Realignment talk not going away

[Welshy 914]

46 minutes ago, NOOBSDUDE said:

I pay $130 for high speed fiber internet and cable with spectrum and I can take the spectrum app anywhere I go. I love it.

 89 for 1tb. usually pull about 900gb/100dl

[Sandbagging Steve 982]

2 hours ago, Gaffords said:

The new demand is matchups.  FSU vs Florida, Bama, LSU, Georgia, Texas, OU, etc on a regular basis, is worth more to ESPN than FSU vs Clemson. Especially when Clemson would likely follow... And if there is anything to the Big 10 rumors are real, that puts UNC and whoever else with value in the SEC also. Which is where everything is headed anyways. If not now, 13 years from now the ACC. Will get carved up.  If I were in charge of the ACC or the Big 12, I'd really start to consider it being time to shed bloat and merge the best of what's left to maximize their value. It's what's the Networks are practically doing. They are maximizing the bang for their bucks..  it used to be regional matchups between rivals that made money...  Then TV money came in and it was the size of your footprint that had the value, but now, they are after the national eyes.   I'm a huge college football fan, but I don't care about rivalry games between Ole Miss and Miss St for example. Not many outside of their region give a shit either. But more of them would tune in to watch FSU play either of them.  Paying 30 to. 50 million to the Purdues, Vandys, North Westerns. Etc while paying 20 million to the FSUs and Clemson isn't ESPNs ideal of good business.  They would love nothing more than to pay the schools what they are worth period...  There is a gap between P5 and G5s. Most of the G5s that have P5 value have made it up a rung, and as  we are about to see, some P5 bottom feeders are about to lose their free ride and get sent down the ladder... the ACC is next... 

It's simple, the PAC viewership is something like (and has been for decades) 1/4 less than the other conferences (per population).  This is why they are dead in the water today. The teams that have value, become more valuable if you put them playing teams back east. Now those teams stop being shackled to that late window. 

The ACC death came with the introduction of conference networks. They are in the SEC and BIG 10 footprint even if there's no SEC/B10 teams in that state... The value they have is maximized by matching them against schools most of the population in their area follow. Sending many of them  to the G5 pool where their 4 thousand fans can watch them playing more along their level is a win win for everyone...

The BIG 12 is im a good place. People in its footprint watch football..  it's a perfect landing spot for teams that have value, but are redundant the SEC/BIG 10... I'm sure there's teams in the SEC and B10 that the networks wish they could swap out with some Big 12 schools, but they know they can't win them all..  iif they could, they would dump about half the p5 schools completely and create the NFL Jr out of the rest.. 

  

Good overview of where this has been heading since the OU lawsuit in the 80s. It's taken a long time to wrestle the power away from the idoit college presidents but we are getting there. The elimination of the PAC and ACC will put a wet blanket on the nonsense that are Stanford and UNC running a conference. I guarantee you that's not an accident. Larry Scott didn't kill the PAC. Stanford killed the PAC. He was nothing but their puppet.

This all looks chaotic, but BCD, the executives have a pretty good idea of how this is all going to play out. I feel the chaotic nature is by design. Some college presidents have no common sense and this is usually needed to get to the best end result. It also can help minimize potential lawsuits.  Magically, the B1G and the SEC are going to both win realignment and pick up the programs some of us predicted many decades ago. The Big 12 will reap the benefits of being the most well-run organization outside the Big 2. The finished result will not look so chaotic.

There's no doubt Robert Robbins has just been letting this play out, but he has known for the past year the final result. As already stated, this chaos is going to lead to a finished result you could have come very close to predicting 30 years ago. The other option was USC/Texas/OU partnering up to form a third power conference. UNC/UVA are the only real coin flips and they're currently under ESPN control.

A few of us have been preaching this for years before Bob Thompson's bullshit agenda caused a percentage of posters to lose track of the real reason all this is happening.  

1. Conferences will not stop at 16.

2. Conferences will eventually have more conference games than the 8/9 that is standard right now. This will create a more balanced schedule across the landscape and increase compensation with more competitive games.

3. This is about the elimination of deadweight to get more big matchups. Not only big matchups but fewer blowouts. One of the reasons the Big 12 has overperformed is that they play an exciting brand of football and produce fewer blowouts.

This is happening in real-time with consolidation of conferences which will then one day lead to the elimination of Big 2 football members like Vanderbilt. But let's not go too far, programs like South Carolina and Ole Miss still have some value. Flagship programs with competitive football programs bring some value.

Programs on the Big 2 chopping block: some private schools, secondary programs in small states with limited recruiting territory, and teams that just are rarely ever competitive on the field with no hope of rehab.

There are more worthy Big 2 programs than just Notre Dame. There are many variables that go into the value of a program. 

4. ESPN/FOX/NBC/CBS is not going to get cash-strapped in this scenario. These moves will increase revenue in the long run for very little added investment. It will eventually save money as well with the consolidation of deadweight.

4. Commissioners and media executives are slowly taking as much power away from college presidents as possible and establishing some damn rules for the game.

 

[Welshy 914]

37 minutes ago, Saint Austin said:

Are most Univ. of Utah folks not also LDS?

It's fact that everyone in Utah, and anyone who happens to be close to Utah, is a Mormon alien worshiper. *except for the drug addled washout teen epidemic. **aka anyone under 20 not on mission.

Utah are the progressives...there are no aliens, but everything else is true, like Jebus in ancient Murica. 

 

Neg me, BYU fan. Dare you. 

Edited August 3, 2023 by Welshy

[Crockett 517]

1 hour ago, FartingDreamer said:

It's crazy, back before Urban Meyer came in 2003, their fanbase was small and limited to pockets in SLC and Davis/Weber Counties and the rivalry was friendly and good natured.  Then Urban Meyer came and turned it toxic, they started winning and all of their fans started coming out of the wood works and by fans, I mean those who use the rivalry as an avenue of hate towards LDS and the LDS church.  They were obnoxious before, but became completely insufferable and toxic after and after moving up to the Pac 12, they became delusional and arrogant in every way, they were and are completely toxic.   They lack self awareness because their football heritage goes back all of 20 years and they are obsessed with and hate BYU more then they support and root for their own program.  

You're right. Urban Meyer wouldn't mention BYU by name; just called us "the school down south" and he put BYU logos in the urinals. A real class act.  

[Sandbagging Steve 982]

Also, when ASU and Arizona joined the PAC back in the day, one of the programs had to be convinced to make the move. I believe it was Arizona that had to be convinced by ASU and the BOR to make the move. I'm sure Bullet can clarify for us. I do remember reading something about it decades ago. I say that to say I'm sure the Board and Arizona will talk some sense into that idoit Crow who is trying to kill the entire ASU sports program right now

[jTower 251]

On 3/25/2018 at 8:39 AM, mdmost said:

No, you bastards. Let it die. Nothing's happening. Except maybe the Pac 12 blowing up due to lack of revenue. Oh God, what have I done! 

Pods!

Prescient 

 

 

except pods

[Crockett 517]

2 minutes ago, Welshy said:

Neg me, BYU fan. Dare you. 

[Trey3216 15452]

 

[USC Traveler 488]

2 hours ago, Uncle Nate said:

Please be Utah. Please be Utah. Please be Utah. 
 

A year ago I was indifferent to them. But then I got to know them this past year. They are my Johnny Ringo. I really hate them. 

You've been killing it itt lately.  Between the tweets you've linked and your own posts, you have been bringing the lulz.

Well done sir.

 

[bullet 1630]

2 hours ago, HornsOverIthaca said:

There is a shortage in the clown labor market.

Well maybe Canzano and Wilner have been auditioning!!!

[bullet 1630]

44 minutes ago, Sandbagging Steve said:

Also, when ASU and Arizona joined the PAC back in the day, one of the programs had to be convinced to make the move. I believe it was Arizona that had to be convinced by ASU and the BOR to make the move. I'm sure Bullet can clarify for us. I do remember reading something about it decades ago. I say that to say I'm sure the Board and Arizona will talk some sense into that idoit Crow who is trying to kill the entire ASU sports program right now

I don't remember that but its possible.  Mainly I remember Stanford had to be convinced by USC to accept them.  Arizona St. was the one who had a really good run under Frank Kush.

[Upgrayedd 5889]

49 minutes ago, Sandbagging Steve said:

Also, when ASU and Arizona joined the PAC back in the day, one of the programs had to be convinced to make the move. I believe it was Arizona that had to be convinced by ASU and the BOR to make the move. I'm sure Bullet can clarify for us. I do remember reading something about it decades ago. I say that to say I'm sure the Board and Arizona will talk some sense into that idoit Crow who is trying to kill the entire ASU sports program right now

I think it was the other way around tbh.  AU had to do the convincing.

Spot on about Crow being an idiot. 

[Sandbagging Steve 982]

1 minute ago, bullet said:

I don't remember that but its possible.  Mainly I remember Stanford had to be convinced by USC to accept them.  Arizona St. was the one who had a really good run under Frank Kush.

^^All true.

So, I just Googled to find it was ASU that tried to turn down the PAC offer. Here is an article written a few years ago.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/college/asu/2019/06/22/pac-8-expansion-asu-has-ua-thank-push-move-wac-pac/3535235002/

 

[Gaffords 778]

47 minutes ago, Sandbagging Steve said:

Good overview of where this has been heading since the OU lawsuit in the 80s. It's taken a long time to wrestle the power away from the idoit college presidents but we are getting there. The elimination of the PAC and ACC will put a wet blanket on the nonsense that are Stanford and UNC running a conference. I guarantee you that's not an accident. Larry Scott didn't kill the PAC. Stanford killed the PAC. He was nothing but their puppet.

This all looks chaotic, but BCD, the executives have a pretty good idea of how this is all going to play out. I feel the chaotic nature is by design. Some college presidents have no common sense and this is usually needed to get to the best end result. It also can help minimize potential lawsuits.  Magically, the B1G and the SEC are going to both win realignment and pick up the programs some of us predicted many decades ago. The Big 12 will reap the benefits of being the most well-run organization outside the Big 2. The finished result will not look so chaotic.

There's no doubt Robert Robbins has just been letting this play out, but he has known for the past year the final result. As already stated, this chaos is going to lead to a finished result you could have come very close to predicting 30 years ago. The other option was USC/Texas/OU partnering up to form a third power conference. UNC/UVA are the only real coin flips and they're currently under ESPN control.

A few of us have been preaching this for years before Bob Thompson's bullshit agenda caused a percentage of posters to lose track of the real reason all this is happening.  

1. Conferences will not stop at 16.

2. Conferences will eventually have more conference games than the 8/9 that is standard right now. This will create a more balanced schedule across the landscape and increase compensation with more competitive games.

3. This is about the elimination of deadweight to get more big matchups. Not only big matchups but fewer blowouts. One of the reasons the Big 12 has overperformed is that they play an exciting brand of football and produce fewer blowouts.

This is happening in real-time with consolidation of conferences which will then one day lead to the elimination of Big 2 football members like Vanderbilt. But let's not go too far, programs like South Carolina and Ole Miss still have some value. Flagship programs with competitive football programs bring some value.

Programs on the Big 2 chopping block: some private schools, secondary programs in small states with limited recruiting territory, and teams that just are rarely ever competitive on the field with no hope of rehab.

There are more worthy Big 2 programs than just Notre Dame. There are many variables that go into the value of a program. 

4. ESPN/FOX/NBC/CBS is not going to get cash-strapped in this scenario. These moves will increase revenue in the long run for very little added investment. It will eventually save money as well with the consolidation of deadweight.

4. Commissioners and media executives are slowly taking as much power away from college presidents as possible and establishing some damn rules for the game.

 

If the  rumors of the Big 10 taking Stanford are true, they will be in position to put ND in checkmate at will, with Stanford, Michigan, and Stanford all in the Big 10, and once there's a clearer picture of how playing 8 vs 9 conference games factors in with the playoff committee, ND is about to have to decide between anchoring either the ACC, the Big 12 or joining the Big 10.  It isn't in the Big 10s best interest for three of their members to play ND yearly. Especially when they expect two of those  three to constantly be in the playoff picture. 

The Big 12 is probably most balanced so the extra money from playing ND vs the chance of that one of those games being the difference of getting another team in the playoffs might not be worth it. The SEC, with OU and UT coming in, doesn't benefit from  ND playing their teams very often either, leaving ND faced either actually becoming a true Blueblood and anchoring a conference, or joining one.  

Speaking of playoffs, this PAC thing is going to put a wrench in the current setup. If they survive, the Big 10  and the SEC are not going to be cool with losing a playoff spot or two to a conference made up of UO, UW, the scrub Cali schools, Boise St, Hawaii Wyoming, SDSU, Fresno, San Jose, SMU, Saint Marys school for the Blind...  If UO or UW can't go undefeated with that schedule, they should be banned from football for a year, so going undefeated shouldn't automatically be a playoff spot either... At least the Big 12 has legs to stand on. They have two recent playoff teams (one made the finals). UFC and BYU have shown they can play big boy football outside of fluke seasons. Baylor, TT, OSU, ISU, and WVU are not considered cupcakes by anyone's metric. It doesn't shock anyone when they beat good teams. They do quite often.  But if the PAC dies (which is probable) it still changes the playoff auto bids.  Either way, there will be some questions people will want clarification on as soon as the smoke clears out west 

[USC Traveler 488]

2 hours ago, Gaffords said:

I remember.  You were my insite into the real sentiment within the PAC.  When you told me about the clause USC and UCLA received when the PAC went to  equal revenue distribution made it easy to see this train wreck coming from back then. 

Knowing what to look for and what things would affect it , it was easy to see the cracks forming and growing, and when the DirecTV deal didn't happen. I posted that was the final straw and the PAC just became unstable.  Everyone thought I was crazy, because the PAC was as stable as it gets, I just responded with just sit back and watch... It won't be noticeable at first but you will start to hear things, not in the media, but within the local writers, and that not only is the PAC going to become unstable.  Call me crazy all you want, and it will probably be a year or two before it's becomes noticable, but not only is the PAC in serious danger of collapse, I can name the two schools to watch closely, starting around a year before their current contract expires. But Scott not getting it done with the last real hope of getting a breakthrough for PACNET with the national carriers just put USC and UCLA up to be poached....   

Nobody wanted to listen, but it isn't rocket science.  USC isn't giving up it's 100 plus years of elite status in football with a "well we had a good run" just because the PAC missed the money train. They will do just like we or any other school that has the ability to do so, they will go where the money's at....

I love you guys getting slaughtered all over the place by everyone.  Embrace it and bask in the glory of all those tears. Especially when you can look everyone of the left behinds and tell them they know their school would do the same if it was given the chance...   If the money gap had been a few million USC would still be there, but a 10 20 30 million gap? It's not a complicated choice... 

During our media days, the #2 head of the Big 12 took some comical shots at us...  Since we have money, I guess we are supposed to be happy to continue working for a fraction of our value and be happy, you know, just with being able to  provide food for the B12 children... 

I'm not sure when they forgot that we are the University of Texas, and not the University of the Big 12.  Our leadership in place to do what they believe is in the best interest of the University of Texas and that's what they do... In fact they see to it that we pay out membership fees to the BIG 12 so it can afford to hire competent people who to oversee what's best for the conference as a whole.  Seeing Texas as a cash cow and never bother to ask yourself how big is the money gap going to have to get between the BIG 12 and the 2 big boys before it might become an issue.  The failure of both of our conferences to identify things that will become major issues until it runs them over and an in hindsight is brain numbing. Instead, we hear Texas has money so they won't care that schools in other conferences make 2 or 3 times they do...  Texas has money because it's been good at managing its personal money, and sitting on it's thumb doing nothing about getting left off the money train goes against the reasons why Texas has money...  If the BIG 12s office had bothered to glance at OUs football board, it wouldn't have taken long to see their fanbase has been wanting to leave for years and it was going to be just a matter of time before its administration would have to cave...  None of this is hard to foresee.. maybe the when and where of things can be, but not the issues that will cost you the schools that are of value to richer conferences.  But a huge money gap and exposure gap is a sure ringer every single time.  It isn't USC or UT place to look out for the conference. It's the conference's job to look out for them.  That's the whole reason they are part of the conference to begin with...

Oh, and it was the right call to vote against expansion.  It wasn't just the right call to make, it was the only call USC could make.  Blocking that from happening especially knowing the flack you would face once you announced your departure, shows you have standards you hold yourself to...  It would have been fucked up to allow any poaching of other schools without putting all your cards on the table. No matter how much they cry about it.  It was the correct call to make

Well said my friend- across the board.  The PAC is getting what it deserves after passing on bringing in UT and OU two different times.  It's crazy.  

As we always said, realignment is CFB Game of Thrones- you win or you die.  USC wasn't going to vote to expand in 2021 and be forced to sign a new GOR in the process.  No fucking way.  None of the other PAC schools wanted to expand anyway.  They just blame USC now to cover up for their decades of mismanagement, including passing on B12 schools multiple times over the years due to a combination of coastal elitism, academic snobbery, and religious bigotry.

If you and I were in charge of the B12 and PAC (or any of the other OGs from Shaggy realignment like mdmost, hagbard, camel, burntorange&white, and bullet were in charge), we'd have a 3 superconference world with a PAC16 merger that went through with the LHN because we all knew that was the PAC's only shot at staying on a level playing field with the big boys.

We'd have added FSU, Clemson and Miami 10 years ago to collapse the ACC and brought in ND to make it Prestige Worldwide 20.

Conference headquarters in Hawaii.  CCG in the Rose Bowl.  Conference tourneys in Vegas and conference meetings rotating between Ibiza, Bangkok and Cartagena.

What could have been........instead we had Larry Scott, Klownkoff, Beebe and Bowlsby.  Literally, a clown show.

Oh well, I'm fired up for the BIG, fired up for UT and OU in the SEC, and fired up to watch a lot of fun B12 games.  

Hopefully we see you guys in the playoffs soon.  Still the highest-rated CFB game of all time.

[Sandbagging Steve 982]

3 minutes ago, Gaffords said:

If the  rumors of the Big 10 taking Stanford are true, they will be in position to put ND in checkmate at will, with Stanford, Michigan, and Stanford all in the Big 10, and once there's a clearer picture of how playing 8 vs 9 conference games factors in with the playoff committee, ND is about to have to decide between anchoring either the ACC, the Big 12 or joining the Big 10.  It isn't in the Big 10s best interest for three of their members to play ND yearly. Especially when they expect two of those  three to constantly be in the playoff picture. 

The Big 12 is probably most balanced so the extra money from playing ND vs the chance of that one of those games being the difference of getting another team in the playoffs might not be worth it. The SEC, with OU and UT coming in, doesn't benefit from  ND playing their teams very often either, leaving ND faced either actually becoming a true Blueblood and anchoring a conference, or joining one.  

Speaking of playoffs, this PAC thing is going to put a wrench in the current setup. If they survive, the Big 10  and the SEC are not going to be cool with losing a playoff spot or two to a conference made up of UO, UW, the scrub Cali schools, Boise St, Hawaii Wyoming, SDSU, Fresno, San Jose, SMU, Saint Marys school for the Blind...  If UO or UW can't go undefeated with that schedule, they should be banned from football for a year, so going undefeated shouldn't automatically be a playoff spot either... At least the Big 12 has legs to stand on. They have two recent playoff teams (one made the finals). UFC and BYU have shown they can play big boy football outside of fluke seasons. Baylor, TT, OSU, ISU, and WVU are not considered cupcakes by anyone's metric. It doesn't shock anyone when they beat good teams. They do quite often.  But if the PAC dies (which is probable) it still changes the playoff auto bids.  Either way, there will be some questions people will want clarification on as soon as the smoke clears out west 

FSU is interesting. I think they do have some leverage and I think they're willing to spend to find out. I don't know if they'll use it now or in a year or two. It seems like they are preparing to use it now. I do feel enough teams in the ACC have a good landing spot to blow that conference up completely.

I don't think SEC/ESPN can take a chance on the B1G landing USC, ND, FSU and Miami. Long term, that could potentially kill the SEC. If the B1G is all over SEC territory and recruiting at a higher rate and starts winning championships at a high rate, they already have the bigger regional fan base. They could then invite Texas, Georgia and Florida to the B1G for a huge payday. This is all way down the line, but you have to plan for all the possibilities. If I'm SEC/ESPN, I'm not losing FSU.

[bolverk 30323]

2 hours ago, FartingDreamer said:

It's crazy, back before Urban Meyer came in 2003, their fanbase was small and limited to pockets in SLC and Davis/Weber Counties and the rivalry was friendly and good natured.  Then Urban Meyer came and turned it toxic, they started winning and all of their fans started coming out of the wood works and by fans, I mean those who use the rivalry as an avenue of hate towards LDS and the LDS church.  They were obnoxious before, but became completely insufferable and toxic after and after moving up to the Pac 12, they became delusional and arrogant in every way, they were and are completely toxic.   They lack self awareness because their football heritage goes back all of 20 years and they are obsessed with and hate BYU more then they support and root for their own program.  

 

2 hours ago, FartingDreamer said:

And how do I know?  I served my mission north of SLC of all places and we'd have trucks in Ute logo stickers flipping us off and yelling all sorts of crap at us as we were walking and riding our bikes.  I didn't grow up with the rivalry because I grew up in Northeast Texas so it was my first exposure to their fanbase.  

 

Let me preface this by saying I've never met a Utah fan in my life, so I'll have to take your word on the animosity toward the LDS by way of BYU in that state. I don't know if it's rational or even if there's any cause for reason. At this, I can only speculate.

However, I can easily imagine how a non-LDS person might feel living in Utah as someone who spent many of my formative years living in an area that was dominated by a religious flavor to which I didn't adhere, and I can speak with a good bit of experience in saying that it absolutely sucks to be proselytized to and considered a deviant sinner by a large group who control all the levers of power in a particular locale.

Could those same feelings be driving the BYU hate by Utah fans, who maybe are fans solely for the above reasons? It certainly seems plausible, given the enthusiastic testimony of LDS witnesses whose mission is to win over as many converts as possible by riding through neighborhoods and knocking on every door without asking. I can imagine those missions are especially intense in the heart of Mormon country.

Have you ever asked yourself whether it was you who was without self-awareness? I dunno. Just some food for thought.

[TKthunder2 5059]

2 hours ago, Welshy said:

It's amazing to me that BYU is now more digestible than UTAH.

What a world. 

Woah now, let’s not go that far. They both suck. Utah is just the having its turn at the top of the leaderboard, BYU will get a chance to suck again soon enough.

Edited August 3, 2023 by TKthunder2

[Richard Kimball 1523]

46 minutes ago, Gaffords said:

...they will be in position to put ND in checkmate at will, with Stanford, Michigan, and Stanford all in the Big 10, ...

You said Stanford twice. 

I like Stanford.

[USC Traveler 488]

Wilner piece below from last September, when he was still an actual reporter instead of a cheerleader.

To his credit he was spot on about a lot of the future scenarios for realignment, but his timetable for when Klownkoff was going to present the tv deal was 2-6 weeks, so mid-October 2022 at the latest.  He has moved the goalposts for the last 11 months carrying water for the PAC.  Complete loss of credibility.

He, Clownzano, the PAC Presidents and Utah fans are the only people dumb enough to buy Klownkoff's bs for the last year.

I love that Klownkoff has finally been exposed for the clueless, emtpy suit that he is.

 

Quote

 

As Pac-12 teams prepare for Week Two, the existential clock approaches zero hour.

The future of the conference — and major college football — likely will be determined in the next six weeks. The exact timing is difficult to predict because so many entities have a hand in realignment decisions, from university presidents to conference commissioners to media companies.

Also, because the stakes are massive.

Will Power Five restructuring continue or come to a halt?

Will the Big Ten continue its predatory ways and gobble up additional West Coast campuses?

Will the Four Corners schools bolt for the Big 12?

Is the 107-year-old Pac-12 merely weeks away from extinction?

Welcome to a Hotline series examining the future of the Pac-12 — yes, another Hotline series on Pac-12 survival.

We plunged into the issue in July and examined topics that ranged from a possible merger with the Big 12 and the TV ratings without USC and UCLA to the significance of the 7:30 p.m. kickoff window and what should be the Pac-12’s No. 1 expansion candidate. We also dove into the media valuation of the conference without the Los Angeles market.

On the surface, nothing has changed since June 30, when the Bruins and Trojans announced their departures for the Big Ten in 2024. Nobody else has left the conference; nobody has joined the conference; no contracts have been signed.

But behind the scenes, the situation is highly fluid and indisputably flammable — and not just with respect to the Pac-12. The futures of the ACC and Big 12 are at stake, as well.

In this first installment of our second series, the Hotline will sketch a scenario for the future of the Pac-12, the Power Five and the sport as a whole.

Multiple scenarios, in fact.

Although the timing and the outcome are difficult to predict, the epicenter for additional realignment is apparent to all: The Big Ten.

We have zero doubt that further expansion is coming — that the Big Ten eventually will grow to at least 20 schools and, subsequently, spark a massive restructuring of the major conferences.

But is the next move coming this fall? Or toward the end of its next media rights contract cycle? Or not until the mid 2030s?

Adding Washington, Oregon, Stanford and Cal would create partners for the Los Angeles schools, thereby limiting the amount of cross-country travel for athletes in all sports and easing scheduling complications.

Expanding this fall also would place the Big Ten and its network partners in control of the valuable fourth broadcast window (the 7:30 p.m. Pacific kickoffs). If Fox, CBS and NBC aren’t interested, ESPN and Amazon surely would be.

How does the fault rupture?

At some point in the next six weeks, Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff puts a medium-term media rights proposal on the table for the 10 remaining schools. The deal is crafted carefully to expire in 2029 — one year before the Big Ten’s new contract.

The four schools with wandering eyes turn to the Big Ten and state, effectively: We’re signing a five-year deal with the Pac-12 unless you make us an offer.

If the Big Ten opens its doors, the Pac-12 liquifies:

— Oregon, Washington, Cal and Stanford join the Los Angeles schools to form a six-campus western division.

— Arizona, ASU, Colorado and Utah respond by joining the Big 12.

— Oregon State and Washington State reach an agreement with the Mountain West.

And just like that, the conference is no more.

Based on his public comments, Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren appears to favor additional expansion sooner than later.

Why? Perhaps he views the creation of a western division purely as a legacy play, a means of escaping former commissioner Jim Delany’s ever-present shadow. Perhaps Warren is wholly convinced a 20-team conference would best serve his membership. Either way, he doesn’t make the final decision — the Big Ten presidents run the show.

Are they ready to kill off the conference that has been the Big Ten’s partner for a century? Do they want Pac-12 blood on their hands? The scenario for additional expansion this fall is plenty plausible, but we aren’t convinced it’s the likeliestnear-term scenario.

There are reasons for the Big Ten to stand down, first and foremost the devastating blow it would deal to the Pac-12 and the resulting disruption throughout college athletics.

There is also the cash component.

Are the Big Ten’s current media partners (Fox, NBC and CBS) capable of keeping the schools whole if four more mouths feed at the trough? Not in our opinion.

Would the Big Ten campuses accept reduced revenue shares to accommodate the additions? Unlikely.

One option would be to create the western division and license the 7:30 p.m. (Pacific) inventory to ESPN or Amazon. But does Fox want to share the Los Angeles market? Would ESPN accept such an arrangement at whatever price Fox establishes? Those are crucial unknowns.

In our view, the likeliest near-term scenario — and it’s closer to 60 percent than 90 percent — is the Big Ten presidents pass on further expansion.

Perhaps in two weeks, perhaps in four or six, Kliavkoff places a contract offer on the table with ESPN as the primary, and perhaps exclusive media partner. The four schools with Big Ten aspirations turn to Warren for a definitive decision, and they are told the door is closed, for now.

So the Pac-12 signs a five-year media rights contract that expires in the summer of 2029, one year before the Big Ten’s deal. It carries an annual average value in the mid-to-high $300 million range.

With the agreement reached, the Pac-12 plows forward, united, into the new contract cycle and, like the Big 12 and ACC, waits for the next realignment wave.

It begins, once again, in the Big Ten.

As the conference approaches the end of its seven-year media agreement, in the spring of 2030, the push to expand returns. And this time, everything liquefies.

First, the Big Ten gobbles up Washington, Oregon, Stanford and Cal to form its western division.

Then the shock waves spread east, and south.

Unlike the Big Ten, the SEC isn’t actively considering expansion — it’s perfectly content as a 16-team conference with Oklahoma and Texas. But by the end of the decade, the strategy shifts.

After the Big Ten’s westward move, the SEC makes clear to certain members of the ACC that a membership pathway exists if the schools sever their grant-of-rights contract.

Much has been made of this agreement, which binds each member’s media revenue to the conference until the summer of 2036. But show us a contract that cannot be severed by the will of its signatories and the work of their attorneys, and we’ll show you a world that doesn’t exist.

Because for the top ACC football schools, the expense that comes with breaking the grant-of-rights pales in comparison to the cost of sticking together.

They see the revenue flowing into the Big Ten after it signs yet another media rights deal — this one worth more than $2 billion annually due to the ever-increasing value of live sports and the additions of the four West Coast schools.

The SEC will see those Big Ten revenue numbers, too, and there’s one way to close the gap.

Much like the Pac-12, the ACC shatters.

Florida State and Clemson head to the SEC, while a bidding war erupts over North Carolina and Virginia.

What of Miami? The Hurricanes aren’t a first choice of either the SEC or Big Ten, but Fox’s desire to plant a flag in Florida eventually earns Miami a bid to the Big Ten.

We also wonder about Kansas and Duke, which have the academic credentials to interest Big Ten presidents and possess two of the few basketball programs that move the ratings needle.

Notre Dame, however, will remain an Independent.

Meanwhile, the Big 12 undergoes its own transformation, one spurred by the expansion of the SEC and Big Ten and the expiration of its own media rights deal in the 2029-31 window.

Whether the Big 12 ends up with 20 or 24 members, we aren’t sure. And it might not include the same core that exists today. The league could dissolve and reform, perhaps without some current members, perhaps with a new name.

Whatever the specifics, a third conference houses the top football and basketball schools not invited to the SEC and Big 12. It spans four time zones and, despite generating far less revenue than the SEC and Big Ten, produces a competitive and entertaining product.

We view that scenario — the restructuring of the Power Five at the end of the 2020s — as more likely than the dissolution of the Pac-12 this fall.

And had this column been published 10 days ago, the Hotline would have been completely convinced of the Power Five fault line rupturing at the end of the decade.

But the university presidents who make up the College Football Playoff’s Board of Managers have given us reason for pause.

The expansion of the playoff to 12 teams will prove to be the most profound change in the history of college football, with one exception: The 1984 Supreme Court ruling that ended the NCAA’s grip on media rights and allowed conferences to cut their own deals.

Expansion to 12 is more significant than even the creation of the four-team playoff itself. It will transform the sport in ways we haven’t considered, in addition to those obvious here and now.

At this tumultuous time, expansion has injected relevance into the ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 regular seasons and has done the same for every league in the Group of Five.

It has provided a pillar of resistance to the growing hegemony of the SEC and Big Ten.

 

 

[USC Traveler 488]

Utah 247 board mod said he thinks Utah will join the AZ schools and head to B12.

95% of their board is in a full state of mourning about all the glories of the PAC that they will miss.  These are the same people who were the most positive that Klownkoff had this in the bag, who believed every word Clownzano said, and who dumped on the B12 the hardest.  They have finally realized that they were played for fools, and hate the idea of going to the B12.  Karma is a bitch, and yes, I am enjoying their tears.

 

I actually feel bad for the rational 5% of the people on that board who smelled a rat in Klownkoff/Clownzano/Wilner.  The PAC-pumpers shit on the realists for being too negative for the last year, and now they're shitting on them for being too happy about the fact that they have a lifeline in the B12 instead of the MWC.

 

[DanTheHorn 5079]

5 hours ago, FartingDreamer said:

It's crazy, back before Urban Meyer came in 2003, their fanbase was small and limited to pockets in SLC and Davis/Weber Counties and the rivalry was friendly and good natured.  Then Urban Meyer came and turned it toxic, they started winning and all of their fans started coming out of the wood works and by fans, I mean those who use the rivalry as an avenue of hate towards LDS and the LDS church.  They were obnoxious before, but became completely insufferable and toxic after and after moving up to the Pac 12, they became delusional and arrogant in every way, they were and are completely toxic.   They lack self awareness because their football heritage goes back all of 20 years and they are obsessed with and hate BYU more then they support and root for their own program.  

Now you talked me into it, Utah to the BIG 12.

Edited August 3, 2023 by DanTheHorn

[notre dame joe 205]

11 hours ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

Hey I've seen this one before, they obviously read the first part of Hitlers plan to topple Russia, kicking in the front door to let the rest of the rotten house fall in upon itself. Guessing they stopped reading there and decided thats a great plan...

The Seminoles won't get stuck in the snow trying to break into the SEC but it's a possibility with the BUG.

[Not a Sock 2366]

Will you stupid fucks quit regurgitating the FSU fraud theory. If that dumb message board crap is was credible I would have been able to sue Penny Mac for fraud when interest rates went lower than the rates of my fixed rate mortgage.

[BurntOrange&White 41857]

 

Tend to agree with Stewart here.....

['stache 22133]

BYU fans shitting on Utah incessantly and comparing them to aggy…

 

 

 

Edited August 3, 2023 by 'stache

[Texas Wahoo 3631]

49 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

 

Tend to agree with Stewart here.....

The fact that FSU’s administration and regents are being so public about wanting to leave leads me to believe they do not have a viable way di leave. Every other team that has left a conference has been quiet about it before leaving, at least publicly. 

[Josef Pwag 1912]

19 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

The fact that FSU’s administration and regents are being so public about wanting to leave leads me to believe they do not have a viable way di leave. Every other team that has left a conference has been quiet about it before leaving, at least publicly. 

I watched the whole meeting. It was unlike anything I have ever seen. The bald guy who is the chair of the board was supremely confident they had a plan and twice said he would be back in touch with an update "soon." He had a sly smile like an aggie who found a lost sheep on a deserted country road. A lot of people think FSU will wait a year. I don't think so. I think they drop whatever bomb they think they have in their arsenal before 8/15. 

[Al_4_ISU 12623]

6 hours ago, USC Traveler said:

Utah 247 board mod said he thinks Utah will join the AZ schools and head to B12.

95% of their board is in a full state of mourning about all the glories of the PAC that they will miss.  These are the same people who were the most positive that Klownkoff had this in the bag, who believed every word Clownzano said, and who dumped on the B12 the hardest.  They have finally realized that they were played for fools, and hate the idea of going to the B12.  Karma is a bitch, and yes, I am enjoying their tears.

 

I actually feel bad for the rational 5% of the people on that board who smelled a rat in Klownkoff/Clownzano/Wilner.  The PAC-pumpers shit on the realists for being too negative for the last year, and now they're shitting on them for being too happy about the fact that they have a lifeline in the B12 instead of the MWC.

 

Everyone needs a villain and the new Big 12 was feeling a little chummy outside of your usual spats (Farmageddon, Revivalry, Tech/OSU arguing about hand pistols).  Utah's delusion fills that void well.

[gatormarc 937]

It's been interesting to see the different perspective about Utah.

I work with a few Utes who live in SLC, and they're all pretty laid back and are really casual about the whole thing. It might be because none of them are die hard football fans.

There are occasional chatter about odd laws that Utah has (or had) in place to appease Mormons but usual talk is ways to work around them or do their own thing, like Pie & Beer Day. 

Also, those that traveled to Gainesville last year were pretty easy going (though they didn't really interact with Gators but did their own thing), but I think that would go for anyone who has the means and desire to travel a few thousand miles for a football game against a non-rival.

There's no need for any animosity between us. Urban is long gone and any bitterness from that is long gone.

[hook me 2163]

13 hours ago, Gaffords said:

The new demand is matchups.  FSU vs Florida, Bama, LSU, Georgia, Texas, OU, etc on a regular basis, is worth more to ESPN than FSU vs Clemson. Especially when Clemson would likely follow... And if there is anything to the Big 10 rumors are real, that puts UNC and whoever else with value in the SEC also. Which is where everything is headed anyways. If not now, 13 years from now the ACC. Will get carved up.  If I were in charge of the ACC or the Big 12, I'd really start to consider it being time to shed bloat and merge the best of what's left to maximize their value. It's what's the Networks are practically doing. They are maximizing the bang for their bucks..  it used to be regional matchups between rivals that made money...  Then TV money came in and it was the size of your footprint that had the value, but now, they are after the national eyes.   I'm a huge college football fan, but I don't care about rivalry games between Ole Miss and Miss St for example. Not many outside of their region give a shit either. But more of them would tune in to watch FSU play either of them.  Paying 30 to. 50 million to the Purdues, Vandys, North Westerns. Etc while paying 20 million to the FSUs and Clemson isn't ESPNs ideal of good business.  They would love nothing more than to pay the schools what they are worth period...  There is a gap between P5 and G5s. Most of the G5s that have P5 value have made it up a rung, and as  we are about to see, some P5 bottom feeders are about to lose their free ride and get sent down the ladder... the ACC is next... 

It's simple, the PAC viewership is something like (and has been for decades) 1/4 less than the other conferences (per population).  This is why they are dead in the water today. The teams that have value, become more valuable if you put them playing teams back east. Now those teams stop being shackled to that late window. 

The ACC death came with the introduction of conference networks. They are in the SEC and BIG 10 footprint even if there's no SEC/B10 teams in that state... The value they have is maximized by matching them against schools most of the population in their area follow. Sending many of them  to the G5 pool where their 4 thousand fans can watch them playing more along their level is a win win for everyone...

The BIG 12 is im a good place. People in its footprint watch football..  it's a perfect landing spot for teams that have value, but are redundant the SEC/BIG 10... I'm sure there's teams in the SEC and B10 that the networks wish they could swap out with some Big 12 schools, but they know they can't win them all..  iif they could, they would dump about half the p5 schools completely and create the NFL Jr out of the rest.. 

  

Yeah I don't disagree with much of that, my point was ESPN has no need for FSU in the SEC right now. Paying Clemson & FSU $23mm/year is highway robbery & they have them under contract for 13 more years & they get a little ND football in there as well. If FSU wants to test the GOR then they're more than welcome to but all repots point to that being ironclad. There's no need for ESPN to touch the ACC until the SEC media rights are up (2034) which is close enough to the ACC rights being up that it makes sense to try & consolidate the most important brands & leave the rest to be scooped up by the Big 12 & G5 conferences. The ACC is absolutely next, but unless the school has the money for the ACC exit fee + GOR they aren't going anywhere for another 10 years.

[Uncle Nate 2097]

52 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Everyone needs a villain and the new Big 12 was feeling a little chummy outside of your usual spats (Farmageddon, Revivalry, Tech/OSU arguing about hand pistols).  Utah's delusion fills that void well.

Look, man...that's a big fucking deal.  It's the fireant hill I'm willing to die on, dammit!

And the correct terminology is "Guns up", not hand pistols.  Even Xerox U. has that part right. 

9 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

 

This is the winner.  I can't imagine any other being a more perfect fit than this one.

Reddit is King and Extreme Emperor of Internet Memes.

['stache 22133]

1 hour ago, gatormarc said:

It's been interesting to see the different perspective about Utah.

I work with a few Utes who live in SLC, and they're all pretty laid back and are really casual about the whole thing. It might be because none of them are die hard football fans.

There are occasional chatter about odd laws that Utah has (or had) in place to appease Mormons but usual talk is ways to work around them or do their own thing, like Pie & Beer Day. 

Also, those that traveled to Gainesville last year were pretty easy going (though they didn't really interact with Gators but did their own thing), but I think that would go for anyone who has the means and desire to travel a few thousand miles for a football game against a non-rival.

There's no need for any animosity between us. Urban is long gone and any bitterness from that is long gone.

Yeah, I don't really get why we're supposed to hate Utah so much. Because some message board fans thought they were too good for the Big XII? I view these things at an administrative level. There was some legitimate chatter than their administration thought they belonged with Stanford academically and looked down on the XII, and maybe its true that the admins thought that (which is really stupid to begin with), but if they see the writing on the wall and join, I have no problem with Utah. Even BYU fans know if they took a truth serum that the XII would have taken Utah in a heartbeat over BYU if they were available a year ago.

And, to whatever idiot above compared Utah to aggy, I just can't even start to break that one down. I'll just mention that aggy is literally the only college I can think of that, at an administrative level, takes the sports rivalry seriously and lets it infect everything else. Listen to the ADs and Presidents of OU and OSU speak about one another, always really respectful, and the schools collaborate on a lot of things for the betterment of the state. Only aggy has its president, provost, and AD higher ups talking legitimate trash on its in-state sports rival. I also encountered many aggy while in law school, their brains are just wired different, their aggy identity infects every aspect of their personality. It's utterly pathetic. 

Edited August 3, 2023 by 'stache

[Texas Wahoo 3631]

1 hour ago, Josef Pwag said:

I watched the whole meeting. It was unlike anything I have ever seen. The bald guy who is the chair of the board was supremely confident they had a plan and twice said he would be back in touch with an update "soon." He had a sly smile like an aggie who found a lost sheep on a deserted country road. A lot of people think FSU will wait a year. I don't think so. I think they drop whatever bomb they think they have in their arsenal before 8/15. 

Maybe.  I just do not see what FSU has to gain by bloviating about it so much if they have an exit strategy.  Maybe they are just idiots and they cannot help themselves, but repeatedly yelling about how unhappy you are sounds a lot more like someone that wants out and cannot figure out how to get out than someone that is about to leave.  This sounds like a school administration trying to show its fans/stakeholders that they are doing their best to get out.

[Horn of Gabriel 1886]

18 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Yeah, I don't really get why we're supposed to hate Utah so much. Because some message board fans thought they were too good for the Big XII? I view these things at an administrative level. There was some legitimate chatter than their administration thought they belonged with Stanford academically and looked down on the XII, and maybe its true that the admins thought that (which is really stupid to begin with), but if they see the writing on the wall and join, I have no problem with Utah. Even BYU fans know if they took a truth serum that the XII would have taken Utah in a heartbeat over BYU if they were available a year ago.

And, to whatever idiot above compared Utah to aggy, I just can't even start to break that one down. I'll just mention that aggy is literally the only college I can think of that, at an administrative level, takes the sports rivalry seriously and lets it infect everything else. Listen to the ADs and Presidents of OU and OSU speak about one another, always really respectful, and the schools collaborate on a lot of things for the betterment of the state. Only aggy has its president, provost, and AD higher ups talking legitimate trash on its in-state sports rival. I also encountered many aggy while in law school, their brains are just wired different, their aggy identity infects every aspect of their personality. It's utterly pathetic. 

It's mostly the BYU contingent here that is staying Utah is the worst thing ever.  That's...expected?  Everyone thinks their rivals are the worst thing ever and toss puppies into bonfires while laughing (except for OU, where they actually do that).

Turn this around from the Utah perspective and I have empathy...the PAC brought them up to the big leagues.  They've built themselves up as a legit power there and won it twice in a row now, taking down the likes of USC.  If I were them I'd want things to remain the same too.  They'll be fine in the Big12 and that's probably where they culturally belong anyway.

[hook me 2163]

17 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

Maybe.  I just do not see what FSU has to gain by bloviating about it so much if they have an exit strategy.  Maybe they are just idiots and they cannot help themselves, but repeatedly yelling about how unhappy you are sounds a lot more like someone that wants out and cannot figure out how to get out than someone that is about to leave.  This sounds like a school administration trying to show its fans/stakeholders that they are doing their best to get out.

I can't wait for the hysteria the moment FSU has one of their games on the CW. The reactions are going to be glorious.

[Frank Drebin 5834]

25 minutes ago, hook me said:

I can't wait for the hysteria the moment FSU has one of their games on the CW. The reactions are going to be glorious.

[Gidnik 3486]

I wonder if 20 years from now with the benefit of hindsight we look back and the big 12 expanded too much

[BurntOrange&White 41857]

 

 

[Al_4_ISU 12623]

I don't think Utah is evil.  I just think their fans come off as laughably delusional and easy to dislike.  They'll make things more entertaining for sure.

[thunderlounge 8409]

3 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

 

 

So like 10, 11 months?

[Josef Pwag 1912]

56 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

I just do not see what FSU has to gain by bloviating about it so much if they have an exit strategy.  

My guess is they have a legal strategy to attack the GOR. It may or may not be valid, it may or may not work....but they have a theory. I think the grandstanding is to set the stage for their fans. This is a unique situation. This isn't like Texas & OU saying we will leave the Big 12 when our contract is up. This is a school burning a long-term contract to the ground. This is going to involve a nasty & protracted legal process. They want FSU fans to be convinced that all of the unpleasantness is necessary. 

[Deej 77814]

5 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I don't think Utah is evil.  I just think their fans come off as laughably delusional and easy to dislike.  They'll make things more entertaining for sure.

They'd be a perfect fit for the new Big 12, then. 

[bullet 1630]

10 hours ago, Sandbagging Steve said:

^^All true.

So, I just Googled to find it was ASU that tried to turn down the PAC offer. Here is an article written a few years ago.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/college/asu/2019/06/22/pac-8-expansion-asu-has-ua-thank-push-move-wac-pac/3535235002/

 

So Crow isn't the first idiot they've had as president!

[Vertigo 20492]

8 minutes ago, Josef Pwag said:

My guess is they have a legal strategy to attack the GOR. It may or may not be valid, it may or may not work....but they have a theory. I think the grandstanding is to set the stage for their fans. This is a unique situation. This isn't like Texas & OU saying we will leave the Big 12 when our contract is up. This is a school burning a long-term contract to the ground. This is going to involve a nasty & protracted legal process. They want FSU fans to be convinced that all of the unpleasantness is necessary. 

I actually think this is just intense saber rattling to get the ACC to give them a bigger revenue distribution. A move to the B1G really doesn't make sense for FSU. Now if the SEC is moving undercover and has given them an offer, I could see that being different, but they would be in as shitty of a situation as USC and UCLA are with their closest opponent being over 1000 miles away. 

Edited August 3, 2023 by Vertigo

[DanTheHorn 5079]

It is finally starting to set in since they are no longer putting themselves in the consideration lists.

 

[bullet 1630]

9 hours ago, USC Traveler said:

Wilner piece below from last September, when he was still an actual reporter instead of a cheerleader.

To his credit he was spot on about a lot of the future scenarios for realignment, but his timetable for when Klownkoff was going to present the tv deal was 2-6 weeks, so mid-October 2022 at the latest.  He has moved the goalposts for the last 11 months carrying water for the PAC.  Complete loss of credibility.

He, Clownzano, the PAC Presidents and Utah fans are the only people dumb enough to buy Klownkoff's bs for the last year.

I love that Klownkoff has finally been exposed for the clueless, emtpy suit that he is.

 

 

You forgot Stewart Mandel and Tony Altimore also in the proaganda hut.

Propaganda hut

[DanTheHorn 5079]

2 minutes ago, bullet said:

You forgot Stewart Mandel and Tony Altimore also in the proaganda hut.

Tony is now exited to no end about the PAC's demise.

 

[HornsOverIthaca 2339]

8 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

It is finally starting to set in since they are no longer putting themselves in the consideration lists.

 

Oh no!  Anyway

['stache 22133]

22 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I don't think Utah is evil.  I just think their fans come off as laughably delusional and easy to dislike.  They'll make things more entertaining for sure.

I guess I'm not clear where this comes from, Utah message boards? I've learned not to judge fanbases based on the select few who post on message boards. We tend to trend towards degenerate fans. If it comes down to football success, they can hardly be called delusional after thumping USC twice to win back to back PAC 12 titles. They can at least back up some arrogance on the field. I doubt i'll encounter many Utah fans on regular basis so that also means I don't really care if their fans are good or bad. From what I can tell, BYU fans are truly delusional, especially everytime they say "NatioNAl FanBASe", it's truly laughable.