Realignment talk not going away

[USC Traveler 488]

On 5/10/2023 at 8:01 AM, mdmost said:

It's also about maximizing home games with buy a win teams. I guess we'll see when expansion happens. If you have a shit schedule and lose your conference, might make it tougher than 3 SEC teams who play better OOC opponents. 

I think this is probably for the mid-tier teams in the West and all of the lower-tier teams in the BIG.

With divisions ending and USC/UCLA coming into the conference in 2024, life is about to get a lot harder for Purdue, Iowa, MN, etc, so they're trying to get as many easy OOC wins as possible.  Really sucks if you have season tickets.

With USC always having ND OOC, I don't have any sympathy for top programs avoiding at least one OOC marquee game.  But maybe some of the bigger programs are thinking about going all G5/FCS after seeing UM go to the playoffs two years in a row with a laughable OOC.

Will be interesting to see how OSU and PSU schedule.  UM may keep the cupcakes rolling.

 

 

 

[closetojumping 62,247]

11 minutes ago, USC Traveler said:

I think this is probably for the mid-tier teams in the West and all of the lower-tier teams in the BIG.

With divisions ending and USC/UCLA coming into the conference in 2024, life is about to get a lot harder for Purdue, Iowa, MN, etc, so they're trying to get as many easy OOC wins as possible.  Really sucks if you have season tickets.

With USC always having ND OOC, I don't have any sympathy for top programs avoiding at least one OOC marquee game.  But maybe some of the bigger programs are thinking about going all G5/FCS after seeing UM go to the playoffs two years in a row with a laughable OOC.

Will be interesting to see how OSU and PSU schedule.  UM may keep the cupcakes rolling.

 

 

 

I keep waiting to hear that Ohio State and Michigan have backed out of their home and homes with us from 2024-2027. I guess Fox really wants that 2024 Texas/Michigan game, but given the way Michigan has behaved over the past few years, I still feel like there's risk on it.

[USC Traveler 488]

4 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Washington and Oregon are already vetted by BIG, it's a matter of when, not if they get invited according to this recent information. 

All it is going to take is one of the 4 corner schools to make a move and the PAC as we know it is done. 

If you listen to the interview, he was straddling the fence:  "BIG could take a harder look at UW/UO"  "When and if the BIG decided to add UW/UO".

I still think he is a pawn that is being used by ESPN/B12 to constantly make the 4C schools nervous about UW and UO leaving.

It makes no sense that the BIG has someone leaking info only to McMurphy after adding Corn, RU, MD, USC and UCLA in complete silence.

 Especially when all of the connected BIG reporters keep saying the same thing- ND and the ACC schools are the priority, and they won't even consider further expansion in the West until they know who they can land from the ACC.

 

 

Edited May 11, 2023 by USC Traveler

[USC Traveler 488]

10 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I keep waiting to hear that Ohio State and Michigan have backed out of their home and homes with us from 2024-2027. I guess Fox really wants that 2024 Texas/Michigan game, but given the way Michigan has behaved over the past few years, I still feel like there's risk on it.

Agreed.  I would have bet on them cancelling if the game hadn't been such a big part of the settlement to let UT and OU go SEC a year early.

Because it was integral to getting that deal done, and with FOX owning over 60% of BTN, I'd be shocked if that game got cancelled.

[Trojan Man 429]

24 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I keep waiting to hear that Ohio State and Michigan have backed out of their home and homes with us from 2024-2027. I guess Fox really wants that 2024 Texas/Michigan game, but given the way Michigan has behaved over the past few years, I still feel like there's risk on it.

 

18 minutes ago, USC Traveler said:

Agreed.  I would have bet on them cancelling if the game hadn't been such a big part of the settlement to let UT and OU go SEC a year early.

Because it was integral to getting that deal done, and with FOX owning over 60% of BTN, I'd be shocked if that game got cancelled.

I think it's unnecessary West Coast travel B1G teams are trying to cut down on, not all noncon opponents with a pulse.  They really struggle heading west, another reason I don't think Oregon and Washington will be seriously considered for B1G membership until after the ACC is raided.  Michigan's 2022 and 2023 noncon schedules are garbage because they backed out of a home and home with UCLA.  Ohio State canceled a 2024-25 home and home with Washington.  The 2024 game was scheduled for Seattle, which leads me to believe the Buckeyes received advance warning they're getting a conference road game in LA in 2024.

I doubt those two will cancel their other big time noncon games.  One, it's a bigger deal to play Texas than Washington or UCLA.  Ohio State/Michigan vs Texas could break 10M viewers like Alabama/Texas did.  Buckeyes/Wolverines vs Washington or UCLA would still be a good draw but not that good.  Two, playing in Texas is easier travel than Washington and UCLA for Ohio State/Michigan and time zones won't be an issue.  Three, the expanded playoff means a noncon quality loss isn't that big of a deal.  If Michigan loses to Texas, drops a random conference game and wins the B1G they're still getting a top 4 bye seed.  If that same scenario plays out but they lose the CCG they're getting an at large bid.  If they lose two conference games to go 9-3 and miss the CCG they still might sneak in depending on their wins and losses and how things play out elsewhere.

I suspect part of the recent scheduling dust up in the B1G is due to uncertainty over what the next few years of conference schedules will look like.  I know the B1G publicly released their conference schedules in chunks of 5 or 6 years after they grew to 12 and then 14 teams because I remember being jealous of them for knowing that far out who they'd play and when they would play them while the Pac 12 didn't create schedules with more than a season's notice.  I think once they work out permanent opponents and rotations they'll do the same for the remainder of the decade, which will let everyone know which years they'll only have 4 conference home games and when they need to work around West Coast road games.  That will make noncon scheduling easier.

[camel at sea 589]

1 hour ago, USC Traveler said:

If you listen to the interview, he was straddling the fence:  "BIG could take a harder look at UW/UO"  "When and if the BIG decided to add UW/UO".

I still think he is a pawn that is being used by ESPN/B12 to constantly make the 4C schools nervous about UW and UO leaving.

It makes no sense that the BIG has someone leaking info only to McMurphy after adding Corn, RU, MD, USC and UCLA in complete silence.

 Especially when all of the connected BIG reporters keep saying the same thing- ND and the ACC schools are the priority, and they won't even consider further expansion in the West until they know who they can land from the ACC.

The connected B1G media guys didn't know about SC/UCLA/Nebraska/Rutgers/Maryland ahead of time.  I'm not sure how much weight to put into their collective insight.

McMurphy isn't the only guy pushing the Oregon/Washington to Big Ten talk.  Dennis Dodd said something similar recently for CBS, as did Connor Morrissette for SI.  The PAC PR people are arguing that the media leaks are being organized by Endeavor Media.  If so, then the question is whether Endeavor is working for the Big 12, the Big Ten, another media entity, or maybe all of the above.  I know initially FOX was putting the 4C to Big 12 stuff out there via Joel Klatt.  FOX isn't bidding on the PAC rights, and hasn't been for a while, so I think it's at least possible that the reason is a preference at FOX to see the PAC broken up.

It makes sense to me that the B1G Presidents would rather not have the PAC's blood on its hands.  If the 4C jump, then they won't - even if they provide a landing spot or Oregon and Washington in that aftermath.  I think there are plenty of reasons for SC/UCLA and especially the B1G West schools to not want the Ducks and Huskies in the B1G as recruiting competition.  But maybe there's a way to make scheduling / travel more palatable by including those two and that is viewed as a sufficient offset.  I don't know.

Edited May 11, 2023 by camel at sea

[USC Traveler 488]

3 hours ago, camel at sea said:

The connected B1G media guys didn't know about SC/UCLA/Nebraska/Rutgers/Maryland ahead of time.  I'm not sure how much weight to put into their collective insight.

McMurphy isn't the only guy pushing the Oregon/Washington to Big Ten talk.  Dennis Dodd said something similar recently for CBS, as did Connor Morrissette for SI.  The PAC PR people are arguing that the media leaks are being organized by Endeavor Media.  If so, then the question is whether Endeavor is working for the Big 12, the Big Ten, another media entity, or maybe all of the above.  I know initially FOX was putting the 4C to Big 12 stuff out there via Joel Klatt.  FOX isn't bidding on the PAC rights, and hasn't been for a while, so I think it's at least possible that the reason is a preference at FOX to see the PAC broken up.

It makes sense to me that the B1G Presidents would rather not have the PAC's blood on its hands.  If the 4C jump, then they won't - even if they provide a landing spot or Oregon and Washington in that aftermath.  I think there are plenty of reasons for SC/UCLA and especially the B1G West schools to not want the Ducks and Huskies in the B1G as recruiting competition.  But maybe there's a way to make scheduling / travel more palatable by including those two and that is viewed as a sufficient offset.  I don't know.

You make a good point about no one else knowing about SC/UCLA/Nebraska/Rutgers/Maryland ahead of time.A

As you know, I'm no fan of the PAC, but I do think Dodds and McMurphy are pawns for some combo of ESPN/Fox/B12 disinformation.  They have consistently kept pounding away for 9-10 months about UW and UO going to the BIG.  They keep re-running various versions of the same story, but nothing ever happens.

The first question to ask about a leak is who benefits from that leak ?  Especially with the BIG, where there were no leaks around other expansion moves.

ESPN/FOX/B12 benefit the most from these consistent leaks around UW/UO to the BIG, as the more unstable the PAC is, the more likely some of the 4C are to jump to the B12.  Combine that with Fox not engaging with the PAC and ESPN lowballing them , and they are creating a situation where it will force some of the 4C to jump if they want to stay relevant, given the lack of alternatives for a PAC media deal.

[TKthunder2 4,981]

7 hours ago, camel at sea said:

Eh, I'm not so sure.  They need to  be in a conference for Olympics, either way.  Putting together a football indie schedule as an indie would be very challenging, given the unknowns with scheduling in other conferences moving forward.  The path of least resistance is to keep the PAC going, but to place a heavy emphasis on academic quality of the expansion candidates.  That cuts in favor of Rice and Tulane getting invited.  SDSU, Colorado State, and SMU all appear to be acceptable given that there have been a lot of PAC trial balloons about all three.  From there's it's just a question of how to fill out the roster.

If it were me in their shoes, I'd end up here:

West:  WaSU, OrSU, Stanford, Cal, SDSU, Hawaii (football only)
East:    Wyo, CSU, Air Force, SMU, Rice, Tulane

That's a good amount of inventory for a streaming partner, in multiple time zones.  The West division should be pretty familiar-feeling for the old guard PAC schools.   The East is academically pretty solid (maybe you flip one or two of those for someone else, depending on priorities.)  I think you'd have a good shot to land Gonzaga as an everything-but-football member to boost men's basketball. 

If Stanford and Cal stay the PAC expansion will be as minimal as it can be.

WaSU, OrSU, Stanford, Cal

+SDSU - to keep them relevant in SoCal

+SMU, Rice, Tulane - smart formerly SWC/SEC private schools that have fb history and allow them to hold their nose over the rest of the MWC “riff raff” like Boise, Fresno, and UNLV.

This gets them 7 games. The original PAC teams will get their rivalry games for 8 then they just need 1 more to fill out a schedule. Maybe they bring in Hawaii fb but I doubt it as Stanford probably wants the flexibility to play USC and ND annually plus 3 other OOC games.

[USC Traveler 488]

4 hours ago, camel at sea said:

It makes sense to me that the B1G Presidents would rather not have the PAC's blood on its hands.  If the 4C jump, then they won't - even if they provide a landing spot or Oregon and Washington in that aftermath.  I think there are plenty of reasons for SC/UCLA and especially the B1G West schools to not want the Ducks and Huskies in the B1G as recruiting competition.  But maybe there's a way to make scheduling / travel more palatable by including those two and that is viewed as a sufficient offset.  I don't know.

Didn't edit the other post fast enough, so I'll add this.

As far as travel issues, if we were talking about Stanford, Cal or ASU, those would be a huge help with travel.  But the PNW schools aren't much shorter trips than the BIG West schools, so there's much of a positive there, whereas it's clear the BIG schools don't want to go to the West Coast too often.

On the schedule front, I'm convinced the BIG will be very selective about going to 18, as they'd need to add a 10th game to keep the same rotation they will have in 2024.  The 3-6-6 would become a 3-7-7.  ND is worth that, and much more, but the PNW schools don't bring anywhere near that value.

This is what I think, but ultimately, I don't know either.  We might be two of the only people on the internet willing to say that.✌️ 

It's going to be fascinating to see it all play out.

[hook me 2,080]

16 hours ago, Trojan Man said:

 

I think it's unnecessary West Coast travel B1G teams are trying to cut down on, not all noncon opponents with a pulse.  They really struggle heading west, another reason I don't think Oregon and Washington will be seriously considered for B1G membership until after the ACC is raided.  Michigan's 2022 and 2023 noncon schedules are garbage because they backed out of a home and home with UCLA.  Ohio State canceled a 2024-25 home and home with Washington.  The 2024 game was scheduled for Seattle, which leads me to believe the Buckeyes received advance warning they're getting a conference road game in LA in 2024.

I doubt those two will cancel their other big time noncon games.  One, it's a bigger deal to play Texas than Washington or UCLA.  Ohio State/Michigan vs Texas could break 10M viewers like Alabama/Texas did.  Buckeyes/Wolverines vs Washington or UCLA would still be a good draw but not that good.  Two, playing in Texas is easier travel than Washington and UCLA for Ohio State/Michigan and time zones won't be an issue.  Three, the expanded playoff means a noncon quality loss isn't that big of a deal.  If Michigan loses to Texas, drops a random conference game and wins the B1G they're still getting a top 4 bye seed.  If that same scenario plays out but they lose the CCG they're getting an at large bid.  If they lose two conference games to go 9-3 and miss the CCG they still might sneak in depending on their wins and losses and how things play out elsewhere.

I suspect part of the recent scheduling dust up in the B1G is due to uncertainty over what the next few years of conference schedules will look like.  I know the B1G publicly released their conference schedules in chunks of 5 or 6 years after they grew to 12 and then 14 teams because I remember being jealous of them for knowing that far out who they'd play and when they would play them while the Pac 12 didn't create schedules with more than a season's notice.  I think once they work out permanent opponents and rotations they'll do the same for the remainder of the decade, which will let everyone know which years they'll only have 4 conference home games and when they need to work around West Coast road games.  That will make noncon scheduling easier.

I think it's UM & OSU being a bunch of bitches. Time zones are a bullshit excuse unless you're talking about WC teams traveling to EC schools & playing early games. Other than that, 18-22 y/o athletes are perfectly capable of traveling just like USC & UCLA will be doing.

[billfromlaketravis 11,362]

13 hours ago, USC Traveler said:

Didn't edit the other post fast enough, so I'll add this.

As far as travel issues, if we were talking about Stanford, Cal or ASU, those would be a huge help with travel.  But the PNW schools aren't much shorter trips than the BIG West schools, so there's much of a positive there, whereas it's clear the BIG schools don't want to go to the West Coast too often.

On the schedule front, I'm convinced the BIG will be very selective about going to 18, as they'd need to add a 10th game to keep the same rotation they will have in 2024.  The 3-6-6 would become a 3-7-7.  ND is worth that, and much more, but the PNW schools don't bring anywhere near that value.

This is what I think, but ultimately, I don't know either.  We might be two of the only people on the internet willing to say that.✌️ 

It's going to be fascinating to see it all play out.

By golly, he's right. 

LAX to Seattle : 2 hours 50 minutes

LAX to Milwaukee : 3 hours 45 minutes

LAX to Des Moines : 3 hours 13 minutes

LAX to Omaha : 3 hours 4 minutes

[Al_4_ISU 12,409]

9 minutes flight difference between Omaha and Des Moines.

Drive time, that's 2 hours of screaming at truckers cock blocking I-80 while governed at 65MPH

[billfromlaketravis 11,362]

I kind of hated the media reaction to USC and UCLA leaving for the Big Ten. USC at Rutgers was the most common/laziest example. It'll happen eventually, but what we're talking about in most cases is West Coast schools flying to the Midwest. 

Hell Austin to almost every SEC East town is 2+ hours. 

[USC Traveler 488]

38 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

By golly, he's right. 

LAX to Seattle : 2 hours 50 minutes

LAX to Milwaukee : 3 hours 45 minutes

LAX to Des Moines : 3 hours 13 minutes

LAX to Omaha : 3 hours 4 minutes

Yes sir.  

Meanwhile, LAX-SFO, LAX-OAK, and LAX-PHX are all around 90 minutes.

Stanford will eventually get in, and that will guarantee USC and UCLA one road game on the West Coast every year.  That actually helps with travel.

Cal fits the BIG profile to a T as an academic institution, but their admin's hostility to football and bad on-field product will keep them out.

ASU is in a great tv market, but their academics make them a non-starter.  That's unfortunate.  I had some memorable trips to Scottsdale when I was single.

 

[USC Traveler 488]

8 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I kind of hated the media reaction to USC and UCLA leaving for the Big Ten. USC at Rutgers was the most common/laziest example. It'll happen eventually, but what we're talking about in most cases is West Coast schools flying to the Midwest. 

Hell Austin to almost every SEC East town is 2+ hours. 

Yeah-  that narrative is one of the reasons I don't think either of the LA schools is going to get a permanent rival on Eastern Time.

Especially with UM, OSU, PSU and MSU all playing 2 of the other 3, none of them are going to want USC as a 3rd fixed rival.

At that point, it's either RU, MD or IU.  The schools on the East Coast aren't worth the negative media spin.

Corn, Wiscy, etc make much more sense.

UCLA-Purdue (Wooden connection) or UCLA-IU (Bball schools) would work, as people think of IN as midwest, even though it's mostly on ET, but those are the only schools on ET that would make sense.  

I think USC gets Wiscy and NW, while UCLA gets Corn and Purdue.

 

[gatormarc 904]

1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I kind of hated the media reaction to USC and UCLA leaving for the Big Ten. USC at Rutgers was the most common/laziest example. It'll happen eventually, but what we're talking about in most cases is West Coast schools flying to the Midwest. 

Hell Austin to almost every SEC East town is 2+ hours. 

There is a notable difference though.

The shortest flight for the LA schools to the current B1G is 3.5 hours to Nebraska. The longest flight for Texas to the current SEC is under 3 hours to Florida.

And it's not just football you are handling for that, but all of the other sports too.

Edited May 12, 2023 by gatormarc

[BurntOrange&White 39,661]

10 minutes ago, gatormarc said:

There is a notable difference though.

The shortest flight for the LA schools to the current B1G is 3.5 hours to Nebraska. The longest flight for Texas to the current SEC is under 3 hours to Florida.

And it's not just football you are handling for that, but all of the other sports too.

Who gives a shit, most classes are online or can be completed online. Geography as an excuse in 2023 is just lazy.

 

 

Nobody bitches about Miami to Boston, Tallahassee to Boston.

 

Edited May 12, 2023 by BurntOrange&White

[ImissWallyPryor 9,045]

1 hour ago, USC Traveler said:

I think USC gets Wiscy and NW, while UCLA gets Corn and Purdue.

Why not Minny for UCLA? The bus drive from the airport to NU and especially Purdue can’t be ignored. Same for Iowa, as that drive from Des Moines to Iowa City always seems longer than it is. And NW for USC doesn’t seem as “footbally” as some other options, regardless of NW’s overachievements. 

Edited May 12, 2023 by ImissWallyPryor

[Al_4_ISU 12,409]

7 minutes ago, ImissWallyPryor said:

Why not Minny for UCLA? The bus drive from the airport to NU and especially Purdue can’t be ignored. Same for Iowa, as that drive from Des Moines to Iowa City always seems longer than it is. And NW for USC doesn’t seem as “footbally” as some other options, regardless of NW’s overachievements. 

You're damn right it does - thanks to those fuckwad truckers I described a few posts back.

[gatormarc 904]

10 minutes ago, ImissWallyPryor said:

Why not Minny for UCLA? The bus drive from the airport to NU and especially Purdue can’t be ignored. Same for Iowa, as that drive from Des Moines to Iowa City always seems longer than it is. And NW for USC doesn’t seem as “footbally” as some other options, regardless of NW’s overachievements. 

Wait... wouldn't they fly directly into Iowa City, Lafayette, etc?

[Al_4_ISU 12,409]

2 minutes ago, gatormarc said:

Wait... wouldn't they fly directly into Iowa City, Lafayette, etc?

Iowa City has a tiny airport.  Probably use Cedar Rapids 

[gatormarc 904]

2 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Iowa City has a tiny airport.  Probably use Cedar Rapids 

Cedar Rapids seems reasonable.

[DFW Horn 6,118]

8 minutes ago, gatormarc said:

Wait... wouldn't they fly directly into Iowa City, Lafayette, etc?

Not for the non-revenue sports, they won't.

[USC Traveler 488]

20 minutes ago, ImissWallyPryor said:

Why not Minny for UCLA? The bus drive from the airport to NU and especially Purdue can’t be ignored. Same for Iowa, as that drive from Des Moines to Iowa City always seems longer than it is. And NW for USC doesn’t seem as “footbally” as some other options, regardless of NW’s overachievements. 

I figured MN would get Wiscy, Iowa and Neb as their teams, but maybe that was a mistake ?

I've thought about airports for fan travel, but hadn't thought of airport issues for the teams, as they'll all be flying charter.

For the olympic sports, they've talked about multiple sports flying on the same charter, and there has even been talk of USC and UCLA sharing some charters.

As for USC-NW, I think every top tier BIG school will get a cupcake, and with USC and NW being the only two private schools in the BIG, and both being in big cities, it seems like a good fit.  USC fans are already talking about an annual trip to Chicago if we get NW and the BIG alternates @NW with our @ND years.

 

[Deej 76,568]

2 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I kind of hated the media reaction to USC and UCLA leaving for the Big Ten. USC at Rutgers was the most common/laziest example. It'll happen eventually, but what we're talking about in most cases is West Coast schools flying to the Midwest. 

Hell Austin to almost every SEC East town is 2+ hours. 

and 5 or 6 decades back in time. 

[ImissWallyPryor 9,045]

1 hour ago, USC Traveler said:

I've thought about airports for fan travel, but hadn't thought of airport issues for the teams, as they'll all be flying charter.

Silly me, thinking that football teams would fly commercial.

I’ll banish myself. 

Edited May 12, 2023 by ImissWallyPryor

[CustersDoctor 584]

This guy died. I mention it here because we were discussing him on this thread about a month ago 

[Richard Kimball 1,492]

37 minutes ago, CustersDoctor said:

This guy died. I mention it here because we were discussing him on this thread about a month ago 

Yeah, I used to listen to him for the entertainment value, not because he really knew anything. 

Found out after he died from one of the other sports bloggers that he had a chronic long term disease, and had lost a child. His life was college football, that basement and his youtube channel. Wish I'd sent the son of a bitch a helmet. 

[Hurtlocker 2,208]

8 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Iowa City has a tiny airport.  Probably use Cedar Rapids 

CID is like landing on the parking lot. I've never gotten through security quicker.   Even MBS or CHO or LEX took longer.

[billfromlaketravis 11,362]

I imagine we'll see some non-revenue sport travel belly aching from a UCLA or USC student-athlete in The Players' Tribune. College football and basketball essentially operate as professional sports. We won't hear a peep from them. 

[bullet 1,596]

On 5/12/2023 at 3:02 PM, gatormarc said:

There is a notable difference though.

The shortest flight for the LA schools to the current B1G is 3.5 hours to Nebraska. The longest flight for Texas to the current SEC is under 3 hours to Florida.

And it's not just football you are handling for that, but all of the other sports too.

And that extra hour of Milwaukee vs. Seattle adds up.  After a certain point, if any of you have flown much, it starts to get wearing.  It also makes it more difficult to get back or leave at a reasonable hour.

[TKthunder2 4,981]

1 hour ago, bullet said:

And that extra hour of Milwaukee vs. Seattle adds up.  After a certain point, if any of you have flown much, it starts to get wearing.  It also makes it more difficult to get back or leave at a reasonable hour.

Changing multiple time zones is also an added complication.

[Hurtlocker 2,208]

So, this is buzzing:

 

 

Quote

It's been over a year since I've had the opportunity to get the inside of college athletics, Big Ten, and other topics. In this tweet, I have shared what I am allowed to know.

"There are conversations to create a 60-team breakaway" Last spring I shared information about breakaway conversations of 24 to 30 schools. Over the last year, the conversation of a breakaway has only gotten stronger and more likely, but what that looks like is still being worked out.

With the new Big Ten leadership, Tony P. would prefer to work with other conferences than do what Kevin W. wanted to do. Thus, the breakaway is more likely to be 60-teams for football only compared to the information from more than a year ago, or the P2 stuff I have been posting about. A P2 breakaway is still possible too.

The timing of this is unclear. If a 60-team breakaway does happen, who are the 8 schools that will get left behind? That is the big unknown right now. The Big Ten would prefer to make their way to 20 schools with Notre Dame and three ACC schools. Yes there is some interest in other Pac-12 schools but more/stronger interest in the ACC schools. A lot of tough choices will be coming for the Big Ten. With that said, I can share that FOX, CBS and NBC would LOVE to get Florida State into the Big Ten. That is the biggest piece of information that I learned today, IMO. There have been conversations.

As things stand with Notre Dame and NBC right now, Notre Dame is not getting the money they have requested. Notre Dame has been talking to the Big Ten and SEC.

One of the desires for the SEC is to get UNC and Virginia so they can continue to expand their footprint in a regional manner. They have no interest in going west. Right now there are 7 ACC schools willing to vote yes on the dissolution of the ACC - and yes that 7th school is Notre Dame. Publically they will not say that. The 7 schools: FSU, Miami, Clemson, UNC, NC State, VA Tech, Notre Dame. There are four schools pushing aggressively for unequal revenue sharing - FSU, UNC, Clemson, and Miami. There are some schools in the ACC that don't want unequal revenue sharing to happen. Thus, it is becoming more and more likely that the ACC will crack and some big news will start to come out next week and throughout the summer.

There will be ACC schools that go to the Big 12. $120M to exit the ACC. I personally don't expect this to get to the courts. Other conferences would prefer it not get to that level since they themselves will want/need the protection too. NBC will have two night games a year for Notre Dame and NBC wants both of those games to be against Big Ten teams - Notre Dame vs USC will likely become a "protected" NBC game like FOX has with Michigan vs Ohio State. The Cal Regents are creating a new committee this month that will work with UCLA and other schools around student welfare.

You can expect a growing relationship between CBS and the Big Ten. Tony P. has a lot of relationships with CBS executives and some of his former bosses are still at CBS. You will see growth in women's sports under Tony P. Big Ten and SEC schools are hiring away G5 AD's to fill senior roles that pay $300k to 500K a year.

For the ACC schools:

Notr Dame: Big Ten

Virginia: Big Ten or SEC 

Virginia Tech: Big Ten or SEC 

Georgia Tech: Big 12 or Big Ten

Clemson: Big Ten or SEC

Florida State: Big Ten or SEC

Miami: Big Ten or SEC

North Carolina: Big Ten or SEC 

North Carolina State: If UNC goes to the Big Ten, NC St will go to the SEC 

Duke: Big 12

Louisville: Big 12

Pitt: Big 12

The Big Ten will move to an employee, profit sharing model sooner than later.  In terms of the Big Ten, as mentioned above, it's going to be what does the Big Ten decide to do to the path of 20. Personally, I would prefer the ACC schools and then Oregon and Washington can go to the Big 12.  RE: Pac-12. I don't know what will happen out west even after today's conversation. That is a situation that we just have to wait and see what happens.

 

[Al_4_ISU 12,409]

So if I’m reading that right the idea is basically 20 team Big 10, SEC, and Big 12?

I think that Duke, Pitt, and Louisville in the Big 12 makes a ton of sense.

It appears that the thought is SEC is the football league, Big 12 is the basketball league, and Big 10 is the balanced one.

it all makes sense, but I also just don’t see it happening anytime soon

[notre dame joe 172]

A 60 team league with three fugly conferences?  FU off-season. 

[Al_4_ISU 12,409]

If they don’t let the mid majors into the basketball tournament, it’s going to be boring as hell

[billfromlaketravis 11,362]

I wish the Big Ten and the SEC would stay at 16 and tell others to go screw. The only thing that would really shake things up is Notre Dame joining the Big Ten. 
 

It’s entirely possible for every team to play each other every other year. The NFL can’t even sell that. 
 

Knight leaking bullshit to the media is only going to work for so long. At some point, the West Coast talking heads will acknowledge Big Ten expansion is on hold until Notre Dame makes a move. It might be a long time as The Athletic needs to sell some subs. Hope porn is getting Oregon and UW through the week. 

Edited May 13, 2023 by billfromlaketravis

[camel at sea 589]

33 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

So, this is buzzing:

 

 

 

For the long-time CR followers, Genetics56 is one and the same as NebFaninWi.  The board owner over at DirtBurglars banned her for trolling / creating multiple accounts, and he said her posts were coming from Chicago (with the implication being that she worked for the Big Ten.)  Either way, she appears to be part of some kind of pro Big Ten internet spin operation, either officially or unofficially. 

None of that means the stuff in the twitter thread is inaccurate.  But there may be some ulterior motives for putting that narrative out there.        

[TKthunder2 4,981]

6 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

If they don’t let the mid majors into the basketball tournament, it’s going to be boring as hell

People say this shit all the time but the numbers don’t lie. Other than watching the final minutes of a midmajor upset, no one watches those games.

This year should have been the wet dream of everyone who loves the underdog aspect of the tournament, with only a single P5 team making the final four…and guess what…

https://nypost.com/2023/04/04/mens-march-madness-final-tv-ratings-hit-record-low/

https://thespun.com/college-hoops/sports-world-reacts-to-mens-final-four-television-ratings

Forth lowest final four ever (only saved from last place due to the Miami/UConn game) and the LOWEST men’s basketball championship game ever recorded by Neilson.

I get it, unpopular opinion but the mid majors are costing the P5 teams money, it’s a simple fact and a weird inverse.

Nobody watches mid major games (omitting some Big East teams and Gonzaga) until the final minutes if they have a realistic chance at an upset. If the upset happens then sport writers (and now social media) romanticize the “underdog” story and hype it after the fact.

The problem is that after the fact doesn’t make money for the broadcasters and advertisers. The games that make the most money are your 8/9 games between mid level ACC and Big 12 teams that people watch from beginning to end, but those aren’t as fun to write about or read about nationally the next day.

Sports journalists love the underdog but the broadcasters do not (see this year as a reason why) because no one will watch their next game either, they just assume they’ll lose so why tune in.

An all P5 tournament would get higher ratings for the broadcasters, which allows them to sell more commercials, and in turn allows the schools to make more money..,and that’s before accounting for the fact that the P5 makes less than 1/3 of the payout while accounting for nearly half the field. Just doubling their take home would be a win before you even factor in the higher ratings/advertising.

You could expand it to include all FBS and the Big East but then you could still end up with the same stinker of a final four that we had this year. But even so that new setup would still drive higher ratings overall.

Either way the basketball tournament is in for a shake up in the coming years and the underdog fans likely will not be pleased with the changes.

[TKthunder2 4,981]

7 hours ago, notre dame joe said:

A 60 team league with three fugly conferences?  FU off-season. 

If you assume everyone is at 16 (meaning the Big 12 has added the 4C schools) then their are only 12 spots and that list contained exactly 12 but didn’t include Oregon, Washington, Stanford, or Cal.

If the Big 12 hadn’t expanded then those numbers could be really clean, but it never works that way in real life.

I do think Syracuse, Boston College, and Wake Forest are most likely to be left out though. Maybe they join up with the Big East and get them to a nice 16 team league as well with STL or VCU.

If ND joins anytime soon my money would be on them going to the Big Ten with Stanford, Oregon, and Washington. Leaving the ACC intact for now. SEC eventually takes FSU/Clemson/UNC/UVA then the ACC can still backfill with WVU/Cincy/UCF/UConn and the Big 12 grabs Memphis/Tulane/SDSU/Cal.

That gets you to 4 conferences of 72, not 60. The only way we go down to 60 is if the SEC/B1G say fuck everyone else and just do an NFL type Super Bowl both expanding to 30 each, or if there is a true breakaway league formed with the biggest brands, cutting away the Mississippi States and Purdues of the world where invites are strategically considered by the blueblood/near bluebloods and TV partners looking at markets, ratings, history, and growth potential.

[DFW Horn 6,118]

7 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

People say this shit all the time but the numbers don’t lie. Other than watching the final minutes of a midmajor upset, no one watches those games.

This year should have been the wet dream of everyone who loves the underdog aspect of the tournament, with only a single P5 team making the final four…and guess what…

https://nypost.com/2023/04/04/mens-march-madness-final-tv-ratings-hit-record-low/

https://thespun.com/college-hoops/sports-world-reacts-to-mens-final-four-television-ratings

Forth lowest final four ever (only saved from last place due to the Miami/UConn game) and the LOWEST men’s basketball championship game ever recorded by Neilson.

I get it, unpopular opinion but the mid majors are costing the P5 teams money, it’s a simple fact and a weird inverse.

Nobody watches mid major games (omitting some Big East teams and Gonzaga) until the final minutes if they have a realistic chance at an upset. If the upset happens then sport writers (and now social media) romanticize the “underdog” story and hype it after the fact.

The problem is that after the fact doesn’t make money for the broadcasters and advertisers. The games that make the most money are your 8/9 games between mid level ACC and Big 12 teams that people watch from beginning to end, but those aren’t as fun to write about or read about nationally the next day.

Sports journalists love the underdog but the broadcasters do not (see this year as a reason why) because no one will watch their next game either, they just assume they’ll lose so why tune in.

An all P5 tournament would get higher ratings for the broadcasters, which allows them to sell more commercials, and in turn allows the schools to make more money..,and that’s before accounting for the fact that the P5 makes less than 1/3 of the payout while accounting for nearly half the field. Just doubling their take home would be a win before you even factor in the higher ratings/advertising.

You could expand it to include all FBS and the Big East but then you could still end up with the same stinker of a final four that we had this year. But even so that new setup would still drive higher ratings overall.

Either way the basketball tournament is in for a shake up in the coming years and the underdog fans likely will not be pleased with the changes.

Money talks, bullshit walks?

[FartingDreamer 138]

8 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

If ND joins anytime soon my money would be on them going to the Big Ten with Stanford, Oregon, and Washington. Leaving the ACC intact for now. SEC eventually takes FSU/Clemson/UNC/UVA then the ACC can still backfill with WVU/Cincy/UCF/UConn and the Big 12 grabs Memphis/Tulane/SDSU/Cal.

 

I can't see WVU Cincy and UCF leaving the Big 12 for the ACC (not saying it wouldn't happen) just that it seems highly unlikely given the ACC's current media rights and GOR's deals.  Cal would go independent before joining the Big 12 due to its academic and cultural snobbery.  

[TKthunder2 4,981]

19 minutes ago, FartingDreamer said:

I can't see WVU Cincy and UCF leaving the Big 12 for the ACC (not saying it wouldn't happen) just that it seems highly unlikely given the ACC's current media rights and GOR's deals.  Cal would go independent before joining the Big 12 due to its academic and cultural snobbery.  

I agree. Currently there is no reason for West Virginia or whoever to join the ACC, but if FSU/Clemson and others leave you’d have to assume the media rights are addressed. I wouldn’t think the Big 12 will fight too hard to keep them if both leagues want to make their footprints more regionalized.

I think Cal with their stadium debt won’t stay all high and mighty once Stanford abandons them. Going independent isn’t feasible for them so unless a Big Ten invite comes they swallow their pride.

[FartingDreamer 138]

2 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

I agree. Currently there is no reason for West Virginia or whoever to join the ACC, but if FSU/Clemson and others leave you’d have to assume the media rights are addressed. I wouldn’t think the Big 12 will fight too hard to keep them if both leagues want to make their footprints more regionalized.

I think Cal with their stadium debt won’t stay all high and mighty once Stanford abandons them. Going independent isn’t feasible for them so unless a Big Ten invite comes they swallow their pride.

But if FSU and Clemson leave then the appeal of joining would go down.  

[USC Traveler 488]

19 hours ago, camel at sea said:

For the long-time CR followers, Genetics56 is one and the same as NebFaninWi.  The board owner over at DirtBurglars banned her for trolling / creating multiple accounts, and he said her posts were coming from Chicago (with the implication being that she worked for the Big Ten.)  Either way, she appears to be part of some kind of pro Big Ten internet spin operation, either officially or unofficially. 

None of that means the stuff in the twitter thread is inaccurate.  But there may be some ulterior motives for putting that narrative out there.        

When USC was looking for a coach last year, she was taking ideas that people were throwing around on the USC247 board and putting them out on twitter as if she had sourced info on the USC search.  It was laughable.

I look at her twitter feed once in a while for entertainment, but I'd be shocked if she has any real info.  

[bullet 1,596]

13 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

People say this shit all the time but the numbers don’t lie. Other than watching the final minutes of a midmajor upset, no one watches those games.

This year should have been the wet dream of everyone who loves the underdog aspect of the tournament, with only a single P5 team making the final four…and guess what…

https://nypost.com/2023/04/04/mens-march-madness-final-tv-ratings-hit-record-low/

https://thespun.com/college-hoops/sports-world-reacts-to-mens-final-four-television-ratings

Forth lowest final four ever (only saved from last place due to the Miami/UConn game) and the LOWEST men’s basketball championship game ever recorded by Neilson.

I get it, unpopular opinion but the mid majors are costing the P5 teams money, it’s a simple fact and a weird inverse.

Nobody watches mid major games (omitting some Big East teams and Gonzaga) until the final minutes if they have a realistic chance at an upset. If the upset happens then sport writers (and now social media) romanticize the “underdog” story and hype it after the fact.

The problem is that after the fact doesn’t make money for the broadcasters and advertisers. The games that make the most money are your 8/9 games between mid level ACC and Big 12 teams that people watch from beginning to end, but those aren’t as fun to write about or read about nationally the next day.

Sports journalists love the underdog but the broadcasters do not (see this year as a reason why) because no one will watch their next game either, they just assume they’ll lose so why tune in.

An all P5 tournament would get higher ratings for the broadcasters, which allows them to sell more commercials, and in turn allows the schools to make more money..,and that’s before accounting for the fact that the P5 makes less than 1/3 of the payout while accounting for nearly half the field. Just doubling their take home would be a win before you even factor in the higher ratings/advertising.

You could expand it to include all FBS and the Big East but then you could still end up with the same stinker of a final four that we had this year. But even so that new setup would still drive higher ratings overall.

Either way the basketball tournament is in for a shake up in the coming years and the underdog fans likely will not be pleased with the changes.

I mostly agree with you.  The problem isn't so much the mid-majors, its the bottom 10 conferences.  I have no interest in the 1-16 and 2-15 games.  3-14 are usually pretty one sided as well.  FIU barely even qualifies as a mid-major (or was it FAU-I can't even tell you a month later).  And the other two schools weren't basketball brands.

In 1983 North Carolina St. was a Cinderella.  It was all relative.  The tourney was just fine back in 1983 were 250-270 schools.  Now there are 364 in Division I.  They need a breakaway in basketball more than in football. 

In football they just need to quit incentivizing CUSA and Sun Belt picking up FCS schools.  There are only a half dozen FCS schools that have the size and potential base to do better than average G5.  And a half dozen more that are small but with good traditions who might have some good seasons (Dakotas, Montanas).  But we don't need more Wyomings.  And most of the schools added are Sam Houstons and Jacksonville St.s that have no business in FBS.

[TKthunder2 4,981]

1 hour ago, FartingDreamer said:

But if FSU and Clemson leave then the appeal of joining would go down.  

Agree somewhat, but getting back together with their regional foes like Pitt, Louisville, Syracuse, and Virginia Tech will appeal more to their fans and admin than playing K State and Texas Tech.

Also the more teams the Big 12 adds West of Colorado the more you strain their travel budgets and non-revenue teams. Just like the discussions we’re having about USC/UCLA, jumping more than 1 time zone is difficult so trading away Eastern schools for those West of (or near) the Mississippi will likely help both conferences.

The money would have to be close, but I could see them making a switch if its less than $10 million a year difference.

[bullet 1,596]

FWIW (which is not much), a Washington fan site, RealDawgs, is claiming the Washington/Oregon Big 10 invite is coming around Memorial Day.   If it happens, I guess that guy gets his Flugaur moment in the LA Times.

[TXs 226]

20 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

So, this is buzzing:

 

 

 

Sounds like clickbait BS. If there were that many parties involved, there'd be much more smoke coming from multiple sources. 

[USC Traveler 488]

15 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

Agree somewhat, but getting back together with their regional foes like Pitt, Louisville, Syracuse, and Virginia Tech will appeal more to their fans and admin than playing K State and Texas Tech.

Also the more teams the Big 12 adds West of Colorado the more you strain their travel budgets and non-revenue teams. Just like the discussions we’re having about USC/UCLA, jumping more than 1 time zone is difficult so trading away Eastern schools for those West of (or near) the Mississippi will likely help both conferences.

The money would have to be close, but I could see them making a switch if its less than $10 million a year difference.

 When the ACC gets picked apart, the more likely scenario is that the B12 absorbs the ACC schools that have some appeal, but are not taken by the BIG/SEC.

That would set the B12 up as a true coast to coast conference (league), and put them firmly in a tier of their own in CFB.

There's a bunch of different ways it could play out, but even in a worst case scenario for the B12, they'd get some good additions:

Let's say BIG gets UVA, UNC, Duke, GT, and Miami, with UVA and UNC using the leverage of going SEC to bring Duke along.

SEC takes FSU, Clemson, VT and NC St.

B12 would certainly take UL and Pitt.  Along with WVU and Cincy, that's a nice division with games that will draw eyeballs- especially on a Thursday night.

Would the B12 take Wake ?  

Cuse and BC probably left behind.  Memphis, Tulane and maybe even USF (more FL access for B12) would be better additions East of Texas.