Realignment talk not going away

[Francisco 2.0 32347]

1 hour ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Is that really true? 

I know that everybody is angling for this two mega-conference end game that we all seem headed for... but outside of Notre Dame, is there anybody out there that actually increases the payout per team? ]

 

Oh, we are in agreement.  There's no one left that can really be that impactful on a TV package other than ND.    And if it takes 4 schools to equal what USC is worth, then from a conference perspective at that point is it really worth the time and energy to somehow add 4 new mouths to feed.

But, there is no honor among thieves.  If hypothetically speaking Miami were shown to be worth an extra $100 million or so that ESPN could sell to advertisers on the premise that Miami were in the SEC vs the ACC, then ESPN is not going to object at all if Miami sued the ACC to escape to the SEC.

ESPN, the SEC, and the SEC member schools wouldn't give two shits how it happened; that everyone was going to make more money.

Regarding ND, what are they going to ask of whatever conference they join?  Will it be known as The BIG Featuring ND Conference?  Will ND get half of all gate proceeds on away trips?

The mind reels at what they can ask for (and possibly get).

 

 

[Saint Austin 745]

Cal may be too much like Stanford, who would turn up its nose to the Big 12, but there's definitely value in adding the Golden Bears.

[closetohumping 17410]

9 minutes ago, mdmost said:

I have a feeling that if ESPN is who the new Big 12 negotiates with then a stipulation is to let us go early with no buyout. Fox could grab up the Big 12 but is that really that big a deal if ESPN already has the ACC and SEC?  If Notre Dame stays independent, that's another feather in ESPN's cap as they get to broadcast the ACC away games Notre Dame plays. 

Yep.  I mean would the 8 teams leaving the Pac have to pay a buyout to presumably Cal/Stan/OSU/Wazzu?  I think not. Hopefully all sides agree to just move forward amicably.  Also, as of right now, if the Big 12 gets to 18, do they all get a piece of the buyout or just the original 8 that are left?  Big 12 teams are seeking damages but have no issues with hurting the PAC and AAC?

[mdmost 42893]

Interesting. Let's hope that happens. I think the Pac 12 is smart to try to beat the Big 12 to the punch on a new deal. And Fox or ESPN would be better served to get the deal over and done with, forcing the other to take the scraps. 

 

 

Edited July 5, 2022 by mdmost

[Zhorn96 1772]

1 minute ago, Saint Austin said:

Cal may be too much like Stanford, who would turn up its nose to the Big 12, but there's definitely value in adding the Golden Bears.

If the Big 10 is not an option, I dont think Cal would turn down the Big 12.  They've got a $400M+ stadium debt to pay off and even current TV money buys them time.  If no Big 10 or Big 12 happens, Cal's AD folds and the taxpayers eat that debt... That wont happen.  Allegedly, per Canzano with his Fox sources, Cal is worth $45M a year because of the Bay Area market (Oregon and Washington are $30Mish each) so someone will want them

[DFW Horn 6118]

4 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Yep.  I mean would the 8 teams leaving the Pac have to pay a buyout to presumably Cal/Stan/OSU/Wazzu?  I think not. Hopefully all sides agree to just move forward amicably.  Also, as of right now, if the Big 12 gets to 18, do they all get a piece of the buyout or just the original 8 that are left?  Big 12 teams are seeking damages but have no issues with hurting the PAC and AAC?

Nobody leaving the PAC will pay a buyout bc they're not leaving until the GoR expires after next year. That's the difference.

[closetohumping 17410]

Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

vacation fags who wanted to go to the PAC should all look themselves in the mirror and put on clown makeup. That conference is on it's death bed.

 

 I think things may have been different had they added us, ou and some leftovers.

['stache 21778]

9 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Interesting. Let's hope that happens. I think the Pac 12 is smart to try to beat the Big 12 to the punch on a new deal. And Fox or ESPN would be better served to get the deal over and done with, forcing the other to take the scraps. 

 

 

It definitely makes more sense that way since the Big XII is saddled with incoming mid-majors and east coast teams that don't fit geographically. I would hope that it would be a condition that the PAC replaces its commissioner with an outsider that can think outside the box. I like the incoming Big XII commish for that reason. I don't want to move to the PAC if its going to be the same 'ol, same 'ol trying to do the same as the BIG and SEC. It has to be different, embrace the moment and come up with something new. 

Edited July 5, 2022 by 'stache

[BurntOrange&White 39794]

Big 12 should push hard as fuck for the Arizona Schools to bolt....seems like the easiest combo to pull right now.

[DFW Horn 6118]

Why not just merge the Big 12 + Pac 12 and be first to the race for 20 teams?

Bay Area delusion/snobbery?

[closetohumping 17410]

5 minutes ago, 'stache said:

It definitely makes more sense that way since the Big XII is saddled with incoming mid-majors and east coast teams that don't fit geographically. I would hope that it would be a condition that the PAC replaces its commissioner with an outsider that can think outside the box. I like the incoming Big XII commish for that reason. I don't want to move to the PAC if its going to be the same 'ol, same 'ol trying to do the same as the BIG and SEC. It has to be different, embrace the moment and come up with something new. 

Some rumor your school may join the sec?

[BurntOrange&White 39794]

['stache 21778]

Just now, closetohumping said:

Some rumor your school may join the sec?

If the BIG adds UO, UW, Stan, and ND, that's 20.

If the ACC GOR can be broken I've seen a possible Clemson, FSU, Miami, and OKST to the SEC.

It makes a lot of sense, but I know SEC would push first for UNC and UVA over us and probably Miami.

I just want to stay with our Big 12 South friends and add Arky. Dream scenario in my book.

[BurntOrange&White 39794]

Just now, 'stache said:

If the BIG adds UO, UW, Stan, and ND, that's 20.

If the ACC GOR can be broken I've seen a possible Clemson, FSU, Miami, and OKST to the SEC.

It makes a lot of sense, but I know SEC would push first for UNC and UVA over us and probably Miami.

I just want to stay with our Big 12 South friends and add Arky. Dream scenario in my book.

Yeah you're stuck in the big 12 buddy.....

[Sandman 3403]

Just now, closetohumping said:

Some rumor your school may join the sec?

I heard that from a coworker and I just don't believe it. Why would the SEC go after OKST now if they didn't want them when ou and Texas left? What's the incentive? DOn't get me wrong, as a fan I hope they get an invite but I'm calling BS.

[SimonBolivar 10949]

2 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Big 12 should push hard as fuck for the Arizona Schools to bolt....seems like the easiest combo to pull right now.

Heard Arizona and Utah are most interested and ready to jump. We'll see how it goes 

[hawkfan 60]

 

['stache 21778]

1 minute ago, Sandman said:

I heard that from a coworker and I just don't believe it. Why would the SEC go after OKST now if they didn't want them when ou and Texas left? What's the incentive? DOn't get me wrong, as a fan I hope they get an invite but I'm calling BS.

OKST v. OU

OKST v. Tex

OKST v. Aggy

OKST v. Arky

OKST v. LSU

These would draw great ratings, better than any other remaining Big XII teams. 

That's the argument. It's a good one, but probably not good enough with today's absurdity. Purdue will make more than double OKST because of a relationship from 100 years ago. Stupid af.

[hawkfan 60]

6 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

Why not just merge the Big 12 + Pac 12 and be first to the race for 20 teams?

Bay Area delusion/snobbery?

 

Best guess would be that Stanford might be the one out of that group who actually has a shot at getting in the B1G?  Maybe the B1G is going to pass on Oregon/Washington. 

Many reports surfacing that the LA schools are butthurt that Oregon recruits so well in LA, so perhaps they are just saying they'd rather not allow them in.

[JFKFC 4878]

4 minutes ago, hawkfan said:

 

Can anyone get to that article? 

['stache 21778]

4 minutes ago, hawkfan said:

 

Best guess would be that Stanford might be the one out of that group who actually has a shot at getting in the B1G?  Maybe the B1G is going to pass on Oregon/Washington. 

Many reports surfacing that the LA schools are butthurt that Oregon recruits so well in LA, so perhaps they are just saying they'd rather not allow them in.

I could see the BIG adding Stanford and Cal (along with ND) for academic prestige and decent athletics from Stanford at least. Also gives nobody else access to California from the P5 market. Throw in KU since they're AAU for a pretty prestigious 20 team conference. 

I personally would rather have WSU and ORST over Cincy and BYU and maybe even Houston or UCF, but I'm sure the numbers say otherwise.

If Cal and Stanford leave, I'd rather see both the PAC and XII dissolve and reform into a 16 team conference. 

UW, WSU, UO, ORST, AU, ASU, CU, Utah, Tech, TCU, UH, OKST, KU, KSU, ISU, and throw in SDSU for a California presence and because fuck BYU and BU.

Edited July 5, 2022 by 'stache

[Horn80 6097]

14 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, USC.  Nebraska has fallen out.

Fixed it.

Edited July 5, 2022 by Horn80

[Royale with cheese 1462]

4 minutes ago, 'stache said:

OKST v. OU

OKST v. Tex

OKST v. Aggy

OKST v. Arky

OKST v. LSU

These would draw great ratings, better than any other remaining Big XII teams. 

That's the argument. It's a good one, but probably not good enough with today's absurdity. Purdue will make more than double OKST because of a relationship from 100 years ago. Stupid af.

Spot on. All one can say is, it's correct; it's just not right.

 

[Sir Ulrich 5187]

2 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I could see the BIG adding Stanford and Cal (along with ND) for academic prestige and decent athletics from Stanford at least. Also gives nobody else access to California from the P5 market. Throw in KU since they're AAU for a pretty prestigious 20 team conference. 

I personally would rather have WSU and ORST over Cincy and BYU and maybe even Houston or UCF, but I'm sure the numbers say otherwise.

If the BIG 10 wanted Stanford and Cal they would have gotten calls already. Stanford will have to go to the big 12 or go independent to stay out of the MWC consuming all of the Cali/PNW schools that are on the Pac 12 back burners

['stache 21778]

1 minute ago, Sir Ulrich said:

If the BIG 10 wanted Stanford and Cal they would have gotten calls already. Stanford will have to go to the big 12 or go independent to stay out of the MWC consuming all of the Cali/PNW schools that are on the Pac 12 back burners

They need Notre Dame first. If ND agrees to join, they'll want Stanford, and Stanford will want Cal, and Fox will like having California wrapped up. The ND domino has to drop first.

Edited July 5, 2022 by 'stache

[Nueces River Rat 5532]

1 minute ago, 'stache said:

I could see the BIG adding Stanford and Cal (along with ND) for academic prestige and decent athletics from Stanford at least. Also gives nobody else access to California from the P5 market. Throw in KU since they're AAU for a pretty prestigious 20 team conference. 

I personally would rather have WSU and ORST over Cincy and BYU and maybe even Houston or UCF, but I'm sure the numbers say otherwise.

It will also give USC/UCLA two opponents in their own time zone where the vast majority of the BIG reside in the Eastern time Zone.  Likewise it would possibly eliminate two trips east for each sport depending on how they set up scheudling.

[Domedriver 655]

6 minutes ago, hawkfan said:

We can still hate Notre Dame!  I do!🤘 it’s the Longhorn thing to do.  Know history, there is no other team that I want my Horns to beat the ever living shit out of then The Irish of fucking Notre Dame!  You should not be able to say, or type their name without the word fuck in the sentence!  Fuck ND!

 

[DFW Horn 6118]

Welcome back, hippies

 

['stache 21778]

1 minute ago, DFW Horn said:

Welcome back, hippies

 

I personally wouldn't care, at all. I'd like to have them back. Good location, decent media market. I get why they left the first time so I really don't have an anger towards them for the decision. All of us "left behinds" would have don the same. In general, they are so mediocre they're not really even worth the hate. I always liked playing them but they never really even crossed my mind any other time of the season. 

[DFW Horn 6118]

3 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I personally wouldn't care, at all. I'd like to have them back. Good location, decent media market. I get why they left the first time so I really don't have an anger towards them for the decision. All of us "left behinds" would have don the same. In general, they are so mediocre they're not really even worth the hate. I always liked playing them but they never really even crossed my mind any other time of the season. 

Coming back will be a blessing in disguise for them. CU was better recruiting TX than CA.

Big 18...just rolls off the tongue

[CastHorn 799]

 

['stache 21778]

lol

[DFW Horn 6118]

 

[closetohumping 17410]

15 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

Coming back will be a blessing in disguise for them. CU was better recruiting TX than CA.

Big 18...just rolls off the tongue

Big 1 8

[Sir Ulrich 5187]

In my opinion this is a race to 20 for the power 5 leagues with the Big 10 and SEC already at 14+2 on the way.

SEC- If they can get ND to say yes (highly unlikely) then adding Clemson, FSU, and Miami would be the best case scenario. When the Big 10 finally takes ND then adding those 3 and a back fill of the biggest remaining brand would still be a net positive. 

Big 10- Once ND joins they'll have 17 committed and could either add the two Virginias and BC/Syracuse/Pitt or take Stanford and Cal and a wild card. 

ACC- If they have enough members after getting poached by the Big 10 and SEC they could look to add WVU and make a run at the Kansas schools when the Big 12 adds half the Pac. The ACC will have to fight to stay alive but they're are enough decent G5 names they can add to stay in the 15ish member range

Big 12- If they add those Pac schools I would count WVU as the biggest flight risk to the ACC so lets say they are sitting on 17 schools. Adding SMU, Memphis, and a team like Boise would get them to 20 assuming the Kansas schools stay put. 

PAC 12/MWC- After the Big 10/12 run through the PAC it looks like there are 4 schools remaining without a home, Stanford, Cal, Oregon State, and Washington State. If the PAC 12 wants to stay alive then they will have to merge with the MWC and finally get to use the Pac 16 name.

[Francisco 2.0 32347]

4 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

 

From a football perspective, sure.

From a basketball/baseball/softball/whatever other sport, things will get murky fast. 

 

[CleverNickname 1296]

If PAC steals part of Big12 (if WA and OU are joined with little brother and stay), is there is a chance TCU and Baylor get screwed?

[TonyTexas 10486]

55 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I would hope that it would be a condition that the PAC replaces its commissioner with an outsider that can think outside the box.

They did that a year ago. 

[Gidnik 3251]

1 minute ago, CleverNickname said:

If PAC steals part of Big12 (if WA and OU are joined with little brother and stay), is there is a chance TCU and Baylor get screwed?

one can always hope

 

[oSuJeff97 3435]

49 minutes ago, Sandman said:

I heard that from a coworker and I just don't believe it. Why would the SEC go after OKST now if they didn't want them when ou and Texas left? What's the incentive? DOn't get me wrong, as a fan I hope they get an invite but I'm calling BS.

Because it’s a different value question now.

It doesn’t make sense for the SEC to add OSU as part of a plan to get to 16 or even 18 teams. But if, at the end of the day, you are trying to pick the most valuable programs of what’s left to get to 22 or 24 teams, then OSU makes a lot of sense.

[totallynotabuttpirate 5351]

It would be great if the SEC took Ok St as well. let's just super-conference this shit and put an end to the NCAA. 

[Saint Austin 745]

25 minutes ago, CastHorn said:

 

You also heard it there last.

['stache 21778]

12 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

They did that a year ago. 

He had a Las Vegas live sports and gambling background and didn't change anything, just continued trying to mimic the other big leagues. The new Big XII commissioner has a background in modern media, which is what all of this is about. He's a better choice to try something different.

[Gidnik 3251]

1 hour ago, mdmost said:

Interesting. Let's hope that happens. I think the Pac 12 is smart to try to beat the Big 12 to the punch on a new deal. And Fox or ESPN would be better served to get the deal over and done with, forcing the other to take the scraps. 

 

 

[closetohumping 17410]

35 minutes ago, Sir Ulrich said:

In my opinion this is a race to 20 for the power 5 leagues with the Big 10 and SEC already at 14+2 on the way.

SEC- If they can get ND to say yes (highly unlikely) then adding Clemson, FSU, and Miami would be the best case scenario. When the Big 10 finally takes ND then adding those 3 and a back fill of the biggest remaining brand would still be a net positive. 

Big 10- Once ND joins they'll have 17 committed and could either add the two Virginias and BC/Syracuse/Pitt or take Stanford and Cal and a wild card. 

ACC- If they have enough members after getting poached by the Big 10 and SEC they could look to add WVU and make a run at the Kansas schools when the Big 12 adds half the Pac. The ACC will have to fight to stay alive but they're are enough decent G5 names they can add to stay in the 15ish member range

Big 12- If they add those Pac schools I would count WVU as the biggest flight risk to the ACC so lets say they are sitting on 17 schools. Adding SMU, Memphis, and a team like Boise would get them to 20 assuming the Kansas schools stay put. 

PAC 12/MWC- After the Big 10/12 run through the PAC it looks like there are 4 schools remaining without a home, Stanford, Cal, Oregon State, and Washington State. If the PAC 12 wants to stay alive then they will have to merge with the MWC and finally get to use the Pac 16 name.

All with even playoff berths?  Won't work.

[Sir Ulrich 5187]

1 minute ago, closetohumping said:

All with even playoff berths?  Won't work.

That was off the table once USC/UCLA left. Legislatively guaranteed playoff spots wont be needed when there are 3 or 4 major conferences. Even if the stay at 4 the Big 10 and SEC will get 3 of those spots and 7 or more with a 12+ team playoff. 

[camel at sea 589]

If we assume FOX is the puppet master behind current events, then they probably go to the Big 12 and promise to make it worth their while to kill the PAC so that the B1G doesn't have to be the one to do it (the B1G won't want to technically deliver the killing blow.)  It makes more sense to kill the PAC than the Big 12 at this point because there's a lot more dead weight in the PAC.

We end up with four "power conferences."  FOX has the B1G + the lesser Big 12.  Disney has the SEC plus the lesser ACC.

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

12 team playoffs:

4 conference champ spots and leave the remaining 8 at large.  They will probably all come from the Big 10 and SEC, and then everyone gets what they want:  the smaller leagues have guaranteed access, but the at large set up favors the brands so in most years there will be 10 Big 10 and SEC teams and 2 from the other, if that's what bears out.

I think that would be good enough for the SEC and Big 10, especially with their bigger TV contracts.  If it's just about spiting and harming the remaining schools, they can always just do their own playoff too.

[closetohumping 17410]

Just now, Al_4_ISU said:

12 team playoffs:

4 conference champ spots and leave the remaining 8 at large.  They will probably all come from the Big 10 and SEC, and then everyone gets what they want:  the smaller leagues have guaranteed access, but the at large set up favors the brands so in most years there will be 10 Big 10 and SEC teams and 2 from the other, if that's what bears out.

I think that would be good enough for the SEC and Big 10, especially with their bigger TV contracts.  If it's just about spiting and harming the remaining schools, they can always just do their own playoff too.

I'm not sure those are the words I would use but everyone soured on a 12 team playoff the moment Texas and ou joined the SEC.  Spiteful?  What the big 12 is doing to Texas and ou right now can be viewed as spiteful.  Well within their rights, but looks petty to me.

[Skipper 6107]

6 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

 It makes more sense to kill the PAC than the Big 12 at this point because there's a lot more dead weight in the PAC.

 

Is there though?  Would love to see a valuation ranking from a TV exec as you know those exists.   You have dead weight in Wazzu/Oregon St., sure, but where do you slot Kansas St., Iowa St., UH, Cincy, etc.  I would think more value in all the other remaining PAC schools.

Edited July 5, 2022 by Skipper