Realignment talk not going away

[gatormarc 904]

16 minutes ago, USC Traveler said:

The exit fee is three times the annual revenue received, so, like the GOR buyout, ND's exit fee will be small because it's only their non-football rights that are involved.  It's a completely different world than what FSU and Clemson are looking at.

 

Are we sure about that? Everything I've read states that the Exit Fee is based on the ACC's revenue and ND's fee is not reduced. So they'd be looking at $100M Exit + ~$150 M GoR buyout prior to any negotiations.

Half of what full members are looking at but still significant.

Quote

ND would make at least $70m/year in the BIG, but we know there are escalators in the BIG deal specifically for ND, so that base number would be higher.

The payout also goes up each year.  Compared to the their current deal, they'd be in the black by year 3 even with the exit fee and buying out the GOR.

But that number is assuming that their current deal doesn't change. Remember the NBC deal is about to end and also the ACC's payout increases every year as well.

Quote

The question is how much is NBC willing to pay them for an ACC-heavy home schedule each year ?

The delta between NBC's offer vs what they can make in the BIG (and still have their home games exclusively on NBC as part of the deal to join) is what will determine things.  

Agree with this.

If they get the expected $60M from NBC plus their ACC payout, I'd be surprised if the delta was less than 5 years for Notre Dame.

Edited August 1, 2023 by gatormarc

[Jasper_Jester 356]

3 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

An absolute gamble on viewership with Apple TV subs when other conferences have guaranteed deals at higher values.  Seems really really fucking shitty.

Bet on yourself!

Include Apple Plus subscription in the annual fees and tuition for every Pac12 student and reap the rewards.

Getting on a streaming only platform seems like at least as good of a decision as letting FTX put their name on your stadium or field.

 

/s 

[BurntOrange&White 39614]

[Jabberwocky 1666]

2 minutes ago, John80 said:

So the conference that is already making the most money will get involved in a massive ugly legal battle for Florida State? Only people from Florida State could believe this.

I have no idea if this is true, but that is what they are saying.

Apparently the admin and major donor(s) are ready to go through with all this. They feel like they were made certain promises when they signed the last GOR and started the ACC network, but those promises have not come close to being realized. They think they can use these promises in court somehow. FSU feels like they were swindled by ESPN, and are now being held captive in this bad deal.

Remember, the ACC Network was not even carried by Comcast, the largest cable provider in the Southeast, for two or three years after its creation.

We will see, as I have my doubts as well.

[BurntOrange&White 39614]

 

 

 

Edited August 1, 2023 by BurntOrange&White

[In re UofA 29]

On 6/25/2023 at 3:26 PM, In re UofA said:

To me, creative and forward thinking means a deal with Apple that pays a low guarantee with incentives tied to subscriptions. The conference will boast per school distribution *up to* $30M per year but in the coming years it will produce half that considering the conference assumed production costs, Comcast paybacks and predictable consumer ambivalence. PAC admin has been horribad for so long a poor deal is inevitable. 

Pegged this in June. On brand for the Pac to present real numbers to members for the first time over a year after it went to market. Only the clueless  accepts a deal expecting to hit subscription bonuses, which is why George hadn’t shared them.

[BurntOrange&White 39614]

Just now, In re UofA said:

Pegged this in June. On brand for the Pac to present real numbers to members for the first time over a year after it went to market. Only the clueless  accepts a deal expecting to hit subscription bonuses, which is why George hadn’t shared them.

I’d wager he presented to them what he thought was the “best” deal. 

[Josef Pwag 1723]

 

[General Specific 3232]

I had an argument?

[Dutch 4465]

[notre dame joe 172]

17 hours ago, Texas Wahoo said:

If true, it’s pretty embarrassing for Fox how low the fs1 rankings are each week. 

I am curious about FS1 coverage too.  Is it part of those 'streaming services' that are actually cable packages transmitted over the internet?   There is a Roku and a Pluto service that have a sports section (I never check).  Also Sling is basically a skinny cable package distributed in over an inefficient medium.

17 hours ago, Sandman said:

Does ND have some sort of out that I've missed (Which is entirely possible)? I thought they were locked in the ACC for years?

SIAP.  Yes, these scenarios all assume the AVC has dissolved.

[bullet 1596]

https://9to5mac.com/2023/08/01/apple-tv-pac12-streaming/?extended-comments=1

Saw this posted on another site from a non-sports source:

 

"Although a deal is not yet approved, Apple looks set to land the streaming rights for the Pac-12 sports conference. As reported by ESPN’s Pet Thamel, the Pac-12 hosted a meeting today with its conference schools, proposing Apple as their new TV rights partner.

The arrangement would materialize in a similar vein to MLS Season Pass, which sees all MLS games exclusively stream through the Apple TV app. Like MLS Season Pass, access to the Pac-12 channel would likely be a standalone subscription (separate to Apple TV+).

While nothing has yet been agreed, there are reportedly no alternatives to the Apple deal on the table. Some Pac-12 schools are hesitant to go forward with a streaming TV future, worried that their viewership and exposure would drop significantly compared to the traditional TV and cable broadcast model.

Reportedly, only Apple would offer financial terms at levels the conference would deem acceptable. Terms of the arrangement remain under lock and key, but are rumored to be in the region of $20-25 million per school, with bonus incentives if certain subscription levels were hit.

This is slightly lower than what schools in the Big 12 conference attained through their most recent media rights deal, which landed at around $31 million per school. (Behind the scenes, some Pac-12 members have threatened to leave and join the Big 12, if the conference could not secure a similar deal.)..."

[Crockett 481]

12 minutes ago, Dutch said:

If this is true, Utah is screwed.

[CustersDoctor 584]

11 minutes ago, Josef Pwag said:

 

The PAC12 network actually made a lot from subscriptions. And it met what Larry Scott said it would. He literally said it would gross $10mill a year per school and it did. What he didn't say is that the over head would be $90mill a year, leaving 36mill to be divided 12 ways. So a decade ago, the university presidents drooled over the gross of 120mill a year but had no clue that there was such a thing as overhead.

[Big Frog II 511]

Who out there would buy Apple TV just to watch the Pac?  I wouldn't.

[gatormarc 904]

3 minutes ago, Big Frog II said:

Who out there would buy Apple TV just to watch the Pac?  I wouldn't.

$7 a month isn't a bad deal.

Something tells me the standalone ESPN streaming thing is gonna be $30+

[ChiTownDoc 21098]

3 hours ago, Josef Pwag said:

ACC and Pac fans who talk about the academic benefits of playing in a certain conference (other than the B1G) are a lot like people who believe in aliens. They are passionate about their beliefs, but get really upset when you press them for specifics. 

Bit more accurate around here these days...

[Samson's Wig 3178]

7 minutes ago, Big Frog II said:

Who out there would buy Apple TV just to watch the Pac?  I wouldn't.

I already have Apple TV and still won't watch the Pac.

Edited August 1, 2023 by Samson's Wig

[Dutch 4465]

8 minutes ago, Big Frog II said:

Who out there would buy Apple TV just to watch the Pac?  I wouldn't.

If the deal is anything like MLS, the PAC package would be an additional fee on top of the $7/mo Apple TV+ costs.

Edited August 1, 2023 by Dutch

[TexEx15 17456]

Yea unless they have a PAC 12 version of Messi coming to the rescue they are fucked. If I have options I’m jumping immediately.

[Jabberwocky 1666]

Spoiler

When it comes to conference realignment, football teams want to play where the money is. And not enough money is available in the Atlantic Coast Conference.

Florida State’s future in the league is on borrowed time. The Seminoles’ next move remains fiercely debated and complex.

Big Ten? SEC? Make a play on their own?

Leadership has been extremely candid in its tone about the possibility of leaving the conference because of the growing revenue gap between the league and the Power Two – SEC and Big 10.

Florida State must keep pressure on ACC when it comes to revenue sharing
That trend could continue during Wednesday’s Board of Trustees meeting.

While athletics is currently not on the agenda, it’s in FSU’s best interest to publicly continue to express its strong feelings about deserving additional revenue from the conference.

FSU President Richard McCullough drew a line in the sand a year ago at the Tallahassee Chamber of Commerce Conference when he mentioned Seminole football and conference realignment and said, "We're trying to do anything we can to think about how we remain competitive. Florida State is expected to win. We're going to be very aggressive."

And FSU Director of Athletics Michael Alford, on the lead horse, yelled ‘Charge” at last February’s BOT meeting when he said “Something has to change” in regards to conference revenue sharing and the Seminoles’ future in the ACC.

That’s the issue.

FSU doesn’t have a future in the ACC under the league's house rules.

Even while the ACC has created a new revenue distribution model that will reward success based on postseason performance starting in 2024-25, the math doesn't add up. The league will fall further behind the SEC and Big Ten in revenue by about $30 to $40 million per year when their respective new television contracts start (Big Ten in 2023, SEC in 2024).

The ACC’s grant of rights deal with ESPN (exclusive media rights to game broadcasts) extends until 2036. It has been a lead balloon for members. But they granted their media rights to the ACC through the length of the contract and decide how to split the dough. ESPN, as a television partner, could renegotiate the conference payout. But it is losing subscribers, laying off employees and scuffling as a business, too.

Of course, Colorado’s abrupt exit from the Pac-12 to the Big 12 has reignited hot-and-heavy conference chatter. Is Arizona the next to jump? FSU also seems to be trending. The latest on social media is FSU, Clemson, Oregon and Washington will announce by week’s end their intentions to join the Big Ten.

These are certainties:

FSU and others in the ACC like Clemson and Miami have recognized the financial landscape isn’t going to improve on Tobacco Road.

Contracts are negotiable.

The ACC has seen its revenues soar the past two decades, but it still won't have enough surplus cash to keep pace with the Power Two. And neither the SEC or Big Ten wants to be a step behind the other. They have watched, waited and winked at each other (with rubber mallets hidden behind their backs).

The ACC’s future, despite its successes on the field and in the classroom, is in peril.

It closed out the 2022-23 academic year with a league-record nine NCAA titles and 29 individual national championships. And seven schools ranked among the top-40 in the 2022 U.S. News National Rankings (FSU was No. 55).

League Commissioner Jim Phillips is also a respected, integrity-driven leader who is working tirelessly to identify new revenue. He has done all he can to provide an image of strength, saying at ACC Media Days he's "bullish" about the league's future. Last week he also told ESPN the league continues to actively consider adding teams but has not identified enough value in any expansion option.

Yet any step is an uphill climb when there are ACC school presidents who still resist improving football (and athletics) in the league.

While the ACC is currently No. 3 behind the Big Ten and SEC in terms of revenue, that badge of honor is simply not good enough. Especially if the courts of law, as many believe, determine the college sports model is further outdated. Student-athletes two years ago were finally allowed to monetize their name, image and likeness (NIL), and some have found it to be quite lucrative.

If student-athletes are one day classified as employees, schools with the most revenue have a built-in advantage to acquire talent (players and coaches) and invest in facilities. Those revenue-sharing models, particularly in the profit-generating sports of football and basketball, would spell further doom for the ACC (and others) and potentially turn nonrevenue sports into glorified club teams.

What's the end game for FSU and conference realignment?
Any school planning to leave the ACC in the next year would have to notify the conference in writing by Aug. 15. If not, it means schools must remain in the league for two more years.

While there is no change in the Seminoles' status as an ACC member at this moment, they literally can’t afford to remain in the ACC beyond two more years. It will be expensive to leave and, in its own way, expensive to stay and attempt to keep pace with schools with more dough and resources. FSU could negotiate the league’s $120 million exit fee; dig its heels in for the legal battle over the sticky grant of rights and jump conferences (for a negotiated deal); or venture out solo, without a safety net.

Status quo doesn't work anymore.

That's why Alford, in a mad rush, has made substantial investments in football since he was hired 19 months ago. He is working daily to make FSU marketable to other conferences. The Seminoles had fallen behind nationally in resources and wins (32-32 in the ACC since 2015).

Despite the challenges, FSU's brand is strong and undervalued in the ACC.

The Seminoles averaged 2.03 million viewers per game during their 10-win season in 2022 under Mike Norvell, and three games eclipsed the 4 million mark. The FSU-Florida game in a special Black Friday slot was ABC's most-watched game (6.71 viewers) on date since 2005. The Seminoles actually played last season in the two most-watched games to include an ACC team.

It's also about who you are right now.

Norvell, who received a contract extension last February that nearly doubled his annual salary to $8.05 million, has brought stability to FSU. He has embraced expectations, underlined core values and emphasized sustaining success. The Seminoles enter 2023 in the national conversation and its opener against LSU in Orlando is a likely top-10 showdown.

Conference realignment starts with football, but where does it end?

Two major Super Conferences in the SEC and Big Ten?

Four 20-team conferences in the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC/combined with the Pac-12, which appears to be on life support?

Time will tell.

 

[ChiTownDoc 21098]

We need ASU to get dragged in with AZ.  The annual herpes bowl in Albuquerque between Tech and ASU could save the big 12 all by itself.  

['stache 21758]

It looks like AU and ASU operate under the same board of regents. That seems unusual, OU and OSU are separate systems, and we're about half the population of Arizona. 

[Royale with cheese 1456]

4 hours ago, LTbear said:

It is not true; it's just something that sounds right to people online. Grants aren't awarded for athletic association (and that's the only association that is being discussed here), and playing football against another school doesn't make a researcher suddenly realize there are people at Stanford working on similar projects and thus a collaboration could be born (any decent researcher already knows of EVERYONE in their field). 

FWIW, I'm a college professor who spent a combined 7 years at Stanford and Cal. 

 

[Jabberwocky 1666]

 

[Jabberwocky 1666]

The Chairman of the FSU BOR will be live on Warchant today at 6 pm.

They seem to want to make a bunch of noise at this moment.

[CustersDoctor 584]

16 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

We need ASU to get dragged in with AZ.  The annual herpes bowl in Albuquerque between Tech and ASU could save the big 12 all by itself.  

Spermagedon

[gatormarc 904]

24 minutes ago, Dutch said:

If the deal is anything like MLS, the PAC package would be an additional fee on top of the $7/mo Apple TV+ costs.

I had no idea you had to pay extra for it.

Never watched a game and figured it was included the same way Amazon has some NFL games.

Never really looked any further into it. Looks like it's an additional $13/month. 

[BurntOrange&White 39614]

 

 

[Sandman 3402]

23 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

The annual herpes bowl in Albuquerque between Tech and ASU could save the big 12 all by itself.

Careful, that kind of talk will just lure ou back to the B12.

[ChiTownDoc 21098]

3 minutes ago, Sandman said:

Careful, that kind of talk will just lure ou back to the B12.

I was born in Lubbock and, of course, went to OU.  Say what you want, but OU can't compete with tech and ASU.  And I used to love me some ASU trips.  Still like their coeds/grads in AZ.  Probably gonna veer into secret squirrel so I'll leave it at that.   

[Jabberwocky 1666]

 

[Deej 76542]

2 hours ago, Richard Kimball said:

Schools won't jump until they see the final numbers. If you never show them the final numbers, they can't ever jump. 

PAC 12 schools:

 

 

[Jabberwocky 1666]

 

[Francisco 2.0 32318]

57 minutes ago, Big Frog II said:

Who out there would buy Apple TV just to watch the Pac?  I wouldn't.

 

We have an Apple One sub for the family.  Part of that $30 a month for music, storage and all that jazz is a sub for Apple TV.  Use it from time to time.  Ted Lasso, for instance.

So, I'm one of those that the Pac 12 is counting on to maintain a subscription....and I'm sure I might catch some compelling game on that service.  Might.

Because it would have to be very compelling and more entertaining that whatever was happening at the same time that Fox, CBS, ABC/ESPN or Fox Sports was showing.  Which I highly doubt.

 

 

[SimonBolivar 10911]

2 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

We have an Apple One sub for the family.  Part of that $30 a month for music, storage and all that jazz is a sub for Apple TV.  Use it from time to time.  Ted Lasso, for instance.

So, I'm one of those that the Pac 12 is counting on to maintain a subscription....and I'm sure I might catch some compelling game on that service.  Might.

Because it would have to be very compelling and more entertaining that whatever was happening at the same time that Fox, CBS, ABC/ESPN or Fox Sports was showing.  Which I highly doubt.

 

 

Does that come with MLS Season Pass? Because if not they're still going to want you to pony up for the Pac12 probably.

[hornbri 1370]

2 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

We have an Apple One sub for the family.  Part of that $30 a month for music, storage and all that jazz is a sub for Apple TV.  Use it from time to time.  Ted Lasso, for instance.

So, I'm one of those that the Pac 12 is counting on to maintain a subscription....and I'm sure I might catch some compelling game on that service.  Might.

Because it would have to be very compelling and more entertaining that whatever was happening at the same time that Fox, CBS, ABC/ESPN or Fox Sports was showing.  Which I highly doubt.

 

 

But Apple One does not include MLS. If the PAC is an add on on top of the current subscription would you add it to maybe catch a game? I doubt many of us will. 

[gatormarc 904]

14 minutes ago, Jabberwocky said:

 

Seems like the best solution for all involved is just to close up shop.

Go ahead and turn the fake classroom stadium into a real classroom.

[Francisco 2.0 32318]

1 minute ago, hornbri said:

But Apple One does not include MLS. If the PAC is an add on on top of the current subscription would you add it to maybe catch a game? I doubt many of us will. 

 

In that case, no.  I'm not paying anything extra for Pac-Whatever.

 

 

[Francisco 2.0 32318]

3 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

Does that come with MLS Season Pass? Because if not they're still going to want you to pony up for the Pac12 probably.

 

I was informed by @HornBri that what I have does not come with MLS, so, no it does not.  I'm not going to pay for Pac programming.

 

 

[PilotsError 2281]

I'm only 44 and I just won't stream sports.  Not even the Cowboys or Horns. It's such a pain in the ass, and I'm not unique among my friends.  I realize many of you do.

I predict numbers for the Apple subs to be below even the lowest predicted thresh hold.  Catastrophic.  

[Jasper_Jester 356]

interesting on Apple TV thoughts/ So, do you all get ESPN+ free? because I bet ESPN is going to push as many big12 games to that service as they can now that they get all the Tier 3 content.

[Pasken 1309]

1 minute ago, PilotsError said:

I'm only 44 and I just won't stream sports.  Not even the Cowboys or Horns. It's such a pain in the ass, and I'm not unique among my friends.  I realize many of you do.

I predict numbers for the Apple subs to be below even the lowest predicted thresh hold.  Catastrophic.  

Streaming is annoying bc there aren't a lot of arrangements like this. Streaming from Apple is insanely easy and simple. No bullshit. It's hard for me to understand how so many ppl are insistent on freaking cable in 2023 but maybe I'm the crazy one.

[Chewbacca 7729]

2 minutes ago, Jasper_Jester said:

interesting on Apple TV thoughts/ So, do you all get ESPN+ free? because I bet ESPN is going to push as many big12 games to that service as they can now that they get all the Tier 3 content.

Will be interesting to see how hoops sorts out on TV.  As terrible as the Pac 12 network was as far as revenue, it was fantastic for being able to watch all the basketball games.  Guess I'll be getting ESPN+.

[Chewbacca 7729]

2 minutes ago, Pasken said:

Streaming is annoying bc there aren't a lot of arrangements like this. Streaming from Apple is insanely easy and simple. No bullshit. It's hard for me to understand how so many ppl are insistent on freaking cable in 2023 but maybe I'm the crazy one.

I'm still on cable because Comcast is my only choice (other than Starlink) for high speed internet.  If I could cut that without giving Musk money, I'd cut the cord and do something like YouTube TV or similar.

[Jasper_Jester 356]

1 minute ago, PilotsError said:

I'm only 44 and I just won't stream sports.  Not even the Cowboys or Horns. It's such a pain in the ass, and I'm not unique among my friends.  I realize many of you do.

I predict numbers for the Apple subs to be below even the lowest predicted thresh hold.  Catastrophic.  

 Streaming is really no more complicated than trying to operate an xfinity box and find the game.

I have a roku box because I like the apps better but every TV you buy has an OS on it that has every app imaginable available.

What do you do if the Cowboys are on Prime? skip it?

[Francisco 2.0 32318]

4 minutes ago, PilotsError said:

I'm only 44 and I just won't stream sports.  Not even the Cowboys or Horns. It's such a pain in the ass, and I'm not unique among my friends.  I realize many of you do.

I predict numbers for the Apple subs to be below even the lowest predicted thresh hold.  Catastrophic.  

I'm 56, and I stream NBA League Pass.  It's dirt simple, and aside from the annoyances of blackouts (and if a game is broadcast on TNT or ESPN it won't be on League Pass) it's damned convenient.

What I won't don't want to do is piecemeal a sport (say, college football) and have to subscribe to 4-5 different services in order to catch this or that game.  

[Jasper_Jester 356]

4 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

I'm still on cable because Comcast is my only choice (other than Starlink) for high speed internet.  If I could cut that without giving Musk money, I'd cut the cord and do something like YouTube TV or similar.

might be cheaper to just get the cable and pick a streamer instead of paying for that Xfinity box. But, depends on what channels you need/want. We have super fast internet alternatives so we come in way under what Comcast is charging for TV for the things we watch.

 

EDIT typo

Edited August 1, 2023 by Jasper_Jester

[Francisco 2.0 32318]

 

 

 

[PilotsError 2281]

3 minutes ago, Jasper_Jester said:

 Streaming is really no more complicated than trying to operate an xfinity box and find the game.

I have a roku box because I like the apps better but every TV you buy has an OS on it that has every app imaginable available.

What do you do if the Cowboys are on Prime? skip it?

 

Skip it.  Admittedly, sports has gone from consuming my life to something I barely pay attention to.  Which I think puts me in the frame of mind of a Pac 10 fan.  

If they take the Apple deal I don't even see how they could continue as a conference.