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Realignment talk not going away


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10 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

Many people think it will come to an extreme but I predict a more logical conclusion for all involved is to break up the ACC keep the current conference model then breakaway with the P3 conferences. You’ll have the B1G/SEC on the major network spots with a few B12 games sprinkled in but mainly filling up tier 2 cable. You keep the Big 12 around to not piss off the government too much as they have 5 states that wouldn’t be included otherwise (and the #2/3 public schools in 5 other states as well).

The Vandy and Northwesterns of the world will eventually be convinced to take a pay cut as the leagues shift to a performance/viewership payout model, as you can clearly see what happens if you piss off your money makers like USC and FSU, and being in the club at reduced shares is far better than being out of the club like WSU/OSU.

I see this as a breakaway for most major team sports: football, m/w basketball, baseball, softball, volleyball, w soccer; but I’m less sure about those with team and individual components like tennis, golf, t&f, cross country, swim/dive (as those might benefit from remaining with the NCAA and still competing with the Ivy League and Big West type schools) or more regional sports like m soccer, Hockey, LAX, FH (as those are not played significantly by this group of 60ish schools).

I think the walk-ons might be one of the biggest reasons to breakaway as it seems most of the big name teams want the walk-ons not to count against the total roster spots.

That argument is over.  There are no walk-ons at the big schools.  Everyone will be getting a scholarship and NIL money and, soon, directly paid.  That's part of the House settlement, not that they have to give scholarships to everyone, but the scholarship limits are gone.  Its roster limits.  100 for football.  Baseball I think was 39.  And they will get full scholarships in the P4, no longer partials.  Sankey has been talking about that for several years.

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https://www.wsj.com/sports/football/college-transfers-power-five-conferences-aee82375?st=b1p1yoiho3kwcr1&reflink=article_copyURL_share

Interesting data:

 

"...The impact of the transfer portal is striking: After eliminating those who graduated or departed for the NFL, a whopping 40% of the remaining players with all-conference honors switched to another program. The vast majority of them bolted to a team in the Power Four (the Atlantic Coast, Big 12, Big Ten and Southeastern conferences). Even when adding second- and third-team all-conference picks, 36% wound up transferring.

The data shows the extent to which the balance of power has shifted in college football. The smaller conferences have always had a disadvantage compared with their larger peers. Now, they have effectively become a farm system—developing talented players only to lose them to their wealthier competitors. Competing against the likes of Alabama and Michigan was always hard, even before those juggernauts could just snatch up players like books in the campus library.

“Some of those leagues,” former Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher said in a radio interview earlier this year, “they’re becoming glorified junior colleges...."”

 

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1 hour ago, bullet said:

Sun Belt lost 21 all conference players to transfers, 18 to the P5.  MAC 20, 16 to P5.  CUSA 20-15 to P5.  AAC 12, 11 to P5.  MWC only 6, all to P5.

Well done hey can start by blaming Texas A&M.

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1 hour ago, bullet said:

That argument is over.  There are no walk-ons at the big schools.  Everyone will be getting a scholarship and NIL money and, soon, directly paid.  That's part of the House settlement, not that they have to give scholarships to everyone, but the scholarship limits are gone.  Its roster limits.  100 for football.  Baseball I think was 39.  And they will get full scholarships in the P4, no longer partials.  Sankey has been talking about that for several years.

I don’t think that’s as done as you. The rules are like you state, but that does not mean they can’t be revised. I see a distinct difference between a practice squad player and someone on the travel roster (like there is in the NFL) the legal definitions just haven’t fully caught up with reality.

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On 8/19/2024 at 11:58 AM, Napoleon said:

Well done hey can start by blaming Texas A&M.

But, where are they going going, I mean really going?

SEC Transfer Portal Movement Tracker

 

SEC Transfers

Total Transfers Out: 313
Total Transfer In: 180
Total Transfers Undecided: 88
Total Withdrawn: 10

Texas A&M Aggies

Total Transfers Out: 24
Total Transfer In: 21
Total Transfers Undecided: 6
Total Withdrawn: 1

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On 8/20/2024 at 12:52 PM, Hurtlocker said:

But, where are they going going, I mean really going?

SEC Transfer Portal Movement Tracker

 

SEC Transfers

Total Transfers Out: 313
Total Transfer In: 180
Total Transfers Undecided: 88
Total Withdrawn: 10

Texas A&M Aggies

Total Transfers Out: 24
Total Transfer In: 21
Total Transfers Undecided: 6
Total Withdrawn: 1

They lost 29 scholarship players and 2 walk-ons plus 2 withdrew their names and stayed.

Of the 29; 19 went to P5 programs, 8 went to G5 schools, and 2 are still in the portal.

aggy brought in 28 transfers; of those 17 are from P5 programs, 9 from G5, and 2 from FCS

 

In comparison, Texas lost 24 scholarship players, 1 withdrew, and 1 transferred in and out.

Of the 24; 12 went to P5 programs, 8 went to G5 schools, and 4 are still in the portal.

Texas brought in 10 transfers (plus one that transferred in and out); of those 8 were from P5 programs and 2 were from G5 schools.

This doesn’t account for quality of talent just raw numbers.

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SIAP... 

Dennis Dodd Bold Prediction: In February, ESPN will exercise its option not to extend the ACC contract beyond 2027.

Florida State -- having played the long game -- will have its out and be able to put itself on the market. FSU will do so at a much reduced rate to get out of the grant of rights since it will only have three years to run. Don't ask me where FSU goes, but if it is as free agent beginning in 2028, there will be Power Four interest. Basically, the next round of major realignment begins less than a month after the 2025 championship game. Buckle up.

In below article...

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/acc-expert-picks-2024-most-overrated-and-underrated-teams-projected-order-of-finish-bold-predictions/

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5 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

They lost 29 scholarship players and 2 walk-ons plus 2 withdrew their names and stayed.

Of the 29; 19 went to P5 programs, 8 went to G5 schools, and 2 are still in the portal.

aggy brought in 28 transfers; of those 17 are from P5 programs, 9 from G5, and 2 from FCS

 

In comparison, Texas lost 24 scholarship players, 1 withdrew, and 1 transferred in and out.

Of the 24; 12 went to P5 programs, 8 went to G5 schools, and 4 are still in the portal.

Texas brought in 10 transfers (plus one that transferred in and out); of those 8 were from P5 programs and 2 were from G5 schools.

This doesn’t account for quality of talent just raw numbers.

ha yeah, agreed.   I was more zinging to the wsj saying they were a development league.   Which, they are.   But the narrative is the flow is only one way, which is not the case.  There is a fuck ton of talent that everyone raves about one year and forgets about the next once its portaling.

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1 hour ago, LTtxfan said:

SIAP... 

Dennis Dodd Bold Prediction: In February, ESPN will exercise its option not to extend the ACC contract beyond 2027.

Florida State -- having played the long game -- will have its out and be able to put itself on the market. FSU will do so at a much reduced rate to get out of the grant of rights since it will only have three years to run. Don't ask me where FSU goes, but if it is as free agent beginning in 2028, there will be Power Four interest. Basically, the next round of major realignment begins less than a month after the 2025 championship game. Buckle up.

In below article...

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/acc-expert-picks-2024-most-overrated-and-underrated-teams-projected-order-of-finish-bold-predictions/

Power Four interest, you say?  I wonder if the ACC will be interested...

  • Haha 1
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On 8/21/2024 at 7:59 PM, Hurtlocker said:

ha yeah, agreed.   I was more zinging to the wsj saying they were a development league.   Which, they are.   But the narrative is the flow is only one way, which is not the case.  There is a fuck ton of talent that everyone raves about one year and forgets about the next once its portaling.

Gee, who could have guessed that legal pay for play with unlimited no-sit transfers would lead to the richest programs buying the top players from the lesser ones?

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On 8/24/2024 at 6:06 PM, notre dame joe said:

Gee, who could have guessed that legal pay for play with unlimited no-sit transfers would lead to the richest programs buying the top players from the lesser ones?

Seems like they're just constantly buying, lots leaving too

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They got a couple articles in there, but I only had one read left:

Quote

College Football Preview: The Butterfly Effect

The SEC’s stunning decision to add Oklahoma and Texas three years ago was just the start of the seismic moves remaking the college landscape

By Ben Portnoy8.26.2024

      

Commissioner Greg Sankey is arguably the kingpin behind the whirlwind of realignment that has swept the college sports world initially driven by the SEC’s decision to add Oklahoma and Texas.ap images

In the back right corner of the Wynfrey Hotel’s cavernous main ballroom in Hoover, Ala., “The Paul Finebaum Show” set shone like a beacon of light.

The show’s eponymous host, a voice in the center of a conference that majors in the wild and wacky, may well have a doctorate in such things. Finebaum has genuinely seen it all in the SEC, running the gamut from covering Bear Bryant’s retirement as an enterprising young reporter at the Birmingham Post-Herald to Harvey Updike’s infamous phone call revealing his poisoning of the trees at Toomer’s Corner at Auburn.

This is to say there are few things, if any, that leave Finebaum gobsmacked — at least until 3:38 p.m. on Aug. 21, 2021.

“Exclusive: Texas, Oklahoma reach out to SEC about joining conference.”

The Houston Chronicle headline on a story by Texas A&M beat reporter Brent Zwerneman, at first glance, read like a conspiracy-fueled message board post, forcing a double-take to verify its authenticity.

Rumblings of such discussions had circulated in the background in the days prior, but that was almost too unbelievable to be wholly true. Now it was reality.

Finebaum, then in the midst of his afternoon show, had warned staffers something might be on the horizon. A text from former Texas A&M head coach Jackie Sherrill promptly caught his attention — “I think it’s going down,” Sherrill wrote.

“We just went into DEFCON 1,” Finebaum quipped.

Texas and Oklahoma’s official membership invitations wouldn’t be approved by the league’s presidents for eight more days, but backdoor conversations about an SEC move had been circulating for months, while the schools’ initial research long predated that.

Texas Athletic Director Chris Del Conte, President Jay Hartzell and board of regents chairman Kevin Eltife had quietly mapped out options when the COVID-19 pandemic offered a chance to reevaluate the landscape. Concurrent discussions were held by Oklahoma AD Joe Castiglione and his tight inner circle of Sooners brass, who’d hired Octagon to conduct research and analysis around the business landscape of college sports as far back as 2018.

“It had been building a little bit,” Del Conte said. “We knew that there was a sunset in the Big 12 TV contract. If anyone in the chair at Texas [was] reading the tea leaves of what’s going on around the country, you knew that your responsibility was to the University of Texas.”

Oklahoma Athletic Director Joe Castiglione and the Sooners were in the middle of exploring better opportunities outside the Big 12 when the chance to join the SEC became a reality.Stacey West / @OU_Athletics

Those seismic shifts are now three years past, but the storm set off by Texas and Oklahoma’s departures from the Big 12, coupled with USC’s and UCLA’s moves to the Big Ten, have left a Category 5-level impact on the sport.

In all, 35 FBS schools — 17 in the power conferences and 18 in the Group of Five — and 71 total universities across Division I changed conferences since news first leaked in July 2021. Not all of those changes directly correlate to decisions made in Norman, Austin and Los Angeles, but there’s a line to be drawn from that day in Hoover and what has transpired since.

Sports Business Journal spoke with more than 50 administrators, commissioners and industry sources about the far-reaching ramifications and sliding doors of the past three years that, starting with the SEC expansion, have reshaped the college sports landscape ahead of the 2024 football season.

“When I think about certain decisions that were made — I’m not trying to necessarily equate it exactly to a chessboard moving pieces — [but] sometimes when pieces move, you start to think about, ‘What’s the next move for the other side?’” Castiglione said. “Doesn’t mean every move you make is going to be a good one, but you don’t want to get caught in a checkmate.”

Central Florida AD Terry Mohajir had been in Orlando only six months when the Chronicle report broke. The former Arkansas State administrator made it a point for his team to model logistics of a power conference move since his first week on campus.

The day after the SEC news leaked, Mohajir fired off a text to then-Big 12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby.

“Hello, Commissioner — Terry Mohajir, UCF Athletic Director,” he wrote. “Just wanted you to have my contact info.”

A reshaped Big 12 post-UT and OU

SEC Media Days elicit vibes reminiscent of the first day of school.

These mornings skew more toward Nick Saban’s sentiments on “rat poison” and Lane Kiffin’s Taylor Swift song preferences than any Woodward and Bernstein-esque muckraking. That lightheartedness persists into the evenings when reporters, bloggers and podcasters conclude their days over pitchers of beer at nearby smoky, strip mall bars, singing karaoke with co-workers late into the night.

The SEC’s 2021 media days followed a familiar tune — at least until the Chronicle’s story dropped.

Those in Austin and Norman had been sorting through logistics of a rollout plan. That idea was swiftly shot to hell. 

SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey was in the midst of his usual tour of radio row that snaked through the hotel and out into the attached mall when news broke. Reporters swarmed. Sankey, who’d anxiously wondered whether he’d be asked about the moves during his opening address on Monday of that week, deflected.

“I was aware that the possibility of a leak was greater over the preceding four or five days,” he said. “I had [heard] input from campuses that, ‘Hey, this is going on,’ or ‘Somebody told me this is going on.’”

That Texas and Oklahoma had their qualms with the Big 12 is well documented. Both schools had become increasingly wary of the long-term viability of the league, along with concerns over the overwhelming value provided by the Red River members compared to the rest of the conference, skepticism that wasn’t necessarily unfounded.

Texas and OU finished first and second in total revenue among the public Big 12 schools every year since 2012 — the final season Texas A&M competed in the league — per the Knight-Newhouse College Athletics Database. A current public Big 12 member also hadn’t outpaced either school in total revenue since 2010 ( Oklahoma State).

The same inequities carried over to the television side. Texas or Oklahoma was involved in each of the five most-viewed Big 12 regular-season games over the past three seasons. That includes the 2023 and 2021 Red River Rivalry games, which ranked first (8.1 million viewers) and third (6.49 million viewers), respectively, among eligible contests.

The SEC, which already has some of college football’s greatest rivalries, including Alabama-Auburn and Florida-Georgia, will now be home to the annual Red River Rivalry game pitting OU and Texas in the schools’ annual showdown game.getty images

Both schools had taken serious looks at joining the Pac-12 in 2011, before Commissioner Larry Scott opted to stick at 12 teams and discussions fizzled. A decade later, amid efforts by the Big 12 to extend its grant of rights, a potential move to the SEC became very, very real.

“There’s a great deal of respect there [toward the Big 12],” Castiglione said. “Still, we saw the shifting sands. [Deciding] whether we were going to be part of the path forward, or whether we were going to sit on the sidelines and watch it happen and then wonder what it meant to our program, we had to be proactive.”

Sankey had long forecast that the FBS might undergo a major shake-up. Hosting a meeting with presidents and chancellors in 2015, he presented a high-level analysis of the landscape over the next decade, including media contracts, decision dates and media household footprints for each of the Power Five conferences. The SEC, he predicted, would likely need to decide whether to expand beyond 14 members.

Fast-forward to June 2021 and Sankey had again gathered his presidents and chancellors to discuss, for the first time as a group, the potential additions of Texas and Oklahoma.

“I think what’s happened [since] validates our decision making,” said Sankey, arguably the top power broker in the latest round of realignment. “And, in some ways, magnifies our strength.”

Once news of Texas’ and OU’s intentions trickled out, a divorce that was messy in its earliest stages ensued. Tensions eventually simmered down significantly when Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark replaced Bowlsby, who stepped down in 2022, and the sides reached an agreement to part on more amicable terms.

Then-Texas A&M AD Ross Bjork, who was on-site at SEC Media Days, blasted the idea of adding Texas and Oklahoma into any microphone he could find. That largely fell on deaf ears.

Four days later, Bowlsby, who declined to be interviewed for this story, sent a cease-and-desist letter to ESPN, accusing it of encouraging other leagues to poach the Big 12’s remaining membership to allow Texas and Oklahoma a quicker exit. ESPN denied the claims.

“The announcement created turmoil and turbulence for people,” Sankey said. “Obviously, it created a need for the Big 12 to adjust, [but] I’m certain there were other conferences reaching out. So, for all of those who want to be critics, I’m quite certain that even before the leak about their interest in the SEC, there was outreach to those two universities taking place, and I don’t feel the need to apologize for the growth.”

By September, Bowlsby had orchestrated four additions of his own — BYU, UCF, Cincinnati and Houston.

BYU, which had spent the previous 10 years as an independent, had presented to the Big 12 as recently as 2016 — a meeting that included AD Tom Holmoe and football coach Kalani Sitake. “We felt it went great,” Holmoe said of that meeting. “We felt we were ready to go.”

The Big 12 decided against expansion then. An invitation didn’t come BYU’s way for six more years.

“I grew up in California and there’s a lot of earthquakes that I lived through,” Holmoe said. “You got earthquakes a lot, but if you live in California, you really need to worry about tectonic plate shifting. [Texas and Oklahoma] was one of them.”

As schools left Conference USA for other leagues, Sam Houston State was one of four new programs joining in 2023. CUSA will grow to 12 members in 2025.getty images

The aftershock of those concurrent moves by the SEC and Big 12 percolated hastily through the college ecosystem.

Charlotte AD Mike Hill “marched” down to his chancellor’s office when he first heard about Texas and Oklahoma to suggest, “I think this is a golden opportunity, potentially, for us to make our move to get into the American.”

In Nacogdoches, Texas, Stephen F. Austin State University had already begun its own transition from the Southland to the WAC in January 2021 (it eventually returned to the Southland in 2024). AD Ryan Ivey, now in the same post at Louisiana Tech, joked, “Texas and Oklahoma were just trying to be like us.”

The Big Ten was still months away from its own bombshell additions, but myriad administrators also started their own background research.

“We immediately got some inbounds from the other Big 12 members concerned about the stability of their league and seeking a place inside the Pac-12 at that time,” Oregon AD Rob Mullens said. “And then we started making sure that we understood our own positioning, that we understood where Oregon athletics was, and we began a little bit deeper work on that front.”

That “deeper work” paid off.

‘The Alliance’ and the Big Ten’s westward move

It’s hard not to think of a pandemic-afflicted world when pulling press conference footage from Aug. 24, 2021.

The trio of commissioners Jim Phillips ( ACC), Kevin Warren (Big Ten) and George Kliavkoff (Pac-12) — the latter two no longer in their posts —  were arranged in a triangular format on screen, their respective conference logos plastered on digital billboards behind them.

The optics now feel odd. The messaging then, too, had its detractors. Nonetheless, “The Alliance” was born.

“Our discussions centered on the unprecedented environment in college athletics today and how best we, together, could address the challenges ahead,” Phillips said at the time.

Formed in wake of the SEC’s additions of Texas and Oklahoma, “The Alliance” was a gentlemen’s agreement among the three leagues to work together and create a united front against further realignment, among other efforts.

There was no contract. Only words. It lasted all of 10 months.

“Where those in the Alliance indicated their motivation was stability, it didn’t work so well,” Sankey deadpanned. “Whether the expansions of 2022, 2023 needed to happen in response, I’m not convinced they did. But others made decisions.”

Warren never necessarily set out to expand to the West Coast, but opportunity arose when USC and UCLA applied for membership. Those in the know on the proceedings were a small group. That was by design, meaning shorter odds of a leak.

UCLA AD Martin Jarmond and Chancellor Gene Block were the only people aware of any kind of exploration in Westwood for months. A similar setup ensued at USC between then-AD Mike Bohn and President Carol Folt, multiple sources told Sports Business Journal.

“When you do things like [changing conferences], it has to be extremely tight and confidential, because there’s so much at risk,” said Jarmond, the only one of the four key stakeholders from USC and UCLA that remains in their job. “That’s why it was extremely important just to work closely with my chancellor.”

Warren’s circle, too, was tight, involving virtually just Anil Gollahalli, the Big Ten’s chief legal officer and general counsel, consultant Carrie Cecil and an outside attorney. 

Gollahalli, the former vice president and general counsel at Oklahoma and a key adviser of Castiglione’s in orchestrating the Sooners’ SEC move, provided legal support from the conference side in his second prominent feature in realignment. 

At the Big Ten Media Days last month in Indianapolis, Oregon, UCLA, Southern Cal and Washington uniforms were on display with the added Big Ten logo. All four schools begin league play this fall.getty images (4)

Cecil, meanwhile, was tasked with orchestrating strategies around narrating the move to mitigate risk across legal, legislative and reputational avenues.

“I didn’t think he was going to leave [Oklahoma] and be a part of [realignment] again,” Castiglione joked of Gollahalli, who wasn’t made available for this story. “I said [to him], ‘Well, two summers in a row, what’s your encore?’”

Conversations among the Big Ten, USC and UCLA accelerated in the summer of 2022. They culminated with a June 30 announcement that the league’s presidents had approved their applications.Warren, now president and CEO of the Chicago Bears and who didn’t respond to a request for an interview for this story, had promised his wife, Greta, a massive tennis fan, a dream trip to Wimbledon over that weekend.

Then duty called.

Awaiting final word that the Big Ten could go forward with its announcement that it would add USC and UCLA, Warren found a quiet spot near the grounds at the All England Lawn Tennis & Croquet Club and posted up in a folding chair against a chain-link fence, a source said. Sweat dripped down his brow, not out of nervousness, but from fighting the midsummer London heat as he anticipated the go-ahead.

“I was well aware of the restlessness, sure, but, in part because of the geography, I thought they [USC] were more likely to go independent,” former Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick said. “Not surprised they did something. A little surprised it turned out to be the Big Ten.”

Next came a sprint.

The Big Ten was simultaneously negotiating its media rights contract that would eventually net it a deal worth more than $1 billion annually with Fox, CBS and NBC. But how much they could share about potential expansion throughout those discussions with network partners was touch-and-go.

Adding USC and UCLA that summer forced a streamlining of what can be a years-long timeline in prepping for media negotiations into months. Warren and his team worked to secure the long-term television deal in hyperspeed, announcing its completion in August 2022.

Big Ten COO Kerry Kenny, on paternity leave for the birth of his daughter during the early part of 2022, and with the Big Ten still working largely remotely from March through July of that year, spent the bulk of that time with a few helpers by his side.

“My [Great Pyrenees] Archie, and my daughter, Harper, were probably two of the most plugged-in people in the industry,” Kenny joked. “Because they sat with me on so many Zoom calls and on so many phone calls while I was working remote and trying to be available there at home.”

The Big 12’s revival and Pac-12’s fall

Yormark never had sights on destroying the Pac-12.

Being aggressive, though? That’s in his nature. 

Yormark is a bulldog. He cuts deals and gets results. That’s part of why the hard-charging New Yorker made a perfect dance partner for the cowboy-boot-clad brass of the Big 12 after Bowlsby’s resignation.

Standing on the podium during his first Big 12 Media Days, Yormark mustered a line that’s resonated in the years since, declaring the league “Open for business.”

“When I think about the overall industry, I came here with my eyes wide open,” he said. “I knew the industry was ultimately going to go through a transformative moment. … Wherever I’ve been, I’ve embraced change and I managed to change, and that’s what we’re doing as a conference.”

The realignment carousel continued to swirl as Yormark settled into his role. Tony Petitti, who wasn’t made available for this story, replaced Warren as Big Ten commissioner in April 2023, while Kliavkoff fought to keep his league — and his job — afloat through its own media rights discussions.

Kliavkoff’s efforts in negotiations have been made largely public. The back-and-forth with ESPN saw the network eventually walk away from negotiations due, most contend, to the Pac-12’s overinflated valuations.

Yormark, meanwhile, hired Endeavor in an effort to jump the Pac-12 in the line of expiring deals. Fox and ESPN were willing to listen, agreeing to a six-year, $2.2 billion deal in October 2022 that brought much-needed stability to the Big 12 — and forced the Pac-12 into a corner.

Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark, one of the key drivers in the massive changes to the college landscape, talks to reporters at the league’s media days in July. The conference begins the 2024 season with 16 schools thanks to realignment including Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah.ap images

“When I came on board here, I hired Endeavor to outsource quite a few things, because we didn’t have the infrastructure at the time and the human capital in place to do some of the things I wanted to,” Yormark explained. “After meeting with them early on, we said, ‘Let's go early. Let’s get in front of ESPN. Let’s get in front of Fox. Let’s see if they have the appetite for certainty for themselves, and if so, let’s see if we can get to a place that makes sense for all of us.’ And, thankfully, it all came together.”

The final 48 hours of the Pac-12 could justify a novel on their own. 

Oregon and Washington were in. Then they weren’t. A TV deal centered on streaming with Apple that Kliavkoff, who didn’t respond to an email request to be interviewed for this story, had pitched to his presidents as an option to rectify past missteps in the process. Apprehension and panic set in.

“My boss, Chancellor [Carol] Christ, and I were all in for the Pac-12,” Cal AD Jim Knowlton said. “She talked to all of her colleagues — presidents and chancellors — and was convinced that this was going to have a grant of rights signed and we would continue.

“We could see some of the challenges. The numbers that we got from the media companies — and it was really just Apple at the end — were not what we wanted.”

Oregon and Washington elected not to sign the Pac-12 grant of rights and instead bolted for the Big Ten on Aug. 4., 2023, giving Petitti two more West Coast schools as he settled into his new gig.

And so open season began.

Colorado announced a week earlier it would rejoin the Big 12 after a decade-plus in the Pac-12. Washington and Oregon formally departed next, while Utah, Arizona and Arizona State eventually followed Colorado to the Big 12.

Stanford and Cal found homes in, of all places, the ACC, along with SMU from the American.

Washington State and Oregon State were left to pick up the Pac-12 pieces.

“It’s hard to describe, because the depth and the spectrum of emotions is pretty intense,” said Pac-12 Commissioner Teresa Gould, who replaced Kliavkoff when he was ousted earlier this year. “We had 195 people on our team. That has now been whittled down to 30.”

The fallout, however, was only beginning.

“USC and UCLA [leaving] the year after Texas and Oklahoma,” recounted former AAC Commissioner Mike Aresco, “That’s when I think we crossed the Rubicon in terms of what I consider ridiculous realignment.”

The Group of Five fallout and other changes

New Mexico State AD Mario Moccia glances down at the cork resting on his desk.

The champagne stopper marked with a date in black ink holds a special meaning to those in Las Cruces: “C-USA, 11-5-21.”

“[Conference realignment is] kind of like the door in ‘Titanic,’” Moccia said. “It may not be the best option, but it beats freezing to death in the water, so — Rose, move on over and let us get on.”

Moccia was one of 54 athletic directors outside the power conferences to see their school change conferences in the latest swath of realignment, dropping independence for the friendlier confines of Conference USA, which underwent its own share of turnover.

“The Conference USA invitation,” he continued, “I label it as a godsend for New Mexico State.”

The American had seen ample upheaval when Cincinnati, Houston and UCF departed for the Big 12. Aresco went on the offensive, as six schools came into focus in October 2021 — Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Rice, UAB and UTSA (Army was also added as a football-only member in 2023).

CUSA was subsequently put on life support. The Sun Belt snatched Southern Miss, Old Dominion and Marshall, and added James Madison from the FCS ranks. Then came the American’s six grabs, dropping CUSA’s membership to five.

Tasked with a complete overhaul, CUSA Commissioner Judy MacLeod put out feelers with a handful of schools, while balancing media rights negotiations with ESPN and CBS Sports Network. The league eventually landed on Sam Houston State, New Mexico State, Liberty, Jacksonville State and Kennesaw State. Delaware and Missouri State accepted invitations in 2023 and 2024, respectively, bringing membership up to 12 schools.

“College athletics really didn’t substantially change for so long,” MacLeod said. “We got so behind and now the change is just rapid. It’s just become part of the deal.”

Liberty, like BYU and New Mexico State, had operated as an independent in football with sights set on more. The conservative Christian university in Virginia always had fixations on FBS conference alignment, but tangible opportunities were in short supply.

New Mexico State is one of 71 schools, 35 in the FBS, which have changed conference affiliation since the announcement that Oklahoma and Texas were joining the SEC in July 2021.getty images

It’s not for lack of investment. Liberty’s facilities rival that of power conference programs. Its football team, too, enjoyed vast success under now-Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze. The invite, though, was never there.

“We’re a beneficiary of the Texas/OU move to the SEC that created a series of dominoes with conference realignment affecting the American, Sun Belt and Conference USA,” Liberty AD Ian McCaw said. “It afforded us an opportunity.”

Further down the line, the conference realignment shuffle persisted.

The Southland added five teams over the past three years under the direction of Chris Grant, who left the Pac-12 office to become the league’s commissioner-in-waiting and took over officially in April 2022.

That song and dance included Stephen F. Austin and Lamar returning to the league; two new members — Texas A&M-Commerce and UT-Rio Grande Valley — moving up to Division I; and a 180-degree turn from Incarnate Word, which had announced its intentions to leave for the WAC in November 2021 before reversing course in June 2022.

“It’s been pandemonium,” Grant said, laughing.

Halfway across the country, N.C. A&T moved conferences twice in the past four years, first leaving its historic home in the MEAC for the Big South, before bolting the Big South for the Coastal Athletic Association in 2022.

Southern Indiana, West Georgia and Queens University (Charlotte) were among those nine schools that jumped from Division II to Division I since summer 2021, the former joining the Ohio Valley and the other two heading for the Atlantic Sun Conference.

Even Loyola-Chicago, which hasn’t fielded a football team since the Hoover administration, shifted from the Missouri Valley to the basketball-centric Atlantic 10 in 2021, with a subtle nod to the SEC and Big Ten.

“You worry about the public perception of making a move like [Texas and Oklahoma did],” Loyola AD Steve Watson said. “And it was almost like moving conferences was more accepted, and it was OK. I think people started to understand that the schools are going to look for the best fit for them.”

Aresco picked up his phone in late July just a few hours before his tee time. The now-retired commissioner was in the midst of a weeks-long golf trip to Scotland that included stops at Ardfin and Gleneagles.

There’s a calmness in Aresco’s voice these days. Issues of realignment and College Football Playoff contracts are no longer his concern. Dropping putts and straightening out his nine-iron are more pressing worries. The coming season kicking off in earnest this week, too, is of little worry.

Still, Aresco has a few sage thoughts regarding the shifting landscape.

“Maybe this will turn out to be beneficial in a way that we didn’t anticipate right now,” Aresco said. “I don’t particularly like what’s happening, because I don’t think it’s college sports anymore and there’s a price to pay when you do that — but we’ll see.”

Two days before news of Texas and Oklahoma’s moves leaked, Aresco, Phillips and Sankey attended a retirement party for ACC Commissioner John Swofford at the Westin in Charlotte.

Swofford, who’d led the league for 24 years with minimal disruption, regaled the crowd and even ditched his usual tie for the occasion — perhaps a subtle nod to calmer personal days ahead. There was no talk of Texas and Oklahoma, nor USC and UCLA. There surely was no thought of an ACC armed with a West Coast faction.

Standing in the back of the room with his wife, Cathy, Sankey scanned the scene, hoping no one would ask about the bombshell secret being masked by his placid exterior.

“How nice it must feel to be retiring on a successful note,” he thought, “and not have the kind of knot in my stomach that I have at this moment.”

Little did anyone else know what the next week would set in motion. 

 

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The Big 12 would be really stupid to add UCONN.  The ACC is on the verge of implosion. There will be much better schools to add in the near future.  They should be gearing up to add FSU, Miami, Virginia Tech, Pitt, Louisville, etc.  There are probably 10 schools I would add before UCONN.

This is the litmus test:  Is anyone going to tune in to watch X team play Texas Tech in football in October?  I would tune in to watch Miami vs. Tech.  Or Virginia Tech vs. Tech.  Louisville vs. Tech could be fun.  Nobody cares about UCONN vs. Tech or any other member of the Big 12.

 

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On 8/19/2024 at 9:42 AM, bullet said:

 

“Some of those leagues,” former Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher said in a radio interview earlier this year, “they’re becoming glorified junior colleges...."”

 

I’d listen to this guy.  He’s being paid a LOT of money to consult.  

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Adding UConn and adding ACC schools are completely unrelated. The Big 12 will be able to add any ACC schools that are willing to move, and there is no set limit of additions that could be added from the ACC. Whether the result is a conference of 20, 24, 28, 32, it doesn't matter at all if media partners pay well for it. This 20 or 24 number is just imaginary. However, the withdrawal fee/GOR legal dispute is going to play out first. It may take a long time, so FSU will probably resort to writing a pretty big check before it's over. Then, any of the others are going to have to decide what they want to do. Stay until it is closer to the end of the media rights contract, or go.

Adding UConn basketball with conditions for adding football in 2031 gets you a basketball blueblood in a market connected to approximately 11 MM television housholds, right now. All for no cost, as ESPN has said they would make it cost neutral for the conference. If UConn indeed invests in an on-campus stadium and commits resources to football, then that addition could pay off in 2031 as well.

Think of this situation as UConn deciding  whether they want to continue having a football program or not. Playing out in front of us all in real time.

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Also, it is speculated that Yormark himself is placing his political chips ino the center of the table for this move. It is suppossedly Yormark's people who leaked these talks to the press, in order to apply pressure to Big 12 presidents. Big 12 consultants also think the move is a good one.

Ex-president of FOX sports weighing in:

Remember, Yormark has talked about selling the basketball and football television rights separately for the next media agreement in 2031.

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Adding UConn would make Big 12 basketball analogous to SEC football - possibly beyond that.  We all know that football is king, but March Madness is massive financially, and it would hurt the Big 10 and SEC financially if that blew up.

This move pushes us to a spot where the Big 12 can credibly say “if you cut us out of the football playoff, we’re cutting you out of the basketball playoff”.  A Big 12/East/ACC plus the Cinderellas tournament would be a lesser product, but still viable - much like an SEC/Big 10 exclusive football post season.

I see this as a move towards a “mutually assured self destruction so let’s all play nice” type arrangement.

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1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Adding UConn would make Big 12 basketball analogous to SEC football - possibly beyond that.  We all know that football is king, but March Madness is massive financially, and it would hurt the Big 10 and SEC financially if that blew up.

This move pushes us to a spot where the Big 12 can credibly say “if you cut us out of the football playoff, we’re cutting you out of the basketball playoff”.  A Big 12/East/ACC plus the Cinderellas tournament would be a lesser product, but still viable - much like an SEC/Big 10 exclusive football post season.

I see this as a move towards a “mutually assured self destruction so let’s all play nice” type arrangement.

1. The Big XII is good at basketball, very good some years. Why? We know why the SEC is so good at football- football requires a lot of players, and the SEC schools are located right where a lot of players grow up. 
Basketball doesn’t require as many players, so Big XII schools, so many located in non-growing states, can fill rosters by keeping local talent and recruiting the rest. Big XII schools tend to emphasize basketball programs and hire coaches accordingly. 
The point is- the Big XII does not have any innate basketball advantage that other conferences can’t imitate. 


2. The NCAA Tournament makes a lot of money. The schools and conferences don’t own the tournament. The NCAA owns it. It is the organization’s crown jewel. 
The NCAA does not own the CFP. The CFA break was 40 years ago. The NCAA basketball money is distributed by the NCAA to the conferences and schools. Brett Yormark doesn’t get a say in that other than “Thank you”. 
 
Other than that, great fan fiction!

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its only happening now because the big 12 wants to take away a possible addition to the acc when north carolina, florida state and clemson leave.  which makes it easier to add schools like virginia tech, north carolina state, louisville, and pitt. 

edit: maybe a duke or miami. 

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32 minutes ago, statsman said:

1. The Big XII is good at basketball, very good some years. Why? We know why the SEC is so good at football- football requires a lot of players, and the SEC schools are located right where a lot of players grow up. 
Basketball doesn’t require as many players, so Big XII schools, so many located in non-growing states, can fill rosters by keeping local talent and recruiting the rest. Big XII schools tend to emphasize basketball programs and hire coaches accordingly. 
The point is- the Big XII does not have any innate basketball advantage that other conferences can’t imitate. 


2. The NCAA Tournament makes a lot of money. The schools and conferences don’t own the tournament. The NCAA owns it. It is the organization’s crown jewel. 
The NCAA does not own the CFP. The CFA break was 40 years ago. The NCAA basketball money is distributed by the NCAA to the conferences and schools. Brett Yormark doesn’t get a say in that other than “Thank you”. 
 
Other than that, great fan fiction!

1) The schools in the Big 12 care about the sport more than schools in other leagues.  That's not going to change quickly.  They invest in the sport at a level other programs simply don't care to, and likely won't at the risk of their football programs.  It's not an advantage that can't be replicated, but it's an advantage that likely won't be replicated.

2) The NCAA is not long for this world.  There will be a day when the college basketball tournament is no longer controlled by the NCAA, and that day isn't far off.  

The whole point is that long term there will be enough financial incentive for the most powerful football conferences to keep playing basketball against the best basketball conferences.  The Big 12 can never financially match the SEC and Big 10, but by being the absolute best basketball conference they can bring enough value to avoid getting cut out of football, which is really all the fans and administrators want.  Our doomsday scenario is being shut out of the highest level of college football and the best way to avoid that is by creating enough cumulative value that the Big 10 and SEC find value in keeping others at the table.  They'll still get the most teams in football, make the most money, and win the most championships.  The CFP, and all college football, will get better ratings by at least having the appearance that anyone can qualify if they take care of business.  A formal separation, while still financially viable for the SEC and Big 10, would almost be guaranteed to draw fewer eyeballs than they currently do, but there are an awful lot of people who seem more motivated by the air of exclusivity than by what's actually going to make the most money in the long run, so it remains a risk.

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Al, you’re in the parking lot at the ballpark. So almost there.

Once a new tier/league/whatever comes to fruition, you won’t see a b1g/sec/b12 distinction. They’ll be gone. Now the members of those leagues, of course. But they won’t retain their former identity. Commissioners may get a position with the new league, but there won’t be a big/sec/b12 to run after the merger.

How that all ends up looking is anyone’s guess, but the conferences of today will be a memory.

 

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2 minutes ago, thunderlounge said:

Al, you’re in the parking lot at the ballpark. So almost there.

Once a new tier/league/whatever comes to fruition, you won’t see a b1g/sec/b12 distinction. They’ll be gone. Now the members of those leagues, of course. But they won’t retain their former identity. Commissioners may get a position with the new league, but there won’t be a big/sec/b12 to run after the merger.

How that all ends up looking is anyone’s guess, but the conferences of today will be a memory.

 

Maybe they’ll keep the names, along the lines of what the AFC and NFC did. 

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20 minutes ago, thunderlounge said:

Al, you’re in the parking lot at the ballpark. So almost there.

Once a new tier/league/whatever comes to fruition, you won’t see a b1g/sec/b12 distinction. They’ll be gone. Now the members of those leagues, of course. But they won’t retain their former identity. Commissioners may get a position with the new league, but there won’t be a big/sec/b12 to run after the merger.

How that all ends up looking is anyone’s guess, but the conferences of today will be a memory.

 

Yeah, that's all logical.  I've said before that I think the conference model is really useless at this point.

But I do think that the Big 12's push to shore up being the best basketball league is directly tied to those universities doing all they can to continue having a seat at the highest competitive levels of revenue generating college sports.

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I’m just in awe of Al4ISU’s strategy for the B12 to gain basketball dominance by “caring more about basketball”. There is no way the ACC, for example, can imitate that. 
 
Then, if the B1G and SEC try something funny with the CFP, the Big 12 will say that they (including Kentucky, Indiana, etc) can’t play in their tournament 

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53 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Yeah, that's all logical.  I've said before that I think the conference model is really useless at this point.

But I do think that the Big 12's push to shore up being the best basketball league is directly tied to those universities doing all they can to continue having a seat at the highest competitive levels of revenue generating college sports.

 

It is useless in that scenario, at least in terms of what we consider a conference today.

I've thought a lot about it, and keep coming back to the 48 number I walked through as a possibility a few pages ago, which ties into your main point. In a 48 scenario, not every team from the b1g/sec/b12/remnants of acc is going to get in. But most will. However, you have to remember to do the most important thing in this whole ordeal: follow the money.

Using current numbers, the sec and b1g combine for 34, leaving 14 openings. Here's where shit gets "fun" for us. FSU is doing their damnedest to bend over the ACC, and pretty much most competent people see the writing on the wall. The acc may not go the way of the PAC, but only because the majority of their membership will not have a landing spot in one of the sec/b1g/b12. Of course remember now, the new whatever league will still need some of those "bottom-feeder" teams to take the losses. However, it wouldn't surprise me to see a shakeup at that level. This is why the conferences of today must dissolve (or wither on the vine) to enter the new league. This would allow for the jettisoning of some less desirable teams in favor of more competitive, but still not a significant threat, teams that will pull more viewers.

This is how Rutgers, Maryland, Illinois, Houston, Cinci, etc get nixed. It's not that they get kicked out of their conference, per say, they just don't get invited to the new deal. However that shakes out, of course, but you get the idea of it. Kind of similar to how the SWC blew up to create the b12 from the b8 in the first place.

It still comes down to money, and how those paying the bill are best able to leverage their investment to generate as profitable of a return as possible. Illinois vs Rutgers, or IAST vs MissST? What's going to draw more between the two? Of course that's just an example, but those are the types of things that are being looked at for influence on how to get it done.

So back to 14 spots, and we'll say 4 teams total are not invited from the sec/b1g, so 18 spots. Those 18 spots will come from the acc, but mostly the b12. And of course, there will be a spot for ND, but only if they want it. I can't imagine they would still balk at the idea, but who knows with them.

The biggest take away for any b12 school, save a few, from this should still be to pump money into football. However, I do agree that also being home to many very good basketball programs will help. But there's got to be both, and football first on the list.

Right now it isn't about making the b1g or sec any longer. Now the play is through the acc, and either its transformation or destruction. Shake out the half dozen or so teams from that, landing in the b12, there you go. ACC no longer an influence, and now teams can be invited from the b12 and leave behind the rest.

If the b12 were at 22, and there were 14 spots available (maybe up to 18, but who knows), who would be the 8 not getting invited? Houston, Cinci, UCF, Baylor, of course. From there a hair trickier. Roaches? Tceh? Mormons? AZST? Ralphie?

Can't say SMU, because they wouldn't make it from acc to b12 in the first place. At this point, I'm guessing at most into the b12 would be all the desirable teams, that would eventually move to the new league: UNC, NCST, VA, VT, Clemson, FSU. Maybe swap in Duke, who knows. The execs have the numbers they can make money on, so they'll figure it out. However, one thing is becoming clear: How Rut/MD got into the b1g (cable footprint for b1g network) isn't going to fly in the new deal. It's going to be about how many eyeballs are brought and actually watch, not how many cable subs can have a few more bucks slammed onto them.

 

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1 hour ago, statsman said:

I’m just in awe of Al4ISU’s strategy for the B12 to gain basketball dominance by “caring more about basketball”. There is no way the ACC, for example, can imitate that. 
 
Then, if the B1G and SEC try something funny with the CFP, the Big 12 will say that they (including Kentucky, Indiana, etc) can’t play in their tournament 

Look at you, arguing in bad faith like normal.  The SEC's tagline RE football is literally "It just means more".

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I’ve been reading these threads for a while. Observation- it is stated by most (and all of the Left Behind) that the B12 is a stronger, better and more stable conference than the ACC. That assumption seems to be based on two points:

1. The B12 having a better media deal. 
2. Clemson and FSU clearly trying to leave. 
 
I offer some counterpoints. 
 
A. The ACC got more media revenue last year, when the ACC network revenue is included. Yes, they have a longer contract locking them in. I counter that with: the ACC plays eight conference games while the B12 plays nine. The ACC still has more potential for increasing revenue. 
B. On the new B12 media contract, Fox really didn’t increase their payment. The growth came from ESPN, and my belief is ESPN is paying for an early release of UT and OU, and this won’t be carried into the next contract. 
C. I have no idea what Clemson and FSU have for plans, but I’m 99% sure they’re not fighting to leave the ACC so that they can join the B12. 
 
A lot of words to support this premise I have: I don’t see the B12 as necessarily having a better position (and future) than the ACC. 

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8 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Look at you, arguing in bad faith like normal.  The SEC's tagline RE football is literally "It just means more".

Anyone who thinks SEC dominance in football is based on caring more is an idiot. 
 
My suspicion is that “Our nation’s sordid history of race slavery left us with most of the good players” didn’t test well. 

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3 minutes ago, statsman said:

I’ve been reading these threads for a while. Observation- it is stated by most (and all of the Left Behind) that the B12 is a stronger, better and more stable conference than the ACC. That assumption seems to be based on two points:

1. The B12 having a better media deal. 
2. Clemson and FSU clearly trying to leave. 
 
I offer some counterpoints. 
 
A. The ACC got more media revenue last year, when the ACC network revenue is included. Yes, they have a longer contract locking them in. I counter that with: the ACC plays eight conference games while the B12 plays nine. The ACC still has more potential for increasing revenue. 
B. On the new B12 media contract, Fox really didn’t increase their payment. The growth came from ESPN, and my belief is ESPN is paying for an early release of UT and OU, and this won’t be carried into the next contract. 
C. I have no idea what Clemson and FSU have for plans, but I’m 99% sure they’re not fighting to leave the ACC so that they can join the B12. 
 
A lot of words to support this premise I have: I don’t see the B12 as necessarily having a better position (and future) than the ACC. 

Most of the people following college sports view this quite differently than you do.  You've been wishcasting the Big 12's demise just as hard, if not harder, than Big 12 fans have been wishcasting it's survival.

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8 minutes ago, statsman said:

Anyone who thinks SEC dominance in football is based on caring more is an idiot. 
 
My suspicion is that “Our nation’s sordid history of race slavery left us with most of the good players” didn’t test well. 

You're not wrong on the reason for the South having more good football players, but if you don't think the off the charts "give a shit" level of SEC fanbases hasn't been a major contributor to both the league's on-field success and the way it had completely won the narrative battle off the field long before it actually was the best conference, I don't know what to tell you.  It makes a difference, and it makes a difference in Big 12 basketball.  It's part of the reason the Big 12 outlasted the Pac 12.  Those schools and fanbases just didn't care enough to fight for it and be proactive with their organization.

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33 minutes ago, statsman said:

Anyone who thinks SEC dominance in football is based on caring more is an idiot. 
 
My suspicion is that “Our nation’s sordid history of race slavery left us with most of the good players” didn’t test well. 

Ok I know we go back and forth in this thread, but this is genuinely hilarious, well done! 🤣 🤣 

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