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2023 Transfer Thread - Texas Capitalized, ATM Victimized


closetojumping

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I would love to have Bear. He is an obvious upgrade. He would allow Texas to have a 4 man rotation at DT of future draft picks. That said he is the epitome of a luxury pick-up. DT is arguably the best position on the team. It is also on the verge of becoming a question mark next year. The staff needs to develop some of the young guys this year or they will be forced to hit the portal hard at DT next year. You could have Collins, Murphy, Sweat leave after this season. Bear would most likely be a 1 and done. He would also make it harder to get the young guys needed snaps this year. Bear would be a move you make, if you are looking for a title run this year. I dont think Texas is at that point and everything Sark has done the first 2 years has been with a focus for the future. 
Did anyone including froggy themselves think they were in position for a title run in '22? We have way more talent across the board than that team.
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5 hours ago, Reese Bennett said:

Smalls is 6-3, 257. Academic honor roll at Washington. More than a few snaps, not much production. Sounds like part of the problem is moving from HS LB to college EdGe. According to the Internet, he hasn't mastered the technique or the play diagnosis and has a hard time setting the edge.

Sounds like he’s too smalls. 

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7 hours ago, Reese Bennett said:

Smalls is 6-3, 257. Academic honor roll at Washington. More than a few snaps, not much production. Sounds like part of the problem is moving from HS LB to college EdGe. According to the Internet, he hasn't mastered the technique or the play diagnosis and has a hard time setting the edge.

Sir, while we have you, please feel free to change the thread title on the 2024 thread. 

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16 hours ago, SquishMitten said:

Additionally, as CTJ noted, there are so many guys that are getting nothing. It really sucks for them. A great analogy is the current job market for many industries. You have employees that have been in the company forever, have shown their worth and their loyalty, but new hires straight out of undergrad are making as much or more than those folks who have been around forever. What can those employees do? Ask for a raise and maybe get 8% instead of their usual 3-5%? Or do they go on a few interviews and see that they can get a 50% increase? Because that’s the kind of shit we’re dealing with. Current employers in this scenario (aka the NIL collectives) have to offer all those guys something pretty substantial to keep them from going on those interviews. It was inevitable in hindsight, but it’s happened so fucking fast, a lot of people got out over their skis, and everybody is racing to figure it out…some doing much better than others!

I think moving towards the floor per player is the most sustainable long term model. "Hey, if you come here you are going to make $100K just for being a scholarship athlete at the University of Texas. Plus there are countless corporate opportunities for you to go out and increase that with your people." If I am a quality starter, that is probably good enough for me to not want to test the waters too much. If I am a star, then those sponsorships will take care of themselves like Bijan and Quinn. Last I checked, people arent throwing seven figures at linemen and linebackers. $100K per year as a college student is life changing money.  

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15 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

I think moving towards the floor per player is the most sustainable long term model. "Hey, if you come here you are going to make $100K just for being a scholarship athlete at the University of Texas. Plus there are countless corporate opportunities for you to go out and increase that with your people." If I am a quality starter, that is probably good enough for me to not want to test the waters too much. If I am a star, then those sponsorships will take care of themselves like Bijan and Quinn. Last I checked, people arent throwing seven figures at linemen and linebackers. $100K per year as a college student is life changing money.  

That was literally the goal of HWH and OneFund. But things come along and the road to achieving that vision doesn't always exist without bumps and detours. 

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5 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

That was literally the goal of HWH and OneFund. But things come along and the road to achieving that vision doesn't always exist without bumps and detours. 

I see it helping but I think there will always be problems with the current open market. I think players are going to continue testing the market, thinking that their value is higher than reality. I also think coaches are going to become increasingly ruthless in roster management. So, the number of athletes entering the portal is going to continue to be large and a good number of kids are going to be left without scholarships and without schools. It will be pure capitalism where there will be a few big winners, a lot of small time winners, and a lot of losers.

In the case of someone like Bear Alexander, the player will never be satisfied and will always be a flight risk. He may think he is worth 11 billion dollars, and unfortunately some dumb school is going to be willing to pay it. I would love for some big names to learn their lessons the hard way but it just isn't going to happen. Guys like him will be the big winners.

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7 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Bama, Georgia, LSU, Clemson and Ohio State are all suddenly realizing that they don't have fat enough stacks to throw their weight around constantly. They're having to make choices. They've all pushed up taking guys sooner than they used to prefer to do so, mostly to prevent summer visits that drive up prices.

Georgia's and tOSU's classes are showing that to be a sound strategy. I think we will be in for a bumpy ride as we wait things out. FSU, Miami, Florida, Tennessee and everyone else are going to be scrambling in the fall to complete their classes and prices that the players will command will be higher than whatever tOSU and Georgia are paying now.

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55 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

I think moving towards the floor per player is the most sustainable long term model. "Hey, if you come here you are going to make $100K just for being a scholarship athlete at the University of Texas. Plus there are countless corporate opportunities for you to go out and increase that with your people." If I am a quality starter, that is probably good enough for me to not want to test the waters too much. If I am a star, then those sponsorships will take care of themselves like Bijan and Quinn. Last I checked, people arent throwing seven figures at linemen and linebackers. $100K per year as a college student is life changing money.  

Agree that establishing a base will be very important, but $100k feels unrealistic. For a roster of 85 players, that requires ~35,000 people giving $20/mo in perpetuity. Maybe I'm way too pessimistic.

Feels like the "best" model is to just be Oregon or Miami and have a single billionaire donor who has both the money and the desire to be at the top of the food chain year-in and year-out.

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7 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Georgia's and tOSU's classes are showing that to be a sound strategy. I think we will be in for a bumpy ride as we wait things out. FSU, Miami, Florida, Tennessee and everyone else are going to be scrambling in the fall to complete their classes and prices that the players will command will be higher than whatever tOSU and Georgia are paying now.

If the price is set low then players can be poached towards the end of the cycle.  The Billy Bob’s of the world are in trouble.

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18 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Then ATM showed up for the 2022 class and went McKinley Jackson on the whole fucking list. They moved the whole bag game up several levels. They also didn't understand the future. Saban did, but didn't like his outlook. He went on the offensive with his whining about NIL and the portal but it's been mostly a fucking joke given his complete hypocrisy. Dabo Swinney has done the same bullshit.

Day and Smart just went out asking for as much money as possible. Oregon built a death star. We focused on setting and endowing a floor and invented the layer cake + charity model. USC raised for the portal, as did Ole Miss. Arkansas is following Oregon's model but they're Arkansas. Notre Dame, OU, Michigan, Tech and others are following UT's suit. It will all get there at Texas.

Is ATM sticking with their bag game and trying to cover it up by slapping a shiny "NIL" logo on it? Or are they actually starting to adjust now that they might sort of understand how this landscape is evolving? Obviously we saw how last cycle worked out for them, so I guess I'm not sure if that happened because they spent it all in '22 or if they were just behind on actual NIL and were trying to get the tires rolling mid cycle last season.

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55 minutes ago, tokamak said:

 

Feels like the "best" model is to just be Oregon or Miami and have a single billionaire donor who has both the money and the desire to be at the top of the food chain year-in and year-out.

Until that billionaire donor has his company fall apart a la John Ruiz. And then.. 

oopsie-oops.gif

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1 hour ago, tokamak said:

Agree that establishing a base will be very important, but $100k feels unrealistic. For a roster of 85 players, that requires ~35,000 people giving $20/mo in perpetuity. Maybe I'm way too pessimistic.

Feels like the "best" model is to just be Oregon or Miami and have a single billionaire donor who has both the money and the desire to be at the top of the food chain year-in and year-out.

“Ya but that would make it too easy and I would get too much sleep if this happened. What fun is that”- RGBIIIs liver and sanity

56 minutes ago, Mason Ramsey said:

Is ATM sticking with their bag game and trying to cover it up by slapping a shiny "NIL" logo on it? Or are they actually starting to adjust now that they might sort of understand how this landscape is evolving? Obviously we saw how last cycle worked out for them, so I guess I'm not sure if that happened because they spent it all in '22 or if they were just behind on actual NIL and were trying to get the tires rolling mid cycle last season.

@closetojumping knows better but they are trying to assemble the plane mid flight

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1 hour ago, Bevo said:

Georgia's and tOSU's classes are showing that to be a sound strategy. I think we will be in for a bumpy ride as we wait things out. FSU, Miami, Florida, Tennessee and everyone else are going to be scrambling in the fall to complete their classes and prices that the players will command will be higher than whatever tOSU and Georgia are paying now.

You're basing this statement on...the sanctity of a verbal commitment? Well that's a choice. I don't personally have a worldview where the class that's built won't have decommitments when competition comes in and beats the price. 

1 hour ago, tokamak said:

Agree that establishing a base will be very important, but $100k feels unrealistic. For a roster of 85 players, that requires ~35,000 people giving $20/mo in perpetuity. Maybe I'm way too pessimistic.

Feels like the "best" model is to just be Oregon or Miami and have a single billionaire donor who has both the money and the desire to be at the top of the food chain year-in and year-out.

Texas has a living alumni base of over 500k people. Actually I believe its closer to 550k. 35k represents 6 percent of our living alumni. But if you're willing to be that billionaire for us, we'll take that too. 

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26 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Texas has a living alumni base of over 500k people. Actually I believe its closer to 550k. 35k represents 6 percent of our living alumni. But if you're willing to be that billionaire for us, we'll take that too. 

That math really shows how easy this SHOULD be to set a baseline. If 6% of our alumni gave $20/month, we would have the most impactful NIL program in the country for building a full roster. Or if 3% gave $40/month ... or if everybody left $12 in the tip jar every time they walked into DKR.  Break it down however you want, and it's an insanely low amount of commitment from the alumni base that I'd bet 99.999% of them could contribute without batting an eye. Then you have the big money guys to handle the true studs, and you're essentially unbeatable. 

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5 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

That math really shows how easy this SHOULD be to set a baseline. If 6% of our alumni gave $20/month, we would have the most impactful NIL program in the country for building a full roster. Or if 3% gave $40/month ... or if everybody left $12 in the tip jar every time they walked into DKR.  Break it down however you want, and it's an insanely low amount of commitment from the alumni base that I'd bet 99.999% of them could contribute without batting an eye. Then you have the big money guys to handle the true studs, and you're essentially unbeatable. 

It never works like though. Only the fringe element will pay (a fraction of posters here and on the sub sites being a core of that fringe). The rest of the audience, fans and alums alike, are generally ignorant of the subject, which is understandable. Those who are aware tend to make the idiotic assumption that it's all already funded by anonymous giant donors. I think another reason why people work under that assumption in order to rationalize why they don't need to feel guilty about not participating. NOTE: I am not saying anyone should actually feel guilty at all. I'm talking about human behavior nonetheless.

3 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Has One Fund fundraising improved generally over the course of 2023?  Particularly across the low level (<$1000/year) and next tier up ($1000-$10000)?

It's growing monthly, but it isn't even vaguely close to where it needs to be now or in the future. Those who have fronted major early NIL are extremely fatigued. The monthly subscription business is a slow rise over time after an initial push. Advertising during sporting events will help on that front.

Finding a couple hundred folks who will donate between $10k and $50k annually is a high, high priority but will take years.

Finding multiple participants at the 6 digit and 7 digit levels, annually, is being worked too, but we've all talked about the problems with this group and some of their views on paying players. 

There are going to be numerous events announced and will be worked annually. These are expected to be primary routes for yearly raises. This work is being helmed by experts in that arena and has the full support of most of the coaching staffs on campus and the AD.

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Is this being strategized by matching roster positions with funding sources?  I would assume offensive skill positions can be funded by corporate $, which only leaves TE, OL, defense, and special teams to be funded by BMDs and fan collectives.  It sure seems like schools building endowments for their roster rather than living Hand to mouth will benefit greatly long term.

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6 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

It never works like though. Only the fringe element will pay (a fraction of posters here and on the sub sites being a core of that fringe).

I don't think you were actually speaking to me in your post, but yeah. That's why I emphasized "SHOULD" in my statement. I don't know what percentage of a data set is properly considered "the fringe," but <6% probably isn't too far off. 

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33 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

That math really shows how easy this SHOULD be to set a baseline. If 6% of our alumni gave $20/month, we would have the most impactful NIL program in the country for building a full roster. Or if 3% gave $40/month ... or if everybody left $12 in the tip jar every time they walked into DKR.  Break it down however you want, and it's an insanely low amount of commitment from the alumni base that I'd bet 99.999% of them could contribute without batting an eye. Then you have the big money guys to handle the true studs, and you're essentially unbeatable. 

I may not be the norm, but I would be 100% more likely to give $100 at a game than donate $20/mo.

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19 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

I don't think you were actually speaking to me in your post, but yeah. That's why I emphasized "SHOULD" in my statement. I don't know what percentage of a data set is properly considered "the fringe," but <6% probably isn't too far off. 

I know you understand it better than most. That considered, and maybe my POV is jaundiced by looking at digital funnel data and large usage and traffic numbers over the years, but fringe to me is 6% of 6%. That would be aspirational from here as a percentage of our fanbase that is giving.

The good news for everyone is there is still a lot of terrain to explore within the fanbase. We've covered 5% of the ground that can ultimately be covered. 

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44 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Has One Fund fundraising improved generally over the course of 2023?  Particularly across the low level (<$1000/year) and next tier up ($1000-$10000)?

Lol fuck no. I mean we are doing ok but literally attempting to crowd source a war chest is just impossible in how immediately it’s needed.

There are a ton of levels everyone can give at on texasonefund.org, personally if you (not you yourself skipper, I know you donate) watch Texas football and follow along closely enough to post on recruiting forums $40 a month should be pretty reasonable plus it’s tax deductible and comes with even additional perks!

10 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I may not be the norm, but I would be 100% more likely to give $100 at a game than donate $20/mo.

We are working on that through Learfield and even were the promoting sponsor for the spring game. We want recurring if possible, it was helps us balance the P&L more than sudden pops at events although they do help. 
 

the hardest part with all of this is the sole fact that people think it’s handled already. It’s not my problem cause Michael fucking Dell has it covered…couldn’t be further from the truth. There have been a handful of dudes (one in particular for football) that has poured enough resources into this that it would make you vomit. We need the average Texas fan to donate. I’m not a season ticket guy, I’m not a BMD, but everyone can give SOMETHING if they care about succeeding

CE5C4438-AE4C-4944-AB79-08DA97A5CC76.jpeg

7 minutes ago, Teamdirtyleg said:

We need a One Fund/HWH Kiosk on San Jacinto on game day.  Buy your $100 dollar koozie or t-shirts that says "I put my money where my mouth is, what about you?" or something much more clever.

I am all for poor shaming folks, no question

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I saw the sponsorship prices at the golf tournament and it looked to me like if they sold out their 4-somes and sponsorships that would be something like 3+ Million raised. Like 25k for a 4 some it looked like was the going rate if I saw that correctly?  Title sponsors like 500k and then a couple 250k type sponsorships and then some 100k and a bunch of 25 or 30k for team and party afterwards. 
 

seems to me like that’s a big ask but if they could sell it out cool.  But- what I would really think would be beneficial (in addition to this) is smaller tournaments around the state for specific sports and/or position rooms that the position coach is In charge of being there for. 
 

like- TE room is being done by Montgomery County Texas Exes and the monkey goes to the golf tournament.  I would think if you had the position coach and the backing of the exes you could raise 300-500k a pop. Like 2 4 man scramble teams per hole at 100 a person is 150k. 50k for hole sponsors (2k per hole)  and some other underwritten stuff. Now that I’m typing that maybe 300k more like it than anything else. 
once you do it once it pretty much should run itself. 
This a big state and there are lots of areas around it full of longhorn alums. I’d like to see how the big Tournament goes down- if they hit their goal and if so it seems like the template is there to make this a replicable deal on a smaller scale. Same with the Sark deal at the country club in houston- did that raise go how they imagined it would?  
 

I don’t know what the total number is for the football roster but if it’s 10M or less that doesn’t seem like too insurmountable a yearly lift. 
Obviously, the more monthly donors you have on repeat the better. I imagine this would be a topic of conversation at said golf tournaments and country club get togethers. 
 

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22 minutes ago, RGBIII said:

Lol fuck no. I mean we are doing ok but literally attempting to crowd source a war chest is just impossible in how immediately it’s needed.

There are a ton of levels everyone can give at on texasonefund.org, personally if you (not you yourself skipper, I know you donate) watch Texas football and follow along closely enough to post on recruiting forums $40 a month should be pretty reasonable plus it’s tax deductible and comes with even additional perks!

We are working on that through Learfield and even were the promoting sponsor for the spring game. We want recurring if possible, it was helps us balance the P&L more than sudden pops at events although they do help. 
 

the hardest part with all of this is the sole fact that people think it’s handled already. It’s not my problem cause Michael fucking Dell has it covered…couldn’t be further from the truth. There have been a handful of dudes (one in particular for football) that has poured enough resources into this that it would make you vomit. We need the average Texas fan to donate. I’m not a season ticket guy, I’m not a BMD, but everyone can give SOMETHING if they care about succeeding

CE5C4438-AE4C-4944-AB79-08DA97A5CC76.jpeg

I am all for poor shaming folks, no question

I'd be all for a small logo in the front of a t-shirt that said Texas One Fund and on the back had any appropriate artwork for Texas football.

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