Realignment talk not going away

[Hagbard Celine 10771]

3 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Holy copium!

https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/04/06/hotline-mailbag-media-rights-and-expansion-timelines-how-long-could-this-go-the-linear-calculation-sdsus-wait-survival-odds-and-more/

 

paywall override:

https://www.textise.net/showText.aspx?strURL=https%3A//www.mercurynews.com/2023/04/06/hotline-mailbag-media-rights-and-expansion-timelines-how-long-could-this-go-the-linear-calculation-sdsus-wait-survival-odds-and-more/#content

 

[TKthunder2 4981]

7 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

When UT and OU left, the remaining 8 wanted to merge with the Pac, and naturally the Pac scoffed at the idea and here we are.

 

”What we’ve got here, is failure…. To communicate.”

It would have been the best situation for all. Shame on all for their egos and hubris.

Would have been a little cleaner if the PAC had just poached Tech, TCU, Okie St, and Kansas after UT/OU left and then could have picked up Iowa St, Kansas St, Houston, SDSU, whoever for after USC/UCLA left but this obviously doesn’t work out as logical in real time as it could have on paper.

[Hagbard Celine 10771]

30 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Meanwhile, Childers always has to fucking bring up the inane notion of the SEC going after Arizona and ASU to add another time zone. 

map of the CSA, June 1861:

 

[USC Traveler 488]

1 minute ago, closetohumping said:

True.  We just took away aggy's one recruiting advantage.  Even if we had gone to the B1G, a shrewd aggy coach would say "want to play in a league full of NFL players or in Wisconsin in November?"

Yeah-  aggy never realized that they were simply a pawn in the SEC's game.  They were a means to an end to get the real prize in TX.

Hope they enjoyed their glory days in the SEC the last decade.  How may SEC titles have they won again ? I've lost count.😂

//

As to the SEC vs BIG recruiting pitch, totally agree, and I think that's the same thing the existing SEC schools want to be able to say when recruiting against FSU and Miami in the future.  The conventional wisdom is that FSU and Miami are SEC bound.  But if you're Bama, UGA, UF, Vols, etc, why would you want to elevate FSU and Miami with an SEC badge ?  That would make them much, much harder to recruit against.

SECNet won't make any additional money in FL with those teams, and they're not game-changers like UT or USC joining a conference.

I think there's a very good chance those teams end up in the BIG, which would benefit greatly from a FL presence.

Preventing them from joining the BIG might be something the SEC office would want, but I could see the old-line SEC power schools nuking that.  

What do you think ?  50/50 on FSU and Miami SEC/BIG ?

[TKthunder2 4981]

3 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

map of the CSA, June 1861:

 

Let us not forget the Kansas–Nebraska Act of 1854 which setup Kansas to be a slave state. Jayhawks to the SEC confirmed!

[LTbear 4161]

1 hour ago, TrashMaster G said:

Who sponsored their membership?

Please don't join the Utah crackpots. Don't do it to yourself. 

[USC Traveler 488]

14 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

But USC has to shoulder some of that blame.

USC (under the old incompetent leadership) shoulders part of the blame for not forcing the PAC16 to happen with LHN and all schools keeping T3 rights, but working to kill expansion in '21 was the first smart thing USC has done in the boardroom in a longtime (new leadership in place).

They were already talking to the BIG and probably knew where this would all end up.  If they had voted to expand, then there is going to be a new media deal and a need for a GOR.  Nuking expansion gave them another 10-11 months to get everything finalized with the BIG in secrecy.

It fucked over the PAC, but the PAC had been fucking USC over for two decades, so that's payback.  No one at USC gives a fuck about the PAC.  They're getting what they deserve.

Killing expansion was the first Tywin Lannister-style move USC made this century.  About damn time.

['stache 21778]

10 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

map of the CSA, June 1861:

 

Indian Territory should, at most, be red. It was never officially out of the US's control but did have heavy confederate influence, especially with some of the native tribes who had been "assimilated" into slave ownership, some of whom didn't really have a choice since the U.S. was focused further east and the surrounding confederate states had a lot of influence in promising them support if they fought on their side.

[closetohumping 17408]

10 minutes ago, USC Traveler said:

Yeah-  aggy never realized that they were simply a pawn in the SEC's game.  They were a means to an end to get the real prize in TX.

Hope they enjoyed their glory days in the SEC the last decade.  How may SEC titles have they won again ? I've lost count.😂

//

As to the SEC vs BIG recruiting pitch, totally agree, and I think that's the same thing the existing SEC schools want to be able to say when recruiting against FSU and Miami in the future.  The conventional wisdom is that FSU and Miami are SEC bound.  But if you're Bama, UGA, UF, Vols, etc, why would you want to elevate FSU and Miami with an SEC badge ?  That would make them much, much harder to recruit against.

SECNet won't make any additional money in FL with those teams, and they're not game-changers like UT or USC joining a conference.

I think there's a very good chance those teams end up in the BIG, which would benefit greatly from a FL presence.

Preventing them from joining the BIG might be something the SEC office would want, but I could see the old-line SEC power schools nuking that.  

What do you think ?  50/50 on FSU and Miami SEC/BIG ?

I literally think it's 50/50.  On one hand, that Florida market would look great for the B1G and would help with recruiting.  They could then say how regional the SEC is and they're the true coast to coast conference.   But the B1G is still all about academics.

 

SEC has no reason to add those two and Clemson other than to keep them away from the B1G.  This really does have a GOT feel to it and we're in the Lannister conference (incest reference).

[TKthunder2 4981]

17 minutes ago, USC Traveler said:

Yeah-  aggy never realized that they were simply a pawn in the SEC's game.  They were a means to an end to get the real prize in TX.

Hope they enjoyed their glory days in the SEC the last decade.  How may SEC titles have they won again ? I've lost count.😂

//

As to the SEC vs BIG recruiting pitch, totally agree, and I think that's the same thing the existing SEC schools want to be able to say when recruiting against FSU and Miami in the future.  The conventional wisdom is that FSU and Miami are SEC bound.  But if you're Bama, UGA, UF, Vols, etc, why would you want to elevate FSU and Miami with an SEC badge ?  That would make them much, much harder to recruit against.

SECNet won't make any additional money in FL with those teams, and they're not game-changers like UT or USC joining a conference.

I think there's a very good chance those teams end up in the BIG, which would benefit greatly from a FL presence.

Preventing them from joining the BIG might be something the SEC office would want, but I could see the old-line SEC power schools nuking that.  

What do you think ?  50/50 on FSU and Miami SEC/BIG ?

I see FSU/Clemson joining the SEC, it just seems too logical. While I could see the Big Ten making a play here, giving them two historical powers in the heart of the SEC won’t sit well with the conference or ESPN.

But honestly the next major realignment battle will be over UNC and UVA.

If the Big Ten gets those then I see them going further South and grabbing Miami and Georgia Tech and the city of Atlanta. Both are major city hubs for Big Ten alumni/fans and would have the Big Ten represented in every major city/market along the Eastern seaboard from NY to Miami (only really missing New England).

But without UNC/UVA I don’t see them wanting to have both LA and Miami/Atlanta on virtual islands which is why I think they’d pivot and go after the West Coast.

Edited April 7, 2023 by TKthunder2

[BurntOrange&White 39700]

1 minute ago, closetohumping said:

I literally think it's 50/50.  On one hand, that Florida market would look great for the B1G and would help with recruiting.  They could then say how regional the SEC is and they're the true coast to coast conference.   But the B1G is still all about academics.

 

SEC has no reason to add those two and Clemson other than to keep them away from the B1G.  This really does have a GOT feel to it and we're in the Lannister conference (incest reference).

Bobby and Gerry were talking about the shift in talent from high school to NFL  and 3 of the top 4 producers currently are SEC territory. I believe they said Florida was 1, Texas 2, California 3, and Georgia has solidified itself as the number 4 nfl talent producing state overtaking Pennsylvania/Ohio. That's just the raw numbers. Not even the per capita. 

 

 

 

Per Capita SEC takes 7 out of the top 10 spots

https://1033thegoat.com/10-states-with-most-nfl-players-per-capita/

 

5/10 of just the raw numbers as well.

 

 

 

Looking at these SEC taking a UNC for geographical footprint and talent acquisition standpoint.

[TrashMaster G 17395]

28 minutes ago, LTbear said:

Please don't join the Utah crackpots. Don't do it to yourself. 

Just asked a simple question.  I have no dog in this hunt.

[closetojumping 62259]

48 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Bobby and Gerry were talking about the shift in talent from high school to NFL  and 3 of the top 4 producers currently are SEC territory. I believe they said Florida was 1, Texas 2, California 3, and Georgia has solidified itself as the number 4 nfl talent producing state overtaking Pennsylvania/Ohio. That's just the raw numbers. Not even the per capita. 

 

 

 

Per Capita SEC takes 7 out of the top 10 spots

https://1033thegoat.com/10-states-with-most-nfl-players-per-capita/

 

5/10 of just the raw numbers as well.

 

 

 

Looking at these SEC taking a UNC for geographical footprint and talent acquisition standpoint.

I assume IMG Academy inflates the Florida number by some amount.

[LTbear 4161]

2 hours ago, TrashMaster G said:

Just asked a simple question.  I have no dog in this hunt.

Fair enough. I've heard a few Utah fans claim that other PAC schools supported their AAU candidacy in an attempt to "prove" their theory. 

[Hagbard Celine 10771]

5 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

Let us not forget the Kansas–Nebraska Act of 1854 which setup Kansas to be a slave state. Jayhawks to the SEC confirmed!

But anjin-san, do not forget, John Brown is buried in Lake Placid!

 

[TrashMaster G 17395]

5 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Bobby and Gerry were talking about the shift in talent from high school to NFL  and 3 of the top 4 producers currently are SEC territory. I believe they said Florida was 1, Texas 2, California 3, and Georgia has solidified itself as the number 4 nfl talent producing state overtaking Pennsylvania/Ohio. That's just the raw numbers. Not even the per capita. 

 

 

 

Per Capita SEC takes 7 out of the top 10 spots

https://1033thegoat.com/10-states-with-most-nfl-players-per-capita/

 

5/10 of just the raw numbers as well.

 

 

 

Looking at these SEC taking a UNC for geographical footprint and talent acquisition standpoint.

Taking the numbers at face value and re-ranking on a per capita basis looks like this:

Louisiana

Georgia

Alabama

Florida

Texas

New Jersey

Ohio

North Carolina

Pennsylvania

California

[USC Traveler 488]

5 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

I see FSU/Clemson joining the SEC, it just seems too logical. While I could see the Big Ten making a play here, giving them two historical powers in the heart of the SEC won’t sit well with the conference or ESPN.

But honestly the next major realignment battle will be over UNC and UVA.

If the Big Ten gets those then I see them going further South and grabbing Miami and Georgia Tech and the city of Atlanta. Both are major city hubs for Big Ten alumni/fans and would have the Big Ten represented in every major city/market along the Eastern seaboard from NY to Miami (only really missing New England).

But without UNC/UVA I don’t see them wanting to have both LA and Miami/Atlanta on virtual islands which is why I think they’d pivot and go after the West Coast.

 I agree that it will be a battle royale between the SEC and BIG for UVA and UNC, and they will likely be the first dominoes.  They're academically elite flagships of the two biggest states that have neither a BIG nor SEC school.  Both conferences want both schools, which is why I think they'll be able to bring Duke along with them, as they'll have leverage, and those three schools are tied together very closely.  My gut is that they will go BIG b/c of academics, cultural similarities between Charlottesville and Chapel Hill with places like Madison, Columbus and Ann Arbor,  and the fact that neither emphasizes football.

//

I also agree that the SEC office and ESPN will want FSU and Miami in the SEC.  But Sankey ultimately works for the Presidents of the 15 schools that don't have jizz jars.  (He clearly doesn't give two shits about aggy.😂)  And if you're an SEC school, it will be a lot easier to recruit against FSU if they're in the BIG than if they're in the SEC.

They don't need FSU to get access to FL- they already have it. If FSU is in the SEC, they become much more formidable to recruit against. Same goes for Miami.

And the SECNet is already in FL at in-market rates b/c of UF, so there's not anywhere near as much of a revenue increase for the SEC as the BIG would get from adding those schools.  The sole reason for adding them (besides increased inventory) would be to keep the BIG out of FL.  But I keep going back to the coaches and ADs, who would prefer to recruit against them as BIG members than SEC members.

It will be really interesting to see who wins that battle in the SEC- the conference office/ESPN or the schools.

//

If the SEC is wants them, no doubt FSU will say yes.  Miami is more interesting.  Miami admin, student base, donors, etc (and Miami/Dade county in general) are more aligned culturally to the BIG than the SEC.

 

If I'm the BIG, I offer UVA, UNC, Duke, GT, FSU and Miami as a package deal.  They like playing each other.  Guarantee that they will all be together in a new division in the BIG (or that all will be matched up against each other in a 3-7-7-7 format).

Bringing them in as a package would give the BIG a great chance of landing all of them.  I'd favor the BIG to get all of them but FSU in that scenario, even if the SEC is offering all of those schools also (which they wouldn't, as GT offers them no value.)

And of course, if ND has not already joined the BIG by then, this would force ND's hand.  Add Stanford as ND's partner, and that would be a wrap at 24 teams (if the FL schools joined).

 

//

 

If they can't get the FL schools, I could see the BIG stopping at 20 with ND, Stanford, UVA and UNC- if they could get them and only them.

But I do think UNC and UVA will use their leverage to bring along Duke, and probably GT also.  That would leave the BIG at 22.  

If they can't get FSU but can add Miami, that would be 23.  

TCU becomes interesting for #24 in that scenario.  DFW is the #5 US tv market.  BIG is in the top four already.

Assuming Stanford has been added, BIG would be in 8 of the top 10 tv markets if they added TCU.  Houston (7) and Boston (9) being the only exceptions.

 

 

 

 

[Gidnik 3251]

6 hours ago, closetohumping said:

But USC has to shoulder some of that blame.

no it doesnt

[USC Traveler 488]

With BYU joining the B12, has anyone updated the iconic "Cougar Stuck Outside the Window" image from Shaggy yet ?

I'd think one of the BYU fans would have created something ITT with the cougar breaking through the window by now.

[billfromlaketravis 11364]

What's all this gloomy shit about the the PAC 16?! 

You want conference member that care about football as much as we do. That was never going to happen out west. 

[Laxtonto 11934]

14 hours ago, USC Traveler said:

With BYU joining the B12, has anyone updated the iconic "Cougar Stuck Outside the Window" image from Shaggy yet ?

I'd think one of the BYU fans would have created something ITT with the cougar breaking through the window by now.

Never!

[Gidnik 3251]

 

[billfromlaketravis 11364]

Great, North Carolina and Virginia are 9th and 12th in population. So that makes them SEC worthy? 

Let the ACC f** off and do their own thing. I like the SEC at 16 teams. If they go to 18-20 teams, we're back to the aggy bullshit of playing Georgia once every 12 years. 

[billfromlaketravis 11364]

14 minutes ago, Gidnik said:

 

I'll say it again, the Big 12 is going to regret every GD day of UCF, Cincy, U of H, and BYU. Big, state schools were there for the taking if they just played out the string. They could have waited until this summer before adding teams. 

Instead the Irate8 threw a damned tantrum in the Texas Legislature and added a bunch of shitty AAC teams. 

Coug High better enjoy every f***ing second of that Texas home game because it will never happen again. Perfect storm of bureaucratic incompetence to bring us together. 

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I'll say it again, the Big 12 is going to regret every GD day of UCF, Cincy, U of H, and BYU. Big, state schools were there for the taking if they just played out the string. They could have waited until this summer before adding teams. 

Instead the Irate8 threw a damned tantrum in the Texas Legislature and added a bunch of shitty AAC teams. 

Coug High better enjoy every f***ing second of that Texas home game because it will never happen again. Perfect storm of bureaucratic incompetence to bring us together. 

An 8 team Big 12 was never going to be in a visible position of power.  How were they supposed to know Kevin Warren’s secret ambitions?  They HAD to create some sense of stability and adding BYU and some AAC schools was the only real option 

[camel at sea 589]

2 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

An 8 team Big 12 was never going to be in a visible position of power.  How were they supposed to know Kevin Warren’s secret ambitions?  They HAD to create some sense of stability and adding BYU and some AAC schools was the only real option 

Yeah.  The Big 12 didn't get into a position of power until after it expanded.  The expansion was necessary to get the contract extension.  The contract extension is why the Big 12 > PAC right now.    

In any case, BYU is more valuable than most of the remaining PAC and those three AAC adds are more valuable than Washington State and Oregon State, at the very least.  

[billfromlaketravis 11364]

2 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

An 8 team Big 12 was never going to be in a visible position of power.  How were they supposed to know Kevin Warren’s secret ambitions?  They HAD to create some sense of stability and adding BYU and some AAC schools was the only real option 

Why? I mean sure hindsight is 20-20, but they must have known they had Texas and OU at least through 2023.

You have a decent argument about adding 2 teams, but Jesus Christ, Cincy sans Fickell and UCF. 

[bullet 1596]

2 hours ago, Laxtonto said:

Never!

And maybe they get joined by Houston and WSU looking into the p2 window

[kopp0e 1135]

On 4/7/2023 at 8:13 AM, Al_4_ISU said:

I think in an era of forced consolidation, the SEC makes way more sense for Texas and OU than the Pac 16 would have.  The Pac 16 would have far worse geography, and only dangle a couple of blue bloods to beef up the home slate.  Add in the cultural mismatch, and over half the schools simply not giving a fuck, and IMO that league would not have worked long term.

Yeah I think even if Oklahoma & Texas along with 4 best buds had left for PAC in 2010, Sooners & Longhorns would still be in SEC by 2025.??

The same outcome at that point would lay in path of USC & UCLA to B1G, I surmise all 4 would see the higher $ of "super 2 recently & bolt...

On a side note I do think that there is a chance by 2030 where SEC/ B1G absorb top brands of ACC/ PAC while XII absorbs top brands left...

 

SEC in four pods of 6 members each:
pod #1 Alabama/ Auburn/ Florida/ Florida State/ Georgia/ South Carolina
pod #2 Kentucky/ Virginia/ North Carolina/ NC State/ Tennessee/ Vanderbilt
pod #3 Ole Miss/ Mississippi State/ LSU/ Arkansas/ Missouri/ Kansas
pod #4 Texas/ Texas A&M/ Oklahoma/ Colorado/ Arizona/ Arizona State

B1G in four pods of 6 members each:
pod #1 Penn State/ Rutgers/ Maryland/ Duke/ Georgia Tech/ Miami
pod #2 Michigan/ Michigan State/ Ohio State/ Notre Dame/ Purdue/ Indiana
pod #3 Illinois/ Northwestern/ Wisconsin/ Minnesota/ Iowa/ Nebraska
pod #4 Utah/ California/ USC/ UCLA/ Oregon/ Washington

XXIV in four pods of 6 members each:
pod #1 Boston College/ Syracuse/ Pittsburgh/ West Virgina/ Cincinatti/ Virginia Tech/ Wake Forest
pod #2 Clemson / UCF/ Memphis/ Louisville/ Iowa State
pod #3 Kansas State/ Oklahoma State/ Baylor/ TCU/ Houston / Texas Tech
pod #4 BYU/ UNLV/ San Diego State/ Fresno State/ Oregon State/ Washington State

[kopp0e 1135]

On 4/7/2023 at 10:01 AM, Hagbard Celine said:

map of the CSA, June 1861:

 

#MakeSECGreatAgain.?! 

[USC Traveler 488]

On 4/8/2023 at 8:05 AM, Laxtonto said:

Never!

Outstanding!

Like any classic work, it just gets better with time.

[DFW Horn 6118]

21 hours ago, kopp0e said:

Yeah I think even if Oklahoma & Texas along with 4 best buds had left for PAC in 2010, Sooners & Longhorns would still be in SEC by 2025.??

The same outcome at that point would lay in path of USC & UCLA to B1G, I surmise all 4 would see the higher $ of "super 2 recently & bolt...

On a side note I do think that there is a chance by 2030 where SEC/ B1G absorb top brands of ACC/ PAC while XII absorbs top brands left...

 

SEC in four pods of 6 members each:
pod #1 Alabama/ Auburn/ Florida/ Florida State/ Georgia/ South Carolina
pod #2 Kentucky/ Virginia/ North Carolina/ NC State/ Tennessee/ Vanderbilt
pod #3 Ole Miss/ Mississippi State/ LSU/ Arkansas/ Missouri/ Kansas
pod #4 Texas/ Texas A&M/ Oklahoma/ Colorado/ Arizona/ Arizona State

B1G in four pods of 6 members each:
pod #1 Penn State/ Rutgers/ Maryland/ Duke/ Georgia Tech/ Miami
pod #2 Michigan/ Michigan State/ Ohio State/ Notre Dame/ Purdue/ Indiana
pod #3 Illinois/ Northwestern/ Wisconsin/ Minnesota/ Iowa/ Nebraska
pod #4 Utah/ California/ USC/ UCLA/ Oregon/ Washington

XXIV in four pods of 6 members each:
pod #1 Boston College/ Syracuse/ Pittsburgh/ West Virgina/ Cincinatti/ Virginia Tech/ Wake Forest
pod #2 Clemson / UCF/ Memphis/ Louisville/ Iowa State
pod #3 Kansas State/ Oklahoma State/ Baylor/ TCU/ Houston / Texas Tech
pod #4 BYU/ UNLV/ San Diego State/ Fresno State/ Oregon State/ Washington State

[TKthunder2 4981]

10 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

Yeah, how could he forget Stanford? Am I right?

[billfromlaketravis 11364]

Are Big Ten fans mourning the loss of Kevin Warren? He had some vision on realignment/TV deals, but he unilaterally tried to shut down the league in 2020. 
 

What’s the speculation on his replacement? 

[BurntOrange&White 39700]

5 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Are Big Ten fans mourning the loss of Kevin Warren? He had some vision on realignment/TV deals, but he unilaterally tried to shut down the league in 2020. 
 

What’s the speculation on his replacement? 

I think he initially fucked up during pandemic but over the next couple of years he did well and even positioned them for the future.

[USC Traveler 488]

On 4/8/2023 at 8:51 AM, billfromlaketravis said:

Great, North Carolina and Virginia are 9th and 12th in population. So that makes them SEC worthy? 

Let the ACC f** off and do their own thing. I like the SEC at 16 teams. If they go to 18-20 teams, we're back to the aggy bullshit of playing Georgia once every 12 years. 

You're nailing an issue that most people don't think about- opportunity cost of expansion for the BIG/SEC and the networks.

The networks want annual rotating games between the big brands. That's what they're paying for, and why the BIG/SEC are moving to 3-6-6.

UT, with OU, aggy and arky as their 3 permanent rivals, will get something like Bama, LSU, Auburn one year, and UGA, UF, Vols the next year.

At 18 teams, you can still have that rotation with a 3-7-7 schedule, and teams can have 7 home games, which schools want for revenue.

20 is more problematic. The same rotation is possible with a 3-8-8, but schools won't get 7 home games every year with only one OOC game.

So the SEC/BIG are going to be extremely selective with who they add to get to 18, and the bar to go to 20 or more will be very high.

//
 

That, along with recruiting, is why I keep thinking there's a very real chance the SEC doesn't add FSU and Miami.  With the SEC already firmly entrenched in FL, those schools don't bring anywhere near the return to the SEC that they would to the BIG (huge new state for BTN and recruiting).  And I don't think SEC fans would be all that excited to add those schools into their schedule.  They won't be excited about VA and NC schools either, but the money will make it worth it for the conference and ESPN.  

For the BIG, adding the FL schools as part of a bigger package of ACC schools to get into VA, NC, GA and FL would be worth changing their rotation to every three years instead of every two. For example, USC would get OSU and PSU year 1, UM and MSU year 2, then FSU and Miami in year 3.

For the SEC, they only get the benefits of new markets by adding VA and NC schools, so they could easily stop at 18 with a 3-7-7 schedule and be done.  And the SEC has options- if UNC and UVA got BIG, they'll just add VT and NC State, which are more like SEC schools than UNC and UVA anyway.

The conventional wisdom in the media is that the SEC and BIG will always want to match each other with the same number of teams, but the conventional wisdom in the media also held that UT wasn't going SEC and USC wasn't going BIG.

The SEC and BIG will both do what makes them the most money.  Their plans are already diverging when it comes to geographic continuity.  

The SEC isn't going to add schools that are dilutive just to have the same number of schools as the BIG.

The people pushing that are the same people who predicted we'd have four superconferences with 16 teams each.

We could easily see a 24 team BIG and an 18 team SEC, as schools like FSU, Miami and GT bring so much more value to the BIG than they do to the SEC.
 

[USC Traveler 488]

1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Are Big Ten fans mourning the loss of Kevin Warren? He had some vision on realignment/TV deals, but he unilaterally tried to shut down the league in 2020. 
 

What’s the speculation on his replacement? 

The BIG folks I've talked to are glad he's gone.  

According to them:

1. Warren isn't 1/100th as sharp as Delaney, and he never got his credibility back after the debacle in 2020.  

2. Warren was a figurehead- Gene Smith (OSU) and Ward Manuel (UM) are the real power players- the ones who drove the USC and UCLA addition.

3. Warren started pushing for expansion beyond USC and UCLA after he got so much positive press when they were announced.  The BIG schools don't want further expansion until the ACC schools become available- unless it's ND. 

4.  Because of all of the above, he didn't have any base of support, which is why he left to go back to the NFL.

[TKthunder2 4981]

If the SEC participates in any kind of end game scenario it’s 100% around UVA/UNC and FSU/Clemson. That gets them to 20 and unless they are doing a full split of NCAA scenario (which will put a larger premium on successful basketball schools like Kansas and Duke) or they and ESPN (who is will to pay) decide they need to protect their market from the B1G (Miami, GT, NCSU, VT) it just doesn’t make financial sense expanding just to expand.

 

The Big Ten in the other hand has 3 national over the air broadcast partners and partially owns their own network which means they directly benefit from carriage fees and going coast to coast. Adding teams and markets of a lesser stature don’t hurt them as long as they have a way to protect and insulate their big programs from overloading on riffraff.

As proven over the years, Ohio State/Michigan versus anybody in the Big Ten conference is big enough to warrant a national broadcast. Notre Dame would also be at that level were they to join. Penn St/USC are close but just a step below. Penn St vs Rutgers didn’t get put in FOX Big Noon, but Michigan vs Rutgers did for example.

Here’s a list of the top DMA’s outside of the new Big Ten with realistic expansion candidates. I omitted Texas markets as they like can’t truly break into that market without UT/aggy or going all in adding Tech/TCU/UH which seems unlikely.

San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose (#6)
Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto (#20) *Cal/Stanford

Atlanta (#7)
*Georgia Tech

Boston (Manchester) (#10)
*Boston College

Phoenix (Prescott) (#11)
*AZ/ASU

Seattle-Tacoma (#12)
*UW

Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota) (#13)
Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne (#17)
Miami-Fort Lauderdale (#18)
*Miami/FSU

Denver (#16)
*CU

Portland, OR (#21)
*UO

Charlotte (#22)
Raleigh-Durham (Fayetteville) (#24)
Greenville-Spartanburg-Asheville-Anderson (#35) 
*UNC/Duke/NCSU

Salt Lake City (#30)
*U of Utah

Hartford & New Haven (#32)
*UConn

Kansas City (#34)
*Jayhawks

 

So the PAC10 schools are still just sitting there but since the SEC has said they are staying regional, there is not really a rush to add them because where are they going to go? But that’s 6 schools that can bring in 6 top 21 markets (and Utah). I know West Coast time zone and fan apathy have drawbacks, but by going national the Big Ten will not leave a top 10 market like SFO, an area of the country like the PNW, or an entire time zone like the Mountain time zone outside their footprint for too long. Look at every major professional sports league and know that’s how the Big Ten is now modeling it’s future.

Other than the West, the Big Ten needs the South. Getting into Florida (3 top 20 markets), Atlanta (#7), and NC (3 top 40 markets) is very attractive. The SEC could try to proactively grab those schools to protect their territory but I find it unlikely they take all of Miami, FSU, GT, Clemson, UNC, Duke, NCSU, UVA and VT just to keep the Big Ten out. So the Big Ten will get someone from the above list, the SEC/ESPN simply has to decide what it can deal with, which is taking the most powerful (FSU/Clemson) away and making sure they get the best flagships (UNC/UVA maybe Duke, and FSU to go along with UF to offset Miami) from any potentially shared markets.

I also think it’s worth noting that Boston College, UConn, and Kansas are also fringe Big Ten candidates. BC for their top 10 market, academics and to add another enticing piece to help lure ND since Boston has the 3rd most Irish fans of any market only behind NYC, Chicago and even ahead of South Bend. Kansas/UConn from their basketball and top 40 markets.

So I see a 20 team SEC looming with FSU, Clemson, UNC, UVA and a huge 24 team Big Ten with UW, UO, Stanford, ND, VT, Duke, GT, Miami.

[DFW Horn 6118]

 

[TKthunder2 4981]

7 hours ago, USC Traveler said:

That, along with recruiting, is why I keep thinking there's a very real chance the SEC doesn't add FSU and Miami.  With the SEC already firmly entrenched in FL, those schools don't bring anywhere near the return to the SEC that they would to the BIG (huge new state for BTN and recruiting).  And I don't think SEC fans would be all that excited to add those schools into their schedule.  They won't be excited about VA and NC schools either, but the money will make it worth it for the conference and ESPN.  

For the BIG, adding the FL schools as part of a bigger package of ACC schools to get into VA, NC, GA and FL would be worth changing their rotation to every three years instead of every two. For example, USC would get OSU and PSU year 1, UM and MSU year 2, then FSU and Miami in year 3.

For the SEC, they only get the benefits of new markets by adding VA and NC schools, so they could easily stop at 18 with a 3-7-7 schedule and be done.  And the SEC has options- if UNC and UVA got BIG, they'll just add VT and NC State, which are more like SEC schools than UNC and UVA anyway.

The conventional wisdom in the media is that the SEC and BIG will always want to match each other with the same number of teams, but the conventional wisdom in the media also held that UT wasn't going SEC and USC wasn't going BIG.

The SEC and BIG will both do what makes them the most money.  Their plans are already diverging when it comes to geographic continuity.  

The SEC isn't going to add schools that are dilutive just to have the same number of schools as the BIG.

The people pushing that are the same people who predicted we'd have four superconferences with 16 teams each.

We could easily see a 24 team BIG and an 18 team SEC, as schools like FSU, Miami and GT bring so much more value to the BIG than they do to the SEC.
 

Agree it won’t be tit for tat. I doubt the SEC grows past 22 (more on that # later) unless there is some other significant factors (like leaving the NCAA and holding a P2 or P5 or FBS only bball tournament) that don’t currently exist. But I still disagree with you around FSU.

If the Big Ten adds FSU and Miami then they have a very significant presence in the state and that will hurt the SEC. They may not be able to get consensus on adding Miami from the SEC members or from Miami themselves who may prefer the Big Ten (think back to how the Big East was for Miami in their hayday, not exactly regional for them and the MLB Miami/TB playing with NY/DC it NFL Miami playing with NY/NE/Buffalo).

Still, in order to secure Florida as an SEC state first and foremost the SEC should add FSU. If the Big Ten gets both Miami/FSU bringing USC, Ohio St, Michigan, Penn St, and maybe even Notre Dame into town regularly and that will affect recruiting for both FSU/Miami, but also for the B1G schools I listed above as well.

The recruiting conversation is about keeping the Big Ten schools out of Florida, not keeping FSU/Miami contained (as that’s not really realistic). Those schools will always be able to recruit based on simple geography.

Miami is the odd duck and I can 100% see them going to the Big Ten as they are not a great cultural fit for the SEC which is #1 flagship U and #2 State type schools with big campus stadiums with enrollments outside of Vandy. Plus the whole further North you go the further South you are, works both ways.

I also disagree about SEC schools would not be excited to play Clemson and FSU. Maybe it’s just outside your area but Clemson has a lot of history with the SEC schools and FSU is a regular OOC opponent. FSU besides playing UF annually (which means it would free up an OOC game for both) has played Alabama, Ole Miss, Georgia, Oklahoma, and LSU on its OOC slate. Clemson besides playing SC annually and UGA AND Auburn semi regularly has played LSU, aggy, Oklahoma and Alabama. So the only schools I see not being excited about playing FSU/Clemson is the weaker SEC schools like Missouri, Vandy, or Mississippi State.

Adding FSU and Clemson with not dilute the conference. They’d join the top 8 schools that others would be excited to play.

Like you said, right now for Texas outside our obvious rivals we’d play UF/UGA/Tenn or LSU/Aub/Bama any given year if we added a 3rd rotation of FSU/Clemson/?OleMiss? you’re not going to see a drop off when you balance them out: Bama/UF/OleMiss, LSU/Clemson/Tenn, UGA/FSU/Aub. Going to 22 actually would be a little easier as they can keep the 3-6-6 model but just add another 6 model and rotate through everyone every 3 years instead of every 2.

I’d personally prefer the SEC stay at 16 for a long while but if the ACC is going to blow up, they’d be dumb to sit by and let everyone go North and ignore the long game.

[Gidnik 3251]

 

 

Pac-12 deputy commissioner Jamie Zaninovich is leaving the conference this week after nine years to become managing director at TrailRunner International, a global strategic communications firm.

Zaninovich doubles as the Pac-12’s chief operating officer and has worked closely with commissioner George Kliavkoff on the media rights negotiations.

Friday will be his final day. However, his first consulting project at TrailRunner will be to advise the Pac-12 on the media negotiations, expansion and basketball strategy.

(The media rights saga, which began in July, is expected to conclude later this spring.)

In his new role, Zaninovich will help TrailRunner grow its sports business operation. The company is based in Dallas-Fort Worth but has offices across the country and in Shanghai.

Its clients include the Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills, Oakland A’s and, on two previous occasions, the Pac-12.

TrailRunner worked with the conference during its multi-year initiatives in China and provided communications advice in January when two executives were dismissed for failing to properly disclose overpayments by Comcast to the Pac-12 Networks.

The SportsBusiness Journal was the first to report Zaninovich’s move.

His duties at the Pac-12 include serving as the liaison between the conference’s executive staff and the athletic directors. Deputy commissioner Teresa Gould, a former athletic director at UC Davis, is expected to take over that role.

A former member of the NCAA Tournament selection committee, Zaninovich also oversees Pac-12 men’s basketball. He played a leading role in several strategic endeavors, including the move to a 20-game conference schedule, the implementation of non-conference scheduling standards and the creation of the series with the Southwestern Athletic Conference.

Drew Seidenberger, the associate commissioner for men’s basketball operations, will replace Zaninovich on an interim basis and seemingly is a candidate for the permanent position as the sport’s supervisor.

Zaninovich, who was the commissioner of the West Coast Conference before joining the Pac-12 in 2014, will continue to live in the Bay Area.

[BurntOrange&White 39700]

14 minutes ago, Gidnik said:

TrailRunner worked with the conference during its multi-year initiatives in China and provided communications advice in January when two executives were dismissed for failing to properly disclose overpayments by Comcast to the Pac-12 Networks.

That was a colossal failure

[CustersDoctor 584]

I now firmly believe the WAC10 deal will be a 6yr 1.8 billion dollar contract. They will stand pat with 10 teams. Therefore they will each get 30mil a year and can save face by by saying they have practically the same deal as the Big12 and a better deal than the ACC. But they can't expand because it dilutes the revenue. They shouldn't expand because the ten remaining teams know they are competing for limited OTA slots. They don't want to share their few daytime slots with two newbies. We've discussed in detail how no expansion option exists that brings good viewership. We all know that the WAC10 hopes to have three games a day on linear TV. If they have 12 schools, that puts 3 games on streaming. That 50/50 split is unacceptable! But if they only have 10 teams, that puts 3 games on linear and two on streaming which is a 60/40 split. This is way.

[BurntOrange&White 39700]

1 hour ago, CustersDoctor said:

I now firmly believe the WAC10 deal will be a 6yr 1.8 billion dollar contract. They will stand pat with 10 teams. Therefore they will each get 30mil a year and can save face by by saying they have practically the same deal as the Big12 and a better deal than the ACC. But they can't expand because it dilutes the revenue. They shouldn't expand because the ten remaining teams know they are competing for limited OTA slots. They don't want to share their few daytime slots with two newbies. We've discussed in detail how no expansion option exists that brings good viewership. We all know that the WAC10 hopes to have three games a day on linear TV. If they have 12 schools, that puts 3 games on streaming. That 50/50 split is unacceptable! But if they only have 10 teams, that puts 3 games on linear and two on streaming which is a 60/40 split. This is way.

Still going to be a lot less overall money due to cfb playoff payout and other factors that go into payout. It's not just that tv deal that is part of the payout equation.  It has been reported that the streaming portion of their deal is 50% minimum....throw in the fact that CW seems to be the only major linear network willing to give them a deal, they're fucked even if they stay at 10 teams. Arizona is ripe to leave.

Edited April 10, 2023 by BurntOrange&White

[Richard Kimball 1492]

Does anyone else find it weird that a conference that prides itself on being the smartest conference around screws up contract negotiations this badly?

On Zaninovich leaving the PAC to go to Trail Mix or whatever, you know the old joke about the difference between the bacon and the eggs at breakfast?

The chicken is involved. The pig is committed. Zaninovich went from being the pig to being the chicken. He can walk away from PAC12 negotiations any time he wants now, and take on other projects. 

[Park Gothic 4995]

33 minutes ago, Richard Kimball said:

Does anyone else find it weird that a conference that prides itself on being the smartest conference around screws up contract negotiations this badly?

On Zaninovich leaving the PAC to go to Trail Mix or whatever, you know the old joke about the difference between the bacon and the eggs at breakfast?

The chicken is involved. The pig is committed. Zaninovich went from being the pig to being the chicken. He can walk away from PAC12 negotiations any time he wants now, and take on other projects. 

Mike Leach on the officials in the 2007 Tech-Texas game in Austin: "It's a little like breakfast; you eat ham and eggs.  As coaches and players, we're like the ham. You see, the chicken's involved but the pig's committed. We're like the pig, they're like the chicken. They're involved, but everything we have rides on this."

[Richard Kimball 1492]

11 minutes ago, Park Gothic said:

Mike Leach on the officials in the 2007 Tech-Texas game in Austin: "It's a little like breakfast; you eat ham and eggs.  As coaches and players, we're like the ham. You see, the chicken's involved but the pig's committed. We're like the pig, they're like the chicken. They're involved, but everything we have rides on this."

Figures it was a Leach quote. Damn, I miss that guy.

[CustersDoctor 584]

9 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Still going to be a lot less overall money due to cfb playoff payout and other factors that go into payout. It's not just that tv deal that is part of the payout euation.  It has been reported that the streaming portion of their deal is 50% minimum....throw in the fact that CW seems to be the only major linear network willing to give them a deal, they're fucked even if they stay at 10 teams. Arizona is ripe to leave.

You are absolutely correct about the CFP money. The WAC10 will almost NEVER get two teams into the 12 team playoff. The BIG12 & the ACC will usually have two but almost never three. The BIG and the SEC will usually have three. The WAC10 will get their automatic bid and that's about it, then they'll divide that revenue by 10. Their total income per team will be far behind the BIG12 because their 10 team league wont receive as much playoff money. But their new deal is more about appearing to be as good at the BIG12s, its about saving face, its about being able to claim that they own the late late time slot.

[closetojumping 62259]

23 minutes ago, Park Gothic said:

Mike Leach on the officials in the 2007 Tech-Texas game in Austin: "It's a little like breakfast; you eat ham and eggs.  As coaches and players, we're like the ham. You see, the chicken's involved but the pig's committed. We're like the pig, they're like the chicken. They're involved, but everything we have rides on this."

 

11 minutes ago, Richard Kimball said:

Figures it was a Leach quote. Damn, I miss that guy.

I believe it is a joke told in one of the old business management books like Who Moved My Cheese? or the Lencioni stories. I read it in something like one of those things years before 2007. Still a great coach from Leach though.

[Hurtlocker 2208]

On 4/2/2023 at 2:37 PM, USC Traveler said:

I've been in Surly retirement for a few years (life happens fast), but there is just too much interesting stuff going on to not to carve out some time to post.

Shout out to the OGs from the Shaggy Realignment thread that are still killing it in here- Bullet, Camel, TK Thunder, Gaffords, Hurtlocker, Hagbard, MDMost.

Props to those of you (Camel, Gaffords, Most and TK off the top of my head) who were calling USC to the BIG about this time last year.  I was saying the same thing on my USC board.  The money difference was too great not to make the jump, and by bringing UCLA along, we kept the only PAC team that we truly care about playing.  (I do think Stanford will join as a partner for ND in the next 2-12 years, which will be nice to have a guaranteed road game in CA every year).  

Kudos to Trojan Man for doing good work in here as well.

//

I would have loved the PAC16.  Playing UT, OU and the rest of the gang on the regular would have been a blast, and I was bummed when it all fizzled.  But having UT plus OU in the SEC, and USC in the BIG is a great outcome.  Will be fun to see UT-Arky and UT-Aggy again, along with new matchups vs old line SEC teams.

Growing up in the '70's, I saw some epic USC vs OSU/UM Rose Bowls, and have been to a couple of USC-OSU games over the decades that were top shelf events.  Most of my friends and I feel like we're joining a conference where we'll finally be with our historic rivals and peers.  

//

It's crazy to think how much things have changed since 2010.

The PAC Presidents, Commisar Scott and Klownkoff couldn't have screwed their situation up any worse if they tried.  Arrogance and incompetence.

1. Starting a conference network without ESPN or Fox as a partner, and expecting they'd get strong distribution.  Laughable.

2. If they had allowed schools to keep T3 rights, the PAC 16 would have been a legit 3rd superconference.  UT, OU, USC, etc would have made a little more money than other schools, but the vast majority of the money would have been equal, and would be exponentially larger than what the WAC10 is looking at now.

3. Adding OU and OSU would have also been a game-changer.  Not at the PAC16 level, but it would be a huge difference vs where they are now.

4. Klownkoff was so busy puffing himself up on his media tour to celebrate his one year anniversary of doing nothing, he failed to realize that job 1 was keeping USC happy.  Mike Bohn had publicly stated twice that "All options are on the table" regarding conference affiliation.  One week before USC and UCLA announced for the BIG, Klownkoff was telling reporters "No school is leaving the PAC12."  

You literally can't make this stuff up.

//

I'm glad to see that it's going to be the PAC that dies, and not the B12.  The schools in the B12 actually care about football, whereas the WAC10 Presidents have proved over and over that they don't.  Looks like the B12 will be the top non-P2 conference when all the dust settles and the BIG/SEC have raided the ACC.

B12 will offer a fun, coast to coast league with a lot of competitive teams, with the top tier being playoff worthy.

Damn brotha, great seeing you around.   Hope life's been well!