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Realignment talk not going away

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Posted by Sandbagging Steve,

How many teams will be left when the dust settles in a few years? I think there's a way for all the teams to still have some involvement. I will explain that at the end of this list. Here's my list of the top 32 programs and a list if it goes to 48. There's some debate if it goes to 48, but not much debate if it stops at 32. I guess one could debate Arizona State, but that's about it. The top 32 at least come close to carrying their own weight. Everyone below that line is losing money for t

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41 minutes ago, Jabberwocky said:

 

Saw someone else say Wilner said (twitter I presume) said the judge was going to make sure nobody took advantage of anyone else.

The WSU president himself said publicly that there was no way WSU could get at current year's media money.  The by-laws were very specific.

 

 

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Aggy should abstain so the vote is 13-0 and then we can then brand it on their dog.

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10 minutes ago, bullet said:

Saw someone else say Wilner said (twitter I presume) said the judge was going to make sure nobody took advantage of anyone else.

The WSU president himself said publicly that there was no way WSU could get at current year's media money.  The by-laws were very specific.

 

 

Media money is set......post season payout.....not so much.

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On 11/10/2023 at 7:44 AM, bullet said:

Jester may have gotten better by the time you were there.  Breakfast was ok, not great.  I guess it was good enough we didn't finish our Friday night poker games until the cafeteria was open Saturday morning!  The only things I thought were good there they usually served all on the same day and usually on Sunday afternoons when not many students were there-steak, baked potatoes, Dutch crumb apple pie and a pineapple chunk, cheese chunk ambrosia dish.  There were a couple times my freshmen year there was mass food poisoning.  Fortunately I avoided it, but it hit about 20-30% of the students.

There was an article a few years back on the nutritionist the athletic department had hired to work in the athletic cafeteria.  They were getting a variety of healthy dishes.  Football players were saying they had been getting tired of steak all the time.  It was a little different than the typical student's cafeterias!

I imagine all these P5 programs have nutritionists working on diets specific for each sport.  The costs of running a program keep going up.

 

I was on a campus visit and was at jester.  Got some food and as I was about to pay this guy swiped his card for me saying “oh no nobody should pay for this crap”

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https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/dolly-parton-joins-peyton-manning-at-tennessee-vs-georgia-sings-rocky-top/ar-AA1k9DLh

Dolly Parton sang Rocky Top at the Tennessee-Georgia game Saturday, escorted in by Peyton Manning.  After the horrible sound system where she couldn't hear or be heard and Georgia's 38-10 win, word is, Dolly is entering the transfer portal.

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https://sports.yahoo.com/is-college-athletics-headed-for-the-great-split-we-need-to-recreate-or-relaunch-the-ncaa-160523061.html

The divorce of the P4 and NCAA is on the horizon.  Or at least the divorce of the major schools from most of Division I or from FBS or something else...

"Last Friday, a day before his university hosted Michigan in a Big Ten football game in College Park, Maryland athletic director Damon Evans sat before a group of college athletic stakeholders inside a conference room at the Marriott Marquis giving a direct, at times blunt, and sometimes jarring assessment of college sports and its future.

A sitting Big Ten AD vocalized publicly what’s been privately whispered for months: Within five years — and most say much sooner — the Power Five conference schools will operate from under a new governance structure that features an athlete revenue-sharing model, a shift often described by many within the industry as “The Great Split.”

“I do believe five years from now that we will be at a point where we are sharing revenue with student-athletes,” Evans told leaders of the Knight Commission, a group of mostly former and current college athletic administrators promoting educational reforms in college sports.

“To think we are not going to be sharing some of those revenues… we are going to be there. It would not surprise me to see some sort of different type of governance structure in place that separates the A5 out from the current structure.”

The Great Split is no longer a far-fetched idea or a long-shot theory. It is instead a looming reality in light of legal challenges facing college athletics, most notably the costly House antitrust case against the NCAA and the power conferences.

The case, seeking as much as $3 billion in retroactive name, image and likeness (NIL) and broadcasting revenue payments, is the latest lawsuit expected to chip away at the NCAA’s bedrock of amateurism. The case will, undoubtedly, force the organization to distribute more revenue to athletes like those legal losses before it (think: cost-of-attendance payments in 2015 and Alston academic-related stipends in 2021)....

 

“There are a number of models being created,” he continued. “Some I’ve been sworn to secrecy on. I sat in a room and listened to a model. There is no end to the models, the next iteration and what it might look like.”

After the meeting, White spoke more to Yahoo Sports about the models, some of which would have the power conference schools “leave and take their resources with them,” he said. That’s something he believes will negatively impact college athletics’ broad-based, Olympic sport system...."

 

 

 

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https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-oregon-state-washington-state-finalizing-scheduling-alliance-with-mountain-west-conference-180632163.html

Pac 2 not going away just yet.  OSU/WSU about to finalize a scheduling alliance with the MWC, paying them $14 million to drop to 7 conference games and schedule one with OSU/WSU.  Because they keep existing ooc games, Washington St. will play 8 MWC games next year while MWC members will only play 7!

Seems like a lot of trouble to go through just to pretend to be in a power conference.  They should have been talking to people instead of suing.  Don't think anyone would begrudge them power CFP money for 2 years.  And at least from public statements, it seems like the dispute with the 10 Pac is current year revenues, which the WSU president previously said HAD to be distributed ratably.

 

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1 hour ago, TKthunder2 said:

Yeah they should call themselves the Wildcats, Cougars, Bears, Bulldogs or Tigers. We could always use more of those in FBS football.

Well if they changed to the Owls, they might have a shot at the AAC!

BTW, CUSA made the announcement official.  Delaware joins in 2025.

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Jabberwocky

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2 hours ago, bullet said:

https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-oregon-state-washington-state-finalizing-scheduling-alliance-with-mountain-west-conference-180632163.html

Pac 2 not going away just yet.  OSU/WSU about to finalize a scheduling alliance with the MWC, paying them $14 million to drop to 7 conference games and schedule one with OSU/WSU.  Because they keep existing ooc games, Washington St. will play 8 MWC games next year while MWC members will only play 7!

Seems like a lot of trouble to go through just to pretend to be in a power conference.  They should have been talking to people instead of suing.  Don't think anyone would begrudge them power CFP money for 2 years.  And at least from public statements, it seems like the dispute with the 10 Pac is current year revenues, which the WSU president previously said HAD to be distributed ratably.

 

This is a message delivered directly from the MWC Commissioner, and is somewhat distorted.

According to most OSU people, the schedule is being finalized with as many as 4 or 5 MWC teams on it. While the MWC has most likely agreed to some sort of scheduling agreement with the Pac 2, I do not think it will be for 7 games for each team in the Pac 2. The commissioner is probably trying to massage the messaging of the terms of the agreement so that it is acceptable to the members of the MWC. We will see soon though. OSU is hiring Trent Bray to be their HC today, and then they were planning on releasing a schedule tomorrow or the day after.

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https://themw.com/news/2023/12/01/mountain-west-announces-football-scheduling-agreement-with-oregon-state-and-washington-state/

 

MWC/OSU/WSU scheduling agreement is official.  They are apparently also discussing other sports.  Washington St. will play 8 games against MWC schools next year, more than any MWC member!

Its a one year deal for now.

 

 

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On 12/1/2023 at 5:10 PM, bullet said:

https://themw.com/news/2023/12/01/mountain-west-announces-football-scheduling-agreement-with-oregon-state-and-washington-state/

 

MWC/OSU/WSU scheduling agreement is official.  They are apparently also discussing other sports.  Washington St. will play 8 games against MWC schools next year, more than any MWC member!

Its a one year deal for now.

 

 

So do they play in the MW championship game too or are they effectively Notre Dame / ACC?

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On 12/3/2023 at 11:53 AM, mdmost said:

Kinda feels like shit is about to heat up again for FSU. 

Yep. Undefeated ACC being treated like undefeated AAC. That’s not going to make FSU feel like they’re good staying put. 
 
Plus, Boo Corrigan was the ringmaster of this circus, and he is an AD at an ACC school. 

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I thought I'd take a look at the new college football landscape for 2024 using the latest Sagarin ratings to get a better picture of where the conferences stand. These ratings obviously aren't perfect and don't necessarily apply to how these teams will perform next year, but it's the best way I could think of to sort it out.

Adding in the color shading and grade scores to help make quick glance judgments:

  • It's obvious that the SEC will stand head and shoulders above the rest with very little dead weight (looking at you Mississippi State and Vanderbilt).
  • It also demonstrates just how top-heavy the new B1G will continue to be. The new West Coast additions certainly help their overall score but do nothing to alleviate the disparity between the top and the bottom. 
  • Right now, the Big 12 actually has a higher median and a not-too-far-behind average than the B1G, it just doesn't have any A-schools, but KState was close this year. Really, what that new conference lacks are the marquee programs (no great epiphany), but I think the big state, four corner schools could eventually influence public perception somewhat with some success. Still, there are no historical champions in this conference.
  • ACC is going to be in a world of hurt if FSU and Clemson eventually bolt for the SEC to round out the conference. In my opinion, the best the ACC could do for survival is to somehow get Notre Dame on board as a full conference member (no shit). They've clearly left a spot for them to do that, and judging by the new CFP format, Notre Dame could be left out of the playoffs more often than not.
  • I'm guessing the scheduling agreement for the Pac2 and the MWC becomes permanent once the legal wrangling gets resolved. Using these ratings, the MWC is already the clear 5th-placed conference, and adding those schools bumps the conference's grades up a bit.

This whole exercise was really for my own benefit, but I thought I'd share.

image.thumb.png.3440d458812d3393a360dd0ec2dc4194.png

 

image.thumb.png.fe95c9f74d1bd815071438798a8e1abb.png

Edited by bolverk
Fucked up the order of Oregon & Ohio State but I'm leaving it as is.
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On 12/3/2023 at 12:57 PM, mdmost said:

Sure but one spot and that's it. SEC and Big 10 will get 3-4 each year. 

I calculated a 6/6 model playoff from 1998-2023.  Roughly it came out to 4 SEC teams, 3 Big 10 teams, 4 between the ACC/Big12 and Notre Dame and 1 other.  Obviously the new lineups and schedules and move to 5/7 w/o a Pac would have an impact, but with that caveat, here's how the 2024 conference lineups fared over those 26 years:

SEC   103 teams, 3.96 per year

Big 10 88 teams, 3.38 per year

ACC 49 teams, 1.88 per year

Big 12 46 teams, 1.77 per year

Notre Dame 9, 0.35 per year

MWC 9, 0.35 per year

2 Pac 2, 0.08 per year

AAC 2, 0.08 per year

MAC 2, 0.08 per year

CUSA 1, 0.04 per year

Sun Belt 1, 0.04 per year

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https://abcnews.go.com/Sports/wireStory/ncaa-president-charlie-baker-calls-new-tier-division-105388728

 

NCAA president proposes new Division I tier where schools can pay athletes:

 

Quote

NCAA president proposes new Division I tier where schools can pay athletes

The student athletes would be paid directly through a trust fund.

ByRALPH D. RUSSO AP college sports writer
December 5, 2023, 9:36 AM

 

LAS VEGAS -- NCAA President Charlie Baker is asking members to make one of the most dramatic shifts in the history of college sports by allowing highly resourced schools to pay some of their athletes.

In a letter sent to more than 350 Division I schools Tuesday, Baker said he wants the association to create a new tier of NCAA Division I sports where schools would be required to offer at least half their athletes a payment of at least $30,000 per year through a trust fund.

Baker also proposed allowing all Division I schools to offer unlimited educational benefits and enter into name, image and likeness licensing deals with athletes.

He said the disparity in resources between the wealthiest schools in the top tier of Division I called the Football Bowl Subdivision and other D-I members — along with the hundreds of Division II and III schools — is creating “a new series of challenges.”

“The challenges are competitive as well as financial and are complicated further by the intersection of name, image and likeness opportunities for student-athletes and the arrival of the Transfer Portal,” wrote Baker, the former Massachusetts governor who took over at the NCAA in March.

 

Baker is scheduled to speak Wednesday at the Sports Business Journal's Intercollegiate Athletic Forum in Las Vegas.

Division I is currently divided for football into the FBS, which has 133 schools, and FCS (Football Championship Subdivision).

Baker's proposal is aimed at creating a new subdivision, covering all sports, where the richest athletic departments in the so-called Power Five conferences — the Big Ten, Southeastern Conference, Big 12, Atlantic Coast Conference and Pac-12 — can operate differently than the rest, while still competing with the rest of Division I.

Conference realignment starting in 2024 will move the Pac-12 out of that group.

The proposed shift would not require all members of a conference to be part of the new subdivision. Schools would be allowed to make that determination individually.

 

Baker noted athletic budgets in Division I range from $5 million and $250 million annually, with 59 schools spending over $100 million annually and another 32 spending over $50 million. He said 259 Division I schools, however, spend less than $50 million on their athletic programs.

Baker said the difference in the way schools that participate in revenue-generating college sports such as major college football and basketball operate and the vast majority of college sports is complicating attempts to modernize the entire enterprise.

“The contextual environment is equally challenging, as the courts and other public entities continue to debate reform measures that in many cases would seriously damage parts or all of college athletics,” he wrote.

Mountain West Commissioner Gloria Nevarez said a during the Sports Business Journal's Intercollegiate Sports Forum that subdivision can be a trigger word in the NCAA, stoking worries some schools will be shut out of championship events or lose out on revenue. Nevarez didn't read Baker's proposal that way.

“When I read it ... it talked about space to make governance,” she said.

 

Baker and college sports leaders have been pleading with Congress to help the NCAA with a federal law to regulate the way athletes can be paid for NIL deals.

“I am 100% supportive of your efforts. Intercollegiate Athletics needs the proactive and forward thinking you are providing,” Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith said in a post on social media platform X.

Smith oversees one of the largest athletic departments in the country with operating expenses of above $225 million annually.

Former Southern California and NFL star Reggie Bush called schools paying athletes, "Long overdue.”

Bush, who was being inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame on Tuesday night in Las Vegas, was the focus of an NCAA impermissible benefits infractions case during his USC career that resulted in the vacation of a national title for the Trojans and Bush's 2005 Heisman Trophy victory.

 

Baker's letter is an aggressive first step toward a major shift for the NCAA. To turn his vision into detailed legislation will take member feedback, lots of work by the Division I Council and final approval from the Division I Board of Directors.

There is no timetable to bring the proposal to fruition.

The NCAA is also facing a new round of legal threats that could force its members to share some of the billions in revenue generated by major college football and basketball, along with giving athletes employees status. One antitrust case working its way through federal court could cost the NCAA billions in damages.

Baker called on NCAA member schools to create a new framework to make what he called “fundamental changes.”

“First, we should make it possible for all Division I colleges and universities to offer student-athletes any level of enhanced educational benefits they deem appropriate. Second, rules should change for any Division I school, at their choice, to enter into name, image and likeness licensing opportunities with their student-athletes,” he wrote. “These two changes will enhance the financial opportunities available to all Division I student-athletes.”

Currently, schools are allowed — though not required — to provide athletes $5,980 per year in educational benefits under NCAA rules.

Baker said the changes would help level the playing field between men's and women's athletics by forcing schools to abide by gender equity regulations as they invest.

He said schools in a new tier of Division I should be allowed, while staying compliant with Title IX, to “invest at least $30,000 per year into an enhanced educational trust fund for at least half of the institution’s eligible student-athletes.”

A new D-I subdivision should also allow members to create unique rules regarding “scholarship commitment and roster size, recruitment, transfers or NIL,” he said.

Mid-American Conference Commissioner Jon Steinbrecher said Baker’s proposal merely defines what already exists: The power conference schools have separated themselves financially, already provide greater benefits to athletes and have some autonomy in the NCAA legislative process.

“I think probably a lot of people are saying this is the precursor of the great breakaway (of power conferences from the NCAA),” Steinbrecher said. “I would suggest to you it’s exactly the opposite. It’s taking the pressure valve off.”

 

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On 12/5/2023 at 6:55 PM, thunderlounge said:

https://abcnews.go.com/Sports/wireStory/ncaa-president-charlie-baker-calls-new-tier-division-105388728

 

NCAA president proposes new Division I tier where schools can pay athletes:

 

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/how-will-we-pay-for-this--college-leaders-react-to-ncaas-new-subdivision-proposal-165436131.html

Dellenger talked to some movers and shakers on their reaction.

"...While plenty of questions go unanswered about the model, Baker answered a few during his time on the dais Wednesday. In the most important reveal, the NCAA needs congressional assistance to make his proposal work.

Baker is asking for a “little” antitrust exemption as well as protection from college athletes being deemed employees. Why drop his proposal now without congressional legislation needed to codify such?

Maybe it’s a way to show Congress how serious the NCAA is to change. Or maybe Congress is well on its way to passing that legislation.

“Does he know something we don’t?” asks one athletic director. “If not, we are going to get sued again.”

To be sure, the congressional wheels are turning. Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Cory Booker (D-NJ) and their staffs are making progress on federal legislation, U.S. Senate aides tell Yahoo Sports. There seems to be a compromise on at least one important subject: addressing employment. Discussion continues on granting the association at least a narrow legal protection...."

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"...The most important questions for fans: Who’s in The Club? Membership in the new division is murky. How many can afford it? That number is probably 30-50 universities, industry experts contend. How many will afford it? Maybe that number is higher, as programs scratch to avoid being left out.

Twice during his speaking engagement Wednesday, Baker mentioned 100 universities. FBS is at 133. The Power Four is at 69.

“Most of the schools in the autonomy conferences will feel that’s something they want to do,” Livingstone said...."

Interesting that the Baylor president is considered one of the more powerful people.

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Hurtlocker

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On 12/4/2023 at 5:47 PM, bolverk said:

I thought I'd take a look at the new college football landscape for 2024 using the latest Sagarin ratings to get a better picture of where the conferences stand. These ratings obviously aren't perfect and don't necessarily apply to how these teams will perform next year, but it's the best way I could think of to sort it out.

Adding in the color shading and grade scores to help make quick glance judgments:

  • It's obvious that the SEC will stand head and shoulders above the rest with very little dead weight (looking at you Mississippi State and Vanderbilt).
  • It also demonstrates just how top-heavy the new B1G will continue to be. The new West Coast additions certainly help their overall score but do nothing to alleviate the disparity between the top and the bottom. 
  • Right now, the Big 12 actually has a higher median and a not-too-far-behind average than the B1G, it just doesn't have any A-schools, but KState was close this year. Really, what that new conference lacks are the marquee programs (no great epiphany), but I think the big state, four corner schools could eventually influence public perception somewhat with some success. Still, there are no historical champions in this conference.
  • ACC is going to be in a world of hurt if FSU and Clemson eventually bolt for the SEC to round out the conference. In my opinion, the best the ACC could do for survival is to somehow get Notre Dame on board as a full conference member (no shit). They've clearly left a spot for them to do that, and judging by the new CFP format, Notre Dame could be left out of the playoffs more often than not.
  • I'm guessing the scheduling agreement for the Pac2 and the MWC becomes permanent once the legal wrangling gets resolved. Using these ratings, the MWC is already the clear 5th-placed conference, and adding those schools bumps the conference's grades up a bit.

This whole exercise was really for my own benefit, but I thought I'd share.

image.thumb.png.3440d458812d3393a360dd0ec2dc4194.png

 

image.thumb.png.fe95c9f74d1bd815071438798a8e1abb.png

This is great man, I'd love to see it again in a year.    My suspicion what we see now is a bit of overvaluation on the conferences we see acquiring teams and we'll see a decrease in valuation somewhere to even it out.    For instance, Texas leading the SEC is off a rank derived from being Bama, yes, but also Big 12 schools.   If we assume the same projected power, and why wouldn't we, that decrease will not be felt in the B12 anymore, but instead against A&M, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Florida, and Kentucky, who will now own those losses.    Same holds true for Oregon.   They're going to get their wins, but now they have to beat Michigan, Ohio State and Washington next year to replicate those results.   If they win out, either Michigan or Ohio State will have two losses at the end of the year, diminishing their score.   If the SEC/B1G were pushing only for the post season, they'd make sure their big brands only play one big brand a year, increasing the amount of 1 loss powers, but TV execs won't allow that to happen.   Fox will easily screw ESPN on the post season to increase the value of their in-season schedule.  

The same was shown in the B12 this year.   Cinci, Houston, BYU, and UCF likely had much higher scores last year, especially Cinci, but then met the meat grinder of P5 scheduling.    You simply cannot have someone go up, without something else going down.   Next year for the B12 they'll have someone make the next jump, because there will be 16 less losses in conference play with Texas/BlowU moving out.     I agree fully with you that I expect Arizona and Utah to immediately step into top quad contenders, but the list of who could make it there with them includes KState, ISU, OkSt, WVU, Kansas, TCU, Colorado.   They'll either suffer from the Pac 12 issue of no one ever getting through unscathed, or a couple are going to end up looking like power houses.      To your point, no historical champs, but I think their ceiling looks higher than the ACC's with historic champs.

I've been saying it for a year, and @bullet sort of just proved it.   In the new 12 post season, I expect to see 3.5 teams a year each between the B1G/SEC (absorbing the Pac's old spot), 2/each for the B12/ACC, and one school from the PacMWC/SunBelt/AAC (likely in that order) each year with ND stealing one of the ACC's spots when good, since they can't ever receive a bye.    I also expect to see the B12/ACC get more wins than most expect in that first round, which will give a huge bonus to whatever school can do it consistently.  Semi's in, I expect historic power to dominate.

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Hurtlocker

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Late to the party on this NIL change of stance by the NCAA, but it is a major game changer.   Not so much in that kids can get paid, but it is the line in the sand of our next division in college sports.   They're trying to say it won't be, but there is no way you can have one set of schools openly paying players and another not yet consider them competitive.  As soon as this gets voted on, it will be the FCS, the FBS, and the CFP.   This CFP then can start implementing its own rules and regulations, require things that the NCAA cannot to everyone, including mandating participation to investigation and enforcement.  (Currently the NCAA receives none of the money from football, but has to handle all of the investigation, with no one being required to participate.   Expect that to change.) Some schools can make this change without batting a financial eye, some will do it to stay in the limelight.  Many will say "fuck that".    It is the beginning of the end for the current FBS structure.

I've seen it estimated that for a school to comfortably adopt the new measures, they'd need to have an athletic department that has revenues of over $100m.    As of the last reporting cycle, that includes 49 public programs, with Ohio State at the top and KState at 49 (likely more with privates like ND, USC, Miami, TCU, Baylor, NW and Vandy.   All of the schools in that 49 are Power 5:

$200M+:  Ohio State, Texas, Bama, Michigan, Georgia

$150m - $199M:  LSU, A&M, Florida, Penn State, Oklahoma, Auburn, Michigan State, Indiana, Virginia (usually around $110m, had a huge donation), FSU, Kentucky, Clemson, Tennessee, Oregon, Arkansas, Iowa, Wisconsin

$125m - $149M: Louisville, Illinois, Washington, Nebraska, South Carolina, Missouri, Minnesota, Ole Miss

$100m - $124m: Arizona, UNC, ASU, Cal, Kansas, Utah, Purdue, VTech, ISU, MSU, TTech, Rutgers, Maryland, GTech, WVU, OkSt, UCLA, NCState, KState

P5 Close, but not quite: Colorado ($94), UCF($89), WSU ($85), Oregon State ($83), Cinci ($83), Houston ($78)

WSU/Beavers will see a reduction in revenue in 2-3 years, hard to see where they can keep up the drive.   Colorado hasn't shown the Prime bump in these numbers, would expect them to be well over $100m by next report.   UCF/Cinci/Houston/BYU are all getting $10m bumps even before they reach full payment in the Big12.

With the privates, that puts about 70 teams in the NIL/CFB universe, most of whom already push NIL.   But now they'll be able to set their own rules away from everyone else and that's huge.

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On the FSU front, from the Tampa Bay Times:

We ran an FSU football playoff conspiracy theory by a sports businessman

You don’t have to look hard to find conspiracy theories about why 13-0 Florida State was left out of the College Football Playoff in favor of 12-1 Alabama.

The playoff selection committee’s stated reason, of course, was that the Seminoles were a different team without star quarterback Jordan Travis. FSU’s weaker schedule didn’t help.

Message boards and social media have other ideas — namely that ESPN was pulling the strings on the selection committee. The playoff’s broadcaster either wanted to protect another partner (the SEC) by picking the Crimson Tide or wanted Alabama to boost TV ratings.

There’s no evidence to support the arguments, unless you think the order of helmets behind analyst Kirk Herbstreit was a sign. ESPN partners with the ACC, too, and committee chairperson Boo Corrigan is the athletic director at an ACC school (North Carolina State) that would have made more money with FSU, not Alabama, in the field.

Regardless, we ran the root of the theory by Ray Katz. He’s the chief operating officer of the media rights and business firm Collegiate Sports Management Group and teaches at Columbia University’s sports management program.

Would Alabama be a larger draw for casual fans in a way that FSU wouldn’t be?

“I’m not going to say Florida State would not be,” Katz said. “I think it’s an incredibly compelling story.”

FSU would have added a different name-brand program to the field. Alabama has only missed the playoff twice in 10 years; FSU has qualified for the semifinals once (2014). The Seminoles overcame Travis’ injury to win the ACC as Mike Norvell’s four-year rebuilding process culminated with a perfect season. It’s easy to envision that story attracting viewers.

But the data on Alabama’s dominance is overwhelming.

The Crimson Tide averaged 7.3 million viewers over the 11 games tracked by Sports Media Watch. The dozen FSU games with available data averaged 4.2 million viewers.

“Every week that Alabama is on any kind of reasonable TV platform, they kick butt,” Katz said. “That’s just the reality of the situation…

“I think it’s a Nick Saban effect to some extent. He stirs up the pot. You either tune in to watch him win, or you tune in to watch him lose. That’s just a fact.”

That fact has attracted the interest of politicians.

State Sen. Corey Simon, the former FSU star defensive lineman, wrote on social media after last week’s decision that ESPN has a “vested interest in the SEC participating in the CFP.” U.S. Sen. Rick Scott has asked to see any correspondence between committee members and ESPN and/or the SEC. Gov. Ron DeSantis has set aside $1 million in his proposed budget for possible litigation.

Katz said he has a “real problem with all these popularity contests and prognostications.” How big of an underdog FSU would be in the playoff shouldn’t be a factor.

But if Katz had to buy into an alternative explanation, his wouldn’t involve TV ratings.

“My conspiracy theory is — if there was a conspiracy theory — it’s about them defending why they are going to 12 teams,” Katz said.

When the field expands from four teams to 12 next year, teams that play in the first round and keep winning will play two more games than they would now. The longer season adds more wear and tear on players’ bodies and will cut into students’ class or free time, depending on the schedules.

Katz said an exclusion like undefeated FSU provides a reason to justify expansion; the Seminoles would have made a 12-team field.

“It defends that,” Katz said.

 

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