic Em Bears"

I've not spent much time in either town. Carthage = aggy? Del Rio = what?

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Surly Bevo

Surly Bevo 25654

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You also have to understand the ground you are fighting on.  Yea you can point to the SEC and say, "look all those schools made equal revenue sharing work, why the fuck not here?"  Well maybe just maybe look at the history of the SWC for starters to see that the go along to get along thing doesn't play as well in Texas football....maybe it should but that's a philosophical discussion which is fine to have and all but sort of ignores the realities on the ground that for whatever reason the Texas football schools (even the smaller ones) are always school first....conference waaaaaay second.  

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XOVERX

XOVERX 5

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Posted
3 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

SSN is good with maps. GT over UNC, UVA, and Duke?

I hope this is the B1G map. That map means the ACC has crumbled.

If the ACC has crumbled, that means the SEC has taken UNC, UVA, FSU, and Clemson.

It also leaves the SEC open to building a helluva basketball league if it wanted to go to 24, which I think is a reasonable probability. When the breakaway happens, basketball will have excellent value.

 

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DFW Horn

DFW Horn 6637

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If the ACC has crumbled, that means the SEC has taken UNC, UVA, FSU, and Clemson.

It also leaves the SEC open to building a helluva basketball league if it wanted to go to 24, which I think is a reasonable probability. When the breakaway happens, basketball will have excellent value.

 

The NCAA Tournament is one thing the NCAA manages well, IMO. I'd hate to see the mid-majors get shut out and not participate bc I enjoy seeing Gonzaga and others compete. Who doesn't love an underdog?

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Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Oh give me a fucking break.

Explain to me then why the two power conferences that are left standing - the B1G and the SEC - have had equal revenue sharing from the get-go?

How come the “bluebloods” in those league didn’t feel “under appreciated” and get their vaginas all sandy when the Vanderbilts and Mississippi States and Indianas were benefiting from the big contracts those leagues got primarily because of the blue bloods?

Perhaps because, unlike some other butthurt programs, they DID realize that equal revenue sharing would be good for the entire conference because it would enable the non-blue blood programs to invest in their programs and make them better, lifting up the profile of the entire conference.

It’s hard to argue with the results, given who is going to be left standing at the end of the day.

P.S. The idea that the Big 12 treated OU or Texas “like shit” is fucking comically laughable.

 

No, these conferences had equal revenue sharing because the schools were relatively equal in the past.  They are not power because of equal revenue sharing.

And next time someone from the Big talks about being equal, ask them to justify paying Nebraska tens of millions less than Iowa St. got in the Big 12 prior to full revenue sharing.  And paying Rutgers $11 million when others got $54 million.  Nobody has raped their new members like the Big 10.

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XOVERX

XOVERX 5

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

The NCAA Tournament is one thing the NCAA manages well, IMO. I'd hate to see the mid-majors get shut out and not participate bc I enjoy seeing Gonzaga and others compete. Who doesn't love an underdog?

Who says Gonzaga would be shut out?  Gonzaga could play, get their cut, depending on how many games they won and how many folks watched them play. Ditto the others.

Changes are coming. It is not clear if the changes are "good" or "bad", but they will be "different". And I suspect much more lucrative than what exists today.

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TKthunder2

TKthunder2 5058

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10 minutes ago, XOVERX said:

Who says Gonzaga would be shut out?  Gonzaga could play, get their cut, depending on how many games they won and how many folks watched them play. Ditto the others.

Changes are coming. It is not clear if the changes are "good" or "bad", but they will be "different". And I suspect much more lucrative than what exists today.

No one has said it yet, but the basketball tournament is worth over a billion dollars a year and less than half of that goes to the power 5 conferences.  If you think these schools will abandon long time rivals in football but then turn around and stump for a small catholic university in rural Washington state in basketball then I got some beach front property to sell you in Arizona.  Hosting a power 5 only tournament may not pull in the same amount of money as the current tournament, but it will mean more money overall for the power 5.  Love it or hate it, to me this seems inevitable.

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XOVERX

XOVERX 5

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Posted
1 minute ago, TKthunder2 said:

No one has said it yet, but the basketball tournament is worth over a billion dollars a year and less than half of that goes to the power 5 conferences.  If you think these schools will abandon long time rivals in football but then turn around and stump for a small catholic university in rural Washington state in basketball then I got some beach front property to sell you in Arizona.  Hosting a power 5 only tournament may not pull in the same amount of money as the current tournament, but it will mean more money overall for the power 5.  Love it or hate it, to me this seems inevitable.

Are we talking past each other?

I am not suggesting that Gonzaga, or Baylor, or South Dakota State be invited into the SEC, right? All I'm saying is that the SEC and B1G could breakaway from the NCAA, begin a basketball tournament, but let it include others who might qualify and want to play in it. Schools like Gonzaga, or Baylor, or South Dakota State.

As for the SEC, I am suggesting that if there were a breakaway, then, in a move to 24 schools, some "basketball schools" might suddenly have excellent value. Perhaps Kansas? Maybe Louisville? But not Gonzaga, or Baylor, or South Dakota State.

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oSuJeff97

oSuJeff97 3438

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1 hour ago, statsman said:

Sorry. The populations of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Iowa are trending the wrong way. There is no way that the B12 have nots can “invest” to build their programs to better status. They recruit Texas. They take and take, and never give. Texas wants its fair share and OSU wants Texas’ fair share. This may look like a good reality you. 

Yeah I keep forgetting how only states with booming populations like Alabama and Louisiana can have good football programs.

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statsman

statsman 5675

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1 minute ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Yeah I keep forgetting how only states with booming populations like Alabama and Louisiana can have good football programs.

Are you intentionally obtuse? It’s not about good football programs. It’s about popular football programs. That’s what the networks want to pay for. 
OSU has had Texas’ number. OSU played for the B12 title. Texas went 5-7. Yet- OSU, absent the Texas game, had 25% fewer viewers than Texas. (And that’s not even getting into relative demographics of viewers). Just how much revenue does Texas have to “share” to pull OSU up?

Mike Gundy is the greatest OSU coach ever. This is the program’s historic peak. Do you really think Texas is holding you back?

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Surly Bevo

Surly Bevo 25654

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Yeah I keep forgetting how only states with booming populations like Alabama and Louisiana can have good football programs.

State population isn't necessarily the main point anyway but since you went there. Alabama and Louisiana both have larger populations than any B12 state outside of Texas.   Mississippi and Arkansas is only two smaller than any B12 state (Texas, Georgia, Florida,  Tennessee, Missouri, Kentucky, South Carolina and the aforementioned Bama and LA all bigger)

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Sandbagging Steve

Sandbagging Steve 982

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Posted
1 hour ago, wildturkey8 said:

Anyone think this smacks of desperation by the B1G?  This superconference reeks of an artificial entity.  Cohesion issues could very well rear their head.

NO.

It's been 40 years in the making.

Some of these moves have been 100+ years in the making.

This was always the end game.

Way too many people on here that don't actually learn what is going on and just speak from emotion.

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Sandbagging Steve

Sandbagging Steve 982

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B1G is going to use the Big 10 Network (BTN) to make some of these teams work for now. Add a $1.50 to $2.00 per TV set within the region of the teams added to the conference. SEC/B1G will separate from the NCAA (and possibly join into one league down the road) and the B1G is going to try and make their BTN a college sports version of ESPN. It's why the they own a piece of their network. They will eventually have enough content throughout the country that they can command $3 to $4 for every TV set nationwide. It's why I've stated footprint still matters.

This is a race, a generation in the making, to eliminate the complete deadweight at the bottom of the P5 Conferences and consolidate assets to create more leverage.

 

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DFW Horn

DFW Horn 6637

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1 hour ago, TKthunder2 said:

No one has said it yet, but the basketball tournament is worth over a billion dollars a year and less than half of that goes to the power 5 conferences.  If you think these schools will abandon long time rivals in football but then turn around and stump for a small catholic university in rural Washington state in basketball then I got some beach front property to sell you in Arizona.  Hosting a power 5 only tournament may not pull in the same amount of money as the current tournament, but it will mean more money overall for the power 5.  Love it or hate it, to me this seems inevitable.

Hate it.

Underdogs are what make the current NCAA Tournament compelling, IMO.

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FartingDreamer

FartingDreamer 138

Posted
Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, maninblack said:

What a dumb fucking conference that'd be

 Wrong, it would be a competitive and interesting conference.  And if they add Pitt and Louisville and Miami...?  You have a national conference that can make a case for itself.  

Edited by FartingDreamer
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Vertigo

Vertigo 20461

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Posted
20 minutes ago, FartingDreamer said:

 Wrong, it would be a competitive and interesting conference.  And if they add Pitt and Louisville and Miami...?  You have a national conference that can make a case for itself.  

You could make a case that there would be a P3 structure to the upper echelons of football, but the gap between the top 2 will be large. It would be a much more competitive conference top to bottom, but you would be without a true perennial heavyweight to compete for championships unless Miami or Houston gets it’s act together.

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TriStone

TriStone 1724

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Posted
8 hours ago, Knighthawk said:

Fox and b1g should bag nd and then do whatever it takes to steal TX and the gooners before the sec ink dries.

Fuck. That.  Christ!  It's like some of you spend your free time examining all available opportunities to fuck up a very good thing.

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