Realignment talk not going away

[Jabberwocky 1666]

1 minute ago, 'stache said:

The media companies were a party to the Big XII GOR. I dug into it as part of the discussion when some posters were saying the "Irate 8" were preventing OU/TX from leaving early. I pointed out that even if the schools said "ok, so long, no need to comply with the contract" the media companies weren't ever going to just let it go. It was confirmed when the report came out that FOX was the holdup and the early exit deal came with some game consideration to FOX (I think the UT/Mich game). 

The media partners were enforcing their contract terms with the Big 12 and the Big 12 was concurrently negotiating their contract terms with UTOU.

It obviously doesn't make sense for the Big12 to cut UTOU loose from the 99 year GOR to subsequently be fucked by their media partners for breaking the media rights contract.

Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

Yes but when they announced they were leaving it was 2 years prior to the end of their media deal/gor. July 2024 there is currently no GOR or media deal for PAC

This.

[TKthunder2 4980]

9 minutes ago, Jabberwocky said:

The bylaws are only enforcable through a valid GOR. That is what they are arguing against.

This is 100% incorrect. Conference bylaws  around exit fees and notice requirements have nothing to do the the GOR.

Organizational bylaws are 100% enforceable in court.

If you cannot agree in this extremely simple point then there is no point in continuing this discussion.

[Hurtlocker 2208]

Ok something is getting lost in translation here.  For the sake of argument, ignore all things GoR for a moment.

Colorado and Arizona are contractual members of the Pac 12 and have various agreements dictating what happens if they want to leave, etc.   This is in addition to that thing we agreed not to talk about.    Leaving a conference has a buy-out amount on its own, regardless of any media deal.   I am not sure what the Pac's is, but for the Big 12 it was two years of conference revenues.   Money aside, the notice is important because it starts the leaving clock.    If the Pac has to give notice 1 year out, then that notice has to occur before the end of that financial year.    This is why you saw Texas/Oklahoma/UCLA/USC announce basically on the last days of July.   Had they waited a week, the clock would have started at the beginning of the NEXT financial year.

Why that's important:    If Colorado and Arizona want out at the end of the Pac contract, which is the end of next year, they need to announce that intention by July 31st of this year.    If they do not, they, technically - we all know how negotiations work so lets just avoid that conversation for the moment, cannot get out until July 31st of 2024-25, a year after the Pac 12 media contract expires.   They either now need to pay more to get out faster, or they fucked themselves and have to get on the Pac's deal or no one will put them on TV in 2024-25.

[Hurtlocker 2208]

2 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

This is 100% incorrect. Conference bylaws  around exit fees and notice requirements have nothing to do the the GOR.

Organizational bylaws are 100% enforceable in court.

If you cannot agree in this extremely simple point then there is no point in continuing this discussion.

This.    There are TWO agreements and both are equally binding.   They just have different terms.

Texas and Oklahoma had to settle their buyout AND their GoR to leave, not just one.     The game change was for the GoR, the $100m was for the buyout.

[Uncle Nate 2097]

2 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

Ok something is getting lost in translation here.  For the sake of argument, ignore all things GoR for a moment.

Colorado and Arizona are contractual members of the Pac 12 and have various agreements dictating what happens if they want to leave, etc.   This is in addition to that thing we agreed not to talk about.    Leaving a conference has a buy-out amount on its own, regardless of any media deal.   I am not sure what the Pac's is, but for the Big 12 it was two years of conference revenues.   Money aside, the notice is important because it starts the leaving clock.    If the Pac has to give notice 1 year out, then that notice has to occur before the end of that financial year.    This is why you saw Texas/Oklahoma/UCLA/USC announce basically on the last days of July.   Had they waited a week, the clock would have started at the beginning of the NEXT financial year.

Why that's important:    If Colorado and Arizona want out at the end of the Pac contract, which is the end of next year, they need to announce that intention by July 31st of this year.    If they do not, they, technically - we all know how negotiations work so lets just avoid that conversation for the moment, cannot get out until July 31st of 2024-25, a year after the Pac 12 media contract expires.   They either now need to pay more to get out faster, or they fucked themselves and have to get on the Pac's deal or no one will put them on TV in 2024-25.

End of July or end of June??

Because I keep hearing the conference fiscal year is July 1 - June 30 (same as fed govt).  But I don't know if that's actually true or not.  

 

[Jabberwocky 1666]

6 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

This is 100% incorrect. Conference bylaws  around exit fees and notice requirements have nothing to do the the GOR.

Organizational bylaws are 100% enforceable in court.

If you cannot agree in this extremely simple point then there is no point in continuing this discussion.

 

3 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

This.    There are TWO agreements and both are equally binding.   They just have different terms.

Texas and Oklahoma had to settle their buyout AND their GoR to leave, not just one.     The game change was for the GoR, the $100m was for the buyout.

Okay.

[Hurtlocker 2208]

2 minutes ago, Uncle Nate said:

End of July or end of June??

Because I keep hearing the conference fiscal year is July 1 - June 30 (same as fed govt).  But I don't know if that's actually true or not.  

 

I don't know this one, i haven't read the Pac's agreement.   The B12 is August to July, as is I think the SEC's, so I just assumed they all kind of lined up that way.

[TKthunder2 4980]

1 hour ago, Uncle Nate said:

End of July or end of June??

Because I keep hearing the conference fiscal year is July 1 - June 30 (same as fed govt).  But I don't know if that's actually true or not.  

 

That CBS article I posted above seemed to indicate that it was July1/June30 for the PAC 12 (which makes sense as it aligns with the athletic calendar).

[Hurtlocker 2208]

2 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

That CBS article I posted above seemed to indicate that it was July1/June30 for the PAC 12 (which makes sense as it aligns with the athletic calendar).

So....i went to track it down again and the B12 is 7/1 - 6/30.   Here's the bylaws:

Seems the Pac goes 8/1 - 7/31, here's from their handbook:

Quote

3. Withdrawal. No member shall deliver a notice of withdrawal to the Conference in the period beginning on July 24, 2011, and ending on August 1, 2024; provided, that if any member does deliver a notice of withdrawal prior to August 1, 2024, in violation of this chapter, the Conference shall be entitled to an injunction and other equitable relief to prevent such breach, and if a court of competent jurisdiction shall deny the Conference such injunctive relief, the Conference shall be entitled to retain all the media and sponsorship rights in the multi-player video distribution (MPVD) and telecommunications/wireless categories of the member purporting to withdraw through August 1, 2024, even if the member is then a member of another conference or an independent school for some or all intercollegiate sports competitions. Additionally, if a member delivers notice of withdrawal in violation of this chapter, the member’s representative to the CEO Group shall automatically cease to be a member of the CEO Group and shall cease to have the right to vote on any matter before the CEO Group. (6/10, 10/10, 7/11

Their Gor though, at least the reference to it, I'm guessing they have a tighter version of this somewhere, is started in July...

It's a bit messy, but we're coming up on the window of "if you're going to jump, you need to jump now".   That jump will cost them a year revenue, if I'm reading it right.

[thunderlounge 7757]

2 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

That jump will cost them a year revenue, if I'm reading it right.

And if there isn’t a valid TV deal at/for that time, then how much do they owe?

There is potential for some major fuckery to go down when Kliavkoff finds out from all his fucking around. 

[Hurtlocker 2208]

59 minutes ago, thunderlounge said:

And if there isn’t a valid TV deal at/for that time, then how much do they owe?

There is potential for some major fuckery to go down when Kliavkoff finds out from all his fucking around. 

Well, that's the timing thing.

If they announce prior to this year ending (by July or August, i can't tell) then they'd lose the revenue for next year as a buyout.   They'd also likely have to pick up the Comcast difference too.   If they wait until after the next fiscal year ends, then they'd have to stay a year longer, e.g. into the first year of the new contract, which would then be whatever revenue is earned in 2024-25.   But, the downside then is you have to sign a GoR to get on the next contract, so, you'd have to break that.    

Their window to move anywhere is before the next fiscal year starts, whenever that is.   After that, they're going to be there for a while.

If Comcast is $5m, and the buyout is $35m, and the new PAC contract is $25m, and the Big 12 pays like advertised at around $7m more per year, Colorado/AZ would break even right before the start of the next B12 contract.   

 

[bullet 1596]

12 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

This is 100% incorrect. Conference bylaws  around exit fees and notice requirements have nothing to do the the GOR.

Organizational bylaws are 100% enforceable in court.

If you cannot agree in this extremely simple point then there is no point in continuing this discussion.

Not 100%.  Exit fees in the bylaws usually get reduced. 

[Hurtlocker 2208]

9 hours ago, bullet said:

Not 100%.  Exit fees in the bylaws usually get reduced. 

That doesn't mean they're not enforceable in court, just that two parties agreed to negotiate a different settlement.

[notre dame joe 172]

8 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

That doesn't mean they're not enforceable in court, just that two parties agreed to negotiate a different settlement.

Has any conference won a judgment for an exit fee and collected on it? To my knowledge the 'payments' were just a withhold of revenue.

[BurntOrange&White 39649]

53 minutes ago, notre dame joe said:

Has any conference won a judgment for an exit fee and collected on it? To my knowledge the 'payments' were just a withhold of revenue.

I don't think it's ever happened and would be a bad look for a conference to future members 

[Hurtlocker 2208]

2 hours ago, notre dame joe said:

Has any conference won a judgment for an exit fee and collected on it? To my knowledge the 'payments' were just a withhold of revenue.

Yeah I don't think its ever got to that point with anyone.   Nearly all I can remember negotiated out.   Maybe SDSU will test that.

[BurntOrange&White 39649]

15 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

Yeah I don't think its ever got to that point with anyone.   Nearly all I can remember negotiated out.   Maybe SDSU will test that.

SDSU issue is just pure stupidity

[USC Traveler 488]

On 6/22/2023 at 1:21 PM, TKthunder2 said:

The Big 12 can write out a new bylaw effective July 1, 2024 (after UT/OU leave) that lowers their exit fees and reduces the transition timeline for any members that leave for the SEC/B1G. This would remove a lot of hesitation for Colorado or any P12 school that believes they’ll get an invite from the Big Ten. Now they won’t be able to break the GOR but if they can make an effort to lower their concerns and make the conference more attractive to P12/ACC school who think they are better than they are.

Agree 100%.

It would be a good tool to help bring those schools in, and allow the B12 to kill off the WAC10 as a relevant conference, with no real downside for the B12, as very few of those schools will actually end up in the BIG.  

They'll end up as long-term members of the B12, even if they are currently delusional about their BIG prospects..

[BurntOrange&White 39649]

 

[Trojan Man 429]

1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

 

"Those new jeans make your ass look creative and forward thinking, honey"

"We're excited to offer you the job.  Would you like to hear about our creative and forward thinking benefits and compensation package?"

"That mole looks pretty sketchy.  I'm referring you to the most creative and forward thinking dermatologist I know to take a closer look at it."

[TKthunder2 4980]

Creative = The CW or Ion

Forward Thinking = Apple

[thunderlounge 7757]

Ha. They think the deal they‘re getting now is bad, wait til they see the new number after 4-6 teams jump off from the first one.

[DFW Horn 6118]

32 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

Creative = The CW or Ion

Forward Thinking = Apple

The PAC is trying to reach a completely new demographic that doesn't usually watch CFB.

Brilliant!

[Uncle Nate 2097]

24 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

The PAC is trying to reach a completely new demographic that doesn't usually watch CFB.

Brilliant!

Cal and Stanford grads. 

[Hagbard Celine 10756]

with 5 days to go, we're at the cemetary scene of good, bady and ugly

the soundtrack during this scene is labeled "The Ecstasy of Gold"

for the kids in attendance, the Modelo commercial music is now 57 years old

 

[In re UofA 29]

To me, creative and forward thinking means a deal with Apple that pays a low guarantee with incentives tied to subscriptions. The conference will boast per school distribution *up to* $30M per year but in the coming years it will produce half that considering the conference assumed production costs, Comcast paybacks and predictable consumer ambivalence. PAC admin has been horribad for so long a poor deal is inevitable. 

[notre dame joe 172]

2 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

with 5 days to go, we're at the cemetary scene of good, bady and ugly

the soundtrack during this scene is labeled "The Ecstasy of Gold"

for the kids in attendance, the Modelo commercial music is now 57 years old

 

I didn't know Metallica was that old. 

[DFW Horn 6118]

1 hour ago, In re UofA said:

To me, creative and forward thinking means a deal with Apple that pays a low guarantee with incentives tied to subscriptions. The conference will boast per school distribution *up to* $30M per year but in the coming years it will produce half that considering the conference assumed production costs, Comcast paybacks and predictable consumer ambivalence. PAC admin has been horribad for so long a poor deal is inevitable. 

What's the latest with UA?

Is your administration gonna make the move or not?

[In re UofA 29]

58 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

What's the latest with UA?

Is your administration gonna make the move or not?

President Robbins has been quoted that he wants the conference to stay together, but will make an “informed decision” when a deal is on the table. I think his priority is 1) Money - can’t be significantly lower than the Big12’s deal, and 2) Exposure - can’t be exclusively on a streaming service. I get the impression that ties to Cal/Stanford academics is not a driver like some other schools. Also not tied to ASU, though I would prefer to continue the series.

What’ll happen? No-one knows for sure without hard numbers. The facts as we know them forecast an exit.

Seems like the fan base is open to a move. We’re much more interested in basketball and Pac basketball has been even worse than football, as hard as that is to believe. 

[CustersDoctor 584]

4 hours ago, In re UofA said:

To me, creative and forward thinking means a deal with Apple that pays a low guarantee with incentives tied to subscriptions. The conference will boast per school distribution *up to* $30M per year but in the coming years it will produce half that considering the conference assumed production costs, Comcast paybacks and predictable consumer ambivalence. PAC admin has been horribad for so long a poor deal is inevitable. 

So in edition to the usual junk mail asking for donations to phacility improvements, NIL collectives and season ticket renewals and upgrades, PACX fans gonna get solicitations badgering fans about their Applezon streaming subscription. 🙄 

[billfromlaketravis 11359]

The MLS/sub model is such a shitty way to go. Other than Oregon, Arizona State and UW fans, no one is going to sign up for that shit. Stanford and Cal fans will just hack it and create a pirate stream. 

I assume Colorado and Arizona are gone if that’s the deal. Does BYU, Arizona and Colorado give the Big 12/gambling degenerates enough late games?

Edited June 26, 2023 by billfromlaketravis

[TKthunder2 4980]

58 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

The MLS/sub model is such a shitty way to go. Other than Oregon, Arizona State and UW fans, no one is going to sign up for that shit. Stanford and Cal fans will just hack it and create a pirate stream. 

I assume Colorado and Arizona are gone if that’s the deal. Does BYU, Arizona and Colorado give the Big 12/gambling degenerates enough late games?

That would get you 3 late OOC games and  3 conferences games between those 3 schools.

To get full weekly coverage you need 6 additional conference games against Central Time Zone opponents. That would be 2 additional games per team.

That would put them 4 late night home games for each CU/AZ/BYU which is likely too big of an obligation to cover a full season worth of late night games.

4 Mountain/Pacific Time Zone teams gets you closer (4 OOC games, 6 games between those 4 schools) where you’d only need a few more and coverage might be feasible, but 5 teams is really the sweet spot where no Mtn/Pac TZ school would have more than 3 late night games (some even only 2) and you could mix in a few CTZ teams as late night opponents a couple of times a year to help with coverage/interest as well.

[Laxtonto 11929]

So what do you guys consider the floor of what the PAC schools would accept to not see defections?

Over the air for 50%? 40%? with the rest streaming?

They need to hit like 27? to be viable? 

5 year GOR?
 

I am trying to game in my head the terms that it would take to get Oregon and UW to sign on to a GOR with that has enough teeth that the other schools agree.

[BurntOrange&White 39649]

7 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

So what do you guys consider the floor of what the PAC schools would accept to not see defections?

Over the air for 50%? 40%? with the rest streaming?

They need to hit like 27? to be viable? 

5 year GOR?
 

I am trying to game in my head the terms that it would take to get Oregon and UW to sign on to a GOR with that has enough teeth that the other schools agree.

27-28 mill per year, 60-70% linear(no matter provider), GOR for the term of the media deal.

That will put them so far behind once post season payout comes but they'll think they got a win.

 

 

Edited June 26, 2023 by BurntOrange&White

[Hurtlocker 2208]

18 hours ago, In re UofA said:

To me, creative and forward thinking means a deal with Apple that pays a low guarantee with incentives tied to subscriptions. The conference will boast per school distribution *up to* $30M per year but in the coming years it will produce half that considering the conference assumed production costs, Comcast paybacks and predictable consumer ambivalence. PAC admin has been horribad for so long a poor deal is inevitable. 

So the same pitch of the PACN, which was promised $15m and delivered $3m?

[Uncle Nate 2097]

18 hours ago, In re UofA said:

To me, creative and forward thinking means a deal with Apple that pays a low guarantee with incentives tied to subscriptions. The conference will boast per school distribution *up to* $30M per year but in the coming years it will produce half that considering the conference assumed production costs, Comcast paybacks and predictable consumer ambivalence. PAC admin has been horribad for so long a poor deal is inevitable. 

You would think the Comcast fiasco would have taught them not to even consider going down this path.

 

EDIT:  Fucking Hurtlocker beat me to it by just a few seconds.  

Edited June 26, 2023 by Uncle Nate

[Hurtlocker 2208]

2 hours ago, Laxtonto said:

So what do you guys consider the floor of what the PAC schools would accept to not see defections?

Over the air for 50%? 40%? with the rest streaming?

They need to hit like 27? to be viable? 

5 year GOR?
 

I am trying to game in my head the terms that it would take to get Oregon and UW to sign on to a GOR with that has enough teeth that the other schools agree.

The thing here though is the over the air depends mainly on the amount of inventory you have.    The more you have, the more good stuff you can put on linear for a higher return and you dump the garbage on streaming/conference networks for some extra loot.   

The B1G, at 14, usually puts 50% of its 63 games on linear, but they're massive games, so they drive big numbers.   The rest funds the BTN carriage because all those fans want to see those games.   

The Big12, at ten teams, had nearly 75% of their 45 games on linear, because they didn't have enough to find a network/streaming and it was the only way to maintain the same level of competitive revenue.   You'll see this get distorted in twitter viewership analysis, because all the stuff that would end up on a conference network, which isn't metered, was now on FS1, which is, so they have a lot of low interest games that most conferences bury in the not-metered market.   If you ever wonder how the B12 survived losing Texas and Oklahoma, its because they drew really well in these games everyone figured would go unwatched.

The Pac currently only has ten teams, but also has an anchor of the Pac 12 networks, with an agreement of 2 football games per year.   This means that, unless they fold the PACN, which would be a massive loss write off, the Pac only has about 25 football games they can even take to market, any market, linear or streaming.   Even if they could sell all of those, its still less than what the B12 sold to get their current number.   

The only thing I can think of that is "creative and forward thinking" that can save the PAC's ass at this point, is...

• Sell the entirety of the PACN to Apple for around $100m, which pays off the Pac's current issues and gives Apple a linear footprint in 14m west coast homes
• Apple gives the Pac a $3b deal over ten years for the rights to all of their content to be used in any way Apple wants, but most games are now Linear, just on this new channel.
• Apple rebrands and begins to fill the network off sports, featuring their shows on linear before they move to streaming, increasing buzz and viewership
• Apple expands its footprint organically by providing local MLB (who is losing local rights in many markets with RSN melt down) and MLS games, in market only (the NFL model) the US in sports markets - double win when the there is both a baseball and soccer team.   Each expansion increases size and carriage.
• Become a player in future local rights, including the NBA

That saves the Pac with a $30m/year deal, in PR at least as they won't hit that $30m/year average until 2030.

Edited June 26, 2023 by Hurtlocker

[CustersDoctor 584]

2 hours ago, Laxtonto said:

So what do you guys consider the floor of what the PAC schools would accept to not see defections?

Over the air for 50%? 40%? with the rest streaming?

They need to hit like 27? to be viable? 

5 year GOR?
 

I am trying to game in my head the terms that it would take to get Oregon and UW to sign on to a GOR with that has enough teeth that the other schools agree.

    The PAC12 already has a streaming problem. Their linear to streaming last season was about 66/33. Fifteen of their first 32 games were streamed, thats nearly 50%. During conference play the PAC12 network usually had 2 gamed. That's 2 out of 6 games or 33%.

  With the fact the BIG12  locked up most of the remaining time slots the PACX at best will have 3 linear games a week. That's a 60/40 split and only if they stay at ten teams which I'm pretty sure they will. 

  I believe the PACX won't go lower than a 60/40 split and won't take less than 27mill guaranteed. And if they do some BS of $23mill guaranteed, but if we can show just X number of new subscribers you'll all get 7 million a year more, then the 6 schools with options will leave.

[TKthunder2 4980]

20 minutes ago, CustersDoctor said:

    The PAC12 already has a streaming problem. Their linear to streaming last season was about 66/33. Fifteen of their first 32 games were streamed, thats nearly 50%. During conference play the PAC12 network usually had 2 gamed. That's 2 out of 6 games or 33%. 

Add in that only 2 conference games (omitting USCvUCLA) were top 5 games of the week per the ratings last year (UO/UW, and Utah/UCLA) and that with most of their top games were on FOX or ESPN late which artificially boosted their numbers and you can see the issue.

Take those advantages and the LA schools/market away and you can see why networks don’t want to pay for their tier 2 or tier 3 games.

[Jabberwocky 1666]

 

[Evil Bill Obrien 3188]

That new Conference USA footprint is so fucked, from Las Cruces, NM to Lynchburg, VA to Miami and points in between...props to them for keeping that corpse of a conference going but go no idea how they make it work for sports other than Football and Basketball.

[BurntOrange&White 39649]

7 minutes ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

That new Conference USA footprint is so fucked, from Las Cruces, NM to Lynchburg, VA to Miami and points in between...props to them for keeping that corpse of a conference going but go no idea how they make it work for sports other than Football and Basketball.

That's why it's funny when people talk about travel for the p4/p5 conferences. If these g5/g6 conferences can make it work then there is no excuse for the p4/5

[CustersDoctor 584]

[Evil Bill Obrien 3188]

26 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

That's why it's funny when people talk about travel for the p4/p5 conferences. If these g5/g6 conferences can make it work then there is no excuse for the p4/5

If by "make it work" you mean these schools all charging fat student sports fees on top of tuition to subsidize flying the golf team or water polo team between Las Cruces and Lynchburg Virginia, then yeah thats how all the G5/G6 conferences are probably doing it for the non rev generating sports. That is what it is and at some point students at those universities likely voted for it, its just not the free money and paying all the student athletes as employees thats available to some of the members of the larger/more lucrative conferences. 

[Jabberwocky 1666]

 

[BurntOrange&White 39649]

2 minutes ago, Jabberwocky said:

 

[DFW Horn 6118]

20 minutes ago, Jabberwocky said:

 

The fact de la Torre has a PhD speaks poorly of academia.

No real world perspective.

[66BUFF 2553]

On 6/19/2023 at 2:40 PM, oSuJeff97 said:

I think fans make WAY too much of thing about what kind of city/town the schools are situated in. 

I'm sure a handful of recruits make decisions based on that, but the vast, vast do not. They tend to go to places that are (a) successful and (b) help them get to the NFL. That means being a winning program and having top-notch facilities.

I think the simple answer as to why Colorado fell off is that they weren't willing to keep up in the facilities arms race with the rest of the Big 12 that started in the early 2000s and essentially never let up.  CU was always behind the blue bloods, but all of a sudden OSU, Tech, K-State, Iowa State, etc., started pouring hundreds of millions into facilities through the mid-2000s and also blew past CU in that regard.

Now their facilities are dogshit compared to pretty much everyone in the Big 12 except Kansas; they compare a little better in the PAC just because most of the schools don't care about football, but still way behind schools they would be competing against for recruits like Utah, Oregon, Washington, etc.

 

[SimonBolivar 10914]

11 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

The fact de la Torre has a PhD speaks poorly of academia.

No real world perspective.

"She also earned a master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Agricultural and Resource Economics."

 

Yeah but you haven't seen her tomatoes.

[TxEx84 375]

56 minutes ago, 66BUFF said:

 

He likes the view of a parking lot???