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Realignment talk not going away

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Posted by Sandbagging Steve,

How many teams will be left when the dust settles in a few years? I think there's a way for all the teams to still have some involvement. I will explain that at the end of this list. Here's my list of the top 32 programs and a list if it goes to 48. There's some debate if it goes to 48, but not much debate if it stops at 32. I guess one could debate Arizona State, but that's about it. The top 32 at least come close to carrying their own weight. Everyone below that line is losing money for t

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camel at sea

camel at sea 589

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4 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

Thats kind of how I'd measure it, like a Q-score.   When Nebraska sucks balls, they're still pulling in similar numbers to Oregon when at their best.

I'd have to see the receipts on this.  I think Oregon is beating them pretty decisively in a lot of areas.  Even if NU gets back to 9-10 wins per, I don't know if they'll climb into the Top 10 on the recruiting trail.  Oregon has leveraged Nike, location, facilities, NIL, etc, to land a couple Top 10 classes in recent years.  

It's not like Oregon has been winning at an extra elite level lately.  Their 2014 CFP trip was their only CFP trip and that will be nine seasons ago in August.  They've only won the PAC twice since then, and one of those was the COVID year. 

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Aggy should abstain so the vote is 13-0 and then we can then brand it on their dog.

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Welshy

Welshy 907

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1 hour ago, camel at sea said:

How would you measure a brand power battle between Oregon and Nebraska?  

TV audience?  Appeal to recruits?  Merch sales?  Ticket prices for an opponent when they visit?  NU has been irrelevant for nearly all of the adult years of U.S. millennials and they've been a total non-factor for the entire lives of Gen Z.  

Miami and suburbs is 6m+. Nebraska (the whole state) is less than 2 million people. If they can't cheat and pay players who couldn't pass a reading test, they can't compete. You have to be 40 years old to remember a relevant Nebraska. Miami and surrounds is 3x more populous, and all of Florida is interested. When they are shitty, they still pull more viewership than any big 12 team not UT/OU.

Nebraska is the shitiest "name" there is. Colorado, if they truly give a fuck, has immediately more potential than Nebraska and they have nowhere near the pedigree. Also, they have long natural grass and shit.*

*90s reference. no idea if current. They used not mow so they could slow down 90/'00 teams who thew the ball. Like watching dudes running threw mud. 

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Welshy

Welshy 907

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4 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I'm not sure why but a CU fan talking trash is hilarious to me. Maybe slow you're roll a bit until Prime at least steps foot on the field for a few games. 

I am not a CU fan. Not sure how you got that. 

I picked the next shittiest brand that was out of favor next to Nebraska. I think CU is the closest shitiest brand that compares.

I think Dion is a fraud and hope Colorado is swallowed by a space/time vortex that uses Dion's skin as a space-warrior condom. but they have more potential than nebraska does at being relevant. 

Smug much?

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Hurtlocker

Hurtlocker 2208

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49 minutes ago, Welshy said:

Miami and suburbs is 6m+. Nebraska (the whole state) is less than 2 million people. If they can't cheat and pay players who couldn't pass a reading test, they can't compete. You have to be 40 years old to remember a relevant Nebraska. Miami and surrounds is 3x more populous, and all of Florida is interested. When they are shitty, they still pull more viewership than any big 12 team not UT/OU.

Nebraska is the shitiest "name" there is. Colorado, if they truly give a fuck, has immediately more potential than Nebraska and they have nowhere near the pedigree. Also, they have long natural grass and shit.*

*90s reference. no idea if current. They used not mow so they could slow down 90/'00 teams who thew the ball. Like watching dudes running threw mud. 

Potential and Population are not the measurements   Does it help, sure, in time.   Brand is like a bucket you fill slowly each year.   The more success you have over decades, the greater that brand grows, you can't really grow a stable brand quickly.   Nebraska has been a dumpster fire for two decades and it still has a bigger bucket than any other property left on the board, except the Irish.  

Miami, FSU, Oregon, etc, they all have brands, they have value.   But they don't have brands and value that equates to the Big 2's per team revenue.   They are in purgatory between the haves and have nots.    Too valuable for the B12/ACC and not valuable enough for the Big 2.

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bullet

bullet 1596

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3 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

I'm discussing brands, not how well some teams do in big games or when they're good.  At 6-6 more people will still watch Texas or Michigan than will tune into Aurburn or FSU or Clemson.    Oregon's brand is growing but it is not in that top tier.

Nebraska has fucking blown for decades, but they still carry more brand power than Oregon.     

When consolidating for regular seasons, you want brands.   Viewers will come.

I wasn't disputing your first tier.

Its putting Auburn, FSU and Clemson in the 3rd tier I was disputing.

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LTbear

LTbear 4159

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42 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

wtf is "accelerated" progress when you have been bumblefucking around for 2 years and gotten nothing done?

how can you "accelerate" your progress when you are still at ZERO ?

Kliavkoff got up the nerve to call ESPN today. So like super progress. 

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Welshy

Welshy 907

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4 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

Potential and Population are not the measurements   Does it help, sure, in time.   Brand is like a bucket you fill slowly each year.   The more success you have over decades, the greater that brand grows, you can't really grow a stable brand quickly.   Nebraska has been a dumpster fire for two decades and it still has a bigger bucket than any other property left on the board, except the Irish.  

Miami, FSU, Oregon, etc, they all have brands, they have value.   But they don't have brands and value that equates to the Big 2's per team revenue.   They are in purgatory between the haves and have not.    Too valuable for the B12/ACC and not valuable enough for the Big 2.

 Sorry, please allow me to clarify: 

Fuck Nebraska. 

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CustersDoctor

CustersDoctor 584

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6 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

wtf is "accelerated" progress when you have been bumblefucking around for 2 years and gotten nothing done?

how can you "accelerate" your progress when you are still at ZERO ?

Here, since you're to lazy, let me google it for you.

Accelerated: See Foward Thinking

Forward Thinking: See Creative

Creative: See Accelerated

That should help clear the air.

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CustersDoctor

CustersDoctor 584

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On 6/30/2023 at 4:52 PM, Hurtlocker said:

This seems a no brainer.   The windows are filling up fast and you can either put more games on streaming, at 12-14 teams, or you can take more windows.   They've got 2 on Saturday, but getting Thursday and Friday nights not only takes games off streaming to linear, but also takes options away from the Pac.    

After next year, they could add 2-4 more west coast teams and take the late night window too and keep 3-5 linear slots on every week.   Granted, not all in the top three camps of Big Noon on Fox and ESPN/ABC in prime, but its far better branding to be on tv than not.   And playing Thursday night on ESPN is better than FS1, like, ever.   And FS1 is better than any conference network or streaming.   

 

The Big12 finalizing some Thursday and Friday night slots is just another nail in the PACX coffin. Their "forward thinking" just got outplayed.

There's also this previously posted tweet in which Yormark thanks the teams at Endeavor and Proskaeur. I guess these are companies specializing in contract negotiations and most of all, fine print details.  I've wondered how conference offices could possibly handle all the infinitesimal details of a 6 year billiondy dollar deal, looks like you outsource that crap. 

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Laxtonto

Laxtonto 11927

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Posted

So, no real media deal and no leaks yet about the structure or framework presented to the presidents?

So the real question is did they present anything specific framework-wise and they are clamping down on who has access or did they show so little that there is nothing to leak?

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Hurtlocker

Hurtlocker 2208

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9 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

So, no real media deal and no leaks yet about the structure or framework presented to the presidents?

So the real question is did they present anything specific framework-wise and they are clamping down on who has access or did they show so little that there is nothing to leak?

I'm guessing the later.   Either they are the smartest people in the room or this is going to implode drastically.    The best expansion property on the board for them is now off market and ESPN is down to one window left and is cost-cutting at a remarkable pace.

I'm still under the belief that the reason this is taking so long is they are going to sell the PacNet to pay off their issues and regain some lost investment, which will look like increased revenue for 5-10 years.   If someone leaves now, they may miss out on recouping that cost.

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DFW Horn

DFW Horn 6118

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1 hour ago, Hurtlocker said:

I'm guessing the later.   Either they are the smartest people in the room or this is going to implode drastically.    The best expansion property on the board for them is now off market and ESPN is down to one window left and is cost-cutting at a remarkable pace.

I'm still under the belief that the reason this is taking so long is they are going to sell the PacNet to pay off their issues and regain some lost investment, which will look like increased revenue for 5-10 years.   If someone leaves now, they may miss out on recouping that cost.

Who the fuck would buy PacNet? Apple?

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Uncle Nate

Uncle Nate 2097

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7 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

Who the fuck would buy PacNet? Apple?

That would seem to go against the way Apple does things. They are smart and calculating. I don’t see how PacNet could be viewed as a good idea within Apple. But what do I know? (Hint: Not a damn thing).

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Hurtlocker

Hurtlocker 2208

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, DFW Horn said:

Who the fuck would buy PacNet? Apple?

If it is sold, probably.  And if sold, it will be for pennies on the dollar, like $100m.   It provides Apple a linear channel in 14m homes with a lot of production equipment and the personel to use it.  Though it would cease to be PacNet and would become linear Apple TV.  

With their MLS and MLB regional agreements and the implosion of RSN, where rights can be gobbled up in various markets, they could expand the footprint more than the Pac ever could.

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DFW Horn

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49 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

If it is sold, probably.  And if sold, it will be for pennies on the dollar, like $100m.   It provides Apple a linear channel in 14m homes with a lot of production equipment and the personel to use it.  Though it would cease to be PacNet and would become linear Apple TV.  

With their MLS and MLB regional agreements and the implosion of RSN, where rights can be gobbled up in various markets, they could expand the footprint more than the Pac ever could.

Well, then Kliavkoff will have earned his keep if not a medal. He inherited a shit salad from the assclown, Larry Scott. 

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Hurtlocker

Hurtlocker 2208

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2 hours ago, DFW Horn said:

Well, then Kliavkoff will have earned his keep if not a medal. He inherited a shit salad from the assclown, Larry Scott. 

Yeah it would provide him a lure too.   Let's say they actually sell it for $150m and $75m pays off debt.   That splits $75m 10 ways.   Over 5 years that's 1.5m a year to buff up any contract difference AND, if a team moves they lose that $7.5m, which hurts because they've paid into it for a decade with no return.

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gatormarc

gatormarc 904

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On 6/30/2023 at 2:48 PM, bullet said:
On 6/30/2023 at 11:15 AM, DFW Horn said:

He still loses a 10-4 vote.

I forget what percentage the SEC bylaws state as the minimum to add members. Moot point

that agreement is total fiction. Florida has spnsored FSU.  And their purpose now is not to build the SEC network that’s in permanent decline so having new states is not as important.   FSU is absolutely first on the SEC list they would love to have them.

To answer the first question, 3/4 vote is needed, so if the "Gentlemen's Agreement" existed, it could have been used to block someone.

And what bullet said is correct. Florida has sponsored FSU multiple times. 

I think if the SEC were to expand, FSU would be towards the top of the list, but I really don't know that the SEC has any desire to expand right now. I think everyone just wants to digest a 16 team conference. 

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statsman

statsman 5421

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36 minutes ago, gatormarc said:

To answer the first question, 3/4 vote is needed, so if the "Gentlemen's Agreement" existed, it could have been used to block someone.

And what bullet said is correct. Florida has sponsored FSU multiple times. 

I think if the SEC were to expand, FSU would be towards the top of the list, but I really don't know that the SEC has any desire to expand right now. I think everyone just wants to digest a 16 team conference. 

Now, wait just a minute! Are you claiming that my “connected” Aggie friend has been talking out his ass?😂

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USC Traveler

USC Traveler 488

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On 6/30/2023 at 12:13 PM, bullet said:

There are only 6 schools not in the P2 who are serious regular playoff contenders.  Washington and Oregon, along with FSU, Clemson, Miami and ND are the others.

Washington and Oregon help lock up the west coast.  They help lock up the playoff contenders.  And while none of the surveys of fan interest are perfect, Oregon is consistently the favorite team in California north of San Francisco.  In some surveys, it is ahead of Cal and Stanford in parts of the Bay Area.

McMurphy said the Big 10 was looking at 7 schools-UW, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, Notre Dame, FSU and Miami.  We know Cal and Stanford were at the bottom of that list as they weren't in Chicago making presentations.  McMurphy is not the only one who is convinced Washington and Oregon will be invited sometime in the next decade.

Virginia and UNC have value, but its not like moving into NYC.  And their fb tv viewership is very pedestrian.

You said a lot without answering my question, so I'll ask again- exactly which BIG schools will find it in their best interest to add UO ?  

And if the Zeros are that valuable, why didn't the BIG do it over the last 12 months ?

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Hurtlocker

Hurtlocker 2208

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20 minutes ago, USC Traveler said:

You said a lot without answering my question, so I'll ask again- exactly which BIG schools will find it in their best interest to add UO ?  

And if the Zeros are that valuable, why didn't the BIG do it over the last 12 months ?

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bullet

bullet 1596

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, USC Traveler said:

You said a lot without answering my question, so I'll ask again- exactly which BIG schools will find it in their best interest to add UO ?  

And if the Zeros are that valuable, why didn't the BIG do it over the last 12 months ?

All of them because they make the playoffs.  Big 10 is in no hurry.  And is evaluating how 16 works.   Oregon isn’t USC or OU or UT so they aren’t a no brained but they have value

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CustersDoctor

CustersDoctor 584

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21 hours ago, Laxtonto said:

So, no real media deal and no leaks yet about the structure or framework presented to the presidents?

So the real question is did they present anything specific framework-wise and they are clamping down on who has access or did they show so little that there is nothing to leak?

If the PACX really sent out the contract framework right before a FOUR day weekend, it would be because the deal sucks. In politics you deliver bad news on Friday and good news on Monday or Tuesday. If the unemployment rate is going up, you announce it on Friday. Or If you ever had a daughter try out for cheerleader, the tryouts usually conclude during the week before spring break. The the administration will post who made the squad on Friday, then run out the door. They don't want to deal with any angry mom's and suicidal daughters until they've had a week to chill. Same here, if the PACX deal sucks, give it to the schools on Friday June 30th, the schools will have to chew on it at least until Wednesday.

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Hurtlocker

Hurtlocker 2208

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8 hours ago, CustersDoctor said:

If the PACX really sent out the contract framework right before a FOUR day weekend, it would be because the deal sucks. In politics you deliver bad news on Friday and good news on Monday or Tuesday. If the unemployment rate is going up, you announce it on Friday. Or If you ever had a daughter try out for cheerleader, the tryouts usually conclude during the week before spring break. The the administration will post who made the squad on Friday, then run out the door. They don't want to deal with any angry mom's and suicidal daughters until they've had a week to chill. Same here, if the PACX deal sucks, give it to the schools on Friday June 30th, the schools will have to chew on it at least until Wednesday.

Until he has ten votes, I'd be shocked if he presents anything

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