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2022 Volleyball - Stacked as Hell

Js1

By Js1
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SL Xpress

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2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Not going to say it's because her dad is a Baylor alum, but...

I'm just saying I'd be guessing. Plenty of people have negative stereotypes about all kinds of things and people. 

But she knew she didn't want Baylor to be her transfer destination like her older sister. Elliott had to do a hell of a sales job simply to get her to consider Texas.

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Js1

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1 minute ago, SL Xpress said:

I'm just saying I'd be guessing. Plenty of people have negative stereotypes about all kinds of things and people. 

But she knew she didn't want Baylor to be her transfer destination like her older sister. Elliott had to do a hell of a sales job simply to get her to consider Texas.

Yeah, whatever the reasons, glad we have her. 

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2 hours ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Undersized teams, like Marquette, really have no chance against Texas. 

I think if Texas loses it's going to be against a team with a good block. Who has that remaining? 

Wisconsin 

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16 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

I'm honestly shocked Wisconsin didn't steamroll Penn State. I got that one way wrong. I've never seen Penn State's OH Kash Williams show anything but one speed - full blast right into the block. I figured the Badgers would make her a liability. 

Wisconsin’s serve receive was ass. 

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9 minutes ago, shadow_operative2.0 said:

Any updates on Hou/Tree would be appreciated. 

UH had a 21-13 lead in the first set, which is basically the equivalent of having a 3 touchdown lead in the 4th quarter. Not to trigger anyone, but Stanford stormed back to win 26-24.

Right now we're in a UH timeout after Stanford took a commanding 9-2 lead. Now 10-2.

You can check out the stats here if you want more consistent point updates:

http://stats.statbroadcast.com/statmonitr/?id=437489

As I type this it's now 11-5.

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Js1

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Just now, Pancho said:

Thoughts on who advances? Chances at the NC?

My picks:

Texas 3-1 over Ohio State
Wisconsin 3-2 over Pitt
SD 3-2 over Tree
Louisville 3-1 over Ducks

Computers still like Texas the best

Quote

Champion
Texas: 31%
Louisville: 18%
Wisconsin: 16%
Stanford: 13%
Pittsburgh: 8%
San Diego: 6%
Ohio State: 5%

Finalist
Texas: 49%
Louisville: 38%
Wisconsin: 34%
Stanford: 26%
Pittsburgh: 18%
San Diego: 13%
Ohio State: 12%

Final Four
Texas: 74%
Louisville: 72%
Stanford: 63%
Wisconsin: 62%
Pittsburgh: 38%
San Diego: 37%
Oregon: 28%
Ohio State: 26%

 

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It's irritating we lost that 3rd set yesterday, even though we outhit Marquette in that set .250 to .212 and we only had 4 attack errors (MU had 7). 

But we had 4 service errors and got aced 3 times.  We gave away 7 points in a 6 point set loss. 

Really promising though: Bergmark hit .600 when she came in for Caffey for sets 3 and 4 (3-0-5) and had 4 blocks.  Caffey hit .000 (2-2-4) with only 1 block in the first 2 sets. Also, Skinner hit .381 (11-3-21).  Late season Skinner >>>>>>>> non-conference Skinner

Quick recap from the first 2 Ohio State matches in Columbus:

  • 3-0 Texas win
    • Hit .348, had 7 blocks and 4 aces
    • Skinner hit .389 in her first match
    • Logan had 15 kills
    • Won despite MB2 Caffey/Bergmark having no kills (O'Neal 7-1-13)
    • Londot needed 34 swings to get 14 kills with 6 errors; no one else had more than 7 kills
  • 3-1 Texas win
    • Hit .297, had 11 blocks and 5 aces
    • Skinner hit .313
    • Logan had 18 kills
    • MB2s were more productive (4 kills between Bella and Caffey) and O'Neal 8-0-16
    • Londot needed 38 swings to get 14 kills and had 8 errors; Gabby Gonzales was the only other Buckeye with double digit kills (10)

 

Texas needs to serve tough and make Londot beat them. Take away everyone else and force Londot to take a lot of swings.  She's hit or miss on errors (had 6 and 8 versus Texas but only 4 versus Minny)

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14 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

But we had 4 service errors and got aced 3 times.  We gave away 7 points in a 6 point set loss. 

This is a misstatement. Saying that service errors are giving away points makes the assumption that any serve which goes in leads to a point. There is no team ever in the history of women's volleyball that scored on 100% of their serves. The typical amount is around 40%. Even while getting completely dominated in the three sets they lost, Marquette still managed a 50% side out. 

There is the problem that if you lose the serve, you obviously don't get a chance at a second one to score another point. But if we project a 50% sideout and Texas committed 4 service errors, you could extrapolate Texas gave up 2 points on the 4 errors, and then another point on the successive serve those 2 points would have granted. So giving away 3 points on service errors. Which assumes Texas should never have service errors, while still maintaining an exceptionally aggressive service posture, which is an absurd assumption. And also giving Marquette the less generous sideout they maintained the entire match, rather than the sideout they had in that set, which was better.

We're also failing to discount Marquette's service error in that set (one of only 6 in the match), and their 3 attack errors, to match UT's. 

The fact is Texas was the better team by a long shot and dominated for the most part. In the one set where Marquette was able to establish some effectiveness with their serve, they looked better. Texas wasn't able to match that on their end, and so they lost. The score wasn't truly indicative of how one sided the set went, because Texas made a small rally at the end to outscore Marquette by 3 when the set was out of reach for all intent and purposes. 

Nonetheless, Texas came back the next set and established who is boss. 

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1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

This is a misstatement. Saying that service errors are giving away points makes the assumption that any serve which goes in leads to a point. There is no team ever in the history of women's volleyball that scored on 100% of their serves. The typical amount is around 40%. Even while getting completely dominated in the three sets they lost, Marquette still managed a 50% side out. 

There is the problem that if you lose the serve, you obviously don't get a chance at a second one to score another point. But if we project a 50% sideout and Texas committed 4 service errors, you could extrapolate Texas gave up 2 points on the 4 errors, and then another point on the successive serve those 2 points would have granted. So giving away 3 points on service errors. Which assumes Texas should never have service errors, while still maintaining an exceptionally aggressive service posture, which is an absurd assumption. And also giving Marquette the less generous sideout they maintained the entire match, rather than the sideout they had in that set, which was better.

We're also failing to discount Marquette's service error in that set (one of only 6 in the match), and their 3 attack errors, to match UT's. 

The fact is Texas was the better team by a long shot and dominated for the most part. In the one set where Marquette was able to establish some effectiveness with their serve, they looked better. Texas wasn't able to match that on their end, and so they lost. The score wasn't truly indicative of how one sided the set went, because Texas made a small rally at the end to outscore Marquette by 3 when the set was out of reach for all intent and purposes. 

Nonetheless, Texas came back the next set and established who is boss. 

You are 100% giving them a free point if you make a service error. They don’t have to do anything. Would we have scored on 100% of those serves if they were in? Idk. I like our odds because our block and floor defense yesterday were darn good. In a close set at this point in the tournament, 4 service errors in a set can lose you a match.

But we won and that’s what matters. No one is going 18-0 in sets this tournament. 

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34 minutes ago, Js1 said:

You are 100% giving them a free point if you make a service error. They don’t have to do anything. Would we have scored on 100% of those serves if they were in? Idk. I like our odds because our block and floor defense yesterday were darn good. In a close set at this point in the tournament, 4 service errors in a set can lose you a match.

But we won and that’s what matters. No one is going 18-0 in sets this tournament. 

 

By that measure you give an opponent a free point every time you lose the point.

You didn't hit the ball over forcing them to do something, so you gave the opponent a free point. Didn't get the dig? Free point. Hit the ball out of bounds? Free point. 4 hits on your side? Free point. Net violation? Free point. 3 meter violation? Free point. There's nothing to distinguish a service error from any other point given to the other team. 

You like our odds? The odds were 50-50 on every serve yesterday. Worse in the 3rd set. Expecting 100% conversion on 4 serves is silliness. 

Not to mention, a huge reason the block was so effective is because of how aggressive the serving was. Aggressive serving means a greater chance for service errors. Eggleston had two of those service errors. That's going to happen. She's the most aggressive server on the team. They're not going to go in 100% of the time. The other two were from SKT and Skinner. SKT has been serving MUCH more aggressively over the past 4 weeks than she did previously, and IMO the team is better for it. Skinner is serving instead of Halter, which not only provides a more aggressive serve, but also allows Skinner to provide a back row attack, even if we rarely use her in that way unless she's playing 6 rotations. 

Texas committed 13 service errors across the 4 sets, which means they averaged 3 service errors in each of the other 3 sets. So Texas committed one more service error in the set in which they were dominated than they averaged in the 3 sets they did the dominating. Wow. What a difference that made. In fact, they committed 4 service errors in the 4th set, too (2 service errors in both the 1st and 2nd set). 

Bottom line, that wasn't where Texas lost that set. They lost that set in serve receive, and not getting Marquette out of system enough on the serves that did land inside the court. But they corrected that in the 4th set, and that's what was important.

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Mittens

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SLX - you penned a great post about service errors last year that really helped me see them as [I now believe] they should be, which is really no different than any other error.  They certainly look worse because of where it happens in the point, but it's no different than hitting wide on a K attempt.  The reality is that both teams are going to have X amount of errors and score Y points.  Maximizing Y and minimizing X yields > W more times than not. 

 

The angst over losing a set to Marquette is pretty humorous.  That's a damn good side that just doesn't have the height or depth to compete w/ an elite like Texas over 5 sets. With as many P5 teams that get into the tourney with <.500 conference records, I'm always pulling for the Daytons, Hawai'is and San Diegos to do well.  G5/FCS schools making it to the 3rd round is fairly rare - none last year (unless you count BYU, which I don't), only Western KY in 2020, Cinci and Hawai'i in 2019.

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6 hours ago, Js1 said:

My picks:

Texas 3-1 over Ohio State
Wisconsin 3-2 over Pitt
SD 3-2 over Tree
Louisville 3-1 over Ducks

Computers still like Texas the best

 

I was an SD skeptic, but after watching both Stanford regionals yesterday, I agree with you on SD over Tree. Stanford’s ball control was lacking and their hitters weren’t as terminal as I thought they needed to be. Plus, the home court advantage may not be as big a factor because it looked a little sparse last night.

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Cairn Horn88

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12 hours ago, Js1 said:

It's irritating we lost that 3rd set yesterday, even though we outhit Marquette in that set .250 to .212 and we only had 4 attack errors (MU had 7). 

But we had 4 service errors and got aced 3 times.  We gave away 7 points in a 6 point set loss. 

Really promising though: Bergmark hit .600 when she came in for Caffey for sets 3 and 4 (3-0-5) and had 4 blocks.  Caffey hit .000 (2-2-4) with only 1 block in the first 2 sets. Also, Skinner hit .381 (11-3-21).  Late season Skinner >>>>>>>> non-conference Skinner

Quick recap from the first 2 Ohio State matches in Columbus:

  • 3-0 Texas win
    • Hit .348, had 7 blocks and 4 aces
    • Skinner hit .389 in her first match
    • Logan had 15 kills
    • Won despite MB2 Caffey/Bergmark having no kills (O'Neal 7-1-13)
    • Londot needed 34 swings to get 14 kills with 6 errors; no one else had more than 7 kills
  • 3-1 Texas win
    • Hit .297, had 11 blocks and 5 aces
    • Skinner hit .313
    • Logan had 18 kills
    • MB2s were more productive (4 kills between Bella and Caffey) and O'Neal 8-0-16
    • Londot needed 38 swings to get 14 kills and had 8 errors; Gabby Gonzales was the only other Buckeye with double digit kills (10)

 

Texas needs to serve tough and make Londot beat them. Take away everyone else and force Londot to take a lot of swings.  She's hit or miss on errors (had 6 and 8 versus Texas but only 4 versus Minny)

I believe in the 3rd set, I saw the Horns commit 3 straight service errors back to back to back….never seen that before….and we lost that set.

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SL Xpress

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3 hours ago, Cairn Horn88 said:

I believe in the 3rd set, I saw the Horns commit 3 straight service errors back to back to back….never seen that before….and we lost that set.

3 out of 4 serves.

When the score was 20-13, which is already practically out of reach, Eggleston committed a service error. 21-13.

Texas sided Marquette out on their next serve. 21-14.

O'Neal served, but Marquette was in system and Anchante fed her middle blocker Hattie Bray a quick middle kill. 22-14.

Marquette served a service error. 22-15.

SKT committed a service error. 23-15.

Marquette made an easy serve, immediate side out by Texas on a Skinner kill. 23-16.

Skinner with a service error. 24-16, set point.

After another side out of Marquette, 24-17, Fleck served 3 times. The first two resulted in blocks by Phillips and O'Neal to make it 24-19, and then Marquette got a side out from a net violation. 25-19 and the set. 

The point being, by the time Texas served an error in that 3 out of 4 serves that were errors, Marquette was already up 20-13, which is the equivalent of a 17 point lead in the 4th quarter. Doable, but it's going to take something of a miracle. The one serve that was in bounds was just as effective as the serves which resulted in an error.

Which is the issue with serving. Serves that don't put the opponent out of system - in other words, the first contact is delivered to the setter within the 3 meter line - almost invariably result in a score, because the setter has too many weapons at their disposal, and the defense can't possibly cover every option. Even if they do somehow keep the ball from hitting the floor, they're on their heels and so provide a weak return, and the offense simply resets to get another powerful attack going. It is tough being the serving team if you can't get the opponent out of system. Just like it's extremely tough being the defending team if the serves are constantly resulting in poor first contacts, which means the defense can squat on whatever attack comes over, and often can field an attack that is in system and overwhelms the other team for a point on serve rotation. 

Bottom line, it's not nearly enough to keep the ball in bounds. The serve must put some kind of pressure on the other team, otherwise it might as well have been a service error for the most part. 

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4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Biggest match of the season tonight. And as Elliot says, the hardest one all year - the amount of pressure to advance to the final four in front of your fans at home in insane. 

Maybe. The opponents will be better in the next two matches, and that can make a difference. But this one in front of us is plenty challenging. It's not like Texas has struggled to make it to the Final Four. 

If Wisconsin advances they'll be rooted against even more so than Texas in Omaha. Which is a pretty big trick to pull off. 11 losses in a row will do that to you, though. 

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