Realignment talk not going away

[jinx 2635]

49 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Mizzou had a hard on for the Big 10.  They took the SEC as a way to save face.

I've known a few Mizzou fans, and every single one of them hates not playing a regional schedule.  They thought in the Big 10 they could marry academic prestige to a fairly regional schedule playing the Illinois schools and Iowa, and get more east coast visibility.  I don't think they really gave the SEC much of a thought until their flirtation with the Big 10 left them stuck in the Big 12.

Missouri doesn't fit in the SEC at all.  The fact that they are the 2nd westernmost school and play in the SEC East should tell you all you need to know about what the SEC thinks of them.

Most SEC fans I know thought "Texas A&M - pretty good if you can't get Texas or OU; Mizzou - WTF????"

[closetohumping 17386]

1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Mizzou had a hard on for the Big 10.  They took the SEC as a way to save face.

I've known a few Mizzou fans, and every single one of them hates not playing a regional schedule.  They thought in the Big 10 they could marry academic prestige to a fairly regional schedule playing the Illinois schools and Iowa, and get more east coast visibility.  I don't think they really gave the SEC much of a thought until their flirtation with the Big 10 left them stuck in the Big 12.

That's right.

[FloridaBig12Fan 6]

2 minutes ago, jinx said:

Missouri doesn't fit in the SEC at all.  The fact that they are the 2nd westernmost school and play in the SEC East should tell you all you need to know about what the SEC thinks of them.

Most SEC fans I know thought "Texas A&M - pretty good if you can't get Texas or OU; Mizzou - WTF????"

They may be treated as an also-ran, but they fit imo. Just not as well as they do in the Big 12. What west team should the SEC have moved? Auburn? I don’t think that means anything.
 

The state of Missouri is at the confluence of many cultural regions. As such their fit is an issue no matter what conference imo, but the Big 12 was as good as one could hope for in that regard. 

[David Dennison 18646]

Every day that aggy is in the SEC and Texas isn't is a good day for aggy.

We should join the SEC out of spite.

[NoRagrets 1125]

I will never understand why the big10 took Nebraska over Missouri.

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

13 minutes ago, sportsbay said:

Yes, the deadline is approaching for a decision to be made.  Smaller schools aren't an option unless we can negotiate a prorated TV deal.

1. Will the Pac (USC) concede and agree to breakup the Pac?  The remaining TV affiliate without any cfb is CBS.  Will they give the Pac what they want?  I don't think so.

2. Will a unified B12+Pac garner enough TV money to pacify OU and Texas?  This would be nice to know... what do UT and OU want?

If the numbers are not there for Texas and to a greater extent OU what are the remaining options?

3. Texas and OU to the B1G -- it's been offered and rejected by Texas to date.

I hate this option because of a lack of any regional rivalries or history except OU.  This is a great academic and financial fit but a poor football fit.

4. Texas and OU to the $ec.  Texas has been offered numerous times and rejected by Texas to date.

I like this option because we would be re-united with piggy and gomer while keeping dirt burglar.  It wouldn't be a great academic fit but the football and cash would be fun.

***Next shoe to drop?  Does Larry Scott stay as president of Pac 12?

If yes, the pac 12 merger will be dead and the smaller school option will be pushed again but found to be untenable because of the piss poor revenue.  Texas and OU jump and B12 collapses.

Tex, Ou to B1G will probably be first option with sec #2.  Then fit the puzzle pieces.... WVU to ACC, Tech/OSU/KSU/KU to Pac, Baylor/TCU to SEC.  ISU gets left out.

If Larry Scott is not retained, then Pac is getting canabalized and not the B12.

Jesus fucking Christ.  We aren't getting left out no matter how much a bunch of uninformed mouthbreathers stuck in 1995 want that to happen.  AAU.  Big state school.  Large, passionate fanbase.  Big facilities.  There is nothing about Iowa State that isn't P5 worthy other than your outdated opinion of Iowa State.

Edited December 22, 2020 by Al_4_ISU

[Hagbard Celine 10749]

4 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Jesus fucking Christ.  We aren't getting left out no matter how much a bunch of uninformed mouthbreathers stuck in 1995 want that to happen.  AAU.  Big state school.  Large, passionate fanbase.  Big facilities.  There is nothing about Iowa State that isn't P5 worthy other than your outdated opinion of Iowa State.

Al, you know we love you, but depending on how the chips fall, you may be on an island, AAU or not, and you need to do everything you can, as a school and fanbase, to stir the shitstorm far in advance of river cards.

The good news is, keep your program relevant, and you will be fine.

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

1 minute ago, Hagbard Celine said:

Al, you know we love you, but depending on how the chips fall, you may be on an island, AAU or not, and you need to do everything you can, as a school and fanbase, to stir the shitstorm far in advance of river cards.

The good news is, keep your program relevant, and you will be fine.

This is what we've been doing since the last go round.

We were in a bad spot in 2010.  We aren't now, and anyone who thinks so is pretty damn ignorant.  This isn't 2010-11 and the forces at work today are very different.

Edited December 22, 2020 by Al_4_ISU

[mr.goodkat 464]

5 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Jesus fucking Christ.  We aren't getting left out no matter how much a bunch of uninformed mouthbreathers stuck in 1995 want that to happen.  AAU.  Big state school.  Large, passionate fanbase.  Big facilities.  There is nothing about Iowa State that isn't P5 worthy other than your outdated opinion of Iowa State.

al its ok . ain't none of that shit gonna happen . Texas and /or ou are not gonna play 2nd and 3rd fiddle anywhere . 

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

4 minutes ago, mr.goodkat said:

al its ok . ain't none of that shit gonna happen . Texas and /or ou are not gonna play 2nd and 3rd fiddle anywhere . 

Yeah, I've always come back to that.  No school has ever changed leagues and been a power broker in their new home, with the exception of the early Big 12, which was kind of a merger between existing smaller leagues.

I'll admit I take the "ISU might get left out shit" personally.  If we were truly a barely P5 school, I could accept it.  If you "blind resume" ISU as an institution, a historic lack of success is basically the only card we don't fill, outside of being in a smaller population state, which doesn't really mean much in the cord-cut landscape.  No one is watching Rutgers despite there being more people within 20 miles of their campus than there are in this entire state.

We have the third largest football stadium in the Big 12.  We have a better case to make for high level inclusion than multiple schools in every single league (including the SEC).  It just infuriates me to have to take that shit, especially after 2010 when we watched our own in-state media openly rooting on our demise.

Edited December 22, 2020 by Al_4_ISU

[DFW Horn 6117]

21 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Every day that aggy is in the SEC and Texas isn't is a good day for aggy.

We should join the SEC out of spite.

We ain't taking our marching orders from Birmingham and the old south power brokers.

Not gonna happen. Fuck aggy

[FloridaBig12Fan 6]

2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Every day that aggy is in the SEC and Texas isn't is a good day for aggy.

We should join the SEC out of spite.

Conferences go as their bluebloods go, not the other way around. Also-rans go as their conference goes. What’s the Big 10 without OSU having elite success by not losing to the also-rans of that conference?

Texas going to the SEC West, without changes to the college football postseason, isn’t likely to be an improvement in product differentiation with Texas A&M. 
 

Conference affiliation is extremely secondary to UT’s problems in having elite seasons (granted it would help increase the budget). It’s nearly all about getting a good staff.

Whatever success a new staff would have in the SEC, it would likely be even greater as the flagship of the Big 12. UT in the Big 12 with a good coach staff this year is in the playoffs. In the SEC? Likely at home with A&M. 
 

The frustrating thing is the issue isn’t even UT is struggling to recruit, losing to more talented SEC teams in the postseason. Even with Herman and coming out of a horrible decade, UT beat UGa and gave LSU it’s best game. Good grief, just think what a UM or Saban would do in the Big 12 at UT. At the same time, also changing the image of the Big 12.

 

[Hagbard Celine 10749]

15 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

 It just infuriates me to have to take that shit, especially after 2010 when we watched our own in-state media openly rooting on our demise.

and you need to do something about that.  ut lets the msm statewide run roughshod over the truth at the expense of every other school in TOLA, because the moment we stand up for ourselves we bring the shitstorm of hate, fear and loathing.  but ut also can afford to ignore the msm's bullshit.

isu can not afford to let the dsm media play loose.  you must make them fear you before everyone puts money on the table.

[FloridaBig12Fan 6]

41 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Jesus fucking Christ.  We aren't getting left out no matter how much a bunch of uninformed mouthbreathers stuck in 1995 want that to happen.  AAU.  Big state school.  Large, passionate fanbase.  Big facilities.  There is nothing about Iowa State that isn't P5 worthy other than your outdated opinion of Iowa State.

The best thing for Iowa State, really all Big 12 schools that are not OU, maybe KU, is for UT to hire Urban. 
 

Had UT hired Saban to replace Mack, things would be a lot different for both conferences. The SEC would still produce title contenders, but the historic dynasty would likely be in the Big 12, leaving UT satisfied. With UT elite, there wouldn’t have been a need for a 13th data point, thereby clearing the way for both UT and OU to both be in the playoffs.
 

This would also have yielded a lot more social capital for the conference. Add to the chance the conference could have pulled a few ACC or Pac12 teams. UT would be king of college football 

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

1 minute ago, FloridaBig12Fan said:

The best thing for Iowa State, really all Big 12 schools that are not OU, maybe KU, is for UT to hire Urban. 
 

Had UT hired Saban to replace Mack, things would be a lot different for both conferences. The SEC would still produce title contenders, but the historic dynasty would likely be in the Big 12, leaving UT satisfied. With UT elite, there wouldn’t have been a need for a 13th data point, thereby clearing the way for both UT and OU to both be in the playoffs.
 

This would also have yielded a lot more social capital for the conference. Add to the chance the conference could have pulled a few ACC or Pac12 teams. UT would be king of college football 

If UT were consistently better it would be a good thing for the league.  There's no doubt about that.

[FloridaBig12Fan 6]

1 minute ago, Al_4_ISU said:

If UT were consistently better it would be a good thing for the league.  There's no doubt about that.

Perception is a bitch. 

No program has hurt the conference more the last 20 years than KSU. Despite being a top-20 program over the duration of my life, we can’t have them continuing to punch above their natural weight.

Of course, Mississippi St having a good year is lauded as a strength in the SEC. We don’t get that benefit. Then again, i don’t think even the SEC would get it if Bama and LSU were consistently losing to the SEC free riders. Recall pre-Saban SEC. 

 

 

[LTbear 4157]

3 hours ago, FloridaBig12Fan said:

Great post.
 

First, let me say I’m a big Big 12 fan. But we do have a perception problem. This started with a lack of history facilitating losing assets, but more than anything because our bluebloods havent been as good as Bama, LSU, Ohio St, and Clemson. Had UT hired Saban, I firmly believe the scoreboard fans in other conferences would change their tune.

Nevertheless, there are assets in the PAC 12 that would be more valuable if in the Big 12 (or any other central/East conference) imo. I’m not sure the reverse is true if UT went west. Your map shows why. The math on adding them may be better than adding their current value imo. Anecdotally, I have found people in Big 12/10/SEC areas know as much or more about the PAC 12 than the general population in the West. CFB matters more here.
 

The central and east want to care about USC, UCLA, Oregon Stanford etc, but it’s tough when they’re effectively playing in their own world. Add them to the schedule in better kickoff times, and it would work imo. And just the act of adding those brands would help the Big 12’s perception problem. Adding more to the demographic diversity helps too. 

The contention you can’t be successful with three time zones is amiss imo. It’s the fact that those other conferences were desperate and needed to span 3 time zones is why it struggled. Does anyone think the SEC would have faltered adding USC and Texas rather than Missouri and A$M? That said, there is something to be said for cultural continuity and a continuum, which correlates with geographical fit. That’s how you get mouth breathers chanting SEC SEC. 

 

Going off your last paragraph, culturally I feel like WV is a great Big XII team. 

[Hurtlocker 2208]

IF the system is going to remain the same then you need to play to that system.   I posted in another thread, but once the SEC had to play itself this year instead of having 8 conference games and 3 cupcakes, 2 of which usually being FCS, they looked pretty normal, which is to say, top heavy.    Top heavy is how you get into the playoff.   Getting into the playoff is how you get the press.   The press is how your brand is built.  

@camel at sea and @bullet and several others have been saying it for years, mimic the SEC and your numbers will improve.   Its true.   The problem for the Big 12 is you can't both make your numbers improve AND increase your TV revenues.   You kind of need to do the ACC thing where you give up the now for the future.  You've got two massive brands, which is enough.   The Big Ten is basically OSU/Michigan.   The SEC is basically Alabama/Georgia.   You've got the base.   If you just add massive brands, as alluded too above, you may have more TV money initially, but you'll also have the big guys taking more loses.   Prestige worldwide works way better as a post season than a regular season.   There has to be 50-70% of the conference that takes its lumps and is paid to do so.

To make the jump like the SEC, you need the next group to step up, with 3-4 teams who can compete nationally, but not always be world beaters.   If they can remain consistent, for 10-15+ years, you'll start to flesh out a different narrative.   Florida wasn't really a thing until the 90s, LSU wasn't until the 2000s (yes I know they won before, but in being a national power), Auburn is a roller coaster.   But, due to the BCS, all of them got a crack at a natty and took care of business when they had the opportunity.   

If you go grab two schools you can validate and also beat up on, play a 8 game conference schedule, add some bye week competition and a couple P5 cross overs, you'll get the press, if your Alphas dominate and you win those cross overs.    Texas/Oklahoma always need to be in the top 3 battling it out with either 0-2 losses tops.  That gives you the top heavy.   Then you need 3-4 beta schools who can all interchange to compete at a high level, all the time, and dedicate their resources to winning.   They won't all go 15 years straight, but what you want is for each of them to get 3-4 ten seasons wins over a decade, and be in the 7-8 range for the rest.   The Big 12 has the making of that too.   Texas Tech, Okie State, KState, TCU, Baylor, West Virginia and now ISU have shown they can step up.   

You don't want to end up like the Pac though, where they are not top heavy and 3-4 losses is standard.

Win the the inter conference, get a few freebee wins, and get 3-4 teams to the end of the season with less than 2 wins, then slap down your bowl games.   Keep building fan bases so stadiums end up in the 80s on average and next thing you know you're sitting in the drivers seat.   

The problem is there is no way of doing that without time.   The SEC did it over 20 years and had large rabid fan bases to tap into.   They're now able to leverage that into media deals.   The Big Ten did as well, with secondaries like Michigan State, Wisconsin, Penn State and Iowa all filling in the OSU/UM gaps.   The Big 12 could likely be right on par had they remained together, but they aren't far behind considering their contracts are old.

At the end of the day, the Big 12's issue, as noted above, is there just are not any blue bloods on the borders looking for a home, especially the eastern boarders where ALL the money is.   The Big kind of got the last of those with Penn State and Nebraska, and they got Nebraska 20 years removed from relevance.  If Texas and Oklahoma both left to join the SEC, it may make a bigger immediate paycheck, but they'd need to share losses now with other Prestige Worldwide names, which opens up opportunities for those who aren't canibalizing each other.  Additionally, OU and Texas don't need more resources to be successful.   They just need to use those resources to be successful.   Clemson makes $100m less than Texas in revenue.  Making $300m isn't going to get Texas a ring.  Oklahoma makes the same revenue as Alabama.     Turning resources into success isn't a conference conversation.   Iowa State makes $120m less than Texas and went 8-1 in conference this year.

So with the assumption that everything stays the same, adding two teams that are in the footprint, could be solid 500 teams where they have spurts of 8-10 wins and, most importantly, have the potential to improve greatly by investing resources (see Iowa State) would help everyone by going to 8 conference games.

If everything changes where the CFB is expanding and moving to more P5 games, having ten is sitting in a great spot because you have less mouths.   Hell, you may have teams like Cinci paying the Big 12 to join just so they can have the schedule.

 

Side note: if it is just revenue that we're worried about, the way to get that even better than expansion, is by pooling resources.   If the Pac 12 and Big 12 combined their rights, even while staying separate conferences, and went to market, they'd make far more than they would raiding.   If you add the Big Ten into this consortium, the numbers get freakishly high.   Neinas tried to do this prior to 2010 realignment and couldn't the powers to agree on anything, but it dwarfs anything a single conference can get.   And why would the Big Ten want in since they make the most?   Because now all of the inventory for the ACC and SEC is in ESPN, locking up the east coast and south.   With 36 teams combined over 4 time zones, you're able to provide a very unique and well leveraged inventory to multiple outlets simultaneously.   In short, you could basically value and sell more like the NFL.

 And nearly all of their rights come up (outside the Big Ten Network needing fed with inventory) between 2023 and 2025.

Edited December 22, 2020 by Hurtlocker

[RoyalBevo21 719]

4 hours ago, SwanderedTalent said:

I wonder if we could realistically get Louisville and Missouri into the Big 12. Does Missouri really like being in the SEC, other than so they can say "FUCK YOU HA HA WE DON'T WANT TO PLAY YOU" to Kansas? Pitt to me is too far East, and I really think they identify with the East Coast too much to want to be in a conference with a bunch of schools in the geographic middle of the country. 

What makes the most sense for us is middle-of-the-country expansion. If we could get Nebraska, I'd be in favor of that but I don't see that happening. I don't think we could get anyone out of the Big Ten. There aren't a lot of attractive candidates in the state of Texas now that we have TCU-- I just don't see Houston as a value add, SMU and North Texas are total G5 programs. There also aren't any FCS programs ready to move up where they'd make sense. 

Boise is intriguing. Utah would have been good. I'd take BYU. 

All of the above is strictly me wrestling with realistic scenarios-- what I would prefer is a Big 12 without Colorado, but with A&M and Nebraska. That was this conference at its best. Or, moreover, I'd like to see a massive realignment that took the conferences down to no more than ten teams playing an internal round-robin with no CCG and the champions receiving one of eight available post-season bids. Texas' best conference would be playing OU and Arkansas and A&M every year, plus other Texas schools, and a couple of marquee games out of conference that no longer determined if we got into the playoff or not (e.g., you could play and lose to Alabama and Ohio State, but win the conference and get into the playoff). 

But that's not realistic. 

Agreed completely. College football is NOT a national game. It's a very regional game of fans that like to interact with each other. WVU has been a great member, but I've yet to have discussions with fans of other Big 12 schools that involve WVU. 

 

My dream setup

 

Northeast
Boston College
Connecticut
Maryland
Rutgers
Penn St
Pitt
Rutgers
Syracuse
Virginia Tech
West Virginia

Coastal
Clemson
Duke
FSU
Miami
North Carolina
NC State
South Carolina
UCF
Virginia
Wake Forest

Southeast
Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
Georgia Tech
Kentucky
LSU
Mississippi
Mississippi ST
Tennessee

Mid-east
Indiana
Illinois
Iowa
Michigan
Michigan St
Minnesota
Northwestern
Ohio St
Purdue
Wisconsin

Southwest
Arkansas
Kansas
Kansas St
Missouri
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech

Western
Arizona
Arizona St
California
Oregon
Oregon St
Stanford
UCLA
USC
Washington
Washington St

Mountain
Baylor
Boise St
BYU
Colorado
Colorado St
Iowa St
TCU
Utah
UNLV
Wyoming

[LTbear 4157]

Bose State is apparently actively looking to move their football program to the AAC with all other sports playing elsewhere. :https://www.idahopress.com/blueturfsports/boise-state-and-the-aac-emails-show-conversations-research-on-possible-move/article_b8d969b8-e40d-5693-bbd9-81a0d276101e.html 

[SwanderedTalent 5761]

16 hours ago, RoyalBevo21 said:

Mountain
Baylor
Boise St
BYU
Colorado
Colorado St
Iowa St
TCU
Utah
UNLV
Wyoming

this is where your proposal falls a little short, I think. These mostly feel like leftovers that can't be appended to the teams they'd like to play, so you kind of stuck them together and called them the Mountain division. Iowa State in particular doesn't fit, and neither do Baylor or TCU. 

Rather than try to have a really mathematically pleasing model, we are probably better off accepting some conferences with 10 teams and some with 9 or 11, if need be. That also lets us be a little more realistic about who "gets" to play post-P5 championship football-- I see you've left Houston off entirely, and while I sympathize with any "fuck Cougar High" sentiment whether intentional or not, UH will absolutely be a part of whatever comes next for CFB. 

[Big Frog II 511]

A lot of this realignment nonsense would go away if they would just expand the CFP to at least 8.

[RoyalBevo21 719]

5 minutes ago, SwanderedTalent said:

this is where your proposal falls a little short, I think. These mostly feel like leftovers that can't be appended to the teams they'd like to play, so you kind of stuck them together and called them the Mountain division. Iowa State in particular doesn't fit, and neither do Baylor or TCU. 

Rather than try to have a really mathematically pleasing model, we are probably better off accepting some conferences with 10 teams and some with 9 or 11, if need be. That also lets us be a little more realistic about who "gets" to play post-P5 championship football-- I see you've left Houston off entirely, and while I sympathize with any "fuck Cougar High" sentiment whether intentional or not, UH will absolutely be a part of whatever comes next for CFB. 

Agreed, and you can see there is some imbalance of power. Some of those divisions are weaker than the others, specifically the mountain and the Northeast.

I also left off Vanderbilt and wanted to leave of Wake Forest. 

What leads you to believe Houston is 100% going to be included with the big dogs when all is said and done? If the schools all put their media rights in collective pot and split it 64 or in my model 70 ways there would probably already be too much overlap in the state of Texas as it is let alone adding another school that's only relevant once every 10 years or so. 

[ztejas 43262]

28 minutes ago, LTbear said:

Bose State is apparently actively looking to move their football program to the AAC with all other sports playing elsewhere. :https://www.idahopress.com/blueturfsports/boise-state-and-the-aac-emails-show-conversations-research-on-possible-move/article_b8d969b8-e40d-5693-bbd9-81a0d276101e.html 

Yup. It would be awesome. Hope they figure it out.  

[FloridaBig12Fan 6]

14 minutes ago, Big Frog II said:

A lot of this realignment nonsense would go away if they would just expand the CFP to at least 8.

It won’t go away, just modified and/or slowed.

The current conference structure is archaic and doesn’t utilize the regionalism of college football efficiently. There’s just too much money to be made by reorganizing college football into a more national entity of bundled groupings. 
 

Regionalism should not be killed off- it’s the advantageous product differentiation- but reorganized into more effective bundling, facilitating a national product.
 

Imo an example of this that the Pac12 is dying on its own. Not only does that hurt the Pac12, but it decreases the market for all. Get USC and company in the Big 12, subsidizing them with central and eastern relevancy.

[RoyalBevo21 719]

20 minutes ago, SwanderedTalent said:

this is where your proposal falls a little short, I think. These mostly feel like leftovers that can't be appended to the teams they'd like to play, so you kind of stuck them together and called them the Mountain division. Iowa State in particular doesn't fit, and neither do Baylor or TCU. 

Rather than try to have a really mathematically pleasing model, we are probably better off accepting some conferences with 10 teams and some with 9 or 11, if need be. That also lets us be a little more realistic about who "gets" to play post-P5 championship football-- I see you've left Houston off entirely, and while I sympathize with any "fuck Cougar High" sentiment whether intentional or not, UH will absolutely be a part of whatever comes next for CFB. 

I guess you could do this, but we've already been down this road before....

Plains (couldn't really come up with 9th)

Colorado

Iowa St 

Kansas 

Kansas St 

Missouri 

NDSU??? 

Nebraska 

Oklahoma 

Oklahoma St 

 

Southwest

Arkansas 

Baylor

Houston 

Rice

SMU 

Texas

Texas A&M

TCU

Texas Tech

[FloridaBig12Fan 6]

I would think adding more institutions to the profit share that’s driven primarily by 20-30 programs is over. Contraction is more likely.
 

I’m somewhat surprised the major players haven’t been able to use Covid as a natural accelerant in this regard, as they need to be careful in being too exclusionary too quickly.

Edited December 23, 2020 by FloridaBig12Fan

[kopp0e 1135]

Dropping this here:

 

[Aqua Buddha 14501]

19 hours ago, FloridaBig12Fan said:

[b]Conferences go as their bluebloods go, not the other way around.[/b] Also-rans go as their conference goes. What’s the Big 10 without OSU having elite success by not losing to the also-rans of that conference?

Texas going to the SEC West, without changes to the college football postseason, isn’t likely to be an improvement in product differentiation with Texas A&M. 
 

Conference affiliation is extremely secondary to UT’s problems in having elite seasons (granted it would help increase the budget). It’s nearly all about getting a good staff.

Whatever success a new staff would have in the SEC, it would likely be even greater as the flagship of the Big 12. UT in the Big 12 with a good coach staff this year is in the playoffs. In the SEC? Likely at home with A&M. 
 

The frustrating thing is the issue isn’t even UT is struggling to recruit, losing to more talented SEC teams in the postseason. Even with Herman and coming out of a horrible decade, UT beat UGa and gave LSU it’s best game. Good grief, just think what a UM or Saban would do in the Big 12 at UT. At the same time, also changing the image of the Big 12.

 

Bingo.  That is why the Big 12 is, and always will be relevant.  It's a good model if both OU and Texas are Top 5-10.  You have two national brands being nationally relevant and then another 2-3 teams on a rotating basis being Top 15-20 (Iowa State, Okie State, TCU, etc.).  Half the league is solid and if OU and Texas continue to schedule good OOC games, that's a decent TV package.  Also, an 11-1 Texas or OU will never be left out of the playoff.

Meanwhile, Aggy could go 11-1 and never get into the playoff.  It's be like this year.  One loss to Bama, who goes to the conference title game and even if Bama loses that game, both them and the conference champ are going to the playoff.  Teams like A&M's only hope is the playoff going to eight teams.

[Hagbard Celine 10749]

1 hour ago, FloridaBig12Fan said:

Get USC and company in the Big 12, subsidizing them with central and eastern relevancy.

re: any merger/raid that takes USC east

decision makers at stanford, cal, washington, oregon and nike: "we're not doing that"

 

re: domer to the b1g

decision makers at illinois, indiana, northwestern and purdue: "we're not doing that"

 

re: no celebration of special-ness for domer - you will join and play a football conference schedule

decision makers at domer: "we're not doing that"

 

re: no celebration of special-ness for the rose bowl - b1g/pac champions will never play in that 'game' ever again

decision makers of all b1g/pac schools: "we're not doing that"

Edited December 23, 2020 by Hagbard Celine

[Hagbard Celine 10749]

1 hour ago, FloridaBig12Fan said:

Regionalism should not be killed off- it’s the advantageous product differentiation- but reorganized into more effective bundling, facilitating a national product.

espn and the sec just killed that idea until 2034

next?

[David Dennison 18646]

51 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Bingo.  That is why the Big 12 is, and always will be relevant.  It's a good model if both OU and Texas are Top 5-10.  You have two national brands being nationally relevant and then another 2-3 teams on a rotating basis being Top 15-20 (Iowa State, Okie State, TCU, etc.).  Half the league is solid and if OU and Texas continue to schedule good OOC games, that's a decent TV package.  Also, an 11-1 Texas or OU will never be left out of the playoff.

Meanwhile, Aggy could go 11-1 and never get into the playoff.  It's be like this year.  One loss to Bama, who goes to the conference title game and even if Bama loses that game, both them and the conference champ are going to the playoff.  Teams like A&M's only hope is the playoff going to eight teams.

The Big 12 is garbage no matter how you spin it.

[Aqua Buddha 14501]

2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

The Big 12 is garbage no matter how you spin it.

It can be good but it's still boring.

[David Dennison 18646]

Just now, Aqua Buddha said:

It can be good but it's still boring.

I agree that it would be better if we would start pulling our weight as a perennial top ten team. I would still be less than enthused for our home conference schedule, but at least we would be winning those games.

[FloridaBig12Fan 6]

23 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

The Big 12 is garbage no matter how you spin it.

It’s not, but if it’s been mediocre, it’s because Texas has been mediocre. That doesn’t change for UT by switching conferences, no matter how much you spin it. Conferences aren’t good or bad based on their mid or low tier programs.

When you are the blueblood, standing in line for conference subsidies because you suck at hiring coaches is a fool’s errand. It risks you becoming the Nebraska of the southwest. 
 

Now, if you’re saying Texas is no longer, or never was, a blueblood and hence why the Big 12 has a perception problem, then it would make sense to go to the SEC or Big 10. Live off the work their bluebloods have done. 

[FloridaBig12Fan 6]

54 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

espn and the sec just killed that idea until 2034

next?

Disagree. Where this is going is bigger. 
That deal could be a catalyst in the other conferences bundling in response, which is a step forward.

[DCLonghorn 244]

Now now. This thread is no place for reason, logic, or truth Florida! Ha

[David Dennison 18646]

2 minutes ago, FloridaBig12Fan said:

It’s not, but if it’s been mediocre, it’s because Texas has been mediocre. That doesn’t change for UT by switching conferences, no matter how much you spin it. Conferences aren’t good or bad based on their mid or low tier programs.

When you are the blueblood, standing in line for conference subsidies because you suck at hiring coaches is a fool’s errand. It risks you becoming the Nebraska of the southwest. 
 

Now, if you’re saying Texas is no longer, or never was, a blueblood and hence why the Big 12 has a perception problem, then it would make sense to go to the SEC or Big 10. Live off the work their bluebloods have done. 

As constituted, the Big 12 is garbage even if Texas is good.  

[Macklemore 2871]

3 hours ago, LTbear said:

Bose State is apparently actively looking to move their football program to the AAC with all other sports playing elsewhere. :https://www.idahopress.com/blueturfsports/boise-state-and-the-aac-emails-show-conversations-research-on-possible-move/article_b8d969b8-e40d-5693-bbd9-81a0d276101e.html 

If the AAC can get Boise and BYU to join with them, they’d get to legitimately claim that they are a Power 6 conference

[Hagbard Celine 10749]

12 minutes ago, FloridaBig12Fan said:

Disagree. Where this is going is bigger. 
That deal could be a catalyst in the other conferences bundling in response, which is a step forward.

 

11 minutes ago, DCLonghorn said:

Now now. This thread is no place for reason, logic, or truth Florida! Ha

 

the following have just been locked in for 15 years:

klan aggy and vandy are p5

the secX3 scheduling shenanigan

bama and georgia play two regular season games sometime around 2030/2031

 

bundling rights solves nothing when a 4-team playoff concentrates all of the wealth at the top - watch the joel klatt video

[SunUvAbitchMarcos 129]

Then there’s the question of whether KU basketball is a better long-term bet than KSU football. 

It is.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

3 hours ago, RoyalBevo21 said:

I guess you could do this, but we've already been down this road before....

Plains (couldn't really come up with 9th)

Colorado

Iowa St 

Kansas 

Kansas St 

Missouri 

NDSU??? 

Nebraska 

Oklahoma 

Oklahoma St 

 

Southwest

Arkansas 

Baylor

Houston 

Rice

SMU 

Texas

Texas A&M

TCU

Texas Tech

Put in Colorado State instead of NDSU in the Plains division.

[kopp0e 1135]

[QUOTE]
Pac-12 payouts increase slightly, but league trails Big Ten ...

Jul 11, 2020 - Back in the old-normal world of 2018-19, the Pac-12 said it had total revenues of $530 million and distributions to schools totaling $387 million ...
---

Picture of stability? Big 12 members have plenty of reasons to ...

May 31, 2019 - Gee said that by the time the Big 12's TV contract with ESPN and Fox expires in 2024-25, the revenue distribution could hit $44 million to $45 ...
[/QUOTE]

XII contract at end of GoR's: expected $45 million for tier 1 & 2... PAC contract at end of GoR's, is estimated around $39 million for tier 1 & 2...
10 teams X $45m/ minus 2 teams: plus 8 = 16 teams @ $28m + 12 teams X $39m/ minus 4 teams: plus 8 = 16 teams @ $29m, totals $57m...
That's before we even discuss a 3rd tier backed by Disney streamed on ESPN+, that can place 1st & 2nd tier games on ABC/ ESPN/ ESPN2...
Let's say Oklahoma keeps deal with ESPN similar to what's given now nearing $9m/ Texas about $15m, OU @ $66m/ UT @ $72m./ USC @..?
That's before XVI, in 300 most populated metropolitan statistical areas, 56% markets, 168 cities, highest of a P4 league Wikipedia listed below:

[QUOTE]

2	Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA	13,353,907	12,828,837	+4.09%	Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA CSA
4	Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA	7,399,662	6,426,214	+15.15%	Dallas-Fort Worth, TX-OK CSA
5	Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA	6,892,427	5,920,416	+16.42%	Houston-The Woodlands, TX CSA
11	Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA	4,737,270	4,192,887	+12.98%
12	San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA MSA	4,727,357	4,335,391	+9.04%	San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA CSA
13	Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA	4,580,670	4,224,851	+8.42%	Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA CSA
15	Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA	3,867,046	3,439,809	+12.42%	Seattle-Tacoma, WA CSA
17	San Diego-Carlsbad, CA MSA	3,337,685	3,095,313	+7.83%
19	Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO MSA	2,888,227	2,543,482	+13.55%	Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO MSA
24	San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX MSA	2,473,974	2,142,508	+15.47%
25	Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA	2,453,168	2,226,009	+10.20%	Portland-Vancouver-Salem, OR-WA CSA
27	Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, CA MSA	2,324,884	2,149,127	+8.18%	Sacramento-Roseville, CA CSA
30	Kansas City, MO-KS MSA	2,128,912	2,009,342	+5.95%	Kansas City-Overland Park-Kansas City, MO-KS CSA
31	Austin-Round Rock, TX MSA	2,115,827	1,716,289	+23.28%
35	San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA MSA	1,998,463	1,836,911	+8.79%	San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA CSA
41	Oklahoma City, OK MSA	1,383,737	1,252,987	+10.44%	Oklahoma City-Shawnee, OK CSA
46	New Orleans-Metairie, LA MSA	1,275,762	1,189,866	+7.22%	New Orleans-Metairie-Hammond, LA-MS CSA
48	Salt Lake City, UT MSA	1,203,105	1,087,873	+10.59%	Salt Lake City-Provo-Orem, UT CSA
53	Tucson, AZ MSA	1,022,769	980,263	+4.34%	Tucson-Nogales, AZ CSA
54	Tulsa, OK MSA	990,706	937,478	+5.68%	Tulsa-Muskogee-Bartlesville, OK CSA
55	Fresno, CA MSA	989,255	930,450	+6.32%	Fresno-Madera, CA CSA
60	Albuquerque, NM MSA	910,726	887,077	+2.67%	Albuquerque-Santa Fe-Las Vegas, NM CSA
61	Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC MSA	895,923	824,112	+8.71%	Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson, SC CSA
62	Bakersfield, CA MSA	893,119	839,631	+6.37%
65	McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX MSA	860,661	774,769	+11.09%	McAllen-Edinburg, TX CSA
67	Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA MSA	854,223	823,318	+3.75%	Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA CSA
68	El Paso, TX MSA	844,818	804,123	+5.06%	El Paso-Las Cruces, TX-NM CSA
70	Baton Rouge, LA MSA	834,159	802,484	+3.95%
76	Stockton-Lodi, CA MSA	745,424	685,306	+8.77%	San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA CSA
79	Colorado Springs, CO MSA	723,878	645,613	+12.12%
84	Ogden-Clearfield, UT MSA	665,358	597,159	+11.42%	Salt Lake City-Provo-Orem, UT CSA
88	Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA MSA	645,911	569,633	+13.39%	Des Moines-Ames-West Des Moines, IA CSA
89	Wichita, KS MSA	645,628	630,919	+2.33%	Wichita-Arkansas City-Winfield, KS CSA
91	Provo-Orem, UT MSA	617,675	526,810	+17.25%	Salt Lake City-Provo-Orem, UT CSA
98	Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA MSA	564,236	527,753	+6.91%	Spokane-Spokane Valley-Coeur d'Alene, WACSA
101	Modesto, CA MSA	547,899	514,453	+6.50%	Modesto-Merced, CA CSA
107	Santa Rosa, CA MSA	504,217	483,878	+4.20%	San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA CSA
108	Lafayette, LA MSA	491,558	466,750	+5.32%	Lafayette-Opelousas-Morgan City, LA CSA
113	Visalia-Porterville, CA MSA	464,493	442,179	+5.05%	Visalia-Porterville-Hanford, CA CSA
118	Corpus Christi, TX MSA	454,008	428,185	+6.03%	Corpus Christi-Kingsville-Alice, TX CSA
119	Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA MSA	448,150	423,895	+5.72%
121	Vallejo-Fairfield, CA MSA	445,458	413,344	+7.77%	San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA CSA
122	Killeen-Temple, TX MSA	443,773	405,300	+9.49%
123	Shreveport-Bossier City, LA MSA	440,933	439,811	+0.26%
124	Salinas, CA MSA	437,907	415,057	+5.51%
126	Salem, OR MSA	424,982	390,738	+8.76%	Portland-Vancouver-Salem, OR-WA CSA
127	Brownsville-Harlingen, TX MSA	423,725	406,220	+4.31%	Brownsville-Harlingen-Raymondville, TX CSA
130	Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX MSA	412,437	403,190	+2.29%
141	Eugene, OR MSA	374,748	351,715	+6.55%
150	Fort Collins, CO MSA	343,976	299,630	+14.80%
155	Boulder, CO MSA	322,514	294,567	+9.49%	Denver-Aurora, CO CSA
158	Lubbock, TX MSA	316,983	290,805	+9.00%	Lubbock-Levelland, TX CSA
162	Greeley, CO MSA	304,633	252,825	+20.49%	Denver-Aurora, CO CSA
165	Kennewick-Richland, WA MSA	290,296	253,340	+14.59%
169	San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande, CA MSA	283,405	269,637	+5.11%
170	Fort Smith, AR-OK MSA	282,086	280,467	+0.58%
171	Olympia-Tumwater, WA MSA	280,588	252,264	+11.23%	Seattle-Tacoma, WA CSA
173	Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA MSA	275,897	262,382	+5.15%	San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA CSA
174	Laredo, TX MSA	274,794	250,304	+9.78%
176	Merced, CA MSA	272,673	255,793	+6.60%	Modesto-Merced, CA CSA
178	Cedar Rapids, IA MSA	270,293	257,940	+4.79%	Cedar Rapids-Iowa City, IA CSA
181	Waco, TX MSA	268,696	252,772	+6.30%
182	Bremerton-Silverdale, WA MSA	266,414	251,133	+6.08%	Seattle-Tacoma, WA CSA
184	Amarillo, TX MSA	264,925	251,933	+5.16%	Amarillo-Borger, TX CSA
188	College Station-Bryan, TX MSA	258,044	228,660	+12.85%
189	Yakima, WA MSA	250,193	243,231	+2.86%
196	Topeka, KS MSA	233,149	233,870	−0.31%
197	Chico, CA MSA	229,294	220,000	+4.22%
199	Prescott, AZ MSA	228,168	211,033	+8.12%
200	Tyler, TX MSA	227,727	209,714	+8.59%	Tyler-Jacksonville, TX CSA
201	Bellingham, WA MSA	221,404	201,140	+10.07%
205	Longview, TX MSA	217,481	214,369	+1.45%	Longview-Marshall, TX CSA
206	Medford, OR MSA	217,479	203,206	+7.02%	Medford-Grants Pass, OR CSA
212	Houma-Thibodaux, LA MSA	210,512	208,178	+1.12%
213	Lake Charles, LA MSA	209,357	199,607	+4.88%
216	Yuma, AZ MSA	207,534	195,751	+6.02%
217	Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ MSA	207,200	200,186	+3.50%	Las Vegas-Henderson, NV-AZ CSA
229	Bend-Redmond, OR MSA	186,875	157,733	+18.48%	Bend-Redmond-Prineville, OR CSA
231	El Centro, CA MSA	182,830	174,528	+4.76%
233	Redding, CA MSA	179,921	177,223	+1.52%	Redding-Red Bluff, CA CSA
237	Monroe, LA MSA	178,445	176,441	+1.14%	Monroe-Ruston-Bastrop, LA CSA
242	Yuba City, CA MSA	173,679	166,892	+4.07%	Sacramento-Roseville, CA CSA
243	Iowa City, IA MSA	171,491	152,586	+12.39%	Cedar Rapids-Iowa City, IA CSA
244	Midland, TX MSA	170,675	141,671	+20.47%	Midland-Odessa, TX CSA
247	Abilene, TX MSA	170,219	165,252	+3.01%
249	Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA MSA	169,892	167,819	+1.24%
250	Sioux City, IA-NE-SD MSA	168,618	168,563	+0.03%	Sioux City-Vermillion, IA-SD-NE CSA
254	Pueblo, CO MSA	166,475	159,063	+4.66%	Pueblo-Cañon City, CO CSA
256	St. George, UT MSA	165,662	138,115	+19.94%
263	Odessa, TX MSA	157,087	137,130	+14.55%	Midland-Odessa, TX CSA
264	Madera, CA MSA	156,890	150,865	+3.99%	Fresno-Madera, CA CSA
268	Alexandria, LA MSA	153,984	153,922	+0.04%
272	Grand Junction, CO MSA	151,616	146,723	+3.33%
275	Wichita Falls, TX MSA	151,230	151,306	−0.05%
277	Texarkana, TX-AR MSA	150,355	149,198	+0.78%
278	Hanford-Corcoran, CA MSA	150,101	152,982	−1.88%	Visalia-Porterville-Hanford, CA CSA
291	Napa, CA MSA	140,973	136,484	+3.29%	San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA CSA
292	Flagstaff, AZ MSA	140,776	134,421	+4.73%
295	Logan, UT-ID MSA	138,002	125,442	+10.01%

[/QUOTE]

[jinx 2635]

9 minutes ago, kopp0e said:

[QUOTE]
Pac-12 payouts increase slightly, but league trails Big Ten ...

Jul 11, 2020 - Back in the old-normal world of 2018-19, the Pac-12 said it had total revenues of $530 million and distributions to schools totaling $387 million ...
---

Picture of stability? Big 12 members have plenty of reasons to ...

May 31, 2019 - Gee said that by the time the Big 12's TV contract with ESPN and Fox expires in 2024-25, the revenue distribution could hit $44 million to $45 ...
[/QUOTE]

XII contract at end of GoR's: expected $45 million for tier 1 & 2... PAC contract at end of GoR's, is estimated around $39 million for tier 1 & 2...
10 teams X $45m/ minus 2 teams: plus 8 = 16 teams @ $28m + 12 teams X $39m/ minus 4 teams: plus 8 = 16 teams @ $29m, totals $57m...
That's before we even discuss a 3rd tier backed by Disney streamed on ESPN+, that can place 1st & 2nd tier games on ABC/ ESPN/ ESPN2...
Let's say Oklahoma keeps deal with ESPN similar to what's given now nearing $9m/ Texas about $15m, OU @ $66m/ UT @ $72m./ USC @..?
That's before XVI, in 300 most populated metropolitan statistical areas, 56% markets, 168 cities, highest of a P4 league Wikipedia listed below:

[QUOTE]

2	Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA	13,353,907	12,828,837	+4.09%	Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA CSA
4	Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA	7,399,662	6,426,214	+15.15%	Dallas-Fort Worth, TX-OK CSA
5	Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA	6,892,427	5,920,416	+16.42%	Houston-The Woodlands, TX CSA
11	Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA	4,737,270	4,192,887	+12.98%
12	San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA MSA	4,727,357	4,335,391	+9.04%	San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA CSA
13	Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA	4,580,670	4,224,851	+8.42%	Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA CSA
15	Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA	3,867,046	3,439,809	+12.42%	Seattle-Tacoma, WA CSA
17	San Diego-Carlsbad, CA MSA	3,337,685	3,095,313	+7.83%
19	Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO MSA	2,888,227	2,543,482	+13.55%	Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO MSA
24	San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX MSA	2,473,974	2,142,508	+15.47%
25	Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA	2,453,168	2,226,009	+10.20%	Portland-Vancouver-Salem, OR-WA CSA
27	Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, CA MSA	2,324,884	2,149,127	+8.18%	Sacramento-Roseville, CA CSA
30	Kansas City, MO-KS MSA	2,128,912	2,009,342	+5.95%	Kansas City-Overland Park-Kansas City, MO-KS CSA
31	Austin-Round Rock, TX MSA	2,115,827	1,716,289	+23.28%
35	San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA MSA	1,998,463	1,836,911	+8.79%	San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA CSA
41	Oklahoma City, OK MSA	1,383,737	1,252,987	+10.44%	Oklahoma City-Shawnee, OK CSA
46	New Orleans-Metairie, LA MSA	1,275,762	1,189,866	+7.22%	New Orleans-Metairie-Hammond, LA-MS CSA
48	Salt Lake City, UT MSA	1,203,105	1,087,873	+10.59%	Salt Lake City-Provo-Orem, UT CSA
53	Tucson, AZ MSA	1,022,769	980,263	+4.34%	Tucson-Nogales, AZ CSA
54	Tulsa, OK MSA	990,706	937,478	+5.68%	Tulsa-Muskogee-Bartlesville, OK CSA
55	Fresno, CA MSA	989,255	930,450	+6.32%	Fresno-Madera, CA CSA
60	Albuquerque, NM MSA	910,726	887,077	+2.67%	Albuquerque-Santa Fe-Las Vegas, NM CSA
61	Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC MSA	895,923	824,112	+8.71%	Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson, SC CSA
62	Bakersfield, CA MSA	893,119	839,631	+6.37%
65	McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX MSA	860,661	774,769	+11.09%	McAllen-Edinburg, TX CSA
67	Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA MSA	854,223	823,318	+3.75%	Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA CSA
68	El Paso, TX MSA	844,818	804,123	+5.06%	El Paso-Las Cruces, TX-NM CSA
70	Baton Rouge, LA MSA	834,159	802,484	+3.95%
76	Stockton-Lodi, CA MSA	745,424	685,306	+8.77%	San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA CSA
79	Colorado Springs, CO MSA	723,878	645,613	+12.12%
84	Ogden-Clearfield, UT MSA	665,358	597,159	+11.42%	Salt Lake City-Provo-Orem, UT CSA
88	Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA MSA	645,911	569,633	+13.39%	Des Moines-Ames-West Des Moines, IA CSA
89	Wichita, KS MSA	645,628	630,919	+2.33%	Wichita-Arkansas City-Winfield, KS CSA
91	Provo-Orem, UT MSA	617,675	526,810	+17.25%	Salt Lake City-Provo-Orem, UT CSA
98	Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA MSA	564,236	527,753	+6.91%	Spokane-Spokane Valley-Coeur d'Alene, WACSA
101	Modesto, CA MSA	547,899	514,453	+6.50%	Modesto-Merced, CA CSA
107	Santa Rosa, CA MSA	504,217	483,878	+4.20%	San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA CSA
108	Lafayette, LA MSA	491,558	466,750	+5.32%	Lafayette-Opelousas-Morgan City, LA CSA
113	Visalia-Porterville, CA MSA	464,493	442,179	+5.05%	Visalia-Porterville-Hanford, CA CSA
118	Corpus Christi, TX MSA	454,008	428,185	+6.03%	Corpus Christi-Kingsville-Alice, TX CSA
119	Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA MSA	448,150	423,895	+5.72%
121	Vallejo-Fairfield, CA MSA	445,458	413,344	+7.77%	San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA CSA
122	Killeen-Temple, TX MSA	443,773	405,300	+9.49%
123	Shreveport-Bossier City, LA MSA	440,933	439,811	+0.26%
124	Salinas, CA MSA	437,907	415,057	+5.51%
126	Salem, OR MSA	424,982	390,738	+8.76%	Portland-Vancouver-Salem, OR-WA CSA
127	Brownsville-Harlingen, TX MSA	423,725	406,220	+4.31%	Brownsville-Harlingen-Raymondville, TX CSA
130	Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX MSA	412,437	403,190	+2.29%
141	Eugene, OR MSA	374,748	351,715	+6.55%
150	Fort Collins, CO MSA	343,976	299,630	+14.80%
155	Boulder, CO MSA	322,514	294,567	+9.49%	Denver-Aurora, CO CSA
158	Lubbock, TX MSA	316,983	290,805	+9.00%	Lubbock-Levelland, TX CSA
162	Greeley, CO MSA	304,633	252,825	+20.49%	Denver-Aurora, CO CSA
165	Kennewick-Richland, WA MSA	290,296	253,340	+14.59%
169	San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande, CA MSA	283,405	269,637	+5.11%
170	Fort Smith, AR-OK MSA	282,086	280,467	+0.58%
171	Olympia-Tumwater, WA MSA	280,588	252,264	+11.23%	Seattle-Tacoma, WA CSA
173	Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA MSA	275,897	262,382	+5.15%	San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA CSA
174	Laredo, TX MSA	274,794	250,304	+9.78%
176	Merced, CA MSA	272,673	255,793	+6.60%	Modesto-Merced, CA CSA
178	Cedar Rapids, IA MSA	270,293	257,940	+4.79%	Cedar Rapids-Iowa City, IA CSA
181	Waco, TX MSA	268,696	252,772	+6.30%
182	Bremerton-Silverdale, WA MSA	266,414	251,133	+6.08%	Seattle-Tacoma, WA CSA
184	Amarillo, TX MSA	264,925	251,933	+5.16%	Amarillo-Borger, TX CSA
188	College Station-Bryan, TX MSA	258,044	228,660	+12.85%
189	Yakima, WA MSA	250,193	243,231	+2.86%
196	Topeka, KS MSA	233,149	233,870	−0.31%
197	Chico, CA MSA	229,294	220,000	+4.22%
199	Prescott, AZ MSA	228,168	211,033	+8.12%
200	Tyler, TX MSA	227,727	209,714	+8.59%	Tyler-Jacksonville, TX CSA
201	Bellingham, WA MSA	221,404	201,140	+10.07%
205	Longview, TX MSA	217,481	214,369	+1.45%	Longview-Marshall, TX CSA
206	Medford, OR MSA	217,479	203,206	+7.02%	Medford-Grants Pass, OR CSA
212	Houma-Thibodaux, LA MSA	210,512	208,178	+1.12%
213	Lake Charles, LA MSA	209,357	199,607	+4.88%
216	Yuma, AZ MSA	207,534	195,751	+6.02%
217	Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ MSA	207,200	200,186	+3.50%	Las Vegas-Henderson, NV-AZ CSA
229	Bend-Redmond, OR MSA	186,875	157,733	+18.48%	Bend-Redmond-Prineville, OR CSA
231	El Centro, CA MSA	182,830	174,528	+4.76%
233	Redding, CA MSA	179,921	177,223	+1.52%	Redding-Red Bluff, CA CSA
237	Monroe, LA MSA	178,445	176,441	+1.14%	Monroe-Ruston-Bastrop, LA CSA
242	Yuba City, CA MSA	173,679	166,892	+4.07%	Sacramento-Roseville, CA CSA
243	Iowa City, IA MSA	171,491	152,586	+12.39%	Cedar Rapids-Iowa City, IA CSA
244	Midland, TX MSA	170,675	141,671	+20.47%	Midland-Odessa, TX CSA
247	Abilene, TX MSA	170,219	165,252	+3.01%
249	Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA MSA	169,892	167,819	+1.24%
250	Sioux City, IA-NE-SD MSA	168,618	168,563	+0.03%	Sioux City-Vermillion, IA-SD-NE CSA
254	Pueblo, CO MSA	166,475	159,063	+4.66%	Pueblo-Cañon City, CO CSA
256	St. George, UT MSA	165,662	138,115	+19.94%
263	Odessa, TX MSA	157,087	137,130	+14.55%	Midland-Odessa, TX CSA
264	Madera, CA MSA	156,890	150,865	+3.99%	Fresno-Madera, CA CSA
268	Alexandria, LA MSA	153,984	153,922	+0.04%
272	Grand Junction, CO MSA	151,616	146,723	+3.33%
275	Wichita Falls, TX MSA	151,230	151,306	−0.05%
277	Texarkana, TX-AR MSA	150,355	149,198	+0.78%
278	Hanford-Corcoran, CA MSA	150,101	152,982	−1.88%	Visalia-Porterville-Hanford, CA CSA
291	Napa, CA MSA	140,973	136,484	+3.29%	San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA CSA
292	Flagstaff, AZ MSA	140,776	134,421	+4.73%
295	Logan, UT-ID MSA	138,002	125,442	+10.01%

[/QUOTE]

[camel at sea 589]

22 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

IF the system is going to remain the same then you need to play to that system.   I posted in another thread, but once the SEC had to play itself this year instead of having 8 conference games and 3 cupcakes, 2 of which usually being FCS, they looked pretty normal, which is to say, top heavy.    Top heavy is how you get into the playoff.   Getting into the playoff is how you get the press.   The press is how your brand is built.  

@camel at sea and @bullet and several others have been saying it for years, mimic the SEC and your numbers will improve.   Its true.   The problem for the Big 12 is you can't both make your numbers improve AND increase your TV revenues.   

Yeah.  If you cut the conference slate back to 8 games, you boost the perception/branding/etc. of the product but you make less money.  And vice versa.  If the Corn are available, though, it helps.  Our media rights w/ an 8 game slate become more valuable with them in tow than those rights are at status quo.  How much more valuable?  Not sure but NU is definitely additive.  They'd just be another program that has the fanbase and resources to get over the top when they cycle up (like a Big 12 version of the Vols.)  They just lack the recruiting footprint to be cycled up decade after decade like they were in the old days.

Are they available?  The B1G GOR runs through the early 2030s.  They're either looking for a mutual parting with the Big Ten or they're looking for a legal window to crawl through given the Big Ten's COVID policies.  I'd be surprised if they don't have lawyers looking into that because their admin has not exactly been going out of its way publicly to repair that marriage.  Offer them an annual Thanksgiving game with Oklahoma and they probably have the donor support to move back if the legal side can get worked out.  They might even be able to talk about "travel in the era of COVID" or some such, too.  

If we're a full-blown Disney owned conference at some point (we're mostly just waiting on OU to get there), maybe we can get the Mouse on board with ironing out some issues that FOX created for us 10 years ago.  Corn on board + a WVU for Arky trade, and suddenly we're very close to having a viable SECish set-up.  The fans will like those divisions.  There are good TV games across the conference ($).  The conference is culturally and geographically cohesive from a branding standpoint.  

North:  OU, NU, OSU, KSU, ISU, KU
South:  UT, Arky, TTU, TCU, BU, ??

 

[SwanderedTalent 5761]

5 hours ago, RoyalBevo21 said:

Agreed, and you can see there is some imbalance of power. Some of those divisions are weaker than the others, specifically the mountain and the Northeast.

I also left off Vanderbilt and wanted to leave of Wake Forest. 

What leads you to believe Houston is 100% going to be included with the big dogs when all is said and done? If the schools all put their media rights in collective pot and split it 64 or in my model 70 ways there would probably already be too much overlap in the state of Texas as it is let alone adding another school that's only relevant once every 10 years or so. 

I wasn't really thinking of it in terms of P5 collective bargaining because I seriously doubt we'll ever see any such thing. The CFA only lasted what, six years before Notre Dame found out how much money it was leaving on the table and broke free.  

I think Houston is too attractive a property to have absolutely no chair in which to sit-- I don't think overlap within the state of Texas is as big an obstacle to the kind of collective bargaining you're talking about because I don't think it will be based on cable subscriber households anymore. Inventory in the form of attractive matchups will be more important, and I absolutely think Texas-Houston is more watchable to the average CFB fan than Texas-Kansas or Texas-South Florida, etc. That doesn't mean Texas will lift a finger to ever help UH, but I do think if we're hypothesizing about an intentional "design" for CFB, Houston is a G5 program I would expect to be able to barnacle its way into the revised landscape the same way the big directional state-school Florida schools will. 

[RoyalBevo21 719]

34 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

Yeah.  If you cut the conference slate back to 8 games, you boost the perception/branding/etc. of the product but you make less money.  And vice versa.  If the Corn are available, though, it helps.  Our media rights w/ an 8 game slate become more valuable with them in tow than those rights are at status quo.  How much more valuable?  Not sure but NU is definitely additive.  They'd just be another program that has the fanbase and resources to get over the top when they cycle up (like a Big 12 version of the Vols.)  They just lack the recruiting footprint to be cycled up decade after decade like they were in the old days.

Are they available?  The B1G GOR runs through the early 2030s.  They're either looking for a mutual parting with the Big Ten or they're looking for a legal window to crawl through given the Big Ten's COVID policies.  I'd be surprised if they don't have lawyers looking into that because their admin has not exactly been going out of its way publicly to repair that marriage.  Offer them an annual Thanksgiving game with Oklahoma and they probably have the donor support to move back if the legal side can get worked out.  They might even be able to talk about "travel in the era of COVID" or some such, too.  

If we're a full-blown Disney owned conference at some point (we're mostly just waiting on OU to get there), maybe we can get the Mouse on board with ironing out some issues that FOX created for us 10 years ago.  Corn on board + a WVU for Arky trade, and suddenly we're very close to having a viable SECish set-up.  The fans will like those divisions.  There are good TV games across the conference ($).  The conference is culturally and geographically cohesive from a branding standpoint.  

North:  OU, NU, OSU, KSU, ISU, KU
South:  UT, Arky, TTU, TCU, BU, ??

 

That conference would be absolutely ideal. The only negative is still having Baylor in the fold but oh well. 

Unfortunately the piggies and their fans think they get some badge of honor by being in the $ec so them ever leaving is highly doubtful. 

[LTbear 4157]

Arky and Nebraska would honestly be the perfect scenario IMO. Two regional teams that current Big XII teams have history with and that are both big and/ or successful enough to add to the pot. That said, doubtful. Either of them with Cincy wouldn't be bad IMO. 

[Aqua Buddha 14501]

Arky would be great but with the new SEC deal coming up, I honestly don't see them leaving.

Although, watching it happen would be glorious.  Their fans drink more SECSECSEC Kool Aid than anyone.

[Kurt Bowels 213]

If we are all being honest, if you take budgets, recruiting territory and ability, media footprint, marketability, etc., there's really only 30 to 32 teams capable of playing in the upper division. They should only play each other every week and then have a 6 or 8 team playoff at the end. No more games against easy competition. No more unfair schedules that favor certain schools in certain conferences. Let a commissioner set the schedules.

Schools 33-85 or so can then play each other and have a 16 team playoff ( or something similar). Still some really entertaining programs in the new G5. A school that gets into the G5 playoffs and wins their championship with no more than 2 losses gets a spot in the power 5 national championship playoff. Let each "conference champ" + 2 or 3 at-large bids + G5 champ in the playoff.

Keep basketball and the other sports with more regional conferences

Here's a possible 32 team P5:

1. Alabama

2. Ohio State

3. Oklahoma

4. USC

5. Notre Dame

6. LSU

7. Florida

8. Florida State

9. Texas

10. Clemson

11. Auburn

12. Miami

13. Georgia

14. Michigan

15. Penn State

16. Oregon

17. Tennessee

18. UCLA

19. Texas A&M

20. Washington

21. Nebraska

22. Wisconsin

23. UNC

24. Virginia Tech

25. Iowa

26. Michigan State

27. Missouri

28. South Carolina

29. Ole Miss

30. Arkansas

31. Utah

32. Arizona State

 

If you want to keep a few other teams to create four conferences of eleven or twelve teams, here's another list:

1. Ohio State

2. Michigan

3. Penn State

4. Tennessee

5. Wisconsin

6. Michigan State

7. Missouri

8. West Virginia

9. Minnesota

10. Illinois

11. Notre Dame

12. Florida State

13. Clemson

14. UNC

15. Virginia Tech

16. Miami

17. Georgia Tech

18. Rutger s 

19. Maryland

20. UVA

21. Alabama

22. LSU

23. Florida

24. Auburn

25. Georgia

26. Texas A&M

27. South Carolina

28. Ole Miss

29. NC State

30. Arkansas

31. Kentucky

32. Oklahoma

33. USC

34. Texas

35. Oregon

36. Washington

37. UCLA

38. Iowa

39. Oklahoma State

40. Utah

41. Nebraska

42. Arizona State

43. Texas Tech 

44. Colorado

45. Iowa State

46. Arizona

47. BYU

48. Stanford OR TCU