Renewable Energy Saving Texas' Ass Right Now

[Biff Tannen 45690]

11 hours ago, futureman said:

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/06/23/siemens-energy-scraps-profit-outlook-as-wind-turbine-troubles-deepen.html

So Siemens sucks at building wind turbines.  Noted.

[gmr548 16580]

apparently we've got 1/3 of the US's installed battery capacity and we're going to double that in the next year, and about to pass CA in installed utility solar:

Texas has since become a national leader in battery storage, with nearly a third of the nation’s capacity, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. Only California has more. Texas plans to nearly double the amount of battery storage on its grid within the next year, Lewin said.
The proliferation of such storage is likely to drive wind and solar development in the state even during a time the technologies are under siege in the Texas Capitol.
“A lot of this storage is coming online as kind of an insurance policy in case something breaks,” Rhodes said. “But once it is on the system, it can do more than just help us during emergencies. It can help support renewables.”
  Wind and solar energy, Rhodes said, can be packed into the batteries when the sun is pounding and the wind is howling but demand for electricity is low, and then sold to ratepayers when they need it. The battery units are coming online at the same time Texas is vastly expanding its use of solar power, with the state on track this summer to surpass California in production of electricity from utility-scale solar farms.

 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/06/24/texas-heat-wave-power-grid/

Very glad the legislature’s attempts to kneecap renewable development failed. Even removing climate/environmental factors entirely, would have been a disaster for Texas residents and businesses in the form of both significantly increased costs and deteriorating reliability.

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20400]

The merciless summer sun is beating us down and reminding us that, going forward, Texas will need more electricity to power our air conditioners.  The inherent logic behind using that same sun to generate that electricity is so powerful --- such an irresistible force ---- that there is literally nothing oil/gas producers (the immovable object) can do to stop what's going to happen.  

 

[Brisketexan 105147]

11 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

that there is literally nothing oil/gas producers (the immovable object) can do to stop what's going to happen.  

Tell me that you've never met the Texas Legislature without telling me you've never met the Texas Legislature.

[Pato del Muerto 52501]

30 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Tell me that you've never met the Texas Legislature without telling me you've never met the Texas Legislature.

Why does it have to be solar farms instead of subsidizing or outright paying for solar capability on the roof of every home in Texas?  Is it so certain elements can make money on some land or selling the energy?

[Captainant 27677]

45 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

The merciless summer sun is beating us down and reminding us that, going forward, Texas will need more electricity to power our air conditioners.  The inherent logic behind using that same sun to generate that electricity is so powerful --- such an irresistible force ---- that there is literally nothing oil/gas producers (the immovable object) can do to stop what's going to happen.  

It's a good thing too that the governor vetoed the recently passed and bipartisan energy efficiency bills that would've ensured that new builds use less energy! Gotta make sure the O&G guys have strong demand for their product

[gmr548 16580]

The merciless summer sun is beating us down and reminding us that, going forward, Texas will need more electricity to power our air conditioners.  The inherent logic behind using that same sun to generate that electricity is so powerful --- such an irresistible force ---- that there is literally nothing oil/gas producers (the immovable object) can do to stop what's going to happen.  

 

Tell me that you've never met the Texas Legislature without telling me you've never met the Texas Legislature.

O&G actually opposed some of the lege’s energy bills this year. They were that bad.

[Post Oak 20215]

24 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

O&G actually opposed some of the lege’s energy bills this year. They were that bad.

 

Plus it's not hard to see big O&G pivoting to become a new age,green energy giants.

[Post Oak 20215]

I'm an idiot when it comes to most of this stuff but I think that geothermal storage is really exciting. I'm sure there are some on here that know better than I on this but it's a clean way to store energy in abandoned oil wells.  

I'm aware of Fervo and Sage Geosystems working on it now.  I'm sure there are more.

Here's an explainer.

 

[Wally Fairway 5550]

it has been around for a long time (well at least most of my lifetime) 

we have a big storage system here in Michigan, it is considered the 4th largest battery in the world

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludington_Pumped_Storage_Power_Plant

 

of course people complain about the water is slightly warmer when returned to Lake Michy, and sometimes fish get caught into pump system.

[PTINS 3472]

I haven't been here since the freeze, just came by to get the pulse, and offer an opinion ...

On 4/21/2023 at 1:21 PM, elfenix said:

Big gravity battery installation being built out near Snyder

"As for efficiency, Energy Vault guarantees EVx systems will generate at least 80% of the energy required to lift the bricks (24 tons) and scoot them around, including factors like friction."

https://www.cnet.com/home/energy-and-utilities/hundreds-of-these-24-ton-bricks-could-change-how-we-use-renewable-energy/

So, the Energy Vault will store energy produced at $X cost, and redeliver 80% of that energy back into the grid, when energy costs are higher, $Y cost, with $Y >> $X).  The underlying premise being that the cost savings ($Y - $X) will offset the 20% energy lost in the transfer, as well as the capital and operating & maintenance costs of the facility. Okay.

Newtonian physics; energy cannot be created or destroyed, and ... you can't even break even.

They (one of you money guys) need to co-locate these energy vaults at container ship offloading sites; the cranes already have the containers way up in the air, just load them in a facility, harness the gravity generated energy, load the containers on transports, rinse & repeat.  Maybe adds a day or two to the supply chain.  

15 hours ago, elfenix said:

apparently we've got 1/3 of the US's installed battery capacity and we're going to double that in the next year, and about to pass CA in installed utility solar:

"Texas has since become a national leader in battery storage, with nearly a third of the nation’s capacity ... only California has more." 

"Wind and solar energy, Rhodes said, can be packed into the batteries when the sun is pounding and the wind is howling but demand for electricity is low, and then sold to ratepayers when they need it."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/06/24/texas-heat-wave-power-grid/

Yesterday was an unremarkable weather day for summer in Texas, play ol' hot with a lot of sunshine.  Peak renewable energy production was ~ 48.9% of the total (~ 28,000 MW), occurring ~ 9:30 in the morning.

Peak demand occurred ~ 78,400 MW around ~ 5-6 pm, with renewables production of ~19,400 MW making up 24.8% of the total.

The rhetoric and the raw data (from Texas anyway) don't quite support each other, as the peak renewable production (9-10 in the morning) is out of phase with the peak demand (4-6 in the afternoon).

At least on this particular day, the lowest wind production occurs during the 4-6 pm peak demand period.  This surprised me; all my younger days spent driving 500 miles a week across west Texas taught me that the wind picks up later in the afternoon. I would not expect that the wind gets high enough to "cutoff". 

4 hours ago, Post Oak said:

X-post.

Should be tight today but we will probably break the record we set yesterday.

 

15 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

By the way, Doug Lewin is a good follow on Twitter. Very interesting energy analysis.

Doug may be a good follow, but for my first reading, he has an agenda.  There may have been "high levels of fossil fuel outages", but the net effect is those outages had zero effect and the incremental power demand during the normal daily profile was met with increased fossil fuel production, including the offset attributable to renewable production decreasing during the day. 

I support whatever energy source that can can improve the cost and reliability of the overall system, but masking the true cost/benefit of each contributor through rhetoric, credits & subsidies only blurs the picture and benefits individual producers at the expense of consumers.

I know some of the larger renewable producers earn significant tax credits, which they apply to their oil & gas production, for which they end up having a zero tax obligation. That is the only way they can monetize their renewable credits, playing by the rules, and not paying taxes.

Edited June 26, 2023 by PTINS
double image

[HouTex 1867]

1 hour ago, PTINS said:

I haven't been here since the freeze, just came by to get the pulse, and offer an opinion ...

So, the Energy Vault will store energy produced at $X cost, and redeliver 80% of that energy back into the grid, when energy costs are higher, $Y cost, with $Y >> $X).  The underlying premise being that the cost savings ($Y - $X) will offset the 20% energy lost in the transfer, as well as the capital and operating & maintenance costs of the facility. Okay.

Newtonian physics; energy cannot be created or destroyed, and ... you can't even break even.

They (one of you money guys) need to co-locate these energy vaults at container ship offloading sites; the cranes already have the containers way up in the air, just load them in a facility, harness the gravity generated energy, load the containers on transports, rinse & repeat.  Maybe adds a day or two to the supply chain.  

Yesterday was an unremarkable weather day for summer in Texas, play ol' hot with a lot of sunshine.  Peak renewable energy production was ~ 48.9% of the total (~ 28,000 MW), occurring ~ 9:30 in the morning.

Peak demand occurred ~ 78,400 MW around ~ 5-6 pm, with renewables production of ~19,400 MW making up 24.8% of the total.

The rhetoric and the raw data (from Texas anyway) don't quite support each other, as the peak renewable production (9-10 in the morning) is out of phase with the peak demand (4-6 in the afternoon).

At least on this particular day, the lowest wind production occurs during the 4-6 pm peak demand period.  This surprised me; all my younger days spent driving 500 miles a week across west Texas taught me that the wind picks up later in the afternoon. I would not expect that the wind gets high enough to "cutoff". 

Doug may be a good follow, but for my first reading, he has an agenda.  There may have been "high levels of fossil fuel outages", but the net effect is those outages had zero effect and the incremental power demand during the normal daily profile was met with increased fossil fuel production, including the offset attributable to renewable production decreasing during the day. 

I support whatever energy source that can can improve the cost and reliability of the overall system, but masking the true cost/benefit of each contributor through rhetoric, credits & subsidies only blurs the picture and benefits individual producers at the expense of consumers.

I know some of the larger renewable producers earn significant tax credits, which they apply to their oil & gas production, for which they end up having a zero tax obligation. That is the only way they can monetize their renewable credits, playing by the rules, and not paying taxes.

You know what you’re talking about.  How dare you post in this thread.  

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20400]

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Guest]

It was windy AF today in Amarillo.  First windy day we've had in a while.  Looks like tonight is gonna be windy too, which is unusual.

Edited June 28, 2023 by slorch

[Deej 76797]

They are just finishing up a big array of solar panels at Camp Mabry. I'm sure Abbott and the legislature will be anti-military, soon. 

[Dahobbs 17534]

On 6/26/2023 at 2:29 PM, PTINS said:

.

The rhetoric and the raw data (from Texas anyway) don't quite support each other, as the peak renewable production (9-10 in the morning) is out of phase with the peak demand (4-6 in the afternoon).

This is a weird criticism. Solar is more likely to align with peak demand in the summer. And your chart demonstrates that. It just also demonstrates that Texas has a lot less solar built out than wind. If solar capacity was closer to wind capacity, peak renewable production would have aligned more with peak demand in that chart. 

[Pato del Muerto 52501]

Isn’t this why efficient storage is a big deal?  To help flatten the curves of wind and solar between generation and delivery?

[GabrielsHorn 2183]

Great interview by one of our professors , Dr Webber, on the state of Texas grid.

 

[PTINS 3472]

On 6/28/2023 at 8:04 PM, Dahobbs said:

This is a weird criticism. Solar is more likely to align with peak demand in the summer. And your chart demonstrates that. It just also demonstrates that Texas has a lot less solar built out than wind. If solar capacity was closer to wind capacity, peak renewable production would have aligned more with peak demand in that chart. 

I cannot download the 5 minute data for Jun 28 (chart date), so I looked at the 5 minute data for Jul 1.

Peak Solar + Wind was 21,956 MW @ the 1:04 pm "5 minute increment", ~ 70% of the record of 31,468 on Jun 28.  Why such a big difference? Was the Jun peak of 31,468 an attempt to set a record (bonus calculations) or was there sustained production near that total throughout part of the day? 

On Jul 1, the peak Solar production was 10,198 MW at the 1:04 pm increment.  For the entire day, there were 18 5-minute increments at 95% or higher, or 1. 5 hours at 95+ % of available capacity. All these increments occurred between the 12:04 pm and 1:34 pm increments. 

The peak demand hour on Jul 1 was between 4:09 and 5:09 pm, averaging  65,936 MW.  Solar accounted for an average of 8,107 MW, or ~ 11.7% of the total, while Wind accounted for 11,915 MW, or 17.1% of the total.  Total Wind + Solar averaged 20,021 MW, or 28.8 % of the total. 

The peak Wind + Solar was between 12:24- 1:29 pm, averaging 21,697 MW, or 32.6% of the total of 66,522 MW. 

As you would expect, peak demand on Jul 1 was from 4:09-5:00 pm in the hottest part of the day.  Peak Solar production was between 12:04-1:34 pm, and peak Wind+Solar production was from 12:24- 1:29 pm.

At least on this particular day, the peak renewable production occurred mid-day,  ~ 3 hours prior to the peak demand.

For the 24 hour period, Solar averaged 3,840 MW, or 37.7% of the peak of 10,198 MW, and Wind averaged 11,780 MW, 73.5% of the peak of 16,028 MW.  For this 1 day snapshot, Wind generates almost twice the power as Solar for each MW of installed capacity. 

Not to go CR, but I know from personal experience that Gas & NGL facilities that generate their own power can run at 95% of demand 24/7 for 350+ days/year. They could run at 95% of rated capacity 24/7/350+ if they have the available feedstock (gas or NGL supply), which is usually provided by a mix of 3rd parties, to warrant running at system capacity. A power generation plant is nowhere nears as complex as a Gas/NGL facility; and water hardly ever catches fire.

Edited July 3, 2023 by PTINS
typo. text.

[Dahobbs 17534]

32 minutes ago, PTINS said:

I cannot download the 5 minute data for Jun 28 (chart date), so I looked at the 5 minute data for Jul 1.

Peak Solar + Wind was 21,956 MW @ the 1:04 pm "5 minute increment", ~ 70% of the record of 31,468 on Jun 28.  Why such a big difference? Was the Jun peak of 31,468 an attempt to set a record (bonus calculations) or was there sustained production near that total throughout part of the day? 

On Jul 1, the peak Solar production was 10,198 MW at the 1:04 pm increment.  For the entire day, there were 18 5-minute increments at 95% or higher, or 1. 5 hours at 95+ % of available capacity. All these increments occurred between the 12:04 pm and 1:34 pm increments. 

The peak demand hour on Jul 1 was between 4:09 and 5:09 pm, averaging  65,936 MW.  Solar accounted for an average of 8,107 MW, or ~ 11.7% of the total, while Wind accounted for 11,915 MW, or 17.1% of the total.  Total Wind + Solar averaged 20,021 MW, or 28.8 % of the total. 

The peak Wind + Solar was between 12:24- 1:29 pm, averaging 21,697 MW, or 32.6% of the total of 66,522 MW. 

As you would expect, peak demand on Jul 1 was from 4:09-5:00 pm in the hottest part of the day.  Peak Solar production was between 12:04-1:34 pm, and peak Wind+Solar production was from 12:24- 1:29 pm.

At least on this particular day, the peak renewable production occurred mid-day,  ~ 3 hours prior to the peak demand.

For the 24 hour period, Solar averaged 3,840 MW, or 37.7% of the peak of 10,198 MW, and Wind averaged 11,780 MW, 73.5% of the peak of 16,028 MW.  For this 1 day snapshot, Wind generates almost twice the power as Solar for each MW of installed capacity. 

Not to go CR, but I know from personal experience that Gas & NGL facilities that generate their own power can run at 95% of demand 24/7 for 350+ days/year. They could run at 95% of rated capacity 24/7/350+ if they have the available feedstock (gas or NGL supply), which is usually provided by a mix of 3rd parties, to warrant running at system capacity. A power generation plant is nowhere nears as complex as a Gas/NGL facility; and water hardly ever catches fire.

None of this is particular relevant to what I posted. Solar in the summer is going to be closer to peak level of production at peak demand time than wind is. Your chart demonstrated that. Yes, absolute peak will occur earlier in the day. But in general, solar will maintain high production in the early and late afternoon when demand is highest. And yes, wind has a higher capacity factor than solar when comparing nameplate capacity, although I don't think that is a particularly relevant metric on its own. 

I don't think anyone has suggested that Texas, as it stands, has sufficient renewable generation to power the grid alone. So I really don't know what point you are making. Texas can and will add a huge amount of renewable capacity over the next 10 years. Gas will remain a critical and necessary component of the grid, although at diminishing levels. 

Finally, as a general matter, gas power plants do not run anywhere near at the capacity factor you suggest. Hell, even nuclear doesn't have a 95% capacity factor. And, as a factual matter, gas power plants in Texas have failed to provide anywhere near their full capacity despite demonstrable need. So, no, they cannot and do not do what you suggest. 

[Dahobbs 17534]

11 hours ago, PTINS said:

Peak Solar + Wind was 21,956 MW @ the 1:04 pm "5 minute increment", ~ 70% of the record of 31,468 on Jun 28.  Why such a big difference? Was the Jun peak of 31,468 an attempt to set a record (bonus calculations) or was there sustained production near that total throughout part of the day? 

I figured this question maybe deserved a separate response. The answer is that I don't really know for the particular day. It could be better conditions for renewable generation or it could be transmission limitations on July 1. 

Oh, and I went ahead a pulled the hourly data for 2022.

In June, July, and August, mean peak load was 72,808 MW. Mean peak load hour was 5:00 pm. 

Mean peak solar production was 8,733 MW. Mean solar production at peak load was 7,556 MW. Average percent of peak solar production at peak load hour was 86.51%. 

Mean peak wind production was 16,991 MW. Mean wind production at peak load was 9,668 MW. Average percent of peak wind production at peak load hour was 57.17%. 

As I said, in the summer in Texas, solar lines up better with peak demand than wind. 

[Dahobbs 17534]

Here is the chart of the above if you care. Pretty clear that solar production at peak load stays tighter to peak solar production. 

 

[Dahobbs 17534]

On 7/3/2023 at 11:35 AM, Dahobbs said:

As I said, in the summer in Texas, solar lines up better with peak demand than wind. 

@PTINS, in case you are curious, it is quite seasonal.

• For the full year 2022, wind was slightly better, producing 61.5% of its daily peak production at peak load vs solar at 56.8%.
• During the summer and fall  (June to November) Wind was 55.4% and Solar was 75.3%.
• During the winter and spring (December to May), Wind was 67.6% and Solar was 38.3%.

For the summer in particular, not only is solar better at lining up peak production with peak demand, its peak production also represents a higher portion of total capacity.  Solar production at peak demand averaged 63.1% of total solar capacity. Wind was at 21.2%. 

[Dahobbs 17534]

One final post on changes in the Texas grid that have occurred and are coming, especially in regards to renewables. I've posted charts below showing the additions by year according to ERCOT (as well as planned additions) to Solar, Wind, and Natural Gas. In 2022, ~50% of our generated electricity came from the natural gas plants with ~70 GW of capacity.  Solar, with 14 GW of capacity (although, 4 GW of that wasn't operational until the end of the year) generated 4.8% of our electricity. By 2025, if things go according to the current plan, Texas will have ~47 GW of solar capacity compared to ~70 GW of natural gas capacity. Solar and Wind will, for the first time, actually eclipse total Natural Gas capacity. 

 

 

 

[Pato del Muerto 52501]

On 7/3/2023 at 11:35 AM, Dahobbs said:

June, July, and August, mean peak load was 72,808 MW. Mean peak load hour was 5:00 pm. 

My initial gut reaction was that this is because of the people that have their thermostats on schedules that have the home hotter when vacant during the day but at 5 pm drop it to comfortable in time for their arrival home from work. On top of it being the hottest part of the day usually. 

Edited July 5, 2023 by Pato del Muerto

[PTINS 3472]

On 7/2/2023 at 11:05 PM, Dahobbs said:

None of this is particular relevant to what I posted. Solar in the summer is going to be closer to peak level of production at peak demand time than wind is. Your chart demonstrated that. 

And yes, wind has a higher capacity factor than solar when comparing nameplate capacity, although I don't think that is a particularly relevant metric on its own.  I don't think anyone has suggested that Texas, as it stands, has sufficient renewable generation to power the grid alone. So I really don't know what point you are making. Texas can and will add a huge amount of renewable capacity over the next 10 years. Gas will remain a critical and necessary component of the grid, although at diminishing levels. 

Finally, as a general matter, gas power plants do not run anywhere near at the capacity factor you suggest. Hell, even nuclear doesn't have a 95% capacity factor. And, as a factual matter, gas power plants in Texas have failed to provide anywhere near their full capacity despite demonstrable need. So, no, they cannot and do not do what you suggest. 

DaHobbs; my post was not meant to flame. I was just trying to correlate your post with the data I could find, as I was not able to access the data that corresponded to your post.

Regarding Capacity Factor, I have seen others state, not necessarily on Surly, that renewables need to replace fossil fuels 100%, PERIOD. I look at Capacity Factor as a benchmark, at the extremes. IF, and that's a BIG IF, If the entire grid (`80,000 MW) was powered by Solar, you would need ~ 53,000 MW of storage capacity (@ 90% efficiency) to power the grid on a full 24/7 cycle. My gut says industrial batteries may not be the best choice for power storage.

I actually said, "... Gas & NGL facilities that generate their own power can run at 95% of demand 24/7 for 350+ days/year",  which is not the same as  "gas power plants do not run anywhere near at the capacity factor you suggest". I meant Gas Processing & NGL Fractionation Plants (they remove the Natural Gas Liquids from the gas stream and separate the NGL stream into 5 different commercial products), NOT gas power plants (fueled by natural gas with the intent to generate commercial power). These are Gas/NGL facilities operate on economic criteria and not political ones. Gas/NGL facilities are supply driven; if the supply of gas, and recovered NGL are available, these facilities can and do run at capacity 24/7/350+.  Due do the redundant capacity installed, actual production is routinely in excess of the 100% "nameplate" capacity. We would joke at the end of the year that we already met out 350 day target, "Can we just shut down the plants and go home for the rest of the year?"

To be clear, most Gas & NGL facilities built in the past 20-30 years rely on purchased power in lieu of generated power, with a keep "smoke stack emissions to a minimum" mindset and "save & bank" the emissions for routine maintenance and emergency situations.  As such, they are part of the electric grid, on the demand side, not supply. If power availability is not an issue, these facilities operate at a 350+ days/yr, and at capacity, if the supply is available.

On 7/3/2023 at 11:35 AM, Dahobbs said:

In June, July, and August, mean peak load was 72,808 MW. Mean peak load hour was 5:00 pm. 

Mean peak solar production was 8,733 MW. Mean solar production at peak load was 7,556 MW. Average percent of peak solar production at peak load hour was 86.51%. 

Mean peak wind production was 16,991 MW. Mean wind production at peak load was 9,668 MW. Average percent of peak wind production at peak load hour was 57.17%. 

As I said, in the summer in Texas, solar lines up better with peak demand than wind. 

To be clear, does this mean that during the 5 pm peak load hour, solar is producing at 86.5% of the daily peak capacity and wind is is producing at 57.2% of the daily peak capacity?

On 7/5/2023 at 10:54 AM, Dahobbs said:

@PTINS, in case you are curious, it is quite seasonal.

• For the full year 2022, wind was slightly better, producing 61.5% of its daily peak production at peak load vs solar at 56.8%.
• During the summer and fall  (June to November) Wind was 55.4% and Solar was 75.3%.
• During the winter and spring (December to May), Wind was 67.6% and Solar was 38.3%.

For the summer in particular, not only is solar better at lining up peak production with peak demand, its peak production also represents a higher portion of total capacity.  Solar production at peak demand averaged 63.1% of total solar capacity. Wind was at 21.2%. 

I don't get the % values. Does this mean that Solar is producing "near peak power?" during the 1 hour peak load (5pm) 75.3% of the time in summer, or does it mean during the peak hour, Solar is producing at 75.3% of that days peak production?

On 7/5/2023 at 12:01 PM, Dahobbs said:

One final post on changes in the Texas grid that have occurred and are coming, especially in regards to renewables. I've posted charts below showing the additions by year according to ERCOT (as well as planned additions) to Solar, Wind, and Natural Gas. In 2022, ~50% of our generated electricity came from the natural gas plants with ~70 GW of capacity.  Solar, with 14 GW of capacity (although, 4 GW of that wasn't operational until the end of the year) generated 4.8% of our electricity. By 2025, if things go according to the current plan, Texas will have ~47 GW of solar capacity compared to ~70 GW of natural gas capacity. Solar and Wind will, for the first time, actually eclipse total Natural Gas capacity. 

 

 

From the graphs, Gas combined-cycle new builds basically ended in 2017, and for the foreseeable future, the super-majority of new build power generation is all Solar.   This has positives, and negatives. 

This plays to the strengths, "Solar in the summer is going to be closer to peak level of production at peak demand time."  During the summer, when days are much longer and much hotter, the supply from Solar will dovetail with the peak demand.

Unfortunately, this does nothing to provide the same reliability in the winter.  Solar will have significant zero-power periods during extreme cold weather events, meaning the power generation we had in the past few years is all we have to rely on in the future.  

That is a separate can of worms. "Winterizing" steam generating power plants includes a reliable source of power being delivered to the plant, meaning gas fired power plants, and the gas processing plants that provide the "commercial" natural gas to the power plants, are prioritized, along with hospitals, fire departments, and other essential services.  Prioritizing "for profit" private facilities is problematic, but if you don't, they freeze. 

Edited July 6, 2023 by PTINS
typo. text.

[Dahobbs 17534]

19 minutes ago, PTINS said:

DaHobbs; my post was not meant to flame. I was just trying to correlate your post with the data I could find, as I was not able to access the data that corresponded to your post.

No worries, I didn't read it that way. Hopefully my posts don't read as flames either because that was certainly not the intent.

Quote

Regarding Capacity Factor, I have seen others state, not necessarily on Surly, that renewables need to replace fossil fuels 100%, PERIOD. I look at Capacity Factor as a benchmark, at the extremes. IF, and that's a BIG IF, If the entire grid (`80,000 MW) was powered by Solar, you would need ~ 53,000 MW of storage capacity (@ 90% efficiency) to power the grid on a full 24/7 cycle. My gut says industrial batteries may not be the best choice for power storage.

While it is technically possible for renewables to replace fossil fuels 100% (there are numerous studies on this that I have linked previously in this thread), it wouldn't be economically efficient. And so long as you have some form of carbon capture elsewhere in the system (doesn't need to necessarily be part of electrical generation), it isn't necessary for a net 0 carbon emission goal. From the various studies, it seems like for the US the ideal mix for the mid term future is something around 75% renewable, with the rest being some combination of nuclear, fossil fuels, and storage.  

Absent an interconnected global grid or space based generation (which may actually become a thing), it wouldn't be possible for solar to provide 100% of the grid without an insane amount of storage. But, combined with wind power, given enough capacity, you should be able to build out enough renewable energy to power 100% of the grid nearly 100% of the time even without storage. Again, it just isn't going to be economical. And generally the studies shows that even with storage, everything above 80% is disproportionately expensive. 

Also, I'm not quite sure I understand your numbers on solar alone. You'd need storage capably of outputting the high night time load, which I believe is also 80,000 MW. And I'd think you probably want 10 hours of storage to cover the entire night, so 800,000 MWh. And you'd need to be able to fill that AND power the grid during the day, so you're probably looking at well over 200,000 MW of solar capacity. But again, there is no reason to run a grid on solar alone. If you were looking to run on just renewables, you'd want wind and hydro to help cover you during the night time. 

Quote

I actually said, "... Gas & NGL facilities that generate their own power can run at 95% of demand 24/7 for 350+ days/year",  which is not the same as  "gas power plants do not run anywhere near at the capacity factor you suggest".

Right, I understood you were not directly talking about power plants. But, the implication of your post was that gas power plants could actually run at that level. I just don't think operational data supports that conclusion. It is possible that new build CC plants could theoretically run at a 93% capacity factor. But that would be a new plant, well maintained, with an uninterrupted supply of fuel. The vast majority of plants in Texas are not new (as my chart showed). They are not necessarily well maintained (as we've seen from recent events and need for extended maintenance). And you can't actually count on an interrupted supply of fuel. All of those factors are going to reduce the practical ability to run at that operational tempo.  

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To be clear, does this mean that during the 5 pm peak load hour, solar is producing at 86.5% of the daily peak capacity and wind is is producing at 57.2% of the daily peak capacity?

Yes, at least based on the 1-hour average values (so, not absolute peak, but perhaps sustained peak if you will). 

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I don't get the % values. Does this mean that Solar is producing "near peak power?" during the 1 hour peak load (5pm) 75.3% of the time in summer, or does it mean during the peak hour, Solar is producing at 75.3% of that days peak production?

The first set of percentages (the ones in the in bullet points) is the latter. In the paragraph after I was using capacity as the denominator rather than peak daily production. 

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From the graphs, Gas combined-cycle new builds basically ended in 2017, and for the foreseeable future, the super-majority of new build power generation is all Solar.   This has positives, and negatives. 

This plays to the strengths, "Solar in the summer is going to be closer to peak level of production at peak demand time."  During the summer, when days are much longer and much hotter, the supply from Solar will dovetail with the peak demand.

 

This is largely just economic rather than grid planning. Solar is cheap and profitable, beating out pretty much everything else.  Something to think about, in 2022, average differential between grid load and solar generation in the daytime during the summer was ~57,000 MW. Average solar generation during that period was 6,000 MW. Meaning, you could come damn close to entirely powering Texas during daytime summer hours if we increased our current solar capacity by 10x. According to the planned development, by 2025 we may have 5x the solar capacity we had for most of 2022. Running 5x on the 2022 hourly numbers would have solar powering 47% of daytime demand during the summer.  

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Unfortunately, this does nothing to provide the same reliability in the winter.  Solar will have significant zero-power periods during extreme cold weather events, meaning the power generation we had in the past few years is all we have to rely on in the future.  

You'll see there is also a healthy increase in new build wind generation (14% increase from 2022 to 2025). And cold temperatures are actually better for solar panel efficiency, so cold weather systems aren't necessarily problematic. During the winter storm, solar would have produced the vast majority of the daylight hours if the grid had been operational and transmission unimpeded. 

[Pato del Muerto 52501]

32 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

During the winter storm, solar would have produced the vast majority of the daylight hours if the grid had been operational and transmission unimpeded. 

I wasn’t in Texas for the storm so I cant comment from an experiential standpoint on that, but in general Texas- at least a good portion of it, only usually experiences problematically cold weather as a result of a weather system that would have cloudy skies disrupt solar generation. 
 

bright and sunny 20 degree days don’t really happen. 

[Dahobbs 17534]

14 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I wasn’t in Texas for the storm so I cant comment from an experiential standpoint on that, but in general Texas- at least a good portion of it, only usually experiences problematically cold weather as a result of a weather system that would have cloudy skies disrupt solar generation. 
 

bright and sunny 20 degree days don’t really happen. 

Winter storm was bright and sunny after the first night. It was just cold. I remember it clearly because I had no power at my house despite sunshine and my own solar panels. My house would have been producing heaps if the grid had been operational (or if I had a battery, which I now do as a result). 

[elfenix 34243]

Sheep graze on Texas solar farms as renewable energy companies embrace agriculture

https://www.texastribune.org/2023/10/27/texas-solar-farm-sheep-agrivoltaics/

[Upgrayedd 5812]

2 hours ago, elfenix said:

Sheep graze on Texas solar farms as renewable energy companies embrace agriculture

https://www.texastribune.org/2023/10/27/texas-solar-farm-sheep-agrivoltaics/

Did not know that donkeys are used for herd protection.  Go get ’em Pete.

[Biff Tannen 45690]

2 hours ago, elfenix said:

Sheep graze on Texas solar farms as renewable energy companies embrace agriculture

https://www.texastribune.org/2023/10/27/texas-solar-farm-sheep-agrivoltaics/

"Woolen mutton-men" - John Muir

[elfenix 34243]

4 hours ago, Upgrayedd said:

Did not know that donkeys are used for herd protection.  Go get ’em Pete.

donkeys and llamas, apparently. 

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/80eu2g/donkeys_run_down_and_kill_coyotes_on_a_fairly/

 

edit: wapost just had an article on sheep lawn care this week

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If grass were a crop, it would be the largest in the United States. Turf grass covers an estimated 1.9 percent of the continental United States, according to a 2005 NASA analysis of satellite images, including residential and commercial lawns, golf courses and similar landscapes. Together, these would represent the largest irrigated crop in the United States, three times bigger than corn.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/10/24/lawn-care-mowing-sheep-grazing/?utm_source=pocket-newtab-en-us

 

Edited October 29, 2023 by elfenix

[Boss Hogg 808]

9 hours ago, elfenix said:

donkeys and llamas, apparently. 

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/80eu2g/donkeys_run_down_and_kill_coyotes_on_a_fairly/

 

edit: wapost just had an article on sheep lawn care this week

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/10/24/lawn-care-mowing-sheep-grazing/?utm_source=pocket-newtab-en-us

 

That’s been going on forever. My grandpa had llamas watching his angora goats 30 years ago on his place between Uvalde and Pearsall. 

[Guest]

so they can take out chupacabre, too?

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20400]

We just had a day here in Texas in which 70% of the electricity consumed was supplied by renewables.

Also, this is awesome:  midwestern farmers are embracing solar panels as a hedge against volatlie crop prices. I love the photo of the sheep keeping cool in the shadows of a solar array.  

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-07/america-s-farmers-embrace-solar-panels-to-protect-against-volatile-crop-prices?srnd=green



Also,  Biden's Inflation Reduction Act has resulted in a flurry of solar energy development in Republican-led Ohio and Indiana.Solar panels are the new cash crop in Republican Ohio and Indiana.  I LOVE THIS paragraph:

"Developers are expected to install 15 gigawatts’ worth of new photovoltaic panels in the two states, enough to power about 12 million households. That’s happening even as Ohio has moved to slow, if not thwart, renewable energy projects."

https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/solar-panels-are-the-midwests-new-cash-crop-as-green-energy-booms


 

Edited March 10 by Horn Under a Bad Sign

[troph 24807]

Cross post that in the climate change thread if you haven’t already. 

[Jiggy-Z 3432]

13 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

I love the photo of the sheep keeping cool in the shadows of a solar array. 

I think you just love the photo of the sheep. 

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20400]

22 minutes ago, Jiggy-Z said:

I think you just love the photo of the sheep. 

Well, one of my grandfathers was an aggy, so I can't totally deny it. 

[Dahobbs 17534]

I pulled down data from ERCOT (actually, from here that it gets it from ERCOT https://grid-analytics.ece.utexas.edu/chart/wind-and-pv). Unless I did the math wrong (possible), it appears wind and solar have covered roughly 40% of our total electricity demand this month so far. With nuclear and hydro, we're probably just at 50% for the month. We've also had record solar power output today of 18,877 MW, just surpassing the prior record from a few days ago of 18,356 MW. The top 10 days are all from this year. For perspective, our highest producing day from last summer was 13,726 MW.  

[MonkeyDoughnut 10239]

ERCOT like other ISOs going to need to figure out best way forward as it will only increase. Dilemma is best way to pay for non-renewable plants to not-produce as often but stay "ready" when needed. It's not a simple answer or solution.

[tx 3 putt 76968]

On 6/26/2023 at 10:23 AM, Biff Tannen said:

So Siemens sucks at building wind turbines.  Noted.

siemens is a company that 100% has gone overboard with woke / dei group think

[BabaYaga 15299]

14 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

siemens is a company that 100% has gone overboard with woke / dei group think

Siemens along with Vestas are two of the larger turbine manufacturers out there right now.  

[tx 3 putt 76968]

2 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Siemens along with Vestas are two of the larger turbine manufacturers out there right now.  

siemens has completely fucked up their turbine division. Bleeding cash 

[texasdago 7573]

16 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

I pulled down data from ERCOT (actually, from here that it gets it from ERCOT https://grid-analytics.ece.utexas.edu/chart/wind-and-pv). Unless I did the math wrong (possible), it appears wind and solar have covered roughly 40% of our total electricity demand this month so far. With nuclear and hydro, we're probably just at 50% for the month. We've also had record solar power output today of 18,877 MW, just surpassing the prior record from a few days ago of 18,356 MW. The top 10 days are all from this year. For perspective, our highest producing day from last summer was 13,726 MW.  

Its pretty astounding when you think about it.  I'm amazed ole Greg doesn't talk about it more since renewables have kept the grid up and running during some sketchy times.  Maybe because someone needs to blame Bill Gates...

https://www.esgtoday.com/microsoft-signs-400-mw-renewable-energy-purchase-deals-from-new-texas-solar-projects/

[Post Oak 20215]

 

 

[Newdoc 3440]

34 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

 

 

Peak demand last year In August was 85 GW. I wonder what that will be this summer? But if Texas can get half of that as renewable then that’s pretty outstanding.

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20400]

I hear from a lot of friends that they'd be more accepting of wind turbines but for the fact that "they kill so many birds."

It turns out that wind turbines kill far fewer birds than the fossil fuel power production that they replace:

https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/do-wind-turbines-kill-birds

 

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20400]

On 3/29/2024 at 7:13 PM, Newdoc said:

Peak demand last year In August was 85 GW. I wonder what that will be this summer? But if Texas can get half of that as renewable then that’s pretty outstanding.

I save screenshots of Doug Lewin's tweets to lay down like the finger of righteousness on unbelievers along with questions like "what do you have against clean, low-cost electricity?"  

I just read that Minnesota ---- MINNESOTA! ---- expects to get 35% of its power from renewables this year. 

It's inexorable, and no amount of lobbying from fossil fuel interests will stop it. 

Edited May 4 by Horn Under a Bad Sign

[Pato del Muerto 52501]

Yeah fossil fuels needs to pivot, to have done so years ago actually, to being part of a diverse energy inventory that needs both fossil fuels and renewables to be robust and redundant enough.  And the fossil fuel energy companies also should/should have diversified into the renewables market.