Realignment talk not going away

[BurntOrange&White 39567]

Sec will be about creating the most power they can. 

[TKthunder2 4980]

50 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Sec will be about creating the most power they can. 

Yep. They add after the ACC GOR expires, before the next TV contract and the money will be there. Sure, hypothetically everyone might be out $5mil/yr or so in the short term, but the long term results will be worth it.

[Dnaguy 11763]

8 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

Yep. They add after the ACC GOR expires, before the next TV contract and the money will be there. Sure, hypothetically everyone might be out $5mil/yr or so in the short term, but the long term results will be worth it.

 

This. My guess is that they go after UVA, UNC, Clemson, FSU

They'd take Vatech as a UVA consolation prize. But I don't see any other substitute from the ACC.

The questions is if they also expand west too.

Would the SEC take two mountain time zone teams to unlock a western time zone and fast growing western metros? Utah, Arizona, AzSt., or CU? 

[gatormarc 904]

22 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

 

This. My guess is that they go after UVA, UNC, Clemson, FSU

They'd take Vatech as a UVA consolation prize. But I don't see any other substitute from the ACC.

The questions is if they also expand west too.

Would the SEC take two mountain time zone teams to unlock a western time zone and fast growing western metros? Utah, Arizona, AzSt., or CU? 

Gross

[Jabberwocky 1666]

 

[Deej 76524]

14 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

The rust belt is dying and the South is booming.

If it keeps getting hotter every year, that trend may get turned around. 

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

Just now, Deej said:

If it keeps getting hotter every year, that trend may get turned around. 

I keep seeing articles about how Duluth is going to blow up as people flee insane heat waves.

Of course, I don't think anyone writing those articles has been there in January.

[Deej 76524]

5 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I keep seeing articles about how Duluth is going to blow up as people flee insane heat waves.

Of course, I don't think anyone writing those articles has been there in January.

Give it time. Duluth will eventually have Austin winters.

[LTbear 4157]

I'll take deep cold over extreme heat any day. I can always put on another layer. I can't peel off my skin. 

[gatormarc 904]

3 minutes ago, LTbear said:

I'll take deep cold over extreme heat any day. I can always put on another layer. I can't peel off my skin. 

The sun will do that for you.

['stache 21744]

5 minutes ago, LTbear said:

I'll take deep cold over extreme heat any day. I can always put on another layer. I can't peel off my skin. 

Yup, Minneapolis is on my list of possible relocation.

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

3 minutes ago, LTbear said:

I'll take deep cold over extreme heat any day. I can always put on another layer. I can't peel off my skin. 

As someone who deals with both (sort of) on an annual basis, I agree for this exact reason.

But our heat tops out at like 103, and our cold tick is usually -20ish over night.  Neither quite qualifies as truly extreme.

I only really dislike high heat when I have to dress up and am sweating out my good clothes.

[TKthunder2 4980]

1 hour ago, Dnaguy said:

 

This. My guess is that they go after UVA, UNC, Clemson, FSU

They'd take Vatech as a UVA consolation prize. But I don't see any other substitute from the ACC.

The questions is if they also expand west too.

Would the SEC take two mountain time zone teams to unlock a western time zone and fast growing western metros? Utah, Arizona, AzSt., or CU? 

Like UVA/VT, I could see them adding NCSU if UNC goes North (UNC fans want SEC, their admin wants Big Ten)

I don’t see the SEC going West. They made a big deal about keeping the geography tight and publicly criticized the Big Ten expansion to LA.

I don’t see them expanding past 20, because the next set of candidates will water down the brand.

FSU, Clemson, UNC, UVA, VT, Duke, Kansas, WVU

(though I admit having UK, KU, UNC, Duke  is the same conference would be appealing)

When thinking about SEC expansion now, you have to think about the future schedule.

The current SEC division model were shit so blowing them up didn’t upset anyone all too much. This new model of playing more teams regularly will be far superior, so any additions will upset the new balance and have a real negative impact.

3-6-6-6 gets you to 22 and playing everyone on a 3 year rotation with 9 conference games

4-5-5-5 gets you to 20 and playing everyone on a 3 year rotation with 9 conference games

1-9-9 gets you to 20 playing everyone on a 2 year rotation with 10 conference games

3-7-7 gets you to 18 playing everyone on a 2 year rotation with 10 conference games

1-8-8 gets you to 18 playing everyone on a 2 year rotation with 9 conference games

[gatormarc 904]

32 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

As someone who deals with both (sort of) on an annual basis, I agree for this exact reason.

But our heat tops out at like 103, and our cold tick is usually -20ish over night.  Neither quite qualifies as truly extreme.

I only really dislike high heat when I have to dress up and am sweating out my good clothes.

I've always hated the cold and prefer dealing with heat and humidity. I'm the guy wearing long johns when it's 50 out.

That said, the last couple of years have been brutal.

The heat index is off the charts this summer. I sweat through my clothes in a matter of minutes and it just doesn't evaporate out.

I simply can't go out and work in the yard without a break every 15 minutes with a fan and cold washcloths.

Edited July 13, 2023 by gatormarc

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

1 minute ago, gatormarc said:

I've always hated the cold and prefer dealing with heat and humidity. I'm the guy wearing long johns when it's 50 out.

That said, the last couple of years have been brutal.

The heat index is off the charts this summer. I sweat through my clothes in a matter of minutes and it just doesn't evaporate out.

I simply can't go out and work in the yard without a break every 15 minutes with a fan and cold washcloths.

I’ll take 90 degrees over 0, but I’d take -20 over 100+.  Especially with humidity 

[Francisco 2.0 32313]

38 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Yup, Minneapolis is on my list of possible relocation.

 

My wife spent almost 5 years there.  Snow starting in late September and staying on the ground through April, with the sky darkening around 430 in the afternoon in the winter and gray skies for almost 6 months a year fucks with someone who grew up in the Texas panhandle.

 

 

 

[gatormarc 904]

 

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

 
My wife spent almost 5 years there.  Snow starting in late September and staying on the ground through April, with the sky darkening around 430 in the afternoon in the winter and gray skies for almost 6 months a year fucks with someone who grew up in the Texas panhandle.
 
 
 

The only part of this that’s accurate is the sky getting dark that early in the dead of winter.

[DigglerontheHoof 21044]

1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

As someone who deals with both (sort of) on an annual basis, I agree for this exact reason.

But our heat tops out at like 103, and our cold tick is usually -20ish over night.  Neither quite qualifies as truly extreme.

I only really dislike high heat when I have to dress up and am sweating out my good clothes.

-20 isn't extreme?  What is?  JFC, that's cold. 

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

1 minute ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

-20 isn't extreme?  What is?  JFC, that's cold. 

I have family in Winnipeg.  I’ve experienced -45 visiting them.  It’s all relative I guess.

My definition of extreme cold is living where you have to plug all of your vehicles in at night from December through February.

[LTbear 4157]

1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

As someone who deals with both (sort of) on an annual basis, I agree for this exact reason.

But our heat tops out at like 103, and our cold tick is usually -20ish over night.  Neither quite qualifies as truly extreme.

I only really dislike high heat when I have to dress up and am sweating out my good clothes.

I live in Montana. Spend quite a few days each year when the high temp doesn't get over 0. I love it. 

['stache 21744]

1 hour ago, gatormarc said:

 

I’m good with this plan. They add more to the Big 12 than Rutgers does to the Big 10. The Big 12 will still have fewer football duds than the Big 10. Only KU really qualifies and they might actually be good this year. UConn had at least a few decent seasons in the Big East. They bring a new market and basketball prestige. They’re no worse than the last 4 adds as far as concerns if they can compete long term as part of the conference.

[LTbear 4157]

Interesting. But to be fair it wasn't that long ago the AD at SDSU assured us they would be in the PAC or the Big XII.

[TexEx15 17456]

2 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

 our cold tick is usually -20ish over night.  Neither quite qualifies as truly extreme.

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

15 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

"Wouldn't be so bad without the wind"

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

30 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I’m good with this plan. They add more to the Big 12 than Rutgers does to the Big 10. The Big 12 will still have fewer football duds than the Big 10. Only KU really qualifies and they might actually be good this year. UConn had at least a few decent seasons in the Big East. They bring a new market and basketball prestige. They’re no worse than the last 4 adds as far as concerns if they can compete long term as part of the conference.

We played out there in 2011, and a few of my buddies went to the game (one of them was living about 2 hours away in upstate New York).  Apparently their fans were just gigantic assholes - think every negative East Coast stereotype with a surprising dose of white trash tossed in.  Their student section actually attacked Cy, and pushed him down the stairs of the stadium and the kid inside broke his arm.

So if they join the Big 12, it's only fair that this guy get tossed off the Jack Trice pedestrian bridge

[wablty 38]

On 5/31/2023 at 2:48 PM, Trojan Man said:

All Arizona and Arizona State home games in September have to be at night, so get used to it if those two join the Big 12.  Check their schedules and you'll see all their other September home games are also night games.  It would be dangerous for fans to kickoff during the day early in the season.  I remember going to USC's game at ASU in 2005 and it was on October 1st, which meant it didn't get September night kickoff protection.  Fucking TV scheduled it for the middle of the day and it felt like sitting inside an oven.  You could have fried eggs on the bleachers.  The stadium ran out of ice and bottled water around halftime and I saw a few fans that had to be taken away in an ambulance, presumably for heat strokes.  Some of the older folks I went with had to leave early because it was a life or death situation for them.

Really late reply, but I was at that game.  Made the mistake of getting a little tipsy beforehand.  It was one of the biggest backlashes of my life.

When it was 21-3 ASU at halftime with Leinart knocked out (literally), I felt fantastic.  And then the heat and bodies just weighed on you, and then Bush and White kicked in and the game mimicked how you felt.  They didn't actually run out of water, though they were absolutely sending people away.  But you couldn't walk to the bathroom without someone at the stairs on a card table forcing a bottle of water into your hand as you passed.

By the end of the game I was sick to my stomach because of the 2nd half collapse and probably a mild case of heat stroke.  It might have said 100 or 102, but with 70 whatever thousand other people around you, it was outright dangerous.  Got to AC, still wound up hurling when I tried to eat a good 6 hours after my last drink.

TV sensibilities aside, it is irresponsible to have day games in Arizona, especially in the Valley, early in the season.  The place is an oven.  You don't even know how much you're sweating. 

As for ASU in conference realignment, I think they very much want to avoid the Big 12.  Crow, for all his faults, has fought long and hard to bring ASU into the upper echelons of research schools and their association with the Cali schools helps them a lot.  They sat on the outside looking in at the AAU despite being qualified forever due their low general college admission standards, despite the actual colleges and R&D side being strong.  Now it's basically on par with Michigan State, except they haven't had a medical school for in state political reasons.

Both AAU and the medical school changed within the last 6 months.  They got in and they announced the opening of a new medical school, which is an enormous R&D driver.   With their pre-existing relationship with the Mayo Clinic, I wouldn't be surprised if Arizona State expects to be a top 25ish or higher research school within the next 10-15 years and, consequently, they very much want to be around their peers... Which the Big 12 doesn't have.  Arizona State very strongly feels they are a better fit with the Big 10 (they even play D-1 scholarship hockey now) or the newest versions of SEC which include UT, Aggie, Florida, Vandy, Georgia (still waiting for their AAU invite I think), etc.  If the Pac collapses, I think it's almost more likely they and like Cal, Stanford, Utah, etc. try to go indy for a while.

Edited July 13, 2023 by wablty

[Hurtlocker 2208]

28 minutes ago, wablty said:

  If the Pac collapses, I think it's almost more likely they and like Cal, Stanford, Utah, etc. try to go indy for a while.

Why wouldn't they stay with those schools in whatever is made out of the west coast?     Oregon State and Washington State will still be there, so that's six.    Just depends on if Oregon/Washington/Colorado/Arizona stick around or if you add SDSU/UNLV and some combo like Rice and Tulane if academics is the thing.

Indy is a bitch in today's market.

[wablty 38]

3 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

Why wouldn't they stay with those schools in whatever is made out of the west coast?     Oregon State and Washington State will still be there, so that's six.    Just depends on if Oregon/Washington/Colorado/Arizona stick around or if you add SDSU/UNLV and some combo like Rice and Tulane if academics is the thing.

Indy is a bitch in today's market.

I just kind of ignored Oregon State and Wazzu because they seem destined for Big 12 if they can get it, or ostracized to the MWC.  They just haven't grown like the other schools.  I'm assuming Oregon and Washington are going to get offers from the Big Ten at some point.  Washington is a mortal lock and I think Oregon probably is too unless Uncle Phil doesn't leave them the billions I assume he is.

Edited July 13, 2023 by wablty

[wablty 38]

4 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I keep seeing articles about how Duluth is going to blow up as people flee insane heat waves.

Of course, I don't think anyone writing those articles has been there in January.

If I were a young construction worker with enough knowledge and bucks in my pocket to be start a small construction/demolition business, I'd move to Duluth.  Like now. A bunch of the old houses fucking suck. As money and people flood in, there's going to be an endless fuckton of renovation on the old buildings, and some will need to be torn down.  That city is potentially wonderful, but its money faucet really dried up for a long time and it never really modernized.

I'm 6'3" and have size 12 shoes, and it legit felt dangerous going up and especially down the stairs of the two houses we rented last year when we were doing North Shore things.  My feet didn't fit on the stairs.  Heel or toes, depending on which way you were going.  The doors are weird and tiny too. 

However if you can buy a cheap house on a decent lot, remodel or just start from scratch, it's a wonderful place to relocate to.  Superior is basically a small ocean and you can go out and have fun- Just know that it's choppier and waves are more bunched together.  Plus, y'know, all the other less choppy lakes in the area.  It's cold in the winter, yeah, but there's like 5.8 million people in Minnesota that get by just fine.

Edited July 13, 2023 by wablty

[Hurtlocker 2208]

Don't think the money infusion will come in as fast as the PAC needs, but some interesting thoughts from Front Office Sports here:

Quote

“ESPN is a differentiator for this company,” he told analysts. “We just have to figure out how to monetize it.”

Armed with a contract extension through 2026, Iger told CNBC he’s open to a strategic partner for ESPN, which could take the form of a joint venture or equity stake. Here are seven possible candidates:

DraftKings: The sports betting giant and Caesars Entertainment signed co-exclusive deals to serve as ESPN’s designated daily fantasy and sportsbook providers in 2020. DraftKings also has a deal with Meadowlark Media, the content startup launched by former ESPN president John Skipper and on-air personality Dan Le Batard. Could Skipper and Le Batard triumphantly return to ESPN’s Bristol campus?

FanDuel: The other sports betting power player has money to burn and is willing to spend it. They proved it by handing Pat McAfee the richest contract in sports media: $120 million for four years. Now that McAfee is taking his eponymous show to ESPN for $18 million a year, FanDuel could finally turn the network’s sports betting ambitions into a reality.

Fanatics: Michael Rubin’s privately held company seems to be everywhere in sports these days, launching a live events division and signing a $150 million to acquire PointBet’s U.S. operations. No sports billionaire has better-varied contacts than Rubin. Just witness his recent 4th of July party in the Hamptons that attracted the likes of NBA MVP Joel Embiid, Tom Brady, James Harden, Joe Burrow, and Odell Beckham Jr.

Amazon: The tech giants like Amazon, Apple, and Google/YouTube have finally leaped into live sports via rights deals with leagues such as the NFL, NBA, and MLS. With its trillion-dollar valuation, Amazon could simply buy ESPN – and take over its constellation of live sports rights, from the NFL and NBA to MLB and college football. “Why should Amazon bid for (sports) rights when it can just buy them,” asked one source.

Comcast: The personal and business rivalry between Comcast boss Brian Roberts and Disney’s Iger dates back decades. Don’t forget Comcast launched a $54 billion hostile takeover attempt against the Mouse House in 2004. The opportunistic Roberts could see this as a way to win back a piece of the NBA, which NBC Sports aired from 1990 to 2002.

Saudi Arabia: The Saudis shook up the hidebound golf industry by bankrolling Greg Norman’s rebel LIV Golf against the PGA Tour. The oil-rich nation could launch a new investment fund focused entirely on athletic entities. If entities like the Qatar Investment Authority are willing to purchase minority stakes in companies such as Monumental Sports, why not ESPN?

Omaha Productions: Peyton Manning’s fast-rising production company is already in bed business-wise with ESPN. It produces everything from the award-winning “Monday Night Football with Peyton and Eli” to Pat McAfee’s alternative college football telecasts.

ESPN has long served as a cash cow for parent Disney. Hearst has held a 20% stake in the company since 1990.

ESPN declined to comment on Iger’s remarks to CNBC. 

 

[wablty 38]

17 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

Don't think the money infusion will come in as fast as the PAC needs, but some interesting thoughts from Front Office Sports here:

 

Our shooty hoops has a bad history with Vegas, but football is fine.  Just the normal occasional murder, rapist and pedophile.

If gambling can somehow keep west coast football from disintegrating in the way it's heading, and largely because Larry Scott somehow fucked up an easy win when it was offered to him, great.

My preference is the Pac 12 just becomes the Pac 10 and makes enough money to compete.  I just don't know if that's possible without the LA schools.  Seattle, Phoenix and Denver are obviously big deals, and Oregon = Nike, but...  That's not enough on its own.  Not without SoCal.  I think everyone's just tapping the breaks and waiting to see if the big 2 conferences are going to make an offer.  As CFB shuffles the teams around, the Bay Area, Seattle and Phoenix aren't going to be left out in the grander schemes.  There's just too much money in the areas, although the Bay doesn't really care about its teams.

Edited July 13, 2023 by wablty

[Evil Bill Obrien 3175]

 

So if the ACC is hopping on the CW...where the hell does the PAC think there games are going to get airtime? KUBE 57 out of Baytown?

 

[Trojan Man 429]

1 hour ago, wablty said:

Really late reply, but I was at that game.  Made the mistake of getting a little tipsy beforehand.  It was one of the biggest backlashes of my life.

When it was 21-3 ASU at halftime with Leinart knocked out (literally), I felt fantastic.  And then the heat and bodies just weighed on you, and then Bush and White kicked in and the game mimicked how you felt.  They didn't actually run out of water, though they were absolutely sending people away.  But you couldn't walk to the bathroom without someone at the stairs on a card table forcing a bottle of water into your hand as you passed.

By the end of the game I was sick to my stomach because of the 2nd half collapse and probably a mild case of heat stroke.  It might have said 100 or 102, but with 70 whatever thousand other people around you, it was outright dangerous.  Got to AC, still wound up hurling when I tried to eat a good 6 hours after my last drink.

TV sensibilities aside, it is irresponsible to have day games in Arizona, especially in the Valley, early in the season.  The place is an oven.  You don't even know how much you're sweating. 

As for ASU in conference realignment, I think they very much want to avoid the Big 12.  Crow, for all his faults, has fought long and hard to bring ASU into the upper echelons of research schools and their association with the Cali schools helps them a lot.  They sat on the outside looking in at the AAU despite being qualified forever due their low general college admission standards, despite the actual colleges and R&D side being strong.  Now it's basically on par with Michigan State, except they haven't had a medical school for in state political reasons.

Both AAU and the medical school changed within the last 6 months.  They got in and they announced the opening of a new medical school, which is an enormous R&D driver.   With their pre-existing relationship with the Mayo Clinic, I wouldn't be surprised if Arizona State expects to be a top 25ish or higher research school within the next 10-15 years and, consequently, they very much want to be around their peers... Which the Big 12 doesn't have.  Arizona State very strongly feels they are a better fit with the Big 10 (they even play D-1 scholarship hockey now) or the newest versions of SEC which include UT, Aggie, Florida, Vandy, Georgia (still waiting for their AAU invite I think), etc.  If the Pac collapses, I think it's almost more likely they and like Cal, Stanford, Utah, etc. try to go indy for a while.

TV should change the rules so the Arizona schools can't host day games before the third Saturday of October because early October can still be brutal.  I wasn't drinking that day and I made sure to be well-hydrated beforehand so I wasn't hurting too bad, plus the outcome of the game helped, but that was my one and only Arizona State visit.  As for ASU's future affiliation I think the B1G is a longshot.  They're prioritizing Notre Dame and ACC teams before they will head West again, with the only exception maybe being Stanford if that's what it takes to land the Irish.  If they do come West again Stanford, Washington, Oregon and maybe even Colorado are higher on the wishlist than ASU.

I'm also not sure if the media money will even be there to support massive conferences, given the fact almost all of the big earners are off the board and the future for cable/broadcasters is hazy at best.  If we end up going from a cable model to a 100% streaming DTC model that means having popular brands instead of large markets and maximizing your biggest matchups will make you the most money.  Scheduling fewer games between USC/Michigan and Ohio State/Penn State because you have to make room for USC/ASU and Ohio State/Stanford is a money-losing move in that environment.  Notre Dame + a friend still makes everyone in the B1G richer, but that would raise an already high bar to clear for future invitations even higher.  Teams like Florida State and Oregon and Washington have trouble adding enough revenue right now (while Notre Dame is still independent) to justify an invitation so I don't know how ASU will do it.  Since no existing member will take a pay cut to make room for new members 18 teams, maybe 20, feels like it might be the limit for how large the B1G and the SEC can become.

If things play out this way the best move for teams outside the B1G and the SEC is to consolidate as much as possible into a third conference, and it's looking like the Big 12 will become that conference.  The ACC is fucked by their very long GOR and below market contract plus the public desire for all their best teams to leave ASAP.  After another decade of the drama that has played out among the ACC haves and have nots this offseason their relationships will disintegrate.  The Pac 12 is fucked by poor leadership, poor geography/time zones, apathetic fanbases and prioritizing academics over athletics.  The Big 12 doesn't have these problems.  They could potentially have teams in all 4 time zones and fill TV windows all day, they survived losing their most valuable teams, their remaining teams know they most likely aren't getting a B1G or SEC golden ticket, they generally field pretty competitive and well-supported teams in the revenue sports and they aren't run by schools like Cal that are openly hostile to revenue sports and think the size of their library has any bearing on media value.  If the ACC and the Pac 12 die or are whittled down to their least valuable schools that frees up more money and more windows for a hypothetical third place conference.  They could get their payout higher than the ACC, the current Big 12 or the Pac 12 will make on their own even if it's not quite B1G/SEC money.  Basically, for ASU it comes down to hedging your bet by taking the safe and sure thing (Big 12 invitation) or going all in on the longshot (B1G invitation).

6 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

Don't think the money infusion will come in as fast as the PAC needs, but some interesting thoughts from Front Office Sports here:

 

That would be pretty rich if the Pac 12 takes oppressive Saudi blood money after all the fuss certain Pac 12 schools made about the possibility of inviting red state religious schools due to ethical and moral concerns.

[S11 16]

10 minutes ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

 

So if the ACC is hopping on the CW...where the hell does the PAC think there games are going to get airtime? KUBE 57 out of Baytown?

 

1-  This ACC deal is just the Raycom sublicensed games that were on Bally before they cratered.  Roughly one game a week.  Plenty of room to have another per week and possibly after dark too.

2- In light of this, if the PAC can't get the deal done it's because it wasn't getting one done with the CW for the right price.  This isn't the ACC's top games or even in their top 30.

[Hurtlocker 2208]

3 minutes ago, S11 said:

In light of this, if the PAC can't get the deal done it's because it wasn't getting one done with the CW for the right price. 

This, trust me, they've seen numbers.   They just haven't seen numbers to keep everyone happy.

Also, i think they're dealing with something the B12 didn't have to deal with, which is the PacNet.

Contractually i think they fed around a third of their football games to the PACN, or around two games per team per year.   Dropping to ten means that jumps to 40%, leaving a lot less to sell to other partners.   Their best bet is unloading PACN to a buyer and including those games as a rights deal going forward.   That is far more difficult to cobble together than just selling rights.   Its an anchor currently.

[Hurtlocker 2208]

5 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

 

Not sure what happened there, but it won't let me delete, enjoy this picture of a cat in a silly hat!

Edited July 13, 2023 by Hurtlocker

[S11 16]

6 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

This, trust me, they've seen numbers.   They just haven't seen numbers to keep everyone happy.

Also, i think they're dealing with something the B12 didn't have to deal with, which is the PacNet.

Contractually i think they fed around a third of their football games to the PACN, or around two games per team per year.   Dropping to ten means that jumps to 40%, leaving a lot less to sell to other partners.   Their best bet is unloading PACN to a buyer and including those games as a rights deal going forward.   That is far more difficult to cobble together than just selling rights.   Its an anchor currently.

The PAC net was around 37 of their 81 games last year or just under 46% and both from a money (averaged 2.5M per year since inception per-school) and exposure (fewer than 15M subscribers vs 25M ESPN+, 74M FS1, 76M ESPN) it's been a disaster.

How well they can move on from it with regard to cost and legal obligation will be huge.

I can't see the money getting better- replacing the revenue USC/UCLA drive in LA's market via carriage fees with the dubious proposition of getting either of SMU and San Diego State to get any real money forcing cable providers in DFW or SD to push the P12N is laughable.   Remember TCU & SDSU couldn't get the MWC network on and the PAC doesn't have FOX or ESPN in their corner.  That's before we look at the impact of the swapout for ads on a hard to find platform.

[Hurtlocker 2208]

6 minutes ago, S11 said:

The PAC net was around 37 of their 81 games last year or just under 46% and both from a money (averaged 2.5M per year since inception per-school) and exposure (fewer than 15M subscribers vs 25M ESPN+, 74M FS1, 76M ESPN) it's been a disaster.

How well they can move on from it with regard to cost and legal obligation will be huge.

I can't see the money getting better- replacing the revenue USC/UCLA drive in LA's market via carriage fees with the dubious proposition of getting either of SMU and San Diego State to get any real money forcing cable providers in DFW or SD to push the P12N is laughable.   Remember TCU & SDSU couldn't get the MWC network on and the PAC doesn't have FOX or ESPN in their corner.  That's before we look at the impact of the swapout for ads on a hard to find platform.

Agreed, i think the only solution they have at the moment is to sell the PacN at a loss, to get out from under the $70m they owe, and then bundle everything into a rights fee.

Who needs a linear network, is the real question.   If the answer is no one, they're fucked.

[wablty 38]

1 hour ago, Trojan Man said:

TV should change the rules so the Arizona schools can't host day games before the third Saturday of October because early October can still be brutal.  I wasn't drinking that day and I made sure to be well-hydrated beforehand so I wasn't hurting too bad, plus the outcome of the game helped, but that was my one and only Arizona State visit.  As for ASU's future affiliation I think the B1G is a longshot.  They're prioritizing Notre Dame and ACC teams before they will head West again, with the only exception maybe being Stanford if that's what it takes to land the Irish.  If they do come West again Stanford, Washington, Oregon and maybe even Colorado are higher on the wishlist than ASU.

I'm also not sure if the media money will even be there to support massive conferences, given the fact almost all of the big earners are off the board and the future for cable/broadcasters is hazy at best.  If we end up going from a cable model to a 100% streaming DTC model that means having popular brands instead of large markets and maximizing your biggest matchups will make you the most money.  Scheduling fewer games between USC/Michigan and Ohio State/Penn State because you have to make room for USC/ASU and Ohio State/Stanford is a money-losing move in that environment.  Notre Dame + a friend still makes everyone in the B1G richer, but that would raise an already high bar to clear for future invitations even higher.  Teams like Florida State and Oregon and Washington have trouble adding enough revenue right now (while Notre Dame is still independent) to justify an invitation so I don't know how ASU will do it.  Since no existing member will take a pay cut to make room for new members 18 teams, maybe 20, feels like it might be the limit for how large the B1G and the SEC can become.

If things play out this way the best move for teams outside the B1G and the SEC is to consolidate as much as possible into a third conference, and it's looking like the Big 12 will become that conference.  The ACC is fucked by their very long GOR and below market contract plus the public desire for all their best teams to leave ASAP.  After another decade of the drama that has played out among the ACC haves and have nots this offseason their relationships will disintegrate.  The Pac 12 is fucked by poor leadership, poor geography/time zones, apathetic fanbases and prioritizing academics over athletics.  The Big 12 doesn't have these problems.  They could potentially have teams in all 4 time zones and fill TV windows all day, they survived losing their most valuable teams, their remaining teams know they most likely aren't getting a B1G or SEC golden ticket, they generally field pretty competitive and well-supported teams in the revenue sports and they aren't run by schools like Cal that are openly hostile to revenue sports and think the size of their library has any bearing on media value.  If the ACC and the Pac 12 die or are whittled down to their least valuable schools that frees up more money and more windows for a hypothetical third place conference.  They could get their payout higher than the ACC, the current Big 12 or the Pac 12 will make on their own even if it's not quite B1G/SEC money.  Basically, for ASU it comes down to hedging your bet by taking the safe and sure thing (Big 12 invitation) or going all in on the longshot (B1G invitation).

That would be pretty rich if the Pac 12 takes oppressive Saudi blood money after all the fuss certain Pac 12 schools made about the possibility of inviting red state religious schools due to ethical and moral concerns.

There is no hedge.  ASU can dick around and wait and wait and wait, and they'll still be able to walk into the Big 12 whenever/if ever they feel like there's nothing else on the table.  The same reasons for the potential lack of a B1G or SEC invite apply both ways.  It is an enormous school with an enormous alumni basis in a top 10 city (and the ONLY university besides for profits in said top 10 city, which is extraordinarily unusual).  That's why I think they'd rather go Indy with the elite academic Cali schools and "Figure things out" for a few years.  It may be more beneficial for them, and other schools in the remnant Pac, to take some time and improve their marketability and brand when they're at a low.  This is the absolute doldrums for the fanbase.  They've gone through a series of bad hires since Snyder. 

At some point, a school that is the only show in town (actually the only university in town) is going to do a few things right, and maybe once they do a few things right they won't be in a situation like they are now, when the last 4 star recruit from their home base was in 2019.  And that guy wound up fighting back from medical retirement, being a 2x All Conference DE, and then essentially ended his career after a minute in the CFL because he's too hurt to play.

Cable and ESPN are diminishing every year, but the base isn't going to change that much.  60 year olds that wanna push the remote button and watch football aren't leaving.  They're just going to get increasingly annoyed when they're told they have to subscribe to X # of systems.  ASU happens to have an enormous retiree base from the midwest in its back yard.  Sure, Bob the retired engineer in Scottsdale might be a Michigan fan, but he's still probably going to watch ASU too, beyond the normal ASU fanbase... which is diminished and suffering under the Cardinals presence, but they did hold off the Cards on attendance and fanbase until the Glendale stadium opened up.

I just don't see a model of CFB that, in the end, decides ASU is on the same tier as, say, Iowa State or whatever.  If the numbers aren't there, it's because someone hasn't sold the product properly yet.  Thus, they'll wait it out as long as possible to figure out why they currently might not belong.

At the end of the day, there's just too much value to go along with "Ok, our new rival is Kansas or Texas Tech."

Edited July 13, 2023 by wablty

[Hurtlocker 2208]

7 minutes ago, wablty said:

I just don't see a model of CFB that, in the end, decides ASU is on the same tier as, say, Iowa State or whatever.  If the numbers aren't there, it's because someone hasn't sold the product properly yet.  Thus, they'll wait it out as long as possible to figure out why they currently might not belong.

At the end of the day, there's just too much value to go along with "Ok, our new rival is Kansas or Texas Tech."

I can see this, but, at the end of the day, that's about where they reside right now.   Likely, as you say, by not marketing it well enough and not competing well enough.

ASU ranks 43rd in FBS in average football attendance over the past 5 years, running at 59% of capacity.   So, big stadium, small crowds.   And while that's not the end all be all number, it is a pretty good indicator to how fanatic one's fanbase is.  ASU is still in the top 50, but it's not exactly saying "we're worth all the accolades you'd think we'd have being a massive university in a massive market."

Now to your examples, Kansas has been a shit show and is not in the Top 50, so ASU has them, but Kansas State is in 37th place and has had their percent of capacity around 81% for 5 years, Tech is 29th in average attendance and 77% full, and Iowa State is 24th and running at 79% capacity.

As for TV, ASU's biggest audience last year was 1.92m against USC, their biggest non blue blood game was 1.2m against Utah.   Kansas State's biggest non-blue blood game was 3.4m, Tech's was 2.5m and Iowa State's was 4.4m

Branding starts at home.   ASU could be a powerhouse, but it isn't currently even in the same tier as the schools you mentioned.   It is potential, looking for an audience.

 

[Gidnik 3251]

fox sports national writer

[camel at sea 589]

2 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

Branding starts at home.   ASU could be a powerhouse, but it isn't currently even in the same tier as the schools you mentioned.   It is potential, looking for an audience.

You mean to say that just because FIU is in Miami-Dade, and has 45,000 undergrads enrolled, that they aren't highly valuable?  

Baylor and TCU both outdrew ASU at the gate last year, by more than 2,000 fans per game each.  I love the Sparky logo, but as an athletics brand, they're "mid" at best.  Their football program hasn't been truly relevant ever, and hasn't been on the cusp of being relevant since Frank Kush left the HC job there in 1979.  Their hoops program has never done anything.

 

[Trojan Man 429]

2 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

I can see this, but, at the end of the day, that's about where they reside right now.   Likely, as you say, by not marketing it well enough and not competing well enough.

ASU ranks 43rd in FBS in average football attendance over the past 5 years, running at 59% of capacity.   So, big stadium, small crowds.   And while that's not the end all be all number, it is a pretty good indicator to how fanatic one's fanbase is.  ASU is still in the top 50, but it's not exactly saying "we're worth all the accolades you'd think we'd have being a massive university in a massive market."

Now to your examples, Kansas has been a shit show and is not in the Top 50, so ASU has them, but Kansas State is in 37th place and has had their percent of capacity around 81% for 5 years, Tech is 29th in average attendance and 77% full, and Iowa State is 24th and running at 79% capacity.

As for TV, ASU's biggest audience last year was 1.92m against USC, their biggest non blue blood game was 1.2m against Utah.   Kansas State's biggest non-blue blood game was 3.4m, Tech's was 2.5m and Iowa State's was 4.4m

Branding starts at home.   ASU could be a powerhouse, but it isn't currently even in the same tier as the schools you mentioned.   It is potential, looking for an audience.

 

Arizona State has been called a sleeping giant for as long as I can remember.  I have never seen them wake up.  At some point they're comatose instead of sleeping.  On paper they should be much better than they have been but for whatever reason (pro sports town, too many transplant residents in their backyard, poor hiring, lack of administrative support) it has never clicked.  Their profile screams Big 12 to me.  They do have a couple things going for them that could help get into the B1G.  Arizona has a lot of Midwestern retirees and tourists.  I don't have a source for this but the eyeball test tells me Phoenix is one of the cities outside of the B1G's footprint with the highest amount of B1G alumni/fans.  Phoenix also has many Californian residents and ASU would do a lot more to ease travel for USC and UCLA than Oregon or Washington so that might get them Yes votes from the LA schools.

But I go back to the money and I just don't see how ASU clears the hurdle of adding enough revenue to pay for themselves and make the rest of the B1G schools at least a few more bucks.  Even when you consider ASU vs B1G teams is worth more than ASU vs Pac 12 or Big 12 teams it's still not worth the B1G's current contract or what the next contract will look like.  ASU and Oregon and Stanford and Washington are having a hard time getting networks to pay them $30M/year right now.  You need some serious voodoo to suddenly make them worth over twice that, especially when you consider any further B1G additions will water down the frequency of the blockbuster matchups the networks salivated over when signing this deal unless the B1G adds more conference games.

[bullet 1596]

11 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I’ll take 90 degrees over 0, but I’d take -20 over 100+.  Especially with humidity 

I don't know about Iowa, but in Texas the heat burns off the humidity when it gets over 100.  You can feel the heat and dryness when you hit over 100.

On 7/12/2023 at 10:50 PM, BurntOrange&White said:

Sec will be about creating the most power they can. 

Which is why I think FSU and Clemson are tops on their list and UW and Oregon are tops on the Big 10 list.

[bullet 1596]

6 hours ago, wablty said:

There is no hedge.  ASU can dick around and wait and wait and wait, and they'll still be able to walk into the Big 12 whenever/if ever they feel like there's nothing else on the table.  The same reasons for the potential lack of a B1G or SEC invite apply both ways.  It is an enormous school with an enormous alumni basis in a top 10 city (and the ONLY university besides for profits in said top 10 city, which is extraordinarily unusual).  That's why I think they'd rather go Indy with the elite academic Cali schools and "Figure things out" for a few years.  It may be more beneficial for them, and other schools in the remnant Pac, to take some time and improve their marketability and brand when they're at a low.  This is the absolute doldrums for the fanbase.  They've gone through a series of bad hires since Snyder. 

At some point, a school that is the only show in town (actually the only university in town) is going to do a few things right, and maybe once they do a few things right they won't be in a situation like they are now, when the last 4 star recruit from their home base was in 2019.  And that guy wound up fighting back from medical retirement, being a 2x All Conference DE, and then essentially ended his career after a minute in the CFL because he's too hurt to play.

Cable and ESPN are diminishing every year, but the base isn't going to change that much.  60 year olds that wanna push the remote button and watch football aren't leaving.  They're just going to get increasingly annoyed when they're told they have to subscribe to X # of systems.  ASU happens to have an enormous retiree base from the midwest in its back yard.  Sure, Bob the retired engineer in Scottsdale might be a Michigan fan, but he's still probably going to watch ASU too, beyond the normal ASU fanbase... which is diminished and suffering under the Cardinals presence, but they did hold off the Cards on attendance and fanbase until the Glendale stadium opened up.

I just don't see a model of CFB that, in the end, decides ASU is on the same tier as, say, Iowa State or whatever.  If the numbers aren't there, it's because someone hasn't sold the product properly yet.  Thus, they'll wait it out as long as possible to figure out why they currently might not belong.

At the end of the day, there's just too much value to go along with "Ok, our new rival is Kansas or Texas Tech."

I think all those Michigan and Notre Dame fans moving down aren't changing their stripes.  Arizona St.'s TV ratings are pretty mediocre.  In the Sic-em analysis, guess who is just ahead of them at #46----Iowa St.

[BurntOrange&White 39567]

30 minutes ago, bullet said:

I don't know about Iowa, but in Texas the heat burns off the humidity when it gets over 100.  You can feel the heat and dryness when you hit over 100.

Which is why I think FSU and Clemson are tops on their list and UW and Oregon are tops on the Big 10 list.

Sec really likes geographical fit. That’s why Virginia is talked about. The most talent rich football states are in the southeast. Lock those states within your conference and choke out the rest 

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

Which is why I think FSU and Clemson are tops on their list and UW and Oregon are tops on the Big 10 list.

Most of the time when you too 100 in Iowa, there’s a nearly visible blanket of death fog humidity that wrecks your ass.

I always assumed that there’s quite a difference between 100 in Houston and 100 in Lubbock.

[bullet 1596]

5 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Most of the time when you too 100 in Iowa, there’s a nearly visible blanket of death fog humidity that wrecks your ass.

I always assumed that there’s quite a difference between 100 in Houston and 100 in Lubbock.

No, it just burns it all off in Houston.  Now 90 in Houston vs. 90 in Lubbock is very different.

[Magus Ossis 2783]

5 minutes ago, bullet said:

No, it just burns it all off in Houston.  Now 90 in Houston vs. 90 in Lubbock is very different.

As someone who has experienced triple digit temperatures in every Big 12 town in Texas, please let me assure you that the science does not lie. Our bodies do not cool themselves as easily in 100 degree humid environments as they do in arid ones. And heat does not burn off humidity. The same partial pressure of water in the atmosphere will be reflected by a decreasing relative humidity as temperature increases, but this is not the same thing at all.