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2023 Transfer Thread - Texas Capitalized, ATM Victimized


closetojumping

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11 minutes ago, C-Man said:

That's why I think there will some sort of formal governance put in place at some point.

I fail to see how that would even be remotely possible. The NCAA isn't going to step in and do it, because they are gutless and want nothing to do with this. How do you imagine any kind of governance would look? You think Haves like Oregon and Texas are going to limit ourselves to the resources of poorer schools? I certainly don't see that at all. 

I think the more likely scenario is that the free market settles things into some sort of equilibrium after another year or two. Look at what happened with Florida and their QB yesterday...they promised and can't pay. This is going to happen a few more times and lessons will be learned...by the schools and the players and their families. Which is why the way Texas has built our NIL program on the foundation of smart, LONG TERM, planning. 

I dont see how any governance would work, or is possible. But the NCAA's transfer rule changes yesterday already go a long, long way to stabilizing things in the medium term, IMO.   

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1 minute ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

The exodus at OSU doesn't just include players.  Derek Mason retiring rather than continuing as coach under Gundy.

 

I googled his age before I read the tweet...motherfucker is 53. That's arguably the prime of a football coach. But he's not retiring, he's taking a sabbatical. We'll see him on the sidelines again soon. But your original point is still valid, motherfucker decided to take an extended vacation than coach under Gundy and have his reputation tarnished by a team that's been gutted next season. 
 

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2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

There is more likely to ultimately be some loose collusion than there is formal governance. What players are discovering entering the portal is what we've discussed here - the grass is rarely greener if you're a starter (Worthy/Barron), rarely what it was in recruiting if you're a former highly rated guy (Blue), and an excellent option, same as always, if you're smothered on the depth chart (Ibrahim, etc.) or a smaller school player looking to step up after getting it done on the field. Just don't expect money beyond the first kind of player, and most big schools are working to match to retain those guys.

There's only so much money to go around, even for well-heeled alumni bases. ATM jerked the expectations up several standard deviations from the norm in HS recruiting and this cycle was hugely impact by that. That had a knock-on in the portal. We'll see what this next cycle for the both the spring portal and 2024 recruiting cycles look like for everyone. Texas fans should consider contributing whatever they can, because the big money can't and won't blindly do outsized work on this forever. $5/month helps and anything up from there is huge. 

 

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

I fail to see how that would even be remotely possible. The NCAA isn't going to step in and do it, because they are gutless and want nothing to do with this. How do you imagine any kind of governance would look? You think Haves like Oregon and Texas are going to limit ourselves to the resources of poorer schools? I certainly don't see that at all. 

I think the more likely scenario is that the free market settles things into some sort of equilibrium after another year or two. Look at what happened with Florida and their QB yesterday...they promised and can't pay. This is going to happen a few more times and lessons will be learned...by the schools and the players and their families. Which is why the way Texas has built our NIL program on the foundation of smart, LONG TERM, planning. 

I dont see how any governance would work, or is possible. But the NCAA's transfer rule changes yesterday already go a long, long way to stabilizing things in the medium term, IMO.   

Maybe I'm being very naive but I think what we could see is something that limits the wild, wild west allowing players to transfer without penalty year after year after year, always in search of Scotty's BBD. Let's say a kid commits to aggy and realizes he's made a HUGE mistake after Year 1. Kid gets one free do-over, a mulligan to go elsewhere without penalty. Or maybe somebody like Neyor is overlooked coming out of HS and shines at a place like Wyoming. He can cash in once on NIL and go to a blue-blood like Texas. Once that freebie is used, any subsequent move requires player to sit out a season. Maybe put in some language if the kid wants out and the school is looking to clear the space, they let him out without penalty. Again, I haven't really thought this through a bunch but I know the current system where you are not only recruiting HS kids but your current roster is a nightmare on many levels.

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2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I googled his age before I read the tweet...motherfucker is 53. That's arguably the prime of a football coach. But he's not retiring, he's taking a sabbatical. We'll see him on the sidelines again soon. But your original point is still valid, motherfucker decided to take an extended vacation than coach under Gundy and have his reputation tarnished by a team that's been gutted next season. 
 

Not sure what is going on up there in Stillwater but it looks bad, they have lost a ton of talent and I don't see them getting equal replacements in the portal. I think this is the beginning of the end for Gundy. They could be at the bottom of the Big 12 next year.

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3 minutes ago, C-Man said:

 

Maybe I'm being very naive but I think what we could see is something that limits the wild, wild west allowing players to transfer without penalty year after year after year, always in search of Scotty's BBD. Let's say a kid commits to aggy and realizes he's made a HUGE mistake after Year 1. Kid gets one free do-over, a mulligan to go elsewhere without penalty. Or maybe somebody like Neyor is overlooked coming out of HS and shines at a place like Wyoming. He can cash in once on NIL and go to a blue-blood like Texas. Once that freebie is used, any subsequent move requires player to sit out a season. Maybe put in some language if the kid wants out and the school is looking to clear the space, they let him out without penalty. Again, I haven't really thought this through a bunch but I know the current system where you are not only recruiting HS kids but your current roster is a nightmare on many levels.

The NCAA just made changes yesterday that will limit players from just transferring year after year. That's as far as it will go, and honestly that's probably as far as they NEED to go here, as the market will take care of the rest of things. 

But everything you just described isn't "Governance." That's not oversight. That isn't means-testing. That's literally what some of us have been talking about when we say the market is going to reach an equilibrium and move on from there as these things stabilize. You say Governance, and you're talking about rules, laws, oversight, etc. That isn't what this will be, man. 

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Just now, SydneyCarton said:

The NCAA just made changes yesterday that will limit players from just transferring year after year. That's as far as it will go, and honestly that's probably as far as they NEED to go here, as the market will take care of the rest of things. 

But everything you just described isn't "Governance." That's not oversight. That isn't means-testing. That's literally what some of us have been talking about when we say the market is going to reach an equilibrium and move on from there as these things stabilize. You say Governance, and you're talking about rules, laws, oversight, etc. That isn't what this will be, man. 

Lazy choice of words on my part. As I tried to illustrate, at some point the coaches and schools are going to realize no-rules-barred "collegiate free agency" is not sustainable and step in to make tweaks, albeit they will be tweaks that mainly serve the upper echelon of football programs. And I fully expect the teams that have historically cheated will continue to color outside the lines in order to gain advantages and will never get punished by the NCAA or any other regulating authority. But what we have now is not good for the sport. It might be good for today's players but not for the sport as a whole. (I say that with full realization that that the vast majority of college football players have been done wrong by college football for decades and decades.)

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