2022 Houston Rockets Offseason Thread - Lottery, Lottery, Lottery

[Rockethorn1978 6,153]

Lullzzzz

[HtownHorn 14,923]

1 minute ago, BigOrange1 said:

hopefully paolo goes in the top 2 that way one of chet or jabari is left at #3.

OKC is going to draft a guard.

[wildcat09 29,453]

There’s no chance Smith drops to 3, is there?

[LTtxfan 49,405]

1 minute ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

Lullzzzz

 

[BigOrange1 6,544]

1 minute ago, wildcat09 said:

There’s no chance Smith drops to 3, is there?

need orland or okc to fall in love with paolo.

[Wulaw Horn 19,249]

Fuck. We are taking Paolo aren’t we?  

[Make em eat Taco Bell 1,549]

this is a blessing in disguise, even though tanking did not achieve the ultimate #1 pick, because hopefully overrated Chet will be gone.  Banchero or Smith should be available.  Drafting Ivey (don't need yet another guard) or Chet would be an absolute waste.  They should trade the pick if Banchero/Smith are gone. 

[Serak The Preparer 3,436]

2 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

There’s no chance Smith drops to 3, is there?

Don't think so. Banchero is the x factor. I would be thrilled if Ivey drops though.

[Wulaw Horn 19,249]

1 minute ago, Serak The Preparer said:

Don't think so. Banchero is the x factor. I would be thrilled if Ivey drops though.

Ivey will be there at 3 without a doubt. He’s the guy I want but I don’t know if we will have the balls to take him. 

[Make em eat Taco Bell 1,549]

Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

Ivey will be there at 3 without a doubt. He’s the guy I want but I don’t know if we will have the balls to take him. 

why does Houston need another guard? Why do Rocket fans hate tall people?

[LTtxfan 49,405]

5 minutes ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

why does Houston need another guard? Why do Rocket fans hate tall people?

[Serak The Preparer 3,436]

2 minutes ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

why does Houston need another guard? Why do Rocket fans hate tall people?

Yes surveying the Warriors, Mavericks, Celtics, and Heat I definitely see teams centered around tall people. Clearly the recipe for success in the NBA.

If Smith is there at 3 I happily take him but I don't think he will be. I'm scared of Chet. The Rockets aren't good enough to turn down really good players and I think I've will be a really good player year 1.

[Wulaw Horn 19,249]

2 minutes ago, Serak The Preparer said:

Yes surveying the Warriors, Mavericks, Celtics, and Heat I definitely see teams centered around tall people. Clearly the recipe for success in the NBA.

If Smith is there at 3 I happily take him but I don't think he will be. I'm scared of Chet. The Rockets aren't good enough to turn down really good players and I think I've will be a really good player year 1.

I mean Chet being there at 3 would be my wet dream, but I don’t see it.  

[Loch Ness Monster 3,533]

Not sure I see a Lebron or Tim Duncan sitting at #1.

1st overall picks still in the playoffs: Andrew Wiggins 

2nd overall picks still in the playoffs: James Wiseman (injured), Victor Oladipo (role player)

3rd overall picks still in the playoffs: Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Otto Porter Jr, Al Horford 

[Rockethorn1978 6,153]

What’s the knock on Banchero? I’ve read multiple places he’s gonna be a star. But everyone here hates him so what’s the deal?

[TonyTexas 10,571]

1 minute ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

What’s the knock on Banchero? I’ve read multiple places he’s gonna be a star. But everyone here hates him so what’s the deal?

Not a high effort guy which really shows up on defense. 

[perfectchaos007 6,716]

Bronze medal ain’t bad. At least we’re on the podium 

[Rockethorn1978 6,153]

1 minute ago, TonyTexas said:

Not a high effort guy which really shows up on defense. 

I thought maybe it’s because his name was Paolo 

[HtownHorn 14,923]

13 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

What’s the knock on Banchero? I’ve read multiple places he’s gonna be a star. But everyone here hates him so what’s the deal?

His defense sucks because his lateral quickness is nonexistent. Rockets already have a player like him in Sengun. That's why Smith and Holmgren were the best fits, they are already very good defensive players that fit well with Sengun. I think Smith falls.

 

Orlando already has 4-5 bigs. I could see them taking Ivey. As far as guards go, they have Suggs and former #1 overall Fultz, that are worth a shit and on the same development timeline as the rest of their roster.

OKC is also as likely to take Sharpe as they are one of the 3 bigs.

Edited May 18, 2022 by HtownHorn

[Rockethorn1978 6,153]

Good news is we will be in the lottery and a top 3 pick again next year.

[billfromlaketravis 11,605]

Not ideal. I’d draft the best player available.  Hopefully it’s Smith, if not, then Ivey. 
 

Would the Magic be looking to flip Bamba if they draft Smith? If so, the rockets need to get to the front of the line. 
 

 

Edited May 18, 2022 by billfromlaketravis

[cmontexas 3,306]

12 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

What’s the knock on Banchero? I’ve read multiple places he’s gonna be a star. But everyone here hates him so what’s the deal?

Im super high in Banchero I like him more than anyone in this draft. His defense needs work but hes an absolute bucket from 18 feet in. And he's 19 with good size and a competitor. I'll wait for his D to come around or hide him while he rolls out of bed and grabs 20 a game

[billfromlaketravis 11,605]

15 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

His defense sucks because his lateral quickness is nonexistent. Rockets already have a player like him in Sengun. That's why Smith and Holmgren were the best fits, they are already very good defensive players that fit well with Sengun. I think Smith falls.

 

Orlando already has 4-5 bigs. I could see them taking Ivey. As far as guards go, they have Suggs and former #1 overall Fultz, that are worth a shit and on the same development timeline as the rest of their roster.

OKC is also as likely to take Sharpe as they are one of the 3 bigs.

Wish it into existence man. 

[billfromlaketravis 11,605]

So Orlando and OKC need guards. Where there’s a will, there’s a way. 
 

[Fud 9,562]

Odds that Jabari falls to us?

[BigOrange1 6,544]

i've already talked myself into banchero.  if one of the other bigs is there at #3 i'll be pleasantly surprised, but i'm fine with banchero.

[Aqua Buddha 14,654]

40 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

So Orlando and OKC need guards. Where there’s a will, there’s a way. 
 

I've seen multiple posts about this.  Okie City does not need guards.  They literally have no big men worth a shit.  They have SGA, Dort, Giddey, and Trey Mann.  They're taking a big.

Orlando is the one that needs guards.  Doubtful they'll take one, though.

Edited May 18, 2022 by Aqua Buddha

[BigOrange1 6,544]

for shits and grins though, would you do either of these deals?

 

[ChickenSandwich 9,856]

Wood for a pick swap with OKC. 

[Rockethorn1978 6,153]

I want to trade wood and Gordon for future first rounders not more guys. 
 

and find someone to take wall.

[TonyTexas 10,571]

Stone is probably relieved by this result. He won’t have to make a decision. He simply can take whichever of Holmgren/Smith/ Banchero is left. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,249]

1 minute ago, TonyTexas said:

Stone is probably relieved by this result. He won’t have to make a decision. He simply can take whichever of Holmgren/Smith/ Banchero is left. 

That is certainly the last way to look at it (not you- I think there is a LOT of truth to what you are saying). 

[Rockethorn1978 6,153]

There are red flags with all 3 guys. I don’t believe there is a grand slam for sure thing with any of the 3. Chet is a injury risk because he weighs 77 lbs. if we took Banchero we would be fine.

[The Earl of Texas 3,180]

I think Chet is way tougher than he looks, not an injury risk and he’ll fill out when working out becomes his job.

I think Bacnhero is a great fit with Green, I’d love it. Play styles would be very complimentary.

[Fud 9,562]

12 hours ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

What’s the knock on Banchero? I’ve read multiple places he’s gonna be a star. But everyone here hates him so what’s the deal?

Lack of foot speed makes him a poor matchup defensively against any perimeter player he switches onto, and he's not a rim protector so he's potentially a net negative playing at the five

Terrific offensive player though. Excellent passer. His offensive game at Duke was mostly iso and post-ups, so he probably needs some off the ball and pick and roll (both as the ball hander and screener), but those things are doable. He's not an NBA three point shooter yet, but his shot looks good and he projects to be a fine shooter from there

The way the NBA is going, your defense will get exposed against the contenders, and he'll have to work his ass off to be average there, and he'll have to be outstanding on offense to justify having him on the court in high leverage situations

Julius Randle is a popular comp for him right now, but I think he's a level higher offensively due to his passing/playmaking ability. Maybe think of him as more of a upper-middle class man's Chris Webber on offense 

[Fud 9,562]

Some of the players I like at #17 are starting to get mocked before then; Sochan (not sure he gets out of the top ten, and OKC is seemingly his floor), Dieng (floor seems to be OKC at #12 if Sochan is off the board), and Daniels (teams are starting to realize the value of a long defensive first switchable point guard, even if his shot is broken) 

Eason remains the most likely pick at that spot, and I'd be happy with that addition, but there's a chance he might go a pick or two before

Hoping for centers and shooting/combo guards to go before #17, which would hopefully push the more interesting wings or Daniels down. Or maybe they'll just take a flyer on Brown, who has the pure talent to go top ten, even if he hasn't put it together and tends to disappear from games 

[Fud 9,562]

There are some interesting lotto ticket flyers, although I'm not sure I'd go with any of them at #17 if Eason is on the board. If you really trust your development, like a Miami Heat type of staff, then this guys are pretty intriguing 

Jovic- a 6'10 Serbian perimeter player who can shoot, but can he guard anyone? Can he get to the rim against any perimeter player in the NBA?

Brown- 6'8 wing who has the tools and skills to go in the 6-10 range, but he frequently disapeared from games if he bothered showing up at all, and when the games really mattered, Baylor didn't play him in crunch time

Baldwin- 5* big wing who went to Milwaukee to play for his dad, and played more like a 3*. This would be betting on the pedigree similar to the Ziare Williams pick from last year, which paid off

Miller- a guard who grew from 6'4 to 6'11 whose defense and basketball IQ are unknown due to the level of comp, which was more or less high level YMCA ball, although he has some apparently shooting and ball handling skills

[HtownHorn 14,923]

Tari Eason's shooting improvement from freshmen to sophomore was incredibly good. Already a plus defender, I like him at #17.

[BigOrange1 6,544]

recent history at pick #3 is pretty encouraging:

2016 - jaylen brown

2017 - jayson tatum

2018 - luka doncic

2019 - rj barrett

2020 - lamelo ball

2021 - evan mobley

[Fud 9,562]

 

[TonyTexas 10,571]

Looking at the post-lottery mocks, it seems likely that the Rockets end up with Banchero. But it’s practically a coin flip on the ranking of the top 3 by the analysts. One thing is obvious. Getting a top 3 pick was critical. 

[Aqua Buddha 14,654]

11 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Looking at the post-lottery mocks, it seems likely that the Rockets end up with Banchero. But it’s practically a coin flip on the ranking of the top 3 by the analysts. One thing is obvious. Getting a top 3 pick was critical. 

On his podcast, Bill Simmons went through the lottery live and had commentary on each team but really the top 3.  Him and the others echoed your statement.  Lot of interchanging with the top 3 teams/players.  They could easily see either of the three teams taking either of the three players.  They seemed to think Jabari would do better in OKC, though, because Houston is just a bunch of dudes firing up shots.  They settled on Chet going #1, maybe Banchero #2 but that was 50/50 with Smith.

They also seem to think Banchero has the most long term upside and he has an NBA body now.  Said in OKC with Giddey and SGA running pick and rolls, Smith could easily score 20 a game his rookie year.  Chet they think goes to Orlando because that GM took Giannis or something.  

Yes, getting in the top 3 was critical and the teams involved all need bigs.  

Only concern was Chet's injury potential but in all fairness, he's never really been injured before but that wasn't against NBA dudes.

[Fud 9,562]

Another interesting potential 3&D wing

 

[Fud 9,562]

Excellent analysis from Hollinger

Spoiler

Are you watching the playoffs?

Are you watching them and thinking about what they might mean for this year’s draft?

We’re in a little bit of a weird place, right? The consensus top three players are fours and fives, but all the value is in big wings. Unlike a year ago, there isn’t an easy pathway to sorting out the top of the draft based on positional value. That ballhandling, playmaking 6-7 wing every team craves isn’t out there at the top of this draft. Maybe a Cade Cunningham or Scottie Barnes is hiding in the weeds, but if so, it’s much less obvious this time around.

Similarly, we have some good bigs in this draft, but we don’t have an Evan Mobley-type, whose switchability is so obvious that it would allay concerns about the decreasing value of centers in the postseason. Conversely, in a world where either having a P.J. Tucker-type body or just being a 6-6 guy who doesn’t suck has exponentially more value in the games that matter most, a lot of energy must necessarily tilt toward finding those types of players in the draft.

The top three players in this draft are bigs, with one being a true rim-protecting five. At least two other traditional centers are on every lottery board, and if you made a consensus mock draft right now, you’d see a generous sprinkling of players shorter than 6-5 as well. With centers in particular, we run into issues of diminishing returns. You can play one center, but never more; meanwhile, you can play as many 6-7 guys as you want in today’s NBA, provided at least one of them can dribble.

Despite that, teams continue to overvalue taking big centers at the top of the draft. We’ve had 18 centers drafted in the top six picks since 2002; only three of them have played in an All-Star Game, and in the case of Chris Kaman, we’re defining this term extremely broadly. Should Mobley and Deandre Ayton eventually make it, we’ll be at five. Woohoo.

Mobley proves the exception to the rule — a 7-foot center who plays as a perimeter player, particularly on defense. Meanwhile the best offensive center in the league (Nikola Jokić) was picked 46th, the best defensive center (Rudy Gobert) was picked 27th, and this year’s other 7-foot All-Stars (Jarrett Allen and Joel Embiid) were picked 22nd and third respectively.

On the flip side, we’ve had a perimeter All-Star selected in the top five of every draft since 2010, if we assume one of Cunningham or Barnes breaks through soon. And we’re on a stretch of 20 straight drafts in the top six. A couple of them stretch the definition of “All-Star” a bit (Andrew Wiggins was voted in, and Devin Harris and D’Angelo Russell each made it once), but most were legit.

Overall, we’re talking about 27 All-Star perimeter players from 19 drafts, and 23 of them were no-doubt-about-it, All-Star-caliber players. Despite the zest for size at the top of the draft, most of these stars weren’t that big; only Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram were taller than 6-7.

So … do you want to pick from the bin that provided 27 All-Stars or the bin that gave us three?

I bring this up for two fairly obvious reasons. First, I think teams are still guilty of overdrafting centers — James Wiseman, Mo Bamba, Dragan Bender and Jahlil Okafor would be recent examples. Second, the consensus top three players in this particular class are all bigs, with perhaps the most highly touted one a 7-1 center.

So here’s the question … is Chet Holmgren (or Jabari Smith or Paolo Banchero) such an advantage at their positions that you’d prefer taking them to the chance of getting an All-Star perimeter player?

The flip side of this, of course, is what All-Star perimeter player? Have you been scouting some other NCAA, Hollinger? Teams would feel better about following my big-shunning strategy if there were wart-free wing options. This is, perhaps, not that kind of draft. Particularly in that sweet spot around 6-6 or 6-7, the talent pool is not safe for diving.

Wait, it gets worse. Two other issues underlie this year’s draft. First, this is one of the worst international draft classes in memory. Only two players have a realistic chance of going in the top 20, and neither played well even in relatively weak overseas leagues. Second, there is an absolutely staggering number of meh shooting guards for teams to sort through. We may set some kind of record for 6-4 guys who end up in France; several of them have been getting lottery buzz, for some reason, but I don’t have more than a couple in my top 20.

Nonetheless, teams must press on with the task of selecting the best talent and determining the best positional fits. And there is actually talent in this draft; it was harder to winnow my list down to 20 or so than I expected. It’s just hiding in some different places than you might have originally expected.

 

[Loch Ness Monster 3,533]

Goes along with this tweet:

[cmontexas 3,306]

Bam and Horford are both 6'9 its not like every team is rolling out 5 guards

[HtownHorn 14,923]

So Ivey and Eason it is.

 

Ivey-Green-Porter-Eason-Sengun

Edited May 18, 2022 by HtownHorn

[Rockethorn1978 6,153]

I wouldn’t be surprised if they took Ivey. I hope they don’t though.

[TonyTexas 10,571]

10 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if they took Ivey. I hope they don’t though.

If they were picking 4 or 5 then maybe. Given their needs and with one of the 3 bigs available, I’d be absolutely shocked. 

[Loch Ness Monster 3,533]

1 hour ago, cmontexas said:

Bam and Horford are both 6'9 its not like every team is rolling out 5 guards

Which is perfect for the modern game.

Usually gets ugly for the majority of 7 footers when they get involved in switches on defense against small ball lineups or are asked to defend the out to the corner 3.