Realignment talk not going away

[chase25 2048]

[TKthunder2 4984]

I’ll repeat myself from a few weeks back.

The current Big 12 is at virtually zero risk of getting poached now.

They should work with ESPN/FOX and change their GOR/bylaws to allow members to leave for the SEC/B1G for a reasonable exit fee.

This would allow Oregon/Washington to join and take the money now without worrying about missing out on a Big Ten invite.

Those teams join and the Big 12 is clearly number 3 (even over the ACC) and you now have obvious candidates that you can backfill them with (Utah, Stanford, Cal, Arizona St).

Hell, If even write in a special provision to let Cincy/West Virginia/UCF join the ACC to if they want. Can they word it to make the ACC take all three? They should.

[notre dame joe 186]

3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Washington, Oregon and Arizona to the big 12. 
boy they fucked up adding Cincy and houston. They could have gone Washington , Oregon, Colorado, Stanford, Arizona and Utah and had a damn good conference that with some work might be able to be better than the big 10. 

The Big12 realized that geographic absurdity made for a good media footprint.  They just need to get the four corner schools: San Diego, UW, Brown, and Miami.

[Uncle Nate 2097]

 

[tx ind 7005]

I really hope this quote is true

 

[BurntOrange&White 39927]

 

If you want a thread of guy that is handing out receipts then the following is a good read:
 

https://twitter.com/jlkurtz

[LTbear 4167]

7 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

 

clemson is a private school with 176k alumni

 

[BurntOrange&White 39927]

 

 

Virginia/Florida State to SEC would make most sense. This obviously doesn't include private schools like Clemson haha

Edited July 28, 2023 by BurntOrange&White

[Lou_Sassle 2872]

Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

 

 

Virginia/Florida State to SEC would make most sense. 

Indiana and Michigan state on that list is surprising

[LTbear 4167]

6 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

boy they fucked up adding Cincy and houston. 

Dumb take. Without taking those two (along with BYU and UCF) the Big XII wouldn't be in the position to get CU + any others today. 

[BurntOrange&White 39927]

Just now, LTbear said:

Dumb take. Without taking those two (along with BYU and UCF) the Big XII wouldn't be in the position to get CU + any others today. 

Agree with this. Those 4 were the best G5 programs that you could possibly take. Having them already in the boat gave PAC fewer options, see SDSU and SMU, to expand into good markets. Big 12 has played everything just about perfect from the moment us and OU announced we were leaving. 

[Sir Ulrich 5187]

7 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Washington, Oregon and Arizona to the big 12. 
boy they fucked up adding Cincy and houston. They could have gone Washington , Oregon, Colorado, Stanford, Arizona and Utah and had a damn good conference that with some work might be able to be better than the big 10. 

If a couple ACC teams bolt then they can pawn WVU/Cincy and UCF on the ACC and take those 5 or 6. 

[Wulaw Horn 19063]

The idea that y’all have, that adding UH and Cincinnati is what allowed the big 12 to get a good TV contract or somehow checkmated Pac 12 expansion is odd. 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

The idea that y’all have, that adding UH and Cincinnati is what allowed the big 12 to get a good TV contract or somehow checkmated Pac 12 expansion is odd. 

It's the ying to the yang that the Big XII would die without OUT.

[BurntOrange&White 39927]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

The idea that y’all have, that adding UH and Cincinnati is what allowed the big 12 to get a good TV contract or somehow checkmated Pac 12 expansion is odd. 

I mean it literally did....so I'm not sure what you're trying to argue.

 

Houston is much more attractive than SMU from an expansion standpoint

Cincinnati and the Ohio market is much more attractive than SDSU.

[Evil Bill Obrien 3244]

44 minutes ago, Sir Ulrich said:

If a couple ACC teams bolt then they can pawn WVU/Cincy and UCF on the ACC and take those 5 or 6. 

If Yormark is able to do this I’d lean more on the side of him being a wizard and less snake oil salesman…that would be quite the trade.

[Wulaw Horn 19063]

18 minutes ago, slorch said:

It's the ying to the yang that the Big XII would die without OUT.

I never thought the big 12 would die without us. I mean- it’s not going to compete on any kind of even playing field with the SEC/Big 10 but it’s got plenty of passionate football fans at state universities with large enrollments and decent football recent history. 

[LTbear 4167]

22 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

The idea that y’all have, that adding UH and Cincinnati is what allowed the big 12 to get a good TV contract or somehow checkmated Pac 12 expansion is odd. 

Adding the four is what allowed the Big XII to stick together, stabilize, and start to build momentum. I honestly have no idea how that's not abundantly obvious.

[BurntOrange&White 39927]

1 minute ago, LTbear said:

Adding the four is what allowed the Big XII to stick together, stabilize, and start to build momentum. I honestly have no idea how that's not abundantly obvious.

While the PAC 12 is literally unfolding because of its instability. 

[Wulaw Horn 19063]

15 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I mean it literally did....so I'm not sure what you're trying to argue.

 

Houston is much more attractive than SMU from an expansion standpoint

Cincinnati and the Ohio market is much more attractive than SDSU.

You are confusing causation with correlation dude. Those deals didn’t happen because tv’s are lining up to show fucking houston high on the tube. I have no idea why you are comparing UH’s desireability with SMU. My point was if they waited they could have traded UH and Cincy for 2 additional Pac 12 schools without things getting unwieldy. 
If they get Washington and Oregon whatever, that’s a huge pickup and no ragrets about anything I suppose, but they’d be better off with those schools, Utah and Stanford than UH/Cincy. 
byu was a great add. Central Florida was worth doing. They went home from the bar with UH and Cincy at 11:15 when they should have waited until 12:30 instead. 

5 minutes ago, LTbear said:

Adding the four is what allowed the Big XII to stick together, stabilize, and start to build momentum. I honestly have no idea how that's not abundantly obvious.

You didn’t need UH or Cincy to do that. They add pretty much nothing. 

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I never thought the big 12 would die without us. I mean- it’s not going to compete on any kind of even playing field with the SEC/Big 10 but it’s got plenty of passionate football fans at state universities with large enrollments and decent football recent history. 

Yeah, didn't mean it directly towards you, as neither did your comment point out individuals.  Just saying the mindset definitely existed on here just as the one you describe has.

[LTbear 4167]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

You are confusing causation with correlation dude. Those deals didn’t happen because tv’s are lining up to show fucking houston high on the tube. I have no idea why you are comparing UH’s desireability with SMU. My point was if they waited they could have traded UH and Cincy for 2 additional Pac 12 schools without things getting unwieldy. 
If they get Washington and Oregon whatever, that’s a huge pickup and no ragrets about anything I suppose, but they’d be better off with those schools, Utah and Stanford than UH/Cincy. 
byu was a great add. Central Florida was worth doing. They went home from the bar with UH and Cincy at 11:15 when they should have waited until 12:30 instead. 

You didn’t need UH or Cincy to do that. They add pretty much nothing. 

My man this is just a dumb take. Hell in their press conference CU mentioned exposure/ recruiting in Houston and Ohio multiple times. But back when the four were add, taking up the most oft-discussed expansion target on PAC message boards (Houston) along with 3 other new teams in new markets absolutely stabilized the Big XII to a degree beyond what simply adding BYU and UCF alone would have done. 

[Al_4_ISU 12444]

9 minutes ago, LTbear said:

Adding the four is what allowed the Big XII to stick together, stabilize, and start to build momentum. I honestly have no idea how that's not abundantly obvious.

Yeah.  This is extremely clear.  Yes, I'd rather have the Pac 12 schools (I do think BYU makes an excellent foil and has the profile of a big time school) over the AAC ones, but the Big 12 absolutely had to add those schools.  And realistically, all of them except for Houston have come off like power conference schools for a long time.  If Houston ever gets consistent fan support, they'll be right there too.

[locodos 5387]

6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

You didn’t need UH or Cincy to do that. They add pretty much nothing. 

chocolate, cinnamon, allspice, and cloves to chili

[billfromlaketravis 11444]

9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

You are confusing causation with correlation dude. Those deals didn’t happen because tv’s are lining up to show fucking houston high on the tube. I have no idea why you are comparing UH’s desireability with SMU. My point was if they waited they could have traded UH and Cincy for 2 additional Pac 12 schools without things getting unwieldy. 
If they get Washington and Oregon whatever, that’s a huge pickup and no ragrets about anything I suppose, but they’d be better off with those schools, Utah and Stanford than UH/Cincy. 
byu was a great add. Central Florida was worth doing. They went home from the bar with UH and Cincy at 11:15 when they should have waited until 12:30 instead. 

You didn’t need UH or Cincy to do that. They add pretty much nothing. 

Hindsight is 20/20. The Irate8 needed a guaranteed 10 members.  Coug High for their mythical tv sets and recruiting grounds. BYU for their “national following”.

Agreed Cincy contributes nothing. Pretty small city. UCF has a huge, aggy like enrollment and very little else. Taking these additional 2 is where they overreacted. 

Edited July 28, 2023 by billfromlaketravis

[BurntOrange&White 39927]

13 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Hindsight is 20/20. The Irate8 needed a guaranteed 10 members.  Coug High for their mythical tv sets and recruiting grounds. BYU for their “national following”.

Agreed Cincy contributes nothing. Pretty small city. UCF has a huge, aggy like enrollment and very little else. Taking these additional 2 is where they overreacted. 

Cincinnati brings in Ohio TV markets and good recruiting grounds to the big 12. UCF brings in Florida recruiting grounds and a growing school and alumni base with Florida tv markets. Some of y’all are being dense about how good those two recruiting grounds and markets are for big 12. 

Edited July 28, 2023 by BurntOrange&White

[BurntOrange&White 39927]

16 minutes ago, LTbear said:

My man this is just a dumb take. Hell in their press conference CU mentioned exposure/ recruiting in Houston and Ohio multiple times. But back when the four were add, taking up the most oft-discussed expansion target on PAC message boards (Houston) along with 3 other new teams in new markets absolutely stabilized the Big XII to a degree beyond what simply adding BYU and UCF alone would have done. 

Yup 100%

[Uncle Nate 2097]

5 hours ago, notre dame joe said:

The Big12 realized that geographic absurdity made for a good media footprint.  They just need to get the four corner schools: San Diego, UW, Brown, and Miami.

 

 

[thunderlounge 7809]

45 minutes ago, locodos said:

chocolate, cinnamon, allspice, and cloves to chili

We really, really need a barf reaction. 

[Al_4_ISU 12444]

52 minutes ago, locodos said:

chocolate, cinnamon, allspice, and cloves to chili

I will never understand Cincinnati chili.

[Evil Bill Obrien 3244]

52 minutes ago, locodos said:

chocolate, cinnamon, allspice, and cloves to chili

[jTower 227]

1 hour ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

If Yormark is able to do this I’d lean more on the side of him being a wizard and less snake oil salesman…that would be quite the trade.

Reducing exit fees and unequal revenue distributions might help, particularly if Miami and FSU left.

[Uncle Nate 2097]

5 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I will never understand Cincinnati chili.

Because it's not chili.  It's slop.

[Speedway 152]

 

Cincinnati chili is not chili. It is spaghetti.

 

https://www.skylinechili.com/menu/

Edited July 28, 2023 by Speedway

[Samson's Wig 3187]

On 7/27/2023 at 7:11 AM, BigHornedLurker said:

Honestly big12 football will be awesome to watch if the domino's fall 

I think we're naturally seeing how the acc will break up as well 

I still think we'll see either relegation or breakaway at some point , but I think the writing is on the wall for 3 super leagues 

This.   Fox and ESPN are driving the bus here, with conferences and individual schools mistakenly believing they have some kind of control.   That type of thinking is why Utah and ASU will be left in the wilderness (although I think ASU, despite being a sub-pedestrian program for its entire history will eventually end up in a major conference due to their market alone).  Leadership at both schools talked shit, which was foolish and will cost them, at least in the short term.  Utah brings nothing to anyone's table with a state hardly bigger than New Mexico now that BYU already has that small market sewn up.  Their fans have an aggy level of delusion regarding their status.  It's become evident that FOX/ESPN have come around to the notion of 3 super leagues, when they seemed content with two priorly.  Yormark deserves some kind of special award for pulling the Big12 from the absolute depths of despair to the position it's in now.

[BurntOrange&White 39927]

 

 

 

[bullet 1596]

3 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Agree with this. Those 4 were the best G5 programs that you could possibly take. Having them already in the boat gave PAC fewer options, see SDSU and SMU, to expand into good markets. Big 12 has played everything just about perfect from the moment us and OU announced we were leaving. 

Sent it discussed enough that I'm pretty sure the Pac 12 was at least talking to UofH.  They seemed to be their top G5 candidate over the past few years.

[bullet 1596]

2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

You are confusing causation with correlation dude. Those deals didn’t happen because tv’s are lining up to show fucking houston high on the tube. I have no idea why you are comparing UH’s desireability with SMU. My point was if they waited they could have traded UH and Cincy for 2 additional Pac 12 schools without things getting unwieldy. 
If they get Washington and Oregon whatever, that’s a huge pickup and no ragrets about anything I suppose, but they’d be better off with those schools, Utah and Stanford than UH/Cincy. 
byu was a great add. Central Florida was worth doing. They went home from the bar with UH and Cincy at 11:15 when they should have waited until 12:30 instead. 

You didn’t need UH or Cincy to do that. They add pretty much nothing. 

Big 12 needed Houston the same reason SDSU is the Pac's top choice, when they weren't even on the radar for the Big 12.  Its about getting attention in a major market where you recruit.  BYU was effectively a P5 school.  Cincy just got in the playoff and WVU needed them.  UCF was the one they could have done without.  They are another island.  But UC, UCF and UH were all about equal value.

[Evil Bill Obrien 3244]

8 minutes ago, bullet said:

Sent it discussed enough that I'm pretty sure the Pac 12 was at least talking to UofH.  They seemed to be their top G5 candidate over the past few years.

Would have been the most Coog High thing ever had they gotten a Pac 12 invite a few years ago, finally getting their long wanted return to P5... only for the conference to burn down immediately.

Edited July 28, 2023 by Evil Bill Obrien
words

[Wulaw Horn 19063]

2 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Cincinnati brings in Ohio TV markets and good recruiting grounds to the big 12. UCF brings in Florida recruiting grounds and a growing school and alumni base with Florida tv markets. Some of y’all are being dense about how good those two recruiting grounds and markets are for big 12. 

Cincy brings in Ohio about like UH brings in Texas.  The Cincy Tech game or cincy WVU will be about the 5th most watched game in the state of Ohio any particular week- same as Houston. You are confusing a location with bringing that location.

[Vertigo 20275]

3 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

 

 

Virginia/Florida State to SEC would make most sense. This obviously doesn't include private schools like Clemson haha

Aggy with only 177M in expenses seems... incorrect. It wouldn't surprise me if that revenue number were inflated also. 

[billfromlaketravis 11444]

2 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Cincinnati brings in Ohio TV markets and good recruiting grounds to the big 12. UCF brings in Florida recruiting grounds and a growing school and alumni base with Florida tv markets. Some of y’all are being dense about how good those two recruiting grounds and markets are for big 12. 

Ohio is an underrated recruiting state, but Cincy is at best an instate recruit's 4th choice behind Ohio State, Michigan, and Kentucky. So a Big 12 school would be 5th in line. 

Rinse and repeat for UCF, but probably worse. UCF is probably behind Georgia, Florida, FSU, Miami, and the entire SEC. So a Big 12 school might not make a Florida recruit's top 20. 

Edited July 28, 2023 by billfromlaketravis

[BurntOrange&White 39927]

Just now, billfromlaketravis said:

Ohio is an underrated recruiting state, but Cincy is at best an instate recruit's 4th choice behind Ohio State, Michigan, and Kentucky. 

Rinse and repeat for UCF, but probably worse. UCF is probably behind Georgia, Florida, FSU, Miami, and the entire SEC. 

You are still looking at it incorrectly. 

 

It's not about how that school recruits in the state it resides it's about opening up that state for your conference to recruit in.

[Vertigo 20275]

11 hours ago, USC Traveler said:

If FSU gets out, I’d expect it to be them and Miami.

BIG will get UVA and UNC also imo, so now to you have a Southeast wing.

I think the SEC is thinking about things a bit differently. I posted earlier this year that the SEC has essentially locked up the top talent in 4 of the top 6 talent centers in college football. Texas, Florida, Georgia, and Louisiana. Plus, the southeastern states as a whole are the only place you can find those jumbo athletes at scale along the offensive and defensive lines. Not only that, but there is a huge drop off in drafted players by state after Georgia, so on a percentage basis that number is closer to 50% of the top talent in the country being split up between 14 schools geographically, with many of those schools being able to go national and pull highly rated guys out of the west as well. Texas, OU, A&M, Bama, Georgia, and Tennessee all do this on the regular.

We see the impact that joining the SEC is having with Texas' recruiting success in Florida and other southeastern states the last couple of cycles. The SEC has a stranglehold on the hearts and minds of the talent in those areas. They are not going to allow FSU to join the B1G and get a foothold in one of their biggest talent centers. Miami I could see as plausible, and their impact would not be as high. But FSU is the biggest brand in the state for football in many people's minds, and that would create a big problem for the SEC. If I were Sankey, I would be positioning FSU to the SEC as a talent play more than a dollars play, and I would bring them in as full members even if it meant each school earning a couple million less than they otherwise might get annually. 

[BurntOrange&White 39927]

2 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

I think the SEC is thinking about things a bit differently. I posted earlier this year that the SEC has essentially locked up the top talent in 4 of the top 6 talent centers in college football. Texas, Florida, Georgia, and Louisiana. Plus, the southeastern states as a whole are the only place you can find those jumbo athletes at scale along the offensive and defensive lines. Not only that, but there is a huge drop off in drafted players by state after Georgia, so on a percentage basis that number is closer to 50% of the top talent in the country being split up between 14 schools geographically, with many of those schools being able to go national and pull highly rated guys out of the west as well. Texas, OU, A&M, Bama, Georgia, and Tennessee all do this on the regular.

We see the impact that joining the SEC is having with Texas' recruiting success in Florida and other southeastern states the last couple of cycles. The SEC has a stranglehold on the hearts and minds of the talent in those areas. They are not going to allow FSU to join the B1G and get a foothold in one of their biggest talent centers. Miami I could see as plausible, and their impact would not be as high. But FSU is the biggest brand in the state for football in many people's minds, and that would create a big problem for the SEC. If I were Sankey, I would be positioning FSU to the SEC as a talent play more than a dollars play, and I would bring them in as full members even if it meant each school earning a couple million less than they otherwise might get annually. 

Gerry has mentioned several times that some recruits we are getting or are after would never have considered us if not for the move to the SEC. The elite of the elite want to play in that conference because as Sankey pointed out at SEC media days, the SEC dominates in the draft and in the CFB playoff because of all the reasons you listed above.

[BurntOrange&White 39927]

 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, locodos said:

chocolate, cinnamon, allspice, and cloves to chili

aggy is the French Dressing in that analogy.

[Hurtlocker 2209]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Cincy brings in Ohio about like UH brings in Texas.  The Cincy Tech game or cincy WVU will be about the 5th most watched game in the state of Ohio any particular week- same as Houston. You are confusing a location with bringing that location.

You cannot bring a location, until you have a location.    Two things advertisers want most is reach and frequency.   How much you can provide within that reach will increase the value.  

Having a flag planted somewhere doesn't, to your point, guarantee success, but not having one provides zero.  An example of this is prior to the B12's addition of WVU, they didn't have a lot of exposure on the east coast outside any national game that was shown.   However, once they had WVU all games started to appear on regular TV in Pittsburgh (Morgantown is within the Pittsburgh DMA) and their syndicated games (prior contract, things are different now) were picked up by MASN the RSN in Baltimore/DC.  Over time they outgrew the rsn in DC and moved to bigger channels.   It was a beachhead.

The same holds true for these new locations.   The biggest issue the old Big 8 had wasn't brands, it was people.    They've always needed more people to grow their tv exposure.   That was the entire reason for the formation of the B12, gaining Texas' population, and gaining two big brands in the process. 

When the B12 was on its deathbed last summer, it needed growth opportunities.   It needed people they could engage.   From an old to new Big 12, that expansion changed the amount of households in their direct DMAs (e.g. the one they exactly reside, not big towns near) increased 68%, netting a new 5.4 million households to target.  Stripping out Houston, since they always had a presence in the state, they increased 47%.   Bringing Colorado back just netted them an additional 1.7m households, basically getting them more than twice as many total households to market as they had prior to last summer.

None of this means they're going to get everyone watching them now.   But they will get more opportunities now than they had in the past.   If they can market and grow that over time, their revenue ceiling will increase from what it was.

[USC Traveler 488]

11 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

That's the half billion dollar question:

ACC Buyout (I think 3 years of revenue): $100m

GoR for 13 more years (with a 4% yearly increase): Approximately $ 506,727,666

Yeah-  I was thinking $300m to settle it all out, but was hitting the wall last night and "multi hundred million dollar question" didn't sound good.

You're right, though- it's more like $500m if there's no settlement.

Interestingly, on FSU 247 today, there was a guy posting that FSU is meeting on 8-2 to authorize a bond issue that would help cover the costs.

Will be interesting to see what happens, but 8-2 isn't a Tuesday, so nothing big will happen, right ?

[BurntOrange&White 39927]

This is how you know it is about to completely unravel...the talk of "Tier 1 research universities" shows you all you need to know about how they're completely ignorant about the CFB landscape. 

 

 

 

Edited July 28, 2023 by BurntOrange&White