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Realignment talk not going away


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7 hours ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

I don't doubt this but you're citing this stat about the final minute - what is the source on that?  Asking honestly, not as a gotcha.  Yes, I did google first, and most of what I found was ratings in the aggregate, not minute-by-minute.

I didn’t cite an actual statistic but many times you’ll hear/read when the media will says “2 million people across the world watched the buzzer beater last night”, only to find that when the rating are released it’s calculated with less than a quarter of that.

As far as I’m aware the minute by minute  Nielsen ratings are not publicly available. But close games and big names draws viewers, I’m sure I could source that if you’d like.

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49 minutes ago, 'stache said:

 

First, he didn't mention TV ratings, he's talking about competitiveness, and is so very wrong. A lower level conference tournament champion is more intriguing than the 8th or 9th place finisher in the Big 12/ACC/SEC. Also, the tuning in late only if it's an upset alert would be true regardless. The 1/16, 2/15, 3/14, etc. games are usually blowouts, so tuning in late only for upset alert would be true either way, doesn't make any difference if the lower seed is conference champ Stetson or 9th place Kansas State. An upset would be just as rare, but there is a ton of attention when its an Oral Roberts or St. Peters. Regardless, it was a dumb thing to say, especially when the SEC did so poorly in the first round. If you want to argue that there are too many D1 conferences, I'm open to that discussion, but I doubt there is a viable solution, especially if it requires excluding certain conferences. 

This is where we disagree completely. Last year Oklahoma (who missed the tournament) literally beat Alabama (who was a #1 seed). The tournament would have been better if you could include more at large teams and fewer AQs.

Based on Bullet’s list above this would/should be an easy compromise.

Take all 10 FBS conference and add in any conference who has made a Sweet16 in the last 40 years: Big East, A10, WCC, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, Patriot, Southern, and the Summit League.

That would free up 11 AQ spots. If you get rid of the First Four that removes 4 teams which means we could go back to the basic 64 team setup and still have 7 additional at large bids for Oklahoma, Indiana St, Seton Hall, Pitt, St John’s, Providence, and Wake Forest.

Yes, I think that would have been a better product and the average fan wouldn’t know any better since there would still be more than enough non traditional brands in the tournament to satisfy their Cinderella dreams.

I’m very knowledgeable on most conferences in Division I and was only able to name 8 of the 11 conferences that were left out without looking it up. We have too many conferences in Division I which is the problem here.

Edited by TKthunder2
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1 hour ago, bullet said:

I really don't think there will be any trimming.  Now maybe at some point there is Prestige Worldwide with 16-20 schools.  But that league will need other weaker leagues around to pad the ooc win totals.

They don’t have to share as much money with ooc schools as with dead weight schools. So Fowler is not saying other leagues won’t be around just that the days of the schools that don’t bring eyeballs getting a free ride are over.

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15 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

This is where we disagree completely. Last year Oklahoma (who missed the tournament) literally beat Alabama (who was a #1 seed). The tournament would have been better if you could include more at large teams and fewer AQs.

Based on Bullet’s list above this would/should be an easy compromise.

Take all 10 FBS conference and add in any conference who has made a Sweet16 in the last 40 years: Big East, A10, WCC, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, Patriot, Southern, and the Summit League.

That would free up 11 AQ spots. If you get rid of the First Four that removes 4 teams which means we could go back to the basic 64 team setup and still have 7 additional at large bids for Oklahoma, Indiana St, Seton Hall, Pitt, St John’s, Providence, and Wake Forest.

Yes, I think that would have been a better product and the average fan wouldn’t know any better since there would still be more than enough non traditional brands in the tournament to satisfy their Cinderella dreams.

I’m very knowledgeable on most conferences in Division I and was only able to name 8 of the 11 conferences that were left out without looking it up. We have too many conferences in Division I which is the problem here.

Princeton as a 15 seed beating Arizona and making the sweet sixteen last year is way more interesting than seeing 8th place OU as an 11 seed even if they made the sweet sixteen, which is doubtful. The intrigue with the small conference champs is that they haven’t played many P5 teams and if they did it was early before their conference season. Nobody really knows how good they are against better competition. The tourney gives them that chance and every year we see one make a run. OU might have upset Alabama early but who cares, they showed in a Big 12 season that they were mediocre as hell.

In 2018 OSU swept KU (who went on to the final four) in the regular season and was the first team out. I wasn’t mad at the aq’s I was mad at the selection committee, but we were only slightly above average anyway. That was the year 16 seed UMBC beat 1 seed UVA and 11 seed Loyola Chicago made the final four. Way more interesting than seeing OSU display its mediocrity as a 10 seed. 

Edited by 'stache
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This is a ratings vs. nostalgia fight.  Neither #15 Princeton or #9 OU has any shot of winning the bracket, and only the slimmest of shots making the FF.  So the question becomes what's more interesting (nostalgia) vs. what will people actually watch (ratings).  For me the mid-major/small team is more interesting than the 9th team in the Big12 or 7th team in the SEC making it in, even though the ratings disagree because those brands pull along their viewership.

Case in point, I actually flipped over to the Oakland vs. NCState game in multi-view and during halftime of the Texas game because I was interested...but to @TKthunder2 point it was in the final 5 minutes and OT.

I'd argue the "magic" March Madness is the broad inclusiveness and the feeling of "everyone has a shot" (even if they really don't).  Start dialing down the small teams for the 8th place SEC team, etc and you lose that magic at the alter of the dollar.  It will happen, because money, and people like me will complain, because nostalgia.  But railing against it is railing against inevitibilitiy.

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Oakland plays in the Horizon League

Princeton plays in the Ivy League

Both conferences would not be in the bottom 10 that get cut.

Why do we have divisions? DII schools can beat DI schools (Chaminade says hello). It doesn’t cost a lot to field a basketball team. What does the number/amount of scholarships, size of arena, or number of other sports matter when you can only have 5 guys on the hardwood at any given time. Let’s have one big tournament for all divisions.

We have divided before and we WILL divide again. Fighting for a conference to keep its bid because Fairleigh Dickinson pulled off an upset that one time is ridiculous. 99% of people reading this don’t have any idea what conference they play in or who else is in their conference without pulling it up on Wikipedia. If a conference falls out of DI and nobody notices does it really matter? There will still be plenty of Cinderellas around AND the games will be better and more profitable.

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21 hours ago, CustersDoctor said:

So if the B1G takes UNC & Virg. And the SEC takes FSU & Clemson. Then the Big12 cherry picks the ACC. So here's a first look at the final three conferences.

 

Screenshot_20240326_135205_Drive.jpg

Something like this seems really likely to be the final result.  The football playoff model will look similar to the way it currently does (SEC and Big 10 will retain the bigger payouts) and they'll probably fuck up March Madness to make it heavily (like 80%+) out of these 3.

1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Nah....the Big 2 will force them into one of them.

If the Big 10 just added Stanford they might finally join willingly.

Edited by Al_4_ISU
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1 minute ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Something like this seems really likely to be the final result.  The football playoff model will look similar to the way it currently does (SEC and Big 10 will retain the bigger payouts) and they'll probably fuck up March Madness to make it heavily (like 80%+) out of these 3.

If the Big 10 just added Stanford they might finally join willingly.

Stanford needs to start caring about football and mens basketball IMO or they may be on the outside looking in.

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1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Stanford needs to start caring about football and mens basketball IMO or they may be on the outside looking in.

And that's kind of the rub with them at the end of the day.  They have a history of excellence, but so few people give an active shit about Stanford athletics.

I understand why the Big 10 wouldn't want them, I'm just making the comment that by having that game in the fold of the Big 10, there would be almost nothing left in terms of opponents they care about for the Domers not to come willingly.

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Stanford's admission standards makes it difficult for them to be consistently good at football. Cal is in a similar position since their standards were increased after they had a low graduation rate for a couple of years. 

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On 3/24/2024 at 2:41 PM, Josef Pwag said:

That TJ Altimore guy was arguably the most vocal presence on Twitter that was insisting that the Pac was fine and would still come through with a homerun of a TV deal. The data in this chart could be 100% accurate, I don't know, but the guy is recklessly dishonest. 

I saw this Altimore video on Reddit. If you need a good laugh on a Friday:

 

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2 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Notre Dame, Stanford, and Cal should start their own "Independence Conference" to simply bask in the smell of their own farts. Hell, Utah can join them if they're gonna continue bitching.

Nah.  I want Utah to hang around long enough to get their shit shoved up their asses in one of the numerous Plains backwaters they're so opposed to associating with.

Edited by Al_4_ISU
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On 3/26/2024 at 2:18 PM, CustersDoctor said:

So if the B1G takes UNC & Virg. And the SEC takes FSU & Clemson. Then the Big12 cherry picks the ACC. So here's a first look at the final three conferences.

 

Screenshot_20240326_135205_Drive.jpg

This is dumb as hell.  How about the SEC figures out how to schedule the teams they have before we make super conferences?  The idiots in charge of the conference had A&M play Georgia and Florida what once the whole time they have been there?  I have little faith they will actually figure out a new regular rotating schedule with the teams they have anytime soon.  

Edited by Hook1997
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2 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

This is dumb as hell.  How about the SEC figures out how to schedule the teams they have before we make super conferences?  The idiots in charge of the conference had A&M play Georgia and Florida what once the whole time they have been there?  I have little faith they will actually figure out a new regular rotating schedule with the teams they have anytime soon.  

wat?  Gators have played  at least Aggie 4 times.    I think gawga has dodged them.  SEC scheduling shenanigans... you will see

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6 minutes ago, locodos said:

wat?  Gators have played  at least Aggie 4 times.    I think gawga has dodged them.  SEC scheduling shenanigans... you will see

There’s been nothing consistent about their scheduling at all is my point.  It’s like the non division games were decided by rolling dice every year and for the next two years they are like let’s just do the same thing back to back.  Everyone is talking expansion, pods, ect, they have no freaking clue what to do already. I don’t understand how they haven’t figured out anything actually consistent for years.   

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1 hour ago, Hook1997 said:

There’s been nothing consistent about their scheduling at all is my point.  It’s like the non division games were decided by rolling dice every year and for the next two years they are like let’s just do the same thing back to back.  Everyone is talking expansion, pods, ect, they have no freaking clue what to do already. I don’t understand how they haven’t figured out anything actually consistent for years.   

SEC scheduling has always been wonky.  As I recall, back before the expansion to 12 teams in 1991/92, there were years when LSU might only play 6 or 7 of the other 9 teams.

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On 3/29/2024 at 9:45 AM, John80 said:

Stanford's admission standards makes it difficult for them to be consistently good at football.

Stanford's past failure to commit to a strong football team has made it difficult. They've always been able to recruit o-linemen and tight ends and qbs and when they've committed to making a stop at Stanford as a set to the NFL they've been fine.  They're complacent about coaching and remain loyal to a fault to mediocrity in coaching.

Stanford's the best all around university in the US.  They have very fluid admission standards, and they can pump their overall SAT average pretty easily.

They fucked themselves by being shitty recently in football and basketball and not doing anything about it.

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13 hours ago, Hook1997 said:

There’s been nothing consistent about their scheduling at all is my point.  It’s like the non division games were decided by rolling dice every year and for the next two years they are like let’s just do the same thing back to back.  Everyone is talking expansion, pods, ect, they have no freaking clue what to do already. I don’t understand how they haven’t figured out anything actually consistent for years.   

They actually had a rotation set. The problem is that we've had three bridge schedules in a short period of time (2012, 2013, 2020) and have two more coming up (2024, 2025) and for some reason, they seem to default to some of the same matchups each time.

For Florida, it means that they've taken away two games vs Auburn which is one of our oldest rivals, and they've added three games vs A&M.

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26 minutes ago, gatormarc said:

For Florida, it means that they've taken away two games vs Auburn which is one of our oldest rivals, and they've added three games vs A&M.

Correction, added A&M 4 times in those 5 seasons.

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23 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

SIAP...

"Every FBS school ranked by how attractive they'd be in conference realignment"

https://footballscoop.com/news/every-fbs-school-ranked-by-how-attractive-theyd-be-in-conference-realignment

 

PAC 12 really messed up by not killing the BIG 12. They could have taken TCU, TT, Oklahoma State and Kansas and easily survived.

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On 3/26/2024 at 12:18 PM, CustersDoctor said:

So if the B1G takes UNC & Virg. And the SEC takes FSU & Clemson. Then the Big12 cherry picks the ACC. So here's a first look at the final three conferences.

 

Screenshot_20240326_135205_Drive.jpg

So if someone was to take these 60 teams and make three 20 team conferences from scratch, but having rivalry and history information available as data to inform, how different would those conferences look?

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Maybe I'm old (which is true), but seems like Notre Dame would be on top. Any conference would kill to have them. I don't have an Xwitter account, so can't look at the methodology. But something like 1- ND,   2nd tier - Texas/Ohio St,  3rd tier - Bama/Mich, then others.  But obviously, all are extremely valuable.

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2 hours ago, TxEx84 said:

Maybe I'm old (which is true), but seems like Notre Dame would be on top. Any conference would kill to have them. I don't have an Xwitter account, so can't look at the methodology. But something like 1- ND,   2nd tier - Texas/Ohio St,  3rd tier - Bama/Mich, then others.  But obviously, all are extremely valuable.

I think some order of Florida, Texas, usc Notre dame and Ohio st would be I. The top five

 

 

think about how you would draft. What would you look for?  To me, location and recruiting base would be near the top 

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On 3/31/2024 at 9:32 AM, DanTheHorn said:

PAC 12 really messed up by not killing the BIG 12. They could have taken TCU, TT, Oklahoma State and Kansas and easily survived.

 

On 3/31/2024 at 11:41 AM, MAUFRAIS said:


The living would envy the dead.

It couldn't have worked out better for Tech, TCU, OkLite and Kansas.

Rough Timeline

1. July 2021 UT & OU announce their move to the SEC.

2. The "Left Behind" are in full panic mode. Calls made to the PAC12 offices are pretty much ignored.

3. Sept 2021 BYU. Cincy, UCF & UH get a conference invite. This somehow stabilizes the BIG12.

4. In May of 2022 the PAC12 Executive Board sends an email to all the member schools boasting that the new media rights deal is going to be $50,000,000+ a year. (BTW several of the schools started spending the money that they thought they were going to get. That's why the UA AD was recently fired.)

5. June 2022, USC & UCLA announce that they are leaving for the B1G. (This is where the SHTF)

6. Then the Comcast overcharge scandal hits. Each PAC12 school owes Comcast $4mill.

7. It is revealed that the PAC12 network office space and studio in San Francisco had cost $90mill during its first 12 years. This coupled with the fact Larry Scott and then Klownkoff were the President of the PAC12 Network and received a separate extra multi million dollar salary for running the network, left the network with only $13,000,000 a year to distribute to its 12 members.

8. Sept 2022. The PACX turns down a media right deal of about $35mill a year. They were sure they were still worth $50mill a year, even without USC & UCLA

9. Oct 2022. The BIGXII Finalizes its media rights deal for about $31mill a year.

10. The PACX is doomed, there aren't any suitors left and no time slots available. All they can get are streaming offers.

So when considering that the PAC12 was going to lose USC & UCLA. The PAC12 Network was a fraud. Klownkoff and the PACX executive committee way overestimated their conferences value and then the Comcast scam. The Big12 schools that weren't good enough for the PAC12, totally and completely dodged a bullet.

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University of Arizona President Robert Robbins will resign when his contract expires in 2026. "Robbins decision comes less than a year after the university discovered an accounting modeling error created a $241 million deficit in the university budget. Athletics have taken center stage in the scandal. The school gave the athletic department a $55million loan to survive the pandemic." The athletic department has ZERO chance of ever repaying that loan. Recently fired AD Dave Heeke was accused of "financial and operational mismanagement." Heeke and Robbins were so sure that the new media rights deal would be $50mill a year that they had already started spending the windfall.

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Full article:

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Inside the college football ‘Super League,’ one powerful group’s idea to fix a ‘dead’ system

One league overseeing college football’s highest level. No more conferences as we’ve known them. Playoff berths being decided solely on the field. Promotion and relegation for smaller schools. Players being paid directly. NIL and the transfer portal, managed.

A group of influential leaders wants to make all this happen soon — and they are pitching it as the best way forward for a sport they believe needs saving.

Several college presidents, Roger Goodell’s primary lieutenant at the NFL and some of sports’ top executives have devised a plan — dubbed by outsiders as a “Super League” — to completely transform college football, those involved in the group “College Sports Tomorrow” (CST) told The Athletic. Although the plan has drawn skepticism from within the sport’s current institutions, the people behind the ideas believe they must be implemented.

“The current model for governing and managing college athletics is dead,” Syracuse chancellor Kent Syverud told The Athletic during an interview.

West Virginia president Gordon Gee added, “We are in an existential crisis.”

Syverud and Gee are part of CST, a 20-person group which also includes the NFL’s No. 2 executive Brian Rolapp, Philadelphia 76ers owner David Blitzer and lead organizer Len Perna of TurnkeyZRG, the search firm that places nearly all the top conference commissioners, including recently the Big Ten’s Tony Petitti.

They are trying to implement a drastically new system that would replace the NCAA and the College Football Playoff and potentially provide a solution for the hurricane of current and future lawsuits aimed at the business of the sport, plus the NIL and transfer portal issues that, they believe, have put college athletics as a whole in peril.

The current CST outline would create a system that would have the top 70 programs — all members of the five former major conferences, plus Notre Dame and new ACC member SMU — as permanent members and encompass all 130-plus FBS universities.

The perpetual members would be in seven 10-team divisions, joined by an eighth division of teams that would be promoted from the second tier.

The 50-plus second-division teams would have the opportunity to compete their way into the upper division, creating a promotion system similar to the structure in European football leagues. The 70 permanent teams would never be in danger of moving down, while the second division would have the incentive of promotion and relegation.

The playoffs would not require a selection committee, as the eight division winners and eight wild cards from the top tier would go to the postseason. The wild-card spots would be determined by record and tiebreakers, much like the NFL.

CST borrows ideas from leagues like the NFL, Premier League and MLS to create a system that they believe would bring more television value and sustainability. Not coincidentally, some of its most influential members have direct ties to those leagues.

Thus far, the group is struggling to gain traction with the schools that would play in their proposed “Super League.” The ACC board of directors heard a presentation from the group in February. However, planned dinners with administrators from the Big Ten, SEC and Big 12 all were called off. Spokespersons for the Big Ten and SEC said commissioners Petitti and Greg Sankey, respectively, have not met with Perna’s group.

Leagues have been hesitant and canceled meetings so as not to upset their current broadcast partners, including ESPN and Fox, according to one executive briefed on the commissioners’ thoughts.

Chief among the obstacles this new venture faces are the billions of dollars in TV deals that all the top conferences have locked in with the major networks: ESPN/ABC, Fox, NBC and CBS. The FBS conferences recently signed off on a six-year, $7.8 billion extension with ESPN for the exclusive rights to the expanded College Football Playoff.

The Big Ten’s deals run through the 2029-30 season, the Big 12’s run through 2030-31 and the SEC’s exclusive deal with ESPN runs through 2033-34. One TV executive called the idea that there is a lot more untapped money in the market “naive.” One CST executive said that the major networks with existing deals would likely need to buy into the plan before it could go to the open market in the 2030s.

Universities would own a percentage of the league, a model derived from MLS where it was devised by former president Mark Abbott, who is involved with CST. Unlike the soccer league, the revenue distribution would not be an even split among all competitors, as top brands like Alabama and Notre Dame would receive more of the financial pie. CST believes there would be added value in negotiating TV deals as one entity and creating broadcast windows that make more sense, much like the NFL’s approach.

While the CST model would eliminate the longtime conference structure for football, it would create one entity to negotiate with a prospective union that would represent the players on NIL, transfer portal and salary structure rules. This embrace of collective bargaining could allow it to avoid the antitrust issues that have limited the NCAA’s ability to enforce its own rules.

“The only way to solve the problem is to have a solution that is legally defensible, politically acceptable, commercially prudent and is able to strike a partnership with student athletes in a way that’s really good for them,” Perna told The Athletic.

College administrators are particularly concerned about the House v. NCAA class-action suit in Northern California, seeking NIL revenue denied to athletes prior to 2021 rule changes. If the plaintiffs are successful, the NCAA and the power conferences could be on the hook for billions in damages. The House case is one of several potentially crippling federal antitrust suits related to athlete employment rights and NIL compensation.

“I really think conferences in the NCAA are at a very significant likelihood of going bankrupt in the near future because of the lawsuits, both the ones that are going to trial soon and those that will follow,” Syverud said.

Perna started on the project three years ago and is viewed as its figurehead. He is well-connected in college sports through his role at Turnkey.

According to two executives briefed on the proposal, one reason the FBS commissioners last month self-imposed a March 15 deadline to approve the six-year College Football Playoff extension was to stave off CST’s push. During The Athletic’s reporting, executives involved in college football were inquiring, “What do you know about the Perna/Rolapp group?” They conveyed alarm about what could be formulated, along with doubt as to why this group would be the one to solve the complex issues facing the NCAA.

While critics in media and college sports who have heard about CST have warned of private equity’s involvement, Perna insisted this is not a money-making venture for the individuals in his group. He said CST raised initial money to pay for fees incurred but declined to say how much. The plan is for the new format to create more revenue on the premise that there is more TV money to be generated in a model comparable to the NFL’s TV setup.

“We’ve been looking at something that’s large enough that it gives everybody a chance to compete, and that does translate into about 70 schools,” Syverud said. “That also creates content that’s more valuable so that it generates the resources to do more things that the university presidents think are important for college sports. It is not the case that the money to do what’s right for our college athletes in football is just going to emerge from nowhere. Somehow it has to be generated. That’s what we are trying to figure out, as well.”

Multiple prominent college leaders in recent months have spoken bluntly about a future in which schools directly pay their players. Private equity funding could provide schools an influx of capital to address those legal matters and competitively compensate their athletes, in return for a stake in the schools’ athletics business.

One top college football administrator claimed CST is trying to “buy college football.” CST countered that it is only trying to create a system for football that in turn would result in the finances needed for non-revenue-generating sports to survive and thrive. Under the plans, the non-football sports would stay in their current conference structure.

“Athletes need to be paid and are going to be paid,” Syverud said. “Most of the rules against paying athletes, including some of those that are still in place, are likely to fall in the courts. We’re going to need to sustain women’s sports, Olympic sports and we’re going to have to have competitive equity and some methods to have a labor structure that is sensible. For all that, I think you need a more centralized national college league.”

CST is not alone in trying to find solutions. The SEC and Big Ten, the two most powerful football conferences, have formed an advisory alliance focused on “a sustainable future of college sports,” as one clear example. At least one school, Florida State, has been actively exploring a private equity partnership of its own.

Rolapp’s involvement in CST has raised eyebrows. He was the mastermind of the NFL’s current $110 billion in TV deals and has been sought for top college commissioner jobs. While it is in the best interest of the NFL to have its feeder system of college football be strong, executives briefed on Rolapp’s role insist the league is not involved. Rolapp declined to comment.

CST leaders maintain their intentions are pure — and that they are in a hurry to get going. An avalanche of legal activity could dramatically increase the likelihood that their plan or something like it could take hold. Even prior to that day of potential foundational change, CST wants to lead from the front, not behind.

“Speed is our friend,” Gee said. “We don’t have a lot of time to waste.”

 

 

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8 hours ago, NoRagrets said:

Hate it. Big10 and SEC should start their own league. Thats about thirty teams. Perfect number for a league. 

I agree, but I think both leagues need to be at 24 teams each.

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