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Enchubben

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BigOrange1

BigOrange1 6432

Posted
Posted
On 9/30/2022 at 8:54 PM, BigOrange1 said:

i like:

iowa +10.5, arkansas +17, west virginia +9 (i'm fine being wrong on this one).

 

19 hours ago, BigOrange1 said:

why is nebraska favored by 6.5 over anyone, let alone a 3-1 indiana team

fortunately for me, i only ended up playing 2 of these.

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Assman

Assman 1830

Posted
Posted
On 9/25/2022 at 9:13 PM, Assman said:

13-11 on the season, +3U.

My way too early Week 5 bets:

WSU -4

KU +3.5 (I'm riding this train until it abruptly derails)

Clemson -7 (3U. This is my most sure-fire bet of the season which means I'll probably lose.  I think NCSt is very average.)

NW +25.5

I added UK +7 and Arky +17, so ended up 5-1 on the week, +6U (thanks to the Clemson triple play).

18-12 on the season, +9U.

My early Week 6 bets:

NW +9.5

Texas -4.5 (heard this is up to -7 now, yikes)

Ok St -10

Wake -14.5

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40acredropout

40acredropout 2902

Posted
Posted (edited)

Got smoked again last week.  This year has been brutal... now 35-41-1.  Ouch.

Final card for the week (I like the picks, okay):

  • UCF -3 vs SMU
  • Clemson -20.5 @ Boston College
  • Alabama -24 vs Aggy
  • U45.5 K-State @ Iowa State
  • Miss State -8 vs Arkansas
  • Coastal Carolina -14 @ UL-Monroe
  • Western Kentucky +6.5 @* UTSA 
  • Air Force -10 @ Utah State
  • Nevada -3.5 vs Colorado State
  • Duke -3 @ Georgia Tech
  • Notre Dame -3.5 vs* BYU
  • O45 Tulsa @ Navy
  • Memphis -3 vs Houston
  • Notre Dame -3.5 N BYU
  • Washington State +13 @ USC

 

Spoiler

Week 5 (3-8) 

  • BYU -24 vs Utah State LOSS, SMFH 
  • Houston -5 vs Tulane (Tulane starting QB not throwing in warmups) LOSS
  • UTSA -4 @ MTSU WIN
  • Air Force -14 vs Navy LOSS
  • U43.5 Illinois @ Wisconsin LOSS 
  • O59 Iowa State @ Kansas LOSS
  • Baylor -2.5 vs Oklahoma State LOSS
  • O65 Georgia Southern @ Clemson LOSS 
  • O40 NC State @ Clemson WIN
  • Texas -9.5 vs WVU WIN
  • Pitt -22 vs Georgia Tech LOSS

Week 4 (8-8-1 straight)

  • Coastal -2.5 @ G State WIN
  • U49.5 WVU @ VT WIN
  • Syracuse -10 vs Virginia LOSS
  • Air Force -24 vs Nevada WIN
  • Boise State - 16 @ UTEP LOSS
  • Parlay-  5 picks above.  $5 to pay $105 LOSS
  • Baylor +2.5 @ ISU WIN
  • Kansas -7 vs Duke WIN
  • Memphis -12.5 vs UNT LOSS
  • Ole Miss -12.5 1H vs Tulsa WIN
  • Oregon -6.5 @ Wash St  LOSS
  • Arkansas +2 vs A&M PUSH
  • OU -12.5  vs K State LOSS
  • UNLV -3 @ Utah State WIN
  • USC -5.5 @ Oregon State LOSS
  • Utah -15.5 @ Arizona State WIN
  • 10 Team Favorite ML Parlay -108 (PUR, OSU, KEN, HOU, UCLA, PSU, MSST, AF, BOISE, MICH) LOSS

Week 3  (4-11):

  • O47 Air Force @ Wyoming LOSS
  • U58.5 Purdue @ Syracuse LOSS god fucking dammit
  • OU -11.5 @ Nebraska WIN
  • O57.5 Buffalo @ Coastal Carolina WIN
  • O48.5 Tulane @ Kansas State LOSS
  • Nevada +23 @ Iowa LOSS
  • USC -12.5 vs Fresno State WIN
  • Texas -11 vs UTSA WIN
  • U61.5 Western Kentucky @ Indiana LOSS
  • BYU +3.5 @ Oregon LOSS
  • U58 BYU @ Oregon LOSS
  • U47 Colorado @ Minnesota LOSS
  • Michigan State +3.5 @ Washington LOSS
  • U56.5 Michigan State @ Washington LOSS
  • Sucker Road Dawg ML Parlay:  BYU, Michigan State, Miami, Western Kentucky -> $10 to win $506 LOSS

Week 2 (9-4):

  • Boise State -16.5 @ New Mexico WIN
  • Wake Forest-13 @ Vanderbilt WIN
  • U56.5 Mizzou @ Kansas State WIN
  • WVU -13 vs Kansas LOSS
  • U49 Wash St @ Wisconsin WIN
  • O67 Tennessee @ Pit LOSS
  • U56.5 MTSU @ CS WIN
  • U56 Akron @ Michigan State WIN
  • Notre Dame -20 vs Marshall LOSS
  • U64 FIU @ Texas State WIN
  • U46 BC @ VA Tech WIN
  • BYU -3.5 vs Baylor WIN
  • Texas & App State Big Dick Swinging ML Parlay +8088 RAN OUT OF TIME

Week 1 (8-9-1):

  • U60.5 LaTech @ Mizzou LOSS
  • O51 WVU @ Pitt WIN
  • Purdue +3.5 v Penn State LOSS
  • O52.5 NMSU @ Minnesota LOSS
  • U51.5 Temple @ Duke WIN
  • Houston -4.5 @ UTSA LOSS
  • BYU -11.5 @ USF WIN
  • U57.5 Troy @ Ole Miss WIN
  • Utah -3 @ Florida LOSS
  • O54 Army @ Coastal WIN
  • Kentucky -16.5 v Miami (OH) WIN
  • Georgia State +12.5 @ South Carolina LOSS
  • Boise State +3 @ Oregon State LOSS
  • Colorado State +31 @ Michigan LOSS
  • UTEP +31 @ OU LOSS
  • UNC ML +125 @ App State WIN
  • U51 Clemson @ GT PUSH
  • Clemson -21 @ GT WIN

Week 0 (3-1-1):

  • Nebraska -13 v Northwestern LOSS
  • Vanderbilt -8 @ Hawaii WIN
  • U44 Wyoming v Illinois PUSH
  • U50.5 Nevada @ NMSU WIN
  • UNT PK @ UTEP WIN

 

Edited by 40acredropout
final card
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Enchubben

Enchubben 5510

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Posted
3 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Thoughts on ISU +16.5? I feel like this game is gonna be closer than we think

I teased 7.5 to get Iowa St +23.5 and Oklahoma St +11.5.  I don't feel particularly comfortable in either of those teams winning, but Iowa St just doesn't seem to ever get blown out, and Oklahoma St/TCU seems like one of those back-and-forth high scoring games then ends within a possession. 

I also really like Tennessee this weekend but haven't decided if I want to take them straight up/to cover or tease.

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Assman

Assman 1830

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Posted
On 10/2/2022 at 9:13 PM, Assman said:

I added UK +7 and Arky +17, so ended up 5-1 on the week, +6U (thanks to the Clemson triple play).

18-12 on the season, +9U.

My early Week 6 bets:

NW +9.5

Texas -4.5 (heard this is up to -7 now, yikes)

Ok St -10

Wake -14.5

2-1-1 last week, 20-13-1 (+10U) on the season.

This week:

Ok St +3

USC +3

UNC -6.5

Tenn +7.5

  • Hook 'Em 1
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Assman

Assman 1830

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Posted
On 10/15/2022 at 12:02 AM, Assman said:

2-1-1 last week, 20-13-1 (+10U) on the season.

This week:

Ok St +3

USC +3

UNC -6.5

Tenn +7.5

2-1-1 for the 2nd week in a row, 22-14-2 (+11U) on the season.

I only like 2 plays this week:

Penn St -4.5

Lou -2.5

But since I can't just play 2 games, I added a 6 team ML home underdog parlay: (USCe, Ohio, LT, SMU, TxSt, UTEP).  Bet $20, pays $2,494.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19063

Posted
Posted

I liked almost nothing on the card this week. Smallest number of bets on the year (we started with $500 and are sitting on $1162 right now so we’ve been really hot and not trying to push). 
the bets

Texas -6 and under 65.5- +245- $32.00

Kansas +10 over 52 or something like that- +200

UCLA +8.5 and under 71- +148- 25

3 team teaser boosted by the book to +300:

Duke +14.5, UCLA +10.5, over Kansas state &TCU 49.5.   -$25.00. 
 

I think we are like 4-1 on the boosted teasers this year. 
 

I also guess I like under for aggy at 46.5 or whatever. 

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40acredropout

40acredropout 2902

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Posted
On 10/20/2022 at 5:04 PM, 40acredropout said:

In on U47 GT vs UVA.  Two absolute dogshit offenses.  Defenses aren’t elite but believe this will be easiest or second easiest FBS matchup for both defenses so far this season.  Brennan Armstrong has fallen off a cliff in new system.  And GT QB Sims is still questionable with banged up leg.

Don't have great feel for board overall this week but I do like doubling down on my UVA under play. 

They're 1-5-1 on totals this season (over-under-push) so it's a trend at this point..  this week I've got U48 UVA vs Miami.

UVA put up 16 points last week against mediocre GT defense.  Turned the ball over 4 times.  Kicker is fucked, missed 2 FG's and an XP.  

Miami lost starting QB to injury last week and are likely rolling with their backup who threw 3 picks against Duke.  They put up 21 points against a Duke defense ranked 85th in FEI, compared to UVA's 45th FEI ranked defensive unit.  Miami throws the ball around (15th in pass %) and Duke defense ranks 118th in EPA against the pass.  The UVA defense ranks much better at 56th and currently has the 9th ranked coverage PFF grade so I like the hoo's chances of slowing down the passing attach.

Where Miami / UVA offenses rank in couple key metrics:

  • Turnover % - 122nd, 127th
  • Yards / Play- 82nd, 101st
  • Points/GM - 94th, 124th
  • Points/Drive- 88th, 123rd
  • Touchdown %- 96th, 122nd

 

 

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Assman

Assman 1830

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Posted
On 10/20/2022 at 9:10 PM, Assman said:

2-1-1 for the 2nd week in a row, 22-14-2 (+11U) on the season.

I only like 2 plays this week:

Penn St -4.5

Lou -2.5

But since I can't just play 2 games, I added a 6 team ML home underdog parlay: (USCe, Ohio, LT, SMU, TxSt, UTEP).  Bet $20, pays $2,494.

2-0 last week, 24-14-2 (+13U) on the season.

This week:

Ole Miss -2.5

ISU +1.5

Neb +7.5

And @40acredropout just convinced me to add UVA/Mia U48.5

  • Hook 'Em 1
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40acredropout

40acredropout 2902

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Posted
16 minutes ago, Assman said:

2-0 last week, 24-14-2 (+13U) on the season.

This week:

Ole Miss -2.5

ISU +1.5

Neb +7.5

And @40acredropout just convinced me to add UVA/Mia U48.5

I’m on ISU and Ole Miss.  Line dipped to -7 on ILL and I jumped on so on other side of that from you.

I’m also on U65.5 UNC Pitt and Wake Forest -3.

Good luck!

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40acredropout

40acredropout 2902

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Enchubben said:

So uh @40acredropout what else you got for us?

I've felt pretty strongly about this UVA under train the last two weeks but wouldn't pimp any other picks with the same conviction.  I've got lucky both times where other team is on backup QB as well.  I'll give y'all the full nerd paragraph again next time I feel like I got a real edge haha.

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Assman

Assman 1830

Posted
Posted
On 10/28/2022 at 11:56 PM, Assman said:

2-0 last week, 24-14-2 (+13U) on the season.

This week:

Ole Miss -2.5

ISU +1.5

Neb +7.5

And @40acredropout just convinced me to add UVA/Mia U48.5

3-2 last week (added EMU UNDER after seeing the heavy fog 10 min before kick), 27-16-2 (+14U) on the season.  Props to @40acredropout for the UVA/Mia tip.

This week:

LSU +13

WVU/ISU U51

Miss St -10.5

Pitt -3.5

Wash St -4.5

  • Hook 'Em 2
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40acredropout

40acredropout 2902

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, ocugolf said:

The Under Has Dominated in Service Academy Football Games | BetMGM

I've been kicking around Air Force -7 but the bizarre history of these games is giving me pause.

Army defense is allowing 5.5 yards/rush (124th in country).  FCS Colgate gained 6 yards/carry against them.  PFF grades their rush defense as 127th.  Advanced metrics-  EPA has then 126th against the run, 129th in line yards, 129th in opportunity rate, 131st (dead last) in stuff rate.  So you'd think Air Force offense should be able to dominate.  I'm just not totally sure though... Army coming off bye week and they obviously know how to defend the attack.  There have been instances in past where the advanced metric matchups (line yards) were close to as lopsided and you ended up getting really good games.  Soooo.... I don't know.

Edited by 40acredropout
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19063

Posted
Posted

Been a minute here but this is our official slate (some of these are teased- thus the payout +/-:

Baylor to win- +133

NC  -6.5, Under 63.5- Plus 185

TCU -9, Over 64- Plus 175

TCU -9, -110

Maryland +5.5 Over 44- plus 165

Tulane -7.5- -110

Tenn +8.5, -110 (note- I didn't like this bet but whatever)

KSU +2.5- -108

UCLA -9.5 O 60- plus 150

 

Phillies -1, over 7.5 runs- + 550

 

I wanted to bang away at aggy -3.0 but he said that wouldn't be fun to root for.  

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tejas60

tejas60 3532

Posted
Posted
On 11/3/2022 at 1:26 PM, 40acredropout said:

I've been kicking around Air Force -7 but the bizarre history of these games is giving me pause.

Army defense is allowing 5.5 yards/rush (124th in country).  FCS Colgate gained 6 yards/carry against them.  PFF grades their rush defense as 127th.  Advanced metrics-  EPA has then 126th against the run, 129th in line yards, 129th in opportunity rate, 131st (dead last) in stuff rate.  So you'd think Air Force offense should be able to dominate.  I'm just not totally sure though... Army coming off bye week and they obviously know how to defend the attack.  There have been instances in past where the advanced metric matchups (line yards) were close to as lopsided and you ended up getting really good games.  Soooo.... I don't know.

iswydt

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Wally Pryor

Wally Pryor 5261

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Posted

Well documented that we've sucked In the 2H but Sarkisian has scripted extremely well in the 1H this season to the tune of Texas being a plus 119 points at the half for the season, to date. TCU has been slow out of the gate. And it hasn't played in an environment anywhere close to what they'll see Saturday night. 

Texas laying 4 for the 1H is probably the most obvious play on the entire board this Saturday. That may tell you it's best to sit it out. Not me, I'm on it for a good-sized play. 

May add. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
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Assman

Assman 1830

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Posted
On 11/2/2022 at 10:08 PM, Assman said:

3-2 last week (added EMU UNDER after seeing the heavy fog 10 min before kick), 27-16-2 (+14U) on the season.  Props to @40acredropout for the UVA/Mia tip.

This week:

LSU +13

WVU/ISU U51

Miss St -10.5

Pitt -3.5

Wash St -4.5

4-1 last week, 31-17-2 (+18U) on the season.  This week:

LSU -3.5

Pur/Ill O44

Baylor -3

GT -1.5

Penn St -10.5

Pitt -4

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40acredropout

40acredropout 2902

Posted
Posted

Curious to see how LSU @ Arky game plays out.  I'm on LSU -3, along with everyone I know.  I've heard several pundits (Klatt, Cover 3 Podcast guys, Andy Staples) express their surprise at the line. 

Feels like one of the most extreme examples I can recall of near unanimous consent on one side of a line... we will see if Vegas truly does know something we don't.

  • Hook 'Em 1
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Bodhi

Bodhi 1123

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, 40acredropout said:

Curious to see how LSU @ Arky game plays out.  I'm on LSU -3, along with everyone I know.  I've heard several pundits (Klatt, Cover 3 Podcast guys, Andy Staples) express their surprise at the line. 

Feels like one of the most extreme examples I can recall of near unanimous consent on one side of a line... we will see if Vegas truly does know something we don't.

Este. I’m in on it and don’t understand this line at all

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