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2022 Tropical Storm and Hurricane Thread

Hate

By Hate
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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Hate said:

unknown.png

Intensity models:
image.png.daec1e11df11eb719a9e45e1dc0a2524.png

Missus and I are taking a quickie trip to Cancun 2nd-4th.  I hereby ORDER all inclement weather out of the Northeastern Mexico coast.

As for this thing, 'cane season is off to a S-L-O-W start.  A VERY slow start.  However it should start to pick up.  That big high that's been causing all the grief, meandering back/forth through essentially the entire southern United States is probably hindering development in the Gulf (which is where most of our June-early July storms happen.  The long-trackers don't get going until mid-July or so).

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Hate

Hate 20104

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Just about every weather model is on board with a a tropical system off the coast next week.  It remains to be seen if it closes and reaches official storm status, but at least there will be some drought relief for parts of Texas next week.

file.php?id=19208&t=1

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Steel Shank

Steel Shank 9417

Posted
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5 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Intensity models:
image.png.daec1e11df11eb719a9e45e1dc0a2524.png

Missus and I are taking a quickie trip to Cancun 2nd-4th.  I hereby ORDER all inclement weather out of the Northeastern Mexico coast.

As for this thing, 'cane season is off to a S-L-O-W start.  A VERY slow start.  However it should start to pick up.  That big high that's been causing all the grief, meandering back/forth through essentially the entire southern United States is probably hindering development in the Gulf (which is where most of our June-early July storms happen.  The long-trackers don't get going until mid-July or so).

aight

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Rip76

Rip76 4918

Posted
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6 hours ago, Hate said:

Just about every weather model is on board with a a tropical system off the coast next week.  It remains to be seen if it closes and reaches official storm status, but at least there will be some drought relief for parts of Texas next week.

file.php?id=19208&t=1

No Euro support yet?

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Here's another one with both storms figured in, FWIW right now:

image.png.8777d0000bcce8e2caee6c47d6f7e276.png

Jeez, I'll be in the donut hole in Cancun - if this holds (and I hope it does).  That "yellow" system is forecast to drift NW for once, not bullet train it to Louisiana as apparently required by law or something... well at least it's not forecast to go there - yet.

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Bevo

Bevo 13534

Posted
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18 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Here's another one with both storms figured in, FWIW right now:

image.png.8777d0000bcce8e2caee6c47d6f7e276.png

Jeez, I'll be in the donut hole in Cancun - if this holds (and I hope it does).  That "yellow" system is forecast to drift NW for once, not bullet train it to Louisiana as apparently required by law or something... well at least it's not forecast to go there - yet.

I am kind of an expert in this stuff and I am pretty sure the cucumber shaped one is going to follow the hole shaped one.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I am kind of an expert in this stuff and I am pretty sure the cucumber shaped one is going to follow the hole shaped one.

That one is yellow.  Atmospheric yeast infection.  It'll stay away.  I think it'll cross the continent and look for some Pacific snatch.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25611

Posted
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6 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Models coming into agreement that whatever it is, it's going south.  I hope so, don't want that in the Yucatan next week!
94L_tracks_latest.png

We all know the rain follows you. Be it Bee Caves or Cancun. Please come and sit on my front yard one day. I will provide beer and bbq. 

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Rip76

Rip76 4918

Posted
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95L

1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is centered over the northwestern Gulf of 
Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low has 
increased overnight but remains disorganized. Some additional 
development of this system is possible as it moves slowly westward 
or west-southwestward and approaches the coast of Texas during the 
next two days. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be 
possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. For more 
information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products 
issued by your National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

 

57ADEC7B-13B1-4F96-9907-EC2D47BBB6A5.png

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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KXAN update:

https://www.kxan.com/weather/weather-blog/first-warning-tropical-low-could-bring-heavy-rain-to-central-texas/

(excerpts, bolded mine)... sub-tropical storms can still pack a lot of rain.  Still 50/50 coastal vs. inland rain:

There still remains uncertainty as to where this tropical low will come ashore, but there is increasing confidence that this disturbance will stay sub-tropical storm strength as it runs out of ocean real estate before getting pushed over land. The National Hurricane Center has a 30% probability of further organization within two days.

The European (ECMWF) model shows a more easterly track with the heaviest rain favoring east Texas, leaving Central Texas with minimal rainfall accumulation.

The American (GFS) model shows a more southerly, disorganized track that would leave our southern counties favored for ~1″ of rain, and lesser amount elsewhere.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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Not easy to find the center, but it's about here (red dot):

image.png.07def8213724e7b7613944cf92eb51e2.png


Looks like it even took a jog east on the latest loop.

Yeah, it's still a mess, the stationary front NW of it could be playing with it a little.  Watch for the SW wrap to see if it's getting organized.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

Posted
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9 minutes ago, Rip76 said:

New models out.

 

49068CEC-73D3-46E5-AF08-5A09AF02324F.png

I'll take a 40% chance that this gets into Central TX at this point.  No doubt we'd get flooded if it did, but that will bode for a decent rest of the summer at least.  Extra water will help spawn popup showers.  Lakes will be closer to full than now, etc.   

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25611

Posted
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1 minute ago, Born to Run said:

I'm going with the green forecasted track because that has the highest level of Chuck Testa action or Greg Davis 3rd and goal where the route looks promising only to zig back behind the sticks. And as Brisket pointed out, dumping rain where we Don't need it.

maybe it will flood aggy and more sewage can be leaked. 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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Today it looks a bit stronger... NE convection isn't bubbling as much, is steadier.A little wrap on NW quadrant, and SE has at least a bubble-up.  SW will lag, especially if storm gets close to land and pulls in only dry air.  Center (red dot/white edge) today has drifted SW from yesterday as expected.  Still has a fighting chance of developing into a TS, it ain't over yet.  White specks are lightning strikes BTW.  My little semi-eduated guess is that if it continues more of a W-SW drift it'll go up on the "right" side of Austin, that is over or west of ATX.  If it starts heading north today, ATX might get nothin' or close to it.  Right now leaning ever so slightly to a path over or W of ATX.

image.png.f0f3a3903f335689b3c8a5d5bb866e80.png

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
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11 hours ago, Grimas said:

Looks like a fun trip home flying from Cancun to Houston tomorrow...

Looks like I'm luckin' out.  PTC 1 (down over Guyana or somewhere) is sputtering, but more importantly, staying way south.  Shouldn't impact Cancun over the weekend at all, though it's certainly going to strengthen quickly once clearing the continent (SA).

PTC 2 is likely heading more NW-ward, and could potentially be a Cancun storm - but it won't arrive until mid next-week at the Mexican coast, if it gets there at all.  Plenty of time for me to get in/out by Monday evening.

As for you, I wouldn't think you'd have any problems.  The storm is bringing a little rain and wind to Houston today, but flying over the main part of it is no big deal (flying over hurricanes isn't turbulent, usually - it's flying into them that's a riot).  I wouldn't think you'll be buffeted too much except for a little bumpy ride down through the outer edge of it - and it's still pretty comparatively weak.

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