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2022 Volleyball - Stacked as Hell


Js1

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Just now, perfectchaos007 said:

I agree in principal, but in the age of the transfer portal, games where you have a 100% chance of winning its best to give your reserves playtime so they are less likely to transfer. 

I definitely agree but think you can still do that in the later sets after the starters dominate. 

 

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12 hours ago, Rickylovesweed said:

I definitely agree but think you can still do that in the later sets after the starters dominate. 

 

I would expect some playing time for Skinner, Logan, SKT and O'Neal on Friday afternoon, maybe 1.5 or 2 full sets before turning it over to the B squad against Denver.  I would also not be surprised to see the B squad lineup next week, as we play UH on Thursday and High Point on Friday. 

Keep the starters fresh after a grueling 4 matches and get bench some development, because they will be called on at some point. 

It's a long season and Parra or Ewert may have to step in at points during the season/matches to contribute.  Devin got a lot of playing time, which is critical to her development, and getting her more reps is good because Elliot has used her in a double sub situation early on with Ewert for a bigger block.  Having her be able to contribute offensively in that situation is even better.

Props to interim HC Erik (2-0 as interim Texas HC) for sticking with that lineup when UC Davis made some runs and we looked a bit out of sorts, especially in set 2. Would have been easy to insert Logan or SKT or O'Neal, but didn't need to.  The B squad still hit .337 with 5 aces and 4 service errors.  Take that all day. 

  • Bella continues to show she is an offensive weapon - 9 kills and 3 blocks.  Her 5 errors weren't great, but some of that were some iffy set choices by Ewert that put her right into a block.  
  • Caffey 4 kills (on 5 swings) with 2 blocks - I'd rather her get playing time with SKT to get timing and rhythm down, but she's still only been here like a month.  
  • Fleck had 19 digs in 3 sets and 7 assists.  Jesus Christ.  I literally love Zoe Fleck
  • Molly rock solid steady force (7 kills on 13 attempts)
  • Parra 15 kills and only 2 errors.  She should have more playing time, of course.  Her sticking it out this season is big, because she will be a huge part of next season when Logan graduates.  2 reception errors - she's still a bit of a liability in serve receive.
  • Devin tied Bella in blocks (3) - you can't teach 6'4 and she also chipped in 6 kills, some of which were hammered.  She's gonna be good. 
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13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I would expect some playing time for Skinner, Logan, SKT and O'Neal on Friday afternoon, maybe 1.5 or 2 full sets before turning it over to the B squad against Denver.  I would also not be surprised to see the B squad lineup next week, as we play UH on Thursday and High Point on Friday. 

Keep the starters fresh after a grueling 4 matches and get bench some development, because they will be called on at some point. 

It's a long season and Parra or Ewert may have to step in at points during the season/matches to contribute.  Devin got a lot of playing time, which is critical to her development, and getting her more reps is good because Elliot has used her in a double sub situation early on with Ewert for a bigger block.  Having her be able to contribute offensively in that situation is even better.

Props to interim HC Erik (2-0 as interim Texas HC) for sticking with that lineup when UC Davis made some runs and we looked a bit out of sorts, especially in set 2. Would have been easy to insert Logan or SKT or O'Neal, but didn't need to.  The B squad still hit .337 with 5 aces and 4 service errors.  Take that all day. 

  • Bella continues to show she is an offensive weapon - 9 kills and 3 blocks.  Her 5 errors weren't great, but some of that were some iffy set choices by Ewert that put her right into a block.  
  • Caffey 4 kills (on 5 swings) with 2 blocks - I'd rather her get playing time with SKT to get timing and rhythm down, but she's still only been here like a month.  
  • Fleck had 19 digs in 3 sets and 7 assists.  Jesus Christ.  I literally love Zoe Fleck
  • Molly rock solid steady force (7 kills on 13 attempts)
  • Parra 15 kills and only 2 errors.  She should have more playing time, of course.  Her sticking it out this season is big, because she will be a huge part of next season when Logan graduates.  2 reception errors - she's still a bit of a liability in serve receive.
  • Devin tied Bella in blocks (3) - you can't teach 6'4 and she also chipped in 6 kills, some of which were hammered.  She's gonna be good. 

It has been so long since we "broke in" an all-world pin hitter like Devin that I can't remember what the growing pains are like.

It does kind of seem like Logan, and Lexi before her, and Micayla before her stepped in and were a tad more effective than Devin, especially at tooling the block.  Devin has probably been getting by mostly on her stature, though, and hitting over everyone, while the more "petite" ladies had to develop that skill earlier.

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3 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

It has been so long since we "broke in" an all-world pin hitter like Devin that I can't remember what the growing pains are like.

A fair point on Devin. 

Logan stepped in immediately because of Lexi transferring and played in 100 sets
Lexi played in 103 sets as a freshman
Skylar Fields played in 98 sets as a freshman
(Micaya redshirted, we had Amy Neal, YBG and PPC)

I don't think Devin will play in nearly as many sets as Fields, Sun and Logan in her freshman year.

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3 minutes ago, perfectchaos007 said:

We play Denver at 2pm. They lost to UC Davis yesterday 3-1, so this will be another opportunity for the entire bench to get playtime. Surprisingly, Denver has 6 Texans on their roster. 

We won’t sit our starters for another match, so I expect them to play but half the match, or a bunch of subs at the 15 point mark so they can finish sets. 

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16 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:

Is there a game left on the schedule that will be competitive?

 

The Big 12 got 7 (out of 9!) teams into the NCAA tournament last year. Baylor was a legitimate Final Four candidate with Avery Skinner and Pressley as 6 rotation pins, but fell to Minnesota in the Sweet 16 in the Wisconsin regional. 

Kansas was an upstart that upset Oregon in the first round, then Creighton on Creighton's home floor in Omaha, but lost to eventual Final Four Pitt in Pittsburgh's regional in the Sweet Sixteen.

In the regular season Texas lost to Baylor in Waco, and had to rely on a reverse sweep versus KU in Lawrence to win there. The only other time Texas went to 5 sets all season long was against Washington. 

I don't think any team other than KU and Baylor will be close to that level this year, although Texas Tech looks improved in the early going. KU might be improved from last season? I don't think so, but their fans on volleytalk, who I respect a lot, feel that way. Baylor for sure is not nearly as good. They're in the process of rebuilding, so I feel like they can get back to that Elite Eight/Final Four type level again very soon, but not this year. 

Some of the worst teams like OU look a little better this year, but so what? K-State and TCU are both winning some 50-50 matchups which is nice for the conference RPI, but it doesn't make them a challenge to get to the Sweet 16.

You may already know this, so I apologize if I'm insulting your intelligence. That's not my intention. But the top 4 seeds in volleyball are all awarded host status for as long as they keep winning up to the Final Four. It's relatively unusual for the host team not to win all the way through. Home court advantage is too big a factor when you're at that top level. It's not always 100%, but like last year, 3 out of the 4 made it there, with Nebraska's upset of Texas the only outlier. The top 16 seeds are given host status for the first two rounds. 

In year's past, the rest of the 48 teams were assigned on a regional basis, regardless of seed. So even if you did really well as a program, you could end up facing an opening round opponent your resume didn't really say you deserved. This year the top 32 teams will be seeded, and then the last 32 teams will be assigned regionally. That's a lot of TMI, but it means the first two rounds could very well be worse than what they've normally been, and they're usually relatively bad.

By the time teams get to the Sweet Sixteen, they're normally legitimate opponents. Just like Washington was this past year, Nebraska was the year before, or certainly Louisville the year before that. KU and Baylor will be decent opponents who will be at the lowest end of the kind of competition Texas would see in that round. I feel strongly there's no one else in the Big 12 who will be, so the best we'll see from a Texas Tech et al is the kind of opponent Texas would see in the first two rounds, which frankly won't be any kind of legitimate competition for this team in any case. 

One of UT's biggest issues year after year ever since Nebraska left the conference is having an opponent in the Big 12 who is decent preparation for what they'll face in the Sweet 16 and beyond. Certainly the Elite Eight and beyond. As opposed to the B1G, which is a friggin' gauntlet. 3 of the best programs in the country in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Nebraska are there. Penn State is still royalty, even if they'll fallen a bit in the last few years. Ohio State is up and coming, and a legitimate Sweet 16/Elite Eight type of team this year. 

Then you have the ACC, with their troika of Pitt, Louisville, and Georgia Tech, with all world wunderkind Julia Bergmann. I'm hopeful once Texas starts playing in the SEC that conference, with powers Kentucky and Florida, and up and coming programs in Mississippi State, Tennessee, A&M, and maybe even LSU with Tonya Johnson, can provide better competition. But frankly BYU entering the league for 2023 is a HUGE step in the right direction, if Texas plays in the Big 12 next year (and it's uncertain how high the quality of the roster will be). 

But for this season it will be a bummer. The best competition will regularly come from inside their practices. That will have to be enough.

One thing that I love - and I know I'm not alone - is that this year's back row may be the best in the country, and certainly among the best Texas has ever had. We're not as terminal as we were last year without Fields and Butler, but the defense is consistently lights out every match. I still have to pinch myself when I'm watching Fleck, Halter, and Akana make spectacular dig after spectacular dig. 

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6 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

 

The Big 12 got 7 (out of 9!) teams into the NCAA tournament last year. Baylor was a legitimate Final Four candidate with Avery Skinner and Pressley as 6 rotation pins, but fell to Minnesota in the Sweet 16 in the Wisconsin regional. 

Kansas was an upstart that upset Oregon in the first round, then Creighton on Creighton's home floor in Omaha, but lost to eventual Final Four Pitt in Pittsburgh's regional in the Sweet Sixteen.

In the regular season Texas lost to Baylor in Waco, and had to rely on a reverse sweep versus KU in Lawrence to win there. The only other time Texas went to 5 sets all season long was against Washington. 

I don't think any team other than KU and Baylor will be close to that level this year, although Texas Tech looks improved in the early going. KU might be improved from last season? I don't think so, but their fans on volleytalk, who I respect a lot, feel that way. Baylor for sure is not nearly as good. They're in the process of rebuilding, so I feel like they can get back to that Elite Eight/Final Four type level again very soon, but not this year. 

Some of the worst teams like OU look a little better this year, but so what? K-State and TCU are both winning some 50-50 matchups which is nice for the conference RPI, but it doesn't make them a challenge to get to the Sweet 16.

You may already know this, so I apologize if I'm insulting your intelligence. That's not my intention. But the top 4 seeds in volleyball are all awarded host status for as long as they keep winning up to the Final Four. It's relatively unusual for the host team not to win all the way through. Home court advantage is too big a factor when you're at that top level. It's not always 100%, but like last year, 3 out of the 4 made it there, with Nebraska's upset of Texas the only outlier. The top 16 seeds are given host status for the first two rounds. 

In year's past, the rest of the 48 teams were assigned on a regional basis, regardless of seed. So even if you did really well as a program, you could end up facing an opening round opponent your resume didn't really say you deserved. This year the top 32 teams will be seeded, and then the last 32 teams will be assigned regionally. That's a lot of TMI, but it means the first two rounds could very well be worse than what they've normally been, and they're usually relatively bad.

By the time teams get to the Sweet Sixteen, they're normally legitimate opponents. Just like Washington was this past year, Nebraska was the year before, or certainly Louisville the year before that. KU and Baylor will be decent opponents who will be at the lowest end of the kind of competition Texas would see in that round. I feel strongly there's no one else in the Big 12 who will be, so the best we'll see from a Texas Tech et al is the kind of opponent Texas would see in the first two rounds, which frankly won't be any kind of legitimate competition for this team in any case. 

One of UT's biggest issues year after year ever since Nebraska left the conference is having an opponent in the Big 12 who is decent preparation for what they'll face in the Sweet 16 and beyond. Certainly the Elite Eight and beyond. As opposed to the B1G, which is a friggin' gauntlet. 3 of the best programs in the country in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Nebraska are there. Penn State is still royalty, even if they'll fallen a bit in the last few years. Ohio State is up and coming, and a legitimate Sweet 16/Elite Eight type of team this year. 

Then you have the ACC, with their troika of Pitt, Louisville, and Georgia Tech, with all world wunderkind Julia Bergmann. I'm hopeful once Texas starts playing in the SEC that conference, with powers Kentucky and Florida, and up and coming programs in Mississippi State, Tennessee, A&M, and maybe even LSU with Tonya Johnson, can provide better competition. But frankly BYU entering the league for 2023 is a HUGE step in the right direction, if Texas plays in the Big 12 next year (and it's uncertain how high the quality of the roster will be). 

But for this season it will be a bummer. The best competition will regularly come from inside their practices. That will have to be enough.

One thing that I love - and I know I'm not alone - is that this year's back row may be the best in the country, and certainly among the best Texas has ever had. We're not as terminal as we were last year without Fields and Butler, but the defense is consistently lights out every match. I still have to pinch myself when I'm watching Fleck, Halter, and Akana make spectacular dig after spectacular dig. 

No apology necessary.  I don’t know much about volleyball so I appreciate the explanation.

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Our new volunteer assistant is someone from the 1998 Long Beach national champ team. From SA originally and I think lives in Austin now. Her daughter is a setter committed to ND/Salima. 

Wish he had just gone with Khat Bell, she was lobbying for it 

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38 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Our new volunteer assistant is someone from the 1998 Long Beach national champ team. From SA originally and I think lives in Austin now. Her daughter is a setter committed to ND/Salima. 

Wish he had just gone with Khat Bell, she was lobbying for it 

Jessica Brannan is the new volunteer assistant.

Logan Brannan, her daughter, is a senior OH for Lake Travis.

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Just now, Js1 said:

Mixed bag tonight for our OOC opponents: Stanford lost to PSU, but Ohio State beat BYU and Minny beat Oregon 

Kansas lost to Jhenna’s UNLV squad. She had 49 assists 

Kansas State lost to Loyola Chicago. Not a huge surprise, but not the preferred outcome.

The Big 12 isn't exactly hot garbage. It's going to have a decent conference RPI, and it will have several teams in the tournament. But for UT's purposes it might as well be. 

I don't see any way Stanford beats Minnesota tomorrow. Stanford should have beaten the Nittany Lions, frankly, but too many errors, and outside of Kipp, they're not terminal enough. Baird single handedly cost them the 5th set, and Rubin, the ballyhooed outside hitter, has the same issue many undersized OHes do. She has trouble with big blocks and she's not as good on the block herself at 5'11 as the other 6'3 pins out there. 

Landfair for Minnesota isn't quite at the Eggleston/Samedy level, but she's only a smidgen below it. She's the number one reason I see Minnesota as being the best in the B1G. None of the other teams in the conference have an OH like her. And they're really good at their other positions, too.

Wisconsin swept Kentucky, though, in Lexington, so who knows. 

The other thing to keep an eye on is Julia Bergmann's performances at Georgia Tech. She's Eggleston's chief competition for AVCA POY. Texas is a better team, but Bergmann is like an NBA player playing in college. She's a starter for the Brazilian national team, arguably the best national team in the world, along with the US. It's as if a starter for the US Olympic team were to come play college ball for a year. She's averaging an eye popping 6+ kills per set, and a lot of it is from sets that are complete trash. Plus she serves, blocks, and passes extremely well at 6'5. I hope Texas wins the national championship and Eggleston gets the same kind of bump that Rettke got last season to win the award over Eggleston.

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40 minutes ago, perfectchaos007 said:

It is very odd for a player of Bergmann's caliber to choose to take her talents to a historically average program like GT. 

Not that odd. Georgia Tech is chockful of international players. Head coach Michelle Collier was born in Brazil, along with her husband, Rafeal Silva. They both speak Spanish, Portuguese, and English. Here's a family picture. Not hard at all to imagine why she gets so many players internationally, especially Argentina and Brazil.

302072329_755789869062676_673787582786302875_n.jpg

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7 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

She's Eggleston's chief competition for AVCA POY. 

Is Eggleston going to be able to win this award with a team so good and this schedule? 

In the last 2 matches, Eggleston has 6 kills because she's not needed. Texas may only have a couple competitive matches left on the schedule where they don't need Eggleston to play all 3 sets or put up huge numbers. 

Is she going to be able to put up the necessary numbers playing a lot less than other POY candidates? 

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23 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Is Eggleston going to be able to win this award with a team so good and this schedule? 

In the last 2 matches, Eggleston has 6 kills because she's not needed. Texas may only have a couple competitive matches left on the schedule where they don't need Eggleston to play all 3 sets or put up huge numbers. 

Is she going to be able to put up the necessary numbers playing a lot less than other POY candidates? 

Well, the short answer is I don't know. But the longer answer is the stats are more about kills/blocks/digs/assists/aces per set than totals. Which is part of why you see her either playing the whole set, or none at all. Same thing with the other starters. Elliott and the staff want to preserve their per set numbers for awards consideration. Per set she's at 4.8k/s, which is insane. Her attack percentage is .286, but that will go up the rest of the season. She's averaging almost an ace per set (which is a terrible way of measuring a player's service rotation, but I'm Quixote tilting at a windmill on that one). She's averaging close to 2 digs per set, and .75 blocks per set.

But Eggleston's path to winning is kills per set and Texas playing extremely well. 

I honestly don't think there is another legitimate player of the year candidate. I've had people throw other names my way, but they're not high profile enough, don't play on a high profile enough team, or they're not going to put up the eye gouging stats Eggleston and Bergmann will against quality competition. And whatever I think about the Big 12 as tournament preparation - which is pretty worthless - it is viewed as a solid power 5 conference. 

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11 hours ago, Js1 said:

Mixed bag tonight for our OOC opponents: Stanford lost to PSU, but Ohio State beat BYU and Minny beat Oregon 

Kansas lost to Jhenna’s UNLV squad. She had 49 assists 

Based on my limited volleyball knowledge, Minnesota looks like the 2nd best team in the country.

They've won easily against 3 top 20 teams and the only team that gave Texas a somewhat competitive match. 

 

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10 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Based on my limited volleyball knowledge, Minnesota looks like the 2nd best team in the country.

They've won easily against 3 top 20 teams and the only team that gave Texas a somewhat competitive match. 

 

No doubt. It’s such a quick offense and they have a 6’3 setter who is a force at the net. It was impressive that we beat them in 4

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11 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

I hope Texas wins the national championship and Eggleston gets the same kind of bump that Rettke got last season to win the award over Eggleston.

If Texas makes the Final Four, good chance she wins. That’s really tended to be the barometer. If you don’t make the Final Four, you seem to get dropped. GT is good but they aren’t in the tier of Texas/Minny/Nebraska, so they could make it or not, depending on their path. Feels like Nebraska, Wisky, Louisville and GT will all be fighting for those final hosting seeds

From the last 10 seasons, only 1 player won without her team making the final four. The award is voted on before and awarded between the semifinals and finals, so really, the bar is making it to the final four to really truly be in contention. 5/10 did not win championships after being awarded NPOY.  We all remember Eck getting shafted in 2012, but she got the title and Bergsma didn’t  

Rettke - final four (champ)

Lilley - final four (champ)

Pressley - final four

Plummer - final four (champ in 17 and 18)

Wilhite - final four

Bricio - elite 8

Hancock - final four (champ)

Vansant - final four

Bergsma - final four 

Edited by Js1
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8 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

When is the last time a libero won the NPOY? 

To me, Fleck has looked like the best player on the court in every match this year. 

I feel like never? Kinda like how rare it is for a defensive player to win the Heisman 

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Stanford’s win over Minny helps. Really surprised Minnesota was decimated in the fourth set, 25-12. Talent to be the 2nd best team in the country, but I’m still iffy on Hugh McCutcheon as a coach. 

Towson also picked up a pretty big win over #7 Pitt 

AVCA poll gonna be lit 

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Stanford’s win over Minny helps. Really surprised Minnesota was decimated in the fourth set, 25-12. Talent to be the 2nd best team in the country, but I’m still iffy on Hugh McCutcheon as a coach. 

Towson also picked up a pretty big win over #7 Pitt 

AVCA poll gonna be lit 

Minnesota's fast attack is feast or famine. When it's clicking, it's so hard to defend because the ball is over before the block can get there. But when passing is off, the sets start getting too low and too close to the net, trapping the hitters. Their setter, Shaffmaster, is also part of the problem. I guess some of it could be McCutcheon, but I think he's an amazing coach, and am not iffy on him at all, so that's not the direction I tend to go in. I believe he needs a better setter. Going from Seliger-Swenson to Shaffmaster has definitely been a downgrade. 

I've seen Texas have a lot of the same issues since they went to a faster attack. We all have, frankly. There have been so many times when I wish Elliott would have the setter set the ball higher so players like Butler and Fields in particular could just go up and hit it over the block. Even Skinner would do better with a slower developing attack, in my opinion, although I don't think that's necessarily been her issue (don't get me wrong - she hasn't been bad per se, just not as well as she looked at Kentucky). If anything, she seems to approach the ball as if it's going to be delivered faster.

Stanford put a lot of pressure with their serves. CC McGraw, who is considered one of the best liberos in the country (not by me, but that's a different story) was aced 4 times last night, in addition to delivering a bunch of poor passes. Same thing with the 6 rotation OHes. No one looked comfortable in serve receive. 

The Georgia Tech Bergmanns versus Ohio State here in about 30 minutes. The match I've looked the most forward to this weekend.

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23 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

I guess some of it could be McCutcheon, but I think he's an amazing coach, and am not iffy on him at all, so that's not the direction I tend to go in

Overall, he’s been at Minny since 2012. He’s had a lot of talent and has only won the B1G twice and been to 3 Final Fours.  He recruited Shaffmaster and she can’t seem to run his offense consistently. Can’t better the ball. Should be a Final Four team this year, but wouldn’t be shocked if they bow out in the Regional Semis or Finals again. 

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6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Overall, he’s been at Minny since 2012. He’s had a lot of talent and has only won the B1G twice and been to 3 Final Fours.  He recruited Shaffmaster and she can’t seem to run his offense consistently. Can’t better the ball. Should be a Final Four team this year, but wouldn’t be shocked if they bow out in the Regional Semis or Finals again. 

To me that's a little like the criticism for Elliott.

He's in a monster of a conference. Penn State isn't the 600lb gorilla now they were back when McCutcheon was hired, but they were back in 2012. Then you add Nebraska and Wisconsin. Winning the B1G twice among that group and making it to 3 Final Fours is really really good. If they were in any other conference they'd be absolutely dominating it, likely earning a higher seed, and therefore making it to more Final Fours. Like Sheffield this past season, he'll need to win a national championship, so we'll see how that goes.

I don't know. We're all entitled to our opinion, of course, including the hordes of folks who think Elliott isn't a good coach. I don't happen to share that view regarding either McCutcheon or Elliott. 

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2 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

To me that's a little like the criticism for Elliott.

He's in a monster of a conference. Penn State isn't the 600lb gorilla now they were back when McCutcheon was hired, but they were back in 2012. Then you add Nebraska and Wisconsin. Winning the B1G twice among that group and making it to 3 Final Fours is really really good. If they were in any other conference they'd be absolutely dominating it, likely earning a higher seed, and therefore making it to more Final Fours. Like Sheffield this past season, he'll need to win a national championship, so we'll see how that goes.

I don't know. We're all entitled to our opinion, of course, including the hordes of folks who think Elliott isn't a good coach. I don't happen to share that view regarding either McCutcheon or Elliott. 

Then maybe Minny will win a title in 2023 (12 seasons in)

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