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Realignment talk not going away


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5 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

UConn is being floated to keep pressure on AZ.

I think Yormark would do it if he “has” to.  But I don’t think they have much support from the Big 12 as a whole.

At the end of the day, the networks are going to make the call.

Why would a conference [tv network] take UoAZ without even discussing ASU?

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7 minutes ago, notre dame joe said:

Why would a conference [tv network] take UoAZ without even discussing ASU?

Not sure which conference you’re referencing.

If it’s the Big Ten, I’m pretty sure ASU now with AAU membership and hockey and most importantly the PHX market is their top candidate over Zona.

If it’s the Big 12, Arizona has been more open to joining the league and their basketball fits well with the remaining members. As the Big 12 doesn’t have a TV network, markets don’t matter nearly as much. ASU’s football ratings have been better recently than Zona but neither were really doing all that great. They 100% take Zona if they are willing to come, overplaying your hand trying to trade up and get ASU could easily backfire.

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1 hour ago, Crockett said:

I'd prefer a California team. B12 wants to be the premier hoops league. I'd go Stanford or alternatively SDSU. Cal can get bent. 

Stanford is really good in lots of sports. Baseball, womenz Basketball, and are UT'S  biggest rival in swimming. It's to dang bad that they deliver so few eyeballs. If they did they make a great competitor. SDSU delivers better ratings than Stanford. And F' CAL.

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SEC will evntually take Virginia, UNC, Clemson, and X (Miami, NC State, VA Tech, or GA Tech...whomever wins the cage match).

B1G teaks Nike, Washington, Domers, and likely Standford.... but maybe tries the UNC, Virginia, GA Tech route depending.

Colorado, UTah, Arizona, and Arizona St. are all going to the Big12.  They'll likely also get the left overs from ACC. Maybe Pitt, Miami, NC state, and VA tech.

They'll be the 2 major conferences of 20, The major lite conference of Big12 at 20, Major-lite reduced calorie conference of Mountain West and the leftover ACC conference that pulls some of the better parts of the American to fill the spots of the pilfered programs.

The American reverts back to its mean even further to being essentially what CUSA was some 20 years ago.

It's all that simple.

Conf. rankings for football FBS:

1a) B1G

1b) SEC

-gap-

2) Big12

- significant gap- 

3 (tie) MW

3 (tie) ACC

- big gap - 

4) American

gap?

5.) SunBelt

gap

6.) MAC

7.) Conference USA

 

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I would personally pass on Clemson. They're one head coach away from being irrelevant in football, which is the only area they carry their weight. They're contenders now, but they could easily turn into a boat anchor. 

From the ACC I go in order:

ND

UNC

Virginia

FSU

hard pass on the rest

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This shit gives me headaches. SEC should give it the college try with Notre Dame. They’re the last uncommitted blue blood.

Gun to my head, UNC and FSU would be the only options that could bring any value. As others have stated upthread, the Virginia market is insanely fragmented VT and UVA wouldn’t bring shit. 

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15 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

This shit gives me headaches. SEC should give it the college try with Notre Dame. They’re the last uncommitted blue blood.

Gun to my head, UNC and FSU would be the only options that could bring any value. As others have stated upthread, the Virginia market is insanely fragmented VT and UVA wouldn’t bring shit. 

UVA is 14 in revenue, ahead of FSU who is 15. VT is 38th. 
 

Id bet behind the scenes both SEC and BIG are going to work to get ND. 

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7 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

UVA is 14 in revenue, ahead of FSU who is 15. VT is 38th. 
 

Id bet behind the scenes both SEC and BIG are going to work to get ND. 

My understanding is that UVA is an anomaly this year due to a single large $50M donation.

They are usually in the 30-40 range.

https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances/234076

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7 minutes ago, gatormarc said:

My understanding is that UVA is an anomaly this year due to a single large $50M donation.

They are usually in the 30-40 range.

https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances/234076

Yeah that happens from time to time, Oklahoma State jumped huge once, Oregon did it a year ago with like a $100m donation, and A&M did it a few years prior.

 

1 minute ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Clemson is a fit culturally. But damn South Carolina is a little state. Charleston is the largest city with 150k residents. The same size as Denton and smaller than Killeen. 
 

Why double down?

 

agree

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FSU and six other members of the ACC want out. At least 11 of the 15 members would find a home making more money in a better situation.

UNC really as interested in leaving as they're leading on to the other members?

Why can't the conference dissolve? 

1. Notre Dame (B1G/SEC)

2. FSU (B1G/SEC)

3. North Carolina (B1G/SEC)

4. UVA (B1G/SEC)

5. Miami (B1G/Big 12)

6. Clemson (B1G/SEC/Big 12)

7. Virginia Tech (Big 12/SEC)

8. NC State (Big 12/SEC)

9. Georgia Tech (Big 12/B1G)

10. Louisville (Big 12)

11. Pitt (Big 12)

On the fence:

12. Duke (who knows)

13. Syracuse (Big 12)

Leftovers: Wake Forest, Boston College

 

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Clemson is just over a 100 mile drive from Atlanta.  They've got a big presence in that market.  I think the SEC could add them and think of them as being as much Georgia's 2nd in-state school as South Carolina's 2nd in-state school.  Their floor historically is about 7-9 wins.  Their ceiling is competing for titles and their donors have shown they are willing to do it.  There's value in that.  

The program that probably best parallels Clemson is Auburn, except Clemson seems to have better leadership at the moment.    

 

 

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On 7/28/2023 at 4:43 PM, Dbeasy said:

I wonder if the Big 10 is concerned about bringing in Oregon because they have a multibillionaire who can single-handedly fund all the NIL Oregon needs, even though so far he hasn’t. Everyone wants teams that can produce revenue, but letting that billionaire into your club could be a bit risky.   

imagine buzzbee with 3 extra Zeroes on his net worth number and you've got more than just tanks parked in your neighborhood

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More noise is starting concerning FSU. I am just using this tweet and the one earlier in the thread as examples, not as definitive proof.

Their BOR meeting is this Wednesday, August 2nd.

The rumor is that they may vote to withdrawl from the ACC before the August 15th deadline for playing somewhere else in 2024. The destination is speculated to be the B1G.

FSU's logic is that there really is no risk when they are already behind 30 to 40 MM per year in media revenue. It is said that they would pay some sort of buyout, and they do not care how much. 300 MM, 500 MM, 600 MM... it doesn't matter to them what the buyout is when considering they are slated to be behind so much in media revenue until 2036. Plus, the B1G, SEC , and Big 12 will all get chances to renegotiate their contracts before 2036.

Who knows if it shakes out like this, but we will find out these next couple of weeks.

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35 minutes ago, Jabberwocky said:

More noise is starting concerning FSU. I am just using this tweet and the one earlier in the thread as examples, not as definitive proof.

Their BOR meeting is this Wednesday, August 2nd.

The rumor is that they may vote to withdrawl from the ACC before the August 15th deadline for playing somewhere else in 2024. The destination is speculated to be the B1G.

FSU's logic is that there really is no risk when they are already behind 30 to 40 MM per year in media revenue. It is said that they would pay some sort of buyout, and they do not care how much. 300 MM, 500 MM, 600 MM... it doesn't matter to them what the buyout is when considering they are slated to be behind so much in media revenue until 2036. Plus, the B1G, SEC , and Big 12 will all get chances to renegotiate their contracts before 2036.

Who knows if it shakes out like this, but we will find out these next couple of weeks.

It probably does and should matter.  If the revenue gap is $30MM, over 12 years that's $360MM; if it's $40MM over 12 years that is $480MM.  Both are < $500MM...and even when that number gets negotiated down, are they willing to piss away their new financial windfall in the SEC/B1G to largely pay for the buyout?  Where is the win there - just exposure?  It looks dire today but FSU should also be patient.  

A year or two in the 12 team playoff will help them see how that's going to shake out.  It may be worth it to only really have to compete with Clemson and Miami for the ACC autobid vs. running the gauntlet of the SEC/B1G.  Plus I bet most years the ACC places 2 in which should mean 90% of the time FSU is in the playoff if they're playing to their standard.  Half the battle is just going to be getting to the Big Dance for both exposure and the big bucks.  I bet the playoff will be worth as much as the ACC's season TV rights are over again.  If an ACC team makes the quarterfinals or championship they're going to pull down a lot of cash.

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2 hours ago, TXs said:

I would personally pass on Clemson. They're one head coach away from being irrelevant in football, which is the only area they carry their weight. They're contenders now, but they could easily turn into a boat anchor. 

I’m going to disagree with the room on Clemson. ND is not a real option, so FSU, Clemson, UNC, and UVA would be the best possible scenario for the SEC.

Clemson has a top 15 college stadium by capacity, and top 15 program ranked by wins, the most ACC football titles, 3 national titles, great all around athletic program that if they join with FSU would have all their historical rivals in the SEC save GT/NCSU.

I get that SC is a smaller market, but Clemson is a power team worthy of being considered in the top half of a 20 team SEC. You compare Clemson to aggy and Auburn, not Texas and Bama.

Do you take them alone, NO and I get that but if you can get them in a combination with FSU it adds a ton of firepower and offsets whoever else is added to go with them (could literally be almost any other two programs, like NCSU/VT or even really weak ones like Kansas/Duke). When you have FSU on board, Clemson is that sweetener that basically allows the SEC a free pass to add nearly any schools it wants because FSU/Clemson buys up that good will both internally and externally.

If the SEC misses out on FSU, but lands UNC, you still need Clemson to make the moves balance out. As great as adding UNC/UVA would be, without a fb power like Clemson in the mix it will give the appearance of watering down the SEC and the message will be internally “Do we want to give up playing UGA/OU every other year in order to add UNC/UVA/NCSU/VT to our schedule?” Clemson is the glue that holds expansion without FSU together.

The only scenario where Clemson is left out imo is if UNC/UVA insist on bringing along Duke and FSU is already on board. Then it’s the numbers pushing Clemson out the door. UNC/UVA might have enough leverage to make that move so it’s not unthinkable.

Circling back, ND is not joining the SEC as a full member (maybe a scheduling agreement if they leave the ACC and the B1G tries to pressure them for full membership, then 4-5 games with the SEC while they return to the old Big East for other sports might make sense) so discussing them as an option is pointless.

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12 minutes ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

A year or two in the 12 team playoff will help them see how that's going to shake out.  It may be worth it to only really have to compete with Clemson and Miami for the ACC autobid vs. running the gauntlet of the SEC/B1G.  Plus I bet most years the ACC places 2 in which should mean 90% of the time FSU is in the playoff if they're playing to their standard.

The conference champ autobid is likely going away when they renegotiate the CFP after 2025 season. The SEC/B1G agreed to that because it required unanimous approval to expand the playoff from 4 to 12. That approval will no long be required for 2026 and you’ll likely see it moved to a straight up at large selection (maybe with a single carve out for a G5 team in the top 16 or something like they had in the old BCS).

Second, the ACC (minus the COVID season where they had ND) hasn’t had 2 teams ranked in the top 12 since 2017 (Clemson and #10 10-2 Miami). I’ll send you $1000 right now against you 90% if you’re willingly to stand by those odds.

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3 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

The conference champ autobid is likely going away when they renegotiate the CFP after 2025 season. The SEC/B1G agreed to that because it required unanimous approval to expand the playoff from 4 to 12. That approval will no long be required for 2026 and you’ll likely see it moved to a straight up at large selection (maybe with a single carve out for a G5 team in the top 16 or something like they had in the old BCS).

Second, the ACC (minus the COVID season where they had ND) hasn’t had 2 teams ranked in the top 12 since 2017 (Clemson and #10 10-2 Miami). I’ll send you $1000 right now against you 90% if you’re willingly to stand by those odds.

Yep you're right on that!  No thanks on that bet.

The point about access stands.  If FSU plays to their standard, they should be fine to access the playoff in a weak ACC vs. the SEC/B1G.  I disagree that the automatic entry for the top ranked conference champions will be stripped away - too many senators will get calls from angry alumni and start holding hearings plus it opens the antitrust door.

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20 team conference are just a stupid idea. What are you going to have three divisions or just not play all teams in your division ever year with just two or pods where you play some schools once every ten years?  I know it’s possibly heading that way but as a fan it sucks.   I hope they figure out how to keep the SEC, Big 10 and Big 12 at 16 at the most. 

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6 minutes ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

Yep you're right on that!  No thanks on that bet.

The point about access stands.  If FSU plays to their standard, they should be fine to access the playoff in a weak ACC vs. the SEC/B1G.  I disagree that the automatic entry for the top ranked conference champions will be stripped away - too many senators will get calls from angry alumni and start holding hearings plus it opens the antitrust door.

How many spots do you think the B1G and SEC each get, and how mu h more money do you think that brings each conference? Compared to just 1 spot that the ACC will get.

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11 minutes ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

I disagree that the automatic entry for the top ranked conference champions will be stripped away - too many senators will get calls from angry alumni and start holding hearings plus it opens the antitrust door.

Crazy thing about that. If you add Arizona/Oregon/Washington to the Big 12, you have 4 conferences covering all but 6 states in the FBS (5 of which play in the MWC, #6 is UConn).

Also with 12 teams, an undefeated will always make the cut (for the antitrust reason you mentioned above) and 1 loss teams may even have a shot. I don’t think guaranteeing a random 2 loss champ from a weak PAC, AAC, MAC etc automatically making it in the door is going to fly when the SEC/B1G are as loaded as they are going forward. 2 loss Tulane bumping a 3 loss LSU or Penn State out of the playoffs should not happen.

Having 12 spots gives anyone in the FBS a realistic path for undefeated teams like Boise, Hawaii, Tulane, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, and TCU/Utah/UCF teams of old a true shot which is a major improvement. The honest lack of access was the problem. Automatic bids doesn’t take that access away. If they get called to Capitol Hill, they have plenty of old CSPAN footage of the Senators/Congressman asking for access which they can say “we did exactly as you asked”.

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10 hours ago, gatormarc said:

But I was assured by B1G fans that they would never have expanded if they hadn't been "forced to" by the SEC.

Pathetic pussies.  Why would they be apologetic about it ?

The answer should have been "Yeah- Delaney was a baller who saw where everything was going and wanted a coast to coast conference."

 

In truth, when the BIG added RU and MD, I thought going coast to coast was the eventual plan.  Just wasn't sure on the timeframe and whether Warren had the stones to do it.  Glad it became reality.  Can't wait to play in the BIG- it's going to be a blast, with some epic games.

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26 minutes ago, Jabberwocky said:

How many spots do you think the B1G and SEC each get, and how mu h more money do you think that brings each conference? Compared to just 1 spot that the ACC will get.

Last year, SEC and B1G would have had 3 spots each (50% of the field) and that’s before adding their blueblood additions, may add USC’s spot to the Big Ten’s total giving them 7 bids.

The ACC only would have had 1 bid. FSU was #13.

You assume the PAC would have still had 1 (they had a strong year even if you remove USC) and the Big 12 could still pencil in for 2 spots. Tulane wins the autobid lottery.

 

2021- looks similar 3 bids for SEC/B1G again. 2 for the Big 12. Cincy representing the American. Utah the PAC, Pitt the ACC and ND.

skipping 2020 due to COVID 

2019 - looks similar 3 bids for SEC/B1G again. 2 for the Big 12. Utah the PAC, Clemson the ACC and #17 Memphis 12-1 stops the SEC from getting bid #4 with #12 Auburn or #13 Alabama. (Good highlight on why autobid won’t stay).

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3 hours ago, Sandbagging Steve said:

FSU and six other members of the ACC want out. At least 11 of the 15 members would find a home making more money in a better situation.

UNC really as interested in leaving as they're leading on to the other members?

Why can't the conference dissolve? 

1. Notre Dame (B1G/SEC)

2. FSU (B1G/SEC)

3. North Carolina (B1G/SEC)

4. UVA (B1G/SEC)

5. Miami (B1G/Big 12)

6. Clemson (B1G/SEC/Big 12)

7. Virginia Tech (Big 12/SEC)

8. NC State (Big 12/SEC)

9. Georgia Tech (Big 12/B1G)

10. Louisville (Big 12)

11. Pitt (Big 12)

On the fence:

12. Duke (who knows)

13. Syracuse (Big 12)

Leftovers: Wake Forest, Boston College

 

Agree on this- there are a lot of scenarios where most of the schools end up in a better position.

Good to see you posting SS.  Hope you're enjoying your walkabout.

We're all just killing time in this thread waiting for you to post some epic national parks pics.

 

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7 minutes ago, Deej said:

How many, if told it was the case, would blame it on Texas?

Not sure that that number has changed. 

WaPo article this morning:

Quote

Yet college football forced us down this path two years ago. When Texas and Oklahoma committed to join the SEC, realignment became an existential threat to all of the other conferences. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/07/31/college-football-greed-ambition/

So all of the realignment that's happened the last 40 or so years, all caused by Texas and Oklahoma going to the SEC.

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37 minutes ago, BurntOrange&amp;White said:

 

 

That is solid shit talking. I’ve never had a problem with OSU. They’ve always seemed irrelevant or plucky or loaded because Dennis Erikson is a cheating motherfucker who let his convicts run amok and pummel Notre Dame in a BCS game. Likeable overall to an outsider. 

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12 minutes ago, gatormarc said:

Not sure that that number has changed. 

WaPo article this morning:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/07/31/college-football-greed-ambition/

So all of the realignment that's happened the last 40 or so years, all caused by Texas and Oklahoma going to the SEC.

Too small.

All realignment, all wars, all suffering, etc., in THE HISTORY OF EARTH can solely be blamed on TEXAS!  (/Sarcasm!)   Lulz.

The Delusional Hatred is astonishingly real.   

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Eventually, one or more universities are going to say, "we could lose up to $100 million or more from these Grant of Rights documents. OR ... we can approach a Billy BadAss law firm and say, "Here you go boys.  Here's a $5 million flat fee. Go git 'em." And GORs are looked at through the lens of sovereign immunity, lack of consideration, the conferences themselves are in essence, non-entities since revenue is passed on to the schools, the GOR is not a bilateral contract and/or is an improper assignment.

If and when that happens, in terms of college football, that could do away with 'formal conferences' completely and the universities in essence form a Board of Directors negotiating separately with television, steaming and whatever the next iteration is providers.

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12 hours ago, Sandbagging Steve said:

FSU and six other members of the ACC want out. At least 11 of the 15 members would find a home making more money in a better situation.

UNC really as interested in leaving as they're leading on to the other members?

Why can't the conference dissolve? 

1. Notre Dame (B1G/SEC)

2. FSU (B1G/SEC)

3. North Carolina (B1G/SEC)

4. UVA (B1G/SEC)

5. Miami (B1G/Big 12)

6. Clemson (B1G/SEC/Big 12)

7. Virginia Tech (Big 12/SEC)

8. NC State (Big 12/SEC)

9. Georgia Tech (Big 12/B1G)

10. Louisville (Big 12)

11. Pitt (Big 12)

On the fence:

12. Duke (who knows)

13. Syracuse (Big 12)

Leftovers: Wake Forest, Boston College

 

I think you are overestimating the appetite of the other conferences and the willingness of the TV partners to expand that far. Why would ESPN be fine with the B12/BIG/SEC poaching all of these schools and then immediately doubling what they were contractually obligated to pay them over the next 10 years? If there are a maximum of 3 more spots available in the B12, a maximum of 2 in the SEC, and a maximum of 2 in the B1G, then that means some quality brands in both the ACC and the PAC are left out in the cold, and the ACC teams would have no real incentive to dissolve the conference.

At that point, the ACC should just merge with the PAC leftovers and keep their current media deal. It may be the best thing for all remaining parties and might actually reflect market rates.  

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12 minutes ago, Lidig8r said:

Eventually, one or more universities are going to say, "we could lose up to $100 million or more from these Grant of Rights documents. OR ... we can approach a Billy BadAss law firm and say, "Here you go boys.  Here's a $5 million flat fee. Go git 'em." And GORs are looked at through the lens of sovereign immunity, lack of consideration, the conferences themselves are in essence, non-entities since revenue is passed on to the schools, the GOR is not a bilateral contract and/or is an improper assignment.

If and when that happens, in terms of college football, that could do away with 'formal conferences' completely and the universities in essence form a Board of Directors negotiating separately with television, steaming and whatever the next iteration is providers.

This all makes sense from one side of the fence. But you have to remember that the Linear Carriers have a stake in fact they want their contract fulfilled. If your FSU/Clemson/Miami you might be able to break your GOR with the conference. But the linear carrier who is currently broadcasting FSU/Clemson/Miami content, at a bargain basement price, does NOT want to lose that deal. If FSU/Clemson/Miami end up in the SEC, B1G or even the BIG14, those schools would get paid more money, The current linear carriers wouldn't want to pay FSU/Clemson/Miami more just because they changed conferences.

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38 minutes ago, Lidig8r said:

GORs are looked at through the lens of sovereign immunity, lack of consideration, the conferences themselves are in essence, non-entities since revenue is passed on to the schools, the GOR is not a bilateral contract and/or is an improper assignment.

I don't know what any of that means, but I believe it. 

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