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2022 Tropical Storm and Hurricane Thread

Hate

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Hate

Hate 20104

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It's still too early to tell exactly where this will end up.  For those who remember Ike, they will know to never say never.

 

Edit:  I can't get the gif to post, but here it is in case anyone wants to check it out.  Basically the gif shows how quickly the forecast track can change...and how quickly.

Quote

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al09/AL092008_5W_024_0.GIF

AL092008_5W_041_0.GIF

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texasdago

texasdago 7553

Posted
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9 hours ago, Hate said:

It's still too early to tell exactly where this will end up.  For those who remember Ike, they will know to never say never.

 

Edit:  I can't get the gif to post, but here it is in case anyone wants to check it out.  Basically the gif shows how quickly the forecast track can change...and how quickly.

AL092008_5W_041_0.GIF

Wanna bet its not coming anywhere west of Bolivar?

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twosheds

twosheds 372

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Posted

The 10 day advance models and the fear mongering associated with said models normally piss me off.  But these models have been moving steadily west since last weekend.  First it was directly over the Keys and Naples.  Now this morning it is near Lake Charles.  This late in the season, most storms are picked up by remnant cold fronts and carried away to the east.  This one seems to be an anomoly and will be interesting to watch.

 

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Hate

Hate 20104

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Wanna bet its not coming anywhere west of Bolivar?

Absolutely not. I’m not predicting landfall or any impact to Texas. All I do is pass on what I read from some professional meteorologists I follow. It most likely won’t end up in Texas, but it can’t be completely ruled out yet. Ike wasn’t supposed to hit Houston, but it did. Harvey wasn’t even supposed to be a storm, but it developed in to a huge storm.

dc9a8716ef3b7e95d2a2c8aa7388d327.jpg
That is the latest GFS which develops this storm into a monster if it makes I into the gulf. Someone along the Gulf Coast could be dealing with a huge storm.
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texasdago

texasdago 7553

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2 hours ago, Hate said:


Absolutely not. I’m not predicting landfall or any impact to Texas. All I do is pass on what I read from some professional meteorologists I follow. It most likely won’t end up in Texas, but it can’t be completely ruled out yet. Ike wasn’t supposed to hit Houston, but it did. Harvey wasn’t even supposed to be a storm, but it developed in to a huge storm.

dc9a8716ef3b7e95d2a2c8aa7388d327.jpg
That is the latest GFS which develops this storm into a monster if it makes I into the gulf. Someone along the Gulf Coast could be dealing with a huge storm.

Yes, that's the GFS but its just one model run and if you look at the various models, the greatest majority of them do not put anything there.  In fact, I'm sure the meteorologists you follow will tell you... don't look at one model run and certainly be skeptical of model runs that are 8 days out.  That one shows one scenario 8 days from now.  I think the Space City Guys do a good job of explaining this:

https://spacecityweather.com/houston-sees-upper-90s-for-five-more-days-before-a-front-and-keeping-an-eye-on-the-tropics/

 

As for Harvey, here's the Space City guys speculating on what might become of Harvey and you can see the signaling about potential issue with steering...

https://spacecityweather.com/yeah-this-weekend-is-looking-wet-for-texas/

https://spacecityweather.com/texas-faces-a-tropical-threat-later-this-week-heavy-rains-possible/

These guys - not just Space City - are pretty good at nailing locations these days and if you look at the predicted track, they were starting to get pretty close

https://spacecityweather.com/harvey-redevelops-in-southern-gulf-will-bring-major-rains-to-texas/

Preponderance of models still have it hooking...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#98L

  

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Hate

Hate 20104

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Jesus dude.  What part of could is lost in translation here?  I follow several pro mets that talk about these storms as they are occurring.  Some of them point out from time to time that the models are wrong, especially when we don't even have a "storm" yet.  Put my posts on ignore if the bother you.  I'm not recommending anybody beginning to board up their house on Bolivar or that they cancel vacation plans on the Yucatan.  I'm posting because this stuff interests me. 

 

In regards to Harvey, many called it dead a week before the link of the SCW guys you posted because the models called it dead.  I posted about it on Shaggy that it was something that could happen (uh oh, there's that word again) because that's what the mets I follow were saying.

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Hate

Hate 20104

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Yeah, if I were anywhere in the Florida peninsula area, I might go ahead and start loading up on supplies and checking my generator.  One thing I always do when a storm is likely to hit our area is buy a window unit and leave it in the packaging.  I return it if I don't need it, but at least I have it if I need it.
 
Here is the latest HWRF model.

2a52ea1004e0f9d2790c6d292da0e608.jpg

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19166

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44 minutes ago, Hate said:

One thing I always do when a storm is likely to hit our area is buy a window unit and leave it in the packaging.  I return it if I don't need it, but at least I have it if I need it.

I assume you need a window unit because your main A/C is out of order.  I also assume the main A/C is kaput because you don't have power.  If you ain't got no power then what's a window unit going to do for you?

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texasdago

texasdago 7553

Posted
Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, Hate said:

Jesus dude.  What part of could is lost in translation here?  I follow several pro mets that talk about these storms as they are occurring.  Some of them point out from time to time that the models are wrong, especially when we don't even have a "storm" yet.  Put my posts on ignore if the bother you.  I'm not recommending anybody beginning to board up their house on Bolivar or that they cancel vacation plans on the Yucatan.  I'm posting because this stuff interests me. 

 

In regards to Harvey, many called it dead a week before the link of the SCW guys you posted because the models called it dead.  I posted about it on Shaggy that it was something that could happen (uh oh, there's that word again) because that's what the mets I follow were saying.

Sorry about that... as someone with a lingering bit of Harvey PTSD (not much at all anymore since I got the F out of Houston), I always get flustered with people that show a random model run showing direct impacts on New Orleans or Houston or whatever... if you follow guys like that, they are posting clickbait.  I know people who lose it when they think a big one is coming after going through Harvey.  Shoot... I knew people who would just cry when it rained they were so messed up so the single model run "experts" really piss me off.

That said, Levi's about to start putting out some content.  Not looking good for SW FL.

 

  

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Hate

Hate 20104

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1 hour ago, texasdago said:

Sorry about that... as someone with a lingering bit of Harvey PTSD (not much at all anymore since I got the F out of Houston), I always get flustered with people that show a random model run showing direct impacts on New Orleans or Houston or whatever... if you follow guys like that, they are posting clickbait.  I know people who lose it when they think a big one is coming after going through Harvey.  Shoot... I knew people who would just cry when it rained they were so messed up so the single model run "experts" really piss me off.

That said, Levi's about to start putting out some content.  Not looking good for SW FL.

 

  

Yeah and I have Ike PTSD. I remember watching it for a while when it was Florida storm, and then a Louisiana storm, and then South Texas storm before making a b-line for the I-45 corridor. I was without power for 15 days and we had a one month old. That sucked. Ever since then, if there is a storm in the GOM, I pay attention until it actually is 24-36 from landfall. Harvey wasn’t that bad for us. Our neighborhood flooded so we couldn’t leave, but I was pretty well stocked with food and liquor so we just partied. There wasn’t anything else we could do. We only lost power once the storm has passed and it cooled off. No big deal.

 

1 hour ago, Dewey said:

Does "M" stand for motherfucker? 

Major…meaning Cat 3 or higher.

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texasdago

texasdago 7553

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14 minutes ago, Hate said:

Yeah and I have Ike PTSD. I remember watching it for a while when it was Florida storm, and then a Louisiana storm, and then South Texas storm before making a b-line for the I-45 corridor. I was without power for 15 days and we had a one month old. That sucked. Ever since then, if there is a storm in the GOM, I pay attention until it actually is 24-36 from landfall. Harvey wasn’t that bad for us. Our neighborhood flooded so we couldn’t leave, but I was pretty well stocked with food and liquor so we just partied. There wasn’t anything else we could do. We only lost power once the storm has passed and it cooled off. No big deal.

 

Major…meaning Cat 3 or higher.

Sounds like Ike for us... we escaped relatively unscathed but two weeks with no power with a one-year old.  We spent a lot of time at my parents who lost power for a grand total of four hours.  Their house was also high and dry which was our "evacuation house" during/after Harvey.  Don't miss any of that garbage.  Thank God Rita turned, too.

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Bevo&Pevo

Bevo&Pevo 5107

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Levi Cowan is worth listening to.  I've followed him for some time.  He's made a believer outta me.  His dissertation yesterday stated the landfall locating would be more probable once the storm was due south of Jamaica.  He had two probabilities at the time.  One, curving over towards Florida and the second was more towards Texas/Louisiana.  All of this was dependent on a trough making its way down from the Great Lakes area.

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Rip76

Rip76 4918

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45 minutes ago, Bevo&Pevo said:

Levi Cowan is worth listening to.  I've followed him for some time.  He's made a believer outta me.  His dissertation yesterday stated the landfall locating would be more probable once the storm was due south of Jamaica.  He had two probabilities at the time.  One, curving over towards Florida and the second was more towards Texas/Louisiana.  All of this was dependent on a trough making its way down from the Great Lakes area.

Levi is so good.

And the details in his videos are perfect for a weather novice.

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 76600

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8 minutes ago, Seger78 said:

I have meetings scheduled in Miami on Monday and Tuesday. Would I be a complete moron if I tried flying in Sunday evening and out Tuesday late afternoon?

 

hurricanes are not joke and this one could be a monster. I'm surprised they haven't canceled on their end. 

Billy Gardell Reaction GIF by CBS

Edited by tx 3 putt
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Hate

Hate 20104

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I hope Tropical Storm/Hurricane Ian takes out Florida's Governor (No CR). Do your thing, namesake hurricane, do your thing. 

And then continues up the coast and takes out all the politicians…oh, I forgot /no cr.

Keep the goddamn politics in the Cr. Start a thread in there of Hurricanes or tropical storms that I hope takes out (insert hated politician).
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Zepol87

Zepol87 9174

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On 9/24/2022 at 3:57 PM, Seger78 said:

I have meetings scheduled in Miami on Monday and Tuesday. Would I be a complete moron if I tried flying in Sunday evening and out Tuesday late afternoon?

I was scheduled to be there Tuesday said fuck that and now going to be at our LA office. Don't risk it

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