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Realignment talk not going away

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Posted by Sandbagging Steve,

How many teams will be left when the dust settles in a few years? I think there's a way for all the teams to still have some involvement. I will explain that at the end of this list. Here's my list of the top 32 programs and a list if it goes to 48. There's some debate if it goes to 48, but not much debate if it stops at 32. I guess one could debate Arizona State, but that's about it. The top 32 at least come close to carrying their own weight. Everyone below that line is losing money for t

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USC Traveler

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4 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

I'd add that one of the biggest cons that is keeping them in orbit right now, and maybe by GK design, is the Pac schools' equity in PacNet.   Clearly USC and UCLA have no issue walking away from it, they've hit gold.   But none of the others, even the Ducks and Huskies, seem to have that lucrative escape set up for them.   

Some people ran the numbers during Covid when the Big Ten sold another 10% of BTN to Fox for cash, that the PacNet could be worth about $250m.   If they got that number, which I doubt, but let's play nice, that means roughly $17-19m per remaining school after paying off Comcast/Holiday bowl debt.   

That is probably enough to keep CU/AZ at the table, even if it is just for one more contract.  They'll want to wait it out until USC/UCLA pay the debt, but don't get the sale, and that sale, spread over time, adds $2-3m per year to a contract with a higher valuation than they can get if they keep the PacNet.

That network is an anchor on their earnings right now.   It takes inventory without showing it to enough people to pay what they need and, with ten teams, a greater percent of their inventory has to go to it than before.   

The Pac is likey worth the new B12's numbers if they had all their inventory to sell.   The only way to do that is dump the PacNet.  At ten, they'd even make more writing off the loss of scuttling the network than they would in trying to keep it operational.

Kudos to you HL- this is a really good point that no one else is talking about.  

BTN has real value because it's tied to the BIG.

With the BIG having added USC and UCLA, I agree that the WAC10's best option to increase their media value would be to make all their games available.

Unless they get Apple or someone else to buy the network assets as part of a media deal, the key question is (obviously) how much is PACN worth as a distribution outlet that is disconnected from the PAC in a world where cable is rapidly declining ?  

Also- were the original distribution deals that Grifter Larry cut with Comcast, Spectrum, etc tied to the PAC media contract ?  Are they up for renewal next year ?

I don't think there's a lot of value in the network either with or without PAC games involved, but it is worth something.  How much ?

 

//

Let's say CU and UA make the move to the B12, which causes the PAC media deal to become even worse, to a point that the other 4C schools jump.

UO and UW say they'll come too, but they want to bring along Cal and SDSU for recruiting.  B12 says yes.

At that point, PACN has no real value connected to a CFB media deal.  It would be worth whatever it's worth as a standalone entity.

That amount might be so small that none of the schools that have left have really given up very much.

 

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Aggy should abstain so the vote is 13-0 and then we can then brand it on their dog.

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oSuJeff97

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3 hours ago, statsman said:

If the PAC schools could accept reality, the conference can start stabilizing, and become the #3 conference. However, I suspect there are a few schools that won’t surrender their ambitions.

Honestly I don't see any way for the Pac to be the #3 conference, even if Oregon and Washington stay. (Obviously that's way out the window if/when both leave for the B1G.)

There just aren't enough people at all of the other schools who care enough about football to put them ahead of either the Big 12 or ACC.

Oregon/Washington (from a brand/viewership standpoint) are marginally better than anything in the Big 12, but they aren't OU/Texas, so them being marginally better than the top legacy Big 12 schools isn't enough to off-set the fact pretty much all of the Big 12 fan bases are highly engaged and drive consistent viewership numbers all the way down the line, unlike the bulk of the remaining Pac schools that mostly don't care about football.

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Al_4_ISU

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6 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Honestly I don't see any way for the Pac to be the #3 conference, even if Oregon and Washington stay. (Obviously that's way out the window if/when both leave for the B1G.)

There just aren't enough people at all of the other schools who care enough about football to put them ahead of either the Big 12 or ACC.

Oregon/Washington (from a brand/viewership standpoint) are marginally better than anything in the Big 12, but they aren't OU/Texas, so them being marginally better than the top legacy Big 12 schools isn't enough to off-set the fact pretty much all of the Big 12 fan bases are highly engaged and drive consistent viewership numbers all the way down the line, unlike the bulk of the remaining Pac schools that mostly don't care about football.

Exactly.

If the west coast decided tomorrow to embrace college football as their passion, the Pac would be #3.  The likelihood of that happening is next to nothing.

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Hurtlocker

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1 hour ago, USC Traveler said:

Kudos to you HL- this is a really good point that no one else is talking about.  

BTN has real value because it's tied to the BIG.

With the BIG having added USC and UCLA, I agree that the WAC10's best option to increase their media value would be to make all their games available.

Unless they get Apple or someone else to buy the network assets as part of a media deal, the key question is (obviously) how much is PACN worth as a distribution outlet that is disconnected from the PAC in a world where cable is rapidly declining ?  

Also- were the original distribution deals that Grifter Larry cut with Comcast, Spectrum, etc tied to the PAC media contract ?  Are they up for renewal next year ?

I don't think there's a lot of value in the network either with or without PAC games involved, but it is worth something.  How much ?

 

//

Let's say CU and UA make the move to the B12, which causes the PAC media deal to become even worse, to a point that the other 4C schools jump.

UO and UW say they'll come too, but they want to bring along Cal and SDSU for recruiting.  B12 says yes.

At that point, PACN has no real value connected to a CFB media deal.  It would be worth whatever it's worth as a standalone entity.

That amount might be so small that none of the schools that have left have really given up very much.

 

Yeah, it gets a bit grey here because I'm not sure if the network valuation includes the inventory or not.   What I do know is that within the contract that included Fox and ESPN, the PACN received 2 football games from each school, or 24 games per season, which is kind of the minimum you need to start your own network.

USC/UCLA are gone now though and their 4 games are leaving next year.   Meaning they either need to get back to 12 or they need to add 2.4 games per year per school to feed the PACN beast. Creative scheduling be damned to napkin math, you really only have 6 home games a year per team.   So, at ten, you have 40% of your inventory off the market and unable to sell.

The B12, who didn't have a conference network, just sold 100% of its games for $32m/team/year.   If the Pac is on even financial footing, they should see a contract of around $20m/year/school for the 60% of inventory it did sell.   It will need to make up the difference with the PacN.   Either it:

  • Starts paying out $10-15m per year for that 40% of inventory after never really paying more than $3-4m prior or
  • The Pac takes back the inventory, sells the PACN infrastructure (which has value, there are studios and uplinks, and people with expertise - maybe $100m?), and sells 100% of their inventory like the B12 or ACC did, which would likely eclipse the B12 by $2-5m per team per year due to the asset sale.

We approach the sunken cost fallacy realm here, but if GK is dangling a carrot from a bad investment, Colorado will want to wait until the last minute to see what that is.   Their big fear will be leaving for a big loss (buyout, pay comcast debt) and then also missing out on a future asset sale.    It may be a dilapidated house in a bad neighborhood, but its still an asset.

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2 hours ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Honestly I don't see any way for the Pac to be the #3 conference, even if Oregon and Washington stay. (Obviously that's way out the window if/when both leave for the B1G.)

There just aren't enough people at all of the other schools who care enough about football to put them ahead of either the Big 12 or ACC.

Oregon/Washington (from a brand/viewership standpoint) are marginally better than anything in the Big 12, but they aren't OU/Texas, so them being marginally better than the top legacy Big 12 schools isn't enough to off-set the fact pretty much all of the Big 12 fan bases are highly engaged and drive consistent viewership numbers all the way down the line, unlike the bulk of the remaining Pac schools that mostly don't care about football.

Yeah, I looked at some ratings the other day, and I'm now not really sold on anyone from the PAC outside UW/UO. The AZ schools especially had shockingly low numbers, and I truly cannot remember the last time either was relevant in college football. I think the Big XII should stand pat for now and see what happens. If BIG and SEC say they are done at 16 and the networks tell them the same, then see if UO/UW/Clemson/FSU would form the base for a new number 3 conference. I think several of the legacy Big XII schools would get invited. I was all for the four corners schools a few months ago, but I'd rather just go with what we have for now unless and until those four make a move. 

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Hurtlocker

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for those who don't want to dig into the tweet:

Sources: Pac-12 will not announce new TV deal at media day this week

Quote

The wait for a Pac-12 television deal continues.

The conference will not announce a new media rights contract this week, sources tell Yahoo Sports, likely extending into August the league’s year-long pursuit of new TV suitors.

The Pac-12 holds its annual football media day Friday in Las Vegas, where coaches, athletes and administrators gather for a celebration of the upcoming season. The marquee event was seen as an ideal setting to announce a new television deal. However, the league is not prepared to announce a contract despite what has been described as “accelerated” progress in negotiations.

A timeline for a Pac-12 deal has been a moving target. Over the last several months, conference presidents have set deadlines for a deal, none of which have been met. The expectation is that the league will finalize a TV package before the 2023 season kicks off, but even that is a changeable date. One source described the most recent timeline as the “near future.”

The Pac-12’s future broadcasting rights have, for a year now, been at the center of the college football world, with implications that could reshape the entire landscape of the industry. Conferences and their members rely on media rights deals as their chief revenue generators. The Pac-12 distributed $37 million to each school in 2022-23, much of it from its current television package.

The league’s TV deal, with ESPN and Fox, expires next July.

The pursuit of a new package began last summer, when USC and UCLA announced their intention to leave the Pac-12 for the Big Ten starting in fall of 2024. The stunning news hurtled the Pac-12 into an unstable situation, where the loss of the Los Angeles market dented the league’s media rights value.

Other leagues, namely the Big 12, mobilized to attract Pac-12 members, and one school is believed to be more susceptible to leaving than the rest: Colorado. A new TV package is essential in keeping intact the 10 schools and, at a later date, expanding to add others, such as potential targets San Diego State and SMU.

Both the visibility and monetary structure of a TV package are imperative to keep members such as Colorado from exiting for the Big 12, which leaped ahead of the Pac-12 last fall by signing its own new TV deal with ESPN and Fox starting in 2025. While those within the Big 12 express continued confidence in poaching Pac-12 schools, Pac-12 officials remain confident their broadcasting package will rival that of the Big 12.

In a board meeting with Pac-12 presidents on June 30, commissioner George Kliavkoff and conference leadership presented officials with a general framework of a TV deal that is expected to include a linear presence for the conference’s marquee football and basketball games. The deal will likely be shorter than traditional conference TV contracts — seven years or fewer.

Through the lengthy negotiations, conference officials have preached patience to school administrators amid an ever-changing landscape of college athletics, where streamers are entering the marketplace and large linear networks, such as ESPN, have become more selective while also cutting personnel.

It’s unclear with whom the Pac-12 has been negotiating. ESPN, Fox, NBC and CBS have all recently struck partnerships with other conferences, including the SEC (ESPN), the Big Ten (Fox, NBC and CBS) and the Big 12 (ESPN and Fox). Streamers such as Amazon and Apple have delved into the sports world lately as well.

If the Pac-12 does choose a streaming service as its primary broadcasting partner, the league is expected to require that streamer to sub-license marquee games on a linear service.

 

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On 7/17/2023 at 3:46 PM, CustersDoctor said:

HOLLYWOOD MARRIAGES THAT DIDN'T LAST AS LONG AS THE PACX MEDIA NEGOTIATIONS:

BRITNEY SPEARS & JASON ALEXANDER 55hrs

NICOLAS CAGE & ERIKA KOIKE 4 DAYS

KRIS HUMPHRIES & KIM KARDASHIAN 72 DAYS

NICOLAS CAGE & LISA MAIRIE PRESLEY 107 DAYS

PAMELA ANDERSON & KID ROCK 122 DAYS

KENNY CHESNEY & RENEE ZELLWEGER 128 DAYS

CARMEN ELECTRA & DENNIS RODMAN 129 DAYS

SOPHIA BUSH & CHAD MICHAEL MURPHY 163 DAYS

JENNIFER LOPEZ & CHRIS JUDD 218 DAYS

JIM CAREY & LAUREN HOLLY 309 DAYS

ELIZABETH TAYLOR HAD FIVE MARRIAGES THAT DIDN'T LAST THIS LONG

MILEY CYRUS & LIAM HEMSWORTH 8 MONTHS

CHER & GREG ALLMAN 9 DAYS

Greatness

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18 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

Yeah, it gets a bit grey here because I'm not sure if the network valuation includes the inventory or not.   What I do know is that within the contract that included Fox and ESPN, the PACN received 2 football games from each school, or 24 games per season, which is kind of the minimum you need to start your own network.

USC/UCLA are gone now though and their 4 games are leaving next year.   Meaning they either need to get back to 12 or they need to add 2.4 games per year per school to feed the PACN beast. Creative scheduling be damned to napkin math, you really only have 6 home games a year per team.   So, at ten, you have 40% of your inventory off the market and unable to sell.

The B12, who didn't have a conference network, just sold 100% of its games for $32m/team/year.   If the Pac is on even financial footing, they should see a contract of around $20m/year/school for the 60% of inventory it did sell.   It will need to make up the difference with the PacN.   Either it:

  • Starts paying out $10-15m per year for that 40% of inventory after never really paying more than $3-4m prior or
  • The Pac takes back the inventory, sells the PACN infrastructure (which has value, there are studios and uplinks, and people with expertise - maybe $100m?), and sells 100% of their inventory like the B12 or ACC did, which would likely eclipse the B12 by $2-5m per team per year due to the asset sale.

We approach the sunken cost fallacy realm here, but if GK is dangling a carrot from a bad investment, Colorado will want to wait until the last minute to see what that is.   Their big fear will be leaving for a big loss (buyout, pay comcast debt) and then also missing out on a future asset sale.    It may be a dilapidated house in a bad neighborhood, but its still an asset.

The inventory from last year is 37 on Pac 12 net of 81 total home games.   44 to ESPN/FOX.   It's roughly 6.5 home games per school with 2 noncon and 4.5 in league play.

Assuming they keep it at roughly 3 games per school for the Pac 12 Network that leaves roughly 35 left.

The P12 Network has averaged only 2.5M since inception and recently broke past 3M.   That number may take a big hit when LA and it's carriage fees leave the P12 Network footprint.

For them to have a prayer of catching the Big 12 number with an intact P12 network the games outside the P12 network probably need to be at least 27 million per school and that assumes the P12 Network will be monetized better.   20 is way too low IMO since the P12 network inventory is the rump end.   For context the Big 12 got around 3M per school's individual deals with ESPN+ a couple years back off the record for the bottom 1-2 games per school.

I question who other than streaming services have the windows available to charge the dollars needed to pay that.   With FOX bowing out the partner with the most open OTA windows to sell ads against is gone.   CBS, ABC, NBC, and ESPN are mostly full.   The rest won't be able to drive viewers the way the PAC wants to sell ads at that high of a clip.  The "After Dark" spot has a high floor and low ceiling for viewership which also in turn limits ad revenue.

I disagree selling everything would eclipse the Big 12 on a long term basis.  The biggest issue is the only major OTA spots open are at noon eastern and the PAC doesn't play that early.   FOX isn't paying top dollar to slot FS1.  CBS isn't paying top dollar to feed CBS SN.   ESPN isn't paying top dollar for late games, ESPN2, or ESPN+.

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Hurtlocker

Hurtlocker 2213

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1 hour ago, Uncle Nate said:

So the Stanford President just resigned (the reason for the resignation is not related to realignment).  But he was one of the Presidents that was about to compose the new PAC 10 Executive Council. 
 

 

 

And for cheating on research too.  That's worth another chuckle.

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LTtxfan

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2 hours ago, Uncle Nate said:

So the Stanford President just resigned (the reason for the resignation is not related to realignment).  But he was one of the Presidents that was about to compose the new PAC 10 Executive Council. 
 

 

 

 

59 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

And for cheating on research too.  That's worth another chuckle.

 

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12469

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21 minutes ago, 'stache said:

So it’ll be presented Thursday and media day is Friday? What a fucking nightmare. If any coach doesn’t like it what’s to stop them from blasting it on media day? Wtf is going on here?

I bet $100 that they don't present a fucking thing today.

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LTbear

LTbear 4171

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17 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I bet $100 that they don't present a fucking thing today.

Calling it, this is written later today or early tomorrow:

Canzano: "The PAC directors met Thursday to discuss the ongoing media rights negotiations. "The update was very positive," said a source. "We're all on the same page. Things are looking very good. We expect this to be wrapped up fairly soon."

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BurntOrange&White

BurntOrange&White 39934

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2 minutes ago, CustersDoctor said:

Handing the schools an update, 24 hours before they have to go on camera is a bum ass move. It's done in politics all the time. It comes across more as an arm twisting ultimatum than as great package that was worth  the wait.

Screenshot_20230720_095927_Chrome.thumb.jpg.9f5db2a66256d12186d9c5a6ac5fa87c.jpg

Yup...

 

Those details will get out fast as shit too....this is going to be a chaotic media day for them especially if the terms/available details are not very good. 

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