Realignment talk not going away

[Sbbruin 22082]

1 minute ago, camel at sea said:

 If the Bears don't suck, they can draw 50K+ to football games. 

That place is a ghost town most games.  They have a LONG way to go to draw 50K per game.

[Valmy77 13567]

There were 50,000 people there when Cal proved Charlie Strong was a terrible coach in 2016.

[camel at sea 589]

14 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

That place is a ghost town most games.  They have a LONG way to go to draw 50K per game.

In the last decade or so, yeah.  They were regularly drawing 50K+ in the mid to late aughts, when they were putting a good product on the field.  Their '07 team drew 70K+ twice.  

[TKthunder2 5058]

TK’s first attempt at designating the Big Ten’s 3 permanent rivalries

[LTbear 4209]

40 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

That place is a ghost town most games.  They have a LONG way to go to draw 50K per game.

[Sbbruin 22082]

8 minutes ago, LTbear said:

The camera subtracts 25K fans.

[notre dame joe 202]

1 hour ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Exactly.

There’s a big difference between small private schools in a random big metro area and large public state universities.

That’s why pretty much every large public state university is already in a P5 conference, regardless if they are traditional blue bloods or not, and why schools like Rice and SMU are always swinging in the wind during realignment.

 

You would think the private schools would get the message and form their own union.  But no they would rather wait until they get voted off the island. 

[Trojan Man 429]

50 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

I agree with you, though I do think it's weird to imagine Cal being left out.  They've got a larger local fanbase than Stanford does.  If the Bears don't suck, they can draw 50K+ to football games.  The TV appeal just isn't there, though.  Stanford hiring Harbaugh and going on an extended run may end up pretty fortunate for their program in the long run.  

I see talk about Amazon/Apple getting involved in the B1G, pushing for more expansion there, but there isn't really a reason they couldn't get involved with the Big 12, and less expensively.  If the Big 12 added the 4C + UO/UW, that's more inventory than ESPN/FOX likely have room for.  The rest would go to market and the streamers could bid on it.

Cal and Stanford will both suck going forward because neither one will play the NIL game.  Of the two I think Stanford has a better chance at having decent seasons in the future because they can attract a certain type of recruit who is a quality football player and whose #1 priority is their education.  Stanford is second to none for education prestige at the P5 level.  Those kinds of recruits aren't sold on the dream of NFL money so a good coach could keep getting them even with subpar NIL money because over a lifetime the value of a Stanford degree will more than make up for the NIL opportunities available to most players.  It's just a matter of convincing 17 y/os to be mature enough to prioritize delayed gratification over money in their pocket right now, but if they're serious about education that's doable.  Even during the Carroll era USC still lost a couple recruits each class the staff really wanted to Stanford and they were horrible back then.

Competitiveness aside, both schools (especially Cal) bring too much boardroom drama so I won't weep if they aren't reunited with USC in the B1G.  I'm happy this is the last year I have to care how Cal's ivory tower bullshit affects USC.  Cal and Stanford are the ringleaders of the mindset that the conference is a country club for administrators and professors to circle jerk about academic rankings instead of a business alliance that maximizes athletic dollars and exposure, which killed the Pac 12.  If the Bay Area schools are invited to the B1G it needs to be as non-voting members because they have proven the way they vote is suicidal to their conference.  Also, you're right about Cal having a bigger fanbase than Stanford but it's still not that big.  Both of them are elitist schools that get a large chunk of their students from out of state or internationally so that puts a limit on the size of their fanbase and how much appeal they have to the local peasants who like football.  From an athletics standpoint the Pac 12 would have been much healthier if Cal, as a school, was more like Fresno State or San Diego State.

[camel at sea 589]

5 minutes ago, Trojan Man said:

Cal and Stanford will both suck going forward because neither one will play the NIL game.  Of the two I think Stanford has a better chance at having decent seasons in the future because they can attract a certain type of recruit who is a quality football player and whose #1 priority is their education.  Stanford is second to none for education prestige at the P5 level.  Those kinds of recruits aren't sold on the dream of NFL money so a good coach could keep getting them even with subpar NIL money because over a lifetime the value of a Stanford degree will more than make up for the NIL opportunities available to most players.  It's just a matter of convincing 17 y/os to be mature enough to prioritize delayed gratification over money in their pocket right now, but if they're serious about education that's doable.  Even during the Carroll era USC still lost a couple recruits each class the staff really wanted to Stanford and they were horrible back then.

Competitiveness aside, both schools (especially Cal) bring too much boardroom drama so I won't weep if they aren't reunited with USC in the B1G.  I'm happy this is the last year I have to care how Cal's ivory tower bullshit affects USC.  Cal and Stanford are the ringleaders of the mindset that the conference is a country club for administrators and professors to circle jerk about academic rankings instead of a business alliance that maximizes athletic dollars and exposure, which killed the Pac 12.  If the Bay Area schools are invited to the B1G it needs to be as non-voting members because they have proven the way they vote is suicidal to their conference.  Also, you're right about Cal having a bigger fanbase than Stanford but it's still not that big.  Both of them are elitist schools that get a large chunk of their students from out of state or internationally so that puts a limit on the size of their fanbase and how much appeal they have to the local peasants who like football.  From an athletics standpoint the Pac 12 would have been much healthier if Cal, as a school, was more like Fresno State or San Diego State.

I don't disagree with anything you say here.  It's just unusual that a football program that often drew 60K+ and occasionally 70K+, only 15 years ago, might end up left out of a power conference (if the PAC loses 6 more schools and completely rebuilds, it won't be power conference anymore even if it keeps the name.) I mean, it's not *that* long ago that Cal was putting Aaron Rogers and Marshawn Lynch into the league.

But yeah, I don't think there's much TV value at Cal and I wouldn't want to deal with their current leadership.  If they get left out, I'll be very interested to see if there are some changes there.      

[Uncle Nate 2097]

1 hour ago, LTbear said:

This is Big 10 country.

[John80 160]

Aaron Rogers and some other former Cal players have talked about the hostility they have gotten from professors. Cal's administration allows some professors to do whatever they can to sabotage football. You would think Cal would look at a peer school like Michigan and see how a winning program helps the school but they don't care.

[Trojan Man 429]

29 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

I don't disagree with anything you say here.  It's just unusual that a football program that often drew 60K+ and occasionally 70K+, only 15 years ago, might end up left out of a power conference (if the PAC loses 6 more schools and completely rebuilds, it won't be power conference anymore even if it keeps the name.) I mean, it's not *that* long ago that Cal was putting Aaron Rogers and Marshawn Lynch into the league.

But yeah, I don't think there's much TV value at Cal and I wouldn't want to deal with their current leadership.  If they get left out, I'll be very interested to see if there are some changes there.      

It was fun playing Cal in the Tedford years.  I just don't see them returning to that level for a number of institutional reasons.  Cal has nobody but themselves to blame if they are left out.  They have a lot going for them but they also bring a lot of baggage.  There are consequences to being apathetic towards athletics.  One of them is that schools and conferences which care about athletics won't want you to join them.  It will feel odd the first time I see Cal playing in some crappy Pac/MWC hybrid, but being in a conference run by people who know what they are doing and competing against schools that give a fuck about more than just Olympic sports will help me get over it pretty quickly.

[Crockett 517]

2 hours ago, LTbear said:

Still better than Northwestern and Maryland.

[camel at sea 589]

53 minutes ago, John80 said:

Aaron Rogers and some other former Cal players have talked about the hostility they have gotten from professors. Cal's administration allows some professors to do whatever they can to sabotage football. You would think Cal would look at a peer school like Michigan and see how a winning program helps the school but they don't care.

Yeah.  I think the on-campus reaction to being left behind will be interesting.  Does the faculty push for a drop down to FCS?  Or do they make a push to elevate their athletic profile in hopes of an eventual Big Ten invite? 

In the long run, I think the university would regret losing the marketing opportunities that come with major athletics - particularly if their peer universities within the state all have those opportunities.  It might take a quarter of a century for that view to win out, though.

[Josef Pwag 1884]

2 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

TK’s first attempt at designating the Big Ten’s 3 permanent rivalries

What the fuck is this?

[CustersDoctor 585]

So lets say today's rumor about Amazon coming onboard have merit. They are coming on board with the idea of backing OUW to the BIG. The there would be FOUR west coast BIG schools. Amazon would want to be the West Coast late night media provider. If each of the four schools have seven home games a season that's 28 West Coast games a year. There are 13 weeks in a CFB season so Amazon would have a couple of options for late night football every week. If the BIG has NINE conference games a year then Doing the math, the 4 West Coast Schools could have 4-5 home BIG games a year. The four schools between them would host 18 BIG games a seasons. But since you'd want to keep the regional rivalries alive SIX of the 18 home games would be against the other three west coast schools. This would mean there would be one west coast road trip per season for the eastern block schools. Amazon has to calculate if CFB fans are going to sign up for this kind of extra content. Amazon barely got enough subscriber increase for their weekly NFL game, will adding 12 night time BIG games increase the subscriber base enough? Especially when one considers that three of those 12 games west coast games are Northwestern, Rutgers and Maryland. The west coast schools would go East for 4-5 games a year, those would be day games or prime time and the OTA & Cable outlets would carry those games.

[Trojan Man 429]

5 minutes ago, CustersDoctor said:

So lets say today's rumor about Amazon coming onboard have merit. They are coming on board with the idea of backing OUW to the BIG. The there would be FOUR west coast BIG schools. Amazon would want to be the West Coast late night media provider. If each of the four schools have seven home games a season that's 28 West Coast games a year. There are 13 weeks in a CFB season so Amazon would have a couple of options for late night football every week. If the BIG has NINE conference games a year then Doing the math, the 4 West Coast Schools could have 4-5 home BIG games a year. The four schools between them would host 18 BIG games a seasons. But since you'd want to keep the regional rivalries alive SIX of the 18 home games would be against the other three west coast schools. This would mean there would be one west coast road trip per season for the eastern block schools. Amazon has to calculate if CFB fans are going to sign up for this kind of extra content. Amazon barely got enough subscriber increase for their weekly NFL game, will adding 12 night time BIG games increase the subscriber base enough? Especially when one considers that three of those 12 games west coast games are Northwestern, Rutgers and Maryland. The west coast schools would go East for 4-5 games a year, those would be day games or prime time and the OTA & Cable outlets would carry those games.

Unless Amazon is willing to overpay enough to significantly increase everyone else's slice of the pie, something I don't see happening given the valuations of Oregon and Washington along with the current economic climate, what incentive is there for current B1G schools to support this?  I can't see any of them agreeing to more West Coast trips/late night games and streaming for the exact same money they already have locked up with fewer West Coast road trips/late night games and no streaming.  Midwestern and Eastern teams perform poorly when they travel West, which is why they're being so adamant about their football teams not playing at USC and UCLA in the same season.  They'll deal with it once every other year for games in LA but games in Seattle and especially Eugene aren't as appealing.

USC and UCLA certainly would not go for this idea.  Games against Oregon and Washington are not considered must haves by USC or UCLA so from that perspective they won't see value in preserving either series.  What's in it for the LA schools to accept more late night games (something they're trying to minimize) and supercharge two of their stiffest local recruiting competitors when they could have a conference prestige trump card to hammer them with on the recruiting trail?  It's already paying dividends.  UCLA flipped a 5* 2023 QB from Oregon right before Signing Day and he said playing in the B1G was part of the reason for his flip.  Why should USC agree to have its home games on Amazon when most of USC's conference home games will be a lock for a Fox/CBS/NBC window under the deal they already signed?  This idea sounds like Oregon/Washington hopium working through the bargaining stage of grief because all the benefits flow to them and none to the B1G.

[Hurtlocker 2219]

38 minutes ago, CustersDoctor said:

So lets say today's rumor about Amazon coming onboard have merit. They are coming on board with the idea of backing OUW to the BIG. The there would be FOUR west coast BIG schools. Amazon would want to be the West Coast late night media provider. If each of the four schools have seven home games a season that's 28 West Coast games a year. There are 13 weeks in a CFB season so Amazon would have a couple of options for late night football every week. If the BIG has NINE conference games a year then Doing the math, the 4 West Coast Schools could have 4-5 home BIG games a year. The four schools between them would host 18 BIG games a seasons. But since you'd want to keep the regional rivalries alive SIX of the 18 home games would be against the other three west coast schools. This would mean there would be one west coast road trip per season for the eastern block schools. Amazon has to calculate if CFB fans are going to sign up for this kind of extra content. Amazon barely got enough subscriber increase for their weekly NFL game, will adding 12 night time BIG games increase the subscriber base enough? Especially when one considers that three of those 12 games west coast games are Northwestern, Rutgers and Maryland. The west coast schools would go East for 4-5 games a year, those would be day games or prime time and the OTA & Cable outlets would carry those games.

1) No on the subscribers, but they're not paying a billion a year either.   If its just Oregon and Washington, they could probably buy that package for $50-75m/year and use it as a cheap place to test new technologies before implementing them on the NFL.   

2)  The moment this occurs Colorado, Arizona, and Arizona State are in the Big 12, with a knife fight occurring for 16.

3) The remaining four teams add eight from the MWC; likely SDST, UNLV, Boise, Wyoming, Air Force, Nevada, Utah State, and either New Mexico or Colorado State, to form the Conference of Champions 2.0.

[CustersDoctor 585]

15 minutes ago, Trojan Man said:

Unless Amazon is willing to overpay enough to significantly increase everyone else's slice of the pie, something I don't see happening given the valuations of Oregon and Washington along with the current economic climate, what incentive is there for current B1G schools to support this?  I can't see any of them agreeing to more West Coast trips/late night games and streaming for the exact same money they already have locked up with fewer West Coast road trips/late night games and no streaming.  Midwestern and Eastern teams perform poorly when they travel West, which is why they're being so adamant about their football teams not playing at USC and UCLA in the same season.  They'll deal with it once every other year for games in LA but games in Seattle and especially Eugene aren't as appealing.

USC and UCLA certainly would not go for this idea.  Games against Oregon and Washington are not considered must haves by USC or UCLA so from that perspective they won't see value in preserving either series.  What's in it for the LA schools to accept more late night games (something they're trying to minimize) and supercharge two of their stiffest local recruiting competitors when they could have a conference prestige trump card to hammer them with on the recruiting trail?  It's already paying dividends.  UCLA flipped a 5* 2023 QB from Oregon right before Signing Day and he said playing in the B1G was part of the reason for his flip.  Why should USC agree to have its home games on Amazon when most of USC's conference home games will be a lock for a Fox/CBS/NBC window under the deal they already signed?  This idea sounds like Oregon/Washington hopium working through the bargaining stage of grief because all the benefits flow to them and none to the B1G.

The YouTube echo chamber guys who were pushing the Amazon deal today, obviously haven't thought through the implications of adding oregon in washington to the big. What you just wrote makes sense and what I wrote makes sense, I can't see OUW Going to the big.

[bullet 1626]

UW and Oregon means the Big 10 owns the west coast.

They also scoop up the only two remaining western schools with a reasonable shot at an MNC (unless CU resumes its early 70s, 90s glory).  They scoop up one of the 3 top 13 states (NC, VA the others) not already in the P2.

After USC and UCLA, it just makes too much sense.

[bullet 1626]

22 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

1) No on the subscribers, but they're not paying a billion a year either.   If its just Oregon and Washington, they could probably buy that package for $50-75m/year and use it as a cheap place to test new technologies before implementing them on the NFL.   

2)  The moment this occurs Colorado, Arizona, and Arizona State are in the Big 12, with a knife fight occurring for 16.

3) The remaining four teams add eight from the MWC; likely SDST, UNLV, Boise, Wyoming, Air Force, Nevada, Utah State, and either New Mexico or Colorado State, to form the Conference of Champions 2.0.

Under your scenario, I imagine the 4 remaining do anything they can to get into either the ACC or Big 12 as opposed to effectively joining the MWC.

[Hurtlocker 2219]

Just now, bullet said:

Under your scenario, I imagine the 4 remaining do anything they can to get into either the ACC or Big 12 as opposed to effectively joining the MWC.

If they had that pull I'd agree.  But, I don't think they do.

[bullet 1626]

Just now, Hurtlocker said:

If they had that pull I'd agree.  But, I don't think they do.

I don't know if they do either, but they will take a huge paycut to "join" the MWC.  They may accept enough of a discount to get the ACC or Big 12 to bite.

[TKthunder2 5058]

1 hour ago, Josef Pwag said:

What the fuck is this?

Possible line up if big ten 3 permanent rivals that also illustrates the competitive balance by using conference winning percentage from 2014-2022.

Saved all the current rivalries except one but the variance in SOS is pretty drastic.

[Sandbagging Steve 982]

I looked into this at the end of last year. Oregon and UW are worth at least $55 to $70 million a piece. If you factor in additional late-night inventory, which should lead to another TV package, both teams are worth more than that. Then you factor in the fact that both teams will be playing teams with bigger fan bases than in the PAC and their TV numbers will go up significantly. Then there's the fact that the B1G desperately needs more competitive teams that recruit well nationally. It's a no-brainer and will happen at some point in time.

When USC first left the PAC, everyone said UW and UO would follow until they were influenced by reports saying those teams weren't worth much. The story doesn't add up. It is nothing but a leverage play from the B1G and certain B1G teams that don't want the added competition.

 

Oregon and Washington will be added to the B1G sometime in the next 10 years. They may have to take a slightly smaller cut for the first contract simply because the B1G has all the leverage, but they will both carry their own financial weight in that conference.

Anything else is sour grapes by competing fan bases and teams. At the end of the day, money talks.

[Jabberwocky 1666]

I think some influencers at UO and UW are trying to create life in the idea that they are going to the B1G. I also think there are some fans in the B1G that think this would be good for some reason. However, I do not believe that an OU/UW addition is going to happen for quite a long while, if at all. There is no current value in it for the B1G and its members.

Imo, The next move for the B1G is most likely going to be Notre Dame, and some combination of a Florida school (most likely Miami), Georgia Tech, a North Carolina school, and a Virginia school. I think Fox really wants in Florida, Atlanta, and the mid- Atlantic.

[Gidnik 3475]

40 minutes ago, Sandbagging Steve said:

 Oregon and UW are worth at least $55 to $70 million a piece.

not even close.

[USC Traveler 488]

6 hours ago, camel at sea said:

I agree with you, though I do think it's weird to imagine Cal being left out.  They've got a larger local fanbase than Stanford does.  If the Bears don't suck, they can draw 50K+ to football games.  The TV appeal just isn't there, though.  Stanford hiring Harbaugh and going on an extended run may end up pretty fortunate for their program in the long run.  

I see talk about Amazon/Apple getting involved in the B1G, pushing for more expansion there, but there isn't really a reason they couldn't get involved with the Big 12, and less expensively.  If the Big 12 added the 4C + UO/UW, that's more inventory than ESPN/FOX likely have room for.  The rest would go to market and the streamers could bid on it.

Based on attendance and tv ratings over the last 10 years or so, Cal's local fanbase is actually smaller than Stanford's.  The days when Cal drew fans seem to have passed, and I don't see them ever coming back, given the admin's outright hostility to football, the Cal student body, and the culture in Bezerkley.

Stanford's admin is ambivalent about football, but they know it holds value- even for a place like Stanford.  There were a number of articles about how their applications increased substantially when they had it going last decade, which I found stunning when I first read them, given the draw of the degree alone.

But I can see how it could play a big role when kids are choosing between an Ivy league school vs Stanford.  

//

On paper, Cal has the perfect BIG profile- flagship school with elite academics.  But up close, all of the negatives far outweigh the positives for the BIG.  

The BIG will eventually want a school in the Bay Area, given the size of the market, recruiting access and massive BIG alum bases there, but if you're a BIG President wanting to engage with alums in Silicon Valley, it's much easier and infinitely more pleasant to do so on Leland Stanford's Farm than in the shithole that is Berkley.  And with ND and USC wanting Stanford, they will get the call when ND joins.

What's interesting to me is what does Stanford do in the meantime, given that ND will be on their own timetable.

I'm assuming they'll ride it out in the PAC as long as they can, but if they announce they are going independent and have a scheduling agreement with the BIG, we'll know ND is joining sooner rather than later.

 

[USC Traveler 488]

1 hour ago, Sandbagging Steve said:

I looked into this at the end of last year. Oregon and UW are worth at least $55 to $70 million a piece. If you factor in additional late-night inventory, which should lead to another TV package, both teams are worth more than that. Then you factor in the fact that both teams will be playing teams with bigger fan bases than in the PAC and their TV numbers will go up significantly. Then there's the fact that the B1G desperately needs more competitive teams that recruit well nationally. It's a no-brainer and will happen at some point in time.

When USC first left the PAC, everyone said UW and UO would follow until they were influenced by reports saying those teams weren't worth much. The story doesn't add up. It is nothing but a leverage play from the B1G and certain B1G teams that don't want the added competition.

 

Oregon and Washington will be added to the B1G sometime in the next 10 years. They may have to take a slightly smaller cut for the first contract simply because the B1G has all the leverage, but they will both carry their own financial weight in that conference.

Anything else is sour grapes by competing fan bases and teams. At the end of the day, money talks.

According to Bob Thompson, former President of Fox Sports and Oregon grad, he placed Oregon's tv value at $30m/year, and Stanford at $45m/year.

 

Quote

The ex-Fox Sports Network president, Bob Thompson, placed Oregon’s media-rights value at $30 million and Stanford’s at $45 million when I pressed him.

https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-mailbag-deals-with-pac-12s

 

[USC Traveler 488]

54 minutes ago, Gidnik said:

not even close.

Correct.  Those numbers are more in the range of what the two schools are worth together.

If they were worth $70m each, they'd already be in the BIG.

[Texas Wahoo 3627]

2 hours ago, bullet said:

UW and Oregon means the Big 10 owns the west coast.

They also scoop up the only two remaining western schools with a reasonable shot at an MNC (unless CU resumes its early 70s, 90s glory).  They scoop up one of the 3 top 13 states (NC, VA the others) not already in the P2.

After USC and UCLA, it just makes too much sense.

[TKthunder2 5058]

7 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

If they had that pull I'd agree.  But, I don't think they do.

They won’t join the MWC. The PAC12 will have significantly more postseason credits, long term sponsorships, bowl contracts, and it’s still part of the ruling Autonomous 5 within the NCAA. Even if it’s down to just Oregon St the rest of the MWC would ditch San Jose St and Wyoming to join them.

[USC Traveler 488]

6 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

TK’s first attempt at designating the Big Ten’s 3 permanent rivalries

Well done sir- very well done.

You nailed every team except I think USC will get NW and UM will get Rutgers.

I think the BIG will be very sensitive to not having an East Coast team as a permanent rival for USC.  They're not going to want the "student athletes having to fly coast to coast every year" stories in the media, and they won't want the "BIG added USC to play Rutgers ?" jokes either.

LAX-ORD looks much better than LA-EWR on a map.  Also- NW and USC will be the only two private schools in the BIG.

And with UM already playing Rutgers every year, and UM recruiting well in NJ, giving UM Rutgers as their cupcake won't raise any eyebrows.

//

 

All of that said, Rutgers would actually be my first choice for a 3rd rival/cupcake.  Alternately staying in NY and Philly every two years would be great.

So if you're right, I'd be very happy.  I'd much prefer them over someone like IL.  I just can't see it happening.

//

 

The only other potential fly in the ointment to your matrix would be if they made UM-MN rivals (Little Brown Jug).  It's a historic series, but since they haven't played every year since Leaders and Legends ended, I don't think they'll make it annual now, because it would create a ripple effect in the rivals matrix.

The way you have it laid out is pretty much perfect at first glance, and I'll be shocked if it differs substantially from your projection.

[Sandbagging Steve 982]

7 minutes ago, USC Traveler said:

According to Bob Thompson, former President of Fox Sports and Oregon grad, he placed Oregon's tv value at $30m/year, and Stanford at $45m/year.

 

 

Do you really think I haven't read that article??? He worked at FOX, which should tell you all you need to know about his reliability in this matter. 

And John Skipper said the ACC and PAC would make so much money by joining together! It's like magic! It just happens!

Look at the hard numbers, B1G and B1G Network. Look at what Oregon vs. Wisconsin/Iowa/Nebraska is going to bring to the network. Look at how many people live in Seattle and how the B1G Network leverages these situations. It's not hard, but just like politics, you can't just believe whatever you want to believe.

[USC Traveler 488]

1 minute ago, Sandbagging Steve said:

Do you really think I haven't read that article??? He worked at FOX, which should tell you all you need to know about his reliability in this matter. 

And John Skipper said the ACC and PAC would make so much money by joining together! It's like magic! It just happens!

Look at the hard numbers, B1G and B1G Network. Look at what Oregon vs. Wisconsin/Iowa/Nebraska is going to bring to the network. Look at how many people live in Seattle and how the B1G Network leverages these situations. It's not hard, but just like politics, you can't just believe whatever you want to believe.

Actually, I didn't know that you had read it.  Canzano isn't exactly must-read for most of the country.

Considering the fact that Thompson is an Oregon grad, and was talking to Canzano, who is a massive PNW homer, don't you think he'd put as positive of a spin as possible on Oregon's merits ?  The fact that he didn't speaks volumes.

Thamel and some of the Athletic folks have all reported that UW and OU would be dilutive for revenue in the BIG, and that the smaller schools don't want their games pushed onto streaming.

So I have three questions for you:

1. If the PNW schools are worth as much as you think, why haven't they been added already ?

2. Which schools in the BIG are voting to add the PNW schools ?

3. However much BTN will make from being in Seattle, they'll make much more money by being in VA, NC, GA and FL.  There is an opportunity cost to filling up slots with other schools before the BIG gets their shot at the ACC, so why would the BIG add PNW schools before they see who they can get from the ACC ?  

I'll hang up and listen.

 

[TKthunder2 5058]

4 minutes ago, USC Traveler said:

Well done sir- very well done.

You nailed every team except I think USC will get NW and UM will get Rutgers.

I think the BIG will be very sensitive to not having an East Coast team as a permanent rival for USC.  They're not going to want the "student athletes having to fly coast to coast every year" stories in the media, and they won't want the "BIG added USC to play Rutgers ?" jokes either.

LAX-ORD looks much better than LA-EWR on a map.  Also- NW and USC will be the only two private schools in the BIG.

And with UM already playing Rutgers every year, and UM recruiting well in NJ, giving UM Rutgers as their cupcake won't raise any eyebrows.

//

 

All of that said, Rutgers would actually be my first choice for a 3rd rival/cupcake.  Alternately staying in NY and Philly every two years would be great.

So if you're right, I'd be very happy.  I'd much prefer them over someone like IL.  I just can't see it happening.

//

 

The only other potential fly in the ointment to your matrix would be if they made UM-MN rivals (Little Brown Jug).  It's a historic series, but since they haven't played every year since Leaders and Legends ended, I don't think they'll make it annual now, because it would create a ripple effect in the rivals matrix.

The way you have it laid out is pretty much perfect at first glance, and I'll be shocked if it differs substantially from your projection.

Yep, don’t disagree with your takes. Went off existing rivalries and then filled in the blanks. The only current rivalry in that setup that would no longer play every year is Nebraska/Wisconsin who have only played 13 times. All the other old Big Ten rivalries have played 90+ times with the exception of Michigan/Northwestern (76 games, which you point out might be a candidate to be dropped for USC) and Indiana/Michigan State (65). Little Brown Jug was already sacrificed to the realignment gods so I left it alone.

For the expansion schools:

Nebraska gets the two teams it’s played the most historically and UCLA as the Western most of the current B1G footprint.

Maryland gets the only team it can vaguely claim as a rival in Penn St and Rutgers as the Eastern most teams.

Penn State keeps its two big new Big Ten rivalries in Ohio St and Michigan St plus Maryland.

Rutgers gets Maryland and whoever is left.

Fill out the historical and geographically rivals and you basically had multiple games from the Eastern and Western additions plus the Indiana/Purdue/Illinois and a single game from breaking up Nebraska/Wisconsin.

 

For USC (let’s assume you’re right about Northwestern as your 3rd rival) your home schedule would be something like:

Year1: Wisconsin, Ohio St, Purdue, Rutgers, Notre Dame

Year2: UCLA, Northwestern, Michigan, Nebraska, Maryland 

Year 3: Wisconsin, Penn St, Minnesota, Illinois, Notre Dame

Year 4: UCLA, Northwestern, Michigan St, Iowa, Indiana

Two blah games a year, and a weak Year 4 but still not a bad schedule.

[YChang 3531]

7 hours ago, Valmy77 said:

There were 50,000 people there when Cal proved Charlie Strong was a terrible coach in 2016.

I was there that night… what a disaster

[Sandbagging Steve 982]

1 minute ago, USC Traveler said:

Actually, I didn't know that you had read it.  Canzano isn't exactly must-read for most of the country.

Considering the fact that Thompson is an Oregon grad, and was talking to Canzano, who is a massive PNW homer, don't you think he'd put as positive of a spin as possible on Oregon's merits ?  The fact that he didn't speaks volumes.

Thamel and some of the Athletic folks have all reported that UW and OU would be dilutive for revenue in the BIG, and that the smaller schools don't want their games pushed onto streaming.

So I have three questions for you:

1. If the PNW schools are worth as much as you think, why haven't they been added already ?

2. Which schools in the BIG are voting to add the PNW schools ?

3. However much BTN will make from being in Seattle, they'll make much more money by being in VA, NC, GA and FL.  There is an opportunity cost to filling up slots with other schools before the BIG gets their shot at the ACC, so why would the BIG add PNW schools before they see who they can get from the ACC ?  

I'll hang up and listen.

 

Who is voting them in? Money is voting them in! It takes time to get all the selfish, jealous competition on board, but they eventually have no choice. Following realignment, you should know that by now.

Canzano wants UO and UW in the PAC; therefore, he doesn't want them to be worth it for the B1G. Thompson worked at FOX, which has all the leverage right now. PAC is toast and FOX can get Oregon and Washington at a discount for the first contract (whenever that is)

I trust Murphy before anyone else in expansion, but even he will fall for some propaganda. Everyone's source in media (not just sports) has an agenda.

You can simply look at the numbers in Seattle and the price of the B1G Network and see they are worth more than $30 million. You can look at Oregon's TV ratings when they play teams similar to B1G teams and see they are worth quite a bit. And it's been going on for a long time now, through many different coaches. They also recruit at a high level, which brings prestige to the conference. Oregon and UW give the PAC more late games (and the West Coast schools more prime-time games), which will allow the B1G to add another TV package. That's extremely valuable to the league. It will probably be a streaming package and added late games on ESPN, so it will take time to get all whiny programs on board and to figure out the best way to approach the TV packages.

Anyway, I'm too busy to keep going back and forth. It will happen within the next 10 years. Could be any day or it could take a bit to get all the babies in line to vote.

There's nothing in realignment that has been all that surprising. This stuff could easily have been predicted 30 years ago. The only somewhat surprise is Missouri to the SEC, but the B1G turned them down.

Texas and USC were always either starting their league together or going exactly where they ended up. 

The only thing up for grabs right now is where Virginia and UNC end up.

 

[msucolt45 4213]

I was there that night… what a disaster

So was the TCU Head Coach!

Hook’em!!!

[msucolt45 4213]

My BIL purchased his lake house on LBJ ~ 3 years ago, while he was at SMU. Last year he was offered an amount that ~ doubled his purchase, so Hook’em!!! He is a UT grad and I’ll always say it takes “money” to make money!!!

Hook’em!!!

[bullet 1626]

1 hour ago, Texas Wahoo said:

Rutgers is in the NYC metro area.  Syracuse or Buffalo in upstate NY don't do as much.

[bullet 1626]

1 hour ago, TKthunder2 said:

They won’t join the MWC. The PAC12 will have significantly more postseason credits, long term sponsorships, bowl contracts, and it’s still part of the ruling Autonomous 5 within the NCAA. Even if it’s down to just Oregon St the rest of the MWC would ditch San Jose St and Wyoming to join them.

Notice I put quotes around "join."  You add 8 MWC schools and you have "joined" the MWC.

[bullet 1626]

https://www.si.com/college/alabama/bamacentral/sec-commissioner-greg-sankey-elaborates-on-potential-football-schedule-changes-blackwell

Sankey talks about the SEC schedule in 2024.  Does his best not to say anything, but reading between the lines:

They have been studying it a lot and figuring out how to balance the schedule.

They expect to make a decision at their meetings in Destin in a month.

Divisions are going away.

They haven't decided between 8 and 9 games.  They are leaning towards 9.

They think 3 protected rivals can be a lot more balanced than they have now with divisions.

But they are still considering 1 protected rival.  They for some reason are not considering 2 protected rivals.

It isn't decided necessarily that it will be 1-7 or 3-6.  It still could be 1-8 or maybe even 3-5.

 

Personally, I think 1 protected rival is a non-starter for Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Georgia and Florida and detrimental to the conference.

[bullet 1626]

https://www.secsports.com/article/35857432/seven-sec-sports-future-scheduling-formats-approved

They approved 7 sports formats last month for the SEC.  Only football, volleyball and post-season baseball remain.

"...Regular season schedule and championship formats have previously been approved in men's basketball, women's basketball, soccer, men's and women's tennis and softball. The current regular season and championship formats in the sports of men's and women's cross country, equestrian, men's and women's golf and men's and women's outdoor track & field accommodate the addition of Oklahoma and Texas without additional adjustments.

Still to be determined are regular season formats in football and volleyball and the post-season tournament format in baseball.

Baseball

• Regular season: Each season a team will play a three-game series against two permanent opponents and eight rotating opponents, for a total of 30 conference games. Standings will be kept in a single-division format.

• SEC Baseball Tournament:  Format to be determined.

Gymnastics

• Regular season: Each school sponsoring a gymnastics team will meet each other member institution at least once a year on an alternating home and away basis, consistent with the current process.  An additional week will be required to accommodate nine teams.

• SEC Gymnastics Championships: The championship will move from a one-day event to a two-day format. The semifinals will consist of two sessions of four teams each.  The top seed will receive a bye to the championship.  The top seed plus the two session winners in the semifinals and the team with the next highest score in the semifinals will advance to a four-team championship.

Swimming & Diving (Men's and Women's)

• Regular season: The Conference Office will schedule two dual meets per program and each institution is responsible for establishing the dates and times of the meets, consistent with the current process.

• SEC Swimming & Diving Championships:  Same as current format with updated facility requirements.

Indoor Track & Field (Men's and Women's)

• Regular season: Each school sponsoring an indoor track and field team will schedule teams from other Conference institutions at its own discretion, consistent with the current process.

• SEC Indoor Track & Field Championships:  The championship will move from a two-day event to a three-day format.

Volleyball

• Regular season: Format to be determined.

• SEC Volleyball Tournament:  A Conference tournament will be conducted for the first time since 2005.  All Conference teams will participate.  Still to be determined is whether the SEC Volleyball Tournament will resume following the 2024 season or following the 2025 season."

[bullet 1626]

https://www.secsports.com/article/34032021/six-sec-sports-future-scheduling-formats-approved

These 6 were previously approved:

"...Men's Basketball

• Regular season: Each season a team will play two permanent opponents home and away, one rotating opponent home and away, plus the 12 remaining teams in single contests either home or away, for a total of 18 conference games.
• SEC Men's Basketball Tournament: All 16 teams will compete in a single-elimination format, consistent with the current format but with two additional games. The top four seeded teams will continue to receive a bye through the first two rounds of the tournament.

Women's Basketball

• Regular season: Each season a team will play one rotating opponent home and away, plus the 14 remaining teams in single contests either home or away, for a total of 16 conference games.
• SEC Women's Basketball Tournament: All 16 teams will compete in a single-elimination format, consistent with the current format but with two additional games. The top four seeded teams will continue to receive a bye through the first two rounds of the tournament.

Soccer

• Regular season: Soccer will continue to compete in a two-division format. Each season a team will play seven divisional opponents plus three cross-divisional opponents on a rotating basis, for a total of 10 conference games.
• SEC Soccer Championship: 12 teams will compete in a single-elimination format, with the top four seeded teams receiving a first-round bye.

Men's and Women's Tennis

• Regular season: Each team will play a single round robin against all other teams in the conference, consistent with the current format.
• SEC Men's and Women's Tennis Championships: All teams will compete in a single elimination format with the top four seeded teams receiving a bye through the first two rounds of the tournament.

Softball

• Regular season: Each season a team will play a three-game series against eight rotating opponents, for a total of 24 conference games.
• SEC Softball Tournament: All teams will compete in a single-elimination format, consistent with the current format but with two additional games."

[Trojan Man 429]

3 hours ago, CustersDoctor said:

The YouTube echo chamber guys who were pushing the Amazon deal today, obviously haven't thought through the implications of adding oregon in washington to the big. What you just wrote makes sense and what I wrote makes sense, I can't see OUW Going to the big.

I think Washington gets in at some point and Oregon might get in, but neither one will happen until after the ACC is picked apart.  That plus Notre Dame are more important priorities in the B1G's eyes than the PNW schools.  Also remember there were zero leaks or rumors about USC and UCLA going to the B1G before it happened.  They run a tight ship, so be skeptical of anyone claiming there are rumors about Oregon and Washington imminently joining the B1G.  In this case smoke is more likely coming from a smoke machine ran by the Ducks and Huskies than a fire.

47 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

For USC (let’s assume you’re right about Northwestern as your 3rd rival) your home schedule would be something like:

Year1: Wisconsin, Ohio St, Purdue, Rutgers, Notre Dame

Year2: UCLA, Northwestern, Michigan, Nebraska, Maryland 

Year 3: Wisconsin, Penn St, Minnesota, Illinois, Notre Dame

Year 4: UCLA, Northwestern, Michigan St, Iowa, Indiana

Two blah games a year, and a weak Year 4 but still not a bad schedule.

Year 4 is still better than anything short of a really good draw in the Pac 12, which USC is getting in 2023 (Stanford, Arizona, Utah, Washington, UCLA).  All of those hypothetical B1G schedules are much more attractive than the trash conference home schedule USC had for 2022 (Arizona State, Washington State, Cal, Colorado on a Friday night).  As long as it's spaced out so 3/4 years have Ohio State, Michigan or Penn State at the Coliseum I can live with one year being a little down.  There's a good chance at least one of Fickell or Rhule gets his team playing at a level where Nebraska or Wisconsin becomes a big time game so that would also help out.

And those are just the home games.  To keep it simple, assume in this example the road games are mirrored with years 1-2 and years 3-4 to get an idea of the full conference schedule.  There has been some discussion about adding Oregon and Washington for improved competition, but even that only helps Oregon/Washington without bringing any benefit to existing B1G teams.  This conference slate plus Notre Dame will be more than enough for CFP-worthy credentials.  Fewer games against Ohio State and Michigan and Penn State to make room for annual games with Oregon and Washington is counter-productive from the SOS standpoint.  Playing in the Pac 12 was a constant struggle to play enough games against teams voters took seriously and people outside of the conference's footprint watched.  That will no longer be the case in the B1G and I'd like to keep it that way.

[TKthunder2 5058]

9 minutes ago, Trojan Man said:

Year 4 is still better than anything short of a really good draw in the Pac 12, which USC is getting in 2023 (Stanford, Arizona, Utah, Washington, UCLA).  All of those hypothetical B1G schedules are much more attractive than the trash conference home schedule USC had for 2022 (Arizona State, Washington State, Cal, Colorado on a Friday night).  As long as it's spaced out so 3/4 years have Ohio State, Michigan or Penn State at the Coliseum I can live with one year being a little down.  There's a good chance at least one of Fickell or Rhule gets his team playing at a level where Nebraska or Wisconsin becomes a big time game so that would also help out.

I agree the PAC12 like the Big 12 was fucking stupid with scheduling, the fact that you have a good schedule one year and a shit schedule the next is idiotic. The Big 12 isn’t quite that bad, but still…

21: Tech, OSU, KU, K State
22: TCU, Baylor, ISU, WVU

a more balanced slate would have been

TCU, Tech, K State, ISU
OSU, Baylor, WVU, KU

[Texas Wahoo 3627]

1 hour ago, bullet said:

Rutgers is in the NYC metro area.  Syracuse or Buffalo in upstate NY don't do as much.

If you're going to count New York state as included in the Big Ten, you should probably include Virginia as well, as Maryland is bigger in the main population center of Virginia than Rutgers is in New York City.

[bullet 1626]

You have a point.  Didn't realize how much of the DC metro is in Virginia, about half.  But then that 3 million or so is about 1/3 of Virginia while NY MSA is about 2/3 of the population of New York and there is not a P5 state school in NY, only the private Syracuse in upstate, MAC Buffalo in upstate and indie Army.

[BurntOrange&White 41646]

7 hours ago, bullet said:

https://www.si.com/college/alabama/bamacentral/sec-commissioner-greg-sankey-elaborates-on-potential-football-schedule-changes-blackwell

Sankey talks about the SEC schedule in 2024.  Does his best not to say anything, but reading between the lines:

They have been studying it a lot and figuring out how to balance the schedule.

They expect to make a decision at their meetings in Destin in a month.

Divisions are going away.

They haven't decided between 8 and 9 games.  They are leaning towards 9.

They think 3 protected rivals can be a lot more balanced than they have now with divisions.

But they are still considering 1 protected rival.  They for some reason are not considering 2 protected rivals.

It isn't decided necessarily that it will be 1-7 or 3-6.  It still could be 1-8 or maybe even 3-5.

 

Personally, I think 1 protected rival is a non-starter for Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Georgia and Florida and detrimental to the conference.

I think 2-7 makes the most sense, even more so than 3-6. It just allows for more rotation if they decide to go with 9 conference games. 

Edited April 19, 2023 by BurntOrange&White