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Realignment talk not going away

The Tower

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Posted by Sandbagging Steve,

How many teams will be left when the dust settles in a few years? I think there's a way for all the teams to still have some involvement. I will explain that at the end of this list. Here's my list of the top 32 programs and a list if it goes to 48. There's some debate if it goes to 48, but not much debate if it stops at 32. I guess one could debate Arizona State, but that's about it. The top 32 at least come close to carrying their own weight. Everyone below that line is losing money for t

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Aggy should abstain so the vote is 13-0 and then we can then brand it on their dog.

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gatormarc

gatormarc 904

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1 minute ago, USC Traveler said:

Interestingly, on FSU 247 today, there was a guy posting that FSU is meeting on 8-2 to authorize a bond issue that would help cover the costs.

Will be interesting to see what happens, but 8-2 isn't a Tuesday, so nothing big will happen, right ?

Such a crazy thought to me.

Wouldn't they be looking at over a decade of debt service just to break even?

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gatormarc

gatormarc 904

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3 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

And i think them and WSU have been the vast majority of Canzano's sources for the past year.

Makes sense. Try to speak what you want into reality.

With the ACC, I guess we know shit is going down once we see a vote of confidence tweet from Wake Forest.

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gatormarc

gatormarc 904

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3 minutes ago, Deej said:

PAC 12 should just grab the University of Phoenix and be done with it. 

Major television market, huge student body, alumni spread out all over the country.

It's like UCF and Notre Dame had a bastard child together. Full hearts, can't lose.

Edited by gatormarc
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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12408

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1 minute ago, 'stache said:

I think they’re really saying that 16 works only if UO and UW are involved. They don’t want 31M each if it’s just the four corners.

Yup.  There's a spot for one 4 corner school (hopefully AZ), and UO and UW have spots if they want in.

Yormark definitely wants UConn, but I don't think anyone else is on board.

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'stache

'stache 21743

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I mean, if the Big 10 had told them no for good, what other option do they have? Are they willing to take $20M or less per season to rub elbows with Stanford and Utah? I think the BIG is closed until at least 2031, so might as well take the Big 12 money now and try again later for the BIG.

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DanTheHorn

DanTheHorn 4893

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1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Ohio is an underrated recruiting state, but Cincy is at best an instate recruit's 4th choice behind Ohio State, Michigan, and Kentucky. So a Big 12 school would be 5th in line. 

Rinse and repeat for UCF, but probably worse. UCF is probably behind Georgia, Florida, FSU, Miami, and the entire SEC. So a Big 12 school might not make a Florida recruit's top 20. 

@BurntOrange&White put it in general terms I will give you an example. Colorado was a real attractive program at one time and is now attractive again due to with Coach Prime. So now Coach Prime can go tell Ohio kids and Florida kids that their parents and extended family will be able to see them in their state at least twice during their career. Kids will hear about Colorado from time to time because they will play inside the state as they grow up. So who cares about Cincy and UCF and their ability to recruit since if Colorado gets as good as they use to be eyes will be on them as they come into the state just like they are an Miami or other such programs as they go pound an OOC opponent.

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USC Traveler

USC Traveler 488

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32 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

Interesting twist from Iowa State Media:

90bf4b6ee1e6e3c29400660fdbff4acb.png

Seems mirrored here:

e4e75b0f5038895faf9fd0bb21078c35.png

Then there is this:

40ae39af9a18793fb4c309a0dc27cbb9.png

This is what they're being fed by the B12 to up the pressure on UA, ASU and Utah.  They're trying to increase FOMO to start the stampede for the exits.

ESPN will still pay for 16, as it will give them enough teams for B12 after dark window.

And if they get UW and/or  UO in the process ?  Home run.  I still think they'll go to 18 if they get 4C and then UW and UO want to join.

 

ESPN/Fox/B12/ Endeavor/Yormark have been brilliant with their use of media sources to wage the disinformation war.

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BurntOrange&White

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4 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

@BurntOrange&White put it in general terms I will give you an example. Colorado was a real attractive program at one time and is now attractive again due to with Coach Prime. So now Coach Prime can go tell Ohio kids and Florida kids that their parents and extended family will be able to see them in their state at least twice during their career. Kids will hear about Colorado from time to time because they will play inside the state as they grow up. So who cares about Cincy and UCF and their ability to recruit since if Colorado gets as good as they use to be eyes will be on them as they come into the state just like they are an Miami or other such programs as the go pound an OOC opponent.

I made a post here quite a while back about how Colorados recruiting rankings went down 10-20 spots in the team rankings due to losing Texas/big 12 recruiting ground. 

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Sir Ulrich

Sir Ulrich 5187

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11 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I mean, if the Big 10 had told them no for good, what other option do they have? Are they willing to take $20M or less per season to rub elbows with Stanford and Utah? I think the BIG is closed until at least 2031, so might as well take the Big 12 money now and try again later for the BIG.

Probably a no for now with a huge buyout to leave the Big 12 for 10-15 years. Oregon just needs a commitment to cover that from Knight and I bet they'll move quickly. With the Big 10 and NBC now in bed that makes ND (who just joined the AAU last month) a real possibility in '31. Oregon would be the best match for them to pair with at that time. 

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Chewbacca

Chewbacca 7727

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17 hours ago, DanTheHorn said:

Pack 12 was dead after USC and UCLA left as was the BIG12 after Texas and OU left. The good news for the BIG 12 is that the ACC is still full of attractive members so it will be raided by the BIG 10 and SEC. Leaving the BIG 12 to choose who they want if they kill the PAC 12 for good. Yet I see the BIG 12 dissolving anyway and the most attractive remaining members of the PAC12, BIG 12 and ACC merging.

 

Once SC and UCLA announced they were leaving, the only chance the Pac had for survival was to do what the B12 did - go secure a media rights deal and poach teams from the other one.  B12 leadership played the game far better than the Pac did, so here we are.  I'd like to see the B12 grab Oregon, UW and either Utah or Arizona.

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Uncle Nate

Uncle Nate 2097

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Just now, Chewbacca said:

Once SC and UCLA announced they were leaving, the only chance the Pac had for survival was to do what the B12 did - go secure a media rights deal and poach teams from the other one.  B12 leadership played the game far better than the Pac did, so here we are.  I'd like to see the B12 grab Oregon, UW and either Utah or Arizona.

I don't think Utah brings much to the table.  They don't have a national following, and the Big 12 already has BYU.  Utah looks good right now because they've recently dominated the Pac in football.  But other than that, what do they bring?

Arizona hasn't been good in football for an eternity, but they are the flagship university of a state that the Big 12 is not in currently.  And they are a basketball power.  

I say if it can be done, and granted it's a huge ass if, the Big 12 should get Oregon, Udub, and Arizona and call it done.  Then at the end of the day they will have brought in 4 flagship universities in states they weren't in before.  Two are current football powers, one has shown a remarkable commitment to its football program over the past year, and one who brings a basketball pedigree unrivaled by the rest in the Pac 12 not named UCLA.

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DanTheHorn

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5 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I made a post here quite a while back about how Colorados recruiting rankings went down 10-20 spots in the team rankings due to losing Texas/big 12 recruiting ground. 

Yea I made the post in the context of responding to someone saying Cincy and UCF were not worth it. Those of us that witnessed Colorado being competitive in the BIG12 knew it was their ability to recruit Texas. Didn't they also do prop 48 like Nebraska before the BIG12?

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Chewbacca

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2 minutes ago, Uncle Nate said:

I don't think Utah brings much to the table.  They don't have a national following, and the Big 12 already has BYU.  Utah looks good right now because they've recently dominated the Pac in football.  But other than that, what do they bring?

Arizona hasn't been good in football for an eternity, but they are the flagship university of a state that the Big 12 is not in currently.  And they are a basketball power.  

I say if it can be done, and granted it's a huge ass if, the Big 12 should get Oregon, Udub, and Arizona and call it done.  Then at the end of the day they will have brought in 4 flagship universities in states they weren't in before.  Two are current football powers, one has shown a remarkable commitment to its football program over the past year, and one who brings a basketball pedigree unrivaled by the rest in the Pac 12 not named UCLA.

I would only want Utah to put them in the same conference as BYU.  Arizona makes more sense because of hoops, no argument there.

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Chewbacca

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10 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I made a post here quite a while back about how Colorados recruiting rankings went down 10-20 spots in the team rankings due to losing Texas/big 12 recruiting ground. 

There's more to that than just conference change, though.  CU de-emphasized football for the last 20 years and it shows.  Now the new leadership has put a priority on being good again, and that also shows.  

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Chewbacca

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3 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

Yea I made the post in the context of responding to someone saying Cincy and UCF were not worth it. Those of us that witnessed Colorado being competitive in the BIG12 knew it was their ability to recruit Texas. Didn't they also do prop 48 like Nebraska before the BIG12?

I don't think CU ever allowed prop 48 kids, but I'm not 100% on that.

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Uncle Nate

Uncle Nate 2097

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3 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

Yea I made the post in the context of responding to someone saying Cincy and UCF were not worth it. Those of us that witnessed Colorado being competitive in the BIG12 knew it was their ability to recruit Texas. Didn't they also do prop 48 like Nebraska before the BIG12?

I think Colorado, Nebraska, and even Missouri to some extent are all examples of what happens to your programs when you no longer are playing multiple Texas teams every year, and having at least one game in Texas.  It's not just physically not having a game in the state, but you are not on the nightly local newscasts in Texas anymore because you aren't playing the Texas college teams.

Nebraska and Colorado got absolutely decimated on the talent front once they left the Big 12.  Missouri has faired a little better, but not like before when they had a roster full of Texans.

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 14953

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Conference realignment seems chaotic and unpredictable. However, I believe the entire plan has been etched out by Fox and ESPN and been slowly rolled out to optimize the financials results and force certain schools to accept their fate. 

It always comes back to the fact that each school has a certain dollar value to the networks, and those schools will join the conference that gives them the most money. As the top earners have made their moves, with the networks’ blessings, then the next set of value schools are next up.

However none of them moved yet. So the networks went ahead and reinitiated instability by allowing the Colorado B12 move. They don’t want a failed Pac 10, so they are helping to now destabilize the ACC. 

I don’t know what the ultimate alignment looks like, but I’m pretty confident espn and fox already know where everyone lands and who is getting shafted. And who gets shafted are those with the least dollar value. 

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Lonestar88

Lonestar88 4585

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If I’m Oregon, I’m making the move to the Big 12. The Big 10 is clearly waiting for the ACC to destabilize, those are the targets they really want. (I’m including ND in this)
 

And USC will do everything in their power to stop Oregon from getting in. When you see reports about USC not wanting other west coast teams in because of recruiting challenges, they are specifically talking about Oregon, that’s by far their biggest west coast threat.

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