US Birth Rate

[hpslugga 4043]

3 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

We have no attention span lol

So speaking of the education system…

[StassneyHorn 6536]

A college loan is a child. 

[royiv 9150]

This somehow turned into a stream of consciousness thread.

[royiv 9150]

Just now, StassneyHorn said:

A college loan is a child. 

Clearly. Republicans don't care about either one.

[chainsaw 9837]

2 minutes ago, royiv said:

Clearly. Republicans don't care about either one.

Can't terminate it

[ChiTownDoc 21098]

Sorry for mucking up the thread.  I was just jealous of all you kid having fuckers hamming it up.  

[Captainant 27442]

53 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

I’m sorry for your loss of your dad. Parkinson’s is an awful and unremitting, fatal disease. Not sure what kind of care would have changed his outcome as that is way out of my area. I’m dealing w Alzheimer’s in my mom and it’s terrible. My stepdad has significant medical issues including bad heart and moderate expressive aphasia and he refuses to stop being her primary caregiver. 

Care meaning physical therapy, not just getting sent home with resistance bands. Care meaning getting a wheelchair that actually fits him so he doesn't develop a sore that causes him to be bedridden and then decay even faster. Care meaning some home care support for my dad to protect my mom who destroyed both her knees, ruined her back, and nearly gave herself a stroke being his sole primary caregiver until he had to be moved to skilled nursing permenantly at the ripe age of 63 until his eventual death a year ago four days from now. A week from 66. 

But for a modicum of an insurance company giving a fuck about outcomes instead of costs, he may still be here today, living at home. Its insideous how insurance companies act like they're there to help you, up until the point you need someone to actually give a shit and follow through. 

This is a poignant example of what I mean by something's gotta change. We're held captive by for-profit private insurers who unilaterally can decide what care you actually should get - fuck whatever your pissant physician said. 

Any attempt to change that system is met by "SOCIALISM!!! COMMUNISM!!! YOULL DIE FROM WAITING IN LINE!!!!" as if we weren't already watching our loved one die waiting in line for care. It's just that we get to pay tens of thousands of dollars per year for the privilege! Because capitalism! Hooray!

Edited July 10, 2022 by Captainant

[chainsaw 9837]

9 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Care meaning physical therapy, not just getting sent home with resistance bands. Care meaning getting a wheelchair that actually fits him so he doesn't develop a sore that causes him to be bedridden and then decay even faster. Care meaning some home care support for my dad to protect my mom who destroyed both her knees, ruined her back, and nearly gave herself a stroke being his sole primary caregiver until he had to be moved to skilled nursing permenantly at the ripe age of 63 until his eventual death a year ago four days from now. A week from 66. 

But for a modicum of an insurance company giving a fuck about outcomes instead of costs, he may still be here today, living at home. Its insideous how insurance companies act like they're there to help you, up until the point you need someone to actually give a shit and follow through. 

This is a poignant example of what I mean by something's gotta change. We're held captive by for-profit private insurers who unilaterally can decide what care you actually should get - fuck whatever your pissant physician said. 

Any attempt to change that system is met by "SOCIALISM!!! COMMUNISM!!! YOULL DIE FROM WAITING IN LINE!!!!" as if we weren't already watching our loved one die waiting in line for care. It's just that we get to pay tens of thousands of dollars per year for the privilege! Because capitalism! Hooray!

This man gets it. No matter how you slice it, the reason your loved ones aren't getting the care they deserve isn't because society can't provide it. It's because society is faithful to a system that doesn't want to provide it.

[Vegas64 663]

3 hours ago, RomaVicta said:

We're growing like mold on this planet. The most celebrated moments in most people's lives is pledging their troph then producing children. The most ordinary things that occur in nature are celebrated like miracles by our species. 

We're slaves to the DNA. And the DNA knows only that it wants to keep going.

If I could persuade people to not make such a big fucking deal of "When are you getting married?" followed by, "When will you start the family" I would do so. But it's useless. People's brains are not in control. People are also basically herd animals very content to be doing what the herd does and has always done.

Of course, you can't imagine the world without your children. Loving that little thing is also built into the DNA.

I can imagine not having children. I have none. It's just as great. I didn't decide not to marry and have kids, it just didn't happen. As I got older, my main concern was that I might go through life without a great love reinforced by intimacy.

I got very lucky. I don't feel my relationship needs children to make it more fulfilling. 

But nobody but the childless late in life will get it. The herd, involuntarily so there's no blaming them, happily plunges ahead doing what the double helix blindly demands.

I've gotten to a place where I find weddings profoundly garish. The reaction to birth in other families is similarly so. You must have the wedding because it's the biggest day in your life. You must produce offspring because it's nature reinforced by social disapproval if you don't.

I write without rancor. It's just my observation from outside of the whole conveyor belt. Mold does not reflect on its expansion either.

This is certainly a perspective. Thanks for sharing.

[Pancho 44455]

55 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Can't terminate it

[Neonmoon 38127]

The problem with Medicaid/Medicare is the same problem it’s always had. It was passed as law in 1965, but yet Republicans would not, and to this day still do not, give it any teeth. Meaning, Medicare/Medicaid are not allowed to negotiate down costs by leveraging their huge client base. The US is the payer for nearly half of all Americans. They don’t allow this because it would hurt profits. The same reason GWB privatized drug coverage for Medicare in 2003. They always push for privatization for more profits. Obamacare only got passed because he gave in to Big Pharma, drug prices can’t be capped. 
 

. 

[RomaVicta 29775]

4 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Actually, you have less ground to stand on than I do in that regard.  I didn't have a kid until age 39, so I am well aware of what it's like to go through college, young professional, and then exploding professional responsibilities without a kid.  Then again, I also know what it's like to have a kid.

You don't.

That doesn't make me better, but I have much more experience than you.

You fulfilled your DNA destiny. It really doesn't matter that you waited to near the end of fertility.

I'm a slave of DNA as well. I just let it down pretty bad by not passing it on.

And, really, from a detached viewpoint, isn't it silly to claim you can't imagine your life without them? I can attest that I am fine. 

Lastly, it's tragic to me that humans, smart ones like yourself, won't see that the drive to reproduce is no longer about survival. It's out of fucking control. Before my post, I saw valid economics arguments about maintaining a growing GDP by increasing population. 

I'm an adherent of the remarkably clear visioned Greta Thunberg:

Quote

People are suffering. People are dying. Entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction, and all you can talk about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth.Jan 13, 2022

In the context of the above worldview, we bitch about gas prices, the dems want to take your hamburgers (a nice reduction of the contribution of cow methane farts to global warming), and we don't give enough of a fuck to inconvenience ourselves because we Americans are entitled hogs. 

One of the great quotes from any movie:

Pat Greta on the head. Ignore the truth that struck you so hard from above (it did me). Stick in the fantasy that everything will work out fine, and I deserve a giant pickup and to keep flooding the world with humans.

It's a juggernaut. We could slow it, but I doubt our drives can be controlled enough to avoid just riding it out to the bitterest of ends. 

At least I had it great. White man, boomer in America. Softest run any common citizen has ever had anywhere. 

Edited July 11, 2022 by RomaVicta

[RomaVicta 29775]

1 hour ago, Vegas64 said:

This is certainly a perspective. Thanks for sharing.

Glad to. I'd like to be very wrong.

It must be comfortably stupid to just dismiss it.

[jimmyjazz 45546]

7 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

And, really, from a detached viewpoint, isn't it silly to claim you can't imagine your life without them? I can attest that I am fine. 

Theoretically I can imagine my life as a mirkat, taking periodic sentry duty to help ward off predators.  I'm pretty sure my imagination wouldn't get very close to the reality.

And yes, I am 100% certain I can't imagine what my life would be like since 2001 w/o the kids that we have.  How would I do that?  Providing for and protecting them has been the driving force in my life over that time frame.  Yeah, I know what it means to be an adult professional without kids, as do you.  What I know is what it means to be an adult professional WITH kids, and you don't.  Sorry, you don't get to lecture me on this and expect me to do anything but scoff at your uninformed opinion.

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

2 hours ago, Captainant said:

Care meaning physical therapy, not just getting sent home with resistance bands. Care meaning getting a wheelchair that actually fits him so he doesn't develop a sore that causes him to be bedridden and then decay even faster. Care meaning some home care support for my dad to protect my mom who destroyed both her knees, ruined her back, and nearly gave herself a stroke being his sole primary caregiver until he had to be moved to skilled nursing permenantly at the ripe age of 63 until his eventual death a year ago four days from now. A week from 66. 

But for a modicum of an insurance company giving a fuck about outcomes instead of costs, he may still be here today, living at home. Its insideous how insurance companies act like they're there to help you, up until the point you need someone to actually give a shit and follow through. 

This is a poignant example of what I mean by something's gotta change. We're held captive by for-profit private insurers who unilaterally can decide what care you actually should get - fuck whatever your pissant physician said. 

Any attempt to change that system is met by "SOCIALISM!!! COMMUNISM!!! YOULL DIE FROM WAITING IN LINE!!!!" as if we weren't already watching our loved one die waiting in line for care. It's just that we get to pay tens of thousands of dollars per year for the privilege! Because capitalism! Hooray!

This is the argument that totally befuddles the righties. 

"I don't want the government deciding what procedures I need!!!"

Me: "Do you know what an insurance actuary does? How many gofundme campaigns have you contributed to for people who had insurance, but the company wouldn't pay for a treatment because it was too expensive?"

"But the government!!"

Me: "Who would you rather make decisions about your care? An insurance company representative that would rather let you die than take a loss on your policy so he can earn a bonus? Or a government employee that has no financial interest either way? 

"......but the government....." 

Me: "Sigh"

[Fudge Nuggets 19146]

3 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I was just jealous of all you kid having fuckers hamming it up.  

I’ll sell you one of mine. 

[troph 24562]

6 hours ago, Bullneck said:

Just curious: which places fall into this category?

Northern European countries are the closest and within the circle even if too far or not far enough. The US was closer before - used to ebb and flow outside the circle with not enough regulation of capitalism, and in its worst times far from it. We are in one of the worst of times chapters. But even then the US is light years ahead of Russia or China or India. 

[RomaVicta 29775]

59 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Theoretically I can imagine my life as a mirkat, taking periodic sentry duty to help ward off predators.  I'm pretty sure my imagination wouldn't get very close to the reality.

And yes, I am 100% certain I can't imagine what my life would be like since 2001 w/o the kids that we have.  How would I do that?  Providing for and protecting them has been the driving force in my life over that time frame.  Yeah, I know what it means to be an adult professional without kids, as do you.  What I know is what it means to be an adult professional WITH kids, and you don't.  Sorry, you don't get to lecture me on this and expect me to do anything but scoff at your uninformed opinion.

You took this way too personally. I'm not lecturing you on anything.

And I don't care about your kids. Live it up with them.

[Bullneck 18987]

Just now, troph said:

Northern European countries are the closest and within the circle even if too far or not far enough. The US was closer before - used to ebb and flow outside the circle with not enough regulation of capitalism, and in its worst times far from it. We are in one of the worst of times chapters. But even then the US is light years ahead of Russia or China or India. 

Northern Europe - you're talking about the Happy Finns and the Danes, whose prime minister told Trump to fuck off a couple of years ago?  

Sounds a bit like "that place is so crowded no one goes there anymore."

Just so I understand (not arguing, just want to make sure I have it right), these are the people who are overwhelmed by regulation they are on the verge of killing productivity/creativity?  

[Bullneck 18987]

3 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

A college loan is a child. 

Corporations are people!

[troph 24562]

9 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

Northern Europe - you're talking about the Happy Finns and the Danes, whose prime minister told Trump to fuck off a couple of years ago?  

Sounds a bit like "that place is so crowded no one goes there anymore."

Just so I understand (not arguing, just want to make sure I have it right), these are the people who are overwhelmed by regulation they are on the verge of killing productivity/creativity?  

I don’t understand what point you’re trying to make. I’ve been really clear I’m a proponent of liberal democracies that have a well regulated capitalist economy as the best system period and the best to innovate out of the climate mess.  The US has rarely had enough regulation though it has gotten close at times in some key areas. Northern European economies are within the circle of enough usually even if someone argues well it’s too much or too little (I’m saying they are close either way).

 

Edited July 11, 2022 by troph

[troph 24562]

6 hours ago, chainsaw said:

Medicaid is not a fundamentally capitalist idea. I'm glad your group accepts Medicaid, and I would even bet you are happier to deal with it as a payor than a private insurer.

Texas has dogshit policy, on this we agree. But the so-called free market is not doing a good job of allocating vital healthcare resources. Texas is theoretically more "free" of a market because it has less government intervention, and you're saying Texas has worse healthcare despite having some of the best doctors on the planet.

I agree with all of this, and Texas might as well finish the spelling with tan as in Texastan given how poorly our outcomes are for wellbeing, it’s completely atrocious and unacceptable. But you focus on the word free like it can’t exist in relationship with restraint, and it can.  Free without restraint isn’t the goal.  Not even close. Texas is wrong for not accepting Medicaid expansion dollars and the Feds didn’t go far enough. There’s that nuance, the regulated part of my equation. 

[chainsaw 9837]

2 minutes ago, troph said:

I agree with all of this, and Texas might as well finish the spelling with tan as in Texastan given how poorly our outcomes are for wellbeing, it’s completely atrocious and unacceptable. But you focus on the word free like it can’t exist in relationship with restraint, and it can.  Free without restraint isn’t the goal.  Not even close. Texas is wrong for not accepting Medicaid expansion dollars and the Feds didn’t go far enough. There’s that nuance, the regulated part of my equation. 

Regulations are flouted all the time. There are people crazy enough to sell and buy marijuana in Singapore. By allowing greed to determine who gets what resources, how much of the resource is even produced or available at a given time in a given locale, and how much of the resource someone can get based not on what they need but on what can be paid for, people are suffering and dying.

The current system is so complicated that a pharmacist can't even tell you what your drugs cost unless they type a bunch of information into their computer. A nurse tending to you in the ER and doing a bunch of stuff has no idea what kind of a bill they are running up for you. The doctor almost never knows, either. It's so incredibly inefficient.

It does not have to be this inefficient. There's more than enough resources for everyone to have their needs met. If our job is to ensure that nobody's needs go unmet, we have failed spectacularly.

[chainsaw 9837]

33 minutes ago, troph said:

Northern European countries are the closest and within the circle even if too far or not far enough. The US was closer before - used to ebb and flow outside the circle with not enough regulation of capitalism, and in its worst times far from it. We are in one of the worst of times chapters. But even then the US is light years ahead of Russia or China or India. 

Russia sucks, but it's a mafia state.

China is doing a pretty damn good job with healthcare considering how many people it has and how geographically vast it is. Sure, we are ahead of it, but we aren't "lightyears" ahead of it, and they probably get far more value for what is spent than we do.

India as I understand it is a mecca for medical tourism. I've heard that you can get comparable care there for a fraction of the cost. But I will agree that the median quality is absolute dogshit and the good facilities are capitalist as hell and fully private. Inequality is on a whole other level there due to centuries of a literal class system. It's a huge indictment of capitalism, and their current PM is racist as hell too.

[troph 24562]

5 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Regulations are flouted all the time. There are people crazy enough to sell and buy marijuana in Singapore. By allowing greed to determine who gets what resources, how much of the resource is even produced or available at a given time in a given locale, and how much of the resource someone can get based not on what they need but on what can be paid for, people are suffering and dying.

The current system is so complicated that a pharmacist can't even tell you what your drugs cost unless they type a bunch of information into their computer. A nurse tending to you in the ER and doing a bunch of stuff has no idea what kind of a bill they are running up for you. The doctor almost never knows, either. It's so incredibly inefficient.

It does not have to be this inefficient. There's more than enough resources for everyone to have their needs met. If our job is to ensure that nobody's needs go unmet, we have failed spectacularly.

Agreed and if we are to save the planet we as a people are going to have to fix this system not throw it all out. And throwing it out isn’t even remotely possible either. Fundamentally you fail to realize the same system you hate is the dominate innovation engine. And right now, we will only beat climate change with innovation AND reform. 

[troph 24562]

6 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Russia sucks, but it's a mafia state.

China is doing a pretty damn good job with healthcare considering how many people it has and how geographically vast it is. Sure, we are ahead of it, but we aren't "lightyears" ahead of it, and they probably get far more value for what is spent than we do.

India as I understand it is a mecca for medical tourism. I've heard that you can get comparable care there for a fraction of the cost. But I will agree that the median quality is absolute dogshit and the good facilities are capitalist as hell and fully private. Inequality is on a whole other level there due to centuries of a literal class system. It's a huge indictment of capitalism, and their current PM is racist as hell too.

Are you fucking kidding? Modern China is one of the biggest abusers of human rights the world has ever seen. God bless. I’m sorry I engaged again. Have fun.

Edited July 11, 2022 by troph

[chainsaw 9837]

1 minute ago, troph said:

Are you fucking kidding? Modern China is one of the biggest abusers of human rights the world has ever seen. God bless. 

This is a discussion about efficiently providing healthcare to people. Nobody has a clean human rights record, especially not us. Nothing China is doing to violate human rights is necessary for what they have accomplished in terms of infrastructure or providing healthcare. They need to do a lot better on that front. But you're the one claiming China is "lightyears" behind us in healthcare. They aren't that far behind from what I can tell.

[troph 24562]

These are the economies to emulate:

 

 

they are all liberal democracies with regulated capitalism. The US should looked to those ahead of it, not behind it for ideas on healthcare, climate change, income and wealth inequality and labor rights. 
 

i’m done talking to someone who keeps pointing to communist states like China as the example of who to emulate. Given China’s economic size you’d think they would be world leaders in innovation, they are not. They steal IP and make stuff cheaply while abusing their own population when it’s convenient. India is a developing country with squalor, corruption, mass poverty and a climate record that will drag us to hell.  If you want to talk about European societies as they have advanced as societies to admire then there are strong arguments to be made as innovation remains a core strength of theirs.

Edited July 11, 2022 by troph

[troph 24562]

10 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

This is a discussion about efficiently providing healthcare to people. Nobody has a clean human rights record, especially not us. Nothing China is doing to violate human rights is necessary for what they have accomplished in terms of infrastructure or providing healthcare. They need to do a lot better on that front. But you're the one claiming China is "lightyears" behind us in healthcare. They aren't that far behind from what I can tell.

Their zero covid policy is absolutely healthcare and its imprisoned their people in their homes for months at a time. Their human rights record is very much tied to their healthcare policy. 

[horn4life 3755]

On 7/9/2022 at 12:03 PM, Biff Tannen said:

I've been hearing from right wingers about the "issue" of the US birth rate declining and how this is some huge problem.  Is this just feeding into their replacement theory nonsense or is there some actual problem with population decline?

Yeah... same problem as always.  White folks like money more than kids, but they need kids.  Especially with Facebook!  

The story has always been the fucking same.  Immigrants are laborers, because of a language or education barrier. This is numerically true, despite all the engineering hires because the US doesn't produce enough.  And poor people view children as potential income for the family unit.   A lot of folks I know love the shit out of their one kid.  IT WILL ALWAYS BE THIS WAY.

But if you want to know about why Republicans are concerned?  Find a way NOT to say racism..

[immamac 42516]

this is a great thread so far. keep it up folks.

I work for a very large corp now and I have seen first hand how much innovation is lacking when you can make money by doing something far less innovative. Mind you, not even more money, just less risky money that is garbage margin is preferred over something that is hard to do, has a little bit of risk and has terrific value added margins because it actually helps solve a problem.

We have moved away from solving problems, and moved into figuring out how to fleece people out of money on things they need. 

I've done a lot of thinking recently about starting an insurance co-op within my friend network. With some up front money and 2-3 years of everyone just paying their current auto rates we would have enough to provide free insurance for everyone after that as long as people don't start getting into a bunch of wrecks etc. 

I'm not saying marketing jobs are worthless, but paying the marketing and advertising fees is what is killing american consumers - our prices are so out of whack so that people can make tremendous profit margins, when a smaller equally or more competent servicer can provide the same service for far less overhead. What we need is trust busting, big stick economic policy to come back and we need to give power back to much smaller employers who service a much smaller customer base.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11806]

Quote

We have moved away from solving problems, and moved into figuring out how to fleece people out of money on things they need. 

This is the crux.   I’m as guilty as anyone else, but yeah, this is currently America.

[Neonmoon 38127]

18 minutes ago, immamac said:

What we need is trust busting, big stick economic policy to come back and we need to give power back to much smaller employers who service a much smaller customer base.

Yes we do. I will vote for it. But as others as have said, the wolves are already in the hen house. Corporations are people. Dark money is legal. Corruption is the rule, not the exception. They bought the News and have convinced the poor to vote FOR policies that benefit the rich. We literally have a Bond villain (Murdoch aka Elliot Carver) manipulating information to control the population.

[David Dennison 18652]

37 minutes ago, immamac said:

this is a great thread so far. keep it up folks.

I work for a very large corp now and I have seen first hand how much innovation is lacking when you can make money by doing something far less innovative. Mind you, not even more money, just less risky money that is garbage margin is preferred over something that is hard to do, has a little bit of risk and has terrific value added margins because it actually helps solve a problem.

We have moved away from solving problems, and moved into figuring out how to fleece people out of money on things they need. 

I've done a lot of thinking recently about starting an insurance co-op within my friend network. With some up front money and 2-3 years of everyone just paying their current auto rates we would have enough to provide free insurance for everyone after that as long as people don't start getting into a bunch of wrecks etc. 

I'm not saying marketing jobs are worthless, but paying the marketing and advertising fees is what is killing american consumers - our prices are so out of whack so that people can make tremendous profit margins, when a smaller equally or more competent servicer can provide the same service for far less overhead. What we need is trust busting, big stick economic policy to come back and we need to give power back to much smaller employers who service a much smaller customer base.

 

[immamac 42516]

1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

 

I mean fuck it - should we start a surly insurance co-op?

[Vegas64 663]

4 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Theoretically I can imagine my life as a mirkat, taking periodic sentry duty to help ward off predators.  I'm pretty sure my imagination wouldn't get very close to the reality.

And yes, I am 100% certain I can't imagine what my life would be like since 2001 w/o the kids that we have.  How would I do that?  Providing for and protecting them has been the driving force in my life over that time frame.  Yeah, I know what it means to be an adult professional without kids, as do you.  What I know is what it means to be an adult professional WITH kids, and you don't.  Sorry, you don't get to lecture me on this and expect me to do anything but scoff at your uninformed opinion.

The guy is quoting the movie Fight Club and Greta Thunberg as his appeals to authority, just let him go he's on a roll.

But he does have his own unique perspective, as we all do, that informs our unique realities in a sea of potentially a larger or interconnected shared reality. If we lead with empathy and assume positive intent, we can just appreciate his point of view even if he ignorantly tries to pass it off as definitive or universal in truth.

I appreciated the share and think you might have taken him a little too personal, but I get why you did.

[Vegas64 663]

2 hours ago, immamac said:

this is a great thread so far. keep it up folks.

I work for a very large corp now and I have seen first hand how much innovation is lacking when you can make money by doing something far less innovative. Mind you, not even more money, just less risky money that is garbage margin is preferred over something that is hard to do, has a little bit of risk and has terrific value added margins because it actually helps solve a problem.

We have moved away from solving problems, and moved into figuring out how to fleece people out of money on things they need. 

I've done a lot of thinking recently about starting an insurance co-op within my friend network. With some up front money and 2-3 years of everyone just paying their current auto rates we would have enough to provide free insurance for everyone after that as long as people don't start getting into a bunch of wrecks etc. 

I'm not saying marketing jobs are worthless, but paying the marketing and advertising fees is what is killing american consumers - our prices are so out of whack so that people can make tremendous profit margins, when a smaller equally or more competent servicer can provide the same service for far less overhead. What we need is trust busting, big stick economic policy to come back and we need to give power back to much smaller employers who service a much smaller customer base.

Not to get business-y here, but I think you are definitely missing out how crucial Advertising, Sales & Marketing is for businesses. And this is coming from someone who thinks those people all suck.

In my space, the best-in-breed orgs and probably your org (but maybe not, sounds like you work for a stupid old monolith like IBM from your post) run at about 40% SG&A to revenue from what I understand. I got a look at a Decacorn, high-flying SaaS company two weeks ago who was at like 80%.

In this attention-based economy, as challengers or disruptors or literally anyone but the top 3 in Gartner's MQ, you can't grow a real business without Marketing, Ads, Sales, etc. and the customer acquisition costs and cost of goods sold has to be passed on, at least in part, to the consumer as part of the price for a business to survive, much less grow. My opinion at least.

But your idea intrigues me; I've had that idea in the past and have a tangential one as well. I'll follow your medium blog if you blog your journey for learnings.

[immamac 42516]

5 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

Not to get business-y here, but I think you are definitely missing out how crucial Advertising, Sales & Marketing is for businesses. And this is coming from someone who thinks those people all suck.

In my space, the best-in-breed orgs and probably your org (but maybe not, sounds like you work for a stupid old monolith like IBM from your post) run at about 40% SG&A to revenue from what I understand. I got a look at a Decacorn, high-flying SaaS company two weeks ago who was at like 80%.

In this attention-based economy, as challengers or disruptors or literally anyone but the top 3 in Gartner's MQ, you can't grow a real business without Marketing, Ads, Sales, etc. and the customer acquisition costs and cost of goods sold has to be passed on, at least in part, to the consumer as part of the price for a business to survive, much less grow. My opinion at least.

But your idea intrigues me; I've had that idea in the past and have a tangential one as well. I'll follow your medium blog if you blog your journey for learnings.

This is a fallacy perpetuated by venture capital and private equity. What actually happens for lean, innovative companies is they get bought in back room deals and get price hiked or shut down because it is destructive to less intrinsically valuable, but high existing incumbent technology revenue. 

Marketing and advertising is not as important as solving fucking problems. If you can solve a problem and have people talk about how solving that problem in a repeatable way at a certain cost point exists at a reputable level, all it takes is time. All marketing does is accelerate the timeline, which is not as valuable as it sounds, because it will actually retard true innovation in favor of maintenance on existing to feed the masses. 

The amount of intellectual property bought/owned that goes completely unused, except to deter true innovation by enormous tech is actually incredible. 

How did ARM catch up to an entrenched x86 instruction set so quickly if it's so valuable? Why is RISC-V catching up even faster than ARM ever did?

It's because the IP isn't held hostage by mega corps who weaponize it to stifle innovation. It's used as a tool to further innovation with partners. It's why open source is so important to the entire world right now - all the real innovation that we know and love about today's technological world is based entirely on open source, because no one could stop the innovation from happening. 

I'd argue a real business doesn't need 8 or 9 or 10 figures in revenue at an 8 9 or 10 figure loss. 

[Vegas64 663]

1 minute ago, immamac said:

This is a fallacy perpetuated by venture capital and private equity. What actually happens for lean, innovative companies is they get bought in back room deals and get price hiked or shut down because it is destructive to less intrinsically valuable, but high existing incumbent technology revenue. 

Marketing and advertising is not as important as solving fucking problems. If you can solve a problem and have people talk about how solving that problem in a repeatable way at a certain cost point exists at a reputable level, all it takes is time. All marketing does is accelerate the timeline, which is not as valuable as it sounds, because it will actually retard true innovation in favor of maintenance on existing to feed the masses. 

The amount of intellectual property bought/owned that goes completely unused, except to deter true innovation by enormous tech is actually incredible. 

How did ARM catch up to an entrenched x86 instruction set so quickly if it's so valuable? Why is RISC-V catching up even faster than ARM ever did?

It's because the IP isn't held hostage by mega corps who weaponize it to stifle innovation. It's used as a tool to further innovation with partners. It's why open source is so important to the entire world right now - all the real innovation that we know and love about today's technological world is based entirely on open source, because no one could stop the innovation from happening. 

I'd argue a real business doesn't need 8 or 9 or 10 figures in revenue at an 8 9 or 10 figure loss. 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if I am boiling down your position to a single thesis, it's "An amazing product solving a real problem will sell itself. All you need to do is create it and put it on the open market / appstore / website and if it is truly good and solving real problems, it will succeed in the long run."

And I think those halcyon days are over except for bleeding edge industries which have yet to be saturated. 

[immamac 42516]

5 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if I am boiling down your position to a single thesis, it's "An amazing product solving a real problem will sell itself. All you need to do is create it and put it on the open market / appstore / website and if it is truly good and solving real problems, it will succeed in the long run."

And I think those halcyon days are over except for bleeding edge industries which have yet to be saturated. 

No, you need success stories. A highly rated product that solves a real world problem and is appropriately priced will be successful, but all those products/companies get bought early for absurd money (no fault to the founders) because they are a direct threat to the value of entrenched technology. 

It's why open source is such a strong weapon - even if it gets bought the intellectual property is merely a "you are required to shout us out" not a "you can't use this anymore"

When you look at open source projects/products/companies that are purchased and then sabotage the codebase by close sourcing it or fuck the licensing up they just get forked and taken forward by others under the original OSS license. The inability to kill Linux is why Linux is so great. No one "owns" Linux even though it generates trillions of dollars of value.

[TwiceHorn 31264]

Well, as an IP attorney, I can tell you that for a long time, maybe nearly forever, technological superiority often loses out to other considerations, and not necessarily marketing.

Software may be a little different because there's less capex beyond the R/D itself.

And, point of fact, Intel galactically failed at protecting the x86 architecture by IP, because they cross-licensed everyone.  It became the incumbent architecture for other reasons, probably similar to M$ and Windows, and, Intel notoriously did a bunch of anti-competitive shit like M$ to keep x86 processors dominant.

But, it is I think correct that the short-term profitability/revenue model that US corporations so relentlessly pursue in the post-Welch era is bad for innovation.

 

Edited July 11, 2022 by TwiceHorn

[TwiceHorn 31264]

Back on topic.  Not sure if it has been said, but this whole birth rate thing may or may not be true, but it's a hobgoblin of the nationalist right, hand in hand with replacement theory.

I first heard complaints about low birth rate from my Hungarian FIL before Orban, or Trump.  Hungary has, admittedly, over time experienced some existential threats and it does have some unique cultural, mainly linguistic aspects that are arguably worth preserving.

So the ground work of "Hungary may become extinct" is a bit more legitimate than in the US, for example. 

But it's still more of a right wing nationalist talking point than anything else.

[956 Worldwide 34422]

Birth rates are falling fast in the U.S. They’re falling faster in developed European nations with awesome healthcare and maternity leave and free education. They’re falling in China. They’re falling in the post-Soviet world that is just barely industrial or post-industrial.  The only places where they are high and stable are in truly awful places that don’t respect rights at all or have functioning societies or are torn by war and famine. 
 

To the DNA thing, humans will invest in a high-intensity, fewer child strategy as a natural response to a society that rewards skills and education over simple labor, where childhood is extended to teen years and beyond (no farm labor or putting the daughter into service), where children almost certainly survive to adulthood. You get a delayed benefit of help in old age, but you’re not going to get more by increasing your family size. Beyond DNA, once women are given any sort of control over reproduction, even if it’s just her husband not beating her for trying to time sex— they will use it to improve their own quality of life.  
 

I have two kids and greatly enjoy them; my enjoyment would be less and not more if I had five. 
 

This does pose some interesting dilemmas on how to keep a post-industrial society functioning, this is not unique to American style capitalism and if anything China has a bigger demographic bomb cooking.  We need better social safety and medicine to help the people we have now, not to boost the birth rate. As people get more comfortable, they will have fewer kids and invest more in the ones they do have. 

[956 Worldwide 34422]

If you’re leaning on the USSR because Yuri Gagarin, and China— a place that is not communist and that has industrial espionage, patent theft, and “give us your tech or else you can’t trade here” as official policy- as centers of innovation, I don’t know what to respond. This is a level of unenlightenment that can only be borne from a complete disengagement with reality. 

[chainsaw 9837]

13 hours ago, troph said:

Their zero covid policy is absolutely healthcare and its imprisoned their people in their homes for months at a time. Their human rights record is very much tied to their healthcare policy. 

Zero covid is not tied to their mode of production.

[Snake Diggity 4614]

I want to respond to some of the comments I’ve seen regarding the choice of whether or not to have kids.  TLDR version: no one who doesn’t want kids should be shamed, even if the choice is the result of simply recognizing one’s own selfishness, and there are certainly a lot of negative things about having children, but in my experience having children is the most joyful and fulfilling experience in life.

Spoiler

I always assumed I would have kids, and eventually did.  The reasons for planning to have them, trying to have them, and why I am actually glad I had them are all different. 
 

As a kid I planned to have kids because that’s just what I assumed all people did.  I didn’t have much exposure to childless adults and the ones I was exposed to were presented as odd.  Of course, I had no idea what actually having children would be like.  I didn’t have younger siblings and was only very rarely put in situations where I was involved in childcare.

By the time I got married in my early 30s I had put more thought into why I wanted children: I wanted to pass on my genetics, I wanted someone who might help take care of me in my old age, and I (thought I) wanted the experience of raising children.

The experience of actually having children has obviously been dramatically different than my expectations, and much of it has been negative.  I was prepared for the lifestyle restrictions and financial impact, but I had NO idea how heavy the sense of responsibility would weigh on me.  There have been many times where I have legit wished I had never had kids.  And I have actively discouraged some younger people in my life from having kids.  That said, my life has become INFINITELY more fulfilling and joyful since I became a parent.  Parenting is an experience that I do not think can be replicated any other way, and it adds a depth to life that I think most childless people miss out on.

Opting out of having children due to infertility, pursuing other passions, or simply just recognizing that you are too selfish to be a good parent is fine and should never be the object of shame.  I think it’s a terrible idea for anyone to try to convince someone who says they don’t want kids that they’re wrong.  But the idea that any childless person has any clue what they’re missing is totally fucking stupid.

 

[chainsaw 9837]

8 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

If you’re leaning on the USSR because Yuri Gagarin, and China— a place that is not communist and that has industrial espionage, patent theft, and “give us your tech or else you can’t trade here” as official policy- as centers of innovation, I don’t know what to respond. This is a level of unenlightenment that can only be borne from a complete disengagement with reality. 

All I'm saying is capitalism doesn't have a monopoly on innovation. Nitpick all you want, but the point still stands. You don't need greed if you want innovation. Most cool shit is publicly funded anyway. The internet was invented by Al Gore with an assist from DARPA.

What the hell is "patent theft" anyway?

[chainsaw 9837]

21 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I want to respond to some of the comments I’ve seen regarding the choice of whether or not to have kids.  TLDR version: no one who doesn’t want kids should be shamed, even if the choice is the result of simply recognizing one’s own selfishness, and there are certainly a lot of negative things about having children, but in my experience having children is the most joyful and fulfilling experience in life.

  Hide contents

I always assumed I would have kids, and eventually did.  The reasons for planning to have them, trying to have them, and why I am actually glad I had them are all different. 
 

As a kid I planned to have kids because that’s just what I assumed all people did.  I didn’t have much exposure to childless adults and the ones I was exposed to were presented as odd.  Of course, I had no idea what actually having children would be like.  I didn’t have younger siblings and was only very rarely put in situations where I was involved in childcare.

By the time I got married in my early 30s I had put more thought into why I wanted children: I wanted to pass on my genetics, I wanted someone who might help take care of me in my old age, and I (thought I) wanted the experience of raising children.

The experience of actually having children has obviously been dramatically different than my expectations, and much of it has been negative.  I was prepared for the lifestyle restrictions and financial impact, but I had NO idea how heavy the sense of responsibility would weigh on me.  There have been many times where I have legit wished I had never had kids.  And I have actively discouraged some younger people in my life from having kids.  That said, my life has become INFINITELY more fulfilling and joyful since I became a parent.  Parenting is an experience that I do not think can be replicated any other way, and it adds a depth to life that I think most childless people miss out on.

Opting out of having children due to infertility, pursuing other passions, or simply just recognizing that you are too selfish to be a good parent is fine and should never be the object of shame.  I think it’s a terrible idea for anyone to try to convince someone who says they don’t want kids that they’re wrong.  But the idea that any childless person has any clue what they’re missing is totally fucking stupid.

 

Spoiler

Quote

the idea that any childless person has any clue what they’re missing is totally fucking stupid.

That is a good way of putting it.

 

[safe sex 11678]

"You shouldn't shame people for not wanting kids, but they're fucking idiots for not doing it" is how that reads to me, but maybe I'm just a little on edge about the whole thing

[956 Worldwide 34422]

9 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

All I'm saying is capitalism doesn't have a monopoly on innovation. Nitpick all you want, but the point still stands. You don't need greed if you want innovation. Most cool shit is publicly funded anyway. The internet was invented by Al Gore with an assist from DARPA.

What the hell is "patent theft" anyway?

You seem to be rapidly shifting from “there’s no evidence that market/capitalist economies innovate better than Communist economies”’ to “capitalism doesn’t have a monopoly on innovation.” Which no one has argued, but you got some damn good licks in on that scarecrow.