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Realignment talk not going away

The Tower

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Posted by Sandbagging Steve,

How many teams will be left when the dust settles in a few years? I think there's a way for all the teams to still have some involvement. I will explain that at the end of this list. Here's my list of the top 32 programs and a list if it goes to 48. There's some debate if it goes to 48, but not much debate if it stops at 32. I guess one could debate Arizona State, but that's about it. The top 32 at least come close to carrying their own weight. Everyone below that line is losing money for t

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The Hot Dog Buffet

The Hot Dog Buffet 1291

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31 minutes ago, CustersDoctor said:

20 MILL a year per school is actually on par with what the BIG12 is getting. HEAR ME OUT. The PACX only has 2/3rds of its inventory up for negotiation. 1/3 of their content (two games a week on average) is dedicated to the PACX network. So 2/3 of their content should be about the same as 2/3 of the BIG12's content. That's about 20mill a year per school. The PACX's issue isn't so much that their getting screwed on their media rights deal, its that the PACX networks payout is only 3mill a year per school even though they have 1/3 the content.

No, the Big 12 schools sell their T3 rights separate from their media deal. So it's actually apples to apples if the figure doesn't include revenue from the PAC 12 network.

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Aggy should abstain so the vote is 13-0 and then we can then brand it on their dog.

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TKthunder2

TKthunder2 4990

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12 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

No, the Big 12 schools sell their T3 rights separate from their media deal. So it's actually apples to apples if the figure doesn't include revenue from the PAC 12 network.

Big 12 only gets 1 home game a year for tier 3 rights. That’s roughly 1/6 of their inventory not 1/3.

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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11465

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1 hour ago, The Dog said:

 

Oregon’s probably fine with the money because Phil underwrites their athletic department, but they have to be concerned with not being on TV.

UW is probably concerned about the money and the exposure.

If Oregon and UW don’t jump, they must have a gentlemen’s agreement with the Big Ten to accept them before 2031. These kind of agreements usually don’t work out. Just ask aggy. 

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49180

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

UW is probably concerned about the money and the exposure.  If Oregon and UW don’t jump, they must have a gentlemen’s agreement with the Big Ten to accept them before 2031. These kind of agreements usually don’t work out. Just ask aggy. 

UW guy wonders if Huskies could wait for Big 10 offer that might include a reduced revenue share...

 

Edited by LTtxfan
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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11465

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The Big Ten is waiting out Notre Dame. The Domers probably want Stanford in a conference with them.

And Oregon and UW are waiting junior partners offers from the Big Ten. 
 

So Oregon and UW have some kind of assurance they’ll be the 3rd and 4th teams added if the Big Ten goes to 20?

I just don’t see the Domers going for it. What would distinguish them in a league with 19 other teams? 
 

Rinse and repeat for the SEC. Notre Dame doesn’t want to be an 18 team league either. 

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LTbear

LTbear 4168

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

https://247sports.com/college/arizona/article/pac-12-present-media-deal-on-tuesday-213459575/

 

@texifornia do you have this article? 

Numbers being presented tomorrow, expected $20mil with escalators of some sort, meeting last Thursday was very bad. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16576

Posted
Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

The Big Ten is waiting out Notre Dame. The Domers probably want Stanford in a conference with them.

And Oregon and UW are waiting junior partners offers from the Big Ten. 
 

So Oregon and UW have some kind of assurance they’ll be the 3rd and 4th teams added if the Big Ten goes to 20?

I just don’t see the Domers going for it. What would distinguish them in a league with 19 other teams? 
 

Rinse and repeat for the SEC. Notre Dame doesn’t want to be an 18 team league either. 

B1G adds Stanford, ND, Oregon, Washington

Pac 5 Pod: USC, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon, Washington

West-Midwest: Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois

Central-Midwest: Northwestern, Michigan, Michigan State, ND, Purdue

East-Midwest: White Trash Pod: Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland

9 conference games: 4 in your pod, 1 protected rival, 3 x 1 from each pod, 1 flex that is an extra protected rival for some (ex: ND gets both USC and Stanford protected), pool of rotating randos for the rest.

No midwestern school is playing more than 1 west coast road trip per year with the exception of ND who wants to, no west coast team is going to the midwest 3-4 times a year. ND gets paid, maintains rivalries, and is in a "have" league for the CFP.

No idea if they would go for it but it's interesting. Keeps some semblance of regional CFB with a pulse on the west coast, and the B1G gets a monopoly on it.

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LTbear

LTbear 4168

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Posted
8 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

B1G adds Stanford, ND, Oregon, Washington

Pac 5 Pod: USC, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon, Washington

West-Midwest: Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois

Central-Midwest: Northwestern, Michigan, Michigan State, ND, Purdue

East-Midwest: White Trash Pod: Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland

9 conference games: 4 in your pod, 1 protected rival, 3 x 1 from each pod, 1 flex that is an extra protected rival for some (ex: ND gets both USC and Stanford protected), pool of rotating randos for the rest.

No midwestern school is playing more than 1 west coast road trip per year with the exception of ND who wants to, no west coast team is going to the midwest 3-4 times a year. ND gets paid, maintains rivalries, and is in a "have" league for the CFP.

No idea if they would go for it but it's interesting. Keeps some semblance of regional CFB with a pulse on the west coast, and the B1G gets a monopoly on it.

Ah, pods. The internet fan fiction that will never die, even though the B1G already adopted a much more flexible (and sensible) scheduling model.

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Sandbagging Steve

Sandbagging Steve 982

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9 hours ago, Vertigo said:

I think you are overestimating the appetite of the other conferences and the willingness of the TV partners to expand that far. Why would ESPN be fine with the B12/BIG/SEC poaching all of these schools and then immediately doubling what they were contractually obligated to pay them over the next 10 years? If there are a maximum of 3 more spots available in the B12, a maximum of 2 in the SEC, and a maximum of 2 in the B1G, then that means some quality brands in both the ACC and the PAC are left out in the cold, and the ACC teams would have no real incentive to dissolve the conference.

At that point, the ACC should just merge with the PAC leftovers and keep their current media deal. It may be the best thing for all remaining parties and might actually reflect market rates.  

My post was a reaction to the FSU news. FSU may or may not bolt this cycle, but they've shown ESPN/SEC that they have leverage. 

I don't think the SEC wants to lose FSU to the B1G.

If FSU leaves, the ACC isn't going to make it five years.

I wish the number was 16, but all three of the Big 12, SEC and B1G will have no choice but to grow and keep up. Hopefully, they will also increase the number of conference games with additions beyond 16.

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camel at sea

camel at sea 589

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15 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

 

 

Arizona, Oregon, and Washington join the Big 12.  Stanford eventually leaves for the B1G when ND gives them the nod.  That leaves Utah where?

PAC X:  Utah, Cal, ASU, Oregon St, Washington St, SDSU, Boise, UNLV, Colorado St., SMU
 

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Francisco 2.0

Francisco 2.0 32389

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Posted

FS1 is now in more homes than ESPN.

https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/SB-Blogs/Newsletter-Media/2023/07/31.aspx

 

Quote

The cord-cutting trend appears to be speeding up this year, as every cable channel that carries lives sports has suffered significant subscriber drops since the beginning of 2023, according to Nielsen’s most recent estimates. Overall, the total multichannel audience, which includes cable, satellite and VMVPDs, has dropped by more than 3.1 million subscribers in the past eight months. In January, that figure was at 78.889 million homes; as of August, its distribution is at 75.783 million homes.

 

Quote

A couple of stats to highlight:

  • July marked the first month that FS1 posted a higher subscriber figure than ESPN. According to Nielsen, FS1 is in 71.375 million homes, and ESPN is in 71.321 million homes. In this most recent report, FS1 claimed more subscribers than Fox News, which is in 71.224 million homes.

 

 

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he Warner Bros. Discovery networks had the biggest declines. For example, truTV, which carries March Madness games every year, has lost 4.639 million subscribers since the beginning of 2023. Similarly, TNT is down 3.083 million subscribers since January, and TBS is down 3.067 million.

League-owned networks have not dropped as many subscribers this year. But distribution for NFL Network, MLB Network and NBA TV falls well short of bigger networks. Whereas FS1 and ESPN are in more than 71 million homes, NFL Network is in 51 million, MLB Network is in 41 million and NBATV is in 38 million homes. 

 

 

 

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John80

John80 157

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Posted

Florida State doesn't have any leverage unless someone is going to write a huge check and if they had a lot of big money donors they wouldn't be constantly complaining about money. They can spend the next decade stomping their feet and it won't change anything.

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Sbbruin

Sbbruin 21847

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1 hour ago, Deej said:

Do we have enough money in the wreath fund to buy the PAC 12 rights?

Word is they may announce the rights deal tomorrow and it will be highly underwhelming.  Upside tied to viewership which is so fractured I find it a hard sell.  Which could kick the gears in motion and end the PAC in short order.  

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Deej

Deej 76761

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1 minute ago, Sbbruin said:

Word is they may announce the rights deal tomorrow and it will be highly underwhelming.  Upside tied to viewership which is so fractured I find it a hard sell.  Which could kick the gears in motion and end the PAC in short order.  

So we may be able to buy them and start a Pacific Coast Surly League?

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Sandman

Sandman 3403

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2 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

The Big Ten is waiting out Notre Dame. The Domers probably want Stanford in a conference with them.

And Oregon and UW are waiting junior partners offers from the Big Ten. 
 

So Oregon and UW have some kind of assurance they’ll be the 3rd and 4th teams added if the Big Ten goes to 20?

I just don’t see the Domers going for it. What would distinguish them in a league with 19 other teams? 
 

Rinse and repeat for the SEC. Notre Dame doesn’t want to be an 18 team league either. 

Does ND have some sort of out that I've missed (Which is entirely possible)? I thought they were locked in the ACC for years?

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bullet

bullet 1596

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4 hours ago, CustersDoctor said:

20 MILL a year per school is actually on par with what the BIG12 is getting. HEAR ME OUT. The PACX only has 2/3rds of its inventory up for negotiation. 1/3 of their content (two games a week on average) is dedicated to the PACX network. So 2/3 of their content should be about the same as 2/3 of the BIG12's content. That's about 20mill a year per school. The PACX's issue isn't so much that their getting screwed on their media rights deal, its that the PACX networks payout is only 3mill a year per school even though they have 1/3 the content.

Is that you Canzano?

The last 1/3 is the least valuable.

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bullet 1596

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2 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

McMurphy is the lone drummer on the “Oregon and UW eventually will be admitted into the Big Ten as junior members” snare right? 

Wilner expects it, just not until 2031.  McMurphy says it might be soon, more likely a couple of years, but possibly not until 2031.

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Deej

Deej 76761

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10 minutes ago, bullet said:

Wilner expects it, just not until 2031.  McMurphy says it might be soon,

As their brand withers and dies on the vine. Seems like a smart idea to wait around for something you aren't sure is going to come. 

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Deej

Deej 76761

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42 minutes ago, Sandman said:

Does ND have some sort of out that I've missed (Which is entirely possible)? I thought they were locked in the ACC for years?

Notre Dame is the chick who thinks she's hotter than she really is, won't give it up to anyone, then realizes she's on the other side of 40.

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0xdeadbeef

0xdeadbeef 1649

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1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I have a gut feeling that the Pac 12 pulls a rabbit out of a hat tomorrow and keeps it together short term.

Big 12’s done it enough times

There are stupid TV execs all over the place, so anything is possible, but I'm just not expecting it this time.    What's being reported is that the bigger payouts are tied to how well the games perform from a viewership standpoint.  No one knows what the thresholds are for higher payouts, but if you're one of the remaining nine Pac-12 teams, that can't sound good.

This site ( https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/ )has the week-by-week TV ratings for games last year.  Pac-12 games with USC or UCLA were almost always the highest game of the week.  If you take out all the USC and UCLA games things drop off real quick. 

 

My guess is the TV deal is terrible and teams start looking for new homes with urgency.

Can someone more in-the-know fill me in on the Big-12 deal:  If they add more teams, do the networks payout more to keep the per-team share the same?  That's what it sounded like when people were discussing CU.  Or is the pie just cut into more slices?

 

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0xdeadbeef

0xdeadbeef 1649

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5 minutes ago, Deej said:

Notre Dame is the chick who thinks she's hotter than she really is, won't give it up to anyone, then realizes she's on the other side of 40.

Unfortunately,

Notre Dame is more like an average looking girl on TikTok, who thinks she is hotter than she really is, but who actually has millions of followers.

You have you ask yourself Why?

These are Notre Dame's games on national TV last year and how the ranked against all other games:

  • Week 13 - 3rd
  • Week 12 - 11th 
  • Week 11 - 9th
  • Week 10 - 4th
  • Week 9 - 7th
  • Week 8  - 
  • Week 7 - 8th
  • Week 6 - 8th
  • Week 5 - 
  • Week 4 - 4th
  • Week 3 - 7th
  • Week 2 - 6th 
  • Week 1 -1st 

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/

ND is one of the only teams, if not the only team, that can make a go of it as an Independent.

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BurntOrange&White

BurntOrange&White 39931

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Sandman said:

Does ND have some sort of out that I've missed (Which is entirely possible)? I thought they were locked in the ACC for years?

If I am remembering correctly ND is subject to the ACC/GOR buyout unless they decide to go football only in the SEC or Big 10. But that brings up the question of would the Big 10 or SEC take them as a football only member for now? I believe that answer is a resounding yes.

Edited by BurntOrange&White
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ouflak

ouflak 60

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

Can someone more in-the-know fill me in on the Big-12 deal:  If they add more teams, do the networks payout more to keep the per-team share the same?  That's what it sounded like when people were discussing CU.  Or is the pie just cut into more slices?

 

ESPN has in the contract that they will match for every P5 team that joins - up to four. Fox does not have that in the contract, but have already agreed otherwise to also match for every P5 that joins up to two. Anybody else outside of P5 means they have to slice up the pie.

I don't know if the Big XII can really attract 3 more PAC(9) teams without Fox matching. That is unless whatever media deal offers the PAC is facing are truly depressing. If the option comes up, I think the Big XII obviously has to bite the bullet on that one. You can stabilize the finances out later, or maybe even work some rearrangement on the current deal out like 'ok, you won't match the extra two? Fine, let us have our Tier 3 back'. Something like that I'd think would be workable for the short term.

Edited by ouflak
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statsman

statsman 5457

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Posted

I think you have to give weight to inertia, in these decisions. The PAC schools have alumni in PAC cities and regions (yes, USC and UCLA leaving had an impact on other schools alum bases in south California). To just realign and start scheduling games in parts of the nation they have no real interest in is a big deal. 
 
If Arizona and Utah really wanted to play football games against Kansas State and Cincinnati, there would be non-conference games scheduled. 
 
(In this light, doesn’t Texas’ recent scheduling of USC, ND, LSU, Bama, and Michigan look very telling?)

On the other hand- university presidents and ADs often have no real tie to the school and serve five year terms. I might be surprised by an outcome, but not shocked. 

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12460

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Posted
36 minutes ago, statsman said:

I think you have to give weight to inertia, in these decisions. The PAC schools have alumni in PAC cities and regions (yes, USC and UCLA leaving had an impact on other schools alum bases in south California). To just realign and start scheduling games in parts of the nation they have no real interest in is a big deal. 
 
If Arizona and Utah really wanted to play football games against Kansas State and Cincinnati, there would be non-conference games scheduled. 
 
(In this light, doesn’t Texas’ recent scheduling of USC, ND, LSU, Bama, and Michigan look very telling?)

On the other hand- university presidents and ADs often have no real tie to the school and serve five year terms. I might be surprised by an outcome, but not shocked. 

AZ has scheduled Big 12 schools quite a bit, I thought. 

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