2022 Tropical Storm and Hurricane Thread

[Hate 20,146]

Some models are hinting at a quick spin-up in the Bay of Campeche next week. 

 

[Wally Fairway 5,587]

Get back to me when Frankie, or phdhorn has something to say about the tropics

[shadow_operative2.0 16,030]

Hate clearly got tired of begging in his drunk thread. 

[Stella Link 534]

1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

Get back to me when Frankie, (aka phdhorn) has something to say about the tropics

fify

[Hate 20,146]

1 hour ago, shadow_operative2.0 said:

Hate clearly got tired of begging in his drunk thread. 

[Mother mopar 3,324]

This is always one of my favorite threads on the Surly.

[jdhorn92 1,558]

@Hate...Im not seeing it, what am i missing here boss? As a gulf coast resident, i watch this stuff pretty closely

 

[Hate 20,146]

[mention=22]Hate[/mention]...Im not seeing it, what am i missing here boss? As a gulf coast resident, i watch this stuff pretty closely
 

The model goes out to June 2. The NHC only forecasts 5 days out on that map.

[Hate 20,146]

Euro model for the next week. The Euro has not done a great job with tropical systems over the last couple of years. 

 

[InkaUtexas 26,158]

SEC SEC SEC. 

[Dewey 3,294]

O/U on Louisiana set at 3.5

[Stella Link 534]

3 hours ago, Dewey said:

O/U on Louisiana set at 3.5

Looks like it will be targeting the New Orleans area. 

Get the Dome ready again.  That means MORE evacuees will be coming to Houston.  

[Hate 20,146]

26 minutes ago, Stella Link said:

Looks like it will be targeting the New Orleans area. 

Get the Dome ready again.  That means MORE evacuees will be coming to Houston.  

[phdhorn 6,224]

1) right on time. These things, always, always spin up at the beginning of hurricane season in the southern Gulf. One of these is almost always the A or B storm of hurricane season.

2) these never, ever go into Texas, once in a blue moon far south Texas.

 

[texasdago 7,580]

Apparently the May models suck.  

[phdhorn 6,224]

Agatha went quickly from TS to C1 overnight in the Pacific.

But - it's going to be an Atlantic hurricane once it passes over Mexico (will devolve, then re-strengthen, and head N/NW).  Likely destination not sure but possibly across the Caribbean into Florida or whatnot.  Chances of a NW turn into TX right now low.

[elfenix 34,336]

On 5/24/2022 at 8:26 PM, Hate said:

Euro model for the next week. The Euro has not done a great job with tropical systems over the last couple of years. 

 

 

13 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Agatha went quickly from TS to C1 overnight in the Pacific.

But - it's going to be an Atlantic hurricane once it passes over Mexico (will devolve, then re-strengthen, and head N/NW).  Likely destination not sure but possibly across the Caribbean into Florida or whatnot.  Chances of a NW turn into TX right now low.

guess NW floriduh will know who to blame for that one

[rage-a-holic 4,482]

2 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Agatha went quickly from TS to C1 overnight in the Pacific.

But - it's going to be an Atlantic hurricane once it passes over Mexico (will devolve, then re-strengthen, and head N/NW).  Likely destination not sure but possibly across the Caribbean into Florida or whatnot.  Chances of a NW turn into TX right now low.

I'm loving this. It's gonna dump a ton of water on Puebla.

[Armybrat 40,919]

Son & his wife are in Cancun until Wednesday.

Any chance of it affecting that area?

[rage-a-holic 4,482]

2 hours ago, Armybrat said:

Son & his wife are in Cancun until Wednesday.

Any chance of it affecting that area?

Highly unlikely.

[Mother mopar 3,324]

guess NW floriduh will know who to blame for that one

Sure cause why not. We've had rain all week here (FWB) and it's already saturated to the point of minor street flooding. Might as well kick the season off.

[Stella Link 534]

QUESTION:  Who the Hell names their kid Agatha these days?   Didn't that name die off in the early 1900s??

And why is the hurricane center using it?  Can't they think of any other "A"-names for a hurricane??

(Just my Tuesday after Memorial Day rant)....

[InkaUtexas 26,158]

2 minutes ago, Stella Link said:

QUESTION:  Who the Hell names their kid Agatha these days?   Didn't that name die off in the early 1900s??

And why is the hurricane center using it?  Can't they think of any other "A"-names for a hurricane??

(Just my Tuesday after Memorial Day rant)....

I like the name hurricane asshole tbh. 

[Brisketexan 105,402]

10 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I like the name hurricane asshole tbh. 

You JUST beat me to the punch, you SOB.

[InkaUtexas 26,158]

5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

You JUST beat me to the punch, you SOB.

Development dude out lawyering the lawyer. A good day for all.

Might need a beer for that. Well and I hate them. Lived though a few. Never fun. 

[atomheartbevo 89,811]

21 minutes ago, Stella Link said:

QUESTION:  Who the Hell names their kid Agatha these days?   Didn't that name die off in the early 1900s??

And why is the hurricane center using it?  Can't they think of any other "A"-names for a hurricane??

(Just my Tuesday after Memorial Day rant)....

[Gatorubet 30,321]

QUESTION:  Who the Hell names their kid Agatha these days?   Didn't that name die off in the early 1900s??
And why is the hurricane center using it?  Can't they think of any other "A"-names for a hurricane??
(Just my Tuesday after Memorial Day rant)....

Agatha dissed by a Stella

[AUS-97HORN 11,824]

5 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

I like the name hurricane asshole tbh. 

 

5 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

You JUST beat me to the punch, you SOB.

[Brisketexan 105,402]

So, saw someone mention this quite long-range possibility for the June 15-20th timeframe....

That projection has it as a Cat 3.

LONG time out.  But, you know, fuckery for Texas, so seems relevant.

[Updawg 2,286]

Are you crazy. Has the heat already got you


There is no way. That will go to east Tx/LA and we will get the dry hot ass side

[Hate 20,146]

It will sit offshore of Houston and drench the city again. It’s been a while since we’ve had a flood.

[Bevo&Pevo 5,221]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

So, saw someone mention this quite long-range possibility for the June 15-20th timeframe....

That projection has it as a Cat 3.

LONG time out.  But, you know, fuckery for Texas, so seems relevant.

We could set up some odds on location, wind speed, rain fall amounts.  Make storm season a little more interesting.

Edited June 8, 2022 by Bevo&Pevo

[Js1 85,590]

20 minutes ago, Hate said:

It will sit offshore of Houston and French the city again. It’s been a while since we’ve had a flood.

We’re gonna get Frenched? I hope it buys us dinner first 

[Hate 20,146]

We’re gonna get Frenched? I hope it buys us dinner first 

Drinks. Dinner would require a little more than frenching.

[InkaUtexas 26,158]

49 minutes ago, Bevo&Pevo said:

We could set up some odds on location, wind speed, rain fall amounts.  Make storm season a little more interesting.

This man fucks. 

[NorthLoop 14,250]

13 hours ago, Updawg said:

Are you crazy. Has the heat already got you


There is no way. That will go to east Tx/LA and we will get the dry hot ass side

Yup. Wunderground already knows. 

[Dewey 3,294]

Not saying it won't happen, hopefully it doesn't, but every year these come out. 

 

 

[Rip76 4,962]

Haha.

Yeah, no.

 

[Orange&White 5,539]

16 minutes ago, Rip76 said:

Haha.

Yeah, no.

 

Normally I would agree and scoff at a prediction like this. However, in this particular case it is far more likely due to the fact that I have a Golf trip scheduled in Houston that Friday through Sunday.

[texasdago 7,580]

Yeah, it would happen, put us on the dry side and make us even more miserable.  Meanwhile Lake Charles would be screwed again.  Sounds about right.

[Hate 20,146]

Just about all of the models are now "seeing" a possible TS next week.  The Euro, Icon, and GFS all see it as a result of a weak cold front that stalls over Texas before dying in the GOM.  I'd welcome a TS at this point just to experience any kind of weather other than sunny and hot.

 

Edited June 21, 2022 by Hate

[Jshep34 2,321]

Id love some rain. Just not the winds or flooding. Anything to break up the heat cycle

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[pearlandhorn 3,274]

annnnnnd it's gone.

[Eastwood 4,394]

That would be worst case scenario for SATX/ATX. A storm taking that angle would just drag all the remaining moisture out of us and leave us with an even hotter and drier forecast. 

[Trey3216 15,371]

18 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

That would be worst case scenario for SATX/ATX. A storm taking that angle would just drag all the remaining moisture out of us and leave us with an even hotter and drier forecast. 

Yep.  The driest part of the state would absolutely scorch under that scenario.  We need a storm to hit just north of S. Padre island on a westward trajectory. 

[Hate 20,146]

The initial models I saw had the system begin about at the border with Mexico and move its way up the coast. We’ll see if the more recent models still show that.

[Brisketexan 105,402]

12 minutes ago, Hate said:

The initial models I saw had the system begin about at the border with Mexico and move its way up the coast. We’ll see if the more recent models still show that.

Find the model that makes the hot and dry parts of the state even hotter and drier, and the wet SE flood like a motherfucker for the 10th time in the past 10 years, and that's the model to bet on.

[The Ace of Aces 5,194]

With that relentless high parked there, no storm is sniffing the Texas coastline until that thing moves (and there is no sign of it, hence the 60+ 100 degree summer ahead)

[staboner 4,988]

paging battleshiptexan to the red surly hurricane phone

[Hate 20,146]

We have invest 94L out in the open Atlantic.  Apparently, some models are blowing this up over the next several days.  It's going through almost no wind shear and the sea surface temps are more than enough to support rapid development.  It is worth watching, especially for a June storm.