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2022 Houston Rockets Offseason Thread - Lottery, Lottery, Lottery

BigOrange1

By BigOrange1
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BigOrange1
BigOrange1

it means the rockets won't do something dumb like sign wood to an extension which makes it a win.  maybe they look to package 17 and 26 to move up a little?

billfromlaketravis
billfromlaketravis

If the Astros hold on to the a 3 run lead in the 9th, this is a damn near perfect day to be a Horns/Houston fan. Oh well, 90% is still an A. 

HtownHorn
HtownHorn

Getting Bamba for the MLE isn't going to affect anyone's development, nor will it have a negative effect on the Rockets cap. They are going to have $80M to spend next year in a really shitty FA year.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19070

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9 hours ago, BigOrange1 said:

 

I have been banging the drums for one more tank,  keep that 80 million cap clear, and draft in the top 5-7 next year for 2 years now. 
the one draw back to that strategy is the list of guys that are FA next summer isn’t great. 
What would you think about bringing in Ayton this year on the fun or mini max, and is there a way to do that in our present reality. Sign and trade with Eric Gordon and ??? to make numbers match and then a couple draft picks?  

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Pimphand

Pimphand 5755

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11 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Figured he’d want to get to LA before Irving has the chance.  

Once Kyrie opted in the sign and trade scenarios went out the window.  At this point I expect the Nets to trade him at the deadline if they are able to.

Upcoming draft assets/swaps

From Wizards:
2023 first-round pick is lottery protected conveys to
2024 first-round pick is 1-12 protected conveys to
2025 first-found pick is 1-10 protected conveys to
2026 first-round pick is 1-8 protected conveys to
2026 & 2027 second-round pick

From Nets:
2023 first-round pick swap
2024 first-round pick unprotected
2025 first-round pick swap
2026 first-round pick unprotected
2027 first-round pick swap

To Thunder:
2024 first-round pick, protected 1-4
2025 swap, 1-20 protected
2026 first-round pick, protected 1-4

So for 2023 the odds are high the Wizards will be in the lottery so that pick will convey into the future.  The first round pick swap with the Nets is likely moot because I think the Rockets have one more year of shit to get through before they start to turn the corner.  Obviously 2024 is where things will start to get interesting.  Hopefully by then the Nets are in full meltdown mode and also by then hopefully the Rockets have turned the corner and so if the Rockets have to send their first round pick to OKC we at least still have a good draft pick from the Nets.

Hopefully something will make Kyrie meltdown during the season making him completely untradable at the deadline and then during the 2023 offseason Durant demands out.

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Dutchrudder

Dutchrudder 11139

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I think Simmons is the X factor for the Nets.  If he doesn't want to play, or continues to have "back issues" that team will implode. They can't do shit in the postseason without him. The Rockets need that team to rot from within, and Ben Simmons is the catalyst to make that happen. Gonna be fun to watch, but either way, I think Kyrie is gone next season.  If they re-sign him, they will have 140+ million wrapped up in KD, Kyrie, Simmons and fucking Joe Harris.

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Murfdogg21

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1 hour ago, Pimphand said:

Upcoming draft assets/swaps

From Wizards:
2023 first-round pick is lottery protected conveys to
2024 first-round pick is 1-12 protected conveys to
2025 first-found pick is 1-10 protected conveys to
2026 first-round pick is 1-8 protected conveys to
2026 & 2027 second-round pick

So for 2023 the odds are high the Wizards will be in the lottery so that pick will convey into the future.  The first round pick swap with the Nets is likely moot because I think the Rockets have one more year of shit to get through before they start to turn the corner. 

I’m pretty sure we traded this future Wizards asset to OKC as part of the deal to draft Sengun last year. 
 

In all likelihood we will lose our 2024 pick to OKC, so it would be super if the ‘23-24 Nets suck and we still get a very good pick while our ‘21 and ‘22 draft talent is just hitting its stride. 

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Pimphand

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4 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Key that OKC doesn't get the best of the 3 between us, them, and brooklyn in 2025. So, lets say Brooklyn is Top 10, and Houston in the teens, and OKC in the 20s, We can swap the 20s for Top 10.

Correct..... Without a doubt the best course of action is a Bkn implosion and thankfully their hopes and dreams hinge on two of the flakiest NBA all stars in NBA history and a 3rd future hall of famer that is BFFs with one of the all stars that the team wants to part ways with at any cost.

It's setting up to be good unless Simmons & Kyrie regress away from the mean next season

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BigOrange1

BigOrange1 6440

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22 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I have been banging the drums for one more tank,  keep that 80 million cap clear, and draft in the top 5-7 next year for 2 years now. 
the one draw back to that strategy is the list of guys that are FA next summer isn’t great. 
What would you think about bringing in Ayton this year on the fun or mini max, and is there a way to do that in our present reality. Sign and trade with Eric Gordon and ??? to make numbers match and then a couple draft picks?  

i like ayton, but i think i'd rather just roll with bamba and stick to the plan of losing and developing next year.  ayton isn't going to turn them into a playoff team, but he could win them a few losable games and decrease their lottery odds.  

the FA class next year isn't that great, but the rockets will be perfectly setup for the next big time guy with a high salary who wants to be traded.  we've come this far, i'd prefer just to play out the last year and see what things look like this time one year from now.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19070

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3 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

i like ayton, but i think i'd rather just roll with bamba and stick to the plan of losing and developing next year.  ayton isn't going to turn them into a playoff team, but he could win them a few losable games and decrease their lottery odds.  

the FA class next year isn't that great, but the rockets will be perfectly setup for the next big time guy with a high salary who wants to be traded.  we've come this far, i'd prefer just to play out the last year and see what things look like this time one year from now.

Probably so. But I wouldn’t hate Ayton coming over. Not sure about Bamba. I assume you are talking MLE? 

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BigOrange1

BigOrange1 6440

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yeah, i think they should give him the full MLE for 2-3 years.  it won't really affect next year's cap space all that much and it's taking a flyer on a guy i think would fit in well with what we have.  am i being a partial homer as he's a horn?  probably, but i really do think he'd nicely compliment sengun as the other half of the center rotation and he wouldn't come at a big price.

don't get me wrong, i'd probably be here celebrating if they somehow turned gordon and some non-premium picks into ayton, but i do think it accelerates things a bit and i'm all in on losing and developing for one more year.  they've pretty much nailed the rebuild thus far and i'd like to see them complete the project.

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14684

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Getting Bamba for the MLE isn't going to affect anyone's development, nor will it have a negative effect on the Rockets cap. They are going to have $80M to spend next year in a really shitty FA year. Sengun isn't playing 48 minutes a game, and he's also not likely to play in all 82 games either. It's ok to have competent guys competing for playing time to help development.

I would trade Milwaukee's pick to ensure the Rockets got him.

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BigOrange1

BigOrange1 6440

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17 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Getting Bamba for the MLE isn't going to affect anyone's development, nor will it have a negative effect on the Rockets cap. They are going to have $80M to spend next year in a really shitty FA year. Sengun isn't playing 48 minutes a game, and he's also not likely to play in all 82 games either. It's ok to have competent guys competing for playing time to help development.

 

this is 100% spot on.  every word of it.

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HtownHorn

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24 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

i don't really care about tate so i hope they don't sign him to some ridiculous deal.

Yep, he's a JAG that is going to take playing time away from better players because Silas gonna  Silas.

Nwaba, Matthews, and Tate all have no place on this team this season.

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Dutchrudder

Dutchrudder 11139

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56 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

there is nothing really wrong with tate, i just don't see him as playing any sort of meaningful role on this team when they are ready to start winning again.  because of that, i'd rather not sign him up for the next 4 years at significant money.

I agree. I think he would have been more useful as a 1.8m expiring contract for this season.  I guess it depends on what they give him and the options. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19070

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Durant in Phoenix would be fun. I wonder what the nets plan is/ if they are going to blow it up or try to stay good?

I ask because they could trade Kyrie, Durant and Simmons for 3 quarters and a dime player wise, or they could go pure draft pick packages for them.  Obviously they have no benefit to be bad bc of us owning their draft capital, but they might value future picks more than current dudes.

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HtownHorn

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15 minutes ago, Tylerocks said:

I mean, you need bench guys.

He's a great bench guy.

And, while he is a JAG, he's a valuable person to have off the bench.

Houston fans notoriously love those "blue collar" types.

Garuba and Martin should also get more PT than Tate. The Rockets don't need to waste any of their MLE on Tate.

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BigOrange1

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1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Durant in Phoenix would be fun. I wonder what the nets plan is/ if they are going to blow it up or try to stay good?

I ask because they could trade Kyrie, Durant and Simmons for 3 quarters and a dime player wise, or they could go pure draft pick packages for them.  Obviously they have no benefit to be bad bc of us owning their draft capital, but they might value future picks more than current dudes.

i like durant in phoenix too and hope it happens.  

and yeah, we definitely want the nets to trade kd for a picks based package rather than a decent young player based package.

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