Realignment talk not going away

[TKthunder2 4,980]

3 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

It's hard to see how the Big 12 takes 2 from the PAC, and stops at taking only 2 from the PAC.

Maybe the play is to try to skip over ASU/Utah and bring in UO/UW as #15/#16.  

It’s signaling that they WILL take 2. If they take 2 now, likely won’t be room for everyone in the PAC. Hoping that the scarcity of spots to get people to get off the fence.

I doubt they add 2 non P5 schools, but it’s a good scare tactic to a school like Arizona.

[Trojan Man 429]

6 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

i'll go with that but would ask traveler or condom man to run it to ground for the hell of it

it does explain everything with the exception of the aztec fuck-up

other than being idiots, which is the probable explanation, you never worry about the deadline of your current employer - it's all about the time line of your future employer

even if the mountain west had a pumpkin date of midnight 30 June why would you give a fuck if your destination has another 45 days of runway?

@USC Traveler  @Trojan Man please run this to ground on pac fiscal year dates

I'm flattered you think I know this kind of thing, but I was under the impression realignment discussion is strictly for unsourced rampant speculation and wildly optimistic wishes and outlandish scenarios that require all 3 of a genie's wishes.

[Hurtlocker 2,208]

21 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

It's hard to see how the Big 12 takes 2 from the PAC, and stops at taking only 2 from the PAC.

Maybe the play is to try to skip over ASU/Utah and bring in UO/UW as #15/#16.  

The B12 would probably be ok stopping, but the moment one defection happens in the Pac, especially after they ghosted the Aztecs, its going to be crazy unstable.

[jTower 225]

1 hour ago, TKthunder2 said:

It’s signaling

This seems most likely. More smoke than fire. 

[Hagbard Celine 10,752]

6 hours ago, jTower said:

The Big 12 has officially expanded to 14 teams with the additions of BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF, but it won’t stay that way for long. After this year, they’ll return to 12 teams once Oklahoma and Texas depart for the SEC. Despite the recent shakeup, Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark wants the conference to stay at 14 teams, hinting that it could once again expand.

“I’d like to stay at 14 [teams] even with the departure of Texas and Oklahoma, candidly,” Yormark told Spencer Linton of BYU Sports Nation. “We’ll see if that’s a possibility or not. But I love 12.”

Yormak brining it to the PACX

turntables

[Hagbard Celine 10,752]

5 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

Pac 12 Membership Handbook

Seems to be an August fiscal.

okay then, game on

[bullet 1,596]

On 7/5/2023 at 9:22 AM, Al_4_ISU said:

UNC is a basketball blue blood with a competent football program, that's the #1 school in a relatively large and growing state.

I can see where they might make the SEC money, but it's not a slam dunk.  They're definitely worth more than Clemson.

Football is 80% of the value.  Kansas and Duke are just filler.  North Carolina barely more and only because they are in a populous state.  I think all the love for UNC is very misguided.  When the Big 10 and SEC look at the numbers, they won't have nearly the enthusiasm for UNC as message board posters.  They might still take them, but it won't be because of direct TV $$s.

[S11 16]

14 hours ago, camel at sea said:

It's hard to see how the Big 12 takes 2 from the PAC, and stops at taking only 2 from the PAC.

Maybe the play is to try to skip over ASU/Utah and bring in UO/UW as #15/#16.  

Likely needs to be tied to how much inventory FOX/ESPN will push for in the "After Dark" slot.   That's the biggest gap in their collections.

At 3 games per school and pairing with BYU you can get to 15 with 4 so I don't think there's enough incentive to go past 4.

[Hurtlocker 2,208]

2 hours ago, bullet said:

Football is 80% of the value.  Kansas and Duke are just filler.  North Carolina barely more and only because they are in a populous state.  I think all the love for UNC is very misguided.  When the Big 10 and SEC look at the numbers, they won't have nearly the enthusiasm for UNC as message board posters.  They might still take them, but it won't be because of direct TV $$s.

This.

If the Pac and ACC schools were worth B1G/SEC money, they'd be being paid that.    They're not.   Outside ND, who is still technically independent, the best remaining value in both conferences is still 60% of B1G/SEC value.    About 20-30% higher than the Big12/ACC, but not enough to move the needle significantly.  

[jTower 225]

3 hours ago, bullet said:

Football is 80% of the value.  Kansas and Duke are just filler.  North Carolina barely more and only because they are in a populous state.  I think all the love for UNC is very misguided.  When the Big 10 and SEC look at the numbers, they won't have nearly the enthusiasm for UNC as message board posters.  They might still take them, but it won't be because of direct TV $$s.

Probably true, but the original plan A for the SEC was to add Texas and UNC, not aggy and Mizzou.

[Hurtlocker 2,208]

21 minutes ago, jTower said:

Probably true, but the original plan A for the SEC was to add Texas and UNC, not aggy and Mizzou.

[camel at sea 589]

19 minutes ago, jTower said:

Probably true, but the original plan A for the SEC was to add Texas and UNC, not aggy and Mizzou.

I think UNC - if they want to leave - will need to latch themselves onto someone who brings enough value to pay the way in for them.  Texas is now off the board for that role.  Maybe they can lean on ND or FSU.

Alternatively, UNC might also see a future for the ACC that looks like the new Big 12.  If/when the big football brands go, the Tar Heels can be the biggest hoops brand in a conference that is good enough in football to pay the bills, but not good enough to pay out SECish money.  That might be fine with them.  They get to run a league, play all the local teams that they care about, and keep their focus and energy on basketball and Olympics.      

[bullet 1,596]

6 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

The dollars in 2011 were around $20 million a school.  The difference between 80% and 20% on $20 million is $12 million.  On $70 million its $42 million.  Plus in 2011, it was driven by forced carriage on conference networks.  Those are a depreciating asset.  There are a lot fewer schools that generate Big 10/SEC type dollars now.  I think its more than 1, but its definitely less than 10.  I don't think the idea of 24 team SEC and Big 10 are financially realistic.  Not with today's dollar values.

[Texas Wahoo 3,383]

 

 

[Jabberwocky 1,666]

26 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

 

 

Interesting...

I had no idea Dan Patrick still had a show. Is he on YouTube?

[Hurtlocker 2,208]

46 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

 

 

Its a long shot for Boise and UNLV to join or its a long shot for the Pac to win over those two?   I can see it either way!

[Al_4_ISU 12,409]

10 hours ago, Texas Wahoo said:

 

 

Are we even sure given the current state of Twitter that this actually the Dan Patrick show's account?

[hook me 2,080]

On 7/5/2023 at 12:58 PM, Hurtlocker said:

I'm guessing its because he has a few no votes on his idea and, to keep it from getting shot down, he keeps going back to try and turn those before he gives it to the group.   The challenge is at some point there will be a singularity event where something has to happen.   Either the schools will get what they want on that date, they'll leave on that date, or they'll choose not to leave and be fucked to have to accept anything they're offered.   He wins in two thirds of those options, so its best to delay.

['stache 21,761]

I can't figure out if the networks have made an offer and the PAC folks didn't like it and are exploring options for a better deal, or if no offer has been made by anyone. 

[BurntOrange&White 39,618]

6 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I can't figure out if the networks have made an offer and the PAC folks didn't like it and are exploring options for a better deal, or if no offer has been made by anyone. 

Yes

[Jabberwocky 1,666]

1 hour ago, hook me said:

I was thinking, "how can there be no votes if they have not been given the package, and how can he turn said no votes unless he gives them a package."

[camel at sea 589]

13 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

Its a long shot for Boise and UNLV to join or its a long shot for the Pac to win over those two?   I can see it either way!

If they're down to inviting UNLV/Boise, then it this a situation where Oregon State and Washington State are the only two left?  

[Evil Bill Obrien 3,179]

18 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

If they're down to inviting UNLV/Boise, then it this a situation where Oregon State and Washington State are the only two left?  

Yeah can't imagine CU, 'Zona, ASU, Utah, Oregon, and Washington would willingly share a conference with UNLV, Boise, SDSU and SMU.

[Eugene11 375]

i never thought Texas would be sharing a conference with the likes of auburn, georgia, miss schools and lsu but here we are....

['stache 21,761]

I'd take CSU way before Boise. They were a junior college not too long ago. I can't possibly see the academic snobs being okay with that.

[Frank Drebin 5,616]

I do not understand why academics make much of a difference in athletic conferences.

[TxEx84 375]

Because of who makes the decision to switch conferences— University Presidents.

[Hurtlocker 2,208]

3 hours ago, Jabberwocky said:

I was thinking, "how can there be no votes if they have not been given the package, and how can he turn said no votes unless he gives them a package."

Haha

He's got numbers.  There is no way you have been at this for a year and you have nothing.   He just doesn't have great numbers.   And he doesn't have numbers everyone likes.    Like a whip in congress, he's not bringing it to a vote until they have already had side conversations to read the room and know it will pass.   Maybe Oregon and Washington are great with the TV deal, IF they take 75% of the playoff deal.   Maybe Arizona and Colorado think that is too much.   Maybe Oregon State will accept anything.   Half of them could be waiting until the last minute to find out of he figures out how to pay off their $70m debt, or if they have to factor that into the cost of moving, which is considerable unless you're going to the B1G, which they aren't.

That horse trading is going on all over the place because the deal doesn't fit everyone right now.  He'll either get creative and make it pass, or those who still like it will be making plans between now and then about what happens if the groups not interested leave.

Either way, he wins if everyone accepts it or if everyone waits long enough that they can't get out in 2024.  He only loses if schools start leaving in the next three weeks.

[Jabberwocky 1,666]

 

[BurntOrange&White 39,618]

6 minutes ago, Jabberwocky said:

 

I’m highly interested to see what communication they had with the PAC and what they were told by PAC. Can’t see why they would send that letter to MW conference without being told to by PAC. 

[Welshy 907]

Big 12:

Pac 12:

[billfromlaketravis 11,358]

2 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I’m highly interested to see what communication they had with the PAC and what they were told by PAC. Can’t see why they would send that letter to MW conference without being told to by PAC. 

It feels like they had handshake or at least a verbal agreement. SDSU has no recourse and will probably be a chapter in Bruce and Stew’a realignment book. 

[jTower 225]

18 hours ago, Jabberwocky said:

Interesting...

I had no idea Dan Patrick still had a show. Is he on YouTube?

I think it's DPTV+

Edited July 7, 2023 by jTower
spelling is hard

[bullet 1,596]

7 hours ago, TxEx84 said:

Because of who makes the decision to switch conferences— University Presidents.

Or is it ESPN and Fox?!

[Satchel 6,908]

1 hour ago, bullet said:

Or is it ESPN and Fox?!

I’m laughing along with anybody who thinks schools are in charge of their own destinies when it comes to big time college football. 

[billfromlaketravis 11,358]

Imagine being U of H and your only competition is the Padres instead of: Texans, Astros, and Rockets. That’s SDSU. Horrible mismanagement. They should have been working on P5 plans the second the Chargers moved. 

[Francisco 2.0 32,318]

It's utterly amazing during this entire episode that SDSU did what they did without any kind of firm commitment from anyone.

In the future if they can produce some correspondence from the Pac showing they received a provisional invitation based on some conditional scenario that never came to fruition (or was so far-fetched it never had a chance), that will be the chefs kiss.

 

 

 

[Hairy Biped 584]

Didn't their AD say something along the lines of whether it's the PAC or the Big 12, they had a spot just a couple months ago?  If so, wow at how they overestimated things.  

[DFW Horn 6,118]

48 minutes ago, Hairy Biped said:

Didn't their AD say something along the lines of whether it's the PAC or the Big 12, they had a spot just a couple months ago?  If so, wow at how they overestimated things.  

SDSU's profile isn't much different/worse than UH or Cincinnati at a glance.

Good basketball, up & down football. I just recall reading about a pro rata, media rights payout for P5 additions to the Big 12. They don't qualify unless Yormark pulled some strings somehow.

[camel at sea 589]

2 hours ago, Hairy Biped said:

Didn't their AD say something along the lines of whether it's the PAC or the Big 12, they had a spot just a couple months ago?  If so, wow at how they overestimated things.  

He'll probably end up being right.  It seems more likely to me, than not, that at least one PAC schools eventually jumps ship at some point in the next month or two.  SDSU will be first in line to be invited when that happens.  

[notre dame joe 172]

15 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Imagine being U of H and your only competition is the Padres instead of: Texans, Astros, and Rockets. That’s SDSU. Horrible mismanagement. They should have been working on P5 plans the second the Chargers moved. 

 

4 hours ago, DFW Horn said:

SDSU's profile isn't much different/worse than UH or Cincinnati at a glance.

Good basketball, up & down football. I just recall reading about a pro rata, media rights payout for P5 additions to the Big 12. They don't qualify unless Yormark pulled some strings somehow.

If the Houston metro area were its own state, it would rank in the top 15 for population with @7 million residents.   San Diego appears to be just inside the top 25 metro areas with about half the population of Houston.   And everyone knows San Diego is so expensive that you can't move there until your kids are out of school.  They are in the conversation because the other schools in SoCal dropped football years ago. 

[DFW Horn 6,118]

32 minutes ago, notre dame joe said:

If the Houston metro area were its own state, it would rank in the top 15 for population with @7 million residents.   San Diego appears to be just inside the top 25 metro areas with about half the population of Houston.   And everyone knows San Diego is so expensive that you can't move there until your kids are out of school.  They are in the conversation because the other schools in SoCal dropped football years ago. 

Population doesn't mean shit unless they're engaged, CFB fans or you can sell them subscriptions to a PAC Network.

Look at most of the SEC metro areas.

[USC Traveler 488]

On 6/22/2023 at 10:31 PM, Hagbard Celine said:

in a 24-team b1g with 4 divisions of 6 and 11 conference games (just stay with me here) does domer keep tree or navy as their solitary OOC game?

yes i know 11 conference games is nuts but what if it came to that?  in my industry if you don't have double-digit growth YoY you are toast

since this entire thread is 10% news and 90% wild-ass speculation and conjecture, whose to say fox hasn't put 24/11 on the table?

if they have, tree would be wise to tell berkeley sorry, but we've got to go, now

I'd bet a decent chunk of money that when ND eventually comes in, Stanford will be coming in with them.

I don't think 11 games is nuts.  If the BIG goes to 24, 11 or even 12 games would make a lot of sense.  

 

ND, Miami, FSU, UNC, UVA, MD.  ND-USC protected rivalry.  ND will want to play the ACC schools every year for recruiting.

OSU, PSU, RU, IU, PU, IL.  OSU-UM and PSU-Miami protected, the latter for tv purposes and schedule balance for the top teams

UM, MSU, NW, WI, MN, IA. OSU-UM, IL-NW and NU-IA protected.

USC, UCLA, Stanford, ASU, CU and NU.  USC-ND and NU-IA protected.  

Stanford and ASU help USC/UCLA with travel.  Bay Area, PHX and Denver are big tv markets with lots of BIG alums.  NU-CU rivalry renewal.

 

Every team gets a protected rival from another division.

Play your five divisional opponents, protected rival and two teams from each of the other divisions and you're at 12 games.

[Guest]

That definitely solves for the November cupcake bullshit, as well as the 8/9 Conference game debate.

 

SEC farts in your general direction on both points.

Edited July 9, 2023 by slorch

[billfromlaketravis 11,358]

I don’t think we’ll get 9 SEC conference games until ESPN is spun off. Disney is not going to spend any money on the network until they can sell it. 
 

There’s a lot of speculation in LA that ESPN is going to lose the NBA to NBC. I wonder if laying off Van Gundy was the canary in the coal mine. 
 

Yormark might see this as well and he’s betting big on hoops with the Gonzaga and UConn bullshit. ESPN could be looking for high quality hoops inventory in the near future. 

Edited July 9, 2023 by billfromlaketravis

[USC Traveler 488]

On 6/30/2023 at 12:24 PM, camel at sea said:

Notre Dame is obviously the school to keep the closest eye on.  They haven't extended their NBC deal yet, they hired an NBC Sports guy to be AD, and the Big Ten schools just got them an AAU invite - despite the Irish being outside the Top 100 nationally in R&D output.  It feels like there are things happening behind the scenes.  

The expansion situation surrounding the Irish is hard to read.  Warren mentioned other PAC schools as targets, by name, and I think the President at Northwestern mentioned travel concerns with the L.A. schools being on an island.  The three PAC schools that help the "travel" concerns most would be Stanford, Cal, and ASU - the last of which just coincidentally (?) got an AAU invite.

https://247sports.com/college/ucla/Article/Big-Ten-realignment-Northwestern-president-not-really-thrilled-w-210657008/

Theoretically, if the Big Ten added ND, Stanford, Cal, and ASU, they could seriously limit travel issues for existing members and help the two L.A. schools in that regard, at the same time.  I don't know if ND actually pays those expansion bills, but we know there is an escalator in the B1G contract for ND already in place.  Adding western inventory could bring ESPN back to the table for the late kick games, so who knows.  

You and I are thinking very much along the same lines.  

Swarbrick referenced the fact that they were starting to talk to NBC last summer after the USC/UCLA move was announced.  Nothing has been announced on a new deal, and Swarbrick is going to retire next year.  Some ND folks that I know feel like he has been slowly laying the groundwork to go to the BIG over the last year by consistently emphasizing the fact that they don't get the same type of tv money as the BIG/SEC.  

Maybe they announce a move to the BIG next summer as part of Swarbirck leaving ?  Who better to tell donors, alums and fans that the tv money is just not there to stay independent than Swarbrick and the new AD- the former head of NBC sports ?

//

I'm not a believer in coincidence, so the idea that ND, Miami and ASU all became AAU at the same time caught my eye, especially with Swarbrick leaving and an NBC exec taking over.  I can't see the BIG taking Cal, but I can see ASU down the line if the BIG goes to 22 or 24.  It seems like they won't do anything until ND decides what they're doing, with an ND + Stanford combo seeming the most likely and realistic in the short run.

The real question for me is when do things start happening with the ACC ?  I've been thinking it would be another 10-12 years, but there have been a fair number of people like Herbie, McElroy, Finebaum (all ESPN employees btw) saying watch out for 2024 or 2025 for the ACC.  Maybe people are thinking that if ND leaves, the existing ACC schools can use that to get out of the GOR because the composition and value of the conference are no longer what they signed on for ?

 

[billfromlaketravis 11,358]

There were some recent articles published about NBC and the NBA. Basically NBC wants a Sunday night game after the NFL season and Tuesday. I assume their goal to pull the Sunday afternoon games away from ESPN, and Tuesday away from TNT. ESPN would still have NBA games, but just not as many.

So ESPN would still be looking for more hoops, and college basketball would be the only option. If hoops is 15-20% of the TV money, the SEC is leaving money on the table by tolerating so many dogshit basketball programs. Maybe better hoops + an additional conference game causes ESPN to open their wallet. 

Edited July 9, 2023 by billfromlaketravis

[USC Traveler 488]

On 6/30/2023 at 5:10 PM, Hurtlocker said:

Miami, FSU, Oregon, etc, they all have brands, they have value.   But they don't have brands and value that equates to the Big 2's per team revenue.   They are in purgatory between the haves and have nots.    Too valuable for the B12/ACC and not valuable enough for the Big 2.

 

On 7/2/2023 at 10:07 PM, bullet said:

Oregon isn’t USC or OU or UT so they aren’t a no brained but they have value

 

I agree with you both.  Miami, Clemson, FSU, UO, UW all bring some level of tv value but not at a UT/USC level, so they fall into a larger group of potential targets, including UNC, UVA, Stanford, ASU and (maybe, possibly) GT and CU.

This is where "everything else" comes into play, and tv value becomes one metric, part of a puzzle with recruiting grounds (for athletes and students), alumni engagement possibilities, academic and cultural fit, ease of travel and desire for fans and admin to visit.  

Even tv value has multiple components, as market size, conference network value and presence of tv partner owned and operated stations are all factors.  That's why Bob Thompson (Oregon grad) rated Stanford as more valuable for tv than UW or UO- the Farm's tv ratings since 2010 are close to UO and UW's ratings, but the market size, etc make them more valuable.

The BIG has a different set of priorities than the SEC, which makes it even more interesting.  Adding Miami and FSU would be home runs for the BIG because of of all the other reasons, even if their tv ratings alone wouldn't make them additive.  They're much less additive for the SEC, given that UF is already there and that SEC schools are all in states that are growing.  

UNC and UVA bring less tv value, but they would bring value to BTN of SECN and score highly on the other metrics.  Most importantly for the BIG in the long run, would bring existing BIG schools a lot of value as fast-growing, populous feeder states for students and great recruiting grounds for BIG schools.

I've said it before, but if UW was located in VA, they'd be a slamdunk for the BIG with their athletics, academics and research.  Their location in the PNW is the biggest thing holding them back.

UO doesn't bring much in any of the "everything else" categories, and the non-ratings components of their tv value aren't great.  Combined with their location, that's why I think they'll have real trouble getting a BIG invite vs ASU, which brings much, much more to the table in the "everything else" categories.

All of that said, I don't think anything happens with existing PAC schools (except Stanford coming in with ND) until after the ACC has been carved up.  The SEC doesn't want PAC schools, and the BIG has no reason to add more PAC schools until they see who they get from the ACC.

[John80 121]

Kentucky is the only school in the SEC that has much fan interest in men's basketball. Players generally don't want to go to schools where there is little fan interest in the sport so it's difficult to consistently be good. 

[gatormarc 904]

42 minutes ago, John80 said:

Kentucky is the only school in the SEC that has much fan interest in men's basketball. Players generally don't want to go to schools where there is little fan interest in the sport so it's difficult to consistently be good. 

Arkansas and Tennessee were both top 5 in attendance this year.

Edited July 10, 2023 by gatormarc