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Austin Regional Thread

Horny Bull

By Horny Bull
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someguy
someguy

to continue with the good vibes, about an hour before the game, when AF was starting to warm up, CJ Dornak was walking by the left field stands.  He had thrown the last few innings in the afternoon ga

chase25
chase25

I try not to take kids like Tristan Stevens for granted. Felt like he got slighted by the MLB, came back, had about as bad a season as he could have imagined and had likely come to the realization tha

Assman
Assman

Attention Parade Rest I just fucked a sheep

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Hookem2147

Hookem2147 21188

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Considering we got one of the easiest draws I’ve ever seen last year I expected us to not get as lucky this year. Seems like things set up pretty favorably if we get by Skenes.

Every game in regional after Friday afternoon might have 15 or more combined runs. None of these 4 staffs are particularly deep. I expect a lot of 10-8 type games if Hansen or Gordon aren’t throwing.

Edited by Hookem2147
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chase25

chase25 2048

Posted
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6 hours ago, Spaceman_Spiff said:

Voting Stevens as game 3 starter.
1) Stevens still has a 4.5 ERA in his relier appearances against non-midweek teams. His value is not in being a shutdown bullpen arm, but in the volume of ok innings he can throw. Stevens gives you 6IP of 2-6 run ball and without the same specter of a blowup like we had against OU.
2) Morehouse isn’t the guy, not in the playoffs. He’s given up 20 ER in 19 innings against “real” opponents (not UTRGV) and 12 in his last 7 (including against Kansas and WVU). He is not a viable posteason starter based on the resume to-date.

The only alternative to Stevens is Johnny Allstaff, which gets really dicey really fast. If our bats get blown away (OU) it doesn’t matter much. But keeping it to 5 or 6 v 8+ honestly matters with how potent our offense can be. I wish we could keep Stevens in the pen, and if we get in trouble in the first two games he should probably be our long relief option. But if we can, we want him going 6+ IP and giving us a real chance in a G3.

If I was Pierce I would throw Stevens out of the pen game 1 of the Regional and Super Regional and use him as a starter/long relief in if necessary/elimination games later. 

Once you get to Omaha you get days off so you can be creative. If we go 2-0 in Omaha we can just ride Pete like Mississippi State did Bednar last year. 

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9427

Posted
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4 hours ago, torre said:

https://www.tennessean.com/story/sports/baseball/2022/05/30/2022-ncaa-baseball-regional-pairings-full-schedule-times-tv/9993066002/

Re:   1 PM start,  Friday

Took a look and 9 of 16 hosts play the early game.      May be an ESPN policy for even coverage ?

Right.

because espn and ncaa care about making sure everything is even.

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MuellerHorn

MuellerHorn 4227

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1 hour ago, texifornia said:

Lot of "this is a super easy draw", and I get that, but how did LaTech earn its 2 seed?

Won over 40 games, finished second in conference, won the conference tournament, and beat LSU twice. That’s all I can see.

Solid, but not amazing, resume. 

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 14262

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6 hours ago, texifornia said:

Lot of "this is a super easy draw", and I get that, but how did LaTech earn its 2 seed?

They got hot for 1 week. 

LA Tech was around 50 in RPI until this last week where they went 4-1 in the conference tournament. If they had a bad conference tournament instead of going 4-1 they would have been clearly on the bubble. 

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 14262

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5 hours ago, MuellerHorn said:

Won over 40 games, finished second in conference, won the conference tournament, and beat LSU twice. That’s all I can see.

Solid, but not amazing, resume. 

Yeah, they're a good 3 seed. As a 2, it's a gift. 

People were saying this before the announcement because D1 baseball had LA Tech as the 2 in the College Station regional. Texas could have hadTexas State, LSU, Vanderbilt, Arizona, etc who are much better 2s. I think we also got a weak 3 as Dallas Baptist hasn't been a good team in a couple months now. The only reason they made the tournament was a strong non-conference schedule. 

Texas received a weak 2, a weak 3, and a decent 4. That's a good draw. 

 

 

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 14262

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9 hours ago, Hookem2147 said:

Considering we got one of the easiest draws I’ve ever seen last year I expected us to not get as lucky this year. Seems like things set up pretty favorably if we get by Skenes.

Every game in regional after Friday afternoon might have 15 or more combined runs. None of these 4 staffs are particularly deep. I expect a lot of 10-8 type games if Hansen or Gordon aren’t throwing.

I think part of it is there were so many 2ish caliber teams in the Big 12 so they couldn't be paired with Texas. OU, TCU, and Tech. 

Had any of those teams not been in the Big 12 one of them would have ended up in the Austin Regional. When you look at regional options for the 2 seed there weren't many great options outside of Texas State. That's the only surprise to me. 

 

 

 

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Horndog

Horndog 2227

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1 hour ago, Rickylovesweed said:

It is a super easy draw. One of the easiest regionals. 

 

Yeah, it reminds me of the time about a month ago when we got to the easy part of the schedule. Right before we lost the first 2 games to KSU.

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 14262

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Horndog said:

Yeah, it reminds me of the time about a month ago when we got to the easy part of the schedule. Right before we lost the first 2 games to KSU.

Nobody is saying we will for sure win the regional but it is an easy draw. 

2 of these teams had to win their conference tournament (Air Force/LA Tech) to make a regional and the other (DBU) was clearly on the bubble. That's the definition of an easy draw. 

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 14262

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10 minutes ago, MuellerHorn said:

Yeah, Texas can’t sleepwalk through the regional and just expect to advance. However, this is unequivocally one of the least difficult draws. 

It's a weak supers draw too. https://masseyratings.com/cbase/compare.htm

East Carolina is only #22 when you average all the metrics. Virginia is actually higher at #17. 

Nobody is saying Texas will for sure advance because they've shown the ability to lose against bad teams but this is a beautiful draw. I really don't understand how you could argue otherwise. Texas probably won't play a top 35 team in the regional and likely they won't even have to play a top 15 team in the Supers. 

 

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13225

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4 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Not really. 

Arizona State was a stronger 2 seed, Fairfield was a stronger 3 seed, but Texas Southern was a weaker 4 seed. 

I don't believe you. ASU didn't want to be there and the other two seemed overmatched like Incarnate Word overmatched. That Airforce team we played earlier lookes stronger than any of them.

But maybe this time next week I will agree with you.

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 14262

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Just now, Valmy77 said:

I don't believe you. ASU didn't want to be there and the other two seemed overmatched like Incarnate Word overmatched. That Airforce team we played earlier lookes stronger than any of them.

But maybe this time next week I will agree with you.

You're forgetting how good Fairfield was coming into that regional. They finished 39-5 and were ranked extremely high in a lot of metrics. Fairfield was a tough 3 draw. Air Force and Fairfield aren't even comparable. 

I would probably say Arizona State and LA Tech are close to being a push in terms of strength of 2 seeds but Arizona State still had power 5 talent. Both are weaker 2 seeds. 

2 seed was weak last year and same this year. 

3 seed was strong last year and is weak this year. 

4 seed was weak last year and is kind of strong this year. 

 

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 14262

Posted
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7 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Their resume is statistically indistinguishable from two teams that didn't get bids -- UTSA and ODU.  

Yeah, I think UTSA is better than LA Tech and this regional would probably be flipped with both those teams if UTSA won the C-USA champ game against them. 

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NeverMarryAStripper

NeverMarryAStripper 21869

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28 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Last year Fairfield was our #3. Texas Southern was #4.

This one is murderer's row compared to that one.

Last year's Austin regional was one of the most boring regionals I've ever attended.  Here's hoping this year's is a little more exciting.  Just a little, not too much. 

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 14262

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8 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Fairfield's record was a Covid year fluke, with many schools only playing conference games.

So? They still stacked wins. Air Force went 15-15 in the 15th best RPI conference this year. 

If they had a NIT tournament, Air Force wouldn't have even made that if they didn't win their conference tournament. You're thinking Air Force is better than they are because of the 2 midweek games in Austin. 

 

Edited by Rickylovesweed
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Valmy77

Valmy77 13225

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6 minutes ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

Last year's Austin regional was one of the most boring regionals I've ever attended.  Here's hoping this year's is a little more exciting.  Just a little, not too much. 

I hope it is even more boring personally.

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13225

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4 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

If you are to believe the Massey composite rankings (averages all the metrics) all the teams Texas played this past weekend including TCU, Oklahoma State, and OU were better than anyone in this regional. 

Well one is the #7 national seeds and the others are #2s so hardly a surprise.

I am not saying this is a region of death, only that it scares me more than last year.

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 14262

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Just now, Valmy77 said:

Well one is the #7 national seeds and the others are #2s so hardly a surprise.

I am not saying this is a region of death, only that it scares me more than last year.

It definitely scares me more than last year because Texas doesn't have the same level of pitching. 

I actually think this is a softer draw than last year though. On paper, Florida was a better team than ECU in the supers pairing and there's not much difference between the regionals. 

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UnhappilyMarried

UnhappilyMarried 815

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1 hour ago, Rickylovesweed said:

So? They still stacked wins. Air Force went 15-15 in the 15th best RPI conference this year. 

If they had a NIT tournament, Air Force wouldn't have even made that if they didn't win their conference tournament. You're thinking Air Force is better than they are because of the 2 midweek games in Austin. 

 

Their whole body of work isn’t a great indicator for just game 1 against them. They’ve won 10 straight with Skenes on the mound. They might not be able to hang double digit runs on Gordon/Hansen, but we also won’t be hanging double digits on one of the best pitchers in the country 

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13225

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1 minute ago, UnhappilyMarried said:

Their whole body of work isn’t a great indicator for just game 1 against them. They’ve won 10 straight with Skenes on the mound. They might not be able to hang double digit runs on Gordon/Hansen, but we also won’t be hanging double digits on one of the best pitchers in the country 

And if we lose a Hansen/Gordon start it will be very hard to escape this Regional. 

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 14262

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2 minutes ago, UnhappilyMarried said:

Their whole body of work isn’t a great indicator for just game 1 against them. They’ve won 10 straight with Skenes on the mound. They might not be able to hang double digit runs on Gordon/Hansen, but we also won’t be hanging double digits on one of the best pitchers in the country 

Skenes is good but I'm interested to see what he does against another power 5 team.

He pitched against 1 power 5 team all season and was chased in 3 innings. 

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UnhappilyMarried

UnhappilyMarried 815

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The more I think about it, the more it has to be Pete. Gordon was excellent in Arlington, but he had double digit fly outs with no wind and an oceanic outfield. Drop that game in Austin and Okie Lite has a couple HRs and that game could look a lot different. 

Anything Pierce can do to keep us out of the losers bracket with our staff has to be done and you go from there 

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dcar00

dcar00 14148

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2 hours ago, MuellerHorn said:

Yeah, Texas can’t sleepwalk through the regional and just expect to advance. However, this is unequivocally one of the least difficult draws. 

the pitching is what it is at this point.  It's time for the bats to be consistent and not disappear every other game.

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13225

Posted
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1 minute ago, UnhappilyMarried said:

The more I think about it, the more it has to be Pete. Gordon was excellent in Arlington, but he had double digit fly outs with no wind and an oceanic outfield. Drop that game in Austin and Okie Lite has a couple HRs and that game could look a lot different. 

Anything Pierce can do to keep us out of the losers bracket with our staff has to be done and you go from there 

What if AF saves Skenes until game #2, hoping to beat our weaker pitchers later. I would do that but we'll see what they do.

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