Realignment talk not going away

[Hurtlocker 2212]

Speaking of sportswriters, a little extra from Denver:

It’s been 10 years since CU decided to leave behind the Big 12 in favor of the Pac-12. This series examines what has happened since, as the Pac-12 has struggled to maintain national relevance, the Buffs football program has floundered and the school has watched its former Big 12 peers pass it by in terms of revenue and resources.

Part I: Where is CU 10 years later?

Part II: How lagging Pac-12 revenue affects CU

Part III: Recruiting and the California gold rush

Part IV: Culture and rivals in the Pac-12

Part V: What the future holds for CU

TL:DR - We totally made the right decision, but, like nothing worked out well.   Who knew?!

From Oregon, who seems to hate Scott with a passion reserved for few things:

Canzano: Pac-12 Networks facing questions and a cloudy path

Quote

By John Canzano | The Oregonian/OregonLive

I sifted through the old transcripts on Friday morning just to make sure I got it right. Late in the 2018 Pac-12 football season, commissioner Larry Scott met with media in front of the conference championship game at Levi’s Stadium.

A couple of hours later Washington and Utah would play for the title. But the commissioner was on defense that day, explaining away the series I’d written about the conference’s lavish offices, his bloated $5.3 million paycheck, the downtown-San Francisco office, and the chartered planes he enjoys.

Scott, who draws a double salary for overseeing the conference and the network, was being pressed for answers by the room. He was in full spin mode as he pointed out that the Pac-12 wasn’t just a conference.

He said, “we’re actually a media company as well.”

I’ve been thinking a lot about that line lately. Because at the time Scott had 170 employees on the payroll of the Pac-12 Network. He’s since laid off or furloughed the vast majority of them. If the Pac-12 is still a media company, it’s a hollow shell of an operation. One that isn’t currently scheduled to carry any of the conference football games this season.

The first six weeks of the season will be televised by a combination of ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, Fox and FS1. Fox will televise the Dec. 18 title game. A conference source told me that the Pac-12 hasn’t determined which networks might carry the rest of the Dec 18-19 weekend games.

It’s likely that ABC, ESPN and FS1 take at least three of them. Maybe a fourth. That would leave the Pac-12 Network with a game or two, maybe, if it still wants to be in the football-broadcast business.

We ought to back up right about here for context. Because when the Pac-12 launched the network leadership really didn’t know what it was doing. That’s become evident as I’ve talked with people involved in the launch.

One high-ranking conference official told me: "No media company wanted to partner with the Pac-12. ESPN declined. FOX, CBS, even the Discovery Channel declined. Nobody knows this.

“We weren’t wanted.”

The only option the Pac-12 had was to launch a network itself. It’s since been re-cast as some forward-thinking, ambitious endeavor led by Scott. Truth is, the Pac-12 misread the market then tried to shift the narrative. It helps explain why it ultimately failed in so many glaring ways, including gobbling up 170,000 square feet of expensive downtown-San Francisco real estate for the studios.

“I don’t think anyone who was sitting in the room at the table at the various meetings, including the presidents and consultants knew what they were doing," said the source. “Nobody had launched a network and knew what it would take.”

The Pac-12 Network faked it from the start. Some of that was wild fun for those involved. The staffers worked crazy hours, and were passionate and innovative. They had no control over the botched distribution plans, or the swollen budget, or the fact that Scott inexplicably drew part of his salary from the network budget while contributing very little in the way of leadership.

The staffers cared deeply about the product. They worked hard. They left shops such as ESPN to be part of something ambitious and nimble. That it’s now ultimately left in shambles has to be heartbreaking for the producers, on-air staff, engineers and support staff who were there from the beginning.

That “media company” has been gutted. Months ago the conference tried to sell equity in its media rights. It wanted $500 million for a 10 percent stake. There were no takers. Now, the Pac-12 has laid off or furloughed the staff amid a pandemic. Worse yet, it doesn’t appear to have a plan.

Insiders tell me the Pac-12 Network hasn’t communicated with network employees sitting in limbo. Keep in mind, the furloughed staff aren’t drawing a salary while living in the Bay Area because the conference inexplicably planted the network there. There’s understandable angst, amplified recently when it was reported that Scott accelerated his own scheduled bonus and paid himself prior to the downsizing.

What exactly is the Pac-12 Network right now?

That’s become a question to ask. Because some believe there’s no coming back. But the conference is under contractual obligation to carry men’s and women’s basketball games on the network. It feels like the Pac-12 will have to bring some of the crew back at some point and try to produce some form of bare-bones broadcast. Maybe in conjunction with that Dec. 18-19 final weekend of college football? But what about the morning and evening football wrap-up shows?

Andrew Walker, a spokesperson for the conference, told me this week, “During the course of the season, Pac-12 Networks will be producing football content that will be distributed across the full breadth of Pac-12 Networks media platforms.”

No producers. No social media team. No writers left. Not currently anyway.

If a Saturday night wrap-up show is in the plans, that hasn’t yet been communicated to staff. If that “shoulder programming” happens, it might feature studio hosts Yogi Roth and Ashley Adamson. They remain on staff and both are widely regarded as talented. Too gifted, for sure, to be left hosting the conference’s webinars.

If the Pac-12 does produce some kind of wrap show it will air during the regular season without a football game as a lead in. Wrap your mind around that. After millions spent on a lease, equipment, consultants, talent, producers, studio sets, marketing and management salaries, the Pac-12 has almost nothing to show for it.

“We’re actually a media company as well,” Scott said that day in late 2018.

He caught heck for it. Deserved it, too. Because down deep, the commissioner had to know the whole thing was teetering. It was a money pit with disappointing distribution. The conference was also publicly bleeding money and about to launch that private-equity Hail Mary pass that fell incomplete.

Enter 9 a.m. kickoffs on Fox. Forever known now as, “Bloody Larrys.” ASU and USC will kick off on Nov. 7 at breakfast in an attempt to get some revenue and exposure that we all know could have more easily been won by simply investing in a great football conference and letting the world see it. The Pac-12 Networks were supposed to help do that, remember?

Scott is still out there defending the “media company” narrative. There’s virtually nothing left of the network. It has no games to air, few employees and a dim future.

The Pac-12 presidents and chancellors need to find a graceful exit from this model. It’s too costly and messy. The bulk of the operation needs to be outsourced. The conference media rights are up in 2024. The Pac-12 needs a partner or two that can absorb what’s left of the network and reconstruct it with improved and existing distribution. Basically, it needs someone who knows what it’s doing.

Tl:DR   "One high-ranking conference official told me: "No media company wanted to partner with the Pac-12. ESPN declined. FOX, CBS, even the Discovery Channel declined. Nobody knows this.

“We weren’t wanted.”"

[DFW Horn 6123]

On 10/17/2020 at 5:46 PM, Cornfusion said:

You might want to check out a few of the threads on Huskerboard.  They have one going on there about taking Texas and OU into the Big Ten.  It doesn't sound like many would be in favor.

fuck corn aggy and the Rust Belt

[DFW Horn 6123]

On 12/3/2020 at 12:59 PM, utee94 said:

Sure, but that mindset was there among Colorado fans and boosters well before the B12 was formed.  They'd been California-dreaming for years.  So when the opportunity presented itself, they took it.

Anyway, I DGAF about Colorado or Missouri.  After we got our revenge on Colorado in the 2005 B12 CCG, I no longer had any use for them.  And I honestly never even thought about Mizzou, at all.  They were a non-entity.  Cue the Don Draper "I don't think about you at all" GIF.

 

Fuck CO and Mizzery. They're not missed. I'd rather play SMU and Houston

[ButtFumble 5172]

On 12/3/2020 at 12:44 PM, Al_4_ISU said:

I just think it's really interesting that Michigan doesn't blame the Big 10.  USC doesn't blame the Pac 12.  Florida State doesn't blame the ACC.  Tennessee doesn't blame the SEC.

But OU and Texas sure love to blame the Big 12 when things don't work (and it's been working pretty fucking well for OU).  Just like the schools who left did.  It is a unique mindset that took root in between the Mississippi and the Rockies and nowhere else.  There's this irrational "I'm better than the rest of you" mindset that was present in the 4 schools who left, and shows itself some in the Texas and OU fanbase.  It's fucking odd, and specific to this league.

I realize that the PAC 12 and now the Big 10 (stupidly) play 9 conference games also

but with the PAC 12 there have been coaches that correctly point out that 9 conference games hurts them as a conference because no matter what you are guarantying your conference 5 additional losses instead of availing your conference of the opportunity to get 5 additional wins with no additional losses

those 5 extra guaranteed losses to the conference every year hurts the lower teams and helps them miss a bowl game and look that much more shitty

it also has been proven with maths and shit that it hurts the better teams as well because with 9 conference games a larger % of your schedule strength comes from other conference members and with more loses that hurts your overall strength of schedule more and more

 

with the Big 10 there was immediate regret that the 9 conference games schedule hurt them the very first year it was in place and tOSU did not make the playoffs

the difference with the Big 10 (and really the ACC for that matter) is the Big 10 has a shit load of teams like Illinois, Northwestern, Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue, Minnesota, Indiana and others that are just glad to be there and collect a check and even Iowa, Wisconsin,  Penn State and Michigan State are just glad to "get a mention" in the playoff talk until their inevitable 2nd loss comes to some shit team they should have beaten and then probably a third loss and a bowl game loss to end the season barely ranked or just outside the top 25

Kirky F has made one hell of a living on shit like that

what magnifies it in the Big 12 is the fact that every team plays every team every fucking year so you are just tired of each other and if you are Texas and OU you are a bit tired of being "the target" for everyone every year

I am not saying that anyone should feel sorry for Texas or OU, but really then Big 12 especially in the past 4 or 5 seasons was all geared up to play the same offenses and play the same defenses to stop those offenses and it leads to difficulties recruiting especially with so many Big 12 teams trying to dip into Texas to recruit to that and it leads to difficulties matching up in OOC games against top teams from other conferences

 

part of the success of ISU is moving away from that shit on offense, but I probably do not need to tell you that ISU still needs that killer mentality so they do not shit a game away to a D1-AA team or a G5 team especially in an otherwise good season or worse yet they drop a game to a Iowa team that they should have stomped a mud hole in the ass of

DeLoss talks about the "foot print" and the issues with the SWC which were 100% true, but people ignore that the current Big 12 really suffers from the same issues when you look at the 9 game conference schedule with everyone playing everybody (that has failed as a selling point from day one for the playoffs AND for recruits)

but the reality is going out and adding some shit of the week like UH or even a program like Cincy is simply not the answer....that is not going to move the needle for fans or for the TV dollars or for ant playoff committee  especially long term....it just simply isn't and the only ones that think it will are the idiot fans of those programs and they ar eof course the last ones to consult on the issue 

the way to "expand the footprint" of the Big 12 I have said time and again is to play 7 conference games and 5 OOC games

that moves the mathematics of possibly wins without a GUARANTEED loss massively in favor of the Big 12 and it moves the math of the CCG better in line with other conferences

it also frees teams in the Big 12 to schedule to better meet their needs be it to make the playoffs or to get wins and make a bowl game or anything in between

I will use ISU as an example

recently I think it was clear that ISU needed to schedule to be concerned about just getting a win and they really had little business being concerned with scheduling to make the playoffs

I think that is just basic facts

so for ISU they "expand the foot print" of the Big 12 and their recruiting by doing shit like 4 or 5 years ago when NIU was good (or was that 7 or 8 years ago) well ISU should have been able to make a move to get NIU on the schedule and you can use that to hopefully pry a recruit or two away from the greater Chicago area.....the facts are one of two things will happen either that NIU team will have fallen off by the time the game comes even if a couple of years away and ISU can still play for a win while saying "hey we scheduled them when they were good" or NIU might still be good and it is a good test for an ISU team trying to build up

same with Indiana RIGHT NOW or Northwestern RIGHT NOW......you schedule them when they are "good" and either hope they stay good or hope you get the win no matter if they are good or bad, BUT YOU SELL THE RECRUITING along the way to players from those areas and hope you pop a couple of them a year for a few years

that is the Big 12 taking talent out of "another conferences" area which helps the Big 12 and makes it a little harder on others and that lessens the competition for recruits in the traditional Big 12 areas

of course if you are getting the wins you keep selling that and trying to schedule teams in and around that area

 

for Texas and OU getting out of playing so many Texas teams and free to schedule more nationally helps them recruit nationally.....which helps them and again lessens the demands for recruits out of the traditional Big 12 recruiting area (especially Texas)

 

plus when you play Big 12 vs Big 12 well unless it is really a top match up (something somewhat rare lately) you draw from a larger amount of viewers

ISU vs Iowa gets causal fans of the Big 12 and Big 10 especially if both teams are decent and that expands viewers and "the foot print".....ISU vs Baylor does not get those casual Big 10 fans that tune in to see how a team from their conference will do in an OOC game

The Big 12 needs to expand their foot print with the hard core fans of OOC programs and the causal fans of those OOC teams conference mates

look at WVU.....just like I talked about with ISU and makign moves on the schedule to get "hot" teams from the "I" states area on the schedule WVU needs to be doing the same on the east coast with PItt, ACC teams, and some of the far east SEC SEC SEC teams

that sells to their recruits and that brings viewers and interest from outside the 10 team Big 12 inbreeding

 

and back to the OOC games coming with the POTENTIAL win without the GUARANTEED loss to the conference overall....well if the Big 12 can get even their lesser programs to start winning better than 50% of their OOC games that means more teams in bowl games, more practices and more chances to play and get viewers especially out of conference viewers

that sells to recruits and more wins and fewer totally shitty programs to end the season means higher ranked programs to start the next season.....which of course helps with the playoffs and it just builds on itself

that is why the SEC SEC SEC will always play 8 games and always play a D1-AA team late in the year....I am not advocating for the Big 12 to play D1-AA (in fact I would say a hard limit of one EVERY OTHER YEAR) for any team with a 5 OOC game schedule, but crafting the conference schedule to help the lower ranked teams helps your conference massively especially at the top with strength of schedule

[Hurtlocker 2212]

28 minutes ago, ButtFumble said:

that is why the SEC SEC SEC will always play 8 games and always play a D1-AA team late in the year....I am not advocating for the Big 12 to play D1-AA (in fact I would say a hard limit of one EVERY OTHER YEAR) for any team with a 5 OOC game schedule, but crafting the conference schedule to help the lower ranked teams helps your conference massively especially at the top with strength of schedule

They play 10 this year, and all of a sudden their defenses aren't magical.   They ranked behind the Big 12 and Big Ten going into last week.  What a difference two games makes.

[Valmy77 13226]

Well we have Kansas, that is usually a 1-AA type game late in the season.

[ButtFumble 5172]

43 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Well we have Kansas, that is usually a 1-AA type game late in the season.

but of course Kansas is in the conference

so that "status" for them drags down all the other 9 teams....not only does it do so individually for each team for the game they play them, but it does so cumulatively because each Big 12 team also suffers the weakness of the others schedule as well

Texas (or anyone) takes the hit for a bad Kansas team (or whatever team is being horrible that year) and then they take the hit because every other team has that hit on their strength of schedule.....which goes back to dragging down Texas (or anyone) for strength of schedule

if you can get even a small % of the teams in conference to schedule a team that is not that horrible instead of Kansas that bumps the SOS for that individual team and then the bump in SOS for that individual team carries over to the other teams that play them in a conference game

that is what the study on the PAC 12 helped show where replacing a random conference game with an OOC game that was equal to the WEAKEST team on the schedule of each team still helped all the teams in the conference with strength of schedule with the exception of the one or two worst teams in the conference

[clapclapclap 9000]

6 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

Speaking of sportswriters, a little extra from Denver:

It’s been 10 years since CU decided to leave behind the Big 12 in favor of the Pac-12. This series examines what has happened since, as the Pac-12 has struggled to maintain national relevance, the Buffs football program has floundered and the school has watched its former Big 12 peers pass it by in terms of revenue and resources.

Part I: Where is CU 10 years later?

Part II: How lagging Pac-12 revenue affects CU

Part III: Recruiting and the California gold rush

Part IV: Culture and rivals in the Pac-12

Part V: What the future holds for CU

TL:DR - We totally made the right decision, but, like nothing worked out well.   Who knew?!

From Oregon, who seems to hate Scott with a passion reserved for few things:

Canzano: Pac-12 Networks facing questions and a cloudy path

Tl:DR   "One high-ranking conference official told me: "No media company wanted to partner with the Pac-12. ESPN declined. FOX, CBS, even the Discovery Channel declined. Nobody knows this.

“We weren’t wanted.”"

Holy crap at the hole Tennis Guy has dug.

[LTtxfan 49173]

Bryan Harsin urged Boise State leaders to leave Mountain West, emails show 

By Zach Barnett -   December 8, 2020

As if we don’t have enough going on right now, how does some realignment drama sound?

In September, when the Mountain West was shut down for the fall, Bryan Harsin fired off an email to Boise State AD Curt Aspey and president Marlene Tromp urging them to leave the Mountain West Conference.

“That leads into the conference conversation that we need to address again and for as long as it takes to put a plan together to move,” Harsin wrote in an email obtained by the Idaho Press. “NOW is the time! The longer it takes the longer we stay in the MW. I am 1000% convinced we need to make this move for football and if that means other sports too in the long run it will be what’s best for this University.

“I understand there are risks and budgets and travel costs that’s all real to me. I also know that’s exactly why Boise State is the program it is today because we took risks necessary to grow our program.”

Aspey responded by saying he had made overtures to the West Coast and Big West conferences, though no move was imminent.

Boise State would be an awkward fit in both leagues, at best. In fact, other than assuaging hurt feelings and possibly letting the Broncos call the shots, it’s hard to see how the school would be better served in either league.

The Big West is comprised entirely of Cal State and University of California system schools, plus Hawai’i. The West Coast is made up entirely of private institutions, though it does have big brands (Gonzaga, BYU) and a presence in San Diego, San Francisco and Portland.

It’s interesting that Aspey never mentioned the Big Sky, which holds a lot of Pacific Northwest state schools, including rival Idaho.

Neither league would be a fit for Boise State football, but the Broncos were once members of the American (back when it was the Big East) and the AAC would undoubtedly take them back in a heartbeat.

In the meantime, Boise State could win its fifth Mountain West football championship next week. Talk about awkward.

https://footballscoop.com/news/bryan-harsin-urged-boise-state-leaders-to-leave-mountain-west-emails-show/

[kopp0e 1135]

Huskers & Buffs could be having 2nd thoughts..? (Toss Baylor & WVU, add Utah & Arizona State & USC & UCLA)..? A sold 16 team league...

 

[LTtxfan 49173]

Return of the WAC: WAC reportedly planning Southland Conference raid

Cue up Mark Morrison, because the WAC is back.  As has long been rumored within the industry, the WAC is indeed planning a raid of the Southland Conference. Shehan Jeyarajah of Texas Football reported Thursday that Sam Houston State, Stephen F. Austin, Abilene Christian and Lamar are expected to leave the Southland for the WAC as part of the league’s plans to return to the football field.

Now it’s the WAC doing the picking, as this move will bring the Southland down to just seven football-playing schools.  Sam Houston State and Stephen F. Austin had each been Southland members since 1987; Lamar and ACU were both relative newcomers, Lamar joined the league when it revived football in 2011 while ACU joined from Division II in 2013.  The four Southland schools will join Dixie State and Tarleton State — two Division II call-ups — while Southern Utah is reportedly planning to leave the Big Sky for the WAC to bring the number up to seven.

New Mexico State would seem to be a top target for further expansion; the Aggies are already WAC members in Olympic sports and stand on uncertain ground in football as an FBS independent. Adding New Mexico State would give the conference a geographic bridge between Utah and Texas.  The move is a boon for Tarleton State, the Stephenville, Texas-based school that’s moving up from Division II and instantly gains four new neighbors — and, in the process, legitimacy in the Texas market.

Anticipated WAC Football Membership
Abilene Christian
Dixie State
Lamar
Sam Houston State
Southern Utah
Stephen F. Austin
Tarleton State

Losing four schools to the WAC will leave the Southland’s football membership an uneven mishmash of Louisiana public schools and Texas privates. Central Arkansas is reportedly on its way to the Atlantic Sun, but we’ll leave them in here for now.

Remaining Southland Football Membership
Central Arkansas
Houston Baptist
Incarnate Word
McNeese
Nicholls
Northwestern State
Southeastern Louisiana

The WAC’s play is the continuation of a burgeoning trend in FCS, where the SWAC has essentially hollowed out its former frenemy in the MEAC. 

https://footballscoop.com/news/return-of-the-wac-wac-reportedly-planning-southland-conference-raid/

Edited December 12, 2020 by LTtxfan

[Aqua Buddha 14590]

Colorado to the Mountain West?  Lulz.  Fine.

One thing that concerns me about absorbing the Pac-12 is too many mouths to feed and Colorado is one.  They barely get ratings in the Denver market.  If I can take the Zona schools, USC/UCLA, and only UW and Oregon, that's a good move.  (Consider that the Big 12 also takes in Nebraska.)  

However, if you're taking CU, Utah, Oregon State, and Wazzu, I'm getting way too many mouths to feed.  I can live with Stanford and Cal but they're borderline.  Total number of teams also becomes unwieldy.

 

 

[Somnio 751]

Just wanna barge in to say the Big XII is a shitty ass conference, and Texas should've gotten the fuck out a decade ago.  Pac, Big, SEC, Independent, Prestige Worldwide, whatever.

[bullet 1596]

2 hours ago, Somnio said:

Just wanna barge in to say the Big XII is a shitty ass conference, and Texas should've gotten the fuck out a decade ago.  Pac, Big, SEC, Independent, Prestige Worldwide, whatever.

Read Hurtlocker's articles before you mention the Putrid Athletic Conference.  They even have worse officials than the Big 12.

[Somnio 751]

38 minutes ago, bullet said:

Read Hurtlocker's articles before you mention the Putrid Athletic Conference.  They even have worse officials than the Big 12.

I know the Pac sucks too, but a Pac with Texas and and Oklahoma would be a fuckton better than the Pac or Big 12 today imo.

But whatever, I've accepted we're stuck playing fucking TCU, Baylor, and West Virginia every year.  Fuck it.

[mdleast 8289]

I know the Pac sucks too, but a Pac with Texas and and Oklahoma would be a fuckton better than the Pac or Big 12 today imo.
But whatever, I've accepted we're stuck playing fucking TCU, Baylor, and West Virginia every year.  Fuck it.

This. Everyone thinks of the Pac as they’ve been since USC had its decline but it would be a different conference with Texas and (let’s be honest, the far more successful) OU in the mix.

[bullet 1596]

Realignment of the SWC--in 1974.

 

Found this on another board.  Good discussion of the travails of the SWC in the year before Grant Teaff's miracle on the Brazos.

https://www.texasmonthly.com/the-culture/the-decline-and-fall-of-the-southwest-conference/

[Thiefery 4995]

On 12/8/2020 at 10:01 PM, kopp0e said:

Huskers & Buffs could be having 2nd thoughts..? (Toss Baylor & WVU, add Utah & Arizona State & USC & UCLA)..? A sold 16 team league...

 

Wouldn't that be 14? And that doesn't sound too bad either

SouthWest: SC, UCLA,utAH, ASU, Tech, TCU, UT

BIGcentral: ou, osu, ksu, ks, isu, cu, nu

[LTbear 4168]

On 12/3/2020 at 10:44 AM, Al_4_ISU said:

That has more to do with Texas's decade of mediocrity than anything.

The Big 10 is an absolute steaming shit pile after Ohio State.  They have large schools with lots of alums in big cities, but those programs aren't any better than the Big 12 ones.  The SEC?  Yeah, they have more high end schools than any other league.  The ACC is Clemson and everyone else (I don't count Notre Dame when it's a one year deal).  The Pac 12?  Ok.

There's one conference that's actually better than the Big 12 on a regular basis.  There are only 2 that make more money.  The "Big 12 sucks" sentiment has been mostly self fulfilling prophecy, but it's been going on for decades and people just can't be objective about any of it.

The only counterargument I'd make is that the B1G and especially the SEC and ACC DO benefit from having more members because with 14 teams playing 8 conference games, you automatically lower the number of losses each team will necessarily take. Low to middle tier teams load up on cupcakes and get artificially inflated in the polls, and the intra-conference scheduling allows several top teams to skip each other at the same time. The result is its way easier for multiple teams to maintain a high ranking late into the year than in the Big XII. No, it doesn't say anything about the actual quality of the teams, but from a lazy perception standpoint, it looks like other conferences have more ranked teams and more teams ranked higher. 

[Frank Gallagher 97]

1 hour ago, LTbear said:

The only counterargument I'd make is that the B1G and especially the SEC and ACC DO benefit from having more members because with 14 teams playing 8 conference games, you automatically lower the number of losses each team will necessarily take. Low to middle tier teams load up on cupcakes and get artificially inflated in the polls, and the intra-conference scheduling allows several top teams to skip each other at the same time. The result is its way easier for multiple teams to maintain a high ranking late into the year than in the Big XII. No, it doesn't say anything about the actual quality of the teams, but from a lazy perception standpoint, it looks like other conferences have more ranked teams and more teams ranked higher. 

Talent distribution of top half of leagues in 2021 using current 247 rankings:

SEC (1 ALA - 18 UM) Span=17

B10 (2-25) 23

ACC (5-31) 26

Pac (6-35) 29

B12 (9-43) 34

This is not an anomaly.  Also is evident in the NFL draft.  Outside UT and OU, the league stinks.

[DFW Horn 6123]

On 12/12/2020 at 1:21 PM, LTtxfan said:

Return of the WAC: WAC reportedly planning Southland Conference raid

Cue up Mark Morrison, because the WAC is back.  As has long been rumored within the industry, the WAC is indeed planning a raid of the Southland Conference. Shehan Jeyarajah of Texas Football reported Thursday that Sam Houston State, Stephen F. Austin, Abilene Christian and Lamar are expected to leave the Southland for the WAC as part of the league’s plans to return to the football field.

Now it’s the WAC doing the picking, as this move will bring the Southland down to just seven football-playing schools.  Sam Houston State and Stephen F. Austin had each been Southland members since 1987; Lamar and ACU were both relative newcomers, Lamar joined the league when it revived football in 2011 while ACU joined from Division II in 2013.  The four Southland schools will join Dixie State and Tarleton State — two Division II call-ups — while Southern Utah is reportedly planning to leave the Big Sky for the WAC to bring the number up to seven.

New Mexico State would seem to be a top target for further expansion; the Aggies are already WAC members in Olympic sports and stand on uncertain ground in football as an FBS independent. Adding New Mexico State would give the conference a geographic bridge between Utah and Texas.  The move is a boon for Tarleton State, the Stephenville, Texas-based school that’s moving up from Division II and instantly gains four new neighbors — and, in the process, legitimacy in the Texas market.

Anticipated WAC Football Membership
Abilene Christian
Dixie State
Lamar
Sam Houston State
Southern Utah
Stephen F. Austin
Tarleton State

Losing four schools to the WAC will leave the Southland’s football membership an uneven mishmash of Louisiana public schools and Texas privates. Central Arkansas is reportedly on its way to the Atlantic Sun, but we’ll leave them in here for now.

Remaining Southland Football Membership
Central Arkansas
Houston Baptist
Incarnate Word
McNeese
Nicholls
Northwestern State
Southeastern Louisiana

The WAC’s play is the continuation of a burgeoning trend in FCS, where the SWAC has essentially hollowed out its former frenemy in the MEAC. 

https://footballscoop.com/news/return-of-the-wac-wac-reportedly-planning-southland-conference-raid/

Hell, they should just merge for a 14-15 team WAC. I didn't read the article, but I'll guess the smaller private schools don't add any value. What a clusterfuck, TX + Utah.

[LTbear 4168]

6 minutes ago, Frank Gallagher said:

Talent distribution of top half of leagues in 2021 using current 247 rankings:

SEC (1 ALA - 18 UM) Span=17

B10 (2-25) 23

ACC (5-31) 26

Pac (6-35) 29

B12 (9-43) 34

This is not an anomaly.  Also is evident in the NFL draft.  Outside UT and OU, the league stinks.

We're not arguing the same thing. The point I was making is independent of yours, that generally, bigger leagues with fewer conference games creates a situation where it is easier to keep more teams more highly ranked, artificially inflating the conference prestige in a positive feedback loop, because those artificially inflated rankings mean bigger boosts (for winners) and lesser drops (for losers) when those teams actually do meet. 

 

I'm not arguing the Big XII has equal average talent as the SEC. I'm saying whatever the relative talent levels, some leagues have a system that artificially pumps them up even more. 

[Bill Lumbergh 7171]

We're not arguing the same thing. The point I was making is independent of yours, that generally, bigger leagues with fewer conference games creates a situation where it is easier to keep more teams more highly ranked, artificially inflating the conference prestige in a positive feedback loop, because those artificially inflated rankings mean bigger boosts (for winners) and lesser drops (for losers) when those teams actually do meet. 
 
I'm not arguing the Big XII has equal average talent as the SEC. I'm saying whatever the relative talent levels, some leagues have a system that artificially pumps them up even more. 

This year has really proven this out.

The brutal sec West has all of 3 teams with a winning record. However, if you allowed them their annual 3 gimme ooc games, 5 of the 7 teams in the west would have winning records.

I look at unranked 6-4 auburn, 4-4 ole miss, and 4-5 lsu, and think that in most years those teams would have 3 more guaranteed wins built in to their schedules and all 3 would be ranked.

It's objectively a terrible thing for the sport, but as long as it's clear that this behavior will be rewarded with higher rankings, all conferences should adopt similar schedules.

Before any sec homers bring up alabama's ooc scheduling, yes, they at least take on one real ooc contender each year. Everyone knows Alabama is for real. The fact that bama wins most of those games doesn't make auburn any less average. Alabama wins nearly all of their sec games, too.

[LarryMoeSurly 411]

If I remember correctly, the talk was always of Texas joining the PAC as those schools lined up best academically.  I believe that plays a larger part than what fans realize. OU isn’t leaving without Okie St, so there would need to be one additional school.  I’d say Baylor fits that best at the moment now that eATMe flew the coop.  

With the PAC not doing as well, perhaps this would be an opportunity to negotiate with better leverage. I don’t think the Longhorn Network would be the hanging point it was the last time realignment was being talked about. 
 

A PAC-16 (or rename it to something more fitting and get rid of the stupid number in the name) divined in east-west divisions.  East being comprised of Texas, OU, Okie St, Baylor, Ariz, Ariz St, Colorado, and Utah.

Who knows, still have around 3 years to figure it out. 

Edited December 19, 2020 by LarryMoeSurly

[Big Frog II 511]

59 minutes ago, LarryMoeSurly said:

If I remember correctly, the talk was always of Texas joining the PAC as those schools lined up best academically.  I believe that plays a larger part than what fans realize. OU isn’t leaving without Okie St, so there would need to be one additional school.  I’d say Baylor fits that best at the moment now that eATMe flew the coop.  

With the PAC not doing as well, perhaps this would be an opportunity to negotiate with better leverage. I don’t think the Longhorn Network would be the hanging point it was the last time realignment was being talked about. 
 

A PAC-16 (or rename it to something more fitting and get rid of the stupid number in the name) divined in east-west divisions.  East being comprised of Texas, OU, Okie St, Baylor, Ariz, Ariz St, Colorado, and Utah.

Who knows, still have around 3 years to figure it out. 

Baylor?

[Somnio 751]

1 hour ago, LarryMoeSurly said:

If I remember correctly, the talk was always of Texas joining the PAC as those schools lined up best academically.  I believe that plays a larger part than what fans realize. OU isn’t leaving without Okie St, so there would need to be one additional school.  I’d say Baylor fits that best at the moment now that eATMe flew the coop.  

With the PAC not doing as well, perhaps this would be an opportunity to negotiate with better leverage. I don’t think the Longhorn Network would be the hanging point it was the last time realignment was being talked about. 
 

A PAC-16 (or rename it to something more fitting and get rid of the stupid number in the name) divined in east-west divisions.  East being comprised of Texas, OU, Okie St, Baylor, Ariz, Ariz St, Colorado, and Utah.

Who knows, still have around 3 years to figure it out. 

Fuck Baylor.   Replace them with Tech

 

[LTbear 4168]

1 hour ago, LarryMoeSurly said:

If I remember correctly, the talk was always of Texas joining the PAC as those schools lined up best academically.  I believe that plays a larger part than what fans realize. OU isn’t leaving without Okie St, so there would need to be one additional school.  I’d say Baylor fits that best at the moment now that eATMe flew the coop.  

With the PAC not doing as well, perhaps this would be an opportunity to negotiate with better leverage. I don’t think the Longhorn Network would be the hanging point it was the last time realignment was being talked about. 
 

A PAC-16 (or rename it to something more fitting and get rid of the stupid number in the name) divined in east-west divisions.  East being comprised of Texas, OU, Okie St, Baylor, Ariz, Ariz St, Colorado, and Utah.

Who knows, still have around 3 years to figure it out. 

I'm a Baylor fan, and I think Tech fits that scenario better. 

 

That said, the PAC is struggling. Big XII teams earn more. Big XII raiding some PAC teams makes more sense than the reverse nowadays. But if the playoff ever expands to 8 the status quo may make the most sense. 

[LarryMoeSurly 411]

26 minutes ago, Somnio said:

Fuck Baylor.   Replace them with Tech

 

I agree re:F Baylor.  Was just thinking academic quality. 
 

I guess if the point is to maximize TV markets to get the biggest cash amount on next TV contract in 2024, TCU makes more sense. 

[DeadArmadillo 907]

I agree re:F Baylor.  Was just thinking academic quality. 
 
I guess if the point is to maximize TV markets to get the biggest cash amount on next TV contract in 2024, TCU makes more sense. 

TCU?

They don’t have any fans. If the PAC wants to improve, they’ll want the four big public schools with huge fan bases. UT, Tech, OU, and OSU. Your value in realignment is based almost entirely on how many people watch you play football. Like most private schools, Baylor and TCU bring little to the table

[JWinTX 53]

The reason that the PAC is the better option to join with relatively big  names not called Baylor or TCU. No lawsuits to fight. And join a better league with much better name recognition and better bowls connections. Join with OU, OSU, Tech, KU, and ISU.

[Aqua Buddha 14590]

44 minutes ago, LTbear said:

I'm a Baylor fan, and I think Tech fits that scenario better. 

 

That said, the PAC is struggling. Big XII teams earn more. Big XII raiding some PAC teams makes more sense than the reverse nowadays. But if the playoff ever expands to 8 the status quo may make the most sense. 

The problem with taking some Pac-12 teams is that there are only 4-5 programs you really want and the question then becomes who else do you have to take to get them?  I want Oregon and UW but does that mean I'm taking Wazzu and Oregon State?  Colorado and Utah are non starters.  There are a lot of mouths to feed in that league.  I'd only take the Zona schools, USC/UCLA, UW, and Oregon.  I'd entertain Stanford/Cal but the question is, do they want to come along?  Stanford might but I could see Cal taking a pass.

[LTbear 4168]

9 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

The problem with taking some Pac-12 teams is that there are only 4-5 programs you really want and the question then becomes who else do you have to take to get them?  I want Oregon and UW but does that mean I'm taking Wazzu and Oregon State?  Colorado and Utah are non starters.  There are a lot of mouths to feed in that league.  I'd only take the Zona schools, USC/UCLA, UW, and Oregon.  I'd entertain Stanford/Cal but the question is, do they want to come along?  Stanford might but I could see Cal taking a pass.

Sure, I only think it makes sense if you get USC and UCLA plus perhaps two more - say UA and ASU. I guess maybe if you get UW and UO too that makes sense but even harder to make happen (USC and UCLA leaving SU and UC plus UO leaving OSU and UW leaving WSU).

[notre dame joe 187]

2 hours ago, Big Frog II said:

Baylor?

Would actually help the PAC learn how to deal with different people.

[Big Frog II 511]

47 minutes ago, notre dame joe said:

Would actually help the PAC learn how to deal with different people.

Well then pick BYU.

[Walnut 71]

5 hours ago, Bill Lumbergh said:

Before any sec homers bring up alabama's ooc scheduling, yes, they at least take on one real ooc contender each year. Everyone knows Alabama is for real. 

I'm going to bring up Alabama's OOC scheduling, but in the opposite direction of what you envisioned. Alabama likes to schedule below their weight class whenever possible. They've had some big name games lately with USC and Florida State, but they're just as likely to schedule Duke and Louisville.

Alabama shouldn't get a pass from this criticism just because they win so much in the playoffs. They game the system with the best of them

[David Dennison 18854]

6 hours ago, Frank Gallagher said:

Talent distribution of top half of leagues in 2021 using current 247 rankings:

SEC (1 ALA - 18 UM) Span=17

B10 (2-25) 23

ACC (5-31) 26

Pac (6-35) 29

B12 (9-43) 34

This is not an anomaly.  Also is evident in the NFL draft.  Outside UT and OU, the league stinks.

Um, Texas is part of the stink.

[Al_4_ISU 12458]

On 12/19/2020 at 7:23 AM, Thiefery said:

Wouldn't that be 14? And that doesn't sound too bad either

SouthWest: SC, UCLA,utAH, ASU, Tech, TCU, UT

BIGcentral: ou, osu, ksu, ks, isu, cu, nu

You could just call that second division the Big 8 division.

[gmr548 16576]

On 12/19/2020 at 10:50 AM, LarryMoeSurly said:

If I remember correctly, the talk was always of Texas joining the PAC as those schools lined up best academically.  I believe that plays a larger part than what fans realize. OU isn’t leaving without Okie St, so there would need to be one additional school.  I’d say Baylor fits that best at the moment now that eATMe flew the coop.  

With the PAC not doing as well, perhaps this would be an opportunity to negotiate with better leverage. I don’t think the Longhorn Network would be the hanging point it was the last time realignment was being talked about. 
 

A PAC-16 (or rename it to something more fitting and get rid of the stupid number in the name) divined in east-west divisions.  East being comprised of Texas, OU, Okie St, Baylor, Ariz, Ariz St, Colorado, and Utah.

Who knows, still have around 3 years to figure it out. 

If that went down, and the PAC absorbed some of the Big 12 instead of the other way around, there's no way they're taking the private religious school with a proud tradition of covering up rape and murder. They're already compromising academically with the Okies so just throw in Tech there. Bigger, public, closer, not rapey.

[Al_4_ISU 12458]

In some Pac 12 absorbing the Big 12 scenario, ISU makes as much sense as anyone after OU and Texas for the Pac.  Good academics, big public school, and (at least historically, not so much recently) the most politically palatable (to them) state in the current Big 12.

The idea of the Pac 12, which is a complete disaster financially, on the field, and within the culture of college football holding power here is fucking insane though.

Edited December 21, 2020 by Al_4_ISU

[Aqua Buddha 14590]

The problem with the Pac-12 "absorbing" the Big 12 was that the Pac-12 contingent misjudged the leverage they had, or more correctly, did not have.  They thought they were bailing us out but it was the other way around.  They needed Texas and OU more than we needed them.  They instead held firm on the TV deal, took Colorado and Utah instead and fucked around and found out that no one cares about them.

Now, they're about to collapse on themselves.  They're about to get told to merge with the Big 12 but if they want to play, they need to pay in the form of financial commitments and some of those schools won't like that and may bail.  (Cal, Stanford, CU, etc.)  That may be a way out for some of the legislatures to let their flagships go.  (Washington and Oregon.)  They're not going to let UW and Oregon fail in order to try to save Wazzu and Oregon State, which are going to fail in either scenario.  (I have no idea what those states internal politics are.)

That gives us:

Zona/Zona State

USC/UCLA

Oregon/UW

I could also see some musical chairs with Nebraska, Missouri, and West Virginia.  That's a win for most everyone.

[Hagbard Celine 10853]

On 12/7/2020 at 11:29 PM, clapclapclap said:

Holy crap at the hole Tennis Guy has dug.

By the grace of Cal and Stanford he abides.

With their rights up in '24 it's time for them to go back to the PAC8.  USC and Stanford will squeal, but it's time for the b12 to go b16.

First, pay off the ACC and West Virginia.  You can't have a league in 4 time zones.

That leaves 7 slots:

Arizona

Arizona State

Colorado

Utah

++++

at that point, you make the call to arkansas and lsu.

assuming pig and corndog pass, who gets the last 3? options should factor tv markets, academics, geography filler, olympic sports &/or football piñatas...

geography package: Boise State, New Mexico, Wyoming

academics/tv package: Rice, SMU, Tulane

++++

NO BRETHREN AT ALL

[Hagbard Celine 10853]

also, corn made their bed and they can LIE in it

[Big Frog II 511]

Currently the Big 12 holds far more cards than the Pac 12.  I just have to think they are ripe for the picking.  Being on the west coast is killing them on their TV viewership and future TV contracts.  I really think the Big 12 can pull this off by inviting 6 or 7 of their best programs and putting together a TV and bowl package close to the Big 10 and SEC.

[Aqua Buddha 14590]

13 minutes ago, Big Frog II said:

Currently the Big 12 holds far more cards than the Pac 12.  I just have to think they are ripe for the picking.  Being on the west coast is killing them on their TV viewership and future TV contracts.  I really think the Big 12 can pull this off by inviting 6 or 7 of their best programs and putting together a TV and bowl package close to the Big 10 and SEC.

Agreed.  The Big 12 just needs to avoid taking on too many mouths to feed.

[Thiefery 4995]

I think it's a no brainer to bring in both AZ schools.. which leads to a picking between Utah and Co.  I think Nebraska could be back in the fold with the addition of CO and knowing it will be linked to ou again.

The real prize is SC and I'm not sure they are willing to jump yet, but maybe the conference lets them have some say on which schools should get invites or something.

 

[Hagbard Celine 10853]

SC is not coming and corn is 10 years in to a 100-year embargo.  Besides, corn no longer bring anything.  The relevance of their history is now on par with Minnesota, Army and Navy: a distant mirage on the horizon as the last century fades in to the twilight.  Minnesota, Army and Navy were helmet schools.  And so was corn.

[Aqua Buddha 14590]

Colorado is a mouth to feed.  They barely get ratings in Denver.

Serious question but how realistic is it to pawn off West Virginia to the SEC or ACC?  They’re been a good member but to Hagbard’s point, you can’t have a conference in four time zones?

I would take Nebraska is they’re interested, pawn off WV and get the top six Pac schools but no CU or Utah.  I’d rather have Stanford and Cal but academic snobbery may block that.

[Dnaguy 11947]

On 12/19/2020 at 9:13 AM, DFW Horn said:

Hell, they should just merge for a 14-15 team WAC. I didn't read the article, but I'll guess the smaller private schools don't add any value. What a clusterfuck, TX + Utah.

Shit is WAC, yo.

[atomheartbevo 89654]

4 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Serious question but how realistic is it to pawn off West Virginia to the SEC or ACC?  They’re been a good member

We need to keep WV.  They've been a good school and more loyal to the B12 than fucking aggy or Corn ever were.  And I want to travel there for an away game sometime.

[Dnaguy 11947]

Unless the Big12 can kick out WVU and Baylor, I don’t see them being able to absorb the 8 schools from the PAC.

18 is too many schools to make work.

In addition, TV is likely to plateau IMO and there’ll be too many mouths without enough bread.