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Realignment talk not going away


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6 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Exactly.

Having been in their shoes many times, if we had an opportunity in the past to get out for a more stable and lucrative deal we would.  The 4 corner schools are in a similar position with UO and UW that the Irate 8 were with Texas and OU.  We knew you guys viewed us as more or less pond scum and wanted out to play as many blue bloods as possible.  But we all felt our best option was to stay because no one was offering a lifeline.

The 4 corners have that lifeline, and they will likely make more money on the other side.  It's a no brainer for them.  Oregon and Washington want out.  Unlike Texas and Oklahoma, they aren't going to command major $ while they wait for the Big 10 invite that probably isn't coming.

OU and UW are trying to have their cake and eat it too. The problem with the Texas and OU comparison was, that regardless of what conference they were recruited to UT/OU instantly provided a major increase in value. Where do those two provide enough value to increase the new conference tv deal to 1, make the more palatable for those two schools, and still make more sense to make the move to instead of staying in a west-coast centric conference?

The only move that makes any real sense to OU and UW is the B10 and frankly, the B10 don't care about those two until ND comes to a real decision (which might even be 10 years from now after the latest NBC rumored deal expires). The B10 is running neck and neck with the SEC from a revenue standpoint and they are more than willing to wait on ND, regardless of what temper tantrums OU and UW have.

UW and OU are probably now revenue neutral for a B10, based on the expectations of a revised deal after the USC and UCLA add, and are more there to provide regional blanketing and somewhat closer travel partners for the west coast division. That is their real value for them to the Big 10. The SEC is a flat no. The ACC is possible but does OU and UW provide enough revenue to jump up the ACC tv deal to be close to the top 2 to be acceptable for OU and UW to offset the travel and loss of regional rivalries? The Big12 provides a better future payout than the new Pac12 but with more travel and but would require having to admit they don't have the power that USC,UCLA, UT, and OU have.

So those two are trying to stall to wait on the B10 by building their own little kingdom of misfit toys on the west coast. The problem is the 4 corners schools see the writing on the wall and know 1, regardless of if OU and UW are in the B12 or the Pac12 if the B10 call they are going to leave. This is at the cost of most likely 2 of the 4 corners school because some schools have to get left out of those 4 when the B12 expands west to make the numbers work (unless somehow the new adds or WVU get jettisoned) and 2, the payout is most likely going to be lower than the B12 with no long term stability. And with an added bonus, if the 4 corners don't act now the possibility of the B12 expanding without them still exist and then if UW and OU leave they are stuck backfilling from the MWC to further push them behind the relevancy curve.

 

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3 minutes ago, Uncle Nate said:

Interesting development...no mention of CU or ASU.  Haven't seen UDub mentioned w/o Oregon until now:

 

 

 

If UW splits with OU and applies without them this is a power play by UW knowing that OU has no real choice left but to apply as well. Essentially OU and CU would be on the clock and its either OU and the leftovers backfilling with the MWC and potentially AAC misfits into the Pac12 or OU and UW bailing and the death of the Pac12 and reinvigoration of the WAC. I would be very surprised of Cal and Stanford stayed around without OU and UW and not really sure how those 2 will feel about losing these other the flagships and being replaced by the likes of SDSU.

 

I would have never thought that UW would be the one to force OU into something and would make me that much more impressed with their approach. That being said, they are both still going to jump to the B10 if offered later, and so buyer beware.

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11 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

OU and UW are trying to have their cake and eat it too. The problem with the Texas and OU comparison was, that regardless of what conference they were recruited to UT/OU instantly provided a major increase in value. Where do those two provide enough value to increase the new conference tv deal to 1, make the more palatable for those two schools, and still make more sense to make the move to instead of staying in a west-coast centric conference?

The only move that makes any real sense to OU and UW is the B10 and frankly, the B10 don't care about those two until ND comes to a real decision (which might even be 10 years from now after the latest NBC rumored deal expires). The B10 is running neck and neck with the SEC from a revenue standpoint and they are more than willing to wait on ND, regardless of what temper tantrums OU and UW have.

UW and OU are probably now revenue neutral for a B10, based on the expectations of a revised deal after the USC and UCLA add, and are more there to provide regional blanketing and somewhat closer travel partners for the west coast division. That is their real value for them to the Big 10. The SEC is a flat no. The ACC is possible but does OU and UW provide enough revenue to jump up the ACC tv deal to be close to the top 2 to be acceptable for OU and UW to offset the travel and loss of regional rivalries? The Big12 provides a better future payout than the new Pac12 but with more travel and but would require having to admit they don't have the power that USC,UCLA, UT, and OU have.

So those two are trying to stall to wait on the B10 by building their own little kingdom of misfit toys on the west coast. The problem is the 4 corners schools see the writing on the wall and know 1, regardless of if OU and UW are in the B12 or the Pac12 if the B10 call they are going to leave. This is at the cost of most likely 2 of the 4 corners school because some schools have to get left out of those 4 when the B12 expands west to make the numbers work (unless somehow the new adds or WVU get jettisoned) and 2, the payout is most likely going to be lower than the B12 with no long term stability. And with an added bonus, if the 4 corners don't act now the possibility of the B12 expanding without them still exist and then if UW and OU leave they are stuck backfilling from the MWC to further push them behind the relevancy curve.

 

Agree completely.  UO/UW aren't on the level of OU/UT, but they definitely see themselves in that realm, and somewhat serve that role in the new Pac 12.

The difference is the UT and OU always have options.  Oregon and Washington probably do, but they're praying for a Big 10 invite that's almost guaranteed not to come.

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3 minutes ago, sportsbay said:

Dude, it was OU beating the drum to go to the B10.  We had been holding the SWC and B12 together for decades.

I don' think the B1G would take ou as a stand alone and if memory serves me right, the PAC didn't either.  Remember Boren got really loud and said "we ain't nobody's wallflower, we can do our own thing?"

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1 minute ago, sportsbay said:

Dude, it was OU beating the drum to go to the B10.  We had been holding the SWC and B12 together for decades.

It was pretty obvious both fanbases wanted more blue blood games, which now you have. 

A stabilized clear #3 Big 12 w/out OU and UT will give all of the 10 current Big 12 schools what they probably want the most.  We're on the verge of a real win/win which will probably release you guys sooner.

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49 minutes ago, Steelers Roll Left said:

Yeah, the real question is whether the conference they are petitioning wants to add them now or play wait and see on other options (such as NoCal & The Pacific NW). Everyone’s playing chess and the wrong move could lead to your own checkmate so move well

If I'm the Big 12, I would want the adjacent universities first.  Last thing I would want would be the 12 + 4 snobby west coast schools.

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Just now, DFW Horn said:

I don't know if MHver has any real sources, but he's good at throwing common sense shit up against the wall. PAC would be better off inviting UNLV than Fresno.

 

The SDSU/Fresno adds might be what is pushing the rumored UW application. They know that Cal and Stanford may take SDSU with a few grumbles but Fresno with be like the Clampetts moving to Beverly Hills to the academic elite leftovers in the Pac12. The writing is on the wall if that is the backfill options. This also means that all the B12 schools said "no thanks"...

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Just now, Laxtonto said:

The SDSU/Fresno adds might be what is pushing the rumored UW application. They know that Cal and Stanford may take SDSU with a few grumbles but Fresno with be like the Clampetts moving to Beverly Hills to the academic elite leftovers in the Pac12. The writing is on the wall if that is the backfill options. This also means that all the B12 schools said "no thanks"...

Exactly.  IF the Pac 12 is actually pursuing those schools, that's a guarantee that the Big 12 schools were uninterested.

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1 hour ago, Laxtonto said:

If I was those 4 and my options were to either wait on the Pac12 tv deal, in which UW and OU are dictating what is happening, or make an early move to protect myself, I do the latter.

 

There are no friends in conference realignment. You are beholden only to be longterm good of your institution.

For sure.  I think UO and UW want out just as bad, but they don't want the Big 12, obviously...So they will try to screw the 4 corner schools with big time unequal revenue sharing in case the BIG or ACC falls through for them.  I think UO and UW are destined for the ACC along with Stanford and someone else, maybe someone else from the PAC.

Edited by Azbadlands
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7 minutes ago, Azbadlands said:

For sure.  I think UO and UW want out just as bad, but they don't want the Big 12, obviously...So they will try to screw the 4 corner schools with big time unequal revenue sharing in case the BIG or ACC falls through for them.  I think UO and UW are destined for the ACC along with Stanford and someone else from the PAC..

UW in same conference as Miami and Clemson?  This has jumped the shark

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58 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

If UW splits with OU and applies without them this is a power play by UW knowing that OU has no real choice left but to apply as well. Essentially OU and CU would be on the clock and its either OU and the leftovers backfilling with the MWC and potentially AAC misfits into the Pac12 or OU and UW bailing and the death of the Pac12 and reinvigoration of the WAC. I would be very surprised of Cal and Stanford stayed around without OU and UW and not really sure how those 2 will feel about losing these other the flagships and being replaced by the likes of SDSU.

 

I would have never thought that UW would be the one to force OU into something and would make me that much more impressed with their approach. That being said, they are both still going to jump to the B10 if offered later, and so buyer beware.

That guy is a sports guy out of Flagstaff it seems, which is a new twist.   Seems most of this noise is happening out of Arizona.    If this occurred, Oregon and Colorado would apply within minutes.     The big question left is what to do with ASU and the Phoenix DMA and Cal/Stanford with the SF/O/SJ DMA.    OSU/WSU are in the MWC at this point.

Or is none of it real and Arizona is the only one pissed and trying to sink the ship?

Edited by Hurtlocker
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37 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Exactly.  IF the Pac 12 is actually pursuing those schools, that's a guarantee that the Big 12 schools were uninterested.

Eh, San Diego State is a great add and has been for awhile. Academics are improving, and they are the only show in a great area. No comment on Fresno, but at least they provide away games in Cali. I'd add SDSU and either UNLV or UNM

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10 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

shark-832x447.jpg

 

I stand corrected.  Both Miami and Seattle have sharks. 

9 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

That guy is a sports guy out of Flagstaff it seems, which is a new twist.   Seems most of this noise is happening out of Arizona.    If this occurred, Oregon and Colorado would apply within minutes.     The big question left is what to do with ASU and the Phoenix DMA and Cal/Stanford with the SF/O/SJ DMA.    OSU/WSU are in the MWC at this point.

Or is none of it real and Arizona is the only one pissed and trying to sink the ship?

I would "think" that ASU and AU would be aligned. 

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Are Pac-12 schools ASU, Arizona a package deal in college conference realignment?

Quote

When he was asked about Arizona and ASU being tied together in the same conference, Scheer said: "I haven't been able to get a clear answer about that. Every time I asked, it's kind of, 'We're gonna do what's best for ourselves.' My gut tells me that they are tied. I would be really surprised if Arizona moves without ASU or vice versa. It feels like Arizona is kind of driving the train a little bit by being a little more aggressive than ASU, but I would be really surprised that there's a scenario where they don't move together. You got to think, also, once a couple of these schools move in the Pac-12, let's say it's just Arizona and Colorado that decide to move, the other schools have to follow. They'll have no choice. And even if ASU wants to look around or kind of see the landscape or wait a bit, they really won't have that option. And so to me, these schools are pretty tied together. I'd be surprised if they broke up."

Both schools fall under the purview of the Arizona Board or Regents, the governing body of Arizona's public university system, along with Northern Arizona University.

Both schools have traditionally played in the same conference throughout the years, with heated rivalries developing in many sports.

Big 12 speculation has surrounded both schools, as has talk that they could both remain in the Pac-12.

But could either ASU or Arizona end up joining a different conference from the other, such as the Big Ten, if the situation presented itself?

It wouldn't be the first time traditional rivals have been in different conferences, should ASU and Arizona somehow go separate ways, as unlikely as that may be.

One example close to Arizona?

Utah is currently in the Pac-12 and in-state rival BYU is in the West Coast Conference (and is independent in football), but is in the process of transitioning to the Big 12.

Utah is a public university, however. BYU is a private university.

The teams still meet often in athletic events in non-conference games.

Interestingly, Utah has often been linked to the Big 12 to potentially join BYU there, along with Colorado, Arizona and Arizona State.

Scheer said things could get interesting for the Arizona schools in conference realignment.

"It's tough to say. I don't think so," he told 365 Sports about Arizona moving without ASU. " I really don't, because football kind of rules the decision-making process, and the reality is Arizona football hasn't been attractive in quite a while. And, it's not like ASU football is super attractive, but it's kind of the deal where, similar to the Big Ten wanting USC and UCLA, you want those together to get the whole L.A. market. If you're the big 12 you want those Arizona schools together, and that's why I think it'd be difficult for Arizona to move. Now, if ASU puts its foot down and says, 'We're not going anywhere,' it could get really interesting. I feel confident in saying that if it was totally up to UofA, and what they want, to do with no outside forces, it would be the Big 12 all the way."

Where will the Arizona schools end up in conference realignment, if they leave the Pac-12?

Will they go together?

The speculation surrounding ASU, Arizona and the future of the Pac-12 Conference is bound to continue to swirl in the days ahead.

From the Arizona Republic just now

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17 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

That guy is a sports guy out of Flagstaff it seems, which is a new twist.   Seems most of this noise is happening out of Arizona.    If this occurred, Oregon and Colorado would apply within minutes.     The big question left is what to do with ASU and the Phoenix DMA and Cal/Stanford with the SF/O/SJ DMA.    OSU/WSU are in the MWC at this point.

Or is none of it real and Arizona is the only one pissed and trying to sink the ship?

I wouldn't take UofA over ASU..But, if UW is actually splitting with UO and joining the BIG 12 to force UO's hand, then I guess the Big 12 will probably end up with all 6 schools.  The 4 corners plus UO and UW?

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20 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

That guy is a sports guy out of Flagstaff it seems, which is a new twist.   Seems most of this noise is happening out of Arizona.    If this occurred, Oregon and Colorado would apply within minutes.     The big question left is what to do with ASU and the Phoenix DMA and Cal/Stanford with the SF/O/SJ DMA.    OSU/WSU are in the MWC at this point.

Or is none of it real and Arizona is the only one pissed and trying to sink the ship?

Lots of noise out of Colorado, too. 

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3 minutes ago, Azbadlands said:

I wouldn't take UofA over ASU..But, if UW is actually splitting with UO and joining the BIG 12 to force UO's hand, then I guess the Big 12 will probably end up with all 6 schools.  The 4 corners plus UO and UW?

I am still sitting here wondering how the Big 12 schedules more than 16 and it still leads me down the idea of is there a scenario where the eastern geographic outliers move on to a better fit?

Or are we destined to see a 16 team B10 and SEC while the ACC and B12 go maybe 18 and essentially have the Power 4 be 68 schools plus the independents…

If the independents get a cut of the CFP that makes it more feasible to be a big name independent than a G6 then we now have a mechanism to fix the initial issue of potential  geographic conference outliers (ie Cal and WSU) that provide marginal value but still a household name.

Those schools that don’t make the B12 or ACC can still have a better option than fully dropping down to G6 to save face while the other schools leaving have the political cover to say they made sure there was a lifeline when we consolidated the P5 to the P4.

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The PAC basically has to at least add SDSU to get a flag back in southern California.  But making that choice probably makes it more likely that UW and Oregon become open to leave for the Big 12.  The Ducks and Huskies might plug their nose over the two G5 additions if they can get unequal revenue distribution, but then that financial concession signals the Four Corners that it's time to leave.

There aren't many good moves left on the board for the PAC.  

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I hate this piecemeal approach so goddamned much. If we had known that westward expansion would be available a year later, we could have held off on adding four mid-majors, including 3 to the east. If we were still at 8, this would be so much simpler.

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1 minute ago, 'stache said:

I hate this piecemeal approach so goddamned much. If we had known that westward expansion would be available a year later, we could have held off on adding four mid-majors, including 3 to the east. If we were still at 8, this would be so much simpler.

Yes I know but everyone was put into a position of acting now or get left out.  Plus y’all had the alliance deal

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I don't think anything will happen any time soon. Twitter gets restless and has to put shit out there. The networks need to be consulted and do their voodoo math before anyone decides a move is worthwhile. I know the PAC already started that process but the XII is surely going through it as well, though probably behind closed doors.

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The question you have to ask for every school, regardless of conference is- where do they get recruits?

In this nation, there are four major recruiting reservoirs: the southeast, Texas, Southern California and the Ohio Valley. Yes, the mid-Atlantic has players, as does Northern California. Yes, Samoa is a wonderful resource. The fact remains- the talent is wide and deep in four locations. 
 

The PAC schools all recruited Southern California. Now, it’s closed off. That BSU and Fresno rumor makes no sense at all. 

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17 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I hate this piecemeal approach so goddamned much. If we had known that westward expansion would be available a year later, we could have held off on adding four mid-majors, including 3 to the east. If we were still at 8, this would be so much simpler.

Bowlsby's parting gift.

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3 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I don't think anything will happen any time soon. Twitter gets restless and has to put shit out there. The networks need to be consulted and do their voodoo math before anyone decides a move is worthwhile. I know the PAC already started that process but the XII is surely going through it as well, though probably behind closed doors.

Yeah, here's my guess.

  • Pac 12 would like to stay together and just say fuck it.
  • Oregon and Washington want more money, so they want everyone else to take a bath to pay them
  • Arizona and Colorado say "fuck that" so they start dropping juice all over twitter to back up the plan

 

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I hate this piecemeal approach so goddamned much. If we had known that westward expansion would be available a year later, we could have held off on adding four mid-majors, including 3 to the east. If we were still at 8, this would be so much simpler.

Yeah I wish there were a real centralized command center that could just blow all conferences up and reorganize 4 sixteen team conferences from scratch.
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9 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

 

Of course... it's not like the PAC side of that situation will know that Arizona asks the Big 12 for an invite.  And it's not like Arizona would say so until they've sent their paperwork.  

Wilner knows that, though, but has a PAC PR job to do, apparently.  

Edited by camel at sea
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3 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

Yeah, here's my guess.

  • Pac 12 would like to stay together and just say fuck it.
  • Oregon and Washington want more money, so they want everyone else to take a bath to pay them
  • Arizona and Colorado say "fuck that" so they start dropping juice all over twitter to back up the plan

 

The interesting thing in this, though, is the Big 12's very public openness to raiding the PAC.  The McMurphy "Four Corners" leak happened almost immediately after SC and UCLA announced.  Baylor's AD said yesterday (paraphrasing) "you act or  you get acted upon."  And that NBC/Notre Dame thing had interesting timing, too.  

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2 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

The interesting thing in this, though, is the Big 12's very public openness to raiding the PAC.  The McMurphy "Four Corners" leak happened almost immediately after SC and UCLA announced.  Baylor's AD said yesterday (paraphrasing) "you act or  you get acted upon."  And that NBC/Notre Dame thing had interesting timing, too.  

  1. AZ/Colorado want out
  2. Big 12 says bring Oregon/Washington
  3. Oregon/Washington say, "We Big Ten Bitches!"
  4. Big Ten Says "no you're not"
  5. Utah says, "We're totally Big Ten, right?   Guys?  Right?!"
  6. Oregon/Washington tell the Pac they want more money
  7. See #1
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10 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:


Yeah I wish there were a real centralized command center that could just blow all conferences up and reorganize 4 sixteen team conferences from scratch.


It will, but that’s the final move. Got to have as many teams as you can under fox/espn to make said blowup less actionable by those left out. 
 

This is the ugly duckling part, before growing into a good looking one. 

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3 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:
  1. AZ/Colorado want out
  2. Big 12 says bring Oregon/Washington
  3. Oregon/Washington say, "We Big Ten Bitches!"
  4. Big Ten Says "no you're not"
  5. Utah says, "We're totally Big Ten, right?   Guys?  Right?!"
  6. Oregon/Washington tell the Pac they want more money
  7. See #1

The Big 12 + just the Four Corners schools would be a fun, very competitive league.  If Oregon/UDub join, too, great, but you'd almost rather not have schools in the boat that don't want to be there.        

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As far as UofA and ASU are concerned, if one leaves the other will follow, then Utah and CU follow. Cal &Tree will wail and gnash teeth, Oregon and Udub will tuck their tails and follow to big12. They're not not getting that Big invite

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2 hours ago, Uncle Nate said:

Interesting development...no mention of CU or ASU.  Haven't seen UDub mentioned w/o Oregon until now:

 

 

Gotta save the 16th spot for Notre Dame.  This is why that SidelinesShowBob129613623 report is wrong.

 

Quote

 

Naw, Pepperdine will save the Pac.

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27 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:
  1. AZ/Colorado want out
  2. Big 12 says bring Oregon/Washington
  3. Oregon/Washington say, "We Big Ten Bitches!"
  4. Big Ten Says "no you're not"
  5. Utah says, "We're totally Big Ten, right?   Guys?  Right?!"
  6. Oregon/Washington tell the Pac they want more money
  7. See #1

AZ and Utah know that they could end up like ORSU and WSU, easily left out by the B12 should the Pac breakup.  ASU is in a market 5 times the size of Tucson and BYU is already in the B12, so their best chance of getting an invite is to act now and be the first dominoes to fall.

That said, message boarders should Google "Inertia".  Any $$$ difference between future Pac and future B12 is likely not significant enough to warrant the upheaval of a conference jump.  Probably other factors would have to swing the decision.

 

10 minutes ago, Uncle Nate said:

Tennis will lead the way. 

Along with former Pepperdine Law dean Ken Starr.

Edited by clapclapclap
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11 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

That said, message boarders should Google "Inertia".  Any $$$ difference between future Pac and future B12 is likely not significant enough to warrant the upheaval of a conference jump.  Probably other factors would have to swing the decision.

 

Yeah I don't think we're seeing a seismic difference here.   But if we looked through the numbers I'd wager WSU and OSU are the lowest rated properties of the combined Big 12/Pac12.  If you plucked off the top six you'd think you'd consolidate some value in the same way adding two massive brands to the SEC does.   Not the the same extent, but at least cutting out a bit more of the low end.  Culling the herd if you will.

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1 minute ago, bullet said:

The Big 10 ADs didn't know about the Penn St. addition until after the papers had been signed.  Presidents make these decisions.  So its possible the ASU AD is in the dark on how serious it is.

This. What he didn’t say is how many conversations he’s had with his president. 

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