2022 Tropical Storm and Hurricane Thread

[Brisketexan 104791]

We ain't gettin' shit.

[Nueces River Rat 5533]

18 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Updated.

These weather models do what they almost always predict for a Texas landfall.    They show it going towards Corpus and then, never mind going to Houston/SE Texas to where South Texas and up the Hill Country are on the dry side and it gets super hot thanks to this   And Houston gets 15 inches of rain....  There is a reason south of Port O Connor, landfalling tropical systems are as common as many think.  

Edited June 29, 2022 by Nueces River Rat

[Hate 20104]

From the pro Mets I follow, the TVCN model is the one to follow for track. That really sucks for the Highland Lakes.

[phdhorn 6224]

Yeah, I don't think anyone here is set on an Austin big rain event, and you're right... the huge majority of these early-season Gulf-forming storms almost always go NE there are sound reasons for that, too, nagonnatellemherenow.  The only reason why this one could is that the frontal boundary that's now more or less burnt out NW of the storm might still have enough juice to draw it in and interact.

But this storm was originally forecast to be a coast-hugger, so nothing is that out of whack with the models.  If it gets enough mass it could bully its way NW ward as well, but dunno.  Since the front broke up the high ridge which would normally chew this thing up and spit it out, and the high isn't re-settled yet, there's a tinker's chance.

But right now it's pretty much a coin toss.

[Chet Steadman 940]

Nothing like the prospect of watching the eastern counties get 4-7" of rainfall when knowing if the storm took the same path just 50-75 miles to the east, some of the Highlands could easily go up 10-15' in a matter of days.  

[Rip76 4918]

Recon flying in now.

They found a change in wind direction.

[TXLNGHRN10 341]

Is there still a chance???

[boknowstecmo 216]

22 minutes ago, TXLNGHRN10 said:

Is there still a chance???

 

Why do you do this to yourself? 

[Mother mopar 3311]

Is there still a chance???

Do not use this map to make decisions.

[Gatorubet 30165]

Do not use this map to make decisions.

[Rip76 4918]

A little shift to the East with the 0z models.

 

Edited June 30, 2022 by Rip76

[miguelito 11225]

It's gonna hit New Orleans.

[Brisketexan 104791]

It's gonna hit Florida.

FIF fuck this shit.

[Updawg 2262]

lake Charles or Beaumont

[Telegraph_it 3354]

This is going to fuck my escape to J hole on Friday isn’t it.

[Eastwood 4394]

[Kel Varnsen 8457]

[phdhorn 6224]

... and this one's behaving and staying the hell outta the way and not ruining my weekend.

[Trey3216 15325]

1 hour ago, phdhorn said:

... and this one's behaving and staying the hell outta the way and not ruining my weekend.

Need that baby to make a hard turn north right near the southern tip of Baja and ride up through the desert and eventually dump .10" rain on us.  

[Nonbryan 173]

11 hours ago, phdhorn said:

... and this one's behaving and staying the hell outta the way and not ruining my weekend.

Just the tip sir, just the tip.....

 

[boknowstecmo 216]

Surprise tropical storm popped up over the South Carolina coast overnight. Became a storm while the center was over land.

[phdhorn 6224]

Flew down here to just make sure there was no hurricane in Cancun.

Nope, no hurricane so far.

Edited July 2, 2022 by phdhorn

[clapclapclap 9000]

2 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Flew down here to just make sure there was no hurricane in Cancun.

Nope, no hurricane so far.

Any Snoop Dog or Bad Bunny?

 

 

 

Edited July 2, 2022 by clapclapclap
playa

[Orange&White 5516]

Here is some "Way-too-early-to-get-excited" wishful thinking from the GFS

[Hate 20104]

I can already tell you that if something does develop, it will go into Louisiana. 

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

Here is some "Way-too-early-to-get-excited" wishful thinking from the GFS

Yeah, the ol' go into Houston/New Orleans so Austin gets hotter and drier special. Why would we get excited about that?

[Orange&White 5516]

5 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Yeah, the ol' go into Houston/New Orleans so Austin gets hotter and drier special. Why would we get excited about that?

IDK...would this one help you get your tampon unstuck?

[NorthLoop 14143]

If it actually happened, which we all know it won't. 

[Js1 85162]

Looks like the season got downgraded slightly.

Now predicting 18 tropical storms - down from 21

4 category 1 or 2 hurricanes (down from as many as 10)

4 category 3, 4 or 5 (down from 6)

[miguelito 11225]

I wish I could revise my prediction halfway through the Kentucky Derby.

[Guest]

On 8/1/2022 at 10:03 AM, Orange&White said:

IDK...would this one help you get your tampon unstuck?

So when's that happening? Oh wait. It's not.

[Orange&White 5516]

3 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

So when's that happening? Oh wait. It's not.

It's like you didn't even read what I wrote in the original post, dumbfuck.

[Nicole44 22030]

7 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

It's like you didn't even read what I wrote in the original post, dumbfuck.

 

LOL

[Hate 20104]

There is finally a little something to talk about.  Some models show this moving more west later if it survives the next few days.  It's just something to keep an eye out for now.

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: 
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far 
eastern tropical Atlantic south of the Cabo Verde islands is
associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear 
generally conducive for gradual development of this system while it 
moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the 
eastern and central tropical Atlantic, and a tropical depression 
could form around the middle to latter part of this week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Papin

[BabaYaga 15238]

8 minutes ago, Hate said:

There is finally a little something to talk about.  Some models show this moving more west later if it survives the next few days.  It's just something to keep an eye out for now.

 

[Brisketexan 104791]

1 hour ago, BabaYaga said:

Be careful what you ask for, knowing the timeline that we're in.  Are we much more likely to get a massive storm that fucks up Matagorda to New Orleans, and only drops a shitload of rain right where we don't need it, also causing airflow to make all points west of there get up to 110 degrees?  Yes, yes we are.  Pay attention to how shit is going.

[Kel Varnsen 8457]

[NorthLoop 14143]

lol you guys are adorable. We won't see a drop from this. 

[chainsaw 9841]

On 8/8/2022 at 12:01 PM, BabaYaga said:

Looks like this is happening

[Schulz2.0 28872]

 

[NorthLoop 14143]

Lol.. no.

[Dewey 3284]

Still going

 

 

[phdhorn 6224]

Cross-posted in 3 threads:

The weather pattern has absolutely begun to change.  As in seasonal.  We might get heat/dry back, but this ain't no 1 day reprieve.  This is a huge shift.  It doesn't mean the  end of summer, but it might be very difficult to return to it like it's been.

Rain for most of us starting tomorrow, good daily chances for at least next 7 days if not longer.
Temps are gonna go down a good bit somewhere low-mid 90's most days.  We might not even hit 90 Friday and somewhere within a few days after.
The "Gulf thing" (tropics) will help enhance rain chances and moderate temps, even if it doesn't spin up.  This one will affect CenTex more than the thing yesterday.

Yes, Virginia, summer as we've known it is over, at least for now and waaay into next week.  We'll see what September has to say about it.

[phdhorn 6224]

Gonna get hot today because the front is coming in 3-4 or after.  One more.

[Voldemort86 2259]

You guys are awesome and better than the news meteorologists.

[boknowstecmo 216]

Thing in the BoC at 70% to develop into something. Still expected to churn into NE Mexico tomorrow night though.

[boknowstecmo 216]

Aaand now a Potential TC.

[TornACL 7691]

I hope this August reprieve means that we're gonna have a Texas OU game with kickoff temps in the 40s.

[rage-a-holic 4312]

8 minutes ago, TornACL said:

I hope this August reprieve means that we're gonna have a Texas OU game with kickoff temps in the 40s.

For sure. 40 Celsius.

[Walte464 450]