Realignment talk not going away

[Uncle Nate 2097]

 

[BurntOrange&White 39612]

 

 

 

 

[gatormarc 904]

15 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

AZ has scheduled Big 12 schools quite a bit, I thought. 

Out of curiosity, had to look up their OOC trends.

2010 - Iowa
2011- OKState
2012 - OKState
2013 - No P5
2014 - No P5
2015 - No P5
2016 - BYU
2017 - No P5; Houston
2018 - BYU
2019 - TTech
2021 - BYU
2022 - Miss St
2023 - Miss St

--

2024 - KState
2025 - KState
2026 - BYU
2027 - BYU
2028 - Nebraska
2029 - VTech
2030 - VTech
2031 - Nebraska
2032 - Bama
2033 - Bama
2034 - TTech

Edited August 1, 2023 by gatormarc

[BurntOrange&White 39612]

58 minutes ago, statsman said:

I think you have to give weight to inertia, in these decisions. The PAC schools have alumni in PAC cities and regions (yes, USC and UCLA leaving had an impact on other schools alum bases in south California). To just realign and start scheduling games in parts of the nation they have no real interest in is a big deal. 
 
If Arizona and Utah really wanted to play football games against Kansas State and Cincinnati, there would be non-conference games scheduled. 
 
(In this light, doesn’t Texas’ recent scheduling of USC, ND, LSU, Bama, and Michigan look very telling?)

On the other hand- university presidents and ADs often have no real tie to the school and serve five year terms. I might be surprised by an outcome, but not shocked. 

I think when your conference is going to make a projected 10-20 million less than big 12 once post season payouts are formulated in that cost you can throw inertia and just about most everything out of the window. That isn't even including the 5.7 for the next two years that pac 12 schools are on the hook for due to the horrible Comcast debacle.  This year from what I recall seeing the pac 12 made 8 million fewer than Big 12 due to that payout....Big 12 got a raise in the media rights area where as Pac 12's projected deal is stagnant at best.

Edited August 1, 2023 by BurntOrange&White

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

8 minutes ago, gatormarc said:

Out of curiosity, had to look up their OOC trends.

2010 - Iowa
2011- OKState
2012 - OKState
2013 - No P5
2014 - No P5
2015 - No P5
2016 - BYU
2017 - No P5; Houston
2018 - BYU
2019 - TTech
2021 - BYU
2022 - Miss St
2023 - Miss St

--

2024 - KState
2025 - KState
2026 - BYU
2027 - BYU
2028 - Nebraska
2029 - VTech
2030 - VTech
2031 - Nebraska
2032 - Bama
2033 - Bama
2034 - TTech

That's pretty Big 12 heavy, IMO.

[gatormarc 904]

5 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

That's pretty Big 12 heavy, IMO.

Also judging by their sixth or maybe even seventh sense ability to schedule BYU and Houston prior to their inclusion, I'd go ahead and use this as a good sign that Nebraska is returning home and bringing Bama with them.

[The Hot Dog Buffet 1291]

11 hours ago, Jasper_Jester said:

 

Aren't the Big12 Tier 3 rights in the deal? Big 12 extends media deal with ESPN, FOX - Bring On The Cats

That article lists two figures. Total revenues of $41M-$43M per team that include Tier 3 and other revenue sources like the NCAA tournament and CFP, but the media deal is for $31.66M per team. The $31.66M is what the Pac deal is being compared to and it does not include Tier 3.

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

12 minutes ago, gatormarc said:

Also judging by their sixth or maybe even seventh sense ability to schedule BYU and Houston prior to their inclusion, I'd go ahead and use this as a good sign that Nebraska is returning home and bringing Bama with them.

Well, your argument was that the noncon was a reflection of who they want to play, and that slate is like 2/3rds schools that will be in the Big 12

[gatormarc 904]

3 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Well, your argument was that the noncon was a reflection of who they want to play, and that slate is like 2/3rds schools that will be in the Big 12

I had an argument?

[Paul Wesley 3277]

9 hours ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

These are Notre Dame's games on national TV last year and how the ranked against all other games:

• Week 13 - 3rd
• Week 12 - 11th 
• Week 11 - 9th
• Week 10 - 4th
• Week 9 - 7th
• Week 8  - 
• Week 7 - 8th
• Week 6 - 8th
• Week 5 - 
• Week 4 - 4th
• Week 3 - 7th
• Week 2 - 6th 
• Week 1 -1st 

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/

ND is one of the only teams, if not the only team, that can make a go of it as an Independent.

OK, but how would that compare to the weekly Notre Dame TV ranking from the 80’s and 90’s?   I’d bet they were in the top-2 or -3 games every week.  Not to mention: they used to finish the season in the top five as often as not, and that’s not happening anymore either.  
 

They’re still a powerful national brand, and they’re gonna get courted by all the super conferences, but considering where they came from, I think Deej is right - seems like they’re still overplaying their hand.  

[BurntOrange&White 39612]

Just now, Paul Wesley said:

OK, but how would that compare to the weekly Notre Dame TV ranking from the 80’s and 90’s?   I’d bet they were in the top-2 or -3 games every week.  Not to mention: they used to finish the season in the top five as often as not, and that’s not happening anymore either.  
 

They’re still a powerful national brand, and they’re gonna get courted by all the super conferences, but considering where they came from, I think Deej is right - seems like they’re still overplaying their hand.  

I don’t think that is a good metric. Notre Dames rankings with their current schedule vs say ND with a BIG or SEC conference schedule brings in more numbers. 

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

I had an argument?

It’s Surly. I assume every post has some level of combative energy.

[gatormarc 904]

1 minute ago, Al_4_ISU said:

It’s Surly. I assume every post has some level of combative energy.

Ha.

I was just legitimately curious when catching up this morning and felt the need to look it up.

I don't have a dog in this particular fight. 

[gatormarc 904]

https://www.si.com/college/2023/08/01/arizona-big-12-pac-12-conference-duel

Quote

It's doubtful that the regents would let the University of Arizona make a move without a plan in place for Arizona State. Surely, if Wildcats brass is set on leaving, they have their own proposal in mind, whether that means lobbying for the Sun Devils to come with them or reaching a financial consideration. In a similar situation, a divided California board of regents allowed UCLA to go to the Big Ten, but only for a significant price. The regents forced the Bruins to agree to pay Cal, their sister Pac-12 public school in the UC system, between $2-$10 million per year. (Big Ten TV revenue will likely be at least double on a per-school basis than the Big 12’s.)

 

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

Ha.

I was just legitimately curious when catching up this morning and felt the need to look it up.

I don't have a dog in this particular fight. 

I was actually surprised at how heavily slanted to the future Big 12 it was. I remembered those Tech and OK State games but didn’t realize they played BYU that much and had KSU in the very near future.

Makes me wonder what happens with that game when they join? Probably easier to leave it but not count it as a conference game

[gatormarc 904]

2 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I was actually surprised at how heavily slanted to the future Big 12 it was. I remembered those Tech and OK State games but didn’t realize they played BYU that much and had KSU in the very near future.

Makes me wonder what happens with that game when they join? Probably easier to leave it but not count it as a conference game

Using the SEC as a guide, KState and BYU appear to be 2 game series that haven't started yet, so those would probably be canceled outright.

TTech is weird since the second game of the series was supposed to be in 2020 and was moved way out. They'll probably just cancel the second half of that series for whatever the contract calls for

Theoretically, Arizona should be looking to clear space so that they can play Arizona State assuming ASU stays in the PacWhatever.

 

[CustersDoctor 584]

10 hours ago, bullet said:

Is that you Canzano?

The last 1/3 is the least valuable.

I've been called some ugly names on this forum, but Canzano! I may never recover.

[BurntOrange&White 39612]

20 min until that numbers presentation, correct?

[BurntOrange&White 39612]

 

[Uncle Nate 2097]

3 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

20 min until that numbers presentation, correct?

Here is an advanced preview:

 

 

[gatormarc 904]

4 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

20 min until that numbers presentation, correct?

Depending on Daylight Savings settings.

[BurntOrange&White 39612]

According to the video above and Thamel article itself that Arizona, Arizona St, and Utah are expected to lump their future together.

[gatormarc 904]

Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

According to the video above and Thamel article itself that Arizona, Arizona St, and Utah are expected to lump their future together.

 

[BachelorTrek 2934]

9 minutes ago, gatormarc said:

 

[Tex Long 4346]

Well... there it is. Fixing to see the Four Corners Pod of the XII. Gotta be an entertainment angle to Pod Coverage. 

[Crockett 481]

34 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

According to the video above and Thamel article itself that Arizona, Arizona St, and Utah are expected to lump their future together.

Utah, ASU, and AZ joining together is different than other messages out there.

According to this article, which quotes ESPN’s Ian Fitzsimmons on SiriusXM College Sports radio mentioning that he was told, “Utah isn’t exactly returning the phone calls,” with the Big 12 Conference. Fitzsimmons mentioned that he spoke about Utah to an official of the Big 12 Conference official who said, “They’re OK in hoops, but they sell out (their football stadium) in a top 35 media market.” He then asked about when it comes to TV dollars why aren’t they going after the Utes? He was reportedly told that Utah isn’t exactly returning the phone calls.

He continued by saying, “I was told that Utah doesn’t want to appear to be following their rival in BYU. We all know that college athletics can be damn petty but I mean, look, we’re talking about your future. Pick up the phone.”

Maybe this is changing as stark reality starts to hit Utah, and Thamel is now right, but I hope Utah is stupid enough to stay in the WAC10. 

[The Dog 43792]

 

[Tex Long 4346]

Even for LDS, money talks. Let's see what happens if Yormark can show them a wallet full of cash. The prospect of 20 versus 32 might effect an attitude shift.

[Evil Bill Obrien 3179]

4 minutes ago, Crockett said:

Utah, ASU, and AZ joining together is different than other messages out there.

According to this article, which quotes ESPN’s Ian Fitzsimmons on SiriusXM College Sports radio mentioning that he was told, “Utah isn’t exactly returning the phone calls,” with the Big 12 Conference. Fitzsimmons mentioned that he spoke about Utah to an official of the Big 12 Conference official who said, “They’re OK in hoops, but they sell out (their football stadium) in a top 35 media market.” He then asked about when it comes to TV dollars why aren’t they going after the Utes? He was reportedly told that Utah isn’t exactly returning the phone calls.

He continued by saying, “I was told that Utah doesn’t want to appear to be following their rival in BYU. We all know that college athletics can be damn petty but I mean, look, we’re talking about your future. Pick up the phone.”

Maybe this is changing as stark reality starts to hit Utah, and Thamel is now right, but I hope Utah is stupid enough to stay in the WAC10. 

Theres a few examples at the G5 level of hubris/ego getting the better of school administrations and it costing them (La Tech, WKU spurning the Sunbelt only to get marooned quite possibly permanently in CUSA when all their "peers" bailed for the American) but very few examples of it getting in the way when theres this much money at stake. Don't think Cal really counts because they just don't really seem to care, but Utah was beating their chest mightily upon their arrival to the P5 in the PAC...and they look like they are going to get left in the ditch there to slide right right back into the MWC from where the came...

[Uncle Nate 2097]

 

[BurntOrange&White 39612]

 

Bro, tipping culture is out of control!

[Dnaguy 11769]

50 minutes ago, Tex Long said:

Well... there it is. Fixing to see the Four Corners Pod of the XII. Gotta be an entertainment angle to Pod Coverage. 

I bet they go with a 1 perma-rival and then rotate everyone else. Anything else creates conflicts for recruiting (everyone is going to want to have games in Texas) IMO / competitive Balance issues. But they may do the 3 perma rivals like the SEC was talking about.

If only 1 rival:

Utah-BYU

Arizona-ASU

Colorado-Iowa St.

Kansas-Kstate

Tech - Okie St.

TCU - Baylor

Central Florida - Houston

Cincy - WVU

 

If 3 rival (my 1st attempt):

 

Arizona - ASU, Utah, Colorado

Arizona St. - Arizona, Utah, BYU

Baylor - TCU, BYU, Houston

BYU - Utah, Arizona St., Baylor

Cincy - WVU, Central Florida, Kansas

Central Florida - WVU, Cincy, Houston

Colorado - Arizona, Utah, Iowa St.

Houston - Central Florida, Tech, Baylor

Iowa St.- Colorado, KSU, WVU

Kansas - Kstate,, Iowa St, Cincy

Kansas St. - Kansas, Iowa St. Okie St.

Okie St. -TCU, TTech, K state

TCU - Baylor, Okie St., Tech

TTech - Houston, Okie St. , TCU

Utah - BYU, Arizona, Arizona St. 

West Virgina - Cincy, Central Florida, Iowa St.

Edited August 1, 2023 by Dnaguy

[Texas Wahoo 3383]

3 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

I bet they go with a 1 perma-rival and then rotate everyone else. Anything else creates conflicts for recruiting (everyone is going to want to have games in Texas) IMO / competitive Balance issues. But they may do the 3 perma rivals like the SEC was talking about.

If only 1 rival:

Utah-BYU

Arizona-ASU

Colorado-Iowa St.

Kansas-Kstate

Tech - Okie St.

TCU - Baylor

Central Florida - Houston

Cincy - WVU

 

If 3 rival (my 1st attempt):

 

Arizona - ASU, Utah, Colorado

Arizona St. - Arizona, Utah, BYU

Baylor - TCU, BYU, Houston

BYU - Utah, Arizona St., Baylor

Cincy - WVU, Central Florida, Kansas

Central Florida - WVU, Cincy, Houston

Colorado - Arizona, Utah, Iowa St.

Houston - Central Florida, Tech, Baylor

Iowa St.- Colorado, KSU, WVU

Kansas - Kstate,, Iowa St, Kansas

Kansas St. - Kansas, Iowa St. Okie St.

Okie St. -TCU, TTech, K state

TCU - Baylor, Okie St., Tech

TTech - Houston, Okie St. , TCU

Utah - BYU, Arizona, Arizona St. 

West Virgina - Cincy, Central Florida, Iowa St.

The Big Ten went with a system in which each team has from 0 to 3 permanent rivals, so it doesn’t need to be the same number for everyone. 

[ouflak 60]

1 hour ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

That article lists two figures. Total revenues of $41M-$43M per team that include Tier 3 and other revenue sources like the NCAA tournament and CFP, but the media deal is for $31.66M per team. The $31.66M is what the Pac deal is being compared to and it does not include Tier 3.

That article has been updated (perhaps in just the past hour):

Quote

Update: it’s now being reported that the tier 3 rights are included in this deal, which reduces the overall revenue by approximately $5 million per team per year.

So Tier 3 is already included in the main deal. Still not a bad overall payout, though more realistically around 35-36 million when post season is included.

Edited August 1, 2023 by ouflak

[Texas Wahoo 3383]

2 minutes ago, ouflak said:

That article has been updated (perhaps in just the last hour):

So Tier 3 is already included in the main deal. Still not a bad overall payout, though more realistically around 35-36 million when post season is included.

This makes sense. I’m pretty sure tier 3 would have been included in the last deal if not for the LHN and possibly Soonervision to a lesser extent. 

[BurntOrange&White 39612]

3 minutes ago, ouflak said:

That article has been updated (perhaps in just the last hour):

So Tier 3 is already included in the main deal. Still not a bad overall payout, though more realistically around 35-36 million when post season is included.

For PAC? That is horrible the post season estimations because for big 12 are 45-50 million

Edited August 1, 2023 by BurntOrange&White

[ouflak 60]

4 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

For PAC? That is horrible the post season estimations because for big 12 are 45-50 million

No. That article is explaining the Big XII deal that was just signed. I'm assuming those post-season payout expectations are based on recent years' payouts, but I don't know.

Edited August 1, 2023 by ouflak

[BurntOrange&White 39612]

1 minute ago, ouflak said:

No. That article is explaing the Big XII deal that was just signed.

[ouflak 60]

3 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Yeah, it could happen like this even with Tier 3 being wrapped up in the main deal. The update is likewise as optimistic. We'll see (or, they'll see. We'll ofcourse be making SEC coin).

[BurntOrange&White 39612]

2 minutes ago, ouflak said:

Yeah, it could happen like this even with Tier 3 being wrapped up in the main deal. The update is likewise as optimistic. We'll see (or, they'll see. We'll ofcourse be making SEC coin).

Either way if the base pay of pac is low 20s that is significant enough for schools to make the jump. They'd legit be making 10 million less on average than Big 12 even with payouts. Big 12 likely gets more post season payout moving forward as well so the number could climb to 15-20 million less depending on season/year.

[The Hot Dog Buffet 1291]

I don't think it's unrealistic to expect 2 playoff teams and 10 tournament teams most years. No idea how much money that equates or what assumptions the article made.

[LTtxfan 48962]

So how would Surly folks rank, from best to worst, the football schools in remaining PAC9 ?

It just seems like Stanford & Cal don't care about CFB enough, while Beavers & Wazzu should be in a league with Boise State & SDST.  So if you want good Power 5 football with fan support, there are only 5 teams remaining in PAC9

 

Edited August 1, 2023 by LTtxfan
messed up

[Park Gothic 4967]

22 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

So how would Surly folks rank, from best to worst, the football schools in remaining PAC9 ?

It just seems like Stanford & Cal don't care about CFB enough, while Beavers & Wazzu should be in a league with Boise State & SDST.  So if you want good Power 5 football with fan support, there are only 5 teams remaining in PAC9

 

If the remaining Big 12 schools gave a shit about academics, then Stanford would still be a good get just for access to its research facilities. That's what has made ASU so reticent to leave the PAC - they've made a ton of money on research through their relationship to Stanford and don't see the same thing happening with any of the Big 12 schools. Not sure that it makes much of a difference, but something to keep in mind. 

[gmr548 16491]

So how would Surly folks rank, from best to worst, the football schools in remaining PAC9 ?
It just seems like Stanford & Cal don't care about CFB enough, while Beavers & Wazzu should be in a league with Boise State & SDST.  So if you want good Power 5 football with fan support, there are only 5 teams remaining in PAC9
 

Strictly football? Long term value based:

1.) Oregon
2.) Washington
3.) Utah
4-9.) Whatever

You could add SDSU, Boise, and whoever else and have a competent football league that would be interesting to die hard CFB fans, but would definitely lack the mass market appeal to get a TV deal even at the B12’s level.

[Dnaguy 11769]

5 minutes ago, Park Gothic said:

If the remaining Big 12 schools gave a shit about academics, then Stanford would still be a good get just for access to its research facilities. That's what has made ASU so reticent to leave the PAC - they've made a ton of money on research through their relationship to Stanford and don't see the same thing happening with any of the Big 12 schools. Not sure that it makes much of a difference, but something to keep in mind. 

 

 

Previous post sums it up.....

 

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

 

 

 

 

[LTbear 4159]

15 minutes ago, Park Gothic said:

If the remaining Big 12 schools gave a shit about academics, then Stanford would still be a good get just for access to its research facilities. That's what has made ASU so reticent to leave the PAC - they've made a ton of money on research through their relationship to Stanford and don't see the same thing happening with any of the Big 12 schools. Not sure that it makes much of a difference, but something to keep in mind. 

Being in the same athletic conference as Stanford (or whoever) does not bring grant funding/ research upgrades/ etc. Any ASU researchers working on projects that overlap with Stanford researchers are building those collaborations regardless of athletics, and vice versa. Hell most researchers don't even know what athletic conference their school is in. This internet myth of "being in the same conference impacts academics" sounds right to people who aren't in academia, and as such it just refuses to die. It's like the old line of Ann Richards getting Baylor into the Big XII (it was Bullock).  

[Uncle Nate 2097]

 

 

[Uncle Nate 2097]

11 minutes ago, LTbear said:

Being in the same athletic conference as Stanford (or whoever) does not bring grant funding/ research upgrades/ etc. Any ASU researchers working on projects that overlap with Stanford researchers are building those collaborations regardless of athletics, and vice versa. Hell most researchers don't even know what athletic conference their school is in. This internet myth of "being in the same conference impacts academics" sounds right to people who aren't in academia, and as such it just refuses to die. It's like the old line of Ann Richards getting Baylor into the Big XII (it was Bullock).  

[bullet 1596]

1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

 

Bro, tipping culture is out of control!

Go GK is next going to set up a GoFundMe account for the Pac?

[Dnaguy 11769]

5 minutes ago, Uncle Nate said:

 

 

 

That hurts to watch.