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Realignment talk not going away


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  On 8/4/2023 at 10:57 PM, LTtxfan said:

Big 10 took advantage of a bargain...

Oregon, Washington agree to massive financial discounts in accepting invitations to Big Ten

SCOTT ROUSSEL         14 MINUTES AGO

 

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Still a smart move for those schools. B1G also smart for getting them at a price more in line with their value.

Rutgers, Indiana, Purdue, Maryland now just stealing money at this  point. 

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  On 8/4/2023 at 10:58 PM, BachelorTrek said:

That's where we differ.

I don't want to see B12 teams ever again, and I won't watch their games on TV. They aren't going to get NEAR the TV ratings people seem to think they'll get, but you'll soon find that out for yourself.

A lot of us Texas olds hope those cockroaches that decided their season's success each year on whether they beat Texas or not, will just dry up and disappear.

Not going to watch them on TV. Don't care. They can fuck off.

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Cool story bro. Fortunately, the people at ESPN work off more than feelings.

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  On 8/4/2023 at 10:35 PM, camel at sea said:

The problem is they've got to convince several schools to pay a $34M buyout to leave the MWC and they can't guarantee a big media deal to any school who makes that choice.  Maybe Apple will still pay well above the MWC payout if the rebuilt PAC goes all-in, but that remains to be seen.

 

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Yeah that’s about $140million the MWC schools would have to payout plus $40million the AAC schools would have to payout to join WSU/OSU/Cal/Stanford.

Those fees are more than Apple will pay for this new conference makeup.

A PAC/MWC merger seems like the obvious choice at this point:

Hawaii, SDSU, Fresno, SJSU, Cal, Stanford, OrSU, WSU, Boise, Nevada, UNLV, Utah St, Wyo, CO St, Air Force, New Mexico

 

They keep A5 status and can negotiate a new TV deal and likely get someone in the playoff in 24/25.

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  On 8/4/2023 at 11:12 PM, BachelorTrek said:

And even ESPN can't put lipstick on a pig and get people to watch.

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Then why are they paying $30M per school? It’s fine to say you won’t watch, but to say nobody will watch is stupid af. There are tens of millions of NFL fans who laugh at the thought of college football, and the average NFL game will double the ratings of the higher rated college games. Doesn’t mean “nobody” watches.l college football.

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  On 8/4/2023 at 11:18 PM, 'stache said:

Then why are they paying $30M per school? It’s fine to say you won’t watch, but to say nobody will watch is stupid af. There are tens of millions of NFL fans who laugh at the thought of college football, and the average NFL game will double the ratings of the higher rated college games. Doesn’t mean “nobody” watches.l college football.

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And as soon as the ratings aren't what they hoped for (yes, they'll be your narcissists that watch so the ratings will be non-zero), the pie for the have-nots shrinks, and I wouldn't be surprised if that could happen during the contract since ESPN won't take a bath on this.

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  On 8/4/2023 at 6:14 PM, bullet said:

All the people outside the Big 12 who were convinced no Pac school would deign to join the Big 12.  But CU did and Arizona really pushed UW and Oregon into acting.

And everybody but Brett McMurphy and me (since I believed him) thought as the USC guy did.

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You're forgetting someone here. Any time I've mentioned the word "Oregon" over the past year I've had 5 posters ready to go to war over it. I finally just stopped posting as I had a vacation coming up anyway. The new word is "Florida State."

All these moves have been known for a very long time. The chaos was deliberate. As I said last month, the fans went off the rails when Bob Thompson and all the West Coast media started lying their asses off.

Oregon and Washington were always going to the B1G from the moment USC/UCLA left. Big 12 moves aren't hard to figure out from there.  These moves weren't nearly as chaotic as they may seem. Sure, there are some idoit presidents that have to be given time and then shoved in the ass. But that doesn't change much at the end of the day.

I said it throughout this process: McMurphy is the best sportswriter in the business. He's not flashy. He doesn't do politics. His sources are vetted. He's always been this way. He's an old-fashioned journalist. No wonder Disney fired him. He's not willing to stir up drama when there's not any and he's not willing to play politics.

ACC is next.

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  On 8/4/2023 at 9:24 PM, Aqua Buddha said:

Help me out here.  Why is Arizona a bigger get than Arizona State?  Zona State is in a bigger market (Phoenix) and a larger school (65K students to 36K).  They're both the same in football with Arizona being better in basketball if that matters.

Thanks.  I'll hang up and listen.  

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After CU, they were the next PAC school most receptive to going B12 (b-ball, unhappiness with PAC second only to USC), so they were an important domino to get the whole thing to collapse and allow the B12 to get all of the 4C schools.

 

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https://theathletic.com/4748641/2023/08/04/pac-12-oregon-washington-big-ten/

 

  Quote

On the morning of Nov. 12, 2011, Palo Alto, Calif., was the improbable epicenter of college football. ESPN’s “College GameDay” was live from Stanford, where that night the undefeated, third-ranked Cardinal hosted sixth-ranked Oregon. The Pac-12 finished that regular season with three of the top six teams in the country. It was the same year that the league signed what was then the richest television contract in college sports history (12 years, $3 billion).

That this same storied conference would be on the verge of extinction just a dozen years later seems utterly inconceivable. And almost entirely self-inflicted.

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There will presumably be many eulogies written about the demise of the West Coast’s beloved, century-old Conference of Champions, a league that produced the likes of Bill Walton, Marcus Allen, Aaron Rodgers and Alex Morgan.

This is not that story.

This is the story of how 12 years of hubris, apathy and astounding mismanagement turned a once-shining mansion into a smoldering vat of ashes, with Oregon and Washington now following UCLA and USC to the Big Ten and Utah, Arizona and Arizona State set to join Colorado in the Big 12.

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Just months after that 2011 Stanford-Oregon game, the conference broke ground on a San Francisco studio facility for the soon-to-launch Pac-12 Networks. Former stars like Ronnie Lott and Marshawn Lynch joined commissioner Larry Scott in lofting ceremonial power drills. This was to be a seminal moment in Scott’s rebranding of the old, sleepy, Pac-10 Conference into a cutting-edge national trendsetter.

“It will feel ‘West Coast.’ Modern,” Scott said of the network that day.

But the conference’s next 12 years felt a lot like that studio building — a vacant space full of unrealized potential.

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  On 8/4/2023 at 8:50 PM, BachelorTrek said:

Wow, ASU has slowly reduced their stadium to 53,599 now from 74,865 in 1989.

I remember when Sun Devil Stadium, as it was called then, was in the 3-year-ish-field rotation for Super Bowls.

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Kentucky in the SEC reduced their stadium from 68k to 61k, which was below their usual attendance (mid 60s).

Stanford about 20 years ago dropped from 90,000 to 50,000.

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  On 8/4/2023 at 9:59 PM, Rimbo said:

basically Ohio and Pennsylvania being the exceptions

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You sure PA is an exception ?

PSU is a good school, but it's not in Penn's league (figuratively or literally.)

PSU is a much bigger school, so I guess it has more physical assets, but the value of a Wharton MBA vs a PSU MBA ?  Not close.

Without looking, I would assume Penn has a much bigger endowment also.

Edited by USC Traveler
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  On 8/4/2023 at 11:22 PM, BachelorTrek said:

And as soon as the ratings aren't what they hoped for (yes, they'll be your narcissists that watch so the ratings will be non-zero), the pie for the have-nots shrinks, and I wouldn't be surprised if that could happen during the contract since ESPN won't take a bath on this.

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Ratings are going to go up the more these moves are made. People want to see competitive football between like-minded programs and then have the best of those teams play for a title. 

Blowouts do not get good ratings.

Rigged championships turn people away, even if they still get fairly good ratings.

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  On 8/4/2023 at 8:57 PM, gatormarc said:

It wouldn't surprise me if Florida loses at least 5k in this upcoming $400M revision.

It's always been tight in the bleachers but butts are wider and Florida is getting hotter.

I used to hate sitting in the "cheap seats" in Sunshine Terrace (upper north endzone) but we sat there several games last season and having chairbacks plus room for air to flow sold me on those even though the perspective isn't as good as being on the sides.

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Tennessee could sure stand to lose a few thousand seats.  Its really tight in Knoxville and none of us are that big.

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  On 8/4/2023 at 11:27 PM, bullet said:

Kentucky in the SEC reduced their stadium from 68k to 61k, which was below their usual attendance (mid 60s).

Stanford about 20 years ago dropped from 90,000 to 50,000.

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I remember seeing pictures of the fault-line cracks in the Stanford stadium before the renovations, which now they have a tougher road to pay off since they've been..... Left Behind.

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  On 8/4/2023 at 11:22 PM, BachelorTrek said:
And as soon as the ratings aren't what they hoped for (yes, they'll be your narcissists that watch so the ratings will be non-zero), the pie for the have-nots shrinks, and I wouldn't be surprised if that could happen during the contract since ESPN won't take a bath on this.
If you're one of the haves, why would you even care about this? I don't get the obsession. We're irrelevant to you yet you can't help but hope we become...more irrelevant. Or something. Strange way to live.
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  On 8/4/2023 at 11:30 PM, Okie State said:
  On 8/4/2023 at 11:22 PM, BachelorTrek said:
And as soon as the ratings aren't what they hoped for (yes, they'll be your narcissists that watch so the ratings will be non-zero), the pie for the have-nots shrinks, and I wouldn't be surprised if that could happen during the contract since ESPN won't take a bath on this.
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If you're one of the haves, why would you even care about this? I don't get the obsession. We're irrelevant to you yet you can't help but hope we become...more irrelevant. Or something. Strange way to live.

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And you're on a TEXAS board complaining about it.  Lulz.

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  On 8/4/2023 at 11:18 PM, Aqua Buddha said:

What is now the best academic school in the new Big 12?  Kansas?

Lulz.

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Er...new BIG? Big 12 has as many AAU schools as the SEC and, hilariously, 3 more than the PAC. Big 12 = BIG-light!!!!!!!! Say hello to the second smartest conference in major college sports!

Academic superiority hasn't done much for Stanford in terms of the new athletic landscape.  

 

 

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  On 8/4/2023 at 11:17 PM, TKthunder2 said:

Yeah that’s about $140million the MWC schools would have to payout plus $40million the AAC schools would have to payout to join WSU/OSU/Cal/Stanford.

Those fees are more than Apple will pay for this new conference makeup.

A PAC/MWC merger seems like the obvious choice at this point:

Hawaii, SDSU, Fresno, SJSU, Cal, Stanford, OrSU, WSU, Boise, Nevada, UNLV, Utah St, Wyo, CO St, Air Force, New Mexico

 

They keep A5 status and can negotiate a new TV deal and likely get someone in the playoff in 24/25.

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A solution regarding MWC merger is the MWC inviting the remaining and rebranding as PAC and voiding all the Legals for the new league.

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  On 8/4/2023 at 9:23 PM, Richard Kimball said:

https://www.si.com/college/stanford/football/ranking-pac-12-teams-by-average-attendance-in-2022#gid=ci02b8bac4200125d6&pid=12-washington-state

Attendance stats for the PAC from 2022 show that B1G is getting the top three, (USC, Washington, Quack) B12 should be taking the next four, (Colorado, Arizona, the Arizona State fighting crows, and the Utah Youts) then B1G gets UCLA. Of the last four who don't have landing spots, Cal is the only one that drew over 30,000 per game. 

Of the top 25 teams in home attendance, Florida State, Clemson, Notre Dame and Virginia Tech are the only ones that aren't in either the SEC or B1G, or are committed to them for the future, and Clemson is the highest non SEC/B!G at #14. 

https://badgerswire.usatoday.com/lists/top-25-college-football-teams-in-home-attendance-for-2022-season/

Shows a clear demarcation. ACC is top heavy, but they're going to die on the vine if they don't figure out a way to get out of the contract. UCF being better funded than FSU drove them crazy. 

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Big 12+1 4 year averages (based on official changes)

Iowa State Big12 58,463
BYU Big12 58,336
Texas Tech Big12 54,681
Oklahoma State Big12 54,027
West Virginia Big12 53,327
Kansas State Big12 49,022
Colorado Big12 46,178
Baylor Big12 44,261
TCU Big12 42,960
UCF Big12 42,444
Cincinnati Big12 35,490
Kansas Big12 29,600
Houston Big12 26,456

 

ACC

Clemson ACC 80,363
Florida State ACC 62,060
Virginia Tech ACC 60,238
N Carolina State ACC 55,942
Miami, FL ACC 53,240
North Carolina ACC 47,501
Louisville ACC 46,456
Pittsburgh ACC 46,286
Virginia ACC 42,672
Georgia Tech ACC 39,957
Syracuse ACC 38,124
Boston College ACC 35,574
Wake Forest ACC 28,154
Duke ACC

23,097

 

Pac 9

Washington Pac12 65,571
Oregon Pac12 52,756
Utah Pac12 49,167
Arizona State Pac12 46,792
Arizona Pac12 41,019
California Pac12 40,320
Stanford Pac12 35,127
Oregon State Pac12 32,414
Washington State Pac12 27,009
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SEC 4 year averages

Alabama SEC 100,095
LSU SEC 99,266
Texas A&M SEC 99,100
Texas SEC 96,550
Georgia SEC 92,764
Tennessee SEC 91,942
Auburn SEC 85,394
Florida SEC 84,842
Oklahoma SEC 82,905
South Carolina SEC 74,277
Arkansas SEC 62,665
Kentucky SEC 56,209
Mississippi SEC 55,741
Mississippi State SEC 54,389
Missouri SEC 51,667
Vanderbilt SEC

26,746

 

Big 10

Michigan Big10 110,301
Penn State Big10 106,335
Ohio State Big10 101,687
Nebraska Big10 87,798
Wisconsin Big10 75,313
Michigan State Big10 69,896
Iowa Big10 67,407
Southern Cal Big10 58,877
Purdue Big10 54,651
UCLA Big10 45,606
Indiana Big10 44,010
Minnesota Big10 43,816
Rutgers Big10 40,817
Illinois Big10 37,783
Maryland Big10 35,352
Northwestern Big10 35,246
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  On 8/4/2023 at 11:18 PM, 'stache said:

Then why are they paying $30M per school? It’s fine to say you won’t watch, but to say nobody will watch is stupid af. There are tens of millions of NFL fans who laugh at the thought of college football, and the average NFL game will double the ratings of the higher rated college games. Doesn’t mean “nobody” watches.l college football.

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Schools and games in the 600k-2m range are valuable to networks. Top shows like succession get 2m viewers. To say there is no value there is pretty silly. Fucking cornhole is on espn pretty regularly, and network ratings are dog shit on saturday. Tournaments and college football are the ONLY Saturday draw. ESPN and Fox aren't a charity. If you want to know how fine tuned they are, look at the big12 deal and the lack of a pac deal. They aren't overspending. Content is scarce. 

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  On 8/4/2023 at 9:35 PM, Huckleberry said:

The University of State is always a more valuable property than State State University. Website out front shoulda told ya.

(Yes this is only true 95% of the time, but good rule of thumb)

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I think its true everywhere but the Dakotas and a few states where they called their flagship State U (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Louisiana).

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  On 8/4/2023 at 11:12 PM, USC Traveler said:

 

For realignment sickos like myself, we're never going to see another day like today.

 

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Just wait until the ACC explodes like a supervolcano. There are potentially 11 schools with Big 3 criteria. This will be the current NCAA's last stand. Whether the NCAA survives in name or not is anyone's guess. What's not up for debate is there's going to be a major overhaul in the rules and the way they are formed.

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  On 8/4/2023 at 11:42 PM, bullet said:

Big 12+1 4 year averages (based on official changes)

Iowa State Big12 58,463
BYU Big12 58,336
Texas Tech Big12 54,681
Oklahoma State Big12 54,027
West Virginia Big12 53,327
Kansas State Big12 49,022
Colorado Big12 46,178
Baylor Big12 44,261
TCU Big12 42,960
UCF Big12 42,444
Cincinnati Big12 35,490
Kansas Big12 29,600
Houston Big12 26,456

 

ACC

Clemson ACC 80,363
Florida State ACC 62,060
Virginia Tech ACC 60,238
N Carolina State ACC 55,942
Miami, FL ACC 53,240
North Carolina ACC 47,501
Louisville ACC 46,456
Pittsburgh ACC 46,286
Virginia ACC 42,672
Georgia Tech ACC 39,957
Syracuse ACC 38,124
Boston College ACC 35,574
Wake Forest ACC 28,154
Duke ACC

23,097

 

Pac 9

Washington Pac12 65,571
Oregon Pac12 52,756
Utah Pac12 49,167
Arizona State Pac12 46,792
Arizona Pac12 41,019
California Pac12 40,320
Stanford Pac12 35,127
Oregon State Pac12 32,414
Washington State Pac12 27,009
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Holy shit  no idea houston was that shitty 

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  On 8/4/2023 at 10:13 PM, closetojumping said:

Stanford football was a doormat before Harbaugh, the portal or NIL. Their historic resting spot in football is mediocre irrelevance. Independence for them will render them totally and completely worthless as an FBS program. If they can’t hold their nose and join the MWC and rebrand it the Pac Whatever, then they will and should go the Ivy League route. 

That’s not what Texas does. That won’t be what Texas does. 

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Stanford, probably because of academic standards, is always up and down.

Records:

1990s 60-54-2

2000s 47-69

2010s 98-35

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  On 8/4/2023 at 10:57 PM, LTtxfan said:

Big 10 took advantage of a bargain...

Oregon, Washington agree to massive financial discounts in accepting invitations to Big Ten

SCOTT ROUSSEL         14 MINUTES AGO

 

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Basically, they got the Rutgers deal, except Big 10 makes a lot more than when they signed up Rutgers.  Rutgers had a $205 million buy-in.  Rutgers also had nowhere else to go.

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  On 8/5/2023 at 12:07 AM, Hank_Hill said:

Well the stadium literally has/had cracks in it. I wouldn’t go to that shit hole either

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Yep, it really doesn't matter if that shithole area has gentrified or not, the same criminal elements tool around there on Scott & Elgin Streets, Wheeler Avenue, Cullen & MLK Boulevards and look at all the new buildings for a second before they look for their next mark.

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  On 8/5/2023 at 12:09 AM, bullet said:

Basically, they got the Rutgers deal, except Big 10 makes a lot more than when they signed up Rutgers.  Rutgers had a $205 million buy-in.  Rutgers also had nowhere else to go.

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That's one of the reasons these negotiations go until the last minute. Oregon and Washington will be getting about what they would have gotten joining the B12 during the first contract. Pretty sure they were holding out for a higher share, and kept waiting for B1G to blink. B1G didn't blink, so when they had the meeting to sign the PAC grant of rights, Oregon and Washington folded. 

BTW, @bullet thanks for posting those attendance numbers. 

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  On 8/4/2023 at 10:21 PM, BachelorTrek said:

Wilner thought that none of this was going to happen, and as the story evolved, his commentary sounded more and more like Denial.

He also sounded annoyed that this upset his PAC-world or interrupted his vacation, or all of the above.

Listening to that Entitled Fuckstick eat crow on the post-mortem will be gold!  Can't wait!   Lulz.

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Wilner knew all along what was going to happen IMO. That is what's wrong with our media.

Wilner delivered a story that kept his agenda driven sources happy. He knew the full story and never told it.

It's the plain-pleasure principle. Wilner delivered a story within the worldview of a large list of subscribers out West. In other words, his subscriber base has gone way up since this all started.

He has no integrity. It's all about making money at the cost of telling the truth. There are very few real journalists and media members left in our society today.

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  On 8/4/2023 at 11:27 PM, USC Traveler said:

You sure PA is an exception ?

PSU is a good school, but it's not in Penn's league (figuratively or literally.)

PSU is a much bigger school, so I guess it has more physical assets, but the value of a Wharton MBA vs a PSU MBA ?  Not close.

Without looking, I would assume Penn has a much bigger endowment also.

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Well Penn is private so I wasn't counting them.

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