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Renewable Energy Saving Texas' Ass Right Now


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8 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

 Those windfarms out of Corpus can blow for 3 hours and then just drop off without warning.  Now you have to make up for that lost.  Gas plant does a ramp to make up for it.  Only for the wind plants to pick back up an hour later.

 


Which is why the advances being made in battery technology are so exciting.

In a somewhat different vein, I see that Wood Mackenzie is forecasting a massive explosion in DER or virtual power plants ... up to 400 GW by 2025 in the US. 110 billion invested in just six years:

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/coming-wave-of-der-investments-in-us#:~:text=Research Spotlight-,What the Coming Wave of Distributed Energy Resources Means for,in 2025%2C Wood Mackenzie says.&text=Cumulative U.S. DER investments will eclipse %24110 billion between 2020 and 2026.


TESLA has a virtual power plant pilot demonstration for ERCOT here in Texas now, aggregating solar/storage DER and moving that dispatchable power to the grid. They've been doing this in places like Vermont for several years now. Exciting times. 

My predicition: The US is going to the concept of using fossil fuels for energy much faster than anybody realizes or is forecasting. It will be an S curve.








 

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2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Sid makes a good point. O&G recycle 100% of their materials.

seriously, renewables are not a perfect solution but no one ever said it was, so the gotcha moments are pathetic.



When I think of energy visionaries, I think of Sid Miller.

Seriously, has Sid never driven around the Permian Basin?  They don't even take their old pumpjacks to a dump. They just leave them there. Same with all kinds of oil and gas infrastructure.  

The Swedes and Norwegians have been way out ahead on this issue of blades and also battery recycling. As I said, exciting times. 

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9 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:


Which is why the advances being made in battery technology are so exciting.

In a somewhat different vein, I see that Wood Mackenzie is forecasting a massive explosion in DER or virtual power plants ... up to 400 GW by 2025 in the US. 110 billion invested in just six years:

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/coming-wave-of-der-investments-in-us#:~:text=Research Spotlight-,What the Coming Wave of Distributed Energy Resources Means for,in 2025%2C Wood Mackenzie says.&text=Cumulative U.S. DER investments will eclipse %24110 billion between 2020 and 2026.


TESLA has a virtual power plant pilot demonstration for ERCOT here in Texas now, aggregating solar/storage DER and moving that dispatchable power to the grid. They've been doing this in places like Vermont for several years now. Exciting times. 

My predicition: The US is going to the concept of using fossil fuels for energy much faster than anybody realizes or is forecasting. It will be an S curve.








 

An S curve on the end of fossil fuels for just electricity generation would be wonderful. And, it would not be entirely unbelievable based on the growth of both renewables and battery storage solutions. But It still looks like a very daunting task. I'd be very happy with renewables (including nuclear) making up ~70-80% of the grid, backed up by battery storage and gas turbines.  I think that is pretty doable in the next 10-20 years. Higher percentages get much more difficult and frankly may not be efficient environmentally or economically versus balancing out what remains with carbon capture efforts. 

Edited by Dahobbs
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6 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:


Which is why the advances being made in battery technology are so exciting.

In a somewhat different vein, I see that Wood Mackenzie is forecasting a massive explosion in DER or virtual power plants ... up to 400 GW by 2025 in the US. 110 billion invested in just six years:

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/coming-wave-of-der-investments-in-us#:~:text=Research Spotlight-,What the Coming Wave of Distributed Energy Resources Means for,in 2025%2C Wood Mackenzie says.&text=Cumulative U.S. DER investments will eclipse %24110 billion between 2020 and 2026.


TESLA has a virtual power plant pilot demonstration for ERCOT here in Texas now, aggregating solar/storage DER and moving that dispatchable power to the grid. They've been doing this in places like Vermont for several years now. Exciting times. 

My predicition: The US is going to the concept of using fossil fuels for energy much faster than anybody realizes or is forecasting. It will be an S curve.








 

Yeah Microgrids are all the rage.  You get less transmission loss while being able to provide excess to the grid.  And you're absolutely right.  It's a one step away thing and we are high tailing it to a whole new energy bracket.  I've dealt with energy in one way or another for the past 20 years and recently went towards data centers and holy shit.  If you are looking at energy burn vs how to save look at this shit called PUE.  It's a wild ass ride right now.  I can see mini solar Microgrids hooked up to some sort of ATS and loading 20 to 30 MW at a time.  Battery storage is gonna revolutionize everything.  

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https://www.npr.org/2022/05/07/1097376890/for-a-brief-moment-calif-fully-powered-itself-with-renewable-energy#:~:text=On a mild Sunday afternoon,a week earlier of 99.9%.

Quote

On a mild Sunday afternoon, California set a historic milestone in the quest for clean energy. The sun was shining, the wind was blowing and on May 8th, the state produced enough renewable electricity to meet 103% of consumer demand. That broke a record set a week earlier of 99.9%.

Energy experts say the falling records are a sign of the remarkable progress that renewable energy has made. But that doesn't mean fossil fuels were out of the picture.

 

Quote

The state is rapidly building huge battery projects for that purpose, so power generated during the day can be stored for use at sunset. But so far, it's still a small fraction of what's needed.

It's a sign that, even as California and more than a dozen other states work towards long-term goals of getting 100% clean energy year-round, weaning off fossil fuels is no simple task.

"Their role is not going to go away until we have a substitute for the service that natural gas generation provides," says Arne Olsen, senior partner at Energy + Environmental Economics, an energy think tank. "The good news is that you can get an awful long way just by adding wind and solar and batteries to our current grid."

There's a cool graph imbedded in the article, but I couldn't post it here without screwing up the legend. Anyway, article just kinda reinforces what's already being discussed here.

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4 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

Every year: "The advances being made in our football recruiting are so exciting!  Top 10 class, we've turned the corner!"

If our football team experienced the type of growth and improvement that battery storage goes through every year, then we might have an actual reason to be optimistic. 

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29 minutes ago, Homercles said:

I see a lot of parallels between ‘renewables can’t solve all energy issues’ and ‘that law/action won’t solve all mass shootings’ in here.  

Weird overlap between that and the oil barons thread too. Ah well, nevertheless

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On 6/15/2022 at 8:41 PM, crash_davis said:

Japan is developing ocean turbines driven by ocean currents. Won't someone think of the dolphins!

https://www.designboom.com/technology/japan-new-ocean-turbine-could-harvest-endless-green-power-06-13-2022/

For over a decade, Japan’s IHI Corporation has been working on Kairyu, a sea turbine that can harness the power of the ocean currents. Developed in collaboration with NEDO, the 100kW and 330-ton tidal power plant features a 66-foot central cylinder with two extra ones on each side, each carrying 36-foot turbine blades attached to them.

Japan is located near the Kuroshio, one of the world’s most powerful ocean currents, and one estimate states that if the energy present in the Kuroshio could be harnessed, it would amount to approximately 205 GW, which is comparable to Japan’s total electric power generation. Ocean current power generation is a harvesting method of ocean renewable energy. This energy regeneration technology is intended to effectively utilize the Kuroshio Current and is suited to Japan.

 

Just think of all that electricity generation when the next tsunami hits, as long as the bodies don't clog up the turbines!

This was my fucking idea god dammit. 

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I think all this is extremely exciting and gives people optimism in the near-future. I swear the naysayers on this thread… I get being conservative on a fiscal sense and taking objections to subsidies, but some of y’all naysayers seem to have no imagination. 

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On 6/16/2022 at 10:28 AM, Neonmoon said:

Most people have reading comprehension problems. 

There are two conversations happening, and overlapping. 

1. Texas is rhetorically anti-renewables. 

2. Texas is anti-renewables. 

Many people are arguing about #2 when the article posted in OP is clearly about #1. 

Everyone needs to re-read the article posted. 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/14/us/texas-energy-record-solar-wind-climate/index.html

 

While we are being pedantic, My problem is with this point from the article 

Texans setting new records for electricity demand in the state.  Experts told CNN that it's owed in large part to strong performances from wind and solar

What the hell kind of logic is that. Demand is up driven by strong supply of renewable sources?

Demand is up due to weather, population and crypto miners. We have not crashed because of renewables. 
 

image.png.0e08553d865049c76e2b191c0a57450d.png

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It is funny to hear the same tired arguments about energy. Some of yall remind me of Nancy Reagan's take on drugs but keep effing that chicken. We'd already be a dominant solar state if the rps weren't met with wind. Or, if we were the kind if place that would mandate some solar on new construction.

But whatever, the die is cast and your generation lost.

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1 hour ago, TexasEd said:

While we are being pedantic, My problem is with this point from the article 

Texans setting new records for electricity demand in the state.  Experts told CNN that it's owed in large part to strong performances from wind and solar

What the hell kind of logic is that. Demand is up driven by strong supply of renewable sources?

Demand is up due to weather, population and crypto miners. We have not crashed because of renewables. 
 

image.png.0e08553d865049c76e2b191c0a57450d.png

I selected important quotes from the article. If you actually read the article, you would realize that. I wasn’t trying to infer that demand was caused by wind or solar. I was trying to showing the important ideas being expressed in the article.  That demand was up. And in response, wind and solar are handling much of the burden. Which is funny since Texas spews anti-renewable rhetoric. 

here are the first two paragraphs. And the bolder selections used. 

Quote

Texans are cranking on the air conditioning this week amid an unusually early heat wave, setting new records for electricity demand in the state, which surpassed 75 gigawatts on Sunday and smashed the 2019 record. Texas grid operator ERCOT projects it could approach that peak again on Tuesday.

But unlike previous extreme weather events in Texas which led to deadly blackouts, the grid is holding up remarkably well this week. Several experts told CNN that it's owed in large part to strong performances from wind and solar, which generated 27 gigawatts of electricity during Sunday's peak demand -- close to 40% of the total needed

Which is specifically why I said everyone needs to re-read the article 

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6 hours ago, YChang said:

I think all this is extremely exciting and gives people optimism in the near-future. I swear the naysayers on this thread… I get being conservative on a fiscal sense and taking objections to subsidies, but some of y’all naysayers seem to have no imagination. 

I think it's awesome but the renewables guys have a lot of cart before the horse energy on this right now.  We throw nuclear out there as everyone's knew favorite buzzword and play toy but nuclear is pretty much dead and this is coming from someone who loves nuclear and did nuclear and a lot of my friends are in nuclear.  It's all buzzwords.  I also hate the traditionalists saying oh solar is never going to work.  Whether they like it or not.  It's here to stay.  

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On 6/18/2022 at 5:42 PM, FartingMonk said:

I think it's awesome but the renewables guys have a lot of cart before the horse energy on this right now.  We throw nuclear out there as everyone's knew favorite buzzword and play toy but nuclear is pretty much dead and this is coming from someone who loves nuclear and did nuclear and a lot of my friends are in nuclear.  It's all buzzwords.  I also hate the traditionalists saying oh solar is never going to work.  Whether they like it or not.  It's here to stay.  

I would just like to point out that horse and cart transportation is sustainable and zero(or low +/- Beefaroni) emissions.   

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1 hour ago, Hawndoh said:

If you think horses are free from emissions you haven't been around too many horses.

My dad found that out as a little kid when he rode down by my granddad’s feet while he was driving the family buggy. 
Horse raised its tail and let fly with a load of loose shit in his face. That was just prior to WW1.

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So, I've got ideas for the problems with wind (when it's not windy) and solar (at night). First, put some rubber bands into the wind mills. As they turn in the wind, the bands keep getting tighter and tighter. When the wind dies down, the bands with take over and keep everything spinning for a while...the bigger the rubber band, the better this idea works. For solar, the answer is mirrors. Arrange a bunch of mirrors that "catch" sunlight during the day and then keep bouncing the sunlight to different mirrors. If you use enough mirrors and have them direct light onto a solar panel at certain intervals, you could keep hitting those panels with at least some sunlight all night long. Easy peasy.

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On 6/17/2022 at 12:00 PM, Foosters said:

https://www.npr.org/2022/05/07/1097376890/for-a-brief-moment-calif-fully-powered-itself-with-renewable-energy#:~:text=On a mild Sunday afternoon,a week earlier of 99.9%.

 

There's a cool graph imbedded in the article, but I couldn't post it here without screwing up the legend. Anyway, article just kinda reinforces what's already being discussed here.

image.png.13b7f0054c2de72902e7ab938513cb36.png

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4 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

image.png.13b7f0054c2de72902e7ab938513cb36.png

I liked that article.  It was one of the few honest articles where they just explained facts and not try to skew data or misinterpret it.  It said hey yes demand was low and it was sunny outside and we hit the right conditions for renewables to be good for an hour.  That's the crux of it right now.  Renewables are great sometimes.  We need them to be great a majority of the time.

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8 hours ago, SquishMitten said:

So, I've got ideas for the problems with wind (when it's not windy) and solar (at night). First, put some rubber bands into the wind mills. As they turn in the wind, the bands keep getting tighter and tighter. When the wind dies down, the bands with take over and keep everything spinning for a while...the bigger the rubber band, the better this idea works. For solar, the answer is mirrors. Arrange a bunch of mirrors that "catch" sunlight during the day and then keep bouncing the sunlight to different mirrors. If you use enough mirrors and have them direct light onto a solar panel at certain intervals, you could keep hitting those panels with at least some sunlight all night long. Easy peasy.

Brilliant! We should have rubber bands engaged during the day when the solar panels are on the clock providing energy to keep the rubber bands getting tauter and tauter. As soon as the solar panels punch out in the evening, we release the rubber bands, which will cause the windmills to act as millions of turbojets to spin the earth right around its axis to get to morning within a minute, thereby putting those solar panels to work again hence doubling their utilization and reducing cost by 50%. Win, win!

The guys on the other side of the planet may grumble about always being left in the dark, but that's why we have a dominant military.

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On 6/15/2022 at 1:41 PM, crash_davis said:

Japan is developing ocean turbines driven by ocean currents. Won't someone think of the dolphins!

https://www.designboom.com/technology/japan-new-ocean-turbine-could-harvest-endless-green-power-06-13-2022/

For over a decade, Japan’s IHI Corporation has been working on Kairyu, a sea turbine that can harness the power of the ocean currents. Developed in collaboration with NEDO, the 100kW and 330-ton tidal power plant features a 66-foot central cylinder with two extra ones on each side, each carrying 36-foot turbine blades attached to them.

Japan is located near the Kuroshio, one of the world’s most powerful ocean currents, and one estimate states that if the energy present in the Kuroshio could be harnessed, it would amount to approximately 205 GW, which is comparable to Japan’s total electric power generation. Ocean current power generation is a harvesting method of ocean renewable energy. This energy regeneration technology is intended to effectively utilize the Kuroshio Current and is suited to Japan.

 

Just think of all that electricity generation when the next tsunami hits, as long as the bodies don't clog up the turbines!

I've always heard that turbines driven by ocean currents are always inferior to falling water. So even if you design a system that works ok in the ocean, it would be even more effective if you can create a system of falling water. Of course, like glaciers we may have fewer lakes by the next century.

I love ideas like this one, from the 60s, that turn reservoirs into batteries: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludington_Pumped_Storage_Power_Plant or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bath_County_Pumped_Storage_Station

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19 hours ago, SquishMitten said:

So, I've got ideas for the problems with wind (when it's not windy) and solar (at night). First, put some rubber bands into the wind mills. As they turn in the wind, the bands keep getting tighter and tighter. When the wind dies down, the bands with take over and keep everything spinning for a while...the bigger the rubber band, the better this idea works. For solar, the answer is mirrors. Arrange a bunch of mirrors that "catch" sunlight during the day and then keep bouncing the sunlight to different mirrors. If you use enough mirrors and have them direct light onto a solar panel at certain intervals, you could keep hitting those panels with at least some sunlight all night long. Easy peasy.

The rubber bands would pull the blades in the opposite direction. The electricity would be sucked from the grid instead of pushed to it.  Kind of like the Vac-U-Suck debacle in Spaceballs. The mirror idea is legit though, I envision it as one long continuous line of mirrors completely encircling the globe so that the light gets right back to the panel from the other side.  One such set of globe-encircling mirrors per panel. 

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53 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I've always heard that turbines driven by ocean currents are always inferior to falling water. So even if you design a system that works ok in the ocean, it would be even more effective if you can create a system of falling water. Of course, like glaciers we may have fewer lakes by the next century.

I love ideas like this one, from the 60s, that turn reservoirs into batteries: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludington_Pumped_Storage_Power_Plant or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bath_County_Pumped_Storage_Station

For the first part, I don't know why it would be either/or. Sure, falling water may be better, but it isn't as plentiful. 

As for pumped hydro storage, it is pretty common and is the capacity energy storage system worldwide. 

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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I've always heard that turbines driven by ocean currents are always inferior to falling water. So even if you design a system that works ok in the ocean, it would be even more effective if you can create a system of falling water. Of course, like glaciers we may have fewer lakes by the next century.

I love ideas like this one, from the 60s, that turn reservoirs into batteries: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludington_Pumped_Storage_Power_Plant or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bath_County_Pumped_Storage_Station

Can’t wait til they fuck up the ocean currents and really mess with the client.   We know the Japanese sure as shit aren’t worrrying about the whales getting caught in their ocean current turbines.   

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7 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

For the first part, I don't know why it would be either/or. Sure, falling water may be better, but it isn't as plentiful. 

As for pumped hydro storage, it is pretty common and is the capacity energy storage system worldwide. 

All about potential energy.  The difference in height gives you that.

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10 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

All about potential energy.  The difference in height gives you that.

I'm not sure if this responding to my post or just adding to it. Yes, the difference in height provides potential energy that we can extract. And there is also kinetic energy we can extract from ocean currents.  I don't see any reason why we have to limit ourselves to one or the other as suggested by @Nice Guy Eddie

Also, I realized my prior post was incomplete. I meant to say that pumped hydro storage is the largest store of energy we have worldwide. 

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4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I'm not sure if this responding to my post or just adding to it. Yes, the difference in height provides potential energy that we can extract. And there is also kinetic energy we can extract from ocean currents.  I don't see any reason why we have to limit ourselves to one or the other as suggested by @Nice Guy Eddie

Also, I realized my prior post was incomplete. I meant to say that pumped hydro storage is the largest store of energy we have worldwide. 

Nice guy Eddie was asking about why.  The potential energy from the difference in height converts to the same kinetic energy everytime.  Using ocean currents they vary so it makes your turbines vary.  Both methods work.  The difference in height makes it work more efficiently because it is predictable and consistent.

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Along the coast of Brittany, the tides are incredibly strong. To take advantage of that, a tidal power plant was put into operation in 1966 and can pump out up to 240 MW. South Korea put one on line in 2011 that's even stronger. Of course, like anything, it's not perfect and can result in fish being killed going through the turbines, plus we don't have tides like this in Texas.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rance_Tidal_Power_Station

 

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On 6/17/2022 at 1:01 PM, Captainant said:

Weird overlap between that and the oil barons thread too. Ah well, nevertheless

There is?  Huh. I post in that thread all the time. I’m all for renewables increasing (they are but they’ll never replace hydrocarbons in our lifetimes) and much more stringent gun control. I bet every Oil Baron is too. You’re an odd dude that just imagines shit, aren’t you. 

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1 hour ago, Porterhouse said:

There is?  Huh. I post in that thread all the time. I’m all for renewables increasing (they are but they’ll never replace hydrocarbons in our lifetimes) and much more stringent gun control. I bet every Oil Baron is too. You’re an odd dude that just imagines shit, aren’t you. 

Yes, everything I post is about you specifically, because you are a special snowflake. I was clearly mentioning you specifically when talking about the oil barons thread and nobody else. Congratulations, you are the most important person on surly. 

Or, just maybe, you shouldn't clamber for a reason to paint yourself as a victim for things not said about you in particular?

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31 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Yes, everything I post is about you specifically, because you are a special snowflake. I was clearly mentioning you specifically when talking about the oil barons thread and nobody else. Congratulations, you are the most important person on surly. 

Or, just maybe, you shouldn't clamber for a reason to paint yourself as a victim for things not said about you in particular?

*clamor

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Tesla virtual power plant Emergency Load Reduction Pilot | Tesla Support

Get paid $2/kWh during emergency events. There are about 50,000 powerwalls with about 500MWh to draw power from. 

With vehicle-to-load options from others such as Ford, there is a quite a bit of potential to share the energy during emergencies or peak power situations.

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7 minutes ago, AeroHorn said:

Tesla virtual power plant Emergency Load Reduction Pilot | Tesla Support

Get paid $2/kWh during emergency events. There are about 50,000 powerwalls with about 500MWh to draw power from. 

With vehicle-to-load options from others such as Ford, there is a quite a bit of potential to share the energy during emergencies or peak power situations.

LAARS program.  Surprisingly HEB playing a bigger role in this too 

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