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AUS-97HORN

AUS-97HORN 11756

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Posted

barring ou having some super secret breakout star, or Kstate, Baylor, ok State and Texas each all end up losing their entire starting offense. ou is NOT winning the big 12 this year.     

right now the best money is on Ok State and Baylor, esp with those odds.   what are the Kstate odds, that might also be worth it?

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Blotto

Blotto 23485

Posted
Posted

usually worth it to shop around for your odds, especially on futures where there are always huge discrepancies from site to site. Here's the odds from my usual site

image.png.cbd0061718534a7cbb80614ddfe87456.png

Not hugely different (with the exception of KSU at +2400)

 

 

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AUS-97HORN

AUS-97HORN 11756

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Posted (edited)

i assume the 8.5 just includes regular season games right? no championship game? (although dumb question as I dont see how we would make the champ game if we only won 8 games)

 

I see 7 wins just as easily as I see 10.   

it depends if the players and coaches learn how to make adjustments in the 2nd half.  we all know we blew 4 games in a row where we had more than a 13 point lead in the 2nd half and even the 4th quarter and still lost the fucking game. 

i wouldnt touch that line. 

Edited by AUS-97HORN
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Blotto

Blotto 23485

Posted
Posted

Just starting to dig into the season win totals, and stumbled across this graphic from an article in 247: https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/Blue-Chip-ratio-2022-college-football-15-teams-who-can-win-the-national-championship--190039196/#190039196_6

11191907.png?fit=bounds&crop=620:320,offset-y0.50&width=620&height=320

Factors in the transfer classes and only a couple of weeks old, so should be pretty accurate. Mapped to the odds on Draftkings because its easily searchable: 

Alabama - Over 10.5 -190
tOSU - Over 10.5 -205
Georgia - Over 10.5 -205
OU - Over 9.5 -110
Aggy - Over 8.5 -150
Texas - Over 8 -135
LSU - Over 7 +100
Clemson - Over 10.5 +110
ND - Over 8.5 -125
Florida - Over 7 -130
Oregon - Over 8.5 +105
Michigan - Over 9.5 -130
PSU - Over 8.5 -105
Miami - Over 8.5 +100
Auburn - Over 6.5 +130

First glance, LSU looks intriguing to me. Ive seen the number as low as 6.5 (-113) on some sites.  I guess its possible that Kelly is just a terrible fit in Baton Rouge, and the faaaaamily tunes him out, but 6 out of his last 7 seasons at ND were 10+ wins.

LSU non conference schedule is Florida State (@ Superdome so basically a home game), Southern (home) New Mexico (home), UAB (home). Should be 4 wins there, leaving the SEC schedule to find another 3-4 wins (Miss st, @ Auburn, Tenn, @ Florida, Ole Miss, Bama, @ Arkansas, @ A&M). Basically 8 home games with a shitload of talent, but a new head coach and a question at QB. If I get the O6.5 at -113 on my own sportsbook I'd take it, but right now its O6.5 -145 which dampens my enthusiasm somewhat. 

Need to make my annual trek to Barnes and Noble for the Phil Steele mag. Same conversation every year... Q: "would you like to join our membership program ($25)?" A: "Nope, I buy one thing a year from Barnes and Noble" 

 

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40acredropout

40acredropout 2902

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Posted (edited)

We're back motherfuckers.  My favorite play of week 0:

Nebraska -13 v. Northwestern (in Dublin)

  • Last Season:
    • Both teams 3-9. 
    • Nebraska 6th ranked SOS vs. 66th for NW
    • Nebraska won head-to-head meeting by 49 points
    • Both 0-7 against mutual opponents.  Average margin of defeat:  5.7 and 22.0, respectively
  • Returning production:
    • Connelly's SP+ Rankings (Overall, Offense, Defense):
      • Nebraska- 44, 54, 33
      • Northwestern- 69, 107, 60
        • note this weighs returning players (plus transfers) and also weighs quality of recent recruiting
    • Action Network's Transferring Assets & Returning Production Rankings (Overall, Offense, Defense):
      • Nebraska- 33, 28, 46
      • Northwestern- 60, 70, 61
  • Other notes:
    • Nebraska's scoring offense held them back last season (73rd points/play, 79th points/gm, 23rd yards/play, 71st turnovers/game)
    • They trade out Casey for Adrian Martinez which I think is an upgrade, assuming health.  Also bring in Pitt's OC who should open offense up a bit and I think help with scoring.
    • NW is likely starting Hilinski at QB who was... not good last season.  Ranked 150 out of 156 FBS QB's, per PFF player grades.

Yes, fuck Casey.  But otherwise, tell me why I'm wrong.

Edited by 40acredropout
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closetohumping

closetohumping 17433

Posted
Posted

week zero picks from Brady.  Heard him on radio.  He seemed to do some research 
 

Brady Quinn:

Nevada  -9 vs New Mexico State
New Mexico State vs Nevada Over 50.5
Hawaii + 7 vs Vanderbilt
Hawaii vs Vanderbilt Under 55
North Texas  0 vs UTEP
UTEP vs North Texas Over 50.5
Florida Atlantic  -7 vs Charlotte
Florida Atlantic vs Charlotte Under 57.5
Wyoming + 10 vs Illinois
Illinois vs Wyoming Over 44
Utah State  -27 vs Connecticut
Utah State vs Connecticut Over 60.5
Northwestern + 13 vs Nebraska
Nebraska vs Northwestern Under 50.5
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40acredropout

40acredropout 2902

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Here we go.  Hit 54% on my picks last season but was (am) a regard and my bet amount allocation put me down overall on the year.  This year is different...

I've got:

  • Nebraska -13 v Northwestern
  • Vanderbilt -8 @ Hawaii
  • U44 Wyoming v Illinois
  • U50.5 Nevada @ NMSU
  • UNT PK @ UTEP

Placed bets Thursday... line moved in my favor on 4/5 which is validating.  But doesn't make a shit... feels like I end up losing those ones way more often than I think I will.  Lets go!!

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joeycovers

joeycovers 391

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Posted
58 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

WVU +7.5- $50

CMU +21.5- $50

Fighting Mack Brown’s- Pick Em- App State- $100.00

Oregon- +17- $50.00

Texas- -34.5 $100 

LSU- -3- $100

Bijan- Over 1100.5- -140- $250.00

Also- have a 10 team money line of big 

 

Im going to assume that Bijan number is for the year.  If so that seems pretty low 🤔

 

If it’s just for Week 1 gotta take the under 😀

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AUS-97HORN

AUS-97HORN 11756

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On 8/26/2022 at 4:49 AM, closetohumping said:

Brady Quinn:

Nevada  -9 vs New Mexico State
New Mexico State vs Nevada Over 50.5
Hawaii + 7 vs Vanderbilt
Hawaii vs Vanderbilt Under 55
North Texas  0 vs UTEP
UTEP vs North Texas Over 50.5
Florida Atlantic  -7 vs Charlotte
Florida Atlantic vs Charlotte Under 57.5
Wyoming + 10 vs Illinois
Illinois vs Wyoming Over 44
Utah State  -27 vs Connecticut
Utah State vs Connecticut Over 60.5
Northwestern + 13 vs Nebraska
Nebraska vs Northwestern Under 50.5

5-8-1

not-great-bob.gif

 

and he really didnt have a whole lot of close calls. 2 of his wins were close but correct.  I dont think a single loss was within 5 points

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40acredropout

40acredropout 2902

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9 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

3-1-1 is pretty good to start the year. 

Second season in a row that I've lost my opening bet because of Nebraska.  Lesson fucking learned lol.

Starting to dig into Week 1 matchups a little bit.  Right now I'm liking Houston -4 at UTSA and BYU - 11.5 at South Florida.   Road favorites... I think I'm a sucker because that definitely seems to be one of my tendencies.  

Speaking of tendencies... I looked back at my picks from last season and I need to start doing more O/U betting.  Was 14-6 on those (70%) and then only 33-34 on picking winners against the spread.  

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40acredropout

40acredropout 2902

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16 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

New Mexico State +38.5 at Minnesota. NMSU is ass, but PJ doesn't cover big numbers against tomato cans.

You're historically right and 38.5 is definitely a lot of points.  But the interesting subtext here is Jerry Kill taking over at NMSU and his contentious relationship with Fleck/Minnesota.   Kill has talked shit on Fleck publicly several times over the past few years to which Fleck has downplayed.  Without a doubt, Fleck wants to kick the ever living shit out of Jerry. 

And he can.   NMSU is very much ass.  1-10 last year against FBS teams.  They rank 116th in returning production from that dogshit team that lost by 18 points per game on average.  They gave up 40.9 points per game.

I saw the O/U go down to 52.5 and jumped on the over.  I cannot imagine Fleck letting off the gas here.  Especially since they have 9 days before their next game with FCS Western Illinois, so not like they're looking ahead to a big game.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19063

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4 hours ago, 40acredropout said:

I'm sure I talk myself into adding more but what I have so far for Week 1:

  • U60.5 La Tech at Mizzou
  • O51 WVU at Pitt
  • O52.5 NMSU at Minnesota
  • U51.5 Temple at Duke
  • Houston -4.5 at UTSA
  • BYU -11.5 at USF
  • Utah -3 at Florida
  • Kentucky -16.5 vs Miami (OH)
  • Boise State +3 at Oregon State

WE only picked one bet in common- but we did it the same with the over on WVU v Pitt. We actually teased it up to 53 and took the over to go from -111 to +115 or something like that.  

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40acredropout

40acredropout 2902

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Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, 40acredropout said:

You're historically right and 38.5 is definitely a lot of points.  But the interesting subtext here is Jerry Kill taking over at NMSU and his contentious relationship with Fleck/Minnesota.   Kill has talked shit on Fleck publicly several times over the past few years to which Fleck has downplayed.  Without a doubt, Fleck wants to kick the ever living shit out of Jerry. 

And he can.   NMSU is very much ass.  1-10 last year against FBS teams.  They rank 116th in returning production from that dogshit team that lost by 18 points per game on average.  They gave up 40.9 points per game.

I saw the O/U go down to 52.5 and jumped on the over.  I cannot imagine Fleck letting off the gas here.  Especially since they have 9 days before their next game with FCS Western Illinois, so not like they're looking ahead to a big game.

I've spent a lot of time thinking about this one. 

I'm probably trying to build a case around my fairly uninformed bet but this is what I've come up with.  X-Factor here is Minnesota bringing back Kirk Ciarrocca as OC.  He was in same position at MINN from 2017-2019 and was also Fleck's OC at WMU from 2013 to 2016.  Look at Fleck's teams PPG with Ciarocca (2013-2019) and since (2020-2021):

  • 2013 WMU-  17.2
  • 2014 WMU- 33.8
  • 2015 WMU- 36.0
  • 2016 WMU- 41.6
  • 2017 MINN- 22.1
  • 2018 MINN- 28.9
  • 2019 MINN- 34.1
  • 2020 MINN- 27.3
  • 2021 MINN- 25.5

He comes back to right the ship.  Of note, QB Tanner Morgan is in his 6th year and will be leading the offense.  Look at Morgan's year over year decline within the offense and notice what he did in 2019 (Ciarrocca's last season calling plays):

image.png.0dc95173ca318bd8210805330e9b548c.png

They only return one O-lineman which is concerning but I have to think they will be able to hold their own against NMSU.  Their #1 WR and best RB are both back so there is skill talent there.  

Here's to the over on this one and Fleck bitch slapping Jerry in public.

Edited by 40acredropout
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Wally Pryor

Wally Pryor 5261

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Posted

More from Purdum. Best coaching records ATS (min. 3 seasons)

Minimum three seasons

Overall

Liberty's Hugh Freeze 72-41-1 ATS
Kansas State's Chris Klieman 22-13-1 ATS
Minnesota's P.J. Fleck 64-43-3 ATS

 

Worst

Western Michigan's Tim Lester 23-32-2 ATS
UTEP's Dana Dimel 47-65-0 ATS
Maryland's Mike Locksley 28-37-0

 

Home games

Best

Kent State's Sean Lewis 12-5 ATS
Liberty's Hugh Freeze 39-19-1 ATS
Colorado's Karl Dorrell 26-13-1 ATS

 

Worst

Georgia Tech's Geoff Collins 9-21 ATS
Ball State's Mike Neu 11-21 ATS
UTEP's Dana Dimel 20-33 ATS

 

Road games

Best

Ohio State's Ryan Day 8-3-1 ATS
Tulsa's Philip Montgomery 29-11-1 ATS
Pittsburgh's Pat Narduzzi 25-11-1ATS

 

Worst

USC's Lincoln Riley 7-13-2 ATS
Maryland's Mike Locksley 11-19 ATS
Texas' Steve Sarkisian 15-24 ATS
Western Michigan's Tim Lester 10-16-1 ATS

 

Conference games

Best

Ohio State's Ryan Day 16-9-1 ATS
San Jose State's Brent Brennan 23-13-3 ATS
Navy's Ken Niumatalolo 43-24-2 ATS
Colorado State's Jay Norvell 24-14-2 ATS

 

Worst

Western Michigan's Tim Lester 14-23-1 ATS
Maryland's Mike Locksley 18-28 ATS
UTEP's Dana Dimel 29-44 ATS

 

Non-conference games

Best

Northern Illinois' Thomas Hammock 6-2-1 ATS
Minnesota's P.J. Fleck 24-9-1 ATS
Michigan State's Mel Tucker 5-2 ATS

 

Worst

Georgia Tech's Geoff Collins 4-13 ATS
Georgia Southern's Clay Helton 6-13 ATS
San Jose State's Brett Brennan 6-11-1 ATS

 

In August/September games

Best

Liberty's Hugh Freeze 25-10-1 ATS
Northern Illinois' Thomas Hammock 5-2-1 ATS
Tulane's Willie Fritz 22-11 ATS
West Virginia's Neal Brown 16-8-3 ATS

 

Worst

Georgia Southern's Clay Helton 6-15 ATS
Georgia Tech's Geoff Collins 7-13 ATS
Indiana's Tom Allen 6-11 ATS

 

After a loss

Best

Colorado State's Jay Norvell 16-8-2 ATS
Florida's Billy Napier 8-4 ATS
Central Michigan's Jim McElwain 27-14 ATS

 

Worst

Indiana's Tom Allen 8-21-1
Ohio State's Ryan Day 1-2-1 ATS
Kentucky's Mark Stoops 18-33-2 ATS

 

Over/Unders

Highest over percentage

UCLA's Chip Kelly (60%)
Western Kentucky's Tyson Helton (59%)
Ohio State's Ryan Day (58.8%)

 

Highest under percentage

Cal's Justin Wilcox (64.8%)
Louisiana-Monroe's Terry Bowden (63.3%)
Florida's Billy Napier (61.5%)

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40acredropout

40acredropout 2902

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Posted (edited)

3-1-1 on year so far.

Full card this week.

  • U60.5 LaTech @ Mizzou
  • O51 WVU @ Pitt
  • Purdue +3.5 v Penn State
  • O52.5 NMSU @ Minnesota 
  • U51.5 Temple @ Duke 
  • Houston -4.5 @ UTSA
  • BYU -11.5 @ USF
  • U57.5 Troy @ Ole Miss
  • Utah -3 @ Florida
  • O54 Army @ Coastal
  • Kentucky -16.5 v Miami (OH)
  • Georgia State +12.5 @ South Carolina
  • Boise State +3 @ Oregon State 

bets places but please still tell me why I’m going to lose.

 

Edited by 40acredropout
Added Purdue +3.5 from bar
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19063

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, joeycovers said:

Definitely a tough beat. 

Losing the game in and of itself is fine. When that’s the reason you don’t hit your +350 parley though… grrrrr. Up literally $3.00 on the day. Teased the O/u up while taking the over to get a +110 instead of a -110 thus the reason we are up (barely) for the day. 
our unit bet is 1/20 of our total money in play in the account. How do y’all determine how much your unit bet is?  I’ve always heard you want 20 lives in any gambling situation. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19063

Posted
Posted
On 8/30/2022 at 2:33 PM, 40acredropout said:

You're historically right and 38.5 is definitely a lot of points.  But the interesting subtext here is Jerry Kill taking over at NMSU and his contentious relationship with Fleck/Minnesota.   Kill has talked shit on Fleck publicly several times over the past few years to which Fleck has downplayed.  Without a doubt, Fleck wants to kick the ever living shit out of Jerry. 

And he can.   NMSU is very much ass.  1-10 last year against FBS teams.  They rank 116th in returning production from that dogshit team that lost by 18 points per game on average.  They gave up 40.9 points per game.

I saw the O/U go down to 52.5 and jumped on the over.  I cannot imagine Fleck letting off the gas here.  Especially since they have 9 days before their next game with FCS Western Illinois, so not like they're looking ahead to a big game.

So close yet so far on the -38.5. 

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joeycovers

joeycovers 391

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, joeycovers said:

Colorado +14

Everybody that DM me and sent me 9.95 got my real pick. That was just for the poors 

Sat Picks free of charge one week only. Call me on a recorded line for my stone cold lead pipe lock this week  

Domers over 59 

Arkansas -6.5

BYU -11

Kent St +22

Kent St +23

S Carolina -12.5 

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